Diversity of lichen mycobionts and photobionts and their relationships in the Ny-Ålesund region (Svalbard, High Arctic).

Lichens are dual organisms, with one major mycobiont and one major photobiont in each lichen symbiosis, which can survive extreme environmental conditions in the Arctic. However, the diversity and distribution of lichen photobionts in the Arctic remain poorly understood compared to their mycobiont partners. This study explored the diversity of lichen mycobionts and photobionts in 197 lichen samples collected from the Ny-Ålesund region (Svalbard, High Arctic). The nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) regions were sequenced and phylogenetic analyses were performed. The relationships between mycobionts and photobionts, as well as the association patterns, were also investigated. A total of 48 species of lichen mycobionts (16 families, nine orders) and 31 species/lineages of photobionts were identified. These 31 photobiont species belonged to one class (Trebouxiophyceae) and five genera, including 22 species of Trebouxia, five species of Asterochloris, two species of Chloroidium, one species of Symbiochloris, and one species of Coccomyxa. The results indicated that most analyzed lichen mycobionts could associate with multiple photobiont species, and the photobionts also exhibited a similar pattern. The results provided an important reference dataset for characterizing the diversity of lichen mycobionts and photobionts in the High Arctic region.

Carboxylation capacity is the main limitation of carbon assimilation in High Arctic shrubs.

Increases in shrub height, biomass and canopy cover are key whole-plant features of warming-induced vegetation change in tundra. We investigated leaf functional traits underlying photosynthetic capacity of Arctic shrub species, particularly its main limiting processes such as mesophyll conductance. In this nutrient-limited ecosystem, we expect leaf nitrogen concentration to be the main limiting factor for photosynthesis. We measured the net photosynthetic rate at saturated light (Asat) in three Salix species throughout a glacial valley in High-Arctic tundra and used a causal approach to test relationships between leaf stomatal and mesophyll conductances (gsc, gm), carboxylation capacity (Vcmax), nitrogen and phosphorus concentration (Narea, Parea) and leaf mass ratio (LMA). Arctic Salix species showed no difference in Asat compared to a global data set, while being characterized by higher Narea, Parea and LMA. Vcmax, gsc and gm independently increased Asat, with Vcmax as its main limitation. We highlighted a nitrogen-influenced pathway for increasing photosynthesis in the two prostrate mesic habitat species. In contrast, the erect wetland habitat Salix richardsonii mainly increased Asat with increasing gsc. Overall, our study revealed high photosynthetic capacities of Arctic Salix species but contrasting regulatory pathways that may influence shrub ability to respond to environmental changes in High Arctic tundra.

Warming alters cascading effects of a dominant arthropod predator on fungal community composition in the Arctic.

Rapid climate change in the Arctic is altering microbial structure and function, with important consequences for the global ecosystem. Emerging evidence suggests organisms in higher trophic levels may also influence microbial communities, but whether warming alters these effects is unclear. Wolf spiders are dominant Arctic predators whose densities are expected to increase with warming. These predators have temperature-dependent effects on decomposition via their consumption of fungal-feeding detritivores, suggesting they may indirectly affect the microbial structure as well. To address this, we used a fully factorial mesocosm experiment to test the effects of wolf spider density and warming on litter microbial structure in Arctic tundra. We deployed replicate litter bags at the surface and belowground in the organic soil profile and analyzed the litter for bacterial and fungal community structure, mass loss, and nutrient characteristics after 2 and 14 months. We found there were significant interactive effects of wolf spider density and warming on fungal but not bacterial communities. Specifically, higher wolf spider densities caused greater fungal diversity under ambient temperature but lower fungal diversity under warming at the soil surface. We also observed interactive treatment effects on fungal composition belowground. Wolf spider density influenced surface bacterial composition, but the effects did not change with warming. These findings suggest a widespread predator can have indirect, cascading effects on litter microbes and that effects on fungi specifically shift under future expected levels of warming. Overall, our study highlights that trophic interactions may play important, albeit overlooked, roles in driving microbial responses to warming in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. IMPORTANCE: The Arctic contains nearly half of the global pool of soil organic carbon and is one of the fastest warming regions on the planet. Accelerated decomposition of soil organic carbon due to warming could cause positive feedbacks to climate change through increased greenhouse gas emissions; thus, changes in ecological dynamics in this region are of global relevance. Microbial structure is an important driver of decomposition and is affected by both abiotic and biotic conditions. Yet how activities of soil-dwelling organisms in higher trophic levels influence microbial structure and function is unclear. In this study, we demonstrate that predicted changes in abundances of a dominant predator and warming interactively affect the structure of litter-dwelling fungal communities in the Arctic. These findings suggest predators may have widespread, indirect cascading effects on microbial communities, which could influence ecosystem responses to future climate change.

Taking the beat of the Arctic: are lemming population cycles changing due to winter climate?

Reports of fading vole and lemming population cycles and persisting low populations in some parts of the Arctic have raised concerns about the spread of these fundamental changes to tundra food web dynamics. By compiling 24 unique time series of lemming population fluctuations across the circumpolar region, we show that virtually all populations displayed alternating periods of cyclic/non-cyclic fluctuations over the past four decades. Cyclic patterns were detected 55% of the time (n = 649 years pooled across sites) with a median periodicity of 3.7 years, and non-cyclic periods were not more frequent in recent years. Overall, there was an indication for a negative effect of warm spells occurring during the snow onset period of the preceding year on lemming abundance. However, winter duration or early winter climatic conditions did not differ on average between cyclic and non-cyclic periods. Analysis of the time series shows that there is presently no Arctic-wide collapse of lemming cycles, even though cycles have been sporadic at most sites during the last decades. Although non-stationary dynamics appears a common feature of lemming populations also in the past, continued warming in early winter may decrease the frequency of periodic irruptions with negative consequences for tundra ecosystems.

Drivers of contemporary and future changes in Arctic seasonal transition dates for a tundra site in coastal Greenland.

Climate change has had a significant impact on the seasonal transition dates of Arctic tundra ecosystems, causing diverse variations between distinct land surface classes. However, the combined effect of multiple controls as well as their individual effects on these dates remains unclear at various scales and across diverse land surface classes. Here we quantified spatiotemporal variations of three seasonal transition dates (start of spring, maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVImax ) day, end of fall) for five dominating land surface classes in the ice-free Greenland. Using a distributed snow model, structural equation modeling, and a random forest model, based on ground observations and remote sensing data, we assessed the indirect and direct effects of climate, snow, and terrain on seasonal transition dates. We then presented new projections of likely changes in seasonal transition dates under six future climate scenarios. The coupled climate, snow cover, and terrain conditions explained up to 61% of seasonal transition dates across different land surface classes. Snow ending day played a crucial role in the start of spring and timing of NDVImax . A warmer June and a decline in wind could advance the NDVImax day. Increased precipitation and temperature during July-August are the most important for delaying the end of fall. We projected that a 1-4.5°C increase in temperature and a 5%-20% increase in precipitation would lengthen the spring-to-fall period for all five land surface classes by 2050, thus the current order of spring-to-fall lengths for the five land surface classes could undergo notable changes. Tall shrubs and fens would have a longer spring-to-fall period under the warmest and wettest scenario, suggesting a competitive advantage for these vegetation communities. This study's results illustrate controls on seasonal transition dates and portend potential changes in vegetation composition in the Arctic under climate change.

Coexistence of two sympatric predators in a transitional ecosystem under constraining environmental conditions: a perspective from space and habitat use.

BACKGROUND: Range expansion of species, a major consequence of climate changes, may alter communities substantially due to competition between expanding and native species. METHODS: We first quantified size differences between an expanding habitat generalist, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), and a circumpolar habitat specialist, the Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus), at the edge of the Arctic, where climate-related changes occur rapidly, to predict the likelihood of the larger competitor escalating interference to intraguild killing. We then used satellite telemetry to evaluate competition in a heterogeneous landscape by examining space use early during the foxes' reproductive period, when resource scarcity, increased-food requirements and spatial constraints likely exacerbate the potential for interference. We used time-LoCoH to quantify space and habitat use, and Minta's index to quantify spatio-temporal interactions between neighbors. RESULTS: Our morphometric comparison involving 236 foxes found that the potential for escalated interference between these species was high due to intermediate size difference. However, our results from 17 collared foxes suggested that expanding and native competitors may coexist when expanding species occur at low densities. Low home-range overlap between neighbors suggested territoriality and substantial exploitation competition for space. No obvious differential use of areas shared by heterospecific neighbors suggested low interference. If anything, intraspecific competition between red foxes may be stronger than interspecific competition. Red and Arctic foxes used habitat differentially, with near-exclusive use of forest patches by red foxes and marine habitats by Arctic foxes. CONCLUSION: Heterogeneous landscapes may relax interspecific competition between expanding and native species, allowing exclusive use of some resources. Furthermore, the scarcity of habitats favored by expanding species may emphasize intraspecific competition between newcomers over interspecific competition, thus creating the potential for self-limitation of expanding populations. Dominant expanding competitors may benefit from interference, but usually lack adaptations to abiotic conditions at their expansion front, favoring rear-edge subordinate species in exploitation competition. However, due to ongoing climate change, systems are usually not at equilibrium. A spread of habitats and resources favorable to expanding species may promote higher densities of antagonistically dominant newcomers, which may lead to extirpation of native species.

Ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon detects old carbon release as a fingerprint of warming and permafrost destabilization with climate change.

The permafrost region has accumulated organic carbon in cold and waterlogged soils over thousands of years and now contains three times as much carbon as the atmosphere. Global warming is degrading permafrost with the potential to accelerate climate change as increased microbial decomposition releases soil carbon as greenhouse gases. A 19-year time series of soil and ecosystem respiration radiocarbon from Alaska provides long-term insight into changing permafrost soil carbon dynamics in a warmer world. Nine per cent of ecosystem respiration and 23% of soil respiration observations had radiocarbon values more than 50‰ lower than the atmospheric value. Furthermore, the overall trend of ecosystem and soil respiration radiocarbon values through time decreased more than atmospheric radiocarbon values did, indicating that old carbon degradation was enhanced. Boosted regression tree analyses showed that temperature and moisture environmental variables had the largest relative influence on lower radiocarbon values. This suggested that old carbon degradation was controlled by warming/permafrost thaw and soil drying together, as waterlogged soil conditions could protect soil carbon from microbial decomposition even when thawed. Overall, changing conditions increasingly favoured the release of old carbon, which is a definitive fingerprint of an accelerating feedback to climate change as a consequence of warming and permafrost destabilization. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Radiocarbon in the Anthropocene'.

The northernmost hyperspectral FLoX sensor dataset for monitoring of high-Arctic tundra vegetation phenology and Sun-Induced Fluorescence (SIF).

A hyperspectral field sensor (FloX) was installed in Adventdalen (Svalbard, Norway) in 2019 as part of the Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System (SIOS) for monitoring vegetation phenology and Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) of high-Arctic tundra. This northernmost hyperspectral sensor is located within the footprint of a tower for long-term eddy covariance flux measurements and is an integral part of an automatic environmental monitoring system on Svalbard (AsMovEn), which is also a part of SIOS. One of the measurements that this hyperspectral instrument can capture is SIF, which serves as a proxy of gross primary production (GPP) and carbon flux rates. This paper presents an overview of the data collection and processing, and the 4-year (2019-2021) datasets in processed format are available at: https://thredds.met.no/thredds/catalog/arcticdata/infranor/NINA-FLOX/raw/catalog.html associated with https://doi.org/10.21343/ZDM7-JD72 under a CC-BY-4.0 license. Results obtained from the first three years in operation showed interannual variation in SIF and other spectral vegetation indices including MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (MTCI), EVI and NDVI. Synergistic uses of the measurements from this northernmost hyperspectral FLoX sensor, in conjunction with other monitoring systems, will advance our understanding of how tundra vegetation responds to changing climate and the resulting implications on carbon and energy balance.

Diverging trends and drivers of Arctic flower production in Greenland over space and time.

The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate. While changes in plant community composition and phenology have been extensively reported, the effects of climate change on reproduction remain poorly understood. We quantified multidecadal changes in flower density for nine tundra plant species at a low- and a high-Arctic site in Greenland. We found substantial changes in flower density over time, but the temporal trends and drivers of flower density differed both between species and sites. Total flower density increased over time at the low-Arctic site, whereas the high-Arctic site showed no directional change. Within and between sites, the direction and rate of change differed among species, with varying effects of summer temperature, the temperature of the previous autumn and the timing of snowmelt. Finally, all species showed a strong trade-off in flower densities between successive years, suggesting an effective cost of reproduction. Overall, our results reveal region- and taxon-specific variation in the sensitivity and responses of co-occurring species to shared climatic drivers, and a clear cost of reproductive investment among Arctic plants. The ultimate effects of further changes in climate may thus be decoupled between species and across space, with critical knock-on effects on plant species dynamics, food web structure and overall ecosystem functioning. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00300-023-03164-2.

Predator-mediated interactions through changes in predator home range size can lead to local prey exclusion.

The strength of indirect biotic interactions is difficult to quantify in the wild and can alter community composition. To investigate whether the presence of a prey species affects the population growth rate of another prey species, we quantified predator-mediated interaction strength using a multi-prey mechanistic model of predation and a population matrix model. Models were parametrized using behavioural, demographic and experimental data from a vertebrate community that includes the arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), a predator feeding on lemmings and eggs of various species such as sandpipers and geese. We show that the positive effects of the goose colony on sandpiper nesting success (due to reduction of search time for sandpiper nests) were outweighed by the negative effect of an increase in fox density. The fox numerical response was driven by changes in home range size. As a result, the net interaction from the presence of geese was negative and could lead to local exclusion of sandpipers. Our study provides a rare empirically based model that integrates mechanistic multi-species functional responses and behavioural processes underlying the predator numerical response. This is an important step forward in our ability to quantify the consequences of predation for community structure and dynamics.

Arctic rooting depth distribution influences modelled carbon emissions but cannot be inferred from aboveground vegetation type.

The distribution of roots throughout the soil drives depth-dependent plant-soil interactions and ecosystem processes, particularly in arctic tundra where plant biomass, is predominantly belowground. Vegetation is usually classified from aboveground, but it is unclear whether such classifications are suitable to estimate belowground attributes and their consequences, such as rooting depth distribution and its influence on carbon cycling. We performed a meta-analysis of 55 published arctic rooting depth profiles, testing for differences both between distributions based on aboveground vegetation types (Graminoid, Wetland, Erect-shrub, and Prostrate-shrub tundra) and between 'Root Profile Types' for which we defined three representative and contrasting clusters. We further analyzed potential impacts of these different rooting depth distributions on rhizosphere priming-induced carbon losses from tundra soils. Rooting depth distribution hardly differed between aboveground vegetation types but varied between Root Profile Types. Accordingly, modelled priming-induced carbon emissions were similar between aboveground vegetation types when they were applied to the entire tundra, but ranged from 7.2 to 17.6 Pg C cumulative emissions until 2100 between individual Root Profile Types. Variations in rooting depth distribution are important for the circumpolar tundra carbon-climate feedback but can currently not be inferred adequately from aboveground vegetation type classifications.

Distinct Growth Responses of Tundra Soil Bacteria to Short-Term and Long-Term Warming.

Increases in Arctic temperatures have thawed permafrost and accelerated tundra soil microbial activity, releasing greenhouse gases that amplify climate warming. Warming over time has also accelerated shrub encroachment in the tundra, altering plant input abundance and quality, and causing further changes to soil microbial processes. To better understand the effects of increased temperature and the accumulated effects of climate change on soil bacterial activity, we quantified the growth responses of individual bacterial taxa to short-term warming (3 months) and long-term warming (29 years) in moist acidic tussock tundra. Intact soil was assayed in the field for 30 days using 18O-labeled water, from which taxon-specific rates of 18O incorporation into DNA were estimated as a proxy for growth. Experimental treatments warmed the soil by approximately 1.5°C. Short-term warming increased average relative growth rates across the assemblage by 36%, and this increase was attributable to emergent growing taxa not detected in other treatments that doubled the diversity of growing bacteria. However, long-term warming increased average relative growth rates by 151%, and this was largely attributable to taxa that co-occurred in the ambient temperature controls. There was also coherence in relative growth rates within broad taxonomic levels with orders tending to have similar growth rates in all treatments. Growth responses tended to be neutral in short-term warming and positive in long-term warming for most taxa and phylogenetic groups co-occurring across treatments regardless of phylogeny. Taken together, growing bacteria responded distinctly to short-term and long-term warming, and taxa growing in each treatment exhibited deep phylogenetic organization. IMPORTANCE Soil carbon stocks in the tundra and underlying permafrost have become increasingly vulnerable to microbial decomposition due to climate change. The microbial responses to Arctic warming must be understood in order to predict the effects of future microbial activity on carbon balance in a warming Arctic. In response to our warming treatments, tundra soil bacteria grew faster, consistent with increased rates of decomposition and carbon flux to the atmosphere. Our findings suggest that bacterial growth rates may continue to increase in the coming decades as faster growth is driven by the accumulated effects of long-term warming. Observed phylogenetic organization of bacterial growth rates may also permit taxonomy-based predictions of bacterial responses to climate change and inclusion into ecosystem models.

Responses of soil micro-eukaryotic communities to decadal drainage in a Siberian wet tussock tundra.

Climate warming holds the potential to cause extensive drying of wetlands in the Arctic, but the warming-drying effects on belowground ecosystems, particularly micro-eukaryotes, remain poorly understood. We investigated the responses of soil micro-eukaryotic communities, including fungi, protists, and microbial metazoa, to decadal drainage manipulation in a Siberian wet tundra using both amplicon and shotgun metagenomic sequencing. Our results indicate that drainage treatment increased the abundance of both fungal and non-fungal micro-eukaryotic communities, with key groups such as Ascomycota (mostly order Helotiales), Nematoda, and Tardigrada being notably abundant in drained sites. Functional traits analysis showed an increase in litter saprotrophic fungi and protistan consumers, indicating their increased activities in drained sites. The effects of drainage were more pronounced in the surface soil layer than the deeper layer, as soils dry and warm from the surface. Marked compositional shifts were observed for both communities, with fungal communities being more strongly influenced by drainage-induced vegetation change than the lowered water table itself, while the vegetation effect on non-fungal micro-eukaryotes was moderate. These findings provide insights into how belowground micro-eukaryotic communities respond to the widespread drying of wetlands in the Arctic and improve our predictive understanding of future ecosystem changes.

Microbial metabolic responses and CO2 emissions differentiated by soil water content variation in subarctic tundra soils.

Recent rapid air temperature increases across the northern-latitude tundra have prolonged permafrost thawing and snow melting periods, resulting in increased soil temperature (Ts) and volumetric soil water content (SWC). Under prolonged soil warming at 8°C, Alaskan tundra soils were incubated in a microcosm system and examined for the SWC differential influence on the microbial decomposition activity of large molecular weight (MW) humic substances (HS). When one microcosm soil (AKC1-1) was incubated at a constant SWC of 41% for 90 days (T = 90) and then SWC was gradually decreased from 41% to 29% for another T = 90, the initial HS was partly depolymerized. In contrast, in AKC1-2 incubated at a gradually decreasing SWC from the initial 32% to 10% for T = 90 and then increasing to 27% for another T = 90, HS depolymerization was undetected. Overall, the microbial communities in AKC1-1 could maintain metabolic activity at sufficient and constant SWC during the initial T = 90 incubation. In contrast, AKC1-2 microbes may have been damaged by drought stress during the drying SWC regimen, possibly resulting in the loss of HS decomposition activity, which did not recover even after re-wetting to an optimal SWC range (20-40%). After T = 90, the CO2 production in both treatments was attributed to the increased decomposition of small-MW organic compounds (including aerobic HS-degradative products) within an optimal SWC range. We expect this study to provide new insights into the early effects of warming- and topography-induced SWC variations on the microbial contribution to CO2 emissions via HS decomposition in northern-latitude tundra soil.

Cross-scale regulation of seasonal microclimate by vegetation and snow in the Arctic tundra.

Climate warming is inducing widespread vegetation changes in Arctic tundra ecosystems, with the potential to alter carbon and nutrient dynamics between vegetation and soils. Yet, we lack a detailed understanding of how variation in vegetation and topography influences fine-scale temperatures ("microclimate") that mediate these dynamics, and at what resolution vegetation needs to be sampled to capture these effects. We monitored microclimate at 90 plots across a tundra landscape in western Greenland. Our stratified random study design covered gradients of topography and vegetation, while nested plots (0.8-100 m2 ) enabled comparison across different sampling resolutions. We used Bayesian mixed-effect models to quantify the direct influence of plot-level topography, moisture and vegetation on soil, near-surface and canopy-level temperatures (-6, 2, and 15 cm). During the growing season, colder soils were predicted by shrub cover (-0.24°C per 10% increase), bryophyte cover (-0.35°C per 10% increase), and vegetation height (-0.17°C per 1 cm increase). The same three factors also predicted the magnitude of differences between soil and above-ground temperatures, indicating warmer soils at low cover/height, but colder soils under closed/taller canopies. These findings were consistent across plot sizes, suggesting that spatial predictions of microclimate may be possible at the operational scales of satellite products. During winter, snow cover (+0.75°C per 10 snow-covered days) was the key predictor of soil microclimate. Topography and moisture explained little variation in the measured temperatures. Our results not only underline the close connection of vegetation and snow with microclimate in the Arctic tundra but also point to the need for more studies disentangling their complex interplay across tundra environments and seasons. Future shifts in vegetation cover and height will likely mediate the impact of atmospheric warming on the tundra soil environment, with potential implications for below-ground organisms and ecosystem functioning.

Isotopic niche partitioning and individual specialization in an Arctic raptor guild.

Intra- and inter-specific resource partitioning within predator communities is a fundamental component of trophic ecology, and one proposed mechanism for how populations partition resources is through individual niche variation. The Niche Variation Hypothesis (NVH) predicts that inter-individual trait variation leads to functional trade-offs in foraging efficiency, resulting in populations composed of individual dietary specialists. The degree to which niche specialization persists within a population is plastic and responsive to fluctuating resource availability. We quantified niche overlap and tested the NVH within an Arctic raptor guild, focusing on three species that employ different foraging strategies: golden eagles (generalists); gyrfalcons (facultative specialists); and rough-legged hawks (specialists). Tundra ecosystems exhibit cyclic populations of arvicoline rodents (lemmings and voles), providing a unique system in which to examine predator diet in response to interannual fluctuations in resource availability. Using blood δ13C and δ15N values from 189 raptor nestlings on Alaska's Seward Peninsula (2014-2019), we calculated isotopic niche width and used Bayesian stable isotope mixing models (BSIMMs) to characterize individual specialization and test the NVH. Nest-level specialization estimated from stable isotopes was strongly correlated with indices of specialization based on camera trap data. We observed a high degree of isotopic niche overlap between the three species and gyrfalcons displayed a positive relationship between individual specialization and population niche width on an interannual basis consistent with the NVH. Our findings suggest plasticity in niche specialization may reduce intra- and inter-specific resource competition under dynamic ecological conditions.

Responses of root phenology in ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum to transplantation and warming in the Arctic.

The effect of climate change on phenology and growth is less understood for belowground plant tissues than for aboveground plant tissues, particularly in high-latitude regions. Ecotypes within a species adapted to a locality may display different responses to climate change. We established two common garden plots in the Arctic tundra north of the Brooks Range in northern Alaska. Three ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum along a latitudinal gradient were transplanted into common gardens, and half of the transplants were warmed using open-top chambers (OTCs). Minirhizotrons were used to track the root phenology during the growing seasons of 2016 and 2017. Warming with OTCs (approximately +1 °C in air) did not affect the root biomass, root production or root phenology. The southern ecotype (from 67°16'N) of Eriophorum vaginatum transplanted northward experienced delayed startup and root production compared to two northern ecotypes (from 68°38'N and 69°25'N), although significant differences were not observed in the three ecotypes in terms of root production, root biomass and growth duration at the two sites. Our results suggest that as the climate warms, ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum may be able to adjust their duration of root growth and root productivity by phenotypic plasticity, although the degree of plasticity controlling the root startup time may vary between southern and northern ecotypes.

Soil propagule banks of ectomycorrhizal fungi associated with Larix cajanderi above the treeline in the Siberian Arctic.

Microbial symbionts are essential for plant niche expansion into novel habitats. Dormant propagules of ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi are thought to play an important role in seedling establishment in invasion fronts; however, propagule bank communities above the treeline are poorly understood in the Eurasian Arctic, where treelines are expected to advance under rapid climate change. To investigate the availability of EM fungal propagules, we collected 100 soil samples from Arctic tundra sites and applied bioassay experiments using Larix cajanderi as bait seedlings. We detected 11 EM fungal operational taxonomic units (OTUs) by obtaining entire ITS regions. Suillus clintonianus was the most frequently observed OTU, followed by Cenococcum geophilum and Sebacinales OTU1. Three Suillus and one Rhizopogon species were detected in the bioassay seedlings, indicating the availability of Larix-specific suilloid spores at least 30 km from the contemporary treeline. Spores of S. clintonianus and S. spectabilis remained infective after preservation for 14 mo and heat treatment at 60 °C, implying the durability of the spores. Long-distance dispersal capability and spore resistance to adverse conditions may represent ecological strategies employed by suilloid fungi to quickly associate with emerging seedlings of compatible hosts in treeless habitats.

Model responses to CO2 and warming are underestimated without explicit representation of Arctic small-mammal grazing.

We use a simple model of coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems to examine how "explicitly representing grazers" vs. "having grazer effects implicitly aggregated in with other biogeochemical processes in the model" alters predicted responses to elevated carbon dioxide and warming. The aggregated approach can affect model predictions because grazer-mediated processes can respond differently to changes in climate compared with the processes with which they are typically aggregated. We use small-mammal grazers in a tundra as an example and find that the typical three-to-four-year cycling frequency is too fast for the effects of cycle peaks and troughs to be fully manifested in the ecosystem biogeochemistry. We conclude that implicitly aggregating the effects of small-mammal grazers with other processes results in an underestimation of ecosystem response to climate change, relative to estimations in which the grazer effects are explicitly represented. The magnitude of this underestimation increases with grazer density. We therefore recommend that grazing effects be incorporated explicitly when applying models of ecosystem response to global change.

Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities.

As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiagvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.