Mesophotic zone as buffer for biodiversity protection: A promising opportunity to enhance MPA effectiveness.

Coastal areas conservation strategies often left deeper habitats, such as mesophotic ones, unprotected and exposed to anthropogenic activities. In this context, an approach for including the mesophotic zone inside protection plans is proposed, considering 27 Italian Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) as a model. MPAs were classified considering their bathymetries, exposure to marine heat waves (MHWs), mass mortality events (MMEs) and, using a local ecological knowledge (LEK) approach, the estimated resilience of certain sessile species after MMEs. Only 8 MPAs contained considerable mesophotic areas, with stronger MHWs mainly occurring in shallower MPAs, and MMEs mostly affecting coralligenous assemblages. Even with only a 10% response rate, the LEK approach provided useful information on the resilience of certain species, allowing us to suggest that the presence of nearby mesophotic areas can help shallower habitats facing climate change, thus making the "deep refugia" hypothesis, usually related to tropical habitats, applicable also for the Mediterranean Sea.

Spatial prioritization of dugong habitats in India can contribute towards achieving the 30 × 30 global biodiversity target.

Indian coastal waters are critical for dugong populations in the western Indian Ocean. Systematic spatial planning of dugong habitats can help to achieve biodiversity conservation and area-based protection targets in the region. In this study, we employed environmental niche modelling to predict suitable dugong habitats and identify influencing factors along its entire distribution range in Indian waters. We examined data on fishing pressures collected through systematic interview surveys, citizen-science data, and field surveys to demarcate dugong habitats with varying risks. Seagrass presence was the primary factor in determining dugong habitat suitability across the study sites. Other variables such as depth, bathymetric slope, and Euclidean distance from the shore were significant factors, particularly in predicting seasonal suitability. Predicted suitable habitats showed a remarkable shift from pre-monsoon in Palk Bay to post-monsoon in the Gulf of Mannar, indicating the potential of seasonal dugong movement. The entire coastline along the Palk Bay-Gulf of Mannar region was observed to be at high to moderate risk, including the Gulf of Mannar Marine National Park, a high-risk area. The Andaman Islands exhibited high suitability during pre- and post-monsoon season, whereas the Nicobar Islands were highly suitable for monsoon season. Risk assessment of modelled suitable areas revealed that < 15% of high-risk areas across Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Palk Bay and Gulf of Mannar, Tamil Nadu, fall within the existing protected areas. A few offshore reef islands are identified under high-risk zones in the Gulf of Kutch, Gujarat. We highlight the utility of citizen science and secondary data in performing large-scale spatial ecological analysis. Overall, identifying synoptic scale 'Critical Dugong Habitats' has positive implications for the country's progress towards achieving the global 30 × 30 target through systematic conservation planning.

Combining environmental DNA and visual surveys can inform conservation planning for coral reefs.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding has the potential to revolutionize conservation planning by providing spatially and taxonomically comprehensive data on biodiversity and ecosystem conditions, but its utility to inform the design of protected areas remains untested. Here, we quantify whether and how identifying conservation priority areas within coral reef ecosystems differs when biodiversity information is collected via eDNA analyses or traditional visual census records. We focus on 147 coral reefs in Indonesia's hyper-diverse Wallacea region and show large discrepancies in the allocation and spatial design of conservation priority areas when coral reef species were surveyed with underwater visual techniques (fishes, corals, and algae) or eDNA metabarcoding (eukaryotes and metazoans). Specifically, incidental protection occurred for 55% of eDNA species when targets were set for species detected by visual surveys and 71% vice versa. This finding is supported by generally low overlap in detection between visual census and eDNA methods at species level, with more overlap at higher taxonomic ranks. Incomplete taxonomic reference databases for the highly diverse Wallacea reefs, and the complementary detection of species by the two methods, underscore the current need to combine different biodiversity data sources to maximize species representation in conservation planning.

Operationalizing a fisheries social-ecological system through a Bayesian belief network reveals hotspots for its adaptive capacity in the southern North sea.

Fisheries social-ecological systems (SES) in the North Sea region confront multifaceted challenges stemming from environmental changes, offshore wind farm expansion, and marine protected area establishment. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of a Bayesian Belief Network (BN) approach in comprehensively capturing and assessing the intricate spatial dynamics within the German plaice-related fisheries SES. The BN integrates ecological, economic, and socio-cultural factors to generate high-resolution maps of profitability and adaptive capacity potential (ACP) as prospective management targets. Our analysis of future scenarios, delineating changes in spatial constraints, economics, and socio-cultural aspects, identifies factors that will exert significant influence on this fisheries SES in the near future. These include the loss of fishing grounds due to the installation of offshore wind farms and marine protected areas, as well as reduced plaice landings due to climate change. The identified ACP hotspots hold the potential to guide the development of localized management strategies and sustainable planning efforts by highlighting the consequences of management decisions. Our findings emphasize the need to consider detailed spatial dynamics of fisheries SES within marine spatial planning (MSP) and illustrate how this information may assist decision-makers and practitioners in area prioritization. We, therefore, propose adopting the concept of fisheries SES within broader integrated management approaches to foster sustainable development of inherently dynamic SES in a rapidly evolving marine environment.

Testing for concordance between predicted species richness, past prioritization, and marine protected area designations in the western Indian Ocean.

Scientific advances in environmental data coverage and machine learning algorithms have improved the ability to make large-scale predictions where data are missing. These advances allowed us to develop a spatially resolved proxy for predicting numbers of tropical nearshore marine taxa. A diverse marine environmental spatial database was used to model numbers of taxa from ∼1000 field sites, and the predictions were applied to all 7039 6.25-km2 reef cells in 9 ecoregions and 11 nations of the western Indian Ocean. Our proxy for total numbers of taxa was based on the positive correlation (r2 = 0.24) of numbers of taxa of hard corals and 5 highly diverse reef fish families. Environmental relationships indicated that the number of fish species was largely influenced by biomass, nearness to people, governance, connectivity, and productivity and that coral taxa were influenced mostly by physicochemical environmental variability. At spatial delineations of province, ecoregion, nation, and strength of spatial clustering, we compared areas of conservation priority based on our total species proxy with those identified in 3 previous priority-setting reports and with the protected area database. Our method identified 119 locations that fit 3 numbers of taxa (hard coral, fish, and their combination) and 4 spatial delineations (nation, ecoregion, province, and reef clustering) criteria. Previous publications on priority setting identified 91 priority locations of which 6 were identified by all reports. We identified 12 locations that fit our 12 criteria and corresponded with 3 previously identified locations, 65 that aligned with at least 1 past report, and 28 that were new locations. Only 34% of the 208 marine protected areas in this province overlapped with identified locations with high numbers of predicted taxa. Differences occurred because past priorities were frequently based on unquantified perceptions of remoteness and preselected priority taxa. Our environment-species proxy and modeling approach can be considered among other important criteria for making conservation decisions.

Evaluación de la concordancia entre la riqueza de especies pronosticada, priorizaciones pasadas y la designación de áreas marinas protegidas en el oeste del Océano Índico Resumen Los avances científicos en la cobertura de datos ambientales y los algoritmos de aprendizaje automatizado han mejorado la capacidad de predecir a gran escala cuando hacen falta datos. Estos avances nos permiten desarrollar un representante con resolución espacial para predecir la cantidad de taxones marinos en las costas tropicales. Usamos una base de datos espaciales de diversos ambientes marinos para modelar la cantidad de taxones a partir de ∼1000 sitios de campo y aplicamos las predicciones a las 7039 celdas arrecifales de 6.25­km2 en nueve ecorregiones y once países del oeste del Océano Índico. Nuestro representante para la cantidad total de taxones se basó en la correlación positiva (r2=0.24) de la cantidad de taxones de corales duros y cinco familias de peces arrecifales con diversidad alta. Las relaciones ambientales indicaron que el número de especies de peces estuvo influenciado principalmente por la biomasa, la cercanía a las personas, la gestión, la conectividad y la productividad y que los taxones de coral estuvieron influenciados principalmente por la variabilidad ambiental fisicoquímica. Comparamos la prioridad de las áreas de conservación a nivel de las delimitaciones espaciales de provincia, ecorregión, nación y fuerza del agrupamiento espacial basado en nuestro total de especies representantes con aquellas especies identificadas en tres reportes previos de establecimiento de prioridades y con la base de datos de áreas protegidas. Con nuestro método identificamos 119 localidades aptas para tres cantidades de taxones (corales duros, peces y su combinación) y cuatro criterios de delimitación espacial (nación, ecorregión, provincia y grupo de arrecifes). Las publicaciones previas sobre el establecimiento de prioridades identificaron 91 localidades prioritarias de las cuales seis fueron identificadas por todos los reportes. Identificamos doce localidades que se ajustan a nuestros doce criterios y se correspondieron con tres localidades identificadas previamente, 65 que se alinearon con al menos un reporte anterior y 28 que eran nuevas localidades. Sólo 34% de las 208 áreas marinas protegidas en esta provincia se traslaparon con localidades identificadas con un gran número de taxones pronosticados. Hubo diferencias porque en el pasado se priorizaba frecuentemente con base en las percepciones no cuantificadas de lo remoto y prioritario de los taxones preseleccionados. Nuestra especie representante del ambiente y nuestra estrategia de modelo pueden considerarse entre otros criterios importantes para tomar decisiones de conservación.

Incorporating climate-readiness into fisheries management strategies.

Tropical oceans are among the first places to exhibit climate change signals, affecting the habitat distribution and abundance of marine fish. These changes to stocks, and subsequent impacts on fisheries production, may have considerable implications for coastal communities dependent on fisheries for food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of climate change on tropical marine fisheries is therefore an important step towards developing sustainable, climate-ready fisheries management measures. We apply an established method of spatial meta-analysis to assess species distribution modelling datasets for key species targeted by the Philippines capture fisheries. We analysed datasets under two global emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and varying degrees of fishing pressure to quantify potential climate vulnerability of the target community. We found widespread responses to climate change in pelagic species in particular, with abundances projected to decline across much of the case study area, highlighting the challenges of maintaining food security in the face of a rapidly changing climate. We argue that sustainable fisheries management in the Philippines in the face of climate change can only be achieved through management strategies that allow for the mitigation of, and adaptation to, pressures already locked into the climate system for the near term. Our analysis may support this, providing fisheries managers with the means to identify potential climate change hotspots, bright spots and refugia, thereby supporting the development of climate-ready management plans.

Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change.

Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on  excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life-history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long-term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk-spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate.

Diversificación de los tipos de refugio necesarios para asegurar el futuro de los arrecifes de coral sujetos al cambio climático Resumen Una de las principales recomendaciones para la adaptación al cambio climático es identificar los refugios de los arrecifes de coral frente al estrés térmico del cambio climático y mejorar su gestión. Revisamos y resumimos ∼30 años de investigación aplicada centrada en la identificación de refugios climáticos para priorizar las acciones de conservación de los arrecifes de coral bajo un rápido cambio climático. Descubrimos que los refugios climáticos propuestos actualmente y las ubicaciones que pueden evitarlos dependen en gran medida de métricas de exceso de calor, como las semanas de calentamiento en grados (SCG). Sin embargo, existen muchas variables alternativas de historia vital, ambientales y ecológicas que podrían utilizarse para identificar otros tipos de refugios que resulten en el acervo diversificado que se desea para la conservación de los arrecifes de coral. Para mejorar las prioridades de conservación de los arrecifes de coral, es necesario evaluar y validar las predicciones sobre refugios climáticos con datos de campo a largo plazo sobre abundancia, diversidad y funcionamiento de los corales. También es necesario identificar y salvaguardar lugares que muestren resistencia a la exposición climática prolongada a olas de calor y la capacidad de recuperarse rápidamente tras la exposición térmica. Recomendamos utilizar más métricas para identificar un acervo de posibles lugares de refugio para los arrecifes de coral que puedan evitar, resistir y recuperarse de la exposición a las altas temperaturas oceánicas y las consecuencias del cambio climático, para así desplazar los esfuerzos pasados centrados en la evitación hacia un acervo diversificado de riesgos que pueda utilizarse para mejorar la conservación estratégica de los arrecifes de coral en un clima que se calienta rápidamente.

Advancing the initiatives of sustainable coastal and marine areas development in Pakistan through marine spatial planning.

Coastal states are currently transitioning their traditional socio-economic activities into a single platform to address the emerging issues of the coast and marine environment. For countries like Pakistan, managing multiple coastal and marine activities is a significant challenge. The lack of proper management policies and an inefficient decision-making process put various types of pressure on the ecological functions of Pakistan's coastal and marine areas. The Government of Pakistan has not yet prioritized coastal and marine affairs in its policy agenda, resulting in a halt to the process of sustainable development. Moreover, a lack of financial allocation for large-scale coastal and marine projects, a shortage of trained human resources, insufficient coordination among organizations, and unstable political decisions and governance impede the sustainable delivery of the projects. This paper discusses Pakistan's coastal and marine policy targets and highlights various issues through PESTLE analysis, which encompasses political (P), economic (E), social (S), technological (T), legal (L), and environmental (E) factors that limit the advancement of sustainable coastal and marine development. This paper aims to determine the advantages of adopting marine spatial planning (MSP) in Pakistan and how its implementation can bring social, ecological, and economic prosperity. The study provides a baseline for the country's coastal and marine policymakers regarding the advancement of a blue economy through MSP.

Modeling risks in marine protected areas: Mapping of habitats, biodiversity, and cultural ecosystem services in the southernmost atlantic coral reef.

Marine Protected Area (MPA) is a fundamental strategy for the maintenance of ocean ecological processes worldwide and, consequently, their associated ecosystem services. Nevertheless, the quality of the services provided by MPAs, including cultural services such as recreational activities, depends on the effective management of marine habitats and biodiversity. Here, we performed an ecosystemic assessment in reef environments within a subtropical MPA, modeling the potential risks for their habitats and their recreational activities. The Queimada Grande Island (QGI), southeastern Brazil, was used as the model area since this island encompasses a unique and irreplaceable marine habitat, the Southernmost Atlantic coral reef. We firstly assessed and mapped the habitats, the biodiversity, and the recreational activities associated with QGI reefs. Next, we considered different scenarios of management for the modeling risks across the study area. We found that the coral reef and its adjacent habitats, such as the rhodolith bed, make the sheltered face of the island an important area for the provision of the cultural ecosystem services and overlapping uses such as onboard recreational fishing, spearfishing, and recreational diving. This area was also evaluated as the one under the highest risk of impact, considering the current scenario of management. The most successful scenario modeling to reduce these risks was the hypothetical implementation of a 66% reduction of all activities over all QGI habitats. Despite that, the scenario simulating the application of the regulations present in the MPA management plan was enough to reduce almost half the maximum risk value. Therefore, we concluded that to provide a balance among conservation, uses, and the local economy, the application of these regulations is the better management scenario modeled for the study area. Such results provided useful information and tools for local management and decision-making in this singular marine environment, also being an example for mapping ecosystem services and modeling risks in MPAs worldwide.

Filling the data gaps: Transferring models from data-rich to data-poor deep-sea areas to support spatial management.

Spatial management of the deep sea is challenging due to limited available data on the distribution of species and habitats to support decision making. In the well-studied North Atlantic, predictive models of species distribution and habitat suitability have been used to fill data gaps and support sustainable management. In the South Atlantic and other poorly studied regions, this is not possible due to a massive lack of data. In this study, we investigated whether models constructed in data-rich areas can be used to inform data-poor regions (with otherwise similar environmental conditions). We used a novel model transfer approach to identify to what extent a habitat suitability model for Desmophyllum pertusum reef, built in a data-rich basin (North Atlantic), could be transferred usefully to a data-poor basin (South Atlantic). The transferred model was built using the Maximum Entropy algorithm and constructed with 227 presence and 3064 pseudo-absence points, and 200 m resolution environmental grids. Performance in the transferred region was validated using an independent dataset of D. pertusum presences and absences, with assessments made using both threshold-dependent and -independent metrics. We found that a model for D. pertusum reef fitted to North Atlantic data transferred reasonably well to the South Atlantic basin, with an area under the curve of 0.70. Suitable habitat for D. pertusum reef was predicted on 20 of the assessed 27 features including seamounts. Nationally managed Marine Protected Areas provide significant protection for D. pertusum reef habitat in the region, affording full protection from bottom trawling to 14 of the 20 suitable features. In areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ), we found four seamounts that provided suitable habitat for D. pertusum reef to be at least partially protected from bottom trawling, whilst two did not fall within fisheries closures. There are factors to consider when developing models for transfer including data resolution and predictor type. Nevertheless, the promising results of this application demonstrate that model transfer approaches stand to provide significant contributions to spatial planning processes through provision of new, best available data. This is particularly true for ABNJ and areas that have previously undergone little scientific exploration such as the global south.

Behavioral responses to offshore windfarms during migration of a declining shorebird species revealed by GPS-telemetry.

EU member countries and the UK are currently installing numerous offshore windfarms (OWFs) in the Baltic and North Seas to achieve decarbonization of their energy systems. OWFs may have adverse effects on birds; however, estimates of collision risks and barrier effects for migratory species are notably lacking, but are essential to inform marine spatial planning. We therefore compiled an international dataset consisting of 259 migration tracks for 143 Global Positioning System-tagged Eurasian curlews (Numenius arquata arquata) from seven European countries recorded over 6 years, to assess individual response behaviors when approaching OWFs in the North and Baltic Seas at two different spatial scales (i.e. up to 3.5 km and up to 30 km distance). Generalized additive mixed models revealed a significant small-scale increase in flight altitudes, which was strongest at 0-500 m from the OWF and which was more pronounced during autumn than during spring, due to higher proportions of time spent migrating at rotor level. Furthermore, four different small-scale integrated step selection models consistently detected horizontal avoidance responses in about 70% of approaching curlews, which was strongest at approximately 450 m from the OWFs. No distinct, large-scale avoidance effects were observed on the horizontal plane, although they could possibly have been confounded by changes in flight altitudes close to land. Overall, 28.8% of the flight tracks crossed OWFs at least once during migration. Flight altitudes within the OWFs overlapped with the rotor level to a high degree in autumn (50%) but to a significantly lesser extent in spring (18.5%). Approximately 15.8% and 5.8% of the entire curlew population were estimated to be at increased risk during autumn and spring migration, respectively. Our data clearly show strong small-scale avoidance responses, which are likely to reduce collision risk, but simultaneously highlight the substantial barrier effect of OWFs for migrating species. Although alterations in flight paths of curlews due to OWFs seem to be moderate with respect to the overall migration route, there is an urgent need to quantify the respective energetic costs, given the massive ongoing construction of OWFs in both sea areas.

Marine spatial planning to solve increasing conflicts at sea: A framework for prioritizing offshore windfarms and marine protected areas.

Direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems are expected to lower the provided ecosystem services (ES) in the near future. To limit these impacts, protected areas will be implemented as part of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Simultaneously, as an answer to climate change, renewable energies are being rapidly developed on a worldwide scale, leading to a significant increase in space use in the coming decades. Sharing space is an increasingly complex task, especially because of the high rate of emergence of such competitors for space. In fisheries-dominated socio-ecosystems, acceptability of offshore windfarms (OWFs) and marine protected areas (MPAs) is usually very low, partly due to an underrepresentation of fisheries in spatial plans and poor attention to equity in the spatial distribution of restrictive areas. Here we developed a framework with a marine spatial planning case study in the Bay of Biscay represented by the socio-ecosystem of the Grande Vasière, a mid-shelf mud belt spanning over 21,000 km2. We collected biological, environmental, and anthropogenic data to model the distribution of 62 bentho-demersal species, 7 regulating ES layers related to nutrient cycling, life cycle maintenance and food web functioning, as well as provisioning ES of 18 commercial species and 82 fisheries subdivisions. We used these spatial layers and a prioritization algorithm to explore siting scenarios of OWFs and two types of MPAs (benthic and total protection), aimed at conserving species, regulating and provisioning ES, while also ensuring that fisheries are equitably impacted. We demonstrate that equitable scenarios are not necessarily costlier and provide alternative spatial prioritizations. We emphasize the importance of exploring multiple targets with a Shiny app to visualize results and stimulate dialogue among stakeholders and policymakers. Overall, we show how our flexible, inclusive framework with particular attention to equity could be an ideal discussion tool to improve management practices.

Comparing spatial management tools to protect highly migratory shark species in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea hot spots.

Bycatch of non-target species is a pressing problem for ocean management. It is one of the most concerning issues related to human-wildlife interactions and it affects numerous species including sharks, seabirds, sea turtles, and many critically endangered marine mammals. This paper compares different policy tools for ocean closure management around a unique shark aggregation site in Israel's nearshore coastal waters. We provide a set of recommendations based on an optimal management approach that allows humans to enjoy marine recreational activities such as fishing, while maintaining safe conditions for these apex predators which are vital to the local marine ecosystem. To learn more about recreational fishers' derived benefits, we use a benefit transfer method. Our main conclusion is that dynamic time-area closures offer sustainable and effective management strategies. Since these closures are based on near real-time data, they might successfully preserve specific species in limited areas (i.e., small areas).

Mapping and assessing seagrass meadows changes and blue carbon under past, current, and future scenarios.

Seagrasses store large amounts of blue carbon and mitigate climate change, but they have suffered strong regressions worldwide in recent decades. Blue carbon assessments may support their conservation. However, existing blue carbon maps are still scarce and focused on certain seagrass species, such as the iconic genus Posidonia, and intertidal and very shallow seagrasses (<10 m depth), while deep-water and opportunistic seagrasses have remained understudied. This study filled this gap by mapping and assessing blue carbon storage and sequestration by the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa in the Canarian archipelago using the local carbon storage capacity and high spatial resolution (20 m/pixel) seagrass distribution maps for the years 2000 and 2018. Particularly, we mapped and assessed the past, current and future capacity of C. nodosa to store blue carbon, according to four plausible future scenarios, and valued the economic implications of these scenarios. Our results showed that C. nodosa has suffered ca. 50 % area loss in the last two decades, and, if the current degradation rate continues, our estimations demonstrate that it could completely disappear in 2036 ("Collapse scenario"). The impact of these losses in 2050 would reach 1.43 MT of CO2 equivalent emitted with a cost of 126.3 million € (0.32 % of the current Canary GDP). If, however, this degradation is slow down, between 0.11 and 0.57 MT of CO2 equivalent would be emitted until 2050 ("Intermediate" and "Business-as-usual" scenarios, respectively), which corresponds to a social cost of 3.63 and 44.81 million €, respectively. If the current seagrass extension is maintained ("No Net Loss"), 0.75 MT of CO2 equivalent would be sequestered from now to 2050, which corresponds to a social cost saving of 73.59 million €. The reproducibility of our methodology across coastal ecosystems underpinned by marine vegetation provides a key tool for decision-making and conservation of these habitats.

Quantifying Spatio-temporal risk of Harmful Algal Blooms and their impacts on bivalve shellfish mariculture using a data-driven modelling approach.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) intoxicate and asphyxiate marine life, causing devastating environmental and socio-economic impacts, costing at least $8bn/yr globally. Accumulation of phycotoxins from HAB phytoplankton in filter-feeding shellfish can poison human consumers, prompting harvesting closures at shellfish production sites. To quantify long-term intoxication risk from Dinophysis HAB species, we used historical HAB monitoring data (2009-2020) to develop a new modelling approach to predict Dinophysis toxin concentrations in a range of bivalve shellfish species at shellfish sites in Western Scotland, South-West England and Northern France. A spatiotemporal statistical modelling framework was developed within the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) framework to quantify long-term HAB risks for different bivalve shellfish species across each region, capturing seasonal variations, and spatiotemporal interactions. In all regions spatial functions were most important for predicting seasonal HAB risk, offering the potential to inform optimal siting of new shellfish operations and safe harvesting periods for businesses. A 10-fold cross-validation experiment was carried out for each region, to test the models' ability to predict toxin risk at harvesting locations for which data were withheld from the model. Performance was assessed by comparing ranked predicted and observed mean toxin levels at each site within each region: the correlation of ranks was 0.78 for Northern France, 0.64 for Western Scotland, and 0.34 for South-West England, indicating our approach has promise for predicting unknown HAB risk, depending on the region and suitability of training data.

The challenge of setting restoration targets for macroalgal forests under climate changes.

The process of site selection and spatial planning has received scarce attention in the scientific literature dealing with marine restoration, suggesting the need to better address how spatial planning tools could guide restoration interventions. In this study, for the first time, the consequences of adopting different restoration targets and criteria on spatial restoration prioritization have been assessed at a regional scale, including the consideration of climate changes. We applied the decision-support tool Marxan, widely used in systematic conservation planning on Mediterranean macroalgal forests. The loss of this habitat has been largely documented, with limited evidences of natural recovery. Spatial priorities were identified under six planning scenarios, considering three main restoration targets to reflect the objectives of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. Results show that the number of suitable sites for restoration is very limited at basin scale, and targets are only achieved when the recovery of 10% of regressing and extinct macroalgal forests is planned. Increasing targets translates into including unsuitable areas for restoration in Marxan solutions, amplifying the risk of ineffective interventions. Our analysis supports macroalgal forests restoration and provides guiding principles and criteria to strengthen the effectiveness of restoration actions across habitats. The constraints in finding suitable areas for restoration are discussed, and recommendations to guide planning to support future restoration interventions are also included.

Participatory process for marine spatial planning: perception of Mar del Plata's residents on offshore hydrocarbon exploration in the North Argentina Basin (Argentina).

Offshore hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation are activities developed internationally in the advance of the energy industry. Conflicts generated by incompatibility with others or with social actors, make the approach from Marine Spatial Planning necessary. In Argentina, although it is a process that has been developing since the middle of the 20th century, it was not until 2014 when the National Government promoted the activity. The North Argentine Basin (NAB) constitutes a hydrocarbon exploration area that was delimited in 2018 by Resolution 65/2018. This activity in the NAB has given rise to conflicts between intervening social actors, which was manifested in the Public Hearing (AP1/21) held in July 2021. That is why the objective of this work was to analyze the results of the AP1/21 and contrast them with the opinion of Mar del Plata's residents. For this, 682 semi-open surveys were carried out, where they were asked about the activity and the AP1/21. As a result, it was obtained that 373 people were expressed in favor (4%) and against (96%) of the project. Topics such as climate change, energy planning, and disagreement with the steps of the participatory process and the environmental impact study were presented. In the case of the surveys, opinions similar to those expressed in the audience were found, corroborating results and conclusions between both processes. In summary, the work allowed us to know not only the opinion of Mar del Plata's population but also the type of information available on the economic activity analyzed. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11852-022-00896-x.

A set of web-based public decision support tools for integrated planning and management in aquaculture.

We developed a set of web-based tools to meet the demand for spatial planning and help to determine the available space suitable for marine aquaculture activity. These tools were derived from AkvaVis concept, which was initially designed for the management of Norwegian aquaculture. The AkvaVis concept was adapted to different national aquaculture contexts and two other tools were developed in France and China. Besides using GIS maps and thematic layers, interactive functions were added to enable the user to select spatial parameters, build indicators for aquaculture siting and instantly display the requested information. For each tool, we describe the main technical features, input data, data geoprocessing, output products, tool strengths and limits, and applicability to other case studies. The three tools we present share common concepts and features:•use of standardized protocols for data (Web Feature Services, Web Map Services)•reusability of the modules developed for applications to other case studies•web-based interface for spatial data viewing and processingThey also show some differences, e.g., the Chinese tool exists as a desktop or a web-based support system. Differences and demonstrations for different aquaculture contexts in Europe and China offer some flexibility in future applications.

Projected climate change impact on a coastal sea-As significant as all current pressures combined.

Climate change influences the ocean's physical and biogeochemical conditions, causing additional pressures on marine environments and ecosystems, now and in the future. Such changes occur in environments that already today suffer under pressures from, for example, eutrophication, pollution, shipping, and more. We demonstrate how to implement climate change into regional marine spatial planning by introducing data of future temperature, salinity, and sea ice cover from regional ocean climate model projections to an existing cumulative impact model. This makes it possible to assess climate change impact in relation to pre-existing cumulative impact from current human activities. Results indicate that end-of-century projected climate change alone is a threat of the same magnitude as the combination of all current pressures to the marine environment. These findings give marine planners and policymakers forewarning on how future climate change may impact marine ecosystems, across space, emission scenarios, and in relation to other pressures.