RESUMO
In early 2021, members of Congress cast a series of high-profile roll call votes forcing them to choose between condoning or opposing Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Substantial majorities of House Republicans supported Trump, first by opposing the certification of electoral votes from Arizona and Pennsylvania on January 6th, then by opposing the president's impeachment for inciting the attack on the US Capitol, and then by opposing a bill that would have created a national commission to investigate the events of January 6th. We examine whether the House Republicans who voted to support Trump in 2021 were rewarded or punished in the 2022 congressional midterm elections. We find no evidence that members who supported Trump did better or worse in contested general election races. However, Trump supporters were less likely to lose primary elections, more likely to run unopposed in the general election, more likely to run for higher office, and less likely to retire from politics. Overall, there seem to have been no significant political costs and some significant rewards in 2022 for House Republicans who supported Trump's undemocratic behavior.
Assuntos
Política , Aposentadoria , Estados Unidos , Arizona , Pennsylvania , RecompensaRESUMO
On January 6, 2021, rioters stormed the US Capitol to overturn the Congressional certification of Joseph Biden as the 46th president of the United States. In previous work, the symbolic dis/empowerment framework, as a result of sociopolitical context, has influenced health outcomes in certain sub-populations. We examine whether the Capitol Riot corresponds with an increase in mental health symptoms and explore whether this relation differs by individual political party affiliation and/or state electoral college victory. We utilize the Understanding America Study, a nationally representative panel of adults, between March 10, 2020-July 11, 2021. Using fixed effects linear regression, we find a modest increase above expected levels in mental health symptoms immediately following the Capitol Riot. This result holds for Democrats overall, Democrats in Biden states, and when restricting analyses to only states that voted for Biden (or separately, for Trump). Democrats show the greatest increase of mental health symptoms following the Capital Riot, supporting the symbolic dis/empowerment framework as well as notions of political polarization and allegiance. Social and political events of national importance may adversely affect mental health of specific subpopulations.