Estimating distribution and abundance of wide-ranging species with integrated spatial models: Opportunities revealed by the first wolf assessment in south-central Italy.

Estimating demographic parameters for wide-ranging and elusive species living at low density is challenging, especially at the scale of an entire country. To produce wolf distribution and abundance estimates for the whole south-central portion of the Italian wolf population, we developed an integrated spatial model, based on the data collected during a 7-month sampling campaign in 2020-2021. Data collection comprised an extensive survey of wolf presence signs, and an intensive survey in 13 sampling areas, aimed at collecting non-invasive genetic samples (NGS). The model comprised (i) a single-season, multiple data-source, multi-event occupancy model and (ii) a spatially explicit capture-recapture model. The information about species' absence was used to inform local density estimates. We also performed a simulation-based assessment, to estimate the best conditions for optimizing sub-sampling and population modelling in the future. The integrated spatial model estimated that 74.2% of the study area in south-central Italy (95% CIs = 70.5% to 77.9%) was occupied by wolves, for a total extent of the wolf distribution of 108,534 km2 (95% CIs = 103,200 to 114,000). The estimate of total population size for the Apennine wolf population was of 2557 individuals (SD = 171.5; 95% CIs = 2127 to 2844). Simulations suggested that the integrated spatial model was associated with an average tendency to slightly underestimate population size. Also, the main contribution of the integrated approach was to increase precision in the abundance estimates, whereas it did not affect accuracy significantly. In the future, the area subject to NGS should be increased to at least 30%, while at least a similar proportion should be sampled for presence-absence data, to further improve the accuracy of population size estimates and avoid the risk of underestimation. This approach could be applied to other wide-ranging species and in other geographical areas, but specific a priori evaluations of model requirements and expected performance should be made.

120-years of ecological monitoring data shows that the risk of overhunting is increased by environmental degradation for an isolated marine mammal population: The Baltic grey seal.

The Baltic Sea is home to a genetically isolated and morphologically distinct grey seal population. This population has been the subject of 120-years of careful documentation, from detailed records of bounty statistics to annual monitoring of health and abundance. It has also been exposed to a range of well-documented stressors, including hunting, pollution and climate change. To investigate the vulnerability of marine mammal populations to multiple stressors, data series relating to the Baltic grey seal population size, hunt and health were compiled, vital demographic rates were estimated, and a detailed population model was constructed. The Baltic grey seal population fell from approximately 90,000 to as few as 3000 individuals during the 1900s as the result of hunting and pollution. Subsequently, the population has recovered to approximately 55,000 individuals. Fertility levels for mature females have increased from 9% in the 1970s to 86% at present. The recovery of the population has led to demands for increased hunting, resulting in a sudden increase in annual quotas from a few hundred to 3550 in 2020. Simultaneously, environmental changes, such as warmer winters and reduced prey availability due to overfishing, are likely impacting fecundity and health. Future population development is projected for a range of hunting and environmental stress scenarios, illustrating how hunting, in combination with environmental degradation, can lead to population collapse. The current combined hunting quotas of all Baltic Nations caused a 10% population decline within three generations in 100% of simulations. To enable continued recovery of the population, combined annual quotas of less than 1900 are needed, although this quota should be re-evaluated annually as monitoring of population size and seal health continues. Sustainable management of long-lived slowly growing species requires an understanding of the drivers of population growth and the repercussions of management decisions over many decades. The case of the Baltic grey seal illustrates how long-term ecological time series are pivotal in establishing historical baselines in population abundance and demography to inform sustainable management.

Return to 1616: Multispecies Fauna Reconstruction Requires Thinking Outside the Box.

Conservation translocations have become increasingly popular for 'rewilding' areas that have lost their native fauna. These multispecies translocations are complex and need to consider the requirements of each individual species as well as the influence of likely interactions among them. The Dirk Hartog Island National Park Ecological Restoration Project, Return to 1616, aspires to restore ecological function to Western Australia's largest island. Since 2012, pest animals have been eradicated, and conservation translocations of seven fauna species have been undertaken, with a further six planned. Here, we present a synthesis of the innovative approaches undertaken in restoring the former faunal assemblage of Dirk Hartog Island and the key learnings gathered as the project has progressed.

Plastic Entanglement Poses a Potential Hazard to European Hedgehogs Erinaceus europaeus in Great Britain.

A questionnaire to gather evidence on the plastic entanglement of the European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) was sent to 160 wildlife rehabilitation centres in Great Britain. Fifty-four responses were received, and 184 individual admissions owing to plastic entanglement were reported. Death was the outcome for 46% (n = 86) of these cases. A high proportion of Britain's hedgehogs enter rehabilitation centres annually (approximately 5% of the national population and potentially 10% of the urban population), providing a robust basis for assessing the minimum impacts at a national level. We estimate that 4000-7000 hedgehog deaths per year are attributable to plastic, with the true rate likely being higher, since many entangled hedgehogs-in contrast to those involved in road traffic accidents-will not be found. Population modelling indicates that this excess mortality is sufficient to cause population declines. Although the scale of the impact is much lower than that attributable to traffic, it is nevertheless an additional pressure on a species that is already in decline and presents a significant welfare issue to a large number of individuals.

Demographic responses of hybridizing cinquefoils to changing climate in the Colorado Rocky Mountains.

Hybridization between taxa generates new pools of genetic variation that can lead to different environmental responses and demographic trajectories over time than seen in parental lineages. The potential for hybrids to have novel environmental tolerances may be increasingly important in mountainous regions, which are rapidly warming and drying due to climate change. Demographic analysis makes it possible to quantify within- and among-species responses to variation in climate and to predict population growth rates as those conditions change. We estimated vital rates and population growth in 13 natural populations of two cinquefoil taxa (Potentilla hippiana and P. pulcherrima) and their hybrid across elevation gradients in the Southern Rockies. Using three consecutive years of environmental and demographic data, we compared the demographic responses of hybrid and parental taxa to environmental variation across space and time. All three taxa had lower predicted population growth rates under warm, dry conditions. However, the magnitude of these responses varied among taxa and populations. Hybrids had consistently lower predicted population growth rates than P. hippiana. In contrast, hybrid performance relative to P. pulcherrima varied with population and climate, with the hybrid maintaining relatively stable growth rates while populations of P. pulcherrima shrank under warm, dry conditions. Our findings demonstrate that hybrids in this system are neither intrinsically unfit nor universally more vigorous than parents, suggesting that the demographic consequences of hybridization are context-dependent. Our results also imply that shifts to warmer and drier conditions could have particularly negative repercussions for P. pulcherrima, which is currently the most abundant taxon in the study area, possibly as a legacy of more favorable historical climates. More broadly, the distributions of these long-lived taxa are lagging behind their demographic trajectories, such that the currently less common P. hippiana could become the most abundant of the Potentilla taxa as this region continues to warm and dry.

Integrative human atrial modelling unravels interactive protein kinase A and Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II signalling as key determinants of atrial arrhythmogenesis.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most prevalent clinical arrhythmia, is associated with atrial remodelling manifesting as acute and chronic alterations in expression, function, and regulation of atrial electrophysiological and Ca2+-handling processes. These AF-induced modifications crosstalk and propagate across spatial scales creating a complex pathophysiological network, which renders AF resistant to existing pharmacotherapies that predominantly target transmembrane ion channels. Developing innovative therapeutic strategies requires a systems approach to disentangle quantitatively the pro-arrhythmic contributions of individual AF-induced alterations. METHODS AND RESULTS: Here, we built a novel computational framework for simulating electrophysiology and Ca2+-handling in human atrial cardiomyocytes and tissues, and their regulation by key upstream signalling pathways [i.e. protein kinase A (PKA), and Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII)] involved in AF-pathogenesis. Populations of atrial cardiomyocyte models were constructed to determine the influence of subcellular ionic processes, signalling components, and regulatory networks on atrial arrhythmogenesis. Our results reveal a novel synergistic crosstalk between PKA and CaMKII that promotes atrial cardiomyocyte electrical instability and arrhythmogenic triggered activity. Simulations of heterogeneous tissue demonstrate that this cellular triggered activity is further amplified by CaMKII- and PKA-dependent alterations of tissue properties, further exacerbating atrial arrhythmogenesis. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis reveals potential mechanisms by which the stress-associated adaptive changes turn into maladaptive pro-arrhythmic triggers at the cellular and tissue levels and identifies potential anti-AF targets. Collectively, our integrative approach is powerful and instrumental to assemble and reconcile existing knowledge into a systems network for identifying novel anti-AF targets and innovative approaches moving beyond the traditional ion channel-based strategy.

Quantifying the impacts of predation by Great Black-backed Gulls Larus marinus on an Atlantic Puffin Fratercula arctica population: Implications for conservation management and impact assessments.

The management of predator-prey conflicts can be a key aspect of species conservation. For management approaches to be effective, a robust understanding of the predator-prey relationship is needed, particularly when both predator and prey are species of conservation concern. On the Isle of May, Firth of Forth, Scotland, numbers of breeding Great Black-backed Gulls Larus marinus, a generalist predator, have been increasing since the 1980s, which has led to increasing numbers of sympatrically breeding Atlantic Puffins Fratercula arctica being predated during the breeding season. This may have consequences for species management on the Isle of May and impact assessments of offshore windfarms in the wider Firth of Forth area. We used population viability analysis to quantify under what predation pressure the Atlantic Puffin population may decline and become locally extinct over a three-generation period. The predation level empirically estimated in 2017 (1120 Puffins per year) was not sufficient to drive a decline in the Puffin population. Rather, an increase to approximately 3000 Puffins per year would be required to cause a population decline, and >4000 to drive the population to quasi-extinction within 66 years. We discuss the likelihood of such a scenario being reached on the Isle of May, and we recommend that where predator-prey conflicts occur, predation-driven mortality should be regularly quantified to inform conservation management and population viability analyses associated with impact assessments.

SARS-CoV-2 elicits non-sterilizing immunity and evades vaccine-induced immunity: implications for future vaccination strategies.

Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.

Adaptation to distinct habitats is maintained by contrasting selection at different life stages in sunflower ecotypes.

Conspecific populations living in adjacent but contrasting microenvironments represent excellent systems for studying natural selection. These systems are valuable because gene flow is expected to force genetic homogeneity except at loci experiencing divergent selection. A history of reciprocal transplant and common garden studies in such systems, and a growing number of genomic studies, have contributed to understanding how selection operates in natural populations. While selection can vary across different fitness components and life stages, few studies have investigated how this ultimately affects allele frequencies and the maintenance of divergence between populations. Here, we study two sunflower ecotypes in distinct, adjacent habitats by combining demographic models with genome-wide sequence data to estimate fitness and allele frequency change at multiple life stages. This framework allows us to estimate that only local ecotypes are likely to experience positive population growth (λ > 1) and that the maintenance of divergent adaptation appears to be mediated via habitat- and life stage-specific selection. We identify genetic variation, significantly driven by loci in chromosomal inversions, associated with different life history strategies in neighbouring ecotypes that optimize different fitness components and may contribute to the maintenance of distinct ecotypes.

Persistent symptoms of fatigue, neuropathy and role-functioning impairment among indolent non-Hodgkin lymphoma survivors: A longitudinal PROFILES registry study.

Little is known about the long-term health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and persistence of symptoms among patients with indolent non-Hodgkin lymphoma (iNHL). This large population-based longitudinal study therefore investigated the long-term HRQoL and persistence of symptoms and identified associated sociodemographic, clinical and psychological factors. Patients diagnosed between 1999 and 2014 and four or more months after diagnosis were invited to participate in a longitudinal survey. Sociodemographic and clinical data were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. The EORTC QLQ-C30 and CLL-16 were completed by 669 patients (74% response rate). Patients completed on average four questionnaires. Primary treatment was active surveillance (52%), systemic therapy (31%) or radiotherapy (13%). Respectively, 36% reported persistent fatigue, 33% persistent neuropathy and 25% persistent role-functioning impairment. This was 2-3 times higher than in the age- and sex-matched normative population. Up to 10 years after diagnosis, scores remained relatively stable without clinically relevant changes. Comorbidities, psychological distress, shorter time since diagnosis, systemic therapy, younger age, education level and having no partner were associated with worse outcomes (all ps < 0.05). Up to a third of patients with iNHL experience long-term persistent symptoms which do not improve over time. Early recognition of symptoms will help in providing tailored supportive care for those in need.

Towards an ecological modelling approach for assessing ionizing radiation impact on wildlife populations.

The emphasis of the international system of radiological protection of the environment is to protect populations of flora and fauna. Throughout the MODARIA programmes, the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has facilitated knowledge sharing, data gathering and model development on the effect of radiation on wildlife. We present a summary of the achievements of MODARIA I and II on wildlife dose effect modelling, extending to a new sensitivity analysis and model development to incorporate other stressors. We reviewed evidence on historical doses and transgenerational effects on wildlife from radioactively contaminated areas. We also evaluated chemical population modelling approaches, discussing similarities and differences between chemical and radiological impact assessment in wildlife. We developed population modelling methodologies by sourcing life history and radiosensitivity data and evaluating the available models, leading to the formulation of an ecosystem-based mathematical approach. This resulted in an ecologically relevant conceptual population model, which we used to produce advice on the evaluation of risk criteria used in the radiological protection of the environment and a proposed modelling extension for chemicals. This work seeks to inform stakeholder dialogue on factors influencing wildlife population responses to radiation, including discussions on the ecological relevance of current environmental protection criteria. The area of assessment of radiation effects in wildlife is still developing with underlying data and models continuing to be improved. IAEA's ongoing support to facilitate the sharing of new knowledge, models and approaches to Member States is highlighted, and we give suggestions for future developments in this regard.

Pharmacodynamic modelling and exposure-response assessment of inebilizumab in subjects with neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders.

AIMS: Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD) is an autoantibody-mediated, B cell-driven disease. Inebilizumab is a humanized, affinity-optimized, afucosylated IgG1 κ monoclonal antibody that binds to the B-cell specific surface antigen CD19, resulting in rapid, profound and sustained depletion of circulating peripheral B cells in NMOSD subjects (pivotal study). The objective of this study was to conduct population modelling of B-cell response following inebilizumab treatment in adult subjects with NMOSD, and to assess the impact of drug exposure to outcome. METHODS: A haematopoietic transit model was developed to describe the joint effects of reducing influx from pro-B cells and accelerating CD20+ B-cell depletion in the blood by inebilizumab. Furthermore, the relationships between inebilizumab pharmacokinetic (PK) exposure and the primary efficacy endpoint and key secondary efficacy endpoints were evaluated. RESULTS: At the 300-mg dose, there was no apparent relationship between efficacy (reduction in disease attack risk, risk of worsening from baseline in Expanded Disability Status Scale, cumulative total active MRI lesions, and the number of NMOSD-related in-patient hospitalizations) and PK exposure. Subjects with low, medium and high PK exposure had a similar hazard ratio of NMOSD attack vs. placebo group. CONCLUSION: The pharmacodynamic modelling confirmed effective depletion of B cells is achieved with a 300 mg intravenous dose of inebilizumab administered on Day 1 and Day 15 and every 6 months thereafter. The PK variability between patients had no apparent effect on clinical efficacy.

Negative food dilution and positive biofilm carrier effects of microplastic ingestion by D. magna cause tipping points at the population level.

Ingestion of microplastics by aquatic organisms is often harmful due to the dilution of their regular food with low-calorie microplastic particles, but can also be beneficial if nutritious biofilms are present on the microplastic surface. This begs the question: is ingestion of microplastic harmful or beneficial and can the net effect of the two mechanisms be quantified? Here, we quantified these harmful and beneficial effects on Daphnia magna, using dose-response tests with clean and biofouled microplastic respectively, and determined the trade-off between these counteracting effects. A population model was developed to calculate the isoclines for zero population growth, separating the regime where adverse food dilution dominated from that where the beneficial biofilm vector mechanism dominated. Our results show that the organisms grew better when exposed to biofouled microplastic compared to pristine microplastic. Very good model predictions (R2 = 0.868-0.991) of the effects of biofouled microplastic were obtained based on literature parameter values, with optimization required only for the two sub-model parameters driving the dose-effect relationships for pristine microplastic. These results contradict previous sudies were only pristine microplastic were used and demonstrate that the ruling paradigm of unambiguously adverse microplastic effects is not ecologically justifiable.

Optimal allocation of resources to healthcare workers or the general populace: a modelling study.

We consider a model that distinguishes susceptible; infected, but not yet infectious; pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, asymptomatic, and hospitalized infectious; recovered and dead members of two groups: healthcare workers (HCW) and members of the community that they serve. Because of the frequency or duration of their exposures to SARS-CoV-2, a greater fraction of HCW would experience severe COVID-19 symptoms that require medical care, which reduces mortality rates, absent personal protective equipment (PPE). While N95 masks (and, possibly, other scarce medical resources) are available to members of both groups, they do not use them equally well (i.e. efficacy and compliance differ). We investigated the optimal allocation of potentially scarce medical resources between these groups to control the pandemic and reduce overall infections and mortality via derivation and analysis of expressions for the reproduction numbers and final size. We also simulated prevalence and cumulative incidence, quantities relevant to surge capacity and population immunity, respectively. We found that, under realistic conditions, the optimal allocation is virtually or entirely to HCW, but that allocation of surplus masks and other medical resources to members of the general community also reduces infections and deaths.

Capturing the dynamics of small populations: A retrospective assessment using long-term data for an island reintroduction.

The art of population modelling is to incorporate factors essential for capturing a population's dynamics while otherwise keeping the model as simple as possible. However, it is unclear how optimal model complexity should be assessed, and whether this optimal complexity has been affected by recent advances in modelling methodology. This issue is particularly relevant to small populations because they are subject to complex dynamics but inferences about those dynamics are often constrained by small sample sizes. We fitted Bayesian hierarchical models to long-term data on vital rates (survival and reproduction) for the toutouwai Petroica longipes population reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi, a 220-ha New Zealand island, and quantified the performance of those models in terms of their likelihood of replicating the observed population dynamics. These dynamics consisted of overall growth from 33 (±0.3) to 160 (±6) birds from 1992-2018, including recoveries following five harvest events for further reintroductions to other sites. We initially included all factors found to affect vital rates, which included inbreeding, post-release effects (PRE), density-dependence, sex, age and random annual variation, then progressively removed these factors. We also compared performance of models where data analysis and simulations were done simultaneously to those produced with the traditional two-step approach, where vital rates are estimated first then fed into a separate simulation model. Parametric uncertainty and demographic stochasticity were incorporated in all projections. The essential factors for replicating the population's dynamics were density-dependence in juvenile survival and PRE, i.e. initial depression of survival and reproduction in translocated birds. Inclusion of other factors reduced the precision of projections, and therefore the likelihood of matching observed dynamics. However, this reduction was modest when the modelling was done in an integrated framework. In contrast, projections were much less precise when done with a two-step modelling approach, and the cost of additional parameters was much higher under the two-step approach. These results suggest that minimization of complexity may be less important than accounting for covariances in parameter estimates, which is facilitated by integrating data analysis and population projections using Bayesian methods.

Why a landscape view is important: nearby urban and agricultural land affects bird abundances in protected areas.

Protected areas are one of the primary conservation tools used worldwide. However, they are often embedded in a landscape that is intensely used by people, such as for agriculture or urban development. The proximity of these land-use types to protected areas can potentially affect the ecological effectiveness (or conservation effectiveness) of protected areas. In this article, we examine to what degree adjacent agricultural and urban land uses affect the ecological effectiveness of protected areas over the greater Gauteng region of South Africa. We selected 198 common, resident bird species, and analysed detection/non-detection data for these species collected over regular grid cells (approximately 61 km2 in area). For each species, we estimated abundance per grid cell with the Royle-Nichols model in relation to the proportion of protected area as a covariate. Our study focused on how this relationship between proportion of protected area and abundance (which we term the 'protection-abundance relationship') changed as a function of other land-use types in the grid cell. Specifically, we examined the interaction effects between protected area and both urban and agricultural land-use type per grid cell on bird abundance. We assigned each species to one of seven guilds, namely: frugivores, gleaners, granivores, ground-feeders, hawkers, predators and vegivores, and examined how the protection-abundance relationship varied across guilds in relation to agriculture and urban area. As urban area within a grid cell increased, the protection-abundance relationship became more positive for 58% of all species. At the level of guilds, the protection-abundance relationship became more positive for two guilds (granivores and ground-feeders), more negative for frugivores, and remained unchanged for the other four guilds (gleaners, hawkers, predators and vegivores). As agricultural area within a grid cell increased, the protection-abundance relationship became more positive for 49% of all species. At the guild level, the protection-abundance relationship became more positive for six guilds (frugivores, gleaners, ground-feeders, hawkers, predators and vegivores) and remained unchanged for the granivores. Our results show land-use type near protected areas modified the effect protected areas had on bird abundances, and hence the ecological effectiveness of protected areas. Our results suggest that protected areas should be viewed as constituents within the landscape, rather than islands of protection.

Range dynamics mediated by compensatory life stage responses to experimental climate manipulations.

The expectations of polar or upslope distributional shifts of species ranges in response to warming climate conditions have been recently questioned. Diverse responses of different life stages to changing temperature and moisture regimes may alter these predicted range dynamics. Furthermore, the climate driver(s) influencing demographic rates, and the contribution of each demographic rate to population growth rate (λ), may shift across a species range. We investigated these demographic effects by experimentally manipulating climate and measuring responses of λ in nine populations spanning the elevation range of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides). Populations exhibited stable growth rates (λ ~ 1) under naturally wet conditions and declining rates (λ < 1) under naturally dry conditions. However, opposing vital rate responses to experimental heating and watering lead to negligible or negative effects on population stability. These findings indicate that life stage-specific responses to changing climate can disrupt the current relationships between population stability and climate across species ranges.

Plasma and cerebrospinal fluid pharmacokinetics of ondansetron in humans.

AIMS: Changes in serotonergic sensory modulation associated with overexpression of 5-HT3 receptors in the central nervous system (CNS) have been implicated in the pathophysiology of neuropathic pain after peripheral nerve damage. 5-HT3 receptor antagonists such as ondansetron can potentially alleviate neuropathic pain, but have limited effectiveness, due potentially to limited CNS access. However, there is currently limited information on CNS disposition of systemically-administered 5-HT3 receptor antagonists. This study evaluated the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) disposition of ondansetron, as a surrogate of CNS penetration. METHODS: Fifteen patients were given a single 16 mg intravenous 15 minute infusion of ondansetron, followed by serial blood and a single CSF sampling. Population pharmacokinetic (PK) modelling was implemented to describe the average and individual plasma and CSF profiles of ondansetron. A two-compartmental model was used to capture ondansetron plasma PK with a single CSF compartment to describe distribution to the CNS. RESULTS: The individual model-estimated CSF to plasma partition coefficients of ondansetron were between 0.09 and 0.20. These values were mirrored in the calculated CSF penetration ratios, ranging from 0.08 to 0.26. CONCLUSIONS: After intravenous administration, CSF concentrations of ondansetron were approximately 7-fold lower than those observed in the plasma. A model could be developed to describe individual CSF concentration-time profiles of ondansetron based on a single CSF data point. The low CSF penetration of ondansetron may explain its limited analgesic effectiveness, and affords an opportunity to explore enhancing its CNS penetration for targeting conditions such as neuropathic pain.

COTSMod: A spatially explicit metacommunity model of outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and coral recovery.

Outbreaks of the Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) have been responsible for 40% of the decline in coral cover on the GBR over the last 35 years. With the intensity and frequency of bleaching and cyclonic disturbances increasing, effectively managing these outbreaks may allow reefs an opportunity to recover from these cumulative impacts. Significant research effort has been directed toward developing regional scale models for COTS outbreaks, but these have yet to be fit explicitly to long term time series at the scale of the entire GBR, nor do previous research efforts incorporate explicit estimates of cumulative disturbance history. We developed a stage-based metapopulation model for COTS at a 1×1km resolution using long-term time series and modelled estimates of COTS larval connectivity, nutrient concentrations and important vital rates estimated from the literature. We coupled this metapopulation model to an existing spatially explicit model of coral cover growth, disturbance and recovery across the GBR from 1996 to 2017 to create a metacommunity model. Our results were validated against a spatially and temporally extensive dataset of COTS and coral cover across the GBR, predicting an average coral decline of 1.3% p.a. across the GBR, and accurately recreating coral cover trajectories (mean prediction error=7.1%) and COTS outbreak classification (accuracy=80%). Sensitivity analyses revealed that overall model accuracy was most sensitive to larval predation (boosted regression tree; relative importance=46.7%) and two parameters defining juvenile density dependent mortality (21.5% and 17.5%). The COTS model underestimated peak COTS densities particularly in the Swains and Townsville sectors of the reef, while overestimating COTS density during non-outbreak years. A better understanding of inter-annual variability in larval connectivity, and regionally variable density dependence for adult COTS life stages may improve model fit during these extreme outbreak events. Our model provides a platform to develop upon, and with improvements to estimates of larval connectivity and larval predation could be used to simulate the effects of implementing varying combinations of COTS interventions. This research highlights the importance of the early life history stages of COTS as drivers of outbreak dynamics, emphasizing the need for further empirical research to estimate these parameters.

Vulnerability of northern gannets to offshore wind farms; seasonal and sex-specific collision risk and demographic consequences.

There is a pressing need to quantify the risks of renewable energy developments such as offshore wind farms for protected populations. However, assessments are often based on incomplete data, or fail to consider variation in risk between sexes and at different times of year. We tracked northern gannets foraging from the world's largest colony (Bass Rock, Scotland) across five consecutive breeding seasons. We examine how seasonal and sex differences in behaviour affect the collision risk from planned and operational wind farms within their foraging range and assess the likely consequences for long-term population viability. Both sexes made shorter trips during chick-rearing than prior to chick-hatching, spent a greater proportion of time within wind farm sites and had an eight times greater potential collision risk during chick-rearing. Females made longer trips than males at both these times of year, flew higher and spent more time within wind farm sites, leading to three times greater collision risk for females. After accounting for the potential additional mortality from collisions, and assuming that the death of a parent also led to the loss of its offspring, the breeding population was projected to increase by 3.57% (95% CI: 2.16-5.15%) per year, compared with 6.56% (95% CI: 4.59-8.73%) in the absence of turbines, suggesting a negligible effect on population viability. However, additional mortality could result in greater immigration from neighbouring colonies, potentially affecting their viability and highlighting a need for research within a metapopulation framework to assess the impacts of offshore wind developments on vulnerable species across multiple connected sites.