Blinded predictions of host-guest standard free energies of binding in the SAMPL5 challenge.

In the context of the SAMPL5 blinded challenge standard free energies of binding were predicted for a dataset of 22 small guest molecules and three different host molecules octa-acids (OAH and OAMe) and a cucurbituril (CBC). Three sets of predictions were submitted, each based on different variations of classical molecular dynamics alchemical free energy calculation protocols based on the double annihilation method. The first model (model A) yields a free energy of binding based on computed free energy changes in solvated and host-guest complex phases; the second (model B) adds long range dispersion corrections to the previous result; the third (model C) uses an additional standard state correction term to account for the use of distance restraints during the molecular dynamics simulations. Model C performs the best in terms of mean unsigned error for all guests (MUE [Formula: see text]-95 % confidence interval) for the whole data set and in particular for the octa-acid systems (MUE [Formula: see text]). The overall correlation with experimental data for all models is encouraging ([Formula: see text]). The correlation between experimental and computational free energy of binding ranks as one of the highest with respect to other entries in the challenge. Nonetheless the large MUE for the best performing model highlights systematic errors, and submissions from other groups fared better with respect to this metric.

Resolving the problem of trapped water in binding cavities: prediction of host-guest binding free energies in the SAMPL5 challenge by funnel metadynamics.

The funnel metadynamics method enables rigorous calculation of the potential of mean force along an arbitrary binding path and thereby evaluation of the absolute binding free energy. A problem of such physical paths is that the mechanism characterizing the binding process is not always obvious. In particular, it might involve reorganization of the solvent in the binding site, which is not easily captured with a few geometrically defined collective variables that can be used for biasing. In this paper, we propose and test a simple method to resolve this trapped-water problem by dividing the process into an artificial host-desolvation step and an actual binding step. We show that, under certain circumstances, the contribution from the desolvation step can be calculated without introducing further statistical errors. We apply the method to the problem of predicting host-guest binding free energies in the SAMPL5 blind challenge, using two octa-acid hosts and six guest molecules. For one of the hosts, well-converged results are obtained and the prediction of relative binding free energies is the best among all the SAMPL5 submissions. For the other host, which has a narrower binding pocket, the statistical uncertainties are slightly higher; longer simulations would therefore be needed to obtain conclusive results.

The SAMPL5 host-guest challenge: computing binding free energies and enthalpies from explicit solvent simulations by the attach-pull-release (APR) method.

The absolute binding free energies and binding enthalpies of twelve host-guest systems in the SAMPL5 blind challenge were computed using our attach-pull-release (APR) approach. This method has previously shown good correlations between experimental and calculated binding data in retrospective studies of cucurbit[7]uril (CB7) and ß-cyclodextrin (ßCD) systems. In the present work, the computed binding free energies for host octa acid (OA or OAH) and tetra-endo-methyl octa-acid (TEMOA or OAMe) with guests are in good agreement with prospective experimental data, with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8 and root-mean-squared error of 1.7 kcal/mol using the TIP3P water model. The binding enthalpy calculations achieve moderate correlations, with R2 of 0.5 and RMSE of 2.5 kcal/mol, for TIP3P water. Calculations using the newly developed OPC water model also show good performance. Furthermore, the present calculations semi-quantitatively capture the experimental trend of enthalpy-entropy compensation observed, and successfully predict guests with the strongest and weakest binding affinity. The most populated binding poses of all twelve systems, based on clustering analysis of 750 ns molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories, were extracted and analyzed. Computational methods using MD simulations and explicit solvent models in a rigorous statistical thermodynamic framework, like APR, can generate reasonable predictions of binding thermodynamics. Especially with continuing improvement in simulation force fields, such methods hold the promise of making substantial contributions to hit identification and lead optimization in the drug discovery process.

A combined treatment of hydration and dynamical effects for the modeling of host-guest binding thermodynamics: the SAMPL5 blinded challenge.

As part of the SAMPL5 blinded experiment, we computed the absolute binding free energies of 22 host-guest complexes employing a novel approach based on the BEDAM single-decoupling alchemical free energy protocol with parallel replica exchange conformational sampling and the AGBNP2 implicit solvation model specifically customized to treat the effect of water displacement as modeled by the Hydration Site Analysis method with explicit solvation. Initial predictions were affected by the lack of treatment of ionic charge screening, which is very significant for these highly charged hosts, and resulted in poor relative ranking of negatively versus positively charged guests. Binding free energies obtained with Debye-Hückel treatment of salt effects were in good agreement with experimental measurements. Water displacement effects contributed favorably and very significantly to the observed binding affinities; without it, the modeling predictions would have grossly underestimated binding. The work validates the implicit/explicit solvation approach employed here and it shows that comprehensive physical models can be effective at predicting binding affinities of molecular complexes requiring accurate treatment of conformational dynamics and hydration.

On the fly estimation of host-guest binding free energies using the movable type method: participation in the SAMPL5 blind challenge.

We review our performance in the SAMPL5 challenge for predicting host-guest binding affinities using the movable type (MT) method. The challenge included three hosts, acyclic Cucurbit[2]uril and two octa-acids with and without methylation at the entrance to their binding cavities. Each host was associated with 6-10 guest molecules. The MT method extrapolates local energy landscapes around particular molecular states and estimates the free energy by Monte Carlo integration over these landscapes. Two blind submissions pairing MT with variants of the KECSA potential function yielded mean unsigned errors of 1.26 and 1.53 kcal/mol for the non-methylated octa-acid, 2.83 and 3.06 kcal/mol for the methylated octa-acid, and 2.77 and 3.36 kcal/mol for Cucurbit[2]uril host. While our results are in reasonable agreement with experiment, we focused on particular cases in which our estimates gave incorrect results, particularly with regard to association between the octa-acids and an adamantane derivative. Working on the hypothesis that differential solvation effects play a role in effecting computed binding affinities for the parent octa-acid and the methylated octa-acid and that the ligands bind inside the pockets (rather than on the surface) we devised a new solvent accessible surface area term to better quantify solvation energy contributions in MT based studies. To further explore this issue a, molecular dynamics potential of mean force (PMF) study indicates that, as found by our docking calculations, the stable binding mode for this ligand is inside (rather than surface bound) the octa-acid cavity whether the entrance is methylated or not. The PMF studies also obtained the correct order for the methylation-induced change in binding affinities and associated the difference, to a large extent to differential solvation effects. Overall, the SAMPL5 challenge yielded in improvements our solvation modeling and also demonstrated the need for thorough validation of input data integrity prior to any computational analysis.

Binding free energies in the SAMPL5 octa-acid host-guest challenge calculated with DFT-D3 and CCSD(T).

We have tried to calculate the free energy for the binding of six small ligands to two variants of the octa-acid deep cavitand host in the SAMPL5 blind challenge. We employed structures minimised with dispersion-corrected density-functional theory with small basis sets and energies were calculated using large basis sets. Solvation energies were calculated with continuum methods and thermostatistical corrections were obtained from frequencies calculated at the HF-3c level. Care was taken to minimise the effects of the flexibility of the host by keeping the complexes as symmetric and similar as possible. In some calculations, the large net charge of the host was reduced by removing the propionate and benzoate groups. In addition, the effect of a restricted molecular dynamics sampling of structures was tested. Finally, we tried to improve the energies by using the DLPNO-CCSD(T) approach. Unfortunately, results of quite poor quality were obtained, with no correlation to the experimental data, systematically too positive affinities (by ~50 kJ/mol) and a mean absolute error (after removal of the systematic error) of 11-16 kJ/mol. DLPNO-CCSD(T) did not improve the results, so the accuracy is not limited by the energy function. Instead, four likely sources of errors were identified: first, the minimised structures were often incorrect, owing to the omission of explicit solvent. They could be partly improved by performing the minimisations in a continuum solvent with four water molecules around the charged groups of the ligands. Second, some ligands could bind in several different conformations, requiring sampling of reasonable structures. Third, there is an indication the continuum-solvation model has problems to accurately describe the binding of both the negatively and positively charged guest molecules. Fourth, different methods to calculate the thermostatistical corrections gave results that differed by up to 30 kJ/mol and there is an indication that HF-3c overestimates the entropy term. In conclusion, it is a challenge to calculate binding affinities for this octa-acid system with quantum-mechanical methods.

Lessons learned from comparing molecular dynamics engines on the SAMPL5 dataset.

We describe our efforts to prepare common starting structures and models for the SAMPL5 blind prediction challenge. We generated the starting input files and single configuration potential energies for the host-guest in the SAMPL5 blind prediction challenge for the GROMACS, AMBER, LAMMPS, DESMOND and CHARMM molecular simulation programs. All conversions were fully automated from the originally prepared AMBER input files using a combination of the ParmEd and InterMol conversion programs. We find that the energy calculations for all molecular dynamics engines for this molecular set agree to better than 0.1 % relative absolute energy for all energy components, and in most cases an order of magnitude better, when reasonable choices are made for different cutoff parameters. However, there are some surprising sources of statistically significant differences. Most importantly, different choices of Coulomb's constant between programs are one of the largest sources of discrepancies in energies. We discuss the measures required to get good agreement in the energies for equivalent starting configurations between the simulation programs, and the energy differences that occur when simulations are run with program-specific default simulation parameter values. Finally, we discuss what was required to automate this conversion and comparison.

Prediction of cyclohexane-water distribution coefficient for SAMPL5 drug-like compounds with the QMPFF3 and ARROW polarizable force fields.

We present the performance of blind predictions of water-cyclohexane distribution coefficients for 53 drug-like compounds in the SAMPL5 challenge by three methods currently in use within our group. Two of them utilize QMPFF3 and ARROW, polarizable force-fields of varying complexity, and the third uses the General Amber Force-Field (GAFF). The polarizable FF's are implemented in an in-house MD package, Arbalest. We find that when we had time to parametrize the functional groups with care (batch 0), the polarizable force-fields outperformed the non-polarizable one. Conversely, on the full set of 53 compounds, GAFF performed better than both QMPFF3 and ARROW. We also describe the torsion-restrain method we used to improve sampling of molecular conformational space and thus the overall accuracy of prediction. The SAMPL5 challenge highlighted several drawbacks of our force-fields, such as our significant systematic over-estimation of hydrophobic interactions, specifically for alkanes and aromatic rings.

Calculation of distribution coefficients in the SAMPL5 challenge from atomic solvation parameters and surface areas.

In the context of SAMPL5, we submitted blind predictions of the cyclohexane/water distribution coefficient (D) for a series of 53 drug-like molecules. Our method is purely empirical and based on the additive contribution of each solute atom to the free energy of solvation in water and in cyclohexane. The contribution of each atom depends on the atom type and on the exposed surface area. Comparatively to similar methods in the literature, we used a very small set of atomic parameters: only 10 for solvation in water and 1 for solvation in cyclohexane. As a result, the method is protected from overfitting and the error in the blind predictions could be reasonably estimated. Moreover, this approach is fast: it takes only 0.5 s to predict the distribution coefficient for all 53 SAMPL5 compounds, allowing its application in virtual screening campaigns. The performance of our approach (submission 49) is modest but satisfactory in view of its efficiency: the root mean square error (RMSE) was 3.3 log D units for the 53 compounds, while the RMSE of the best performing method (using COSMO-RS) was 2.1 (submission 16). Our method is implemented as a Python script available at https://github.com/diogomart/SAMPL5-DC-surface-empirical .

Blind prediction of distribution in the SAMPL5 challenge with QM based protomer and pK a corrections.

The computation of distribution coefficients between polar and apolar phases requires both an accurate characterization of transfer free energies between phases and proper accounting of ionization and protomerization. We present a protocol for accurately predicting partition coefficients between two immiscible phases, and then apply it to 53 drug-like molecules in the SAMPL5 blind prediction challenge. Our results combine implicit solvent QM calculations with classical MD simulations using the non-Boltzmann Bennett free energy estimator. The OLYP/DZP/SMD method yields predictions that have a small deviation from experiment (RMSD = 2.3 [Formula: see text] D units), relative to other participants in the challenge. Our free energy corrections based on QM protomer and [Formula: see text] calculations increase the correlation between predicted and experimental distribution coefficients, for all methods used. Unfortunately, these corrections are overly hydrophilic, and fail to account for additional effects such as aggregation, water dragging and the presence of polar impurities in the apolar phase. We show that, although expensive, QM-NBB free energy calculations offer an accurate and robust method that is superior to standard MM and QM techniques alone.

Blinded predictions of distribution coefficients in the SAMPL5 challenge.

In the context of the SAMPL5 challenge water-cyclohexane distribution coefficients for 53 drug-like molecules were predicted. Four different models based on molecular dynamics free energy calculations were tested. All models initially assumed only one chemical state present in aqueous or organic phases. Model A is based on results from an alchemical annihilation scheme; model B adds a long range correction for the Lennard Jones potentials to model A; model C adds charging free energy corrections; model D applies the charging correction from model C to ionizable species only. Model A and B perform better in terms of mean-unsigned error ([Formula: see text] D units - 95 % confidence interval) and determination coefficient [Formula: see text], while charging corrections lead to poorer results with model D ([Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]). Because overall errors were large, a retrospective analysis that allowed co-existence of ionisable and neutral species of a molecule in aqueous phase was investigated. This considerably reduced systematic errors ([Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]). Overall accurate [Formula: see text] predictions for drug-like molecules that may adopt multiple tautomers and charge states proved difficult, indicating a need for methodological advances to enable satisfactory treatment by explicit-solvent molecular simulations.

Predicting cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients for the SAMPL5 challenge using MOSCED and the SMD solvation model.

We present blind predictions using the solubility parameter based method MOSCED submitted for the SAMPL5 challenge on calculating cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients at 298 K. Reference data to parameterize MOSCED was generated with knowledge only of chemical structure by performing solvation free energy calculations using electronic structure calculations in the SMD continuum solvent. To maintain simplicity and use only a single method, we approximate the distribution coefficient with the partition coefficient of the neutral species. Over the final SAMPL5 set of 53 compounds, we achieved an average unsigned error of [Formula: see text] log units (ranking 15 out of 62 entries), the correlation coefficient (R) was [Formula: see text] (ranking 35), and [Formula: see text] of the predictions had the correct sign (ranking 30). While used here to predict cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients at 298 K, MOSCED is broadly applicable, allowing one to predict temperature dependent infinite dilution activity coefficients in any solvent for which parameters exist, and provides a means by which an excess Gibbs free energy model may be parameterized to predict composition dependent phase-equilibrium.

Prediction of cyclohexane-water distribution coefficients with COSMO-RS on the SAMPL5 data set.

The Conductor-Like-Screening-Model for Real Solvents (COSMO-RS) method has been used for the blind prediction of cyclohexane-water distribution coefficients logD within the SAMPL challenge. The partition coefficient logP of the neutral species was calculated first and then corrected for dissociation or protonation, as appropriate for acidic or basic solutes, to obtain the cyclohexane-water logD. Using the latest version of the COSMOtherm implementation, this approach in combination with a rigorous conformational sampling yielded a predictive accuracy of 2.11 log units (RMSD) for the 53 compounds of the blind prediction dataset. By that it was the most accurate of all contest submissions and it also achieved the best rank order. The RMSD mainly arises from a group of outliers in the negative logD range, which at least partly may arise from dimerization or other experimental problems coming up for very polar molecules in very non-polar solvents.

All-atom/coarse-grained hybrid predictions of distribution coefficients in SAMPL5.

We present blind predictions submitted to the SAMPL5 challenge on calculating distribution coefficients. The predictions were based on estimating the solvation free energies in water and cyclohexane of the 53 compounds in the challenge. These free energies were computed using alchemical free energy simulations based on a hybrid all-atom/coarse-grained model. The compounds were treated with the general Amber force field, whereas the solvent molecules were treated with the Elba coarse-grained model. Considering the simplicity of the solvent model and that we approximate the distribution coefficient with the partition coefficient of the neutral species, the predictions are of good accuracy. The correlation coefficient, R is 0.64, 82 % of the predictions have the correct sign and the mean absolute deviation is 1.8 log units. This is on a par with or better than the other simulation-based predictions in the challenge. We present an analysis of the deviations to experiments and compare the predictions to another submission that used all-atom solvent.

Extended solvent-contact model approach to blind SAMPL5 prediction challenge for the distribution coefficients of drug-like molecules.

The performance of the extended solvent-contact model has been addressed in the SAMPL5 blind prediction challenge for distribution coefficient (LogD) of drug-like molecules with respect to the cyclohexane/water partitioning system. All the atomic parameters defined for 41 atom types in the solvation free energy function were optimized by operating a standard genetic algorithm with respect to water and cyclohexane solvents. In the parameterizations for cyclohexane, the experimental solvation free energy (ΔG sol ) data of 15 molecules for 1-octanol were combined with those of 77 molecules for cyclohexane to construct a training set because ΔG sol values of the former were unavailable for cyclohexane in publicly accessible databases. Using this hybrid training set, we established the LogD prediction model with the correlation coefficient (R), average error (AE), and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.55, 1.53, and 3.03, respectively, for the comparison of experimental and computational results for 53 SAMPL5 molecules. The modest accuracy in LogD prediction could be attributed to the incomplete optimization of atomic solvation parameters for cyclohexane. With respect to 31 SAMPL5 molecules containing the atom types for which experimental reference data for ΔG sol were available for both water and cyclohexane, the accuracy in LogD prediction increased remarkably with the R, AE, and RMSE values of 0.82, 0.89, and 1.60, respectively. This significant enhancement in performance stemmed from the better optimization of atomic solvation parameters by limiting the element of training set to the molecules with experimental ΔG sol data for cyclohexane. Due to the simplicity in model building and to low computational cost for parameterizations, the extended solvent-contact model is anticipated to serve as a valuable computational tool for LogD prediction upon the enrichment of experimental ΔG sol data for organic solvents.