Viral load non-suppression among adolescents and youth living with HIV in South Africa.

Background: Despite the increased initiation and uptake of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa, some people living with HIV (PLHIV) who are on ART still have non-suppressed viral load (VL). Objectives: This study aimed to determine the prevalence of VL non-suppression among adolescents and youth (aged 12 years - 24 years) living with HIV and on ART in South Africa, as well as the factors associated with it. Method: Data from the 2017 South African national HIV prevalence, incidence, behaviour, and communication survey were analysed. The survey used a multistage-stratified cluster sampling design. A backward stepwise multivariable generalised linear model was used to identify factors associated with VL non-suppression. Results: The study included 340 participants aged 12 years - 24 years, with a median age of 21 (interquartile range [IQR]: 18-23). The proportion of adolescents and youth living with HIV and on ART with non-suppressed VL was 19.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 14.4-25.3). Approximately 60% of the participants were not on ART. The odds of VL non-suppression were significantly higher among youth aged 15 years - 19 years (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.63 [95% CI: 1.24-2.13], p = 0.001) and aged 20 years - 24 years (AOR = 1.22 [95% CI: 1.06-1.41], p = 0.005) compared to adolescents aged 12 years - 14 years. The odds were significantly lower among individuals of other races (AOR = 0.80 [95% CI: 0.69-0.92], p = 0.003) compared to black African people. Conclusion: Findings suggest a need for ART education and counselling as part of treatment support. In addition, the promotion of HIV awareness as part of strengthening the HIV treatment and prevention cascade. Contribution: The article showed the prevalence of VL non-suppression and associated factors among adolescents and youth.

Computer-aided detection of tuberculosis from chest radiographs in a tuberculosis prevalence survey in South Africa: external validation and modelled impacts of commercially available artificial intelligence software.

BACKGROUND: Computer-aided detection (CAD) can help identify people with active tuberculosis left undetected. However, few studies have compared the performance of commercially available CAD products for screening in high tuberculosis and high HIV settings, and there is poor understanding of threshold selection across products in different populations. We aimed to compare CAD products' performance, with further analyses on subgroup performance and threshold selection. METHODS: We evaluated 12 CAD products on a case-control sample of participants from a South African tuberculosis prevalence survey. Only those with microbiological test results were eligible. The primary outcome was comparing products' accuracy using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) against microbiological evidence. Threshold analyses were performed based on pre-defined criteria and across all thresholds. We conducted subgroup analyses including age, gender, HIV status, previous tuberculosis history, symptoms presence, and current smoking status. FINDINGS: Of the 774 people included, 516 were bacteriologically negative and 258 were bacteriologically positive. Diverse accuracy was noted: Lunit and Nexus had AUCs near 0·9, followed by qXR, JF CXR-2, InferRead, Xvision, and ChestEye (AUCs 0·8-0·9). XrayAME, RADIFY, and TiSepX-TB had AUC under 0·8. Thresholds varied notably across these products and different versions of the same products. Certain products (Lunit, Nexus, JF CXR-2, and qXR) maintained high sensitivity (>90%) across a wide threshold range while reducing the number of individuals requiring confirmatory diagnostic testing. All products generally performed worst in older individuals, people with previous tuberculosis, and people with HIV. Variations in thresholds, sensitivity, and specificity existed across groups and settings. INTERPRETATION: Several previously unevaluated products performed similarly to those evaluated by WHO. Thresholds differed across products and demographic subgroups. The rapid emergence of products and versions necessitates a global strategy to validate new versions and software to support CAD product and threshold selections. FUNDING: Government of Canada.

An HIV-1 risk assessment tool for women aged 15-49 in African countries: A pooled analysis across 15 nationally representative surveys.

BACKGROUND: Women in Africa disproportionately acquire HIV-1. Understanding which women are most likely to acquire HIV-1 can guide focused prevention with pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Our objective is to identify women at highest risk of HIV-1 and estimate PrEP efficiency at different sensitivity levels. METHODS: Nationally representative data were collected from 2015-2019 from 15 population-based household surveys. This analysis included women aged 15-49 who tested HIV-1 sero-negative or had recent HIV-1. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression models were fit with 28 variables to predict recent HIV-1. Models were trained on the full population and internally cross-validated. Performance was evaluated using area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and number needed to treat (NNT) with PrEP to avert one infection. RESULTS: Among 209,012 participants 248 had recent HIV-1 infection, representing 118 million women and 402,000 (95% CI: 309,000-495,000) new annual infections. Two variables were retained in the model: living in a subnational area with high HIV-1 viremia and having a sexual partner living outside the home. Full-population AUC was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76-0.84); cross-validated AUC was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.75-0.84). At a sensitivity of 33%, up to 130,000 cases could be averted if 7.9 million women were perfectly adherent to PrEP; NNT would be 61. At a sensitivity of 67%, up to 260,000 cases could be averted if 25.1 million women were perfectly adherent to PrEP; the NNT would be 96. CONCLUSIONS: This risk assessment tool was generalizable, predictive, and parsimonious with tradeoffs between reach and efficiency.

Substantial but spatially heterogeneous progress in male circumcision for HIV prevention in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of male HIV acquisition by 60%. Programmes to provide VMMCs for HIV prevention have been introduced in sub-Saharan African countries with high HIV burden. Traditional circumcision is also a long-standing male coming-of-age ritual, but practices vary considerably across populations. Accurate estimates of circumcision coverage by age, type, and time at subnational levels are required for planning and delivering VMMCs to meet targets and evaluating their impacts on HIV incidence. METHODS: We developed a Bayesian competing risks time-to-event model to produce region-age-time-type specific probabilities and coverage of male circumcision with probabilistic uncertainty. The model jointly synthesises data from household surveys and health system data on the number of VMMCs conducted. We demonstrated the model using data from five household surveys and VMMC programme data to produce estimates of circumcision coverage for 52 districts in South Africa between 2008 and 2019. RESULTS: Nationally, in 2008, 24.1% (95% CI: 23.4-24.8%) of men aged 15-49 were traditionally circumcised and 19.4% (18.9-20.0%) were medically circumcised. Between 2010 and 2019, 4.25 million VMMCs were conducted. Circumcision coverage among men aged 15-49 increased to 64.0% (63.2-64.9%) and medical circumcision coverage to 42% (41.3-43.0%). Circumcision coverage varied widely across districts, ranging from 13.4 to 86.3%. The average age of traditional circumcision ranged between 13 and 19 years, depending on local cultural practices. CONCLUSION: South Africa has made substantial, but heterogeneous, progress towards increasing medical circumcision coverage. Detailed subnational information on coverage and practices can guide programmes to identify unmet need to achieve national and international targets.

Voluntary medical male circumcision reduces the risk of male HIV acquisition. Programmes to provide circumcisions for HIV prevention have been introduced in sub-Saharan African countries with high HIV burden. Estimates of circumcision coverage are needed for planning and delivering circumcisions to meet targets and evaluate their impacts on HIV incidence. We developed a model to integrate date from both household surveys and health systems on the number of circumcisions conducted, and applied it to understand how the practices and coverage of circumcision are changing in South Africa. National circumcision coverage increased considerably between 2008 and 2019, however, there remains a substantial subnational variation across districts and age groups. Further progress is needed to reach national and international targets.

Seroprevalence survey of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody and associated factors in South Africa: Findings of the 2020-2021 population-based household survey.

Population-based serological testing is important to understand the epidemiology and estimate the true cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to inform public health interventions. This study reports findings of a national household population SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey in people 12 years and older in South Africa. This cross-sectional multi-stage random stratified cluster survey undertaken from November 2020 to June 2021 collected sociodemographic data, medical history, behavioural data, and blood samples from consenting participants. The samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using the Roche ElecsysAnti-SARS-CoV-2 chemiluminescence immunoassay (CLIA) Total Antibody Test. The survey data were weighted by age, race, sex, and province with final individual weights benchmarked against the 2020 mid-year population estimates and accounted for clustering. Descriptive statistics summarize the characteristics of participants and seroprevalence. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with seropositivity. From 13290 survey participants (median age 33 years, interquartile range (IQR) 23-46 years), SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 37.8% [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 35.4-40.4] and varied substantially across the country's nine provinces, and by sex, age and locality type. In the final adjusted model, the odds of seropositivity were higher in women than in men [aOR = 1.3 (95% CI: 1.0-1.6), p = 0.027], and those living with HIV (self-report) [aOR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.0-2.4), p = 0.031]. The odds were lower among those 50 years and older compared to adolescents 12-19 years old [aOR = 0.6 (95% CI: 0.5-0.8), p<0.001] and in those who did not attend events or gatherings [aOR = 0.7 (95% CI: 0.6-1.0), p = 0.020]. The findings help us understand the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 within different regions in a low-middle-income country. The survey highlights the higher risk of infection in women in South Africa likely driven by their home and workplace roles and also highlighted a need to actively target and include younger people in the COVID-19 response.

Heterogeneity in COVID-19 infection among older persons in South Africa: Evidence from national surveillance data.

Background: The 2021 World Health Organization study on the impact of COVID-19 on older people (≥60 years) in the African region highlighted the difficulties they faced as the virus spread across borders and dominated the way of life. These difficulties included disruptions to both essential health care services and social support, as well as disconnections from family and friends. Among those who contracted COVID-19, the risks of severe illness, complications, and mortality were highest among near-old and older persons. Objective: Recognizing that older persons are a diverse group including younger- and older-aged individuals, a study was conducted to track the epidemic among near-old (50-59 years) and older persons (≥60 years) in South Africa covering the 2 years since the epidemic emerged. Methods: Using a quantitative secondary research approach, data for near-old and older persons were extracted for comparative purposes. COVID-19 surveillance outcomes (confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) and vaccination data were compiled up to March 5th, 2022. COVID-19 surveillance outcomes were plotted by epidemiological week and epidemic waves to visualize the overall growth and trajectory of the epidemic. Means for each age-group and by COVID-19 waves, together with age-specific rates, were calculated. Results: Average numbers of new COVID-19 confirmed cases and hospitalizations were highest among people aged 50-59- and 60-69-years. However, average age-specific infection rates showed that people aged 50-59 years and ≥80 years were most vulnerable to contracting COVID-19. Age-specific hospitalization and death rates increased, with people aged ≥ 70 years most affected. The number of people vaccinated was slightly higher among people aged 50-59 years before Wave Three and during Wave Four, but higher among people aged ≥ 60 years during Wave Three. The findings suggest that uptake of vaccinations stagnated prior to and during Wave Four for both age groups. Discussion: Health promotion messages and COVID-19 epidemiological surveillance and monitoring are still needed, particularly for older persons living in congregate residential and care facilities. Prompt health-seeking should be encouraged, including testing and diagnosis as well as taking up vaccines and boosters, particularly for high-risk older persons.

Healthcare seeking patterns for TB symptoms: Findings from the first national TB prevalence survey of South Africa, 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Although tuberculosis (TB) symptoms have limited sensitivity they remain an important entry point into the TB care cascade. OBJECTIVES: To investigate self-reported healthcare seeking for TB symptoms in participants in a community-based survey. METHODS: We compared reasons for not seeking care in participants reporting ≥1 of four TB screening symptoms (cough, weight loss, night sweats, fever) in the first South African national TB prevalence survey (2017-2019). We used logistic regression analyses to identify sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with healthcare seeking. RESULTS: 5,168/35,191 (14.7%) survey participants reported TB symptoms and 3,442/5168 had not sought healthcare. 2,064/3,442(60.0%) participants intended to seek care, 912 (26.5%) regarded symptoms as benign, 399 (11.6%) reported access barriers(distance and cost), 36 (1.0%) took other medications and 20(0.6%) reported health system barriers. Of the 57/98 symptomatic participants diagnosed with bacteriologically confirmed TB who had not sought care: 38(66.7%) intended to do so, 8(14.0%) regarded symptoms as benign, and 6(10.5%) reported access barriers. Among these 98, those with unknown HIV status(OR 0.16 95% CI 0.03-0.82), p = 0.03 and those who smoked tobacco products(OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.17-0.89, p = 0.03) were significantly less likely to seek care. CONCLUSIONS: People with TB symptoms delayed seeking healthcare, many regarded symptoms as benign while others faced access barriers. Those with unknown HIV status were significantly less likely to seek care. Strengthening community-based TB awareness and screening programmes together with self-screening models could increase awareness of the significance of TB symptoms and contribute to improving healthcare seeking and enable many people with TB to enter the TB care cascade.

Adult HIV-1 incidence across 15 high-burden countries in sub-Saharan Africa from 2015 to 2019: a pooled analysis of nationally representative data.

BACKGROUND: Harmonised population-based surveys with recent HIV-1 infection testing algorithms permit pooled cross-sectional estimation of HIV incidence across multiple countries. We aimed to estimate adult HIV-1 incidence rates and number of new infections by sex, age, and subregion in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We analysed data from 13 Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys and two additional population-based surveys done between 2015 and 2019 in 15 sub-Saharan African countries. HIV-seropositive samples from adults aged 15-59 years were tested for recent HIV-1 infection by use of an algorithm consisting of the HIV-1 limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay, HIV-1 viral load, and qualitative detection of antiretroviral agents. Data were pooled across countries; sampling weights were incorporated to represent all adults in the 15 national populations. Analyses accounted for the complex sample designs. HIV incidence rates, incidence rate differences, and number of new annual infections were estimated. FINDINGS: Among 445 979 adults sampled, 382 had recent HIV-1 infection. The estimated HIV-1 incidence rate was 3·3 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 2·6-4·0) among women and 2·0 per 1000 person-years (1·2-2·7) among men (incidence rate difference 1·3 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 0·3-2·3). Among adults aged 15-24 years, the incidence rate was higher for women (3·5 per 1000 person-years) than men (1·2 per 1000 person-years; difference 2·3, 95% CI 0·8-3·8), but infection rates were similar between sexes in all other age groups. The HIV-1 incidence rate was 7·4 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 5·0-9·7) in southern sub-Saharan Africa, 2·3 per 1000 person-years (1·7-2·9) in the eastern subregion, and 0·9 per 1000 person-years (0·6-1·2) in the western and central subregion. 689 000 (95% CI 546 000-833 000) new HIV cases were estimated annually among the 265 million susceptible adults (61·6% in women). INTERPRETATION: HIV-1 incidence and number of new infections differed by age, sex, and subregion. Approaches for risk stratification are needed to guide comprehensive HIV-1 prevention. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Social distancing behaviour: avoidance of physical contact and related determinants among South Africans: twelve days into the COVID-19 lockdown.

Social distancing behaviour is a primary preventive measure for reducing COVID-19 transmission. Improved understanding of factors associated with adherence to social distancing is vital for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 in South Africa. The study assessed adherence to social distancing and its associated factors during the state-implemented lockdown in South Africa. Data was analysed from a large-scale public survey conducted in South Africa from 8 to 29 April 2020, which was administered online and telephonically. Invitations to participate were distributed widely on local websites and social media networks, including on a data-free platform. Adherence to social distancing was measured by self-report of having engaged in close physical contact with someone outside the home. Simple and multiple logistic regression models examined the association between social distancing and potential explanatory variables. Of the 17,586 participants, 9.2% came into close physical contact with a person outside their home by hugging, kissing, or shaking hands during the past 7 days. The odds of coming into close physical contact with other people were significantly higher for males, students, and those with incorrect knowledge on physical distancing, angry attitudes about the lockdown, lack of confidence in the government response, high-risk perception, movement out of the local area, travelling to shops using public transport, households with communal water facilities and higher household size. The 25-59-year olds compared to 18-24-year olds, and the White and Indian/Asian compared to the African population groups had significantly lower odds of close physical contact with others outside the home. The study identifies subgroups of individuals for whom public health interventions to improve adherence to social distancing should be prioritised and tailored. Interventions and policies should take cognisance of the social determinants of health as well as culturally accepted greeting practices like hand shaking.

The HIV Epidemic in South Africa: Key Findings from 2017 National Population-Based Survey.

South Africa has the largest number of people living with HIV worldwide. South Africa has implemented five population-based HIV prevalence surveys since 2002 aimed at understanding the dynamics and the trends of the epidemic. This paper presents key findings from the fifth HIV prevalence, incidence, and behaviour survey conducted in 2017 following policy, programme, and epidemic change since the prior survey was conducted in 2012. A cross-sectional population-based household survey collected behavioural and biomedical data on all members of the eligible households. A total of 39,132 respondents from 11,776 households were eligible to participate, of whom 93.6% agreed to be interviewed, and 61.1% provided blood specimens. The provided blood specimens were used to determine HIV status, HIV incidence, viral load, exposure to antiretroviral treatment, and HIV drug resistance. Overall HIV incidence among persons aged 2 years and above was 0.48% which translates to an estimated 231,000 new infections in 2017. HIV prevalence was 14.0% translating to 7.9 million people living with HIV. Antiretroviral (ARV) exposure was 62.3%, with the lowest exposure among those aged 15 to 24 years (39.9%) with 10% lower ARV coverage among males compared to females. Viral suppression among those on treatment was high (87.3%), whilst HIV population viral load suppression was much lower (62.3%). In terms of risk behaviours, 13.6% of youth reported having had an early sexual debut (first sex before the age of 15 years), with more males reporting having done so (19.5%) than females (7.6%). Age-disparate relationships, defined as having a sexual partner 5+ years different from oneself,) among adolescents were more common among females (35.8%) than males (1.5%). Self-reported multiple sexual partnerships (MSPs), defined as having more than one sexual partner in the previous 12 months, were more commonly reported by males (25.5%) than females (9.0%). Condom use at last sexual encounter was highest among males than females. Three quarters (75.2%) of people reported they had ever been tested for HIV, with more females (79.3%) having had done so than males (70.9%). Two-thirds of respondents (66.8%) self-reported having tested for HIV in the past 12 months. Finally, 61.6% of males in the survey self-reported as having been circumcised, with circumcision being more common among youth aged 15-24 years (70.2%), Black Africans (68.9%), and those living in both rural informal (tribal) areas (65%) and urban areas (61.9%). Slightly more (51.2%) male circumcisions were reported to have occurred in a medical setting than in traditional settings (44.8%), with more young males aged 15-24 (62.6%) and men aged 25-49 (51.5%) reporting to have done so compared to most men aged 50 and older (57.1%) who reported that they had undergone circumcision in a traditional setting. The results of this survey show that strides have been made in controlling the HIV epidemic, especially in the reduction of HIV incidence, HIV testing, and treatment. Although condom use at last sex act remains unchanged, there continue to be some challenges with the lack of significant behaviour change as people, especially youth, continue to engage in risky behaviour and delay treatment initiation. Therefore, there is a need to develop or scale up targeted intervention programmes to increase HIV testing further and put more people living with HIV on treatment as well as prevent risky behaviours that put young people at risk of HIV infection.

Is There Risk Compensation among HIV Infected Youth and Adults 15 Years and Older on Antiretroviral Treatment in South Africa? Findings from the 2017 National HIV Prevalence, Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey.

In this paper, risk compensation among individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART), using the 2017 South African national survey on HIV, is explored. A multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling approach was used to realize 11,130 participants 15 years and older. Logistic regression analysis assessed the association between multiple sexual partners, condom use at last sexual encounter, consistency of condom usage and potential explanatory variables using HIV status and ART exposure as a mediator variable. HIV positive participants who were aware and on ART were less likely to have multiple sexual partners, and less likely not to use a condom at last sex compared to HIV positive participants who were aware but not on ART. The odds of reporting multiple sexual partners were significantly lower among older age groups, females, non-Black Africans, and rural settings, and higher among those with tertiary level education, and risky alcohol users. The odds of no condom use at last sexual encounter were more likely among older age groups, females, other race groups, and less likely among those with secondary level education. The odds of inconsistent condom use were more likely among older age groups, females, and other race groups, and less likely among those with tertiary level education, high risk and hazardous alcohol users. Risk compensation is not apparent among HIV infected adults who are on ART. Risk groups that should receive tailored interventions to reduced risky sexual behaviours were identified.

Prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in South Africa, 2017-19: a multistage, cluster-based, cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains an important clinical and public health issue in South Africa, which has one of the highest tuberculosis burdens in the world. We aimed to estimate the burden of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis among people aged 15 years or older in South Africa. METHODS: This multistage, cluster-based, cross-sectional survey included eligible residents (age ≥15 years, who had slept in a house for ≥10 nights in the preceding 2 weeks) in 110 clusters nationally (cluster size of 500 people; selected by probability proportional-to-population size sampling). Participants completed face-to-face symptom questionnaires (for cough, weight loss, fever, and night sweats) and manually read digital chest X-ray screening. Screening was recorded as positive if participants had at least one symptom or an abnormal chest X-ray suggestive of tuberculosis, or a combination thereof. Sputum samples from participants who were screen-positive were tested by the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assay (first sample) and Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube culture (second sample), with optional HIV testing. Participants with a positive Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex culture were considered positive for bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis; when culture was not positive, participants with a positive Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra result with an abnormal chest X-ray suggestive of active tuberculosis and without current or previous tuberculosis were considered positive for bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. FINDINGS: Between Aug 15, 2017, and July 28, 2019, 68 771 people were enumerated from 110 clusters, with 53 250 eligible to participate in the survey, of whom 35 191 (66·1%) participated. 9066 (25·8%) of 35 191 participants were screen-positive and 234 (0·7%) were identified as having bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. Overall, the estimated prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis was 852 cases (95% CI 679-1026) per 100 000 population; the prevalence was highest in people aged 35-44 years (1107 cases [95% CI 703-1511] per 100 000 population) and those aged 65 years or older (1104 cases [680-1528] per 100 000 population). The estimated prevalence was approximately 1·6 times higher in men than in women (1094 cases [95% CI 835-1352] per 100 000 population vs 675 cases [494-855] per 100 000 population). 135 (57·7%) of 234 participants with tuberculosis screened positive by chest X-ray only, 16 (6·8%) by symptoms only, and 82 (35·9%) by both. 55 (28·8%) of 191 participants with tuberculosis with known HIV status were HIV-positive. INTERPRETATION: Pulmonary tuberculosis prevalence in this survey was high, especially in men. Despite the ongoing burden of HIV, many participants with tuberculosis in this survey did not have HIV. As more than half of the participants with tuberculosis had an abnormal chest X-ray without symptoms, prioritising chest X-ray screening could substantially increase case finding. FUNDING: Global Fund, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID.

Race, place, and HIV: The legacies of apartheid and racist policy in South Africa.

Black South Africans accounted for 6.2 out of 6.4 million people living with HIV in South Africa in 2012, highlighting extreme racial disparities in HIV infection. These racial disparities are the result of structural and historical factors, specifically, the racist policies which were facilitated by segregation before, during, and after Apartheid. First, we describe the theoretical context of how racist policies and segregation are linked to HIV prevalence. Next, using data from a 2012 national survey of South Africans (SABSSM IV) and Statistics South Africa (StatsSA), we describe the race-specific geospatial distribution of HIV in South Africa, provide empirical evidence for the impact of Apartheid on important risk factors for HIV infection, and describe the relationship between these risk factors and HIV within racial groups. Using multilevel logistic regression, we find that segregation increases the odds of HIV infection among Black South Africans, even after adjusting for many covariates which are sometimes blamed, in place of structural factors, for a higher HIV prevalence in Black South Africans. We found that the estimated odds of infection in the most segregated municipality was 1.95 (95% CI: 1.15, 3.32) times the odds of infection in the least segregated municipality for Black South Africans. In addition to segregation, we also find other covariates to be differentially associated with HIV infection depending on race, such as gender, age, and sexual behavior. We also find that the HIV infection odds ratio comparing Black and Coloured (i.e., multiple ethnic groups with mixed ancestries from Africa, Asia, and Europe) South Africans varies over space. These results continue to build evidence for the influence of structural and historical factors on the modern geospatial and demographic distribution of HIV.

The Effect of HIV Programs in South Africa on National HIV Incidence Trends, 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have shown HIV incidence declines at a population level in several African countries. However, these studies have not directly quantified the extent to which incidence declines are attributable to different HIV programs. METHODS: We calibrated a mathematical model of the South African HIV epidemic to age- and sex-specific data from antenatal surveys, household surveys, and death registration, using a Bayesian approach. The model was also parameterized using data on self-reported condom use, voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), HIV testing, and antiretroviral treatment (ART). Model estimates of HIV incidence were compared against the incidence rates that would have been expected had each program not been implemented. RESULTS: The model estimated incidence in 15-49 year olds of 0.84% (95% CI: 0.75% to 0.96%) at the start of 2019. This represents a 62% reduction (95% CI: 55% to 66%) relative to 2000, a 47% reduction (95% CI: 42% to 51%) relative to 2010, and a 73% reduction (95% CI: 68% to 77%) relative to the incidence that would have been expected in 2019 in the absence of any interventions. The reduction in incidence in 2019 because of interventions was greatest for ART and condom promotion, with VMMC and behavior change after HIV testing having relatively modest impacts. HIV program impacts differed significantly by age and sex, with condoms and VMMC having greatest impact in youth, and overall incidence reductions being greater in men than in women. CONCLUSIONS: HIV incidence in South Africa has declined substantially since 2000, with ART and condom promotion contributing most significantly to this decline.

HIV Prevalence and Associated Factors Among Men in South Africa 30 Years into the Epidemic: The Fifth Nationwide Cross-Sectional Survey.

We investigated HIV prevalence and associated factors among men ≥ 15 years in South Africa using data from a 2017 nationwide cross-sectional survey. HIV prevalence was 10.5% among 6 646 participants. Prevalence increased from 4.1% in the younger men (15-24 years), 12.5% in young men (25-34 years) to 12.7% in older men (≥ 35 years). Odds of being infected with HIV were lower among younger men who had secondary level education and those who reported poor/fair self-rated health. Young and older men of other race groups had lower odds of HIV infection. Odds of infection were lower among young men who had moderate/high exposure to HIV communication programmes. Men not aware of their HIV status had higher odds of HIV infection, including older men who never married. Improved access to education, behavioral change programmes, and awareness of HIV status are necessary to reduce the risk of HIV infection among Black African men.

Association Between ART Adherence and Mental Health: Results from a National HIV Sero-Behavioural Survey in South Africa.

This paper assesses the levels of antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and mental health distress among study participants in a national behavioural HIV-sero prevalence study South Africa. The study was a cross-sectional population-based multi-stage stratified cluster random survey, (SABSSM V, 2017). Structured questionnaires were used to collect information on socio-demographics, HIV knowledge, perceptions, HIV testing and HIV treatment history. Study participants were tested for HIV infection, antiretroviral use, viral suppression, and ART drug resistance. A total of 2155 PLHIV aged 15 years or older who were on ART were included in the study. Incidence of either moderate or severe mental health distress was 19.7%. Self-reported ART adherence among study participants with no, mild, moderate, or severe mental distress was 82%, 83%, 86% and 78%, respectively. The adjusted odds ratio for ART non-adherence was 0.58 (95% CI 0.24; 1.40) for mild mental distress, 0.82 (95% CI 0.35; 1.91) for moderate mental distress and 2.19 (95% CI 1.14; 4.19) for severe mental distress groups compared to the no mental health distress group. The other factors that were associated with ART non-adherence in adjusted models included education level, alcohol use and province/region of residence. The study revealed that mental health remains a challenge to ART adherence in South Africa. To improve ART adherence, HIV continuum of care programs should include screening for mental health among people living with HIV.

Understanding the differential impacts of COVID-19 among hospitalised patients in South Africa for equitable response.

BACKGROUND: There are limited in-depth analyses of COVID-19 differential impacts, especially in resource-limited settings such as South Africa (SA). OBJECTIVES: To explore context-specific sociodemographic heterogeneities in order to understand the differential impacts of COVID-19. METHODS: Descriptive epidemiological COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality data were drawn from daily hospital surveillance data, National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) update reports (6 March 2020 - 24 January 2021) and the Eastern Cape Daily Epidemiological Report (as of 24 March 2021). We examined hospitalisations and mortality by sociodemographics (age using 10-year age bands, sex and race) using absolute numbers, proportions and ratios. The data are presented using tables received from the NICD, and charts were created to show trends and patterns. Mortality rates (per 100 000 population) were calculated using population estimates as a denominator for standardisation. Associations were determined through relative risks (RRs), 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and p-values <0.001. RESULTS: Black African females had a significantly higher rate of hospitalisation (8.7% (95% CI 8.5 - 8.9)) compared with coloureds, Indians and whites (6.7% (95% CI 6.0 - 7.4), 6.3% (95% CI 5.5 - 7.2) and 4% (95% CI 3.5 - 4.5), respectively). Similarly, black African females had the highest hospitalisation rates at a younger age category of 30 - 39 years (16.1%) compared with other race groups. Whites were hospitalised at older ages than other races, with a median age of 63 years. Black Africans were hospitalised at younger ages than other race groups, with a median age of 52 years. Whites were significantly more likely to die at older ages compared with black Africans (RR 1.07; 95% CI 1.06 - 1.08) or coloureds (RR 1.44; 95% CI 1.33 - 1.54); a similar pattern was found between Indians and whites (RR 1.59; 95% CI 1.47 - 1.73). Women died at older ages than men, although they were admitted to hospital at younger ages. Among black Africans and coloureds, females (50.9 deaths per 100 000 and 37 per 100 000, respectively) had a higher COVID-19 death rate than males (41.2 per 100 000 and 41.5 per 100 000, respectively). However, among Indians and whites, males had higher rates of deaths than females. The ratio of deaths to hospitalisations by race and gender increased with increasing age. In each age group, this ratio was highest among black Africans and lowest among whites. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed the heterogeneous nature of COVID-19 impacts in SA. Existing socioeconomic inequalities appear to shape COVID-19 impacts, with a disproportionate effect on black Africans and marginalised and low socioeconomic groups. These differential impacts call for considered attention to mitigating the health disparities among black Africans.

Trends and correlates of HIV prevalence among adolescents in South Africa: evidence from the 2008, 2012 and 2017 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour surveys.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents are at increased risk of HIV infection compared to other age groups. There is an urgent need for strategic information that will inform programmes to reduce risk and vulnerability to HIV and reverse the pattern of increasing HIV infection as they transition to adulthood. This paper analysed trends and factors associated with HIV prevalence among adolescents in South Africa using the national HIV population-based household surveys conducted in 2008, 2012 and 2017. METHODS: All three surveys used a multistage cross-sectional design. A trend analysis was conducted to assess the differences in HIV prevalence and covariates overtime using P-trend Chi-squared statistic. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to determine factors associated with HIV prevalence. RESULTS: Overall there was a significant increase in HIV prevalence among adolescents aged 12-19 years from 3.0% (n = 2892) in 2008 to 3.2% (n = 4829) in 2012 and 4.1% (n = 3937) in 2017 (p = 0.031). The odds of being HIV positive among adolescents aged 12-19 years was significantly higher among females [AOR = 2.24; 95% CI (1.73-2.91); p < 0.001] than males, those residing in KwaZulu-Natal province [AOR = 2.01; 95% CI (1.-3.99); p = 0.027] than Northern Cape, and those who did not attend an educational institution and were unemployed [AOR = 2.66; 95% CI (1.91-3.67); p < 0.001] compared to those attending an educational institution. The odds were significantly lower among Whites [AOR = 0.29; 95% CI (0.09-0.93); p = 0.037], Coloureds [AOR = 0.21; 95% CI (0.11-0.37); p ≤ 0.001] and Indian/Asian [AOR = 0.08; 95% CI (0.02-0.34); p = 0.001] population groups than Black Africans. CONCLUSION: The observed increasing trend and gender disparities in HIV prevalence suggests an urgent need for age appropriate and gender specific HIV interventions tailored and targeted at identified drivers of HIV infection among adolescents.