RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Recently, a comprehensive xerostomia prediction model was published, based on baseline xerostomia, mean dose to parotid glands (PG) and submandibular glands (SMG). Previously, PET imaging biomarkers (IBMs) of PG were shown to improve xerostomia prediction. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the potential improvement of the additional PET-IBMs from both PG and SMG to the recent comprehensive xerostomia prediction model (i.e., the reference model). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Totally, 540 head and neck cancer patients were split into training and validation cohorts. PET-IBMs from the PG and SMG, were selected using bootstrapped forward selection based on the reference model. The IBMs from both the PG and SMG with the highest selection frequency were added to the reference model, resulting in a PG-IBM model and a SMG-IBM model which were combined into a composite model. Model performance was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC). Likelihood ratio test compared the predictive performance between the reference model and models including IBMs. RESULTS: The final selected PET-IBMs were 90th percentile of the PG SUV and total energy of the SMG SUV. The additional two PET-IBMs in the composite model improved the predictive performance of the reference model significantly. The AUC of the reference model and the composite model were 0.67 and 0.69 in the training cohort, and 0.71 and 0.73 in the validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSION: The composite model including two additional PET-IBMs from PG and SMG improved the predictive performance of the reference xerostomia model significantly, facilitating a more personalized prediction approach.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previously, PET image biomarkers (PET-IBMs) - the 90th percentile standardized uptake value (P90-SUV) and the Mean SUV (Mean-SUV) of the contralateral parotid gland (cPG) - were identified as predictors for late-xerostomia following head and neck cancer (HNC) radiotherapy. The aim of the current study was to assess in an independent validation cohort whether these pre-treatment PET-IBM can improve late-xerostomia prediction compared to the prediction with baseline xerostomia and mean cPG dose alone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The prediction endpoint was patient-rated moderate-to-severe xerostomia at 12 months after radiotherapy. The PET-IBMs were extracted from pre-treatment 18 F-FDG PET images. The performance of the model (base model) with baseline xerostomia and mean cPG dose alone and models with additionally P90-SUV or Mean-SUV were tested in the current independent validation cohort. Specifically, model discrimination (area under the curve: AUC) and calibration (calibration plot) were evaluated. RESULTS: The current validation cohort consisted of 137 patients of which 40% developed moderate-to-severe xerostomia at 12 months. Both the PET-P90 model (AUC:PET-P90 = 0.71) and the PET-Mean model (AUC: PET-Mean = 0.70) performed well in the current validation cohort. Moreover, their performance were improved compared to the base model (AUC:base model= 0.68). The calibration plots showed a good fit of the prediction to the actual rates for all tested models. CONCLUSION: PET-IBMs showed an improved prediction of late-xerostomia when added to the base model in this validation cohort. This contributed to the published hypothesis that PET-IBMs include individualized information and can serve as a pre-treatment risk factor for late-xerostomia.
