Artificial intelligence to predict the need for mechanical ventilation in cases of severe COVID-19.

Objective: To determinate the accuracy of computed tomography (CT) imaging assessed by deep neural networks for predicting the need for mechanical ventilation (MV) in patients hospitalized with severe acute respiratory syndrome due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study carried out at two hospitals in Brazil. We included CT scans from patients who were hospitalized due to severe acute respiratory syndrome and had COVID-19 confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The training set consisted of chest CT examinations from 823 patients with COVID-19, of whom 93 required MV during hospitalization. We developed an artificial intelligence (AI) model based on convolutional neural networks. The performance of the AI model was evaluated by calculating its accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: For predicting the need for MV, the AI model had a sensitivity of 0.417 and a specificity of 0.860. The corresponding area under the ROC curve for the test set was 0.68. Conclusion: The high specificity of our AI model makes it able to reliably predict which patients will and will not need invasive ventilation. That makes this approach ideal for identifying high-risk patients and predicting the minimum number of ventilators and critical care beds that will be required.

Objetivo: Determinar a acurácia da tomografia computadorizada (TC), avaliada por redes neurais profundas, na ventilação mecânica, de pacientes hospitalizados por síndrome respiratória aguda grave por COVID-19. Materiais e Métodos: Trata-se de estudo de coorte retrospectivo, realizado em dois hospitais brasileiros. Foram incluídas TCs de pacientes hospitalizados por síndrome respiratória aguda grave e COVID-19 confirmada por RT-PCR. O treinamento consistiu em TC de tórax de 823 pacientes com COVID-19, dos quais 93 foram submetidos a ventilação mecânica na hospitalização. Nós desenvolvemos um modelo de inteligência artificial baseado em redes de convoluções neurais. A avaliação do desempenho do uso da inteligência artificial foi baseada no cálculo de acurácia, sensibilidade, especificidade e área sob a curva ROC. Resultados: A sensibilidade do modelo foi de 0,417 e a especificidade foi de 0,860. A área sob a curva ROC para o conjunto de teste foi de 0,68. Conclusão: Criamos um modelo de aprendizado de máquina com elevada especificidade, capaz de prever de forma confiável pacientes que não precisarão de ventilação mecânica. Isso significa que essa abordagem é ideal para prever com antecedência pacientes de alto risco e um número mínimo de equipamentos de ventilação e de leitos críticos.

Clinical characteristics and outcomes of hospital-manifested COVID-19 among Brazilians.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the clinical characteristics and outcomes of admitted patients with the hospital- versus community-manifested COVID-19 and to evaluate the risk factors related to mortality in the first population. METHODS: This retrospective cohort included consecutive adult patients with COVID-19, hospitalized between March and September 2020. The demographic data, clinical characteristics, and outcomes were extracted from medical records. Patients with hospital-manifested COVID-19 (study group) and those with community-manifested COVID-19 (control group) were matched by the propensity score model. Logistic regression models were used to verify the risk factors for mortality in the study group. RESULTS: Among 7,710 hospitalized patients who had COVID-19, 7.2% developed symptoms while admitted for other reasons. Patients with hospital-manifested COVID-19 had a higher prevalence of cancer (19.2% vs 10.8%) and alcoholism (8.8% vs 2.8%) than patients with community-manifested COVID-19 and also had a higher rate of intensive care unit requirement (45.1% vs 35.2%), sepsis (23.8% vs 14.5%), and death (35.8% vs 22.5%) (P <0.05 for all). The factors independently associated with increased mortality in the study group were increasing age, male sex, number of comorbidities, and cancer. CONCLUSION: Hospital-manifested COVID-19 was associated with increased mortality. Increasing age, male sex, number of comorbidities, and cancer were independent predictors of mortality among those with hospital-manifested COVID-19 disease.

Development and validation of the MMCD score to predict kidney replacement therapy in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequently associated with COVID-19, and the need for kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is considered an indicator of disease severity. This study aimed to develop a prognostic score for predicting the need for KRT in hospitalised COVID-19 patients, and to assess the incidence of AKI and KRT requirement. METHODS: This study is part of a multicentre cohort, the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry. A total of 5212 adult COVID-19 patients were included between March/2020 and September/2020. Variable selection was performed using generalised additive models (GAM), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used for score derivation. Accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). RESULTS: The median age of the model-derivation cohort was 59 (IQR 47-70) years, 54.5% were men, 34.3% required ICU admission, 20.9% evolved with AKI, 9.3% required KRT, and 15.1% died during hospitalisation. The temporal validation cohort had similar age, sex, ICU admission, AKI, required KRT distribution and in-hospital mortality. The geographic validation cohort had similar age and sex; however, this cohort had higher rates of ICU admission, AKI, need for KRT and in-hospital mortality. Four predictors of the need for KRT were identified using GAM: need for mechanical ventilation, male sex, higher creatinine at hospital presentation and diabetes. The MMCD score had excellent discrimination in derivation (AUROC 0.929, 95% CI 0.918-0.939) and validation (temporal AUROC 0.927, 95% CI 0.911-0.941; geographic AUROC 0.819, 95% CI 0.792-0.845) cohorts and good overall performance (Brier score: 0.057, 0.056 and 0.122, respectively). The score is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator ( https://www.mmcdscore.com/ ). CONCLUSIONS: The use of the MMCD score to predict the need for KRT may assist healthcare workers in identifying hospitalised COVID-19 patients who may require more intensive monitoring, and can be useful for resource allocation.