Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better - A perspective.

Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models to engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared perspective, MEMs remain underutilized because they still lack formal validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantifications that undermines their credibility and uptake in policy arenas. We explore why these shortcomings exist and how to enable the global modelling community to increase MEMs' usefulness. We identify a clear gap between proposed solutions to assess model skills, uncertainty, and confidence and their actual systematic deployment. We attribute this gap to an underlying factor that the ecosystem modelling literature largely ignores: technical issues. We conclude by proposing a conceptual solution that is cost-effective, scalable and simple, because complex spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling is already complicated enough.

The Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling System: Overview and Recommendations for Future Development.

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Using sea-ice to calibrate a dynamic trophic model for the Western Antarctic Peninsula.

The pelagic ecosystems of the Western Antarctic Peninsula are dynamic and changing rapidly in the face of sustained warming. There is already evidence that warming may be impacting the food web. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is an ice-associated species that is both an important prey item and the target of the only commercial fishery operating in the region. The goal of this study is to develop a dynamic trophic model for the region that includes the impact of the sea-ice regime on krill and krill predators. Such a model may be helpful to fisheries managers as they develop new management strategies in the face of continued sea-ice loss. A mass balanced food-web model (Ecopath) and time dynamic simulations (Ecosim) were created. The Ecopath model includes eight currently monitored species as single species to facilitate its future development into a model that could be used for marine protected area planning in the region. The Ecosim model is calibrated for the years 1996-2012. The successful calibration represents an improvement over existing Ecopath models for the region. Simulations indicate that the role of sea ice is both central and complex. The simulations are only able to recreate observed biomass trends for the monitored species when metrics describing the sea-ice regime are used to force key predator-prey interactions, and to drive the biomasses of Antarctic krill and the fish species Gobionotothen gibberifrons. This model is ready to be used for exploring results from sea-ice scenarios or to be developed into a spatial model that informs discussions regarding the design of marine protected areas in the region.

Pharmaceutical chemicals, steroids and xenoestrogens in water, sediments and fish from the tidal freshwater Potomac River (Virginia, USA).

Selected pharmaceutical chemicals, steroids and xenoestrogens (PCSXs) consisting of 29 endocrine modulators, therapeutic drugs, pesticides, detergents, plastics, and active ingredients in household products were measured in water, riverbed sediments and fish collected in a tributary embayment of the Potomac River (Hunting Creek, Alexandria, VA, USA) in the vicinity of wastewater discharge. A total of 17 PCSXs were found in the Hunting Creek samples, with steroid hormones (e.g., progesterone and 17α-ethinylestradiol), triclosan, dextromethorphan and bisphenol A being the most prominent micropollutants detected.The geospatial distribution of the PCSXs in Hunting Creek indicated that the steroids correlated with wastewater treatment plant discharge in all matrices, but such an association is tentative in Hunting Creek given the complex nature of urban sources of PCSXs and hydrodynamics in an urban tidal river. The sediment PCSX concentrations correlated with sediment total organic carbon content at all sampling sites. For the most part, the PCSXs showed an enrichment in fish tissue relative to sediments when concentrations were normalized to lipids and sediment organic carbon contents, but the influence of endogenous steroids is also an important consideration for these chemicals.

Abundance and size of Gulf shrimp in Louisiana's coastal estuaries following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill impacted Louisiana's coastal estuaries physically, chemically, and biologically. To better understand the ecological consequences of this oil spill on Louisiana estuaries, we compared the abundance and size of two Gulf shrimp species (Farfantepeneus aztecus and Litopeneus setiferus) in heavily affected and relatively unaffected estuaries, before and after the oil spill. Two datasets were used to conduct this study: data on shrimp abundance and size before the spill were available from Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries (LDWF). Data on shrimp abundance and size from after the spill were independently collected by the authors and by LDWF. Using a Before-After-Control-Impact with Paired sampling (BACIP) design with monthly samples of two selected basins, we found brown shrimp to become more abundant and the mean size of white shrimp to become smaller. Using a BACIP with data on successive shrimp year-classes of multiple basins, we found both species to become more abundant in basins that were affected by the spill, while mean shrimp size either not change after the spill, or increased in both affected and unaffected basins. We conclude that following the oil spill abundances of both species increased within affected estuaries, whereas mean size may have been unaffected. We propose two factors that may have caused these results: 1) exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) may have reduced the growth rate of shrimp, resulting in a delayed movement of shrimp to offshore habitats, and an increase of within-estuary shrimp abundance, and 2) fishing closures established immediately after the spill, may have resulted in decreased fishing effort and an increase in shrimp abundance. This study accentuates the complexities in determining ecological effects of oil spills, and the need of studies on the organismal level to reveal cause-and-effect relationships of such events.

Reanalyses of Gulf of Mexico fisheries data: landings can be misleading in assessments of fisheries and fisheries ecosystems.

We used two high profile articles as cases to demonstrate that use of fishery landings data can lead to faulty interpretations about the condition of fishery ecosystems. One case uses the mean trophic level index and its changes, and the other uses estimates of fishery collapses. In earlier analyses by other authors, marine ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and U.S. Atlantic Ocean south of Chesapeake Bay were deemed to be severely overfished and the food webs badly deteriorated using these criteria. In our reanalyses, the low mean trophic level index for the GOM actually resulted from large catches of two groups of low trophic level species, menhaden and shrimp, and the mean trophic level was slowly increasing rather than decreasing. Commercial targeting and high landings of shrimps and menhaden, especially in the GOM, drove the index as previously calculated. Reanalyses of fishery collapses incorporating criteria that included targeting, variability in fishing effort, and market forces discovered many false cases of collapse based simply upon a decline of catches to 10% of previous maximum levels. Consequently, we suggest that the low mean trophic level index calculated in the earlier article for the GOM did not reflect the overall condition of the fishery ecosystem, and that the 10% rule for collapse should not be interpreted out of context in the GOM or elsewhere. In both cases, problems lay in the assumption that commercial landings data alone adequately reflect the fish populations and communities.