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1.
Med Clin (Barc) ; 2024 Jul 01.
Artigo em Inglês, Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38955604

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is little evidence on the impact of current recommendations on the use of antiplatelet therapy during the perioperative and periprocedural period in our setting. The aim of this study was to analyze the incidence and clinical impact of inappropriate use of antiplatelet therapy in a population of patients undergoing surgery or a diagnostic or therapeutic procedure in "real life" in Spain. METHODS: A prospective multicenter observational study of patients treated with antiplatelet agents requiring intervention was conducted. The incidence of thrombotic and hemorrhagic events at 30 days was analyzed according to peri-intervention management of antiplatelet therapy. RESULTS: We included 643 patients (31.9% women, 39.0% over 75 years of age), most of them (87.7%) receiving aspirin as antiplatelet therapy at a dose of 100mg/day. Indications for antiplatelet therapy were ischemic heart disease (44.9%), cerebrovascular disease (21.7%), and peripheral vascular disease (23.0%). Ischemic risk was low in 74.3%, while 51.6% had a low bleeding risk of the intervention. Periprocedural management was considered appropriate in 61.7% of cases. 30-day incidence of the combined primary endpoint of thrombotic events and major bleeding (12.1% versus 5.0%; p=0.002) and 30-day mortality (5.2% versus 1.5%; p=0.008) were significantly higher in patients with inappropriate periprocedural management of antiplatelet agents. CONCLUSIONS: Despite current recommendations for the use of antiplatelet drugs in the perioperative/periprocedural period, their implementation in the "real world" remains low. Inappropriate use is associated with an increased incidence of adverse events, both thrombotic and hemorrhagic.

2.
Arch. cardiol. Méx ; 94(2): 181-190, Apr.-Jun. 2024. tab, graf
Artigo em Espanhol | LILACS-Express | LILACS | ID: biblio-1556915

RESUMO

Resumen Una de las complicaciones durante un evento de síndrome coronario agudo es la presencia de arritmias. Dentro de ellas, las de tipo supraventricular, en especial fibrilación auricular, acarrea un mal pronóstico tanto a corto como a largo plazo y es la causa de situaciones como evento vascular cerebral, arritmias ventriculares y aumento de la mortalidad. Dicha arritmia tiende a aparecer en cierto grupo de población con particulares factores de riesgo durante el evento índice en aproximadamente 10% de los casos. Un tratamiento apropiado en el momento de su aparición, gracias al uso de fármacos que modulan la frecuencia cardiaca, el ritmo y el manejo anticoagulante en los grupos más vulnerables conllevará un desenlace menos sombrío para estos pacientes.


Abstract One of the complications during an acute coronary syndrome event is the presence of arrhythmias. Among them, those of the supraventricular type, especially atrial fibrillation, carry a poor prognosis both in the short and long term, being the cause of situations such as cerebrovascular event, ventricular arrhythmias, and increased mortality. The arrhythmia tends to appear in a certain population group with particular risk factors during the index event in approximately 10% of cases. Appropriate treatment at the time of its onset, thanks to the use of drugs that modulate heart rate, rhythm, and anticoagulant management in the most vulnerable groups, will lead to a less bleak outcome for these patients.

3.
Respirar (Ciudad Autón. B. Aires) ; 16(2): 137-150, Junio 2024.
Artigo em Espanhol | LILACS, UNISALUD, BINACIS | ID: biblio-1556149

RESUMO

Introducción: SARS-CoV-2 ha causado millones de muertes a nivel global desde su primer caso reportado en China. En Guatemala existen pocos estudios que describan los factores pronósticos. Nuestro objetivo fue determinar los factores asociados de mortalidad a 30 días en pacientes con neumonía (Nm) por SARS-CoV-2 y construir un modelo predictor. Material y Métodos: Estudio retrospectivo en 144 sujetos en el Hospital Roosevelt de marzo a diciembre 2020 con criterios de Nm por SARS-CoV-2. Se revisó el expediente médico para datos clínicos y de laboratorio desde ingreso hasta alta hospitalaria o muerte. Resultados: Se evaluaron 105 hombres y 39 mujeres con media de edad 53 años. El 47% tenía comorbilidades como diabetes mellitus 2 e hipertensión arterial sistémica. Promedio de días de hospitalización: 13. Cuadros leves a moderados de Síndrome de Distrés Respiratorio Agudo (SDRA): 92%. Se indicó ventilación mecánica invasiva (VMI) a 46 pacientes. La mortalidad general fue 35%. Factores asociados a mortalidad a 30 días: edad ≥50 años, inicio de síntomas ≥7 días, SDRA severo, radio NL >4,4, recibir VMI, alteración en LDH y procalcitonina. Nuestro modelo mostró que los mejores predictores de mortalidad eran alteración en procalcitonina (OR: 4,45), recibir VMI (OR: 112) y días de estancia hospitalaria (OR: 1,12) con precisión de 91,5% y área bajo la curva de 94,4%. Conclusiones: Los factores pronósticos de mortalidad en pacientes guatemaltecos con Nm por SARS-CoV-2 son múltiples e incluyen rasgos demográficos, clínicos y serológicos; identificarlos y contar con un modelo pronóstico ayudará a brindar atención médica de precisión.


Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 has caused millions of deaths globally since its first case was reported in China. In Guatemala, few studies describe prognostic factors. Our objective was to determine the factors associated with 30 day mortality in patients with Pneumonia (Nm) due to SARS-CoV-2 and to build a predictor model. Material and Methods: Retrospective study in 144 subjects at Roosevelt Hospital from March to December 2020 with Nm criteria for SARS-CoV-2. The medical record was rviewed, obtaining clinical and laboratory data from admission to hospital discharge or death. Results: 105 men and 39 women with an average age of 53 years were evaluated. 47% had comorbidities, with type 2 diabetes mellitus and systemic arterial hypertension being common. The average number of days of hospitalization was 13. 92% had mild to moderate acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Invasive mechanical ventila-tion (IMV) was indicated for 46 patients. Overall mortality was 35%. The factors asso-ciated with 30-day mortality were age ≥50 years, the onset of symptoms ≥7 days, severe ARDS, N/L ratio >4.4, receiving IMV, alterations in LDH, and procalcitonin. Our model showed that the best predictors of mortality were altered procalcitonin (OR: 4.45), receiving IMV (OR: 112), and days of hospital stay (OR: 1.12) with precision of 91.5% and area under the curve of 94.4%. Conclusions: The prognostic factors of mortality in Guatemalan patients with Nm due to SARS-CoV-2 are multiple and include demographic, clinical and serological features; identifying them and having a prognostic model will help provide precision medical care.


Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Pneumonia/mortalidade , Prognóstico , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Oxigenoterapia , Respiração Artificial , Síndrome do Desconforto Respiratório do Recém-Nascido/mortalidade , Comorbidade , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase , Ultrassonografia , Fatores Etários , Guatemala/epidemiologia
4.
Artigo em Inglês, Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38871231

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: The development of specific heart failure (HF) units has improved the management of patients with this disease due to improved organization and resource management. The Spanish Society of Cardiology (SEC) has defined 3 types of HF units (community, specialized, and advanced) based on their complexity and service portfolio. Our aim was to compare the characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of patients with HF according to the type of unit. METHODS: We analyzed data from the SEC-Excelente-IC quality accreditation program registry, with 1716 patients consecutively included in two 1-month cutoffs (March and October) from 2019 to 2021 by 45 SEC-accredited HF units. We compared the characteristics, treatment and 1-year outcomes between the 3 types of units. RESULTS: Of the 1716 patients, 13.2% were treated in community units, 65.9% in specialized units, and 20.9% in advanced units. The rates of mortality (27.5 vs 15.5/100 patients-year; P<.001), admissions for HF (39.7 vs 29.2/100 patients-year; P=.019), total decompensations (56.1 vs 40.5/100 patients-year; P=.003), and combined death/admission for HF (45.2 vs 31.4/100 patients-year; P=.005) were higher in community units than in specialized/advanced units. Follow-up in a community unit was an independent predictor of higher mortality and admissions at 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with follow-up by more specialized units, follow-up in a community unit was associated with a higher decompensation rate and increased 1-year mortality.

5.
Nutr Hosp ; 41(3): 602-611, 2024 Jun 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38726634

RESUMO

Introduction: Introduction: the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) have been found to correlate with outcomes following radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer (GC). Objectives: to construct a nomogram combining PNI and PLR for individually forecasting the risk of postoperative pulmonary infection (POI) following D2 radical gastrectomy for GC. Methods: retrospectively, clinical data was gathered from 404 patients treated with D2 radical gastrectomy for GC. The study used multivariate logistic regression analysis to screen independent risk factors for POI after surgery. Subsequently, a nomogram was developed based on the above factors to forecast the POI probability accurately. Results: the multivariate logistic regression analysis identified age, PNI, PLR, CA199 level, ASA score, and ICU treatment as independent risk variables for POI following D2 radical gastrectomy (p < 0.001 or 0.05). The nomogram's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting the risk of POI was 0.736 (95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.678-0.794). The nomogram was internally validated using the bootstrap approach, involving repeated sampling 1000 times. The result yielded a concordance index (c-index) of 0.707 (95 % CI = 0.705-0.709). The calibration curves demonstrated an excellent concordance between the predicted values of the nomogram and the observed values. The nomogram's clinical value was shown to be high using decision analysis curves. Conclusions: a nomogram combining PNI and PLR is a dependable tool for forecasting the probability of POI following D2 radical gastrectomy for GC.


Introducción: Introducción: se ha observado que el índice nutricional pronóstico (INP) y el cociente plaquetas/linfocitos (PLR) se correlacionan con los resultados tras la gastrectomía radical por cáncer gástrico (CG). Objetivos: diseñar un nomograma que combine el INP y la RPL para predecir individualmente el riesgo de infección pulmonar postoperatoria (POI) tras una gastrectomía radical D2 por CG. Métodos: de forma retrospectiva, se recopilaron datos clínicos de 404 pacientes tratados con gastrectomía radical D2 por CG. El estudio utilizó un análisis de regresión logística multivariante para detectar factores de riesgo independientes de IOP tras la cirugía. Posteriormente, se desarrolló un nomograma basado en los factores mencionados para pronosticar con precisión la probabilidad de POI. Resultados: el análisis de regresión logística multivariante identificó la edad, el INP, el PLR, el nivel de CA199, la puntuación ASA y el tratamiento en la UCI como variables de riesgo independientes para el POI tras la gastrectomía radical D2 (p < 0,001 o 0,05). El área bajo la curva ROC (característica operativa del receptor) AUC del nomograma para predecir el riesgo de POI fue de 0,736 (intervalo de confianza [IC] del 95 % = 0,678-0,794). El nomograma se validó internamente mediante el método bootstrap, que consiste en repetir el muestreo 1000 veces. El resultado fue un índice de concordancia (índice c) de 0,707 (IC del 95 % = 0,705-0,709). Las curvas de calibración demostraron una excelente concordancia entre los valores predichos del nomograma y los valores observados. El valor clínico del nomograma se demostró elevado mediante curvas de análisis de decisión. Conclusiones: un nomograma que combina INP y PLR es una herramienta fiable para predecir la probabilidad de POI tras gastrectomía radical D2 por CG.


Assuntos
Gastrectomia , Nomogramas , Avaliação Nutricional , Complicações Pós-Operatórias , Neoplasias Gástricas , Humanos , Neoplasias Gástricas/cirurgia , Gastrectomia/efeitos adversos , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/etiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/sangue , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/diagnóstico , Prognóstico , Idoso , Contagem de Plaquetas , Contagem de Linfócitos , Plaquetas , Linfócitos , Adulto , Fatores de Risco
6.
Cir Cir ; 92(2): 159-164, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38782386

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to compare the intestinal and pancreatobiliary subtypes of ampullary adenocarcinoma in a large patient group due to limited data on survival and risk factors. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the clinical and pathological findings and the survival of 184 patients with ampullary adenocarcinoma who underwent curative operation between 2007 and 2018 was performed. RESULTS: Pancreatobiliary subtype had a higher prevalence of jaundice before operation than the intestinal subtype (p < 0.05). Pancreatobiliary subtype had a larger tumor size (> 2 mm) (p < 0.01) and poorer differentiation (p < 0.05) than the intestinal subtype. Perineural invasion more frequently occurred in pancreatobiliary subtype than the intestinal subtype (p < 0.01) and pancreatobiliary subtype had a higher prevalence of positive dissected lymph nodes (p < 0.05) with an advanced disease stage (p < 0.01) than the intestinal subtype. Patients of the pancreatobiliary subtype had poorer disease-free and overall survival than patients of the intestinal subtype. No survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy was found in either patients of the intestinal subtype or pancreatobiliary subtype. No significant difference was found in any subtypes regarding the recurrent regions. CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatobiliary subtype exhibited a higher recurrence rate and a poorer overall survival rate with more unfavorable pathological characteristics than the intestinal subtype.


OBJETIVOS: Los datos sobre la supervivencia y los factores de riesgo del adenocarcinoma ampular son limitados debido a su rareza. Este estudio buscó comparar el subtipo intestinal y el subtipo pancreático-biliar en pacientes con adenocarcinoma ampular. MÉTODOS: Análisis retrospectivo de hallazgos clínicos y patológicos y la supervivencia de 184 pacientes con adenocarcinoma ampular tratados entre 2007 y 2018. RESULTADOS: El subtipo pancreático-biliar tuvo una mayor prevalencia de ictericia antes de la operación y un tamaño de tumor mayor, y una peor diferenciación, que el subtipo intestinal. La invasión perineural fue más frecuente en el subtipo pancreático-biliar, con una mayor prevalencia de linfonodos disecados positivos y un estadio avanzado de la enfermedad. Los pacientes del subtipo pancreático-biliar tuvieron una supervivencia libre de enfermedad y una supervivencia general peores que los pacientes del subtipo intestinal. No se encontró ningún beneficio de la quimioterapia adyuvante en pacientes del subtipo intestinal o pancreático-biliar. No hubo diferencia significativa en las regiones recurrentes. CONCLUSIÓN: El subtipo pancreático-biliar mostró una tasa de recurrencia y una tasa de supervivencia general peores, con características patológicas más desfavorables que el subtipo intestinal.


Assuntos
Adenocarcinoma , Ampola Hepatopancreática , Neoplasias do Ducto Colédoco , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Ampola Hepatopancreática/patologia , Masculino , Feminino , Adenocarcinoma/patologia , Adenocarcinoma/cirurgia , Adenocarcinoma/mortalidade , Adenocarcinoma/classificação , Neoplasias do Ducto Colédoco/patologia , Neoplasias do Ducto Colédoco/cirurgia , Neoplasias do Ducto Colédoco/mortalidade , Neoplasias do Ducto Colédoco/classificação , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Quimioterapia Adjuvante , Adulto , Invasividade Neoplásica , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia , Metástase Linfática , Carga Tumoral , Intervalo Livre de Doença
7.
Gac Med Mex ; 160(1): 62-67, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38753542

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The quick Sequential Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) is a score that has been proposed to quickly identify patients at higher risk of death. OBJECTIVE: To describe the usefulness of the qSOFA score to predict in-hospital mortality in cancer patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Cross-sectional study carried out between January 2021 and December 2022. Hospital mortality was the dependent variable. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated to determine the discriminative ability of qSOFA to predict in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 587 cancer patients were included. A qSOFA score higher than 1 obtained a sensitivity of 57.2%, specificity of 78.5%, a positive predictive value of 55.4% and negative predictive value of 79.7%. The AUC of qSOFA for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.70. In-hospital mortality of patients with qSOFA scores of 2 and 3 points was 52.7 and 64.4%, respectively. In-hospital mortality was 31.9% (187/587). CONCLUSION: qSOFA showed acceptable discriminative ability for predicting in-hospital mortality in cancer patients.


ANTECEDENTES: El quick Sequential Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) es una puntuación propuesta para identificar de forma rápida a pacientes con mayor probabilidad de morir. OBJETIVO: Describir la utilidad de la puntuación qSOFA para predecir mortalidad hospitalaria en pacientes con cáncer. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estudio transversal realizado entre enero de 2021 y diciembre de 2022. La mortalidad hospitalaria fue la variable dependiente. Se calculó el área bajo la curva ROC (ABC) para determinar la capacidad discriminativa de qSOFA para predecir mortalidad hospitalaria. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 587 pacientes con cáncer. La puntuación qSOFA < 1 obtuvo una sensibilidad de 57.2 %, una especificidad de 78.5 %, un valor predictivo positivo de 55.4 % y un valor predictivo negativo de 79.7 %. El ABC de qSOFA para predecir mortalidad hospitalaria fue de 0.70. La mortalidad hospitalaria de los pacientes con qSOFA de 2 y 3 puntos fue de 52.7 y 64.4 %, respectivamente. La mortalidad hospitalaria fue de 31.9 % (187/587). CONCLUSIÓN: qSOFA mostró capacidad discriminativa aceptable para predecir mortalidad hospitalaria en pacientes con cáncer.


Assuntos
Mortalidade Hospitalar , Neoplasias , Escores de Disfunção Orgânica , Humanos , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Estudos Transversais , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Curva ROC , Sepse/mortalidade , Sepse/diagnóstico , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Área Sob a Curva , Adulto , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais
8.
Int. j. morphol ; 42(2)abr. 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | LILACS-Express | LILACS | ID: biblio-1558155

RESUMO

SUMMARY: The calcium-activated chloride channel (CLCA2) performs a vital function in the intricate process of tumorigenesis. Using a bioinformatics analysis system, we conducted a pan-cancer investigation on CLCA2 to explore its association with tumor prognosis and its involvement in immunology. In order to achieve this objective, we examined the prognostic significance and expression level of CLCA2 in multiple cancer types using the TIMER and Sangerbox databases. The analysis of protein interaction networks revealed proteins linked to CLCA2. To investigate the potential biological functions and enrichment pathways of CLCA2 in cancer, the SangerBox and GSCA databases were utilized. Furthermore, the expression of CLCA2 in different cancer subtypes was evaluated during the analysis. Various functional conditions of cancer cells were then compared with CLCA2 in the CancerSEA database. Using online tools like TISIDB and Assistant for Clinical Bioinformatics, the investigation explored the link between CLCA2 and immune subtypes. Additionally, it assessed immune cell infiltration as part of the analysis. In addition, the application of GDSA was employed to investigate the predictive significance of CLCA2 in relation to drug sensitivity. The research outcomes uncovered abnormal expression patterns of CLCA2 in diverse tumor categories, with its expression level demonstrating a correlation with distinct subtypes of tumors. Strong associations have been observed between enhanced patient survival rates and CLCA2 in specific tumor types. There is a noteworthy connection observed among diverse tumor types, immune cell infiltration, immune subtypes, and CLCA2. The enrichment analysis of KEGG indicates that there may exist a connection between the expression of CLCA2 and renin secretion, pancreatic secretion, as well as other pathways in pan-cancer. CLCA2 appears to primarily activate pathways such as EMT (epithelial-mesenchymal transition), RAS/MAPK, RTK, apoptosis, TSC/mTOR, and PI3K/ AKT in pan-cancer. On the other hand, it seems to inhibit pathways like cell cycle, DNA damage, hormone AR, and hormone ER. Through single-cell functional analysis, it has been confirmed that CLCA2 is associated with diverse cellular functional states, encompassing DNA repair, EMT, hypoxia, invasion, metastasis, and quiescence. Furthermore, a substantial correlation has been observed between the expression of CLCA2 and drug sensitivity towards bosutinib, tipifarnib-P1, as well as other therapeutic agents. This research affirms that various cancer types express CLCA2 and its involvement in tumor advancement and immune penetration. CLCA2 possesses the capability to function as a noteworthy biomarker and target for therapeutic intervention in diverse cancer forms.


El canal de cloruro activado por calcio (CLCA2) desempeña una función vital en el proceso de tumorigénesis. Utilizando un sistema de análisis bioinformático, llevamos a cabo una investigación pan-cáncer en CLCA2 para explorar su asociación con el pronóstico tumoral y su participación en la inmunología. Para lograr este objetivo, examinamos la importancia pronóstica y el nivel de expresión de CLCA2 en múltiples tipos de cáncer utilizando las bases de datos TIMER y Sangerbox. El análisis de las redes de interacción de proteínas reveló proteínas vinculadas a CLCA2. Para investigar las posibles funciones biológicas y las vías de enriquecimiento de CLCA2 en el cáncer, se utilizaron las bases de datos SangerBox y GSCA. Además, durante el análisis se evaluó la expresión de CLCA2 en diferentes subtipos de cáncer. Luego se compararon varias condiciones funcionales de las células cancerosas con CLCA2 en la base de datos CancerSEA. Utilizando herramientas en línea como TISIDB y Assistant for Clinical Bioinformatics, la investigación exploró el vínculo entre CLCA2 y los subtipos inmunes. Además, evaluó la infiltración de células inmunitarias como parte del análisis y se empleó la aplicación de GDSA para investigar la importancia predictiva de CLCA2 en relación con la sensibilidad al fármaco. Los resultados de la investigación descubrieron patrones de expresión anormales de CLCA2 en diversas categorías de tumores, y su nivel de expresión demuestra una correlación con distintos subtipos de tumores. Se han observado fuertes asociaciones entre mayores tasas de supervivencia de los pacientes y CLCA2 en tipos de tumores específicos. Se observa una conexión notable entre diversos tipos de tumores, infiltración de células inmunitarias, subtipos inmunitarios y CLCA2. El análisis de enriquecimiento de KEGG indica que puede existir una conexión entre la expresión de CLCA2 y la secreción de renina, la secreción pancreática y otras vías en el pancáncer. CLCA2 parece activar principalmente vías como EMT (transición epitelial-mesenquimatosa), RAS/MAPK, RTK, apoptosis, TSC/mTOR y PI3K/AKT en pan-cáncer. Por otro lado, parece inhibir vías como el ciclo celular, el daño del ADN, la hormona AR y la hormona ER. Mediante análisis funcional unicelular, se ha confirmado que CLCA2 está asociado con diversos estados funcionales celulares, que abarcan la reparación del ADN, la EMT, la hipoxia, la invasión, la metástasis y la inactividad. Además, se ha observado una correlación sustancial entre la expresión de CLCA2 y la sensibilidad al fármaco hacia bosutinib, tipifarnib-P1, así como a otros agentes terapéuticos. Esta investigación indica que varios tipos de cáncer expresan CLCA2 y su participación en el avance tumoral y la penetración inmune. CLCA2 posee la capacidad de funcionar como un biomarcador notable y como un objetivo para la intervención terapéutica en diversas formas de cáncer.

9.
Emergencias ; 36(2): 88-96, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Espanhol, Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38607301

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a risk model for 1-year mortality based on variables available from early prehospital emergency attendance of patients with infection. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective, observational, noninterventional multicenter study in adults with suspected infection transferred to 4 Spanish hospitals by advanced life-support ambulances from June 1, 2020, through June 30, 2022. We collected demographic, physiological, clinical, and analytical data. Cox regression analysis was used to develop and validate a risk model for 1-year mortality. RESULTS: Four hundred ten patients were enrolled (development cohort, 287; validation cohort, 123). Cumulative mortality was 49% overall. Sepsis (infection plus a Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment score of 2 or higher) was diagnosed in 29.2% of survivors vs 56.7% of nonsurvivors. The risk model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89 for 1-year mortality. The following predictors were included in the model: age; institutionalization; age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index; PaCO2; potassium, lactate, urea nitrogen, and creatinine levels; fraction of inspired oxygen; and diagnosed sepsis. CONCLUSION: The model showed excellent ability to predict 1-year mortality based on epidemiological, analytical, and clinical variables, identifying patients at high risk of death soon after their first contact with the health care system.


OBJETIVO: Diseñar y validar un modelo de riesgo con variables determinadas a nivel prehospitalario para predecir el riesgo de mortalidad a largo plazo (1 año) en pacientes con infección. METODO: Estudio multicéntrico, observacional prospectivo, sin intervención, en pacientes adultos con sospecha infección atendidos por unidades de soporte vital avanzado y trasladados a 4 hospitales españoles entre el 1 de junio de 2020 y el 30 de junio de 2022. Se recogieron variables demográficas, fisiológicas, clínicas y analíticas. Se construyó y validó un modelo de riesgo para la mortalidad a un año usando una regresión de Cox. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 410 pacientes, con una tasa de mortalidad acumulada al año del 49%. La tasa de diagnóstico de sepsis (infección e incremento sobre el SOFA basal $ 2 puntos) fue del 29,2% en supervivientes frente a un 56,7% en no supervivientes. El modelo predictivo obtuvo un área bajo la curva de la característica operativa del receptor para la mortalidad a un año fue de 0,89, e incluyó: edad, institucionalización, índice de comorbilidad de Charlson ajustado por edad, presión parcial de dióxido de carbono, potasio, lactato, nitrógeno ureico en sangre, creatinina, saturación en relación con fracción inspirada de oxígeno y diagnóstico de sepsis. CONCLUSIONES: El modelo desarrollado con variables epidemiológicas, analíticas y clínicas mostró una excelente capacidad predictiva, y permitió identificar desde el primer contacto del paciente con el sistema sanitario, a modo de evento centinela, casos de alto riesgo.


Assuntos
Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Sepse , Adulto , Humanos , Ambulâncias , Ácido Láctico , Estudos Prospectivos , Sepse/diagnóstico , Espanha
10.
Arch Cardiol Mex ; 94(2): 181-190, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38648718

RESUMO

One of the complications during an acute coronary syndrome event is the presence of arrhythmias. Among them, those of the supraventricular type, especially atrial fibrillation, carry a poor prognosis both in the short and long term, being the cause of situations such as cerebrovascular event, ventricular arrhythmias, and increased mortality. The arrhythmia tends to appear in a certain population group with particular risk factors during the index event in approximately 10% of cases. Appropriate treatment at the time of its onset, thanks to the use of drugs that modulate heart rate, rhythm, and anticoagulant management in the most vulnerable groups, will lead to a less bleak outcome for these patients.


Una de las complicaciones durante un evento de síndrome coronario agudo es la presencia de arritmias. Dentro de ellas, las de tipo supraventricular, en especial fibrilación auricular, acarrea un mal pronóstico tanto a corto como a largo plazo y es la causa de situaciones como evento vascular cerebral, arritmias ventriculares y aumento de la mortalidad. Dicha arritmia tiende a aparecer en cierto grupo de población con particulares factores de riesgo durante el evento índice en aproximadamente 10% de los casos. Un tratamiento apropiado en el momento de su aparición, gracias al uso de fármacos que modulan la frecuencia cardiaca, el ritmo y el manejo anticoagulante en los grupos más vulnerables conllevará un desenlace menos sombrío para estos pacientes.


Assuntos
Síndrome Coronariana Aguda , Fibrilação Atrial , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/complicações , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/fisiopatologia , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/etiologia , Humanos , Fibrilação Atrial/complicações , Fibrilação Atrial/etiologia , Fatores de Risco
11.
Radiologia (Engl Ed) ; 66(2): 114-120, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38614528

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate if the tumour perfusion at the initial MRI scan is a marker of prognosis for survival in patients diagnosed with High Grade Gliomas (HGG). To analyse the risk factors which influence on the mortality from HGG to quantify the overall survival to be expected in patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The patients diagnosed with HGG through a MRI scan in a third-level hospital between 2017 and 2019 were selected. Clinical and tumour variables were collected. The survival analysis was used to determine the association between the tumour perfusion and the survival time. The relation between the collected variables and the survival period was assessed through Wald's statistical method, measuring the relationship via Cox's regression model. Finally, the type of relationship that exists between the tumour perfusion and the survival was analysed through the Lineal Regression method.Those statistical analysis were carried out using the software SPSS v.17. RESULTS: 38 patients were included (average age: 61.1 years old). The general average survival period was 20.6 months. A relationship between the tumour perfusion at the MRI scan and the overall survival has been identified, in detail, a group with intratumor values of relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV)>3.0 has shown a significant decline in the average survival period with regard to the average survival period of the group with values <3.0 (14.6 months vs. 22.8 months, p = 0.046). It has also been proved that variables like Karnofsky's scale and the response time since the intervention significantly influence on the survival period. CONCLUSIONS: It has become evident that the tumour perfusion via MRI scan has a prognostic value in the initial analysis of HGG. The average survival period of patients with rCBV less than or equal to 3.0 is significantly higher than those patients whose values are higher, which allows to be more precise with the prognosis of each patient.


Assuntos
Encéfalo , Glioma , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Perfusão , Glioma/diagnóstico por imagem , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética
12.
Rev Clin Esp (Barc) ; 224(5): 259-266, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38588945

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: some studies suggest that hypochloremia is a risk factor in the prognosis of heart failure (HF) in patients with recent decompensation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: retrospective cohort study of patients discharged due to HF decompensation who began follow-up in a specialized clinic. Two groups are defined: patients with hypochloremia (chloride < 98 mmol/L) and normochloremic patients (chloride > 98 mmol/L) in the initial assessment within the first month after discharge. The rate of intravenous diuretic rescue, emergency department visits, readmission for HF and cardiovascular (CV) death are compared using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: 165 patients were included (59% women, mean age 85 years), with 60 (36%) having hypochloremia. Both groups were comparable in terms of baseline characteristics, except for female sex, presence of peripheral artery disease, moderate-to-severe liver disease (more prevalent in the hypochloremia group), PROFUND index, and baseline furosemide dose (higher in patients with hypochloremia). The incidence of the primary event was higher in subjects with hypochloremia than in normochloremic subjects (HR: 1.59, 95% CI 0.97-2.62), mainly due to the need for intravenous diuretic rescue (HR: 1.86, 95% CI 1.07-3.24). CONCLUSIONS: hypochloremia following admission for HF decompensation is associated with a greater need for intravenous diuretic rescue therapy and probably worse overall prognosis across the spectrum of the disease, regardless of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).


Assuntos
Insuficiência Cardíaca , Humanos , Feminino , Estudos Retrospectivos , Insuficiência Cardíaca/sangue , Masculino , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Prognóstico , Idoso , Cloretos/sangue , Diuréticos/administração & dosagem , Fatores de Risco
13.
Emergencias ; 36(2): 116-122, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Espanhol, Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38597618

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To identify predictors for developing delayed neurological syndrome (DNS) after an initial episode of carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning in the interest of detecting patients most likely to develop DNS so that they can be followed. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective review of cases of CO poisoning treated in the past 10 years in the emergency departments of 4 hospitals in the AMICO study (Spanish acronym for the multicenter analysis of CO poisoning). We analyzed demographic characteristics of the patients and the clinical characteristics of the initial episode. The records of the cohort of patients with available follow-up information were reviewed to find cases of DNS. Data were analyzed by multivariant analysis to determine the relationship to characteristics of the initial exposure to CO. RESULTS: A total of 240 cases were identified. The median (interquartile range) age of the patients was 36.2 years (17.6-49.6 years); 108 patients (45.0%) were men, and the poisoning was accidental in 223 cases (92.9%). The median carboxyhemoglobin concentration on presentation was 12.7% (6.2%-18.7%). Follow-up details were available for 44 patients (18.3%). Eleven of those patients (25%) developed DNS. A low initial Glasgow Coma Scale score predicted the development of DNS with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.61 (95% CI, 0.41-0.92) and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.876 (95% CI, 0.761-0.990) (P .001). CONCLUSION: The initial Glasgow Coma Scale score seems to be a clinical predictor of DNS after CO poisoning. We consider it important to establish follow-up protocols for patients with CO poisoning treated in hospital EDs.


OBJETIVO: Identificar factores pronósticos de desarrollo de síndrome neurológico tardío (SNT) después de un episodio inicial de intoxicación por monóxido de carbono (ICO), con el fin detectar precozmente a la población más susceptible y facilitar su acceso a un seguimiento específico. METODO: Revisión retrospectiva de todos los casos de ICO que acudieron a los servicios de urgencias (SU) de 4 hospitales durante los últimos 10 años. Se analizaron datos demográficos y características clínicas en el momento del episodio. En la cohorte de pacientes con datos de seguimiento disponibles, se evaluó la aparición de SNT y su relación con diferentes variables en la exposición inicial al CO a través de técnicas de análisis multivariante. RESULTADOS: Se identificaron 240 pacientes. La mediana de edad fue de 36,2 años (17,6-49,6). De ellos 108 (45,0%) eran hombres y 223 casos (92,9%) fueron accidentales. El nivel medio de COHb fue del 12,7% (6,2-18,7). En 44 (18,3%) episodios se disponía de datos de un seguimiento específico. En esta cohorte, 11 (25%) pacientes desarrollaron SNT. Una puntuación inicial más baja en la Escala Coma de Glasgow (GCS) (OR: 0,61, IC 95%: 0,41-0,92) fue predictor independiente del desarrollo del SNT, con un ABC en la curva COR de 0,876 (IC 95%: 0,761-0,990, p 0,001). CONCLUSIONES: Una puntuación inicial baja en la GCS parece ser un predictor clínico de desarrollo de SNT en la ICO. Dada la incidencia de SNT, consideramos fundamental establecer protocolos de seguimiento específico de estos pacientes tras su asistencia inicial en los SU.


Assuntos
Intoxicação por Monóxido de Carbono , Oxigenoterapia Hiperbárica , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Intoxicação por Monóxido de Carbono/complicações , Intoxicação por Monóxido de Carbono/diagnóstico , Intoxicação por Monóxido de Carbono/terapia , Oxigenoterapia Hiperbárica/métodos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
14.
Arch Soc Esp Oftalmol (Engl Ed) ; 99(6): 232-236, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38663716

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the presence of subfoveal hyperreflective dots (SfHD) using optical coherence tomography (OCT) in macular holes (MH) and establish whether there is a relationship with postoperative anatomical and functional outcomes. METHODS: An observational cross-sectional study was conducted at the Dr. Elías Santana Hospital. Sixty-eight eyes of 67 patients with a tomographic diagnosis of full-thickness MH who underwent pars plana vitrectomy (PPV) and internal limiting membrane (ILM) peeling were included. Preoperative and postoperative measurements were obtained using radial macular scans and HD raster scans with Optovue and Cirrus 5000 (Zeiss) OCT machines. The main outcome measures were anatomical closure by OCT and functional outcome through best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA). RESULTS: The anatomical closure rate in our study was 63%. MHs that failed to achieve anatomical closure exhibited a higher number of hyperreflective dots and worse postoperative BCVA. A statistically significant association was found between exposed retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) in microns and the number of SfHD (P = .001). CONCLUSION: SfHD is a common tomographic finding in MH, and the presence of a higher number of these points is associated with poorer anatomical and functional outcomes. This imaging finding is a potential prognostic biomarker in this pathology.


Assuntos
Perfurações Retinianas , Tomografia de Coerência Óptica , Acuidade Visual , Vitrectomia , Humanos , Perfurações Retinianas/cirurgia , Perfurações Retinianas/diagnóstico por imagem , Estudos Transversais , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Prognóstico , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fóvea Central/diagnóstico por imagem , Fóvea Central/patologia , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Biomarcadores , Epitélio Pigmentado da Retina/patologia , Epitélio Pigmentado da Retina/diagnóstico por imagem
15.
Med Intensiva (Engl Ed) ; 48(5): 254-262, 2024 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38519374

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To describe and characterize a cohort of octogenarian patients admitted to the ICU of the University Central Hospital of Asturias (HUCA). DESIGN: Retrospective, observational and descriptive study of 14 months' duration. SETTING: Cardiac and Medical intensive care units (ICU) of the HUCA (Oviedo). PARTICIPANTS: Patients over 80 years old who were admitted to the ICU for more than 24 h. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST: Age, sex, comorbidity, functional dependence, treatment, complications, evolution, mortality. RESULTS: The most frequent reasons for admission were cardiac surgery and pneumonia. The average admission stay was significantly longer in patients under 85 years of age (p = 0,037). 84,3% of the latter benefited from invasive mechanical ventilation compared to 46,2% of older patients (p = <0,001). Patients over 85 years of age presented greater fragility. Admission for cardiac surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (HR = 0,18; 95% CI (0,062-0,527; p = 0,002). CONCLUSIONS: The results have shown an association between the reason for admission to the ICU and the risk of mortality in octogenarian patients. Cardiac surgery was associated with a better prognosis compared to medical pathology, where pneumonia was associated with a higher risk of mortality. Furthermore, a significant positive association was observed between age and frailty.


Assuntos
Progressão da Doença , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Humanos , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos Retrospectivos , Masculino , Feminino , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Tempo de Internação/estatística & dados numéricos , Respiração Artificial/estatística & dados numéricos , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Fatores Etários , Pneumonia/epidemiologia , Pneumonia/mortalidade , Comorbidade , Espanha/epidemiologia
16.
Actas Dermosifiliogr ; 115(7): 663-669, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês, Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38452890

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of melanoma is rising in Spain. The prognostic stages of patients with melanoma are determined by various biological factors, such as tumor thickness, ulceration, or the presence of regional or distant metastases. The Spanish Academy of Dermatology and Venereology (AEDV) has encouraged the creation of a Spanish Melanoma Registry (REGESMEL) to evaluate other individual and health system-related factors that may impact the prognosis of patients with melanoma. The aim of this article is to introduce REGESMEL and provide basic descriptive data for its first year of operation. METHODS: REGESMEL is a prospective, multicentre cohort of consecutive patients with invasive cutaneous melanoma that collects demographic and staging data as well as individual and healthcare-related baseline data. It also records the medical and surgical treatment received by patients. RESULTS: A total of 450 cases of invasive cutaneous melanoma from 19 participant centres were included, with a predominance of thin melanomas≤1mm thick (54.7%), mainly located on the posterior trunk (35.2%). Selective sentinel lymph node biopsy was performed in 40.7% of cases. Most cases of melanoma were suspected by the patient (30.4%), or his/her dermatologist (29.6%). Patients received care mainly in public health centers (85.2%), with tele-dermatology resources being used in 21.6% of the cases. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of the pathological and demographic variables of melanoma cases is consistent with data from former studies. REGESMEL has already recruited patients from 15 Spanish provinces and given its potential representativeness, it renders the Registry as an important tool to address a wide range of research questions.


Assuntos
Dermatologia , Melanoma , Sistema de Registros , Neoplasias Cutâneas , Humanos , Melanoma/epidemiologia , Melanoma/cirurgia , Melanoma/patologia , Espanha/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Cutâneas/patologia , Neoplasias Cutâneas/cirurgia , Neoplasias Cutâneas/epidemiologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Masculino , Dermatologia/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Venereologia , Academias e Institutos/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Biópsia de Linfonodo Sentinela/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estadiamento de Neoplasias
17.
Med Intensiva (Engl Ed) ; 48(6): 326-340, 2024 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38462398

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To validate the unsupervised cluster model (USCM) developed during the first pandemic wave in a cohort of critically ill patients from the second and third pandemic waves. DESIGN: Observational, retrospective, multicentre study. SETTING: Intensive Care Unit (ICU). PATIENTS: Adult patients admitted with COVID-19 and respiratory failure during the second and third pandemic waves. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST: Collected data included demographic and clinical characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory tests and ICU outcomes. To validate our original USCM, we assigned a phenotype to each patient of the validation cohort. The performance of the classification was determined by Silhouette coefficient (SC) and general linear modelling. In a post-hoc analysis we developed and validated a USCM specific to the validation set. The model's performance was measured using accuracy test and area under curve (AUC) ROC. RESULTS: A total of 2330 patients (mean age 63 [53-82] years, 1643 (70.5%) male, median APACHE II score (12 [9-16]) and SOFA score (4 [3-6]) were included. The ICU mortality was 27.2%. The USCM classified patients into 3 clinical phenotypes: A (n = 1206 patients, 51.8%); B (n = 618 patients, 26.5%), and C (n = 506 patients, 21.7%). The characteristics of patients within each phenotype were significantly different from the original population. The SC was -0.007 and the inclusion of phenotype classification in a regression model did not improve the model performance (0.79 and 0.78 ROC for original and validation model). The post-hoc model performed better than the validation model (SC -0.08). CONCLUSION: Models developed using machine learning techniques during the first pandemic wave cannot be applied with adequate performance to patients admitted in subsequent waves without prior validation.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Estado Terminal , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias , Análise por Conglomerados , APACHE , Mortalidade Hospitalar , SARS-CoV-2 , Insuficiência Respiratória , Escores de Disfunção Orgânica
18.
Actas Dermosifiliogr ; 115(7): 670-678, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês, Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38554750

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is the second leading cause of skin cancer mortality in Europe. Few studies have analyzed the different pathways of this tumor progression in its natural history. The main objective of this study was to analyze the different metastatic and progression pathways and their temporal occurrence in the evolution of cSCC. MATERIAL AND METHOD: We conducted a multicenter, retrospective, and observational study of consecutive high-risk sSCCs included in the SQUAMATA project. RESULTS: A total of 222 out of the 1346 patients included relapsed. The most frequent route of progression was the lymphatic one (62.6%). A total of 20.2% of the cases with lymphatic progression developed distant metastases. Only 1 case (3.1%) of distant metastasis followed local recurrence without previous lymphatic metastasis. The median time to disease-related mortality was longer in patients who developed systemic metastases than in those who died of locoregional progression. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality of patients with cSCC is mostly due to the regional progression of their lymphatic metastases. The appearance of distant metastases is practically always (96.9%) associated with previous lymphatic metastatic progression. Therefore, in the future, new studies will be needed to assess the regional management of cSCC in both surgical and adjuvant therapies.


Assuntos
Carcinoma de Células Escamosas , Progressão da Doença , Metástase Linfática , Neoplasias Cutâneas , Humanos , Neoplasias Cutâneas/patologia , Neoplasias Cutâneas/mortalidade , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas/patologia , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas/mortalidade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Estudos Longitudinais , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Metástase Linfática/patologia , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/epidemiologia , Adulto
19.
Artigo em Inglês, Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38521441

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Most of the complications associated with acute and symptomatic bradyarrhythmia (ASB) occur in the time from diagnosis to permanent pacemaker implantation (PPI). We aimed to evaluate the outcomes of an urgent 24/7 PPI service (PPI-24/7) for patients with ASB. METHODS: A total of 664 patients undergoing first-time PPI for ASB were prospectively assessed during 2 periods of identical length (18 months): 341 patients who underwent the procedure during working hours only (PPI-WH), and 323 patients who underwent the procedure after the implementation of the PPI-24/7 service. The primary safety endpoint was established as the cumulative 180-day incidence of complications related to the index arrhythmia and device implant. The primary efficacy endpoint was determined as the average number of hospital stays per patient. RESULTS: The PPI-24/7 period was associated with a significant shortening of the time from diagnosis to implantation (median [interquartile range]): 3hours [2-6] vs 16 [5-21]). The cumulative incidence of patients with complications at 180 days was lower in the PPI-24/7 period: 9% vs 17% (adjusted odds ratio, 0.5; P=.002), due to a significant reduction in preimplant complications: 2.5% vs 12% (P <.001). The average number of hospital stays was reduced by 2 per patient in the PPI-24/7 period (nonparametric P <.001). PPI-24/7 implants performed outside working hours (n=178) were safe, with a 180-day cumulative incidence in procedure-related complications of 3.9%. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with ASB, PPI-24/7 was associated with a significant reduction in patient morbidity and efficient hospital resource use.

20.
Conserv Biol ; : e14247, 2024 Mar 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38488677

RESUMO

Climate change is one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change, the global-scale impacts of which will intensify over the next 2 decades. Estimating the timing of unprecedented changes is not only challenging but is of great importance for the development of ecosystem conservation guidelines. Time of emergence (ToE) (point at which climate change can be differentiated from a previous climate), a widely applied concept in climatology studies, provides a robust but unexplored approach for assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, as described by the C criterion of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE). We identified 3 main theoretical considerations of ToE for RLE assessment (degree of stability, multifactorial instead of one-dimensional analyses, and hallmarks of ecosystem collapse) and 4 sources of uncertainty when applying ToE methodology (intermodel spread, historical reference period, consensus among variables, and consideration of different scenarios), which aims to avoid misuse and errors while promoting a proper application of the framework by scientists and practitioners. The incorporation of ToE for the RLE assessments adds important information for conservation priority setting that allows prediction of changes within and beyond the time frames proposed by the RLE.


Perspectivas sobre el momento del colapso ecosistémico en un clima cambiante Resumen El cambio climático es uno de los principales causantes del cambio ecosistémico, cuyo impacto a escala global se intensificará en las próximas dos décadas. No sólo es un reto estimar el momento de los cambios sin precedentes, sino también es de gran importancia para el desarrollo de las directrices de conservación de los ecosistemas. El momento de aparición (MdA), el punto en el que el cambio climático puede diferenciarse de un clima previo; es un concepto de aplicación extensa en los estudios de climatología y proporciona una estrategia sólida pero poco explorada para evaluar el riesgo del colapso ecosistémico, como está descrito por el criterio C de la Lista Roja de Ecosistemas (LRE) de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza. Identificamos las tres consideraciones teóricas del MdA para la evaluación de la LRE (grado de estabilidad, análisis multifactoriales en vez de unidimensionales y distintivos del colapso ecosistémico) y cuatro fuentes de incertidumbre cuando se aplica la metodología MdA (difusión intermodelo, periodo de referencia histórica, consenso entre las variables y consideración de escenarios distintos), la cual busca evitar el mal uso y los errores mientras se promueve una aplicación adecuada del marco de los científicos y lo practicantes. La incorporación del MdA a las evaluaciones de la LRE añade información importante para el establecimiento de prioridades de conservación que permiten la predicción de cambios dentro y más allá del marco temporal propuesto por la LRE.

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