Predictive model for identification of gangrenous or perforated appendicitis in adults: a multicenter retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Gangrene and perforation are severe complications of acute appendicitis, associated with a higher mortality rate compared to uncomplicated appendicitis. Accurate preoperative identification of Gangrenous or perforated appendicitis (GPA) is crucial for timely surgical intervention. METHODS: This retrospective multicenter study includes 796 patients who underwent appendectomy. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses are used to develop a nomogram model for predicting GPA based on laboratory tests and computed tomography (CT) findings. The model is validated using an external dataset. RESULTS: Seven independent predictors were included in the nomogram: white blood cell count, lymphocyte count, D-dimer, serum glucose, albumin, maximum outer diameter of the appendix, and presence of appendiceal fecalith. The nomogram achieved good discrimination and calibration in both the training and testing sets. In the training set, the AUC was 0.806 (95%CI: 0.763-0.849), and the sensitivity and specificity were 82.1% and 66.9%, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good calibration (P = 0.7378). In the testing set, the AUC was 0.799 (95%CI: 0.741-0.856), and the sensitivity and specificity were 70.5% and 75.3%, respectively. Decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram. CONCLUSION: The laboratory test-CT nomogram model can effectively identify GPA patients, aiding in surgical decision-making and improving patient outcomes.

Development of a scoring model based on objective factors to predict gangrenous/perforated appendicitis.

BACKGROUND: The mortality rate of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis is higher than that of uncomplicated appendicitis. However, non-operative management of such patients is ineffective. This necessitates their careful exam at presentation to identify gangrenous/perforated appendicitis and aid surgical decision-making. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a new scoring model based on objective findings to predict gangrenous/perforated appendicitis in adults. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 151 patients with acute appendicitis who underwent emergency surgery between January 2014 and June 2021. We performed univariate and multivariate analyses to identify independent objective predictors of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis, and a new scoring model was developed based on logistic regression coefficients for independent predictors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were performed to assess the discrimination and calibration of the model. Finally, the scores were classified into three categories based on the probability of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis. RESULTS: Among the 151 patients, 85 and 66 patients were diagnosed with gangrenous/perforated appendicitis and uncomplicated appendicitis, respectively. Using the multivariate analysis, C-reactive protein level, maximal outer diameter of the appendix, and presence of appendiceal fecalith were identified as independent predictors for developing gangrenous/perforated appendicitis. Our novel scoring model was developed based on three independent predictors and ranged from 0 to 3. The area under the ROC curve was 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.721-0.863), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good calibration of the novel scoring model (P = 0.716). Three risk categories were classified: low, moderate, and high risk with probabilities of 30.9%, 63.8%, and 94.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our scoring model can objectively and reproducibly identify gangrenous/perforated appendicitis with good diagnostic accuracy and help in determining the degree of urgency and in making decisions about appendicitis management.

Shabir's "SMART-LAB" score for predicting complicated appendicitis-a prospective study.

Objectives: Complicated appendicitis needs an aggressive and urgent management, hence there is need of an efficient scoring system for predicting complicated appendicitis. With this in mind, the author developed the present scoring system for predicting complicated acute appendicitis. The study aimed to assess the suitability of this novel (Shabir's SMART-LAB) score for predicting diagnosis of complicated appendicitis. Material and Methods: In this prospective study, a novel score designated as "SMART-LAB" SCORE, proposed by the author (Shabir) based on his previous observations was calculated in all patients. This score includes sonography (S), migratory right iliac fossa pain (M), anorexia (A), rebound tenderness (R), tenderness (T), leukocytosis (L), Acute phase protein-CRP (A), and serum bilirubin (B). Results: Of a total of 150 patients included in this study, 52 cases turned out to be perforated and/or gangrenous appendicitis on intraoperative/histopathologic examination. The most commonly affected age group was 10-19 years. SMART-LAB score of >9 was present in significantly higher number of patients in complicated (perforated and gangrenous) appendicitis than uncomplicated appendicitis (p value<0.001 i.e., highly significant). Hence, high likelihood of complicated appendicitis is reflected by a score >9 (with a sensitivity= 80.7%, specificity= 92.9%, PPV= 85.7%, NPV= 90.1%, and accuracy= 88.7%), while a score 7-9 needs further confirmation to reach a conclusion, and for a score of <7, there is low likelihood of complicated appendicitis. Conclusion: It seems that this novel score (Shabir's SMART-LAB score) is a reasonably good tool to predict the diagnosis of complicated appendicitis. Early diagnosis of appendiceal perforation is important to limit the associated abdominal sepsis.

Evaluation of role of hyperbilirubinemia as a new diagnostic marker of complicated appendicitis.

BACKGROUND: In appendicitis, elevated intra-luminal pressure and ischemic necrosis of mucosa causes tissue gangrene or perforation. This leads to cytotoxin facilitated progressive bacterial invasion or translocation into the hepatic parenchyma through portal system. This phenomenon interferes with the bilirubin excretion into the bile canaliculi. In the present study, establishment of a possible role of hyperbilirubinemia as a marker of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis has been studied. METHODS: After matching the inclusion and exclusion criteria, all cases of clinically diagnosed acute appendicitis were taken for this prospective, single center, observational study. Per-operative diagnosis was confirmed by histopathological examination. RESULTS: Out of 110 subjects of acute appendicitis 41 subjects (37.27%) had hyperbilirubinemia. Out of 35 subjects diagnosed as complicated appendicitis 32 subjects (91.42%) had raised total bilirubin levels, while the remaining 03 (8.58%) had normal levels. Among 75 subjects diagnosed as acute simple appendicitis 09 subjects (12%) had raised total bilirubin level, while the remaining 66 subjects (88%) had normal levels. It was Mixed Type of Hyperbilirubinemia in gangrenous/perforated appendicitis. The sensitivity of Total serum bilirubin in predicting complicated appendicitis was found 91.43% (76.942% to 98.196%), where as the specificity of this test was 88.00% (78.439% to 94.363%). positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 78.03% and 95.65% respectively. Positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were found to be 7.619 and 0.097 respectively taking prevalence of complicated appendicitis be 31.80%. Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was obtained which shows optimal criterion at Total Bilirubin Level 1.06 mg/dl where sensitivity was 91.43% and specificity was 97.33% at 95% confidence interval with 31.8% disease prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: This is to conclude that Serum bilirubin level estimation, which is a simple, cheap and easily available laboratory test, can be added to the routine investigations in clinically suspected cases of acute appendicitis for early diagnosis of complications. Trial registration Registered with Clinical Trials Registry-India (ICMR-NIMS) with Registration number CTRI/2019/05/018879 Dated 01/05/2019. This was a prospective trial. Trial URL: http://ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/pdf_generate.php?trialid=33113&EncHid=99780.32960&modid=1&compid=19%27,%2733113det%27 .

Hyperbilirubinemia as a predictor of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: THE AIMS OF THE STUDY WERE: 1) to establish the role of hyperbilirubinemia as a new diagnostic tool to predict gangrenous/perforated appendicitis; and 2) to compare other variables such as age, duration of symptoms, clinical profile, white blood cell count, C-reactive protein and ultrasound in a similar role. METHODS: This is a prospective study conducted on 50 consecutive cases of acute appendicitis admitted to the emergency ward. These were subjected to investigations to support the diagnosis. These cases were also subjected to liver function tests and clinical diagnosis was confirmed perioperatively and post-operatively by histopathological examination. Their clinical and investigative data were compiled and analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed using either chi square test or fisher's exact test. The level of significance was set at P< 0.05. RESULTS: Total serum bilirubin including both direct and indirect was found to be significantly increased in case of acute suppurative appendicitis. Serum bilirubin was much higher (P <0.000) in cases of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis. CONCLUSION: Serum bilirubin is an important adjunct in diagnosing the presence of gangrenous/perforated appendicitis.