Spatial distribution and temporal trends of tuberculosis case notifications, Uganda: a ten-year retrospective analysis (2013-2022).

BACKGROUND: Uganda has a high incidence and prevalence of tuberculosis (TB). Analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of TB is an important tool for supporting spatial decision-making, planning, and policy formulations; however, this information is not readily available in Uganda. We determined the spatial distribution and temporal trends of tuberculosis notifications in Uganda, 2013-2022. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of routinely-generated program data reported through the National TB and Leprosy Programme (NTLP) surveillance system. We abstracted data on all TB cases diagnosed from 2013 to 2022 by district and region. We drew choropleth maps for Uganda showing the TB case notification rates (CNR) per 100,000 and calculated the CNR using the cases per district as the numerator and individual district populations as the denominators. Population estimates were obtained from the 2014 National Population and Housing Census, and a national growth rate of 3% was used to estimate the annual population increase. RESULTS: Over the entire study period, 568,957 cases of TB were reported in Uganda. There was a 6% annual increase in TB CNR reported from 2013 (134/100,000) to 2022 (213/100,000) (p-value for trend p < 0.00001). Cases were reported from all 12 Ministry of Health regions during the entire period. The distribution of CNR was heterogeneous throughout the country and over time. Moroto, Napak and Kampala districts had consistently high CNR throughout the ten years. Kalangala district had lower CNR from 2013 to 2018 but high CNR from 2019 to 2022. Moroto region, in the northeast, had consistently high CNR while Mbale and Soroti regions in Eastern Uganda had the lowest CNR throughout the ten years. CONCLUSION: There was an overall increasing trend in TB CNR from 2013 to 2022. We recommend that the National TB program institutes intensified measures aided by more funding to mitigate and reverse the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB.

Trends of notification rates and treatment outcomes of tuberculosis cases with and without HIV co-infection in eight rural districts of Uganda (2015 - 2019).

BACKGROUND: The End TB Strategy aims to reduce new tuberculosis (TB) cases by 90% and TB-related deaths by 95% between 2015 - 2035. We determined the trend of case notification rates (CNRs) and treatment outcomes of TB cases with and without HIV co-infection in rural Uganda to provide an interim evaluation of progress towards this global target in rural settings. METHODS: We extracted retrospective programmatic data on notified TB cases and treatment outcomes from 2015 - 2019 for eight districts in rural Uganda from the District Health Information System 2. We estimated CNRs as the number of TB cases per 100,000 population. Treatment success rate (TSR) was calculated as the sum of TB cure and treatment completion for each year. Trends were estimated using the Mann-Kendall test. RESULTS: A total of 11,804 TB cases, of which 5,811 (49.2%) were HIV co-infected, were notified. The overall TB CNR increased by 3.7-fold from 37.7 to 141.3 cases per 100,000 population in 2015 and 2019 respectively. The increment was observed among people with HIV (from 204.7 to 730.2 per 100,000, p = 0.028) and HIV-uninfected individuals (from 19.9 to 78.7 per 100,000, p = 0.028). There was a decline in the TSR among HIV-negative TB cases from 82.1% in 2015 to 63.9% in 2019 (p = 0.086). Conversely, there was an increase in the TSR among HIV co-infected TB cases (from 69.9% to 81.9%, p = 0.807). CONCLUSION: The CNR increased among people with and without HIV while the TSR reduced among HIV-negative TB cases. There is need to refocus programs to address barriers to treatment success among HIV-negative TB cases.