The External Validation of GLOBE and UK-PBC Risk Scores for Predicting Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment Response in a Large U.S. Cohort of Primary Biliary Cholangitis Patients.

Background: The cornerstone treatment for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), but many patients exhibit an incomplete response, leading to disease progression. Risk prediction models like the GLOBE and UK-PBC scores hold promise for patient stratification and management. We aimed to independently assess the predictive accuracy of these risk scores for UDCA response in a prospective U.S. cohort. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study at a U.S. liver center, monitoring UDCA-treated PBC patients over a one-year follow-up. We evaluated the predictive efficacy of the GLOBE and UK-PBC scores for UDCA treatment response, comparing them to the Paris II criteria. Efficacy was assessed using univariate and multivariate analyses, followed by prognostic performance evaluation via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: We evaluated 136 PBC patients undergoing UDCA therapy. Based on the Paris II criteria, patients were categorized into UDCA full-response and non-response groups. The GLOBE score identified a non-responder rate of 18% (p = 0.205), compared to 20% (p = 0.014) with the Paris II criteria. Multivariate analysis, adjusted for age and biochemical markers, showed that both the GLOBE and UK-PBC scores were strongly associated with treatment response (p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve was 0.87 (95% CI 0.83-0.95) for the GLOBE score and 0.94 (95% CI 0.86-0.99) for the UK-PBC risk score. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that GLOBE and UK-PBC scores effectively predict UDCA treatment response in PBC patients. The early identification of patients at risk of an incomplete response could improve treatment strategies and identify patients who may need second-line therapies.

Long-term outcomes in patients with primary biliary cholangitis complicated with CREST syndrome.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is frequently associated with autoimmune disease. Although PBC complicated with CREST syndrome (PBC-CREST) has been reported, the long-term outcomes of the affected patients have not been fully investigated. Herein, the long-term outcomes of PBC-CREST were evaluated. Next, the GLOBE and UK-PBC scores were validated and compared between the PBC alone and PBC-CREST groups. A total of 302 patients who were diagnosed with PBC between December 1990 and August 2021 at Fukushima Medical University Hospital were included. The liver transplantation (LT)-free survival rates were compared between patients with PBC alone (n = 245) and those with PBC-CREST (n = 57). Moreover, 173 patients, excluding those with liver-related death/LT within 1 year after ursodeoxycholic acid administration, were divided into two subgroups (PBC alone (n = 147) and PBC-CREST (n = 26)), and the GLOBE and UK-PBC scores were compared between the subgroups. The survival rates without LT (3/5/10 years) were 92/87/80% for the PBC-alone group and 98/96/96% for the PBC-CREST group, with a significantly better prognosis in the PBC-CREST group (log-rank P = 0.0172). Multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of CREST syndrome is an independent protective factor for the presence of cirrhosis. The predicted 5/10/15-year risks of liver-related death or LT based on the UK-PBC score were significantly lower in the PBC-CREST group (2.4/7.6/13.2%) than in the PBC-alone group (4.8/11.8/18.8%) (P < 0.05). The predicted 3/5-year LT-free survival rates based on the GLOBE score were significantly higher in the PBC-CREST group (93/88%) than in the PBC-alone group (88/81%) (P < 0.05). Patients with PBC-CREST may have better long-term outcomes than those with PBC alone.

Treatment response to ursodeoxycholic acid in primary biliary cholangitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment response definitions have been introduced in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). However, the lack of a gold standard results in heterogeneity in second-line treatment research and clinical practice. AIMS: This study aimed to explore which UDCA treatment response endpoint serves as the most accurate predictive model of long-term outcome. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of UDCA treatment response endpoints (and corresponding validations) were performed. RESULTS: Sixteen individual UDCA treatment response endpoints and 96 external validations were found. Barcelona, Paris-1, Paris-2, Rotterdam, Toronto and GLOBE and UK-PBC Risk Scores are currently most robustly validated in external populations. The results show that the continuous models (GLOBE and UK-PBC Risk Scores) serve as the most accurate predictive models. Besides standard UDCA treatment response endpoints, the alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin normalization has been suggested as a new therapeutic target. CONCLUSIONS: The GLOBE and UK-PBC Risk Scores are the most suitable for the real-world allocation of second-line therapies (obeticholic acid and fibrates). However, in the wake of the recent findings, alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin normalization should be the primary outcome in trial research in PBC.

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

An international genome-wide meta-analysis of primary biliary cholangitis: Novel risk loci and candidate drugs.

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease in which autoimmune destruction of the small intrahepatic bile ducts eventually leads to cirrhosis. Many patients have inadequate response to licensed medications, motivating the search for novel therapies. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and meta-analyses (GWMA) of PBC have identified numerous risk loci for this condition, providing insight into its aetiology. We undertook the largest GWMA of PBC to date, aiming to identify additional risk loci and prioritise candidate genes for in silico drug efficacy screening. METHODS: We combined new and existing genotype data for 10,516 cases and 20,772 controls from 5 European and 2 East Asian cohorts. RESULTS: We identified 56 genome-wide significant loci (20 novel) including 46 in European, 13 in Asian, and 41 in combined cohorts; and a 57th genome-wide significant locus (also novel) in conditional analysis of the European cohorts. Candidate genes at newly identified loci include FCRL3, INAVA, PRDM1, IRF7, CCR6, CD226, and IL12RB1, which each play key roles in immunity. Pathway analysis reiterated the likely importance of pattern recognition receptor and TNF signalling, JAK-STAT signalling, and differentiation of T helper (TH)1 and TH17 cells in the pathogenesis of this disease. Drug efficacy screening identified several medications predicted to be therapeutic in PBC, some of which are well-established in the treatment of other autoimmune disorders. CONCLUSIONS: This study has identified additional risk loci for PBC, provided a hierarchy of agents that could be trialled in this condition, and emphasised the value of genetic and genomic approaches to drug discovery in complex disorders. LAY SUMMARY: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic liver disease that eventually leads to cirrhosis. In this study, we analysed genetic information from 10,516 people with PBC and 20,772 healthy individuals recruited in Canada, China, Italy, Japan, the UK, or the USA. We identified several genetic regions associated with PBC. Each of these regions contains several genes. For each region, we used diverse sources of evidence to help us choose the gene most likely to be involved in causing PBC. We used these 'candidate genes' to help us identify medications that are currently used for treatment of other conditions, which might also be useful for treatment of PBC.

Current Status of Liver Transplantation for Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is an autoimmune cholestatic liver disease diagnosed with elevated alkaline phosphatase in the presence of antimitochondrial antibody. With the introduction and widespread use of ursodeoxycholic acid the proportion of PBC patients undergoing liver transplant (LT) has decreased. However, up to 40% of patients are ursodeoxycholic acid nonresponders and require second-line treatment or progress to end-stage liver disease requiring LT. Several scoring systems have been developed and validated to assess treatment response and transplant-free survival in patients. Although PBC is a favorable indication for LT, recurrence of PBC may occur and requires biopsy for diagnosis.

Geoepidemiology of Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Lessons from Switzerland.

No data on primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are available in Switzerland. We established a national patient cohort to obtain information on PBC phenotypes and disease course in Switzerland. Local databases in all university hospitals and in two large secondary centers were searched for case finding. In addition, all primary care physicians, gastroenterologists, rheumatologists, and dermatologists were invited to contribute patients from their own medical records. PBC diagnosis was centrally reviewed. Five hundred one PBC patients were identified, 474 were included in data analysis, and 449 of them were enrolled by tertiary centers. The catchment area accounts for approximately one third of the Swiss population or approximately 2.8 million inhabitants. The median age at diagnosis was 53 years, 84% were women, and 86% were anti-mitochondrial antibody positive. The median follow-up was 5.4 years, 12.6% experienced a liver-related endpoint. Splenomegaly was present at diagnosis in one quarter of patients and in half of male patients. Approximately one third were non-responders to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). The median transplant-free survival at 10 years was 85%. The following variables were independently associated with poor outcome: low platelet count at baseline (HR = 0.99, p < 0.0001), elevated alkaline phosphatase at baseline (HR = 1.36, p < 0.0001), elevated bilirubin at baseline (HR = 1.11, p = 0.001), and elevated alanine aminotransaminase (HR = 1.35, p = 0.04) after 12 months of UDCA therapy. The AUROC for the UK-PBC risk score at 5, 10, and 15 years was 0.82. The AUROC for the Globe score at 5, 10, and 15 years was 0.77. Patients included in this study are currently being enrolled in a prospective nationwide registry with biobank, taking advantage of the collaboration network generated by this study. Our study provides the first snapshot of PBC in Switzerland, describing a diagnostic delay with one quarter of patients diagnosed when already in the cirrhotic stage. We were also able to externally validate the UK-PBC risk score and the Globe score. The ongoing nationwide prospective registry will be fundamental to improve disease awareness and interdisciplinary collaborations and will serve as a platform for clinical and translational research. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: clinicaltrials.gov : NCT02846896; SNCTP000001870.

Long-Term Fenofibrate Treatment in Primary Biliary Cholangitis Improves Biochemistry but Not the UK-PBC Risk Score.

BACKGROUND: Fenofibrate (FF) has been suggested as a second-line agent in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) patients who do not achieve adequate biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) monotherapy. Limited data exist on FF use beyond 12 months, and its long-term effects are unclear. AIM: To study the biochemical outcome of long-term (>12 months) FF treatment in combination with UDCA (FF + UDCA) in PBC patients and to determine the effect on predicted prognosis using the UK-PBC Risk Score. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of all PBC patients treated in a specialist center with FF + UDCA therapy after failure to achieve biochemical response. Liver and renal biochemical indices and the UK-PBC Risk Score at baseline and at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months of FF + UDCA treatment were compared. Biochemical response was assessed using the POISE trial criteria at the end of FF + UDCA treatment. RESULTS: Data from 23 patients treated with FF + UDCA combination were analyzed. The median dose of fenofibrate was 200 mg/day, and median treatment duration was 21 months (range 1-123 months). Six (26 %) patients discontinued FF within 1 year. In patients who completed 12 months (n = 17) and long-term therapy, significant decrease in ALP was seen at 12 (p = 0.0002), 24 (p = 0.002), and 36 (p = 0.03) months. More than 75 % patients met the POISE criteria of ALP response at all study time points. There was no significant improvement in the 5-, 10-, and 15-year UK-PBC Risk Scores after FF + UDCA treatment. No significant renal impairment or adverse events were reported. CONCLUSION: The long-term treatment of PBC patients with fenofibrate as an adjunct to UDCA is safe and effective in improving ALP, but the treatment did not significantly reduce the estimated probability of liver-related death or need for liver transplantation.