A clinical prediction model to assess the risk of operative delivery.

OBJECTIVE: To predict instrumental vaginal delivery or caesarean section for suspected fetal distress or failure to progress. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a randomised trial. SETTING: Three academic and six non-academic teaching hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: 5667 labouring women with a singleton term pregnancy in cephalic presentation. METHODS: We developed multinomial prediction models to assess the risk of operative delivery using both antepartum (model 1) and antepartum plus intrapartum characteristics (model 2). The models were validated by bootstrapping techniques and adjusted for overfitting. Predictive performance was assessed by calibration and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic), and easy-to-use nomograms were developed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of instrumental vaginal delivery or caesarean section for fetal distress or failure to progress with respect to a spontaneous vaginal delivery (reference). RESULTS: 375 (6.6%) and 212 (3.6%) women had an instrumental vaginal delivery or caesarean section due to fetal distress, and 433 (7.6%) and 571 (10.1%) due to failure to progress, respectively. Predictors were age, parity, previous caesarean section, diabetes, gestational age, gender, estimated birthweight (model 1) and induction of labour, oxytocin augmentation, intrapartum fever, prolonged rupture of membranes, meconium stained amniotic fluid, epidural anaesthesia, and use of ST-analysis (model 2). Both models showed excellent calibration and the receiver operating characteristics areas were 0.70-0.78 and 0.73-0.81, respectively. CONCLUSION: In Dutch women with a singleton term pregnancy in cephalic presentation, antepartum and intrapartum characteristics can assist in the prediction of the need for an instrumental vaginal delivery or caesarean section for fetal distress or failure to progress.

Long-term outcomes in women with polycystic ovary syndrome initially randomized to receive laparoscopic electrocautery of the ovaries or ovulation induction with gonadotrophins.

BACKGROUND: Long-term effects of laparoscopic electrocautery of the ovaries are unknown. To study the long-term effects of laparoscopic electrocautery of the ovaries and gonadotrophins, we followed women with clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) randomly allocated to one of these treatments until 8-12 years after their initial treatment. METHODS: Between February 1998 and October 2001 168 women with clomiphene citrate-resistant PCOS were included in a randomized controlled trial comparing an electrocautery strategy to a strategy starting with rFSH. In 2009 these women were contacted about their reproductive outcome and menstrual cycle regularity. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. We compared time to conception resulting in live birth, subsequent pregnancies, ectopic and multiple pregnancies, menopause, as well as minimal and maximal menstrual cycle length. RESULTS: After 8-12 years, the cumulative proportion of women with a first child was 86% in women who had been allocated to electrocautery versus 81% in women who had been allocated to immediate rFSH [relative ratio (RR): 1.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92-1.2]. Treatment with electrocautery resulted in a significantly lower need for stimulated cycles to reach a live birth; 53% after electrocautery versus 76% after rFSH (RR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.55-0.88).The cumulative proportion of women with a second child was 61% after electrocautery versus 46% after immediate rFSH (RR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.00-1.9). Overall, there were 7 twins out of 134 deliveries (5%) after electrocautery versus 10 twins out of 124 deliveries (8%) in the rFSH group (RR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.25-1.6). Fifty-four per cent of the women allocated to electrocautery had a regular menstrual cycle 8-12 years after randomization versus 36% in those allocated to rFSH (RR: 1.5; 95% CI: 0.87-2.6). CONCLUSION: In women with clomiphene-resistant PCOS, laparoscopic electrocautery of the ovaries is as effective as ovulation induction with FSH treatment in terms of live births, but reduces the need for ovulation induction or ART in a significantly higher proportion of women and increases the chance for a second child. Clinicians may use these data when informing clomiphene-resistant anovulatory women about treatment options.

Removal of cervical mucus: effect on pregnancy rates in IVF/ICSI.

Cervical mucus may cover the embryo transfer catheter during passage of the cervical canal, interfering with the correct placement of the embryo(s) into the uterine cavity. The effect of removal of cervical mucus prior to embryo transfer in IVF/ intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) on live birth rate was studied. The study was set up as a single blind randomized controlled trial. Couples undergoing IVF/ICSI were randomly allocated to either removal of cervical mucus prior to embryo transfer, or a mock procedure. Randomization was done with stratification for age, cycle number and method of treatment. Primary outcome was live birth rate. A total of 317 couples were included and underwent 428 cycles, of which the outcome of 3 cycles was unknown. Baseline characteristics of both groups were comparable. Live birth occurred in 52 of 220 (24%) cycles in the treatment group and 42 of 205 (21%) cycles in the control group (risk difference 3%, 95% confidence interval-5- 11%). It is unlikely that removal of cervical mucus prior to embryo transfer has a significant effect on live birth rate. A small effect, however, cannot be excluded.

Routine Chlamydia antibody testing is of limited use in subfertile women with anovulation.

The Chlamydia antibody titre (CAT) is a test used to identify subfertile couples at increased risk for tubal pathology. The usefulness of the routine performance of CAT was evaluated in a multicentre prospective cohort study, in women without regular ovulation. Consecutive couples presenting with subfertility due to an irregular menstrual cycle or amenorrhoea were included. A total of 711 women were studied, all of whom underwent CAT. Tubal status was verified in 190 of these women. Two-sided tubal pathology was found in 5% of these women, and one-sided occlusion in 10%. Of all the women in the study group, 33 (4.6%) had an abnormal CAT, of which 21 underwent further tubal testing. Tubal pathology was found in two (10%) of these 21 patients. The sensitivity and specificity of CAT were respectively 20% and 89%. Correction for verification bias increased the specificity to 96% with a drop of the sensitivity to 9%. In subfertile couples with anovulation, the performance of CAT is not useful. It is proposed that testing for tubal disease in these women is delayed until treatment with clomiphene citrate has failed.

Pregnancy is predictable: a large-scale prospective external validation of the prediction of spontaneous pregnancy in subfertile couples.

BACKGROUND: Prediction models for spontaneous pregnancy may be useful tools to select subfertile couples that have good fertility prospects and should therefore be counselled for expectant management. We assessed the accuracy of a recently published prediction model for spontaneous pregnancy in a large prospective validation study. METHODS: In 38 centres, we studied a consecutive cohort of subfertile couples, referred for an infertility work-up. Patients had a regular menstrual cycle, patent tubes and a total motile sperm count (TMC) >3 x 10(6). After the infertility work-up had been completed, we used a prediction model to calculate the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy (www.freya.nl/probability.php). The primary end-point was time until the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy within 1 year. The performance of the pregnancy prediction model was assessed with calibration, which is the comparison of predicted and observed ongoing pregnancy rates for groups of patients and discrimination. RESULTS: We included 3021 couples of whom 543 (18%) had a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy, 57 (2%) a non-successful pregnancy, 1316 (44%) started treatment, 825 (27%) neither started treatment nor became pregnant and 280 (9%) were lost to follow-up. Calibration of the prediction model was almost perfect. In the 977 couples (32%) with a calculated probability between 30 and 40%, the observed cumulative pregnancy rate at 12 months was 30%, and in 611 couples (20%) with a probability of >or=40%, this was 46%. The discriminative capacity was similar to the one in which the model was developed (c-statistic 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: As the chance of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy among subfertile couples can be accurately calculated, this prediction model can be used as an essential tool for clinical decision-making and in counselling patients. The use of the prediction model may help to prevent unnecessary treatment.