RESUMO
This study contributes a first comparison of current and potential threats to Natural World Heritage Sites from climate change, as assessed by experts, when site and location characteristics (size, year of inscription to the World Heritage list, continent, climate zone and kind of site) are controlled for. The probability of a threat as well as its intensity is analysed. Another novelty lies in the use of data from the IUCN Conservation Outlook Assessment, covering all 245 Natural and Mixed World Heritage Sites across the world for three points in time: 2014, 2017 and 2020. The threat of climate change is broadly defined and includes temperature extremes, rising temperatures, disappearing glaciers, coral bleaching, droughts, desertification, and rising sea levels. Results based on a simultaneous Probit model with random effects show that the probability of actual and potential climate change threats increases over time, but with differences for size, kind of site and location. The probability that a threat is identified is highest for marine and coastal sites, and for those in Latin America, while it is significantly lower for sites on the African continent. Larger sites have a higher probability of being assessed as at risk and the severity of threats is found to be lower for recently inscribed sites. The rate at which the likelihood of a threat assessment increases is consistent for both current and future situations, while the probability of the most severe threat is larger for the current than the future period. A serious threat from climate change is assessed as highest for locations in the tropical monsoon (current period) or the tropical savannah climate (future period). Estimations also show that pure descriptive statistics or bivariate correlations may not correctly identify the risk or the dignity of a threat.
RESUMO
The Academic Freedom Index is the first conceptually thorough assessment of academic freedom worldwide and a times series dataset going back to 1900. While some previous datasets exist, they are geographically limited and methodologically or conceptually insufficient to offer a comprehensive picture of the levels of academic freedom across time and space. This paper introduces the new expert-coded dataset that includes the overall Academic Freedom Index alongside several specific indicators, to which more than 2050 country experts around the world have contributed and which is freely available as part of V-Dem's time-series data releases. The paper discusses its advantages compared to other types of data on academic freedom, details the conceptualization of the new indicators, and offers a content and convergent validation of the results. The dataset provides ample opportunities for scholars to conduct in-depth research on academic freedom and its infringements, and for policymakers and advocates to monitor and analyze patterns and trends of academic freedom around the world.
RESUMO
Objective - to evaluate the practical solution of forensic medical problems in cases of fatal multiple gunshot wounds. The materials of 426 forensic medical expert studies of fatal gunshot wounds were studied. The reasons for the insufficient realization of practical expert problems' solution have been established. The relevance of further scientific and experimental research was confirmed to test traditional criteria and search for new ones for expert assessment of gunshot injuries. In modern conditions, an expert assessment of multiple gunshot injuries should be based on the following principles: widespread introduction of experimental and simulation methods, attraction of methods of applied mathematics, solving practical expert problems in the form of private scientific research, evaluating the results of expert research on the basis of strict adherence to the laws of formal logic.