Validation of a fall rate prediction model for community-dwelling older adults: a combined analysis of three cohorts with 1850 participants.

BACKGROUND: Fragility fractures in older adults are often caused by fall events. The estimation of an expected fall rate might improve the identification of individuals at risk of fragility fractures and improve fracture prediction. METHODS: A combined analysis of three previously developed fall rate models using individual participant data (n = 1850) was conducted using the methodology of a two-stage meta-analysis to derive an overall model. These previously developed models included the fall history as a predictor recorded as the number of experienced falls within 12 months, treated as a factor variable with the levels 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and ≥ 5 falls. In the first stage, negative binomial regression models for every cohort were fit. In the second stage, the coefficients were compared and used to derive overall coefficients with a random effect meta-analysis. Additionally, external validation was performed by applying the three data sets to the models derived in the first stage. RESULTS: The coefficient estimates for the prior number of falls were consistent among the three studies. Higgin's I2 as heterogeneity measure ranged from 0 to 55.39%. The overall coefficient estimates indicated that the expected fall rate increases with an increasing number of previous falls. External model validation revealed that the prediction errors for the data sets were independent of the model to which they were applied. CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that the fall history treated as a factor variable is a robust predictor of estimating future falls among different cohorts.

Pediatric Patients with Eosinophilic Esophagitis and Their Parents Identify Symptoms as the Most Important Treatment Outcome.

INTRODUCTION: Given the lack of data, we aimed to explore which therapeutic endpoints pediatric patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) and their parents consider to be relevant. METHODS: We created an educational brochure on EoE and a questionnaire, both of which were content-validated by pediatric patients and parents. Validated documents were sent to 112 patients and parents. They ranked the importance (5 levels) of short (during next 3 months) and long-term (≥1 year) treatment effect on symptoms, quality of life, endoscopic inflammation, stricture formation, histological inflammation, and fibrosis. RESULTS: A total of 45 parents and 30 pediatric patients ≥11 years completed the questionnaires. Pediatric patients identified improvement in the following domains as most important in the short- and long-term, respectively: symptoms (73% vs. 77%), QoL (53% vs. 57%), histologic inflammation (47% vs. 50%), histologic fibrosis (40% vs. 33%), endoscopic inflammation (47% vs. 40%), and strictures (33% vs. 40%). Parents of children ≥11 years old classified improvement in the following domains as most important in the short- and long-term, respectively: symptoms (70% vs. 83%), QoL (63% vs. 80%), histologic inflammation (67% vs. 77%), histologic fibrosis (47% vs. 63%), endoscopic inflammation (77% vs. 80%), and strictures (40% vs. 53%). Agreement between caregiver and children on the short-term importance of treatment outcomes was as follows: symptoms (77%), QoL (40%), histologic inflammation and fibrosis (47% and 43%), endoscopic inflammation and strictures (50% and 40%). CONCLUSION: Pediatric patients and parents attributed most importance to improvement in symptoms and QoL. Agreement between parents and patients regarding therapy goals is limited.

A cohort analysis of residential radon exposure and melanoma incidence in Switzerland.

Radon is a radioactive noble gas found in Earth's crust. It accumulates in buildings, and accounts for approximately half the ionizing radiation dose received by humans. The skin is considerably exposed to ionizing radiation from radon. We aimed to evaluate the association between residential radon exposure and melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma incidence. The study included 1.3 million adults (20 years and older) from the Swiss National Cohort who were residents of the cantons of Vaud, Neuchâtel, Valais, Geneva, Fribourg, and Ticino at the study baseline (December 04, 2000). Cases of primary tumours of skin (melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma) were identified using data from cantonal cancer registries. Long-term residential radon and ambient solar ultraviolet radiation exposures were assigned to each individual's address at baseline. Cox proportional hazard models with age as time scale, adjusted for canton, socioeconomic position, demographic data available in the census, and outdoor occupation were applied. Total and age specific effects were calculated, in the full population and in non-movers, and potential effect modifiers were tested. In total 4937 incident cases of melanoma occurred during an average 8.9 years of follow-up. Across all ages, no increased risk of malignant melanoma or squamous cell carcinoma incidence in relation to residential radon was found. An association was only observed for melanoma incidence in the youngest age group of 20-29 year olds (1.68 [95% CI: 1.29, 2.19] 100 Bq/m3 radon). This association was mainly in women, and in those with low socio-economic position. Residential radon exposure might be a relevant risk factor for melanoma, especially for young adults. However, the results must be interpreted with caution as this finding is based on a relatively small number of melanoma cases. Accumulation of radon is preventable, and measures to reduce exposure and communicate the risks remain important to convey to the public.

Incidence and Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Infections in People With Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia.

Objectives: There is little data on SARS-CoV-2 in people with rare chronic diseases. We studied incidence and severity of SARS-CoV-2 and its risk factors in people with primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) from May 2020 to May 2022. Methods: We used self-reported questionnaire data from the COVID-PCD study at baseline or during weekly follow-ups. We studied factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 and symptoms using Poisson regression. Results: By May 2022, 728 people participated (40% male, median age 27 years; range 0-85). 87 (12%) reported SARS-CoV-2 at baseline or during follow-up and 62 people reported an incident SARS-CoV-2 infection during 716 person-years (incidence rate 9 per 100 person years). The strongest predictors for reporting SARS-CoV-2 were exposure during periods where Delta variant was dominant (IRR 4.52, 95% CI 1.92-10.6) and Omicron variants (IRR 13.3, 95% CI 5.2-33.8). Severity was mild; 12 (14%) were asymptomatic and 75 (86%) had symptoms among whom four were hospitalized. None needed intensive care and nobody died. Conclusion: The COVID-PCD study participants did not have a higher incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections nor higher risk of severe COVID-19 disease than people from the general population.

Systematic review and meta-analysis use in the field of spinal cord injury research: A bibliometric analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To subvert issues of low sample sizes and high attrition rates and generate epidemiologically-sound evidence, collaborative research-through international consortia and multi-centric studies-and meta-analysis approaches are encouraged in spinal cord injury (SCI) research. We investigated the use of systematic reviews and meta-analyses (SRMA) methodology in SCI research and evaluated the quality of evidence across publications we identified. METHODS: We searched the Web of Science Core Collection database by topic without time or language restrictions through 16 December 2022. We identified additional relevant articles through Embase.com. SRMA including human and animal SCI populations were eligible for inclusion. We analyzed data using Bibliometrix and VOSviewer. We used the JBI tool (former Joanna Briggs Institute) to assess methodological quality of a subset of 50 randomly selected articles. RESULTS: We based our analysis on data from 1'224 documents authored by 5'237 scholars and published in 424 sources between 1985 and 2022. The use of SRMA methodology in the field gained momentum in 2009 and a steady increase followed with an annual growth rate of ≈15%. Our findings indicate major research themes in the field include recovery, SCI management, rehabilitation, and quality of life. Over the past 30 years there has been a shift from SRMA concerning functional recovery, secondary health complications, and quality of life toward biomarkers and neuro-regeneration. The major methodological issues across articles we evaluated included opaquely described search strategies, poorly reported critical appraisals, and insufficiently addressing publication bias. In addition, only one-fifth of articles reported review protocol registration. CONCLUSIONS: : Our bibliometric analysis clearly shows a rapid increase of SRMA applications in SCI research. We discuss the most important methodological concerns we identified among a randomly selected set of articles and provide guidance for improving adherence to methodological and reporting SRMA guidelines.

Hierarchical contribution of individual lifestyle factors and their interactions on adenomatous and serrated polyp risk.

BACKGROUND: Individual colorectal polyp risk factors are well characterized; however, insights into their pathway-specific interactions are scarce. We aimed to identify the impact of individual risk factors and their joint effects on adenomatous (AP) and serrated polyp (SP) risk. METHODS: We collected information on 363 lifestyle and metabolic parameters from 1597 colonoscopy participants, resulting in over 521,000 data points. We used multivariate statistics and machine-learning approaches to assess associations of single variables and their interactions with AP and SP risk. RESULTS: Individual factors and their interactions showed common and polyp subtype-specific effects. Abdominal obesity, high body mass index (BMI), metabolic syndrome, and red meat consumption globally increased polyp risk. Age, gender, and western diet associated with AP risk, while smoking was associated with SP risk. CRC family history was associated with advanced adenomas and diabetes with sessile serrated lesions. Regarding lifestyle factor interactions, no lifestyle or dietary adjustments mitigated the adverse smoking effect on SP risk, whereas its negative effect was exacerbated by alcohol in the conventional pathway. The adverse effect of red meat on SP risk was not ameliorated by any factor, but was further exacerbated by western diet along the conventional pathway. No modification of any factor reduced the negative impact of metabolic syndrome on AP risk, whereas increased fatless fish or meat substitutes' intake mitigated its effect on SP risk. CONCLUSIONS: Individual risk factors and their interactions for polyp formation along the adenomatous and serrated pathways are strongly heterogeneous. Our findings may facilitate tailored lifestyle recommendations and contribute to a better understanding of how risk factor combinations impact colorectal carcinogenesis.

Sensing the (digital) pulse. Future steps for improving the secondary use of data for research in Switzerland.

Introduction: Ensuring that the health data infrastructure and governance permits an efficient secondary use of data for research is a policy priority for many countries. Switzerland is no exception and many initiatives have been launched to improve its health data landscape. The country now stands at an important crossroad, debating the right way forward. We aimed to explore which specific elements of data governance can facilitate - from ethico-legal and socio-cultural perspectives - the sharing and reuse of data for research purposes in Switzerland. Methods: A modified Delphi methodology was used to collect and structure input from a panel of experts via successive rounds of mediated interaction on the topic of health data governance in Switzerland. Results: First, we suggested techniques to facilitate data sharing practices, especially when data are shared between researchers or from healthcare institutions to researchers. Second, we identified ways to improve the interaction between data protection law and the reuse of data for research, and the ways of implementing informed consent in this context. Third, we put forth ideas on policy changes, such as the steps necessary to improve coordination between different actors of the data landscape and to win the defensive and risk-adverse attitudes widespread when it comes to health data. Conclusions: After having engaged with these topics, we highlighted the importance of focusing on non-technical aspects to improve the data-readiness of a country (e.g., attitudes of stakeholders involved) and of having a pro-active debate between the different institutional actors, ethico-legal experts and society at large.

Development of a personalized fall rate prediction model in community-dwelling older adults: a negative binomial regression modelling approach.

BACKGROUND: Around a third of adults aged 65 and older fall every year, resulting in unintentional injuries in 30% of the cases. Fractures are a frequent consequence of falls, primarily caused in individuals with decreased bone strength who are unable to cushion their falls. Accordingly, an individual's number of experienced falls has a direct influence on fracture risk. The aim of this study was the development of a statistical model to predict future fall rates using personalized risk predictors. METHODS: In the prospective cohort GERICO, several fall risk factor variables were collected in community-dwelling older adults at two time-points four years apart (T1 and T2). Participants were asked how many falls they experienced during 12 months prior to the examinations. Rate ratios for the number of reported falls at T2 were computed for age, sex, reported fall number at T1, physical performance tests, physical activity level, comorbidity and medication number with negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: The analysis included 604 participants (male: 122, female: 482) with a median age of 67.90 years at T1. The mean number of falls per person was 1.04 and 0.70 at T1 and T2. The number of reported falls at T1 as a factor variable was the strongest risk factor with an unadjusted rate ratio [RR] of 2.60 for 3 falls (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.54 to 4.37), RR of 2.63 (95% CI 1.06 to 6.54) for 4 falls, and RR of 10.19 (95% CI 6.25 to 16.60) for 5 and more falls, when compared to 0 falls. The cross-validated prediction error was comparable for the global model including all candidate variables and the univariable model including prior fall numbers at T1 as the only predictor. CONCLUSION: In the GERICO cohort, the prior fall number as single predictor information for a personalized fall rate is as good as when including further available fall risk factors. Specifically, individuals who have experienced three and more falls are expected to fall multiple times again. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN11865958, 13/07/2016, retrospectively registered.

The Swiss neighbourhood index of socioeconomic position: update and re-validation.

BACKGROUND: The widely used Swiss neighbourhood index of socioeconomic position (Swiss-SEP 1) was based on data from the 2000 national census on rent, household head education and occupation, and crowding. It may now be out of date. METHODS: We created a new index (Swiss-SEP 2) based on the 2012-2015 yearly micro censuses that have replaced the decennial house-to-house census in Switzerland since 2010. We used principal component analysis on neighbourhood-aggregated variables and standardised the index. We also created a hybrid version (Swiss-SEP 3), with updated values for neighbourhoods centred on buildings constructed after the year 2000 and original values for the remaining neighbourhoods. RESULTS: A total of 1.54 million neighbourhoods were included. With all three indices, the mean yearly equivalised household income increased from around 52,000 to 90,000 CHF from the lowest to the highest index decile. Analyses of mortality were based on 33.6 million person-years of follow-up. The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios of all-cause mortality comparing areas in the lowest Swiss-SEP decile with areas of the highest decile were 1.39 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.36-1.41), 1.31 (1.29-1.33) and 1.34 (1.32-1.37) using the old, new and hybrid indices, respectively. DISCUSSION: The Swiss-SEP indices capture area-based SEP at a high resolution and allow the study of SEP when individual-level SEP data are missing or area-level effects are of interest. The hybrid version (Swiss-SEP 3) maintains high spatial resolution while adding information on new neighbourhoods. The index will continue to be useful for Switzerland's epidemiological and public health research.

A prospective cohort analysis of residential radon and UV exposures and malignant melanoma mortality in the Swiss population.

BACKGROUND: Radon is a radioactive noble gas naturally found in the earth crust that can accumulate in buildings. In addition to lung cancer, alpha particles emitted by radon may contribute to the risk of skin cancer. We evaluated the association between residential radon exposure and skin cancer mortality, over a fifteen year period, taking residential ultra-violet (UV) exposure into account. METHODS: We included 4.9 million adults from the Swiss National Cohort. Hazard ratios for melanoma mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models (20+ years old; follow-up 2001-2015). Long-term modelled residential radon and ambient UV exposures were assigned at baseline, and included together in the Cox models. With age as a time scale, models were adjusted for calendar time, sex, marital status, education, mother tongue, socioeconomic position, and occupational environment with potential for UV exposure. Age specific hazard ratios were derived. Effect modification, sensitivity analyses and the shape of the exposure response, as well as secondary analysis using other outcome definitions, were investigated. RESULTS: During follow-up (average of 13.6 years), 3,979 melanoma deaths were observed. Associations declined with age, with an adjusted hazard ratio per 100 Bq/m3 radon at age 60 of 1.10 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.23). The dose-response showed an approximate linear trend between the minimum and mean radon exposure of 75 Bq/m3. Having outdoor occupation significantly increased the risk of melanoma mortality associated with UV exposure compared to indoor jobs. Analysis restricted to the last five years of follow-up showed similar results compared to the main analysis. Similar associations were found for mortality from melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer combined. CONCLUSION: With double the follow-up time, this study confirmed the previously observed association between residential radon exposure and melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer mortality in Switzerland. Accumulation of radon indoors is preventable and of public health importance.

A quantitative synthesis study on body mass index and associated factors among adult men and women in Switzerland.

Excess weight is caused by multiple factors and has increased sharply in Switzerland since the 1990s. Its consequences represent a major challenge for Switzerland, both in terms of health and the economy. Until now, there has been no cross-dataset overview study on excess weight in adults in Switzerland. Therefore, our aim was to conduct the first synthesis on excess weight in Switzerland. We included all existing nationwide Swiss studies (eight total), which included information on body mass index (BMI). Mixed multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the associations between different socio-demographic, lifestyle cofactors and the World Health Organization (WHO) categories for BMI. Along with lifestyle factors, socio-demographic factors were among the strongest determinants of BMI. In addition, self-rated health status was significantly lower for underweight, pre-obese and obese men and women than for normal weight persons. The present study is the first to synthesise all nationwide evidence on the importance of several socio-demographic and lifestyle factors as risk factors for excess weight. In particular, the highlighted importance of lifestyle factors for excess weight opens up the opportunity for further public health interventions.

Public preferences towards data management and governance in Swiss biobanks: results from a nationwide survey.

OBJECTIVES: This article aims to measure the willingness of the Swiss public to participate in personalised health research, and their preferences regarding data management and governance. SETTING: Results are presented from a nationwide survey of members of the Swiss public. PARTICIPANTS: 15 106 randomly selected Swiss residents received the survey in September 2019. The response rate was 34.1% (n=5156). Respondent age ranged from 18 to 79 years, with fairly uniform spread across sex and age categories between 25 and 64 years. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Willingness to participate in personalised health research and opinions regarding data management and governance. RESULTS: Most respondents preferred to be contacted and reconsented for each new project using their data (39%, 95% CI: 37.4% to 40.7%), or stated that their preference depends on the project type (29.4%, 95% CI: 27.9% to 31%). Additionally, a majority (52%, 95% CI: 50.3% to 53.8%) preferred their data or samples be stored anonymously or in coded form (43.4%, 95% CI: 41.7% to 45.1%). Of those who preferred that their data be anonymised, most also indicated a wish to be recontacted for each new project (36.8%, 95% CI: 34.5% to 39.2%); however, these preferences are in conflict. Most respondents desired to personally own their data. Finally, most Swiss respondents trust their doctors, along with researchers at universities, to protect their data. CONCLUSION: Insight into public preference can enable Swiss biobanks and research institutions to create management and governance strategies that match the expectations and preferences of potential participants. Models allowing participants to choose how to interact with the process, while more complex, may increase individual willingness to provide data to biobanks.

International registry of congenital porto-systemic shunts: a multi-centre, retrospective and prospective registry of neonates, children and adults with congenital porto-systemic shunts.

BACKGROUND: Congenital portosystemic shunts (CPSS) are rare vascular malformations associated with the risk of life-threatening systemic conditions, which remain underdiagnosed and often are identified after considerable diagnostic delay. CPSS are characterized by multiple signs and symptoms, often masquerading as other conditions, progressing over time if the shunt remains patent. Which patients will benefit from shunt closure remains to be clarified, as does the timing and method of closure. In addition, the etiology and pathophysiology of CPSS are both unknowns. This rare disorder needs the strength of numbers to answer these questions, which is the purpose of the international registry of CPSS (IRCPSS). METHOD: A retrospective and prospective registry was designed using secuTrial® by the ISO certified Clinical Research Unit. Given that a significant number of cases entered in the registry are retrospective, participants have the opportunity to use a semi-structured minimal or complete data set to facilitate data entry. In addition, the design allows subjects to be entered into the IRCPSS according to clinically relevant events. Emphasis is on longitudinal follow-up of signs and symptoms, which is paramount to garner clinically relevant information to eventually orient patient management. The IRCPSS includes also three specific forms to capture essential radiological, surgical, and cardiopulmonary data as many times as relevant, which are completed by the specialists themselves. Finally, connecting the clinical data registry with a safe image repository, using state-of-the-art pseudonymization software, was another major focus of development. Data quality and stewardship is ensured by a steering committee. All centers participating in the IRCPSS have signed a memorandum of understanding and obtained their own ethical approval. CONCLUSION: Through state-of-the-art management of data and imaging, we have developed a practical, user-friendly, international registry to study CPSS in neonates, children, and adults. Via this multicenter and international effort, we will be ready to answer meaningful and urgent questions regarding the management of patients with CPSS, a condition often ridden with significant diagnostic delay contributing to a severe clinical course.

Ten-year changes in colorectal cancer screening in Switzerland: The Swiss Health Interview Survey 2007, 2012 and 2017.

Recent recommendations for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening suggest fecal occult blood test (FOBT) or colonoscopy. Since 2013, mandatory health insurance in Switzerland reimburse CRC screening. We set out to determine if CRC testing rate and type of CRC screening changed in Switzerland from 2007 to 2017 and between the three main language regions. We extracted data on 50-75-year-olds from the Swiss Health Interview Survey (SHIS) 2007, 2012 and 2017 to determine rates of self-reported testing with FOBT within last 2 years and colonoscopy within last 10 years. We estimated prevalence ratio (PR) in multivariate-adjusted logistic regression models and compared rates in German-, French- and Italian-speaking regions, adjusting for sociodemographic, self-rated health and insurance variables. Overall testing rates (FOBT or colonoscopy) increased in all regions from 2007 to 2017 (German-speaking 33.6% to 48.3%; French-speaking 30.8% to 48.8%; Italian-speaking 37.9% to 46.8%), mainly because of an increase in colonoscopy rate for screening reasons (p < 0.001 in all regions). Rates of FOBT testing fell significantly in the German-speaking region (11.9% to 4.4%, p < 0.001), but not in the Italian- (13.9% to 8.5%, p = 0.052) and French-speaking regions (7.6% to 7.4%, p = 0.138). Overall CRC testing rate rose from 33.2% in 2007 to 48.4% in 2017, mainly because of an increase of colonoscopy rate for screening reasons. Coverage remains below the 65% target of European guidelines. Organized screening programs encouraging FOBT screening could contribute to further increasing the CRC testing rate.

Ticagrelor Monotherapy or Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After Drug-Eluting Stent Implantation: Per-Protocol Analysis of the GLOBAL LEADERS Trial.

Background In the GLOBAL LEADERS trial, ticagrelor monotherapy beyond 1 month compared with standard antiplatelet regimens after coronary stent implantation did not improve outcomes at intention-to-treat analysis. Considerable differences in treatment adherence between the experimental and control groups may have affected the intention-to-treat results. In this reanalysis of the GLOBAL LEADERS trial, we compared the experimental and control treatment strategies in a per-protocol analysis of patients who did not deviate from the study protocol. Methods and Results Baseline and postrandomization information were used to classify whether and when patients were deviating from the study protocol. With logistic regressions, we derived time-varying inverse probabilities of nondeviation from protocol to reconstruct the trial population without protocol deviation. The primary end point was a composite of all-cause mortality or nonfatal Q-wave myocardial infarction at 2 years. At 2-year follow-up, 1103 (13.8%) of 7980 patients in the experimental group and 785 (9.8%) of 7988 patients in the control group qualified as protocol deviators. At per-protocol analysis, the rate ratio for the primary end point was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.75-1.03; P=0.10) on the basis of 274 versus 325 events in the experimental versus control group. The rate ratio for the key safety end point of major bleeding was 1.00 (95% CI, 0.79-1.26; P=0.99). The per-protocol and intention-to-treat effect estimates were overall consistent. Conclusions Among patients who complied with the study protocol in the GLOBAL LEADERS trial, ticagrelor plus aspirin for 1 month followed by ticagrelor monotherapy was not superior to 1-year standard dual antiplatelet therapy followed by aspirin alone at 2 years after coronary stenting. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01813435.

Perinatal outcomes in singletons after fresh IVF/ICSI: results of two cohorts and the birth registry.

RESEARCH QUESTION: How are perinatal outcomes of live-born singletons after stimulated and unstimulated IVF different from perinatal outcomes in (i) children born in a tertiary centre and (ii) all children born in Switzerland? METHODS: This cohort study compared the perinatal outcomes of two birth cohorts and the national live birth registry. Relative risks were calculated using modified Poisson regression and clustering for siblings and adjustment for maternal age, parity and childs sex. RESULTS: Of the 636,639 live births, 311 were in the Bern IVF Cohort (144 stimulated, 167 unstimulated), 2332 in the tertiary centre and 633,996 in the Swiss Live Birth Registry (SLBR). Perinatal outcomes following IVF did not differ compared with births in the SLBR (adjusted relative risk [aRR]; 95% confidence interval [CI]), with the exception of the increased risk of small for gestational age (1.31; 1.01 to 1.70, P = 0.04; aRR 1.12; 0.87 to 1.45, P = 0.39). Children born following stimulated IVF had a higher risk of low birthweight (2.17; 1.27 to 3.69, P < 0.01; aRR 1.72; 1.01 to 2.93, P = 0.05), and of being small for gestational age (1.50; 1.05 to 2.14, P = 0.03; aRR 1.31; 0.92 to 1.87; P = 0.13), whereas children born after unstimulated IVF had no increased risks compared with the SLBR. Higher Caesarean rate after IVF was mainly associated with higher maternal age. CONCLUSION: Singletons in the Bern IVF Cohort do not show less favourable perinatal outcomes. Gonadotrophin stimulation seems to have an effect, because lower risks were associated with unstimulated IVF.

Historically High Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain.

BACKGROUND: Excess mortality quantifies the overall mortality impact of a pandemic. Mortality data have been accessible for many countries in recent decades, but few continuous data have been available for longer periods. OBJECTIVE: To assess the historical dimension of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 for 3 countries with reliable death count data over an uninterrupted span of more than 100 years. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain, which were militarily neutral and not involved in combat during either world war and have not been affected by significant changes in their territory since the end of the 19th century. PARTICIPANTS: Complete populations of these 3 countries. MEASUREMENTS: Continuous series of recorded deaths (from all causes) by month from the earliest available year (1877 for Switzerland, 1851 for Sweden, and 1908 for Spain) were jointly modeled with annual age group-specific death and total population counts using negative binomial and multinomial models, which accounted for temporal trends and seasonal variability of prepandemic years. The aim was to estimate the expected number of deaths in a pandemic year for a nonpandemic scenario and the difference in observed and expected deaths aggregated over the year. RESULTS: In 2020, the number of excess deaths recorded per 100 000 persons was 100 (95% credible interval [CrI], 60 to 135) for Switzerland, 75 (CrI, 40 to 105) for Sweden, and 155 (CrI, 110 to 195) for Spain. In 1918, excess mortality was 6 to 7 times higher. In all 3 countries, the peaks of monthly excess mortality in 2020 were greater than most monthly excess mortality since 1918, including many peaks due to seasonal influenza and heat waves during that period. LIMITATION: Historical vital statistics might be affected by minor completeness issues before the beginning of the 20th century. CONCLUSION: In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to the second-largest infection-related mortality disaster in Switzerland, Sweden, and Spain since the beginning of the 20th century. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Foundation for Research in Science and the Humanities at the University of Zurich, Swiss National Science Foundation, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Trends in suicide methods in Switzerland from 1969 to 2018: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Suicide is a serious societal and health problem. We examined changes in rates of completed suicides in Switzerland between 1969-2018 with particular regard to different methods of suicide used in different subgroups of the resident population. METHODS: We used data of the Swiss cause of death statistics and Poisson regression models to analyse annual incidence rates and calendar time trends of specific suicide methods used in population subgroups by sex (men vs women), age (10-29, 30-64, >64 years), and nationality (Swiss vs other citizenship). RESULTS: There were 64,996 registered suicides between 1969 and 2018. Across these 5 decades, the overall suicide rate was higher in men than in women (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.58-2.67), in Swiss citizens than in foreigners (IRR 2.02; 95% CI 1.97-2.07), and in older residents (>64 years) than in the age groups 30-64 years (IRR 1.35, 95% CI 1.32-1.37) and 10-29 years (IRR 2.37, 95% CI 2.32-2.43). After peaking in the 1980s, the overall suicide rate had declined in all of these population subgroups, with flattening trends over most recent years. The most common specific methods of suicide were hanging (accounting for 26.7% of all suicides) and firearms (23.6%). The rates of the specific suicide methods were usually higher in men, in Swiss citizens and in older residents, and they had typically declined over most recent decades in the population subgroups examined. However, some methods diverged from this general pattern, at least in some population subgroups. For instance, railway suicides most recently increased in younger and in male residents whereas suicides by gas and by drowning were only at a low level after rapid declines in the last millennium. CONCLUSIONS: Restricting access to lethal means (e.g., detoxification of domestic gas), improvements in health care and media guidelines for responsible reporting of suicides are possible explanations for the generally declining suicide rates in Switzerland. Whereas some methods (e.g., poisoning by gases or drowning) had become rare, others continue to account for many suicides every year, at least in some population subgroups (e.g., firearms in older Swiss men or railway suicides in younger and in male residents). As different methods of suicide are chosen by different people or subgroups of the population, preventive efforts should include differentiated strategies and targeted measures to further reduce suicides in Switzerland and elsewhere.