New guidelines reduce the risk of hospitalization for adult patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria: An observational, multicenter, retrospective French study.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the impact of malaria declaration year (before or after 2017) on the frequency of hospitalization in metropolitan France of patients with uncomplicated non-vomiting P.falciparum malaria. PATIENTS AND METHODS: An observational, multicenter, retrospective study was carried out, using the database from the French National Reference Centre for Malaria. Descriptive analysis and multivariate analysis by logistic regression were performed using the multiple imputation by chained equation method to handle missing data. RESULTS: More than 2000 (2184) uncomplicated non-vomiting P.falciparum malaria cases were recorded. Our multivariate analysis showed an association between the year 2018 and reduced risk of hospitalization (OR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.81-0.97). CONCLUSION: Compared to 2016, during 2018 we observed a trend toward ambulatory care for patients presenting with uncomplicated non-vomiting P.falciparum malaria.

Iron therapy effect on chronic heart failure and iron-deficiency anemia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure complicated with iron deficiency is associated with impaired functional capacity, poor quality of life, increased hospitalization, and mortality. This systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to assess the effect of oral and intravenous iron therapy on functional capacity, hospitalization risk, and mortality risk in patients with chronic heart failure and iron-deficiency anemia. METHODS: Search for published scientific articles using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting, Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) method conducted on Cochrane Library, PubMed Central, and Medline databases published in the last 20 years. Further systematic review and meta-analysis using RevMan version 5.4 were performed based on the included published scientific articles. RESULTS: Based on the meta-analysis of included studies, the analytical results of intravenous iron therapy in patient with chronic heart failure and iron-deficiency anemia showed there is 30.82 (MD = 30.82: 95% CI 18.23-43.40) meter change in patient 6MWT, there is likelihood of 0.55 times (55%) (RR = 0.45: 95% CI 0.30-0.68) lower risk of hospitalization and lower risk of mortality (RR = 0.18: 95% CI 0.04-0.78), because heart failure worsening both with statistically significant overall effect compared with placebo. CONCLUSIONS: There is statistically significant effect of intravenous iron therapy to improve patient functional capacity and reduce likelihood of hospitalization risk of 0.55 times (55%) in patient with chronic heart failure and iron-deficiency anemia.

Hospitalization Risk Associated With Emergency Department Reasons for Visit and Patient Age: A Retrospective Evaluation of National Emergency Department Survey Data to Help Identify Potentially Avoidable Emergency Department Visits.

Background: Patients often present to emergency departments (EDs) with concerns that do not require emergency care. Self-triage and other interventions may help some patients decide whether they should be seen in the ED. Symptoms associated with low risk of hospitalization can be identified in national ED data and can inform the design of interventions to reduce avoidable ED visits. Methods: We used the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) data from the United States National Health Care Statistics (NHCS) division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The ED datasets from 2011 through 2020 were combined. Primary reasons for ED visit and the binary field for hospital admission from the ED were used to estimate the proportion of ED patients admitted to the hospital for each reason for visit and age category. Results: There were 221,027 surveyed ED visits during the 10-year data collection with 736 different primary reasons for visit and 23,228 hospitalizations. There were 145 million estimated hospitalizations from 1.37 billion estimated ED visits (10.6%). Inclusion criteria for this study were reasons for visit which had at least 30 ED visits in the sample; there were 396 separate reasons for visit which met this criteria. Of these 396 reasons for visit, 97 had admission percentages less than 2% and another 52 had hospital admissions estimated between 2% and 4%. However, there was a significant increase in hospitalizations within many of the ED reasons for visit in older adults. Conclusion: Reasons for visit from national ED data can be ranked by hospitalization risk. Low-risk symptoms may help healthcare institutions identify potentially avoidable ED visits. Healthcare systems can use this information to help manage potentially avoidable ED visits with interventions designed to apply to their patient population and healthcare access.

Rotavirus vaccination as a public health strategy to reduce the burden of hospitalization: The field experience of Italy (2008-2018).

Rotavirus (RV) infection is a leading cause of severe diarrhea among children younger than 5 years old and a considerable cause of RV gastroenteritis (RVGE) hospitalization. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination in Italy in the reduction of the burden of RV-related disease, estimating the relation between vaccination coverage and hospitalization rates. RVGE-related hospitalizations that occurred in Italy from 2008 to 2018 among children aged 0-35 months were assessed by consulting the Hospital Discharge Record database and including records whose ICD-9-CM diagnosis code was 008.61 in the first or in any diagnosis position. In the 2008-2018 period, a total of 17 535 791 at-risk person-years were considered and 74 211 (423.2 cases × 100 000 per year) RVGE hospitalizations were observed. Higher hospitalization rates occurred in males (456.6 vs. 387.9 × 100 000 per year) and in children aged 1 year (507.8 × 100 000 per year). Poisson regression analysis showed a decrease of -1.25% in hospitalization rates (-1.19% to -1.31%, p < 0.001) per unit increase in vaccination coverage. This is the first study that correlates hospitalization rate reduction with a percentage increase in vaccination coverage. Our findings strongly support RV vaccination as an effective public health strategy for reducing RVGE-related hospitalizations.

The impact of ambient air pollutants on childhood respiratory system disease and the resulting disease burden: a time-series study.

PURPOSE: The effects of air pollution on human health have long been a hot topic of research. For respiratory diseases, a large number of studies have proved that air pollution is one of the main causes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the risk of hospitalization of children with respiratory system diseases (CRSD) caused by six pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, CO, and O3) in Hefei City, and further calculate the disease burden. METHOD: In the first stage, the generalized additive models were combined with the distributed lag non-linear models to evaluate the impact of air pollution on the inpatients for CRSD in Hefei. In the second stage, this study used the cost-of-illness approach to calculate the attributable number of hospitalizations and the extra disease burden. RESULT: Overall, all the six kinds of pollutants had the strongest effects on CRSD inpatients within lag10 days. SO2 and CO caused the highest and lowest harm, respectively, and the RR values were SO2 (lag0-5): 1.1 20 (1.053, 1.191), and CO (lag0-6): 1.002 (1.001, 1.003). During the study period (January 1, 2014 to December 30, 2020), the 7-year cumulative burden of disease was 36.19 million CNY under the WHO air pollution standards. CONCLUSION: In general, we found that six air pollutants were risk factors for CRSD in Hefei City, and create a huge burden of disease.

Younger and Rural Children are More Likely to be Hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 Infections.

Purpose: To identify characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection that are associated with hospitalization in children initially evaluated in a Pediatric Emergency Department (ED). Methods: We identified cases of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients seen in the Arkansas Children's Hospital (ACH) ED or hospitalized between May 27, 2020, and April 28, 2022 using ICD-10 codes within the Pediatric Hospital Information System (PHIS) Database. We compared infection waves for differences in patient characteristics, and used logistic regressions to examine which characteristics led to a higher chance of hospitalization. Findings: We included 681 pre-Delta cases, 673 Delta cases, and 970 Omicron cases. Almost 17% of patients were admitted to the hospital. Compared to Omicron infected children, pre-Delta and Delta infected children were twice as likely to be hospitalized (OR=2.2 and 2.0, respectively; p<0.0001). Infants less than 1 year of age were >3 times as likely to be hospitalized than children ages 5-14 years regardless of wave (OR=3.42; 95%CI=2.36-4.94). Rural children were almost 3 times as likely than urban children to be hospitalized across all waves (OR=2.73; 95%CI=1.97-3.78). Finally, those with a complex condition had nearly a 15-fold increase in odds of admission (OR=14.6; 95%CI=10.6-20.0). Conclusions: Children diagnosed during the pre-Delta or Delta waves were more likely to be hospitalized than those diagnosed during the Omicron wave. Younger and rural patients were more likely to be hospitalized regardless of wave. We suspect lower vaccination rates and larger distances from medical care influenced higher hospitalization rates.

Real-life data on monoclonal antibodies and antiviral drugs in Italian inborn errors of immunity patients during COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, patients with Inborn Errors of Immunity have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 virus showing a spectrum of disease ranging from asymptomatic to severe COVID-19. A fair number of patients did not respond adequately to SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations, thus early therapeutic or prophylactic measures were needed to prevent severe or fatal course or COVID-19 and to reduce the burden of hospitalizations. Methods: Longitudinal, multicentric study on patients with Inborn Errors of Immunity immunized with mRNA vaccines treated with monoclonal antibodies and/or antiviral agents at the first infection and at reinfection by SARS-CoV-2. Analyses of efficacy were performed according to the different circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains. Results: The analysis of the cohort of 192 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients, across 26 months, showed the efficacy of antivirals on the risk of hospitalization, while mabs offered a positive effect on hospitalization, and COVID-19 severity. This protection was consistent across the alpha, delta and early omicron waves, although the emergence of BA.2 reduced the effect of available mabs. Hospitalized patients treated with mabs and antivirals had a lower risk of ICU admission. We reported 16 re-infections with a length of SARS-CoV-2 positivity at second infection shorter among patients treated with mabs. Treatment with antivirals and mabs was safe. Conclusions: The widespread use of specific therapy, vaccination and better access to care might have contributed to mitigate risk of mortality, hospital admission, and severe disease. However, the rapid spread of new viral strains underlines that mabs and antiviral beneficial effects should be re- evaluated over time.

Evaluation of a collaborative ambulatory orthopedic care program for patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis: a comparative observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, the novel orthopedic care program was established by the AOK health insurance fund in southern Germany to improve ambulatory care for patients with musculoskeletal disorders. The program offers extended consultation times, structured collaboration between general practitioners and specialists, as well as a renewed focus on guideline-recommended therapies and patient empowerment. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the program on health service utilization in patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study, which is based on claims data, evaluated health service utilization in patients with hip and knee OA from 2014 to 2017. The intervention group comprised OA patients enrolled in collaborative ambulatory orthopedic care, and the control group received usual care. The outcomes were participation in exercise interventions, prescription of physical therapy, OA-related hospitalization, and endoprosthetic surgery rates. Generalized linear regression models were used to analyze the effect of the intervention. RESULTS: Claims data for 24,170 patients were analyzed. Data for the 23,042 patients in the intervention group were compared with data for the 1,128 patients in the control group. Participation in exercise interventions (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.781; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.230-2.577; p = 0.0022), and overall prescriptions of physical therapy (Rate Ratio (RR): 1.126; 95% CI: 1.025-1.236; p = 0.0128) were significantly higher in the intervention group. The intervention group had a significantly lower risk of OA -related hospitalization (OR: 0.375; 95% CI: 0.290-0.485; p < 0.0001). Endoprosthetic surgery of the knee was performed in 53.8% of hospitalized patients in the intervention group vs. 57.5% in the control group; 27.7% of hospitalized patients underwent endoprosthetic surgery of the hip in the intervention group versus 37.0% in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with hip and knee OA, collaborative ambulatory orthopedic care is associated with a lower risk of OA-related hospitalization, higher participation in exercise interventions, and more frequently prescribed physical therapy.

Multilevel Varying Coefficient Spatiotemporal Model.

Over 785,000 individuals in the U.S. have end-stage renal disease (ESRD) with about 70% of patients on dialysis, a life-sustaining treatment. Dialysis patients experience frequent hospitalizations. In order to identify risk factors of hospitalizations, we utilize data from the large national database, United States Renal Data System (USRDS). To account for the hierarchical structure of the data, with longitudinal hospitalization rates nested in dialysis facilities and dialysis facilities nested in geographic regions across the U.S., we propose a multilevel varying coefficient spatiotemporal model (M-VCSM) where region- and facility-specific random deviations are modeled through a multilevel Karhunen-Loéve (KL) expansion. The proposed M-VCSM includes time-varying effects of multilevel risk factors at the region- (e.g., urbanicity and area deprivation index) and facility-levels (e.g., patient demographic makeup) and incorporates spatial correlations across regions via a conditional autoregressive (CAR) structure. Efficient estimation and inference is achieved through the fusion of functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Applications to the USRDS data highlight significant region- and facility-level risk factors of hospitalizations and characterize time periods and spatial locations with elevated hospitalization risk. Finite sample performance of the proposed methodology is studied through simulations.

COVID-19 Delta Wave Caused Early Overburden of Hospital Capacity in the Bulgarian Healthcare System in 2021.

We develop and apply our methodology to estimate the overburdening of hospitals in Bulgaria during the upcoming delta surge. We base our estimations on an exponential risk model from the UK. Still, the methodology is generally applicable to all risk models, depending on age. Our hypothesis is that during the delta wave in Bulgaria, the system experienced a burden from late August due to decreased capacity. This will explain most of the excess mortality during the wave. We estimate the number of people from the active cases in need of hospitalization and intensive care.

Secondary Prevention Using Cholesterol-Lowering Medications in Patients with Prior Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis.

Background: Secondary prevention with lipid-lowering medications in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is known to reduce the risk of clinical events and death. Current guidelines codify recommendations for implementing secondary prevention in appropriate patients. However, in real-world practice, secondary prevention is frequently initiated only after the patient experiences a cardiovascular-related hospitalization. The impact of these delays is not well known. Objectives: To estimate the effects of delaying treatment on the risk of cardiovascular-related hospitalization and on costs for patients who meet the criteria for secondary prevention as specified in the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Guidelines for Treatment of Blood Cholesterol to Reduce Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk in Adults. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort analysis using Humana data. Eligible patients were categorized by treatment group: (1) patients who initiated treatment before an ASCVD-related hospitalization and (2) patients who either did not initiate treatment until after an ASCVD hospitalization or never initiated treatment. The associations between the timely initiation of cholesterol-lowering medications for secondary prevention and (1) the risk for an ASCVD hospitalization and (2) health-care costs over one year, were estimated using multivariate regressions. Results: A total of 272 899 secondary prevention patients were identified who met study selection criteria. Early treatment was associated with significant reductions in the risk of an ASCVD hospitalization at any time following the identification of the patient's eligibility for secondary prevention (by 33% compared to those treated late or never, P<.0001), but was significantly associated with higher total cost over the first post-index year (by US $509, P<.001). Patients whose low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels were >130 mg/dL experienced higher ASCVD hospitalization risks, and also larger risk reductions if treated before an ASCVD hospitalization compared to patients with lower LDL-C levels who were treated late or never treated. Conclusions: More widespread implementation of the treatment policies specified in the 2013 ACC/AHA Guidelines for secondary prevention should significantly reduce cardiovascular disease hospitalizations and reduce costs.

Metabolic syndrome and risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization: a large, population-based cohort study carried out during the first European outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Metropolitan area of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy).

BACKGROUND: since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, specific characteristics of the infected subjects appeared to be associated with a severe disease, leading to hospitalization or death. OBJECTIVES: to evaluate the association between three components of the metabolic syndrome (diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, and hypertension), alone and in combination, and risk of hospitalization in subjects with nasopharyngeal swab-confirmed COVID-19. DESIGN: cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the study subjects were all COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the area of the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) between 10.02.2020 and 25.04.2020, whose data were gathered with an ad hoc information system developed at the beginning of the pandemic. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: the association between metabolic syndrome components (alone and in combination) and hospitalization (both in any ward and in intensive care unit) was measured by means of cause-specific Cox models with gender, age, and comorbidities as potential confounders. RESULTS: the cohort included 15,162 subjects followed from diagnosis up to 20.07.2020. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of hospitalization in any ward estimated by the Cox model were 1.26 for uncomplicated diabetes mellitus (95%CI 1.18-1.34); 1.21 for complicated diabetes mellitus (95%CI 1.05-1.39); 1.07 for dyslipidaemia (95%CI 1.00-1.14); and 1.11 for hypertension (95%CI 1.05-1.17). When all components coexisted in the same subject, the HR was 1.46 (95%CI 1.31-1.62). A significant increase in risk of hospitalization in intensive care unit was found for uncomplicated diabetes mellitus (HR 1.38; 95%CI 1.15-1.66). CONCLUSIONS: this population-based study confirms that metabolic syndrome components increase the risk of hospitalization for COVID-19. The HR increases in an additive manner when the three components are simultaneously present.

Risco de quedas no pós-operatório de videolaparoscopias e laparotomias / Risk of falls in the postoperative period of videolaparoscopies and laparotomies / Riesgo de caídas en el postoperatorio de video laparoscopias y laparotomías

Objetivo: Comparar o risco de quedas por meio da Morse Fall Scale (MFS) de pacientes submetidos a laparotomia e videolaparoscopia. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo transversal, descritivo e observacional, realizado entre março e julho de 2019, na clínica cirúrgica de um hospital público universitário, situado em Curitiba, Paraná, Brasil. Aplicou-se um questionário desenvolvido pelos autores no primeiro dia de pós-operatório de cirurgia abdominal e avaliou-se o risco de quedas por meio do MFS. Resultados: Participaram 102 pacientes submetidos a cirurgias abdominais, 58 videolaparoscopias, 27 laparotomias e 17 bariátricas. A média de idade apresentou-se como de 50,34 (±15,11), sendo 70 (68,63%) do sexo feminino e 32 (31,37%) do sexo masculino. A análise estatística evidenciou o alto risco de quedas nas cirurgias bariátricas, de maneira que a associação do risco com o Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC) observou que quanto maior o IMC mais alto o risco de quedas. Dessa forma, também se observou um aumento do risco de quedas na associação do IMC e a idade. Os domínios que demonstraram diferenças estatisticamente significativas entre os grupos eram o histórico de quedas, o diagnóstico secundário e a marcha/ transferência. Conclusão: O risco de quedas nos pacientes avaliados mostrou relação com o tipo de cirurgia e com fatores de risco preexistentes, além disso, aumenta-se proporcionalmente à idade do paciente e ao IMC.

Objective: To compare the risk of falls using the Morse Fall Scale (MFS) of patients undergoing laparotomy and video laparoscopy.Methods: This is a cross-sectional, descriptive, and observational study, carried out between March and July 2019, in the surgical clinic of a public university hospital in Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil. A questionnaire developed by the authors was applied on the first postoperative day of abdominal surgery, and the risk of falls was assessed using the MFS. Results: 102 patients submitted to abdominal surgeries participated, 58 videolaparoscopies, 27 laparotomies, and 17 bariatric surgeries. The mean age was 50.34 (±15.11), 70 (68.63%) were female, and 32 (31.37%) were male. The statistical analysis showed the high risk of falls in bariatric surgeries, so that the association of it with the Body Mass Index (BMI) observed that the higher the BMI, the higher the risk of falls. Thus, an increased risk of falls was also observed in the association of BMI and age. The domains that showed statistically significant differences between the groups were history of falls, secondary diagnosis, and gait/transfer. Conclusion: The risk of falls in the patients evaluated was related to the type of surgery and pre-existing risk factors. In addition, it increases proportionally to the patient's age and BMI.

Objetivo: Comparar el riesgo de caídas a través del Morse Fall Scale (MFS) de pacientes sometidos a laparotomía y vídeo laparoscopia. Métodos: Se trata de un estudio transversal, descriptivo y observacional realizado entre marzo y julio de 2019 em la clínica quirúrgica de un hospital público universitario de Curitiba, Paraná, Brasil. Se aplicó una encuesta desarrollada por los autores en el primer día del postoperatorio de cirugía abdominal y se evaluó el riesgo de caídas a través del MFS. Resultados: Han participado 102 pacientes sometidos a cirugías abdominales, 58 video laparoscopias, 27 laparotomías e 17 cirugías bariátricas. La media de edad se presentó de 50,34 (±15,11) con 70 (68,63%) personas del sexo femenino y 32 (31,37%) del sexo masculino. El análisis estadístico evidenció el elevado riesgo de caídas en las cirugías bariátricas de manera que en la asociación entre el riesgo y el Índice de Masa Corporal (IMC) se observó que al mayor IMC más alto es el riesgo de caídas. Deesa manera, también se ha percibido un aumento del riesgo de caídas en la asociación entre el IMC y la edad. Los dominios que demostraron diferencias estadísticamente significativas entre los grupos eran el histórico de caídas, el diagnóstico secundario y la marcha/transferencia. Conclusión: El riesgo de caídas de los pacientes evaluados mostró relación entre el tipo de cirugía y los factores de riesgo preexistentes, además de eso, se aumenta en proporción con la edad del paciente y el IMC.

The optimal age of vaccination against dengue in Brazil based on serotype-specific forces of infection derived from serological data.

In this paper, we study a single serotype transmission model of dengue to determine the optimal vaccination age for Dengvaxia. The transmission dynamics are modelled with an age-dependent force of infection. The force of infection for each serotype is derived from the serological profile of dengue in Brazil without serotype distinction and from serotype-specific reported cases. The risk due to an infection is measured by the probability of requiring hospitalization based on Brazilian Ministry of Health data. The optimal vaccination age is determined for any number and combination of the four distinct dengue virus serotypes DENv1-4. The lifetime expected risk is adapted to include antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) and permanent cross-immunity after two heterologous infections. The risk is assumed to be serostatus-dependent. The optimal vaccination age is computed for constant, serostatus-specific vaccine efficacies. Additionally, the vaccination age is restricted to conform to the licence of Dengvaxia in Brazil and the achievable and minimal lifetime expected risks are compared. The optimal vaccination age obtained for the risk of hospitalization varies significantly with the assumptions relating to ADE and cross-immunity. Risk-free primary infections lead to higher optimal vaccination ages, as do asymptomatic third and fourth infections. Sometimes vaccination is not recommended at all, e.g. for any endemic area with a single serotype if primary infections are risk-free. Restricting the vaccination age to Dengvaxia licensed ages mostly leads to only a slightly higher lifetime expected risk and the vaccine should be administered as close as possible to the optimal vaccination age.

Phenotypic Characteristics and Development of a Hospitalization Prediction Risk Score for Outpatients with Diabetes and COVID-19: The DIABCOVID Study.

Diabetes mellitus (DM) has been identified as a risk factor for severe COVID-19. DM is highly prevalent in the general population. Defining strategies to reduce the health care system burden and the late arrival of some patients thus seems crucial. The study aim was to compare phenotypic characteristics between in and outpatients with diabetes and infected by COVID-19, and to build an easy-to-use hospitalization prediction risk score. This was a retrospective observational study. Patients with DM and laboratory- or CT-confirmed COVID-19, who did (n = 185) and did not (n = 159) require hospitalization between 10 March and 10 April 2020, were compared. Data on diabetes duration, treatments, glycemic control, complications, anthropometrics and peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) were collected from medical records. Stepwise multivariate logistic regressions and ROC analyses were performed to build the DIAB score, a score using no more than five easy-to-collect clinical parameters predicting the risk of hospitalization. The DIAB score was then validated in two external cohorts (n = 132 and n = 2036). Hospitalized patients were older (68.0 ± 12.6 vs. 55.2 ± 12.6 years, p < 0.001), with more class III obesity (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2, 9.7 vs. 3.5%, p = 0.03), hypertension (81.6 vs. 44.3%, p < 0.0001), insulin therapy (37% vs. 23.7%, p = 0.009), and lower SpO2 (91.6 vs. 97.3%, p < 0.0001) than outpatients. Type 2 DM (T2D) was found in 94% of all patients, with 10 times more type 1 DM in the outpatient group (11.3 vs. 1.1%, p < 0.0001). A DIAB score > 27 points predicted hospitalization (sensitivity 77.7%, specificity 89.2%, AUC = 0.895), and death within 28 days. Its performance was validated in the two external cohorts. Outpatients with diabetes were found to be younger, with fewer diabetic complications and less severe obesity than inpatients. DIAB score is an easy-to-use score integrating five variables to help clinicians better manage patients with DM and avert the saturation of emergency care units.

Risk factors associated with delayed discharge following robotic assisted surgery for gynecologic malignancy.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors for extended length of stay (LOS) have not been examined in a cohort of patients with complex social and medical barriers who undergo robotic assisted (RA) surgery for gynecologic malignancies. We sought to identify those patients with a LOS > 24 h after robotic surgery and the risk factors associated with delayed discharge. Then we aimed to develop a predictive model for clinical care and identify modifiable pre-operative risk factors. METHODS: After IRB approval, data was abstracted from medical records of all patients with a gynecologic malignancy who underwent a RA laparoscopic surgery from 2010 to 2015. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors associated with delayed discharge defined as LOS > 24 h. A multi-variable logistic regression model was performed using a stepwise backward selection for the final prediction model. All testing was two-sided and a p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Of the 406 eligible and evaluable patients, 194 (48%) had a LOS > 24 h. Age ≥ 60 years, a higher usage of narcotic medication, a longer surgical time, and a larger estimated blood loss were all associated with LOS > 24 h (p < 0.05). Many of these women had a social work consultation and went home with home care services despite no surgical or post-operative complications. Our prediction model has the potential to correctly classified 75% of the patients discharged within 24 h. CONCLUSIONS: The development of a pre-hospitalization risk stratification and anticipating the possible need for home care services pre-operatively shows promise as a strategy to decrease LOS in patients classified as high-risk. These findings warrant prospective validation through the use of this prediction model in our institution.

Use of Stratified Cascade Learning to predict hospitalization risk with only socioeconomic factors.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Published models predicting health related outcomes rely on clinical, claims and social determinants of health (SDH) data. Addressing the challenge of predicting with only SDH we developed a novel framework termed Stratified Cascade Learning (SCL) and used it for predicting the risk of hospitalization (ROH). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The variable set includes 27 SDH and "age" and "sex" for a cohort of diabetic patients. The SCL model uses three sub-models: SM1 (whole training set) stratifies training set into "predictable" and "unpredictable" subsets, SM2 (built on whole training set) classifies test set patients into "predictable" and "unpredictable", and SM3 (built on only the "predictable" subset) predicts the ROH for the patients classified as "predictable" by SM2. RESULTS: The SCL model does not improve either the AUC or the NPV of the basic classifier, but materially improves accuracy and specificity measures at the expense of lowering sensitivity for the "predictable" subset. Optimization of the risk thresholds of the sub-models does not noticeably change the AUC and NPV but further improves the accuracy and specificity at the expense of further lowering sensitivity. CONCLUSION: Since the SLC model yields low sensitivity it fails to predict high risk patients. But it yields high specificity that can be useful when the objective is to eliminate low-risk patients as candidates for further testing or treatment. The use of the SCL is not limited to healthcare, it can be applied to any predictive modeling problem when reliable predictions can only be made for a fraction of incoming data.

Modeling time-varying effects of multilevel risk factors of hospitalizations in patients on dialysis.

For chronic dialysis patients, a unique population requiring continuous medical care, methodologies to monitor patient outcomes, such as hospitalizations, over time, after initiation of dialysis, are of particular interest. Contributing to patient hospitalizations is a number of multilevel covariates such as demographics and comorbidities at the patient level and staffing composition at the dialysis facility level. We propose a varying coefficient model for multilevel risk factors (VCM-MR) to study the time-varying effects of covariates on patient hospitalization risk as a function of time on dialysis. The proposed VCM-MR also includes subject-specific random effects to account for within-subject correlation and dialysis facility-specific fixed effect varying coefficient functions to allow for the modeling of flexible time-varying facility-specific risk trajectories. An approximate EM algorithm and an iterative Newton-Raphson approach are proposed to address the challenge of estimation of high-dimensional parameters (varying coefficient functions) for thousands of dialysis facilities in the United States. The proposed modeling allows for comparisons between time-varying effects of multilevel risk factors as well as testing of facility-specific fixed effects. The method is applied to model hospitalization risk using the rich hierarchical data available on dialysis patients initiating dialysis between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2008 from the United States Renal Data System, a large national database, where 331 443 hospitalizations over time are nested within patients, and 89 889 patients are nested within 2201 dialysis facilities. Patients are followed-up until December 31, 2013, where the follow-up time is truncated five years after the initiation of dialysis. Finite sample properties are studied through extensive simulations.

Risk of hospitalization associated with body mass index and weight changes among prevalent haemodialysis patients.

The impact of body mass index (BMI) and body weight on hospitalization rates in haemodialysis patients is unknown. This study hypothesizes that being either underweight or obese is associated with a higher hospitalization rate. Observational study of 6296 European haemodialysis patients with prospective data collection and follow-up every six months for three years (COSMOS study). The risk of being hospitalized was estimated by a time-dependent Cox regression model and the annual risk (incidence rate ratios, IRR) by Poisson regression. We considered weight loss, weight gain and stable weight. Weight change analyses were also performed after patient stratification according to their baseline BMI. A total of 3096 patients were hospitalized at least once with 9731 hospitalizations in total. The hospitalization incidence (fully adjusted IRR 1.28, 95% CI [1.18-1.39]) was higher among underweight patients (BMI <20kg/m2) than patients of normal weight (BMI 20-25kg/m2), while the incidence of overweight (0.88 [0.83-0.93]) and obese patients (≥30kg/m2, 0.85 [0.79-0.92]) was lower. Weight gain was associated with a reduced risk of hospitalization. Conversely, weight loss was associated with a higher hospitalization rate, particularly in underweight patients (IRR 2.85 [2.33-3.47]). Underweight haemodialysis patients were at increased risk of hospitalization, while overweight and obese patients were less likely to be hospitalized. Short-term weight loss in underweight individuals was associated with a strikingly high hospitalization rate.

The risk of hospitalization for respiratory tract infection (RTI) in children who are treated with high-dose IVIG in Kawasaki Disease: a nationwide population-based matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Kawasaki disease (KD) is an immune-mediated systemic vasculitis, and infection plays an important role in the pathophysiology of KD. The susceptibility to infectious disease in patients with KD remains largely unclear. This study aimed to investigate the risk of respiratory tract infection (RTI)-related hospitalizations in children with KD. METHODS: Data from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database was analyzed. We excluded patients with history of congenital abnormality, allergic diseases, or hospitalization history. Children with KD were selected as KD group and age- and sex-matched non-KD patients were selected as control group with 1:4 ratio. Both cohorts were tracked for one year to investigate the incidences of RTI-related hospitalizations. Cox regression hazard model was used to adjust for confounding factors and calculate the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR). RESULTS: Between January 1996 and December 2012, 4,973 patients with KD were identified as the KD group and 19,683 patients were enrolled as the control group. An obviously reduced risk of RTI-related hospitalizations was observed in KD patients (aHR: 0.75, 95% CI [0.66-0.85]). The decreased risk persisted through the first six-months follow-up period with a peak protection in 3-6 months (aHR: 0.49, 95% CI [0.37-0.64]). CONCLUSIONS: KD patients had approximately half reduction of risk for RTI-related hospitalizations. The protective effects persisted for at least six months. Further studies are warranted to elucidate the entire mechanism and investigate the influences of intravenous immunoglobulin.