Adaptive potential of Coffea canephora from Uganda in response to climate change.

Understanding vulnerabilities of plant populations to climate change could help preserve their biodiversity and reveal new elite parents for future breeding programmes. To this end, landscape genomics is a useful approach for assessing putative adaptations to future climatic conditions, especially in long-lived species such as trees. We conducted a population genomics study of 207 Coffea canephora trees from seven forests along different climate gradients in Uganda. For this, we sequenced 323 candidate genes involved in key metabolic and defence pathways in coffee. Seventy-one single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were found to be significantly associated with bioclimatic variables, and were thereby considered as putatively adaptive loci. These SNPs were linked to key candidate genes, including transcription factors, like DREB-like and MYB family genes controlling plant responses to abiotic stresses, as well as other genes of organoleptic interest, such as the DXMT gene involved in caffeine biosynthesis and a putative pest repellent. These climate-associated genetic markers were used to compute genetic offsets, predicting population responses to future climatic conditions based on local climate change forecasts. Using these measures of maladaptation to future conditions, substantial levels of genetic differentiation between present and future diversity were estimated for all populations and scenarios considered. The populations from the forests Zoka and Budongo, in the northernmost zone of Uganda, appeared to have the lowest genetic offsets under all predicted climate change patterns, while populations from Kalangala and Mabira, in the Lake Victoria region, exhibited the highest genetic offsets. The potential of these findings in terms of ex situ conservation strategies are discussed.

Genetic diversity of native and cultivated Ugandan Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora Pierre ex A. Froehner): Climate influences, breeding potential and diversity conservation.

Wild genetic resources and their ability to adapt to environmental change are critically important in light of the projected climate change, while constituting the foundation of agricultural sustainability. To address the expected negative effects of climate change on Robusta coffee trees (Coffea canephora), collecting missions were conducted to explore its current native distribution in Uganda over a broad climatic range. Wild material from seven forests could thus be collected. We used 19 microsatellite (SSR) markers to assess genetic diversity and structure of this material as well as material from two ex-situ collections and a feral population. The Ugandan C. canephora diversity was then positioned relative to the species' global diversity structure. Twenty-two climatic variables were used to explore variations in climatic zones across the sampled forests. Overall, Uganda's native C. canephora diversity differs from other known genetic groups of this species. In northwestern (NW) Uganda, four distinct genetic clusters were distinguished being from Zoka, Budongo, Itwara and Kibale forests A large southern-central (SC) cluster included Malabigambo, Mabira, and Kalangala forest accessions, as well as feral and cultivated accessions, suggesting similarity in genetic origin and strong gene flow between wild and cultivated compartments. We also confirmed the introduction of Congolese varieties into the SC region where most Robusta coffee production takes place. Identified populations occurred in divergent environmental conditions and 12 environmental variables significantly explained 16.3% of the total allelic variation across populations. The substantial genetic variation within and between Ugandan populations with different climatic envelopes might contain adaptive diversity to cope with climate change. The accessions that we collected have substantially enriched the diversity hosted in the Ugandan collections and thus contribute to ex situ conservation of this vital genetic resource. However, there is an urgent need to develop strategies to enhance complementary in-situ conservation of Coffea canephora in native forests in northwestern Uganda.