Resurgence of Clinical Malaria in Ethiopia and Its Link to Anopheles stephensi Invasion.

The invasion of Anopheles stephensi into Africa poses a potential threat to malaria control and elimination on the continent. However, it is not clear if the recent malaria resurgence in Ethiopia has linked to the expansion of An. stephensi. We obtained the clinical malaria case reports and malaria intervention data from the Ethiopian Ministry of Health (MoH) for the period 2001-2022. We analyzed clinical malaria hotspots and investigated the potential role of An. stephensi in the 2022 malaria outbreaks. Clinical malaria cases in Ethiopia decreased by 80%, from 5.2 million cases in 2004 to 1.0 million cases in 2018; however, cases increased steadily to 2.6 million confirmed cases in 2022. Plasmodium vivax cases and proportion have increased significantly in the past 5 years. Clinical malaria hotspots are concentrated along the western Ethiopian border areas and have grown significantly from 2017 to 2022. Major malaria outbreaks in 2022/2023 were detected in multiple sites across Ethiopia, and An. stephensi was the predominant vector in some of these sites, however, it was absence from many of the outbreak sites. The causes of recent upsurge in malaria in Ethiopia may be multi-factorial and it is a subject of further investigation.

Resurgence of Clinical Malaria in Ethiopia in the Era of Anopheles stephensi Invasion.

Background: The invasion of Anopheles stephensi into Africa poses a potential threat to malaria control and elimination on the continent. However, it is not clear if the recent malaria resurgence in Ethiopia has linked to the expansion of An. stephensi. We aimed to summarize the major achievements and lesson learnt in malaria control in Ethiopia from 2001 to 2022, to assess the new challenges and prospects for the control of An. stephensi. Methods and findings: We obtained the clinical malaria case reports, antimalarial drug treatment records, insecticide-treated and long-lasting insecticidal net (ITN/LLIN) distribution and utilization records, and indoor residual spraying (IRS) coverage data from the Ethiopian Ministry of Health (MoH) for the period 2001-2022. We analyzed clinical malaria hotspots using spatially optimized hotspot analysis. We investigated malaria outbreaks in 2022 and examined the potential role of An. stephensi in the outbreaks.Clinical malaria cases in Ethiopia decreased by 80%, from 5.2 million cases (11% confirmed) in 2004 to 1.0 million cases (92% confirmed) in 2018; however, cases increased steadily to 2.6 million confirmed cases (98% confirmed) in 2022. Plasmodium vivax cases and proportion have increased significantly in the past 5 years. Clinical malaria hotspots are concentrated along the western Ethiopian border areas and have grown significantly from 2017 to 2022. Major malaria outbreaks in 2022/23 were detected in multiple sites across Ethiopia, and An. stephensi was the predominant vector in some of these sites, however, it was absence from many of the outbreak sites. Conclusions: The malaria burden has been significantly reduced in Ethiopia in the past two decades, but in recent years it has increased substantially, and the cause of such increase is a subject of further investigation. Major gaps exist in An. stephensi research, including vector ecology, surveillance, and control tools, especially for adult mosquito control.

Validation of malaria-attributed deaths using verbal autopsy studies: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Malaria contributes substantially to the persistent burden of child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. Accurate and comprehensive malaria mortality data are crucial to monitor the progress in reducing malaria incidence and mortality. Verbal Autopsy (VA) ascertains the cause of death despite its limitations leading to misclassification errors. Minimally Invasive Tissue Sampling (MITS) is being conducted in some settings as an alternative to Complete Diagnostic Autopsy (CDA). The present study examines the validity of malaria-related deaths comparing VA diagnoses with those obtained through MITS and/or CDA. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search for original studies in English language using Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, CINAHL via EBSCO, Scopus, The Cochrane Library via Wiley, Google Scholar and searching the MITS Surveillance Alliance papers was carried out. The reference period was January 1, 1990-March 31, 2024. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were adopted. RESULTS: Among 71 articles identified in the databases, 21 matched the eligibility criteria. Qualitative syntheses showed that malaria Cause Specific Mortality Fractions (CSMFs) across various studies ranged from 2 to 31%. Plasmodium falciparum was mostly responsible for these deaths and the most common complications were anaemia and cerebral malaria. The sensitivity and specificity of the VA validation studies ranged from 18.4% to 33% and from 86.6% to 97%, respectively, and there was a high level of misclassification for both InSilico and Expert Algorithm VA for malaria compared to MITS. The overall concordance rates between MITS and CDA diagnoses ranged from 68 to 90%, with the highest concordance seen in deaths due to infectious diseases and malignant tumours. Clinical data increased diagnostic coincidence between MITS blind to clinical data and the gold standard CDA by 11%. CONCLUSIONS: The comprehensive review finds that MITS demonstrated better accuracy compared to VA in diagnosing malaria-attributed deaths, particularly in hospital settings. The high specificity of malaria in VA diagnosis suggests population-based estimates of the proportion of deaths due to malaria are broadly plausible.

Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum carriage at the end of the dry season is associated with subsequent infection and clinical malaria in Eastern Gambia.

BACKGROUND: Chronic carriage of asymptomatic low-density Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia in the dry season may support maintenance of acquired immunity that protects against clinical malaria. However, the relationship between chronic low-density infections and subsequent risk of clinical malaria episodes remains unclear. METHODS: In a 2-years study (December 2014 to December 2016) in eastern Gambia, nine cross-sectional surveys using molecular parasite detection were performed in the dry and wet season. During the 2016 malaria transmission season, passive case detection identified episodes of clinical malaria. RESULTS: Among the 5256 samples collected, 444 (8.4%) were positive for P. falciparum. A multivariate model identified village of residence, male sex, age ≥ 5 years old, anaemia, and fever as independent factors associated with P. falciparum parasite carriage. Infections did not cluster over time within the same households or recurred among neighbouring households. Asymptomatic parasite carriage at the end of dry season was associated with a higher risk of infection (Hazard Ratio, HR = 3.0, p < 0.0001) and clinical malaria (HR = 1.561, p = 0.057) during the following transmission season. Age and village of residence were additional predictors of infection and clinical malaria during the transmission season. CONCLUSION: Chronic parasite carriage during the dry season is associated with an increased risk of malaria infection and clinical malaria. It is unclear whether this is due to environmental exposure or to other factors.

Understanding the role of serological and clinical data on assessing the dynamic of malaria transmission: a case study of Bagamoyo district, Tanzania.

Introduction: naturally acquired blood-stage malaria antibodies and malaria clinical data have been reported to be useful in monitoring malaria change over time and as a marker of malaria exposure. This study assessed the total immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels to Plasmodium falciparum schizont among infants (5-17 months), estimated malaria incidence using routine health facility-based surveillance data and predicted trend relation between anti-schizont antibodies and malaria incidence in Bagamoyo. Methods: 252 serum samples were used for assessment of total IgG by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and results were expressed in arbitrary units (AU). 147/252 samples were collected in 2021 during a blood-stage malaria vaccine trial [ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04318002], and 105/252 were archived samples of malaria vaccine trial conducted in 2012 [ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00866619]. Malaria incidence was calculated from outpatient clinic data of malaria rapid test or blood smear positive results retrieved from District-Health-Information-Software-2 (DHIS2) between 2013 and 2020. Cross-sectional data from both studies were analysed using STATA version 14. Results: this study demonstrated a decline in total anti-schizont IgG levels from 490.21AU in 2012 to 97.07AU in 2021 which was related to a fall in incidence from 58.25 cases/1000 person-year in 2013 to 14.28 cases/1000 person-year in 2020. We also observed a significant difference in incidence when comparing high and low malaria transmission areas and by gender. However, we did not observe differences when comparing total anti-schizont antibodies by gender and study year. Conclusion: total anti-schizont antibody levels appear to be an important serological marker of exposure for assessing the dynamic of malaria transmission in infants living in malaria-endemic regions.

Implication of asymptomatic and clinical Plasmodium falciparum infections on biomarkers of iron status among school-aged children in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Iron status is considered as a continuum from an iron deficiency with anaemia, without anaemia, varying amounts of stored iron to iron overload. The burden of Plasmodium falciparum infections is typically high among school-aged children (SAC). Nonetheless, SAC are often less likely to be covered by malaria interventions, making them a group with an untreated reservoir of parasite transmission. This study aimed to assess the effects of asymptomatic and clinical malaria infections on biochemical markers of iron status among SAC in Malawi. METHODS: Data from the 2015-2016 Malawi Micronutrient Survey (MNS) was used and multivariable logistic regression models using a generalized estimating equation to account for the complex cluster survey design were constructed. Blood samples of 684 children aged 5 to 14 years old were evaluated for clinical and asymptomatic malaria infections. Furthermore, blood samples were used to estimate haemoglobin (Hb), serum ferritin (SF) and, soluble transferrin receptors (sTfR) concentrations. RESULTS: Of the 684 SAC analysed, approximately 42% had asymptomatic malaria, while 41.0% had clinical malaria. Anaemia (low Hb levels), iron deficiency (low SF concentration), and functional iron deficiency (high sTfR levels) were found in 20%, 5%, and 30% of the children, respectively. School-aged children with asymptomatic malaria had increased odds of being anaemic (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 3.71, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.29-5.99) and increased levels of sTfR (aOR: 3.00, 95% CI 2.01-4.47). Similarly, SAC with clinical malaria had increased odds of being anaemic (aOR: 3.54, 95% CI 2.19-5.72) and increased levels of sTfR (aOR: 3.02, 95% CI 2.02-4.52). CONCLUSIONS: Both asymptomatic and clinical malaria were independent risk factors for anaemia and functional iron deficiency (FID). The notion that asymptomatic and clinical malaria were associated with both anaemia and FID underscores the need for public health programmers to consider adding mass screening and treatment for malaria to existing school-based health programmes.

Anti-Gametocyte Antigen Humoral Immunity and Gametocytemia During Treatment of Uncomplicated Falciparum Malaria: A Multi-National Study.

Introduction: Understanding the human immune response to Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes and its association with gametocytemia is essential for understanding the transmission of malaria as well as progressing transmission blocking vaccine candidates. Methods: In a multi-national clinical efficacy trial of artemisinin therapies (13 sites of varying transmission over South-East Asia and Africa), we measured Immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses to recombinant P. falciparum gametocyte antigens expressed on the gametocyte plasma membrane and leading transmission blocking vaccine candidates Pfs230 (Pfs230c and Pfs230D1M) and Pfs48/45 at enrolment in 1,114 participants with clinical falciparum malaria. Mixed effects linear and logistic regression were used to determine the association between gametocyte measures (gametocytemia and gametocyte density) and antibody outcomes at enrolment. Results: Microscopy detectable gametocytemia was observed in 11% (127/1,114) of participants at enrolment, and an additional 9% (95/1,114) over the follow-up period (up to day 42) (total 20% of participants [222/1,114]). IgG levels in response to Pfs230c, Pfs48/45 and Pfs230D1M varied across study sites at enrolment (p < 0.001), as did IgG seroprevalence for anti-Pfs230c and D1M IgG (p < 0.001), but not for anti-Pfs48/45 IgG (p = 0.159). In adjusted analyses, microscopy detectable gametocytemia at enrolment was associated with an increase in the odds of IgG seropositivity to the three gametocyte antigens (Pfs230c OR [95% CI], p: 1.70 [1.10, 2.62], 0.017; Pfs48/45: 1.45 [0.85, 2.46], 0.174; Pfs230D1M: 1.70 [1.03, 2.80], 0.037), as was higher gametocyte density at enrolment (per two-fold change in gametocyte density Pfs230c OR [95% CI], p: 1.09 [1.02, 1.17], 0.008; Pfs48/45: 1.05 [0.98, 1.13], 0.185; Pfs230D1M: 1.07 [0.99, 1.14], 0.071). Conclusion: Pfs230 and Pfs48/45 antibodies are naturally immunogenic targets associated with patent gametocytemia and increasing gametocyte density across multiple malaria endemic settings, including regions with emerging artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum.

Analysis of Recurrent Times-to-Clinical Malaria Episodes and Plasmodium falciparum Parasitemia: A Joint Modeling Approach Applied to a Cohort Data.

Background: Recurrent clinical malaria episodes due to Plasmodium falciparum parasite infection are common in endemic regions. With each infection, acquired immunity develops, making subsequent disease episodes less likely. To capture the effect of acquired immunity to malaria, it may be necessary to model recurrent clinical disease episodes jointly with P. falciparum parasitemia data. A joint model of longitudinal parasitemia and time-to-first clinical malaria episode (single-event joint model) may be inaccurate because acquired immunity is lost when subsequent episodes are excluded. This study's informativeness assessed whether joint modeling of recurrent clinical malaria episodes and parasitemia is more accurate than a single-event joint model where the subsequent episodes are ignored. Methods: The single event joint model comprised Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) sub-model for time-to-first clinical malaria episode and Negative Binomial (NB) mixed-effects sub-model for the longitudinal parasitemia. The recurrent events joint model extends the survival sub-model to a Gamma shared frailty model to include all recurrent clinical episodes. The models were applied to cohort data from Malawi. Simulations were also conducted to assess the performance of the model under different conditions. Results: The recurrent events joint model, which yielded higher hazard ratios of clinical malaria, was more precise and in most cases produced smaller standard errors than the single-event joint model; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42, [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22, 2.03] vs. HR = 1.29, [95% CI:1.60, 2.45] among participants who reported not to use LLINs every night compared to those who used the nets every night; HR = 0.96, [ 95% CI: 0.94, 0.98] vs. HR = 0.81, [95% CI: 0.75, 0.88] for each 1-year increase in participants' age; and HR = 1.36, [95% CI: 1.05, 1.75] vs. HR = 1.10, [95% CI: 0.83, 4.11] for observations during the rainy season compared to the dry season. Conclusion: The recurrent events joint model in this study provides a way of estimating the risk of recurrent clinical malaria in a cohort where the effect of immunity on malaria disease acquired due to P. falciparum parasitemia with aging is captured. The simulation study has shown that if correctly specified, the recurrent events joint model can give risk estimates with low bias.

Mapping the endemicity and seasonality of clinical malaria for intervention targeting in Haiti using routine case data.

Towards the goal of malaria elimination on Hispaniola, the National Malaria Control Program of Haiti and its international partner organisations are conducting a campaign of interventions targeted to high-risk communities prioritised through evidence-based planning. Here we present a key piece of this planning: an up-to-date, fine-scale endemicity map and seasonality profile for Haiti informed by monthly case counts from 771 health facilities reporting from across the country throughout the 6-year period from January 2014 to December 2019. To this end, a novel hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework was developed in which a latent, pixel-level incidence surface with spatio-temporal innovations is linked to the observed case data via a flexible catchment sub-model designed to account for the absence of data on case household locations. These maps have focussed the delivery of indoor residual spraying and focal mass drug administration in the Grand'Anse Department in South-Western Haiti.

Fine-scale Spatiotemporal Mapping of Asymptomatic and Clinical Plasmodium falciparum Infections: Epidemiological Evidence for Targeted Malaria Elimination Interventions.

BACKGROUND: A detailed understanding of the contribution of the asymptomatic Plasmodium reservoir to the occurrence of clinical malaria at individual and community levels is needed to guide effective elimination interventions. This study investigated the relationship between asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum carriage and subsequent clinical malaria episodes in the Dielmo and Ndiop villages in Senegal. METHODS: The study used a total of 2792 venous and capillary blood samples obtained from asymptomatic individuals and clinical malaria datasets collected from 2013 to 2016. Mapping, spatial clustering of infections, and risk analysis were performed using georeferenced households. RESULTS: High incidences of clinical malaria episodes were observed to occur predominantly in households of asymptomatic P falciparum carriers. A statistically significant association was found between asymptomatic carriage in a household and subsequent episode of clinical malaria occurring in that household for each individual year (P values were 0.0017, 6 × 10-5, 0.005, and 0.008 for the years 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 respectively) and the combined years (P = 8.5 × 10-8), which was not found at the individual level. In both villages, no significant patterns of spatial clustering of P falciparum clinical cases were found, but there was a higher risk of clinical episodes <25 m from asymptomatic individuals in Ndiop attributable to clustering within households. CONCLUSION: The findings provide strong epidemiological evidence linking the asymptomatic P falciparum reservoir to clinical malaria episodes at household scale in Dielmo and Ndiop villagers. This argues for a likely success of a mass testing and treatment intervention to move towards the elimination of malaria in the villages of Dielmo and Ndiop.

Individual-level variations in malaria susceptibility and acquisition of clinical protection.

After decades of research, our understanding of when and why individuals infected with Plasmodium falciparum develop clinical malaria is still limited. Correlates of immune protection are often sought through prospective cohort studies, where measured host factors are correlated against the incidence of clinical disease over a set period of time. However, robustly inferring individual-level protection from these population-level findings has proved difficult due to small effect sizes and high levels of variance underlying such data. In order to better understand the nature of these inter-individual variations, we analysed the long-term malaria epidemiology of children ≤12 years old growing up under seasonal exposure to the parasite in the sub-location of Junju, Kenya. Despite the cohort's limited geographic expanse (ca. 3km x 10km), our data reveal a high degree of spatial and temporal variability in malaria prevalence and incidence rates, causing individuals to experience varying levels of exposure to the parasite at different times during their life. Analysing individual-level infection histories further reveal an unexpectedly high variability in the rate at which children experience clinical malaria episodes. Besides exposure to the parasite, measured as disease prevalence in the surrounding area, we find that the birth time of year has an independent effect on the individual's risk of experiencing a clinical episode. Furthermore, our analyses reveal that those children with a history of an above average number of episodes are more likely to experience further episodes during the upcoming transmission season. These findings are indicative of phenotypic differences in the rates by which children acquire clinical protection to malaria and offer important insights into the natural variability underlying malaria epidemiology.

10-year longitudinal study of malaria in children: Insights into acquisition and maintenance of naturally acquired immunity.

Background: Studies of long-term malaria cohorts have provided essential insights into how Plasmodium falciparum interacts with humans, and influences the development of antimalarial immunity. Immunity to malaria is acquired gradually after multiple infections, some of which present with clinical symptoms. However, there is considerable variation in the number of clinical episodes experienced by children of the same age within the same cohort. Understanding this variation in clinical symptoms and how it relates to the development of naturally acquired immunity is crucial in identifying how and when some children stop experiencing further malaria episodes. Where variability in clinical episodes may result from different rates of acquisition of immunity, or from variable exposure to the parasite. Methods: Using data from a longitudinal cohort of children residing in an area of moderate P. falciparum transmission in Kilifi district, Kenya, we fitted cumulative episode curves as monotonic-increasing splines, to 56 children under surveillance for malaria from the age of 5 to 15. Results: There was large variability in the accumulation of numbers of clinical malaria episodes experienced by the children, despite being of similar age and living in the same general location. One group of children from a particular sub-region of the cohort stopped accumulating clinical malaria episodes earlier than other children in the study. Despite lack of further clinical episodes of malaria, these children had higher asymptomatic parasite densities and higher antibody titres to a panel of P. falciparum blood-stage antigens. Conclusions: This suggests development of clinical immunity rather than lack of exposure to the parasite, and supports the view that this immunity to malaria disease is maintained by a greater exposure to P. falciparum, and thus higher parasite burdens. Our study illustrates the complexity of anti-malaria immunity and underscores the need for analyses which can sufficiently reflect the heterogeneity within endemic populations.

Adaptive interventions for optimizing malaria control: an implementation study protocol for a block-cluster randomized, sequential multiple assignment trial.

BACKGROUND: In the past two decades, the massive scale-up of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) has led to significant reductions in malaria mortality and morbidity. Nonetheless, the malaria burden remains high, and a dozen countries in Africa show a trend of increasing malaria incidence over the past several years. This underscores the need to improve the effectiveness of interventions by optimizing first-line intervention tools and integrating newly approved products into control programs. Because transmission settings and vector ecologies vary from place to place, malaria interventions should be adapted and readapted over time in response to evolving malaria risks. An adaptive approach based on local malaria epidemiology and vector ecology may lead to significant reductions in malaria incidence and transmission risk. METHODS/DESIGN: This study will use a longitudinal block-cluster sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) design with longitudinal outcome measures for a period of 3 years to develop an adaptive intervention for malaria control in western Kenya, the first adaptive trial for malaria control. The primary outcome is clinical malaria incidence rate. This will be a two-stage trial with 36 clusters for the initial trial. At the beginning of stage 1, all clusters will be randomized with equal probability to either LLIN, piperonyl butoxide-treated LLIN (PBO Nets), or LLIN + IRS by block randomization based on their respective malaria risks. Intervention effectiveness will be evaluated with 12 months of follow-up monitoring. At the end of the 12-month follow-up, clusters will be assessed for "response" versus "non-response" to PBO Nets or LLIN + IRS based on the change in clinical malaria incidence rate and a pre-defined threshold value of cost-effectiveness set by the Ministry of Health. At the beginning of stage 2, if an intervention was effective in stage 1, then the intervention will be continued. Non-responders to stage 1 PBO Net treatment will be randomized equally to either PBO Nets + LSM (larval source management) or an intervention determined by an enhanced reinforcement learning method. Similarly, non-responders to stage 1 LLIN + IRS treatment will be randomized equally to either LLIN + IRS + LSM or PBO Nets + IRS. There will be an 18-month evaluation follow-up period for stage 2 interventions. We will monitor indoor and outdoor vector abundance using light traps. Clinical malaria will be monitored through active case surveillance. Cost-effectiveness of the interventions will be assessed using Q-learning. DISCUSSION: This novel adaptive intervention strategy will optimize existing malaria vector control tools while allowing for the integration of new control products and approaches in the future to find the most cost-effective malaria control strategies in different settings. Given the urgent global need for optimization of malaria control tools, this study can have far-reaching implications for malaria control and elimination. TRIAL REGISTRATION: US National Institutes of Health, study ID NCT04182126 . Registered on 26 November 2019.

Clinical malaria and the potential risk of anaemia among preschool-aged children: a population-based study of the 2015-2016 Malawi micronutrient survey.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia and malaria are common and life-threatening diseases among preschool-aged children in many tropical and subtropical areas, and Malawi is no exception. Accordingly, this study aimed to examine the association of referral clinical malaria with anemia (hemoglobin [Hb] < 110 g/L) in preschool-aged children in Malawi. METHODS: Using cross-sectional data obtained from the 2015-2016 Malawi Micronutrient Survey (MNS), multivariate logistic regression models were constructed using surveylogistic to account for the complex survey design. Blood samples of 1051 children aged 6-59 months were evaluated for malaria (using rapid diagnostic test [RDT] - SD BIOLINE Malaria Ag P.f/Pan test histidine-rich protein (HRP-II)™), Hb (using HemoCue 301), α-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), and serum ferritin biomarkers (using simple sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technique, ELISA) and inherited blood disorders from dry blood samples (DBS) using polymerize chain reaction (PCR). Diagnosis of clinical malaria was made on the basis of fever and a positive rapid diagnostic test (RDT). RESULTS: Of the 1051 PSC analysed, 29% had anaemia while 24.4% had a referral to the hospital due to malaria. After adjustments for known confounders, PSC with a history of referral clinical malaria had increased odds of being anaemic (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 4.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.90-7.40), P <  0.0001. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that clinical malaria increased the risk of anaemia in PSC. Thus, elimination of malaria-causing parasites from the PSC's blood should be rapid and complete in order to prevent the progression of uncomplicated malaria to a chronic infection that can lead to the development of malaria-related anaemia.

Epidemiological risk factors for clinical malaria infection in the highlands of Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the complex heterogeneity of risk factors that can contribute to an increased risk of malaria at the individual and household level will enable more effective use of control measures. The objective of this study was to understand individual and household factors that influence clinical malaria infection among individuals in the highlands of Western Kenya. METHODS: This was a matched case-control study undertaken in the Western Kenya highlands. Clinical malaria cases were recruited from health facilities and matched to asymptomatic individuals from the community who served as controls. Each participant was screened for malaria using microscopy. Follow-up surveys were conducted with individual households to collect socio-economic data. The houses were also checked using pyrethrum spray catches to collect mosquitoes. RESULTS: A total of 302 malaria cases were matched to 604 controls during the surveillance period. Mosquito densities were similar in the houses of both groups. A greater percentage of people in the control group (64.6%) used insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) compared to the families of malaria cases (48.3%). Use of ITNs was associated with lower level of clinical malaria episodes (odds ratio 0.51; 95% CI 0.39-0.68; P < 0.0001). Low income was the most important factor associated with higher malaria infections (adj. OR 4.70). Use of malaria prophylaxis was the most important factor associated with less malaria infections (adj OR 0.36). Mother's (not fathers) employment status (adj OR 0.48) and education level (adj OR 0.54) was important malaria risk factor. Houses with open eaves was an important malaria risk factor (adj OR 1.72). CONCLUSION: The identification of risk factors for clinical malaria infection provides information on the local malaria epidemiology and has the potential to lead to a more effective and targeted use of malaria control measures. These risk factors could be used to assess why some individuals acquire clinical malaria whilst others do not and to inform how intervention could be scaled at the local level.

Joint modelling of time-to-clinical malaria and parasite count in a cohort in an endemic area.

BACKGROUND: In malaria endemic areas such as sub-Saharan Africa, repeated exposure to malaria results in acquired immunity to clinical disease but not infection. In prospective studies, time-to-clinical malaria and longitudinal parasite count trajectory are often analysed separately which may result in inefficient estimates since these two processes can be associated. Including parasite count as a time-dependent covariate in a model of time-to-clinical malaria episode may also be inaccurate because while clinical malaria disease frequently leads to treatment which may instantly affect the level of parasite count, standard time-to-event models require that time-dependent covariates be external to the event process. We investigated whether jointly modelling time-to-clinical malaria disease and longitudinal parasite count improves precision in risk factor estimates and assessed the strength of association between the hazard of clinical malaria and parasite count. METHODS: Using a cohort data of participants enrolled with uncomplicated malaria in Malawi, a conventional Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) model of time-to-first clinical malaria episode with time-dependent parasite count was compared with three competing joint models. The joint models had different association structures linking a quasi-Poisson mixed-effects of parasite count and event-time Cox PH sub-models. RESULTS: There were 120 participants of whom 115 (95.8%) had >1 follow-up visit and 100 (87.5%) experienced the episode. Adults >15 years being reference, log hazard ratio for children <5 years was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.17, 1.26) in the joint model with best fit vs. 0.62 (95% CI: 0.04, 1.18) from the conventional Cox PH model. The log hazard ratio for the 5-15 years was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.22, 1.22) in the joint model vs.0.63 (95% CI: 0.11, 1.17) in the Cox PH model. The area under parasite count trajectory was strongly associated with the risk of clinical malaria, with a unit increase corresponding to-0.0012 (95% CI: -0.0021, -0.0004) decrease in log hazard ratio. CONCLUSION: Jointly modelling longitudinal parasite count and time-to-clinical malaria disease improves precision in log hazard ratio estimates compared to conventional time-dependent Cox PH model. The improved precision of joint modelling may improve study efficiency and allow for design of clinical trials with relatively lower sample sizes with increased power.

Longitudinal analysis of gamma delta T cell subsets during malaria infections in Malian adults.

BACKGROUND: Immunity that limits malarial disease is acquired over time, but adults living in endemic areas continue to become infected and can require treatment for clinical illness. Gamma delta (γδ) T cells, particularly the Vδ2+ subset, have been associated with development of clinical malaria in children. In this study, the dynamics of total γδ T cells, Vδ2+ and Vδ2- T cells were measured during a malaria transmission season in Malian adults. METHODS: This study explored γδ T cell dynamics and Plasmodium falciparum infection outcomes over the course of the malaria transmission season in Malian adults enrolled in the placebo arm of a double-blind randomized vaccine trial. All volunteers were treated with anti-malarial drugs prior to the start of the transmission season and blood smears were assessed for P. falciparum infection every 2 weeks from July 2014 to January 2015. The study participants were stratified as either asymptomatic infections or clinical malaria cases. Vδ2+ and Vδ2- γδ T cell frequencies and activation (as measured by CD38 expression) were measured in all study participants at baseline and then every 2 months using a whole blood flow cytometry assay. RESULTS: Forty of the forty-three subjects became infected with P. falciparum and, of those, 21 individuals were diagnosed with clinical malaria at least once during the season. The γδ T cell percentage and activation increased over the duration of the transmission season. Both the Vδ2+ and Vδ2- γδ T cells were activated by P. falciparum infection. CONCLUSION: γδ T cells increased during a malaria transmission season and this expansion was noted in both the Vδ2+ and Vδ2- γδ T cells. However, neither expansion or activation of either γδ T cell subsets discriminated study participants that had asymptomatic infections from those that had clinical malaria cases.

Mass Drug Administration With Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and Malaria Transmission Dynamics in The Gambia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) may further reduce malaria transmission in low-transmission areas. The impact of MDA on the dynamics of malaria transmission was determined in a prospective cohort study. METHODS: Annual rounds of MDA with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) were implemented were implemented in 2014 and 2015 in six village pairs before the malaria transmission season. Blood samples were collected from residents between July and December for microscopy and nested PCR. Incidence and prevalence of infection, clinical disease, and risk of malaria reinfection post-MDA were determined. RESULTS: Coverage of three DP doses was 68.2% (2014) and 65.6% (2015), compliance was greater than 80%. Incidence of infection was significantly lower in 2014 (incidence rate [IR] = 0.2 per person year [PPY]) than in 2013 (IR = 1.1 PPY; P < .01); monthly infection prevalence declined in the first three months post-MDA. Clinical malaria incidence was lower in 2014 (IR = 0.1 PPY) and 2015 (IR = 0.2 PPY) than in 2013 (IR = 0.4 PPY; P < .01), but remained higher in eastern Gambia. Individuals infected before MDA had a 2-fold higher odds of reinfection post-MDA (adjusted odds ratio = 2.5, 95% confidence interval 1.5-4.3; P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: MDA reduced malaria infection and clinical disease during the first months. The reduction was maintained in low-transmission areas, but not in eastern Gambia. Annual MDA could be followed by focal MDA targeting individuals infected during the dry season. Repeated MDA rounds, some during the dry season over larger geographical areas, may result in a more marked and sustained decrease of malaria transmission.

Evaluating the impact of screening plus eave tubes on malaria transmission compared to current best practice in central Côte d'Ivoire: a two armed cluster randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Access to long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) has increased and malaria has decreased globally, but malaria transmission remains high in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and insecticide resistance threatens current progress. Eave tubes are a new tool for the targeted delivery of insecticides against mosquitoes attempting to enter houses. The primary objective of this trial is to test whether screening plus eave tubes (SET) provides protection against malaria, on top of universal coverage with LLINs in an area of intense pyrethroid resistance. The trial will also assess acceptability and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. METHODS/DESIGN: A two-armed, cluster randomized controlled trial will be conducted to evaluate the effect of SET on clinical malaria incidence in children living in central Côte d'Ivoire. Forty villages will be selected based on population size and the proportion of houses suitable for modification with SET. Using restricted randomization, half the villages will be assigned to the treatment arm (SET + LLINs) and the remainder will be assigned to the control arm (LLINs only). In both arms, LLINs will be distributed and in the treatment arm, householders will be offered SET. Fifty children aged six months to eight years old will be enrolled from randomly selected households in each of the 40 villages. Cohorts will be cleared of malaria parasites at the start of the study and one year after recruitment, and will be monitored for clinical malaria case incidence by active case detection over two years. Mosquito densities will be assessed using CDC light traps and human landing catches and a subset of Anopheles mosquitoes will be examined for parity status and tested for sporozoite infection. Acceptability of SET will be monitored using surveys and focus groups. Cost-effectiveness analysis will measure the incremental cost per case averted and per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted of adding SET to LLINs. Economic and financial costs will be estimated from societal and provider perspective using standard economic evaluation methods. DISCUSSION: This study will be the first evaluation of the epidemiological impact of SET. Trial findings will show whether SET is a viable, cost-effective technology for malaria control in Côte d'Ivoire and possibly elsewhere. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN18145556 , registered on 01 February 2017 - retrospectively registered.

IgG antibodies to synthetic GPI are biomarkers of immune-status to both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria in young children.

BACKGROUND: Further reduction in malaria prevalence and its eventual elimination would be greatly facilitated by the development of biomarkers of exposure and/or acquired immunity to malaria, as well as the deployment of effective vaccines against Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. A better understanding of the acquisition of immunity in naturally-exposed populations is essential for the identification of antigens useful as biomarkers, as well as to inform rational vaccine development. METHODS: ELISA was used to measure total IgG to a synthetic form of glycosylphosphatidylinositol from P. falciparum (PfGPI) in a cohort of 1-3 years old Papua New Guinea children with well-characterized individual differences in exposure to P. falciparum and P. vivax blood-stage infections. The relationship between IgG levels to PfGPI and measures of recent and past exposure to P. falciparum and P. vivax infections was investigated, as well as the association between antibody levels and prospective risk of clinical malaria over 16 months of follow-up. RESULTS: Total IgG levels to PfGPI were low in the young children tested. Antibody levels were higher in the presence of P. falciparum or P. vivax infections, but short-lived. High IgG levels were associated with higher risk of P. falciparum malaria (IRR 1.33-1.66, P = 0.008-0.027), suggesting that they are biomarkers of increased exposure to P. falciparum infections. Given the cross-reactive nature of antibodies to PfGPI, high IgG levels were also associated with reduced risk of P. vivax malaria (IRR 0.65-0.67, P = 0.039-0.044), indicating that these antibodies are also markers of acquired immunity to P. vivax. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights that in young children, IgG to PfGPI might be a useful marker of immune-status to both P. falciparum and P. vivax infections, and potentially useful to help malaria control programs to identify populations at-risk. Further functional studies are necessary to confirm the potential of PfGPI as a target for vaccine development.