Contradictory mortality results in early 2-dose measles vaccine trials: Interactions with oral polio vaccine may explain differences.

OBJECTIVES: Between 2003-2019, three trials (RCTs) in Guinea-Bissau randomised infants to an early 2-dose measles vaccine (MV) schedule at 4 and 9 months vs. standard MV at 9 months. The RCTs produced contradictory mortality results; the effect being beneficial in the 2-dose group in the first but tending to have higher mortality in the last two RCTs. We hypothesised that increased frequency of campaigns with oral polio vaccine (C-OPV) explained the pattern. METHODS: We performed per-protocol analysis of individual-level survival data from the three RCTs in Cox proportional hazards models yielding hazards ratios (HR) for the 2-dose vs. the 1-dose MV group. We examined whether timing of C-OPVs, and early administration of OPV0 (birth to day 14) affected the HRs for 2-dose/1-dose MV. RESULTS: The combined HR(2-dose/1-dose) was 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.00) for children receiving no C-OPV-before-enrolment, but 1.39 (0.97-1.99) for those receiving C-OPV-before-enrolment (homogeneity, p=0.01). C-OPV-before-enrolment had a beneficial effect in the 1-dose group, but tended to have a negative effect in the 2-dose group especially in females. These effects were amplified further by early administration of OPV0. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of C-OPVs, an early 2-dose MV strategy had beneficial effects on mortality, but frequent C-OPVs may have benefitted the 1-dose group more than the 2-dose MV group, leading to varying results depending on the intensity of C-OPVs.

Adaptive Gaussian Markov random fields for child mortality estimation.

The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), a critical health indicator, is typically estimated from household surveys in lower and middle income countries. Spatio-temporal disaggregation of household survey data can lead to highly variable estimates of U5MR, necessitating the usage of smoothing models which borrow information across space and time. The assumptions of common smoothing models may be unrealistic when certain time periods or regions are expected to have shocks in mortality relative to their neighbors, which can lead to oversmoothing of U5MR estimates. In this paper, we develop a spatial and temporal smoothing approach based on Gaussian Markov random field models which incorporate knowledge of these expected shocks in mortality. We demonstrate the potential for these models to improve upon alternatives not incorporating knowledge of expected shocks in a simulation study. We apply these models to estimate U5MR in Rwanda at the national level from 1985 to 2019, a time period which includes the Rwandan civil war and genocide.

Effects of extreme climate events and child mortality on total fertility rate in Bangladesh.

Floods, storms, and temperature extremes are examples of extreme weather events that have a substantial influence on a country's demographic dynamics, including migration, fertility, and mortality. Changes in population size, composition, and distribution may result from these occurrences. This study, which spans the years 1966-2018, looks at how Bangladesh's total fertility rate (TFR) is affected by extreme weather events and child mortality, including neonatal, infant, male infant, and under-five mortality. We use data from secondary publicly accessible sources, such as the World Bank and The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), and we investigate the correlations using the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), complemented by bivariate and multivariable analyses. Our findings from the univariate analysis are noteworthy. Total extreme climate events (ß = -0.345, 95 % CI: 0.510, -0.180), as well as individual extreme climate events, such as extreme temperatures (ß = -1.176, 95 % CI: 1.88, -0.47), floods (ß = -0.644, 95 % CI: 1.0729, -0.216), and storms (ß = -0.351, 95 % CI: 0.63159, -0.07154), exhibited negative associations with the TFR. Additionally, factors such as contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) (ß = -0.085, 95 % CI: 0.09072, -0.07954) and gross national income (GNI) per capita (ß = -0.003, 95 % CI: 0.0041123, -0.0024234) were negatively correlated with the TFR. Conversely, various categories of child mortality, namely, infants (ß = 0.041, 95 % CI: 0.040474, 0.042748), males (ß = 0.038, 95 % CI:0.037719, 0.039891), and under-five (ß = 0.026, 95 % CI:0.025684, 0.026979) - are positively associated with TFR. Controlling for two pivotal confounding factors, time and GNI per capita, yielded consistent results in the multivariate analysis. These findings provide insight on the dual impact of extreme weather events, which can reduce TFR while also raising it through infant mortality. This phenomena may be due to the increased vulnerability of younger children in climate-event-prone areas, prompting parents to seek additional children as both a replacement for lost offspring and an insurance mechanism against future child loss.

Geospatial correlations and variations in child mortality and stunting in South Africa: Evaluating distal vs structural determinants.

South Africa has one of the highest child mortality and stunting rates in the world. Flexible geoadditive models were used to investigate the geospatial variations in child mortality and stunting in South Africa. We used consecutive rounds of national surveys (2008-2017). The child mortality declined from 31 % to 24 % over time. Lack of medical insurance, black ethnicity, low-socioeconomic conditions, and poor housing conditions were identified as the most significant correlates of child mortality. The model predicted degrees of freedom which was estimated as 19.55 (p < 0.001), provided compelling evidence for sub-geographical level variations in child mortality which ranged from 6 % to 35 % across the country. Population level impact of the distal characteristics on child mortality and stunting exceeded that of other risk factors. Geospatial analysis can help in monitoring trends in child mortality over time and in evaluating the impact of health interventions.

Measuring spatial inequalities in maternal and child mortalities in Pakistan: evidence from geographically weighted regression.

BACKGROUND: In developing countries, the death probability of a child and mother is more significant than in developed countries; these inequalities in health outcomes are unfair. The present study encompasses a spatial analysis of maternal and child mortalities in Pakistan. The study aims to estimate the District Mortality Index (DMI), measure the inequality ratio and slope, and ascertain the spatial impact of numerous factors on DMI scores across Pakistani districts. METHOD: This study used micro-level household datasets from multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS) to estimate the DMI. To find out how different the DMI scores were, the inequality ratio and slope were used. This study further utilized spatial autocorrelation tests to determine the magnitude and location of the spatial dependence of the clusters with high and low mortality rates. The Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was also applied to examine the spatial impact of socioeconomic, environmental, health, and housing attributes on DMI. RESULTS: The inequality ratio for DMI showed that the upper decile districts are 16 times more prone to mortalities than districts in the lower decile, and the districts of Baluchistan depicted extreme spatial heterogeneity in terms of DMI. The findings of the Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) and Moran's test confirmed spatial homogeneity in all mortalities among the districts in Pakistan. The H-H clusters of maternal mortality and DMI were in Baluchistan, and the H-H clusters of child mortality were seen in Punjab. The results of GWR showed that the wealth index quintile has a significant spatial impact on DMI; however, improved sanitation, handwashing practices, and antenatal care adversely influenced DMI scores. CONCLUSION: The findings reveal a significant disparity in DMI and spatial relationships among all mortalities in Pakistan's districts. Additionally, socioeconomic, environmental, health, and housing variables have an impact on DMI. Notably, spatial proximity among individuals who are at risk of death occurs in areas with elevated mortality rates. Policymakers may mitigate these mortalities by focusing on vulnerable zones and implementing measures such as raising public awareness, enhancing healthcare services, and improving access to clean drinking water and sanitation facilities.

Beyond the biological prime: Deciphering the link between child survival and maternal age in India.

This paper investigates the impact of maternal age at birth on child mortality in India, the world's most populous country burdened with significant neonatal and infant mortality. Utilizing data from the latest National Family Health Surveys, covering around 1 million children, our analysis incorporates models with household and biological-mother fixed-effects to address unobserved heterogeneity. Outcomes include neonatal mortality (<28 days), infant mortality (<12 months), and under-5 mortality. Findings reveal a U-shaped relationship between maternal age and child mortality, with the highest risk for mothers below 17 and above 40 years old. Robustness checks confirm the enduring significance of maternal age even after adjusting for socioeconomic factors and time-variant unobservables. Moreover, models with biological-mother fixed-effects suggest higher risks compared to models that only control for observables, indicating that regressions without controls for time-invariant heterogeneity may underestimate the risks of maternal age at birth.

Infant and child mortality in Afghanistan: A scoping review.

Background and Aims: Since 1990, global child and infant mortality rates have typically stabilized or decreased due to improved healthcare, vaccination rollouts, and international funding. However, Afghanistan continues to face the highest child and infant mortality rates globally, with 43 deaths per 1000 live births. This study aims to examine the factors contributing to this high mortality rate and propose interventions to address the issue. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was conducted using databases such as Google Scholar and PubMed, focusing on articles published in English within the last 10 years (2013-2023). The search terms included "Child mortality," "Infant mortality," "SIDS," "COVID-19," and "Afghanistan." Original studies, systematic reviews, case studies, and reports meeting the inclusion criteria were selected for analysis. Additional sources from organizations such as UNICEF, the World Bank Group, WHO, and EMRO were also reviewed. Results: The study findings reveal significant challenges contributing to Afghanistan's high infant and child mortality rates. These challenges include birth defects, preterm birth, malnutrition, sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), traumatic injuries, fatal infections, infanticide, and abuse. The ongoing conflict, insecurity, and humanitarian crises further exacerbate the situation, leading to increased child casualties. Despite efforts by international agencies like UNICEF to provide vaccines and maternal education, the infant mortality rate remains high. Conclusion: In conclusion, Afghanistan's child and infant mortality rates are of significant concern, and it is imperative that action be taken to reduce the incidence of child and infant mortality rates.

Utilization of integrated community-based case management of childhood illness and associated factors in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite significant progress being made in reducing under-five mortality, three-fourths of under-five deaths are still caused by preventable conditions such as pneumonia, diarrhea, malaria, and newborn issues. Integrated community case management of childhood illnesses (ICCM) could serve as a means to reduce preventable child mortality in Low- and Middle-Income countries. Our aim was to assess the overall level of ICCM utilization and its associated factors in Ethiopia. METHODS: Candidate studies for inclusion in this review were identified through searches across various databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Google Scholar, and university repositories online databases, spanning from February 1, 2024, to March 18, 2024. The quality assessment of the studies included in this systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale (NOS). Data extraction and analysis were carried out using Microsoft Excel and Stata 17 software, respectively. Heterogeneity among the studies was assessed using Cochran's Q test and I2 statistics, while the presence of publication bias was evaluated through funnel plots and Egger's regression asymmetry test. Subgroup analysis was performed based on sample size and study site. RESULTS: In this study, the pooled level of ICCM utilization was found to be 42.73 (95%, CI 27.65%, 57.80%) based on the evidence obtained from ten primary studies. In this review, parents' awareness about illness (OR = 2.77, 95%, CI 2.06, 3.74), awareness about ICCM service (OR = 3.64, 95%, CI 2.16, 6.14), perceived severity of the disease (OR = 3.14, 95%, CI 2.33, 4.23), secondary/above level of education (OR = 2.57, 95%, CI 1.39, 4.77), and live within 30 min distance to the health post (OR = 3.93, 95%, CI 2.30, 6.74) were variables significantly associated with utilization of ICCM in Ethiopia. CONCLUSION: The utilization of ICCM was found to be low in Ethiopia. Factors such as parents' awareness about the illness, knowledge of ICCM services, perceived severity of the disease, attending a secondary or more level of education, and living within 30 min distance to the health post were significantly associated with the utilization of ICCM. Therefore, it is crucial to focus on creating awareness and improving access to high-quality ICCM services to reduce child morbidity and mortality from preventable causes.

Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) in predicting prognosis of critical pediatric trauma patients: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to compare the predictive value of Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) to Pediatric Risk of Mortality-3 (PRISM-3), Pediatric Trauma Score (PTS), and Pediatric Glasgow Coma Score (pGCS) in determining clinical severity and mortality among critical pediatric trauma patients. METHOD: A total of 122 patients monitored due to trauma in the pediatric intensive care unit between 2020 and 2023 were included in the study. Physical examination findings, vital parameters, laboratory values, and all scoring calculations for patients during emergency room admissions and on the first day of intensive care follow-up were recorded. Comparisons were made between two groups identified as survivors and non-survivors. RESULTS: The study included 85 (69.7%) male and 37 (30.3%) female patients, with an average age of 75 ± 59 months for all patients. Forty-one patients (33.6%) required Invasive Mechanical Ventilation (IMV) and 11 patients (9%) required inotropic therapy. Logistic regression analysis revealed a significant association between mortality and PEWS (p < 0.001), PRISM-3 (p < 0.001), PTS (p < 0.001), and pGCS (p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis demonstrated that the PEWS score (cutoff > 6.5, AUC = 0.953, 95% CI 0.912-0.994) was highly predictive of mortality, showing similar performance to the PRISM-3 score (cutoff > 21, AUC = 0.999, 95% CI 0.995-1). Additionally, the PEWS score was found to be highly predictive in forecasting the need for IMV and inotropic therapy. CONCLUSION: The Pediatric Early Warning Score serves as a robust determinant of mortality in critical pediatric trauma patients. Simultaneously, it demonstrates strong predictability in anticipating the need for IMV and inotropic therapy.

Determinants of Neonatal and Postneonatal Mortality in Northeastern Brazil: A Cohort Study of Newborns Admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit.

Despite advances in neonatology, neonatal mortality from preventable causes remains high in the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. This study aimed to analyze the determinants associated with neonatal and postneonatal mortality in newborns admitted to a neonatal intensive care unit. A cohort study was carried out in a capital in the Brazilian Northeast from 2013 to 2018. The outcome studied was death. Poisson regression was performed in the multivariate analysis of variables. Four hundred and eighty newborns were eligible, and 8.1% (39 newborns) died. Among them, 34 died in the neonatal period. The determinants that remained significantly associated with neonatal and postneonatal mortality in the final adjustment model (p < 0.05) were history of abortion, perinatal asphyxia, early neonatal sepsis and umbilical venous catheterization. All causes of this outcome were preventable. The neonatal mortality rate, although it did not include twins, neonates with malformations incompatible with life and other conditions, was 3.47 deaths per thousand live births (95% CI:1.10-8.03‱), well below the national average. In this study, pregnant women from different social classes had in common a private plan for direct access to health services, which provided them with excellent care throughout pregnancy and postnatal care. These results indicate that reducing neonatal mortality is possible through public policies with strategies that promote improvements in access to health services.

The cost of inaction on preconception health in Nigeria: An economic impact analysis.

A growing body of evidence has shown the effects of poor preconception health on adverse pregnancy outcomes and, subsequently, maternal and child morbidity and mortality. However, the cost of poor preconception health remains relatively unexplored. Using the case of Nigeria, this study provides the first estimate of the disease and economic burden of poor preconception health at a country level. Using data from international databases and the scientific literature, the study used a cost-of-illness approach to quantify the foregone productivity and direct healthcare costs resulting from six preconception risk factors (adolescent pregnancy, short birth interval, overweight and obesity, intimate partner violence, female genital mutilation, folate deficiency). The results indicate that 6.7% of maternal deaths, 10.9% of perinatal deaths, and 10.5% of late neonatal deaths were attributable to the selected preconception risk factors in 2020. The economic burden of poor preconception health in Nigeria was estimated at US$ 3.3 billion in 2020, of which over 90% was generated by premature mortality. If prevalence rates remain constant, total economic losses could amount to US$ 46.2 billion by 2035. This analysis paves the way for further studies investigating the economic costs and benefits of preconception interventions and policies in low and middle-income countries.

Assessing the Link between Maternal Transport Modes and Childhood Mortality in Nigeria.

OBJECTIVES: The study explored the association between maternal transport modes and childhood mortalities in Nigeria. METHOD: Utilizing data and definitions from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey report, the ten-year early mortality rates of the five childhood mortalities and the percentage of live births in the 5 years before the survey, transported by eight identified means of transportation, were statistically correlated for each of Nigeria's 36 states and the federal capital territory (FCT) in the R environment at a significance level of α < 0.05. RESULTS: In the spatial distribution of the five childhood mortalities, a notable north-south dichotomy was observed, contrasting with the spatial spread of maternal transport modes. The five childhood mortalities exhibited a significant, moderately positive correlation with transportation by Private Car or Truck, while their associations with Public Transport or Bus and Walking were notably moderate but negative. CONCLUSION FOR PRACTICE: While the use of private cars or trucks should be encouraged as a means of maternal transport, public transport should be better organized to provide efficient services to women who need such services for maternal and child healthcare. Additionally, steps should be taken to reduce travel distances to health facilities to manageable distances for mothers.

Modeled impacts of bouillon fortification with micronutrients on child mortality in Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria.

Micronutrient interventions can reduce child mortality. By applying Micronutrient Intervention Modeling methods in Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria, we estimated the impacts of bouillon fortification on apparent dietary adequacy of vitamin A and zinc among children and folate among women. We then used the Lives Saved Tool to predict the impacts of bouillon fortification with ranges of vitamin A, zinc, and folic acid concentrations on lives saved among children 6-59 months of age. Fortification at 250 µg vitamin A/g and 120 µg folic acid/g was predicted to substantially reduce vitamin A- and folate-attributable deaths: 65% for vitamin A and 92% for folate (Senegal), 36% for vitamin A and 74% for folate (Burkina Faso), and >95% for both (Nigeria). Zinc fortification at 5 mg/g would avert 48% (Senegal), 31% (Burkina Faso), and 63% (Nigeria) of zinc-attributable deaths. The addition of all three nutrients at 30% of Codex nutrient reference values in 2.5 g bouillon was predicted to save an annual average of 293 child lives in Senegal (3.5% of deaths from all causes among children 6-59 months of age), 933 (2.1%) in Burkina Faso, and 18,362 (3.7%) in Nigeria. These results, along with evidence on program feasibility and costs, can help inform fortification program design discussions.

Innovative strategies for the surveillance, prevention, and management of pediatric infections applied to low-income settings.

INTRODUCTION: Infectious diseases still cause a significant burden of morbidity and mortality among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). There are ample opportunities for innovation in surveillance, prevention, and management, with the ultimate goal of improving survival. AREAS COVERED: This review discusses the current status in the use and development of innovative strategies for pediatric infectious diseases in LMICs by focusing on surveillance, diagnosis, prevention, and management. Topics covered are: Minimally Invasive Tissue Sampling as a technique to accurately ascertain the cause of death; Genetic Surveillance to trace the pathogen genomic diversity and emergence of resistance; Artificial Intelligence as a multidisciplinary tool; Portable noninvasive imaging methods; and Prognostic Biomarkers to triage and risk stratify pediatric patients. EXPERT OPINION: To overcome the specific hurdles in child health for LMICs, some innovative strategies appear at the forefront of research. If the development of these next-generation tools remains focused on accessibility, sustainability and capacity building, reshaping epidemiological surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment in LMICs, can become a reality and result in a significant public health impact. Their integration with existing healthcare infrastructures may revolutionize disease detection and surveillance, and improve child health and survival.

Action against birth defects: if not now, when?

BACKGROUND: More children are surviving through interventions to address the infectious causes of under-5 mortality; subsequently, the proportion of deaths caused by birth defects is increasing. Prevention, diagnosis, treatment and care interventions for birth defects are available but are needed where the burden is highest, low-and-middle-income countries. OBJECTIVES: A selection of birth defect focused publications, conferences, and World Health Assembly resolutions from 2000 to 2017 show that global efforts were made to raise the profile of birth defects in global public health. However, recent donor support and national government interest has waned. Without concerted global action to improve primary prevention and care for children born with birth defects, the Sustainable Development Goal targets for child survival will not be met. RESULTS: Birth defects make up 8% and 10% of global under-5 and neonatal deaths respectively, making them significant contributors to preventable loss of life for children. Survivors face long-term morbidity and lifelong disability which compounds the health and economic woes of individuals, families, communities and society as a whole. Demographic changes in sub-Saharan Africa portend a growing number of births with 1.6 billion projected from 2021 to 2050. More births and better survival without effective prevention and treatment for birth defects translates into more mortality and disability from birth defects. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend interventions for prevention of birth defects. These are evidenced-based and affordable, but require low- and middle-income countries to strengthened their health systems. Action against birth defects now will prevent premature deaths and long-term disability, and lead to stronger, more resilient health systems.

Estimating 1a0 and 4a1 in a Life Table: A Model Approach Based on Newly Collected Data.

The average age of infant deaths, a10, and the average number of years lived-in the age interval-by those dying between ages 1 and 5, a41, are important quantities allowing the construction of any life table including these ages. In many applications, the direct calculation of these parameters is not possible, so they are estimated using the infant mortality rate-or the death rate from 0 to 1-as a predictor. Existing methods are general approximations that do not consider the full variability in the age patterns of mortality below the age of 5. However, at the same level of mortality, under-five deaths can be more or less concentrated during the first weeks and months of life, thus resulting in very different values of a10 and a41. This article proposes an indirect estimation of these parameters by using a recently developed model of under-five mortality and taking advantage of a new, comprehensive database by detailed age-which is used for validation. The model adapts to a variety of inputs (e.g., rates, probabilities, or the proportion of deaths by sex or for both sexes combined), providing more flexibility for the users and increasing the precision of the estimates. This fresh perspective consolidates a new method that outperforms all previous approaches.

Determinants of Neonatal, Infant and Child Mortalities in Iran: A Systematic Review.

Background: Children mortality is considered as one of the main indicators of population development and health, while most of the children's deaths are preventable. This study systematically reviewed the determinants of children mortality in Iran. Methods: This systematic review was conducted to summarize all the factors associated with children mortality in three age groups; Neonate (0-28 d), Infant (28 d-1 yr old) and children (<5 yr old), based on the PRISMA guideline. Many of the electronic international and national databases, in addition to hand searching of reference of selected articles, grey literature, formal and informal reports and government documents were screened to identify potential records up to Jan 2022. We included all studies that identified determinants of child mortality in any province of Iran or the whole country, without any restriction. Results: Overall, 32 studies were included, published between 2000 and 2022, of which 23 were cross-sectional and 15 published in Farsi language. The associations between several risk factors (n=69) and the child mortality were examined. Among the identified factors, 'birth weight', 'mother's literacy', 'socioeconomic status', 'delivery type', 'gestational age', 'pregnancy interval', 'immaturity', 'type of nutrition', and 'stillbirth' were the most important mentioned determinants of child mortality in Iran. Conclusion: Appropriate interventions and policies should be developed and implemented in Iran, addressing the main identified associated factors, resulting from this review study, with the aim of minimizing preventable child deaths, based on their age categories.

Infant mortality in Ghana: investing in health care infrastructure and systems.

Child and infant mortality is a global problem. Almost half of deaths of children under age 5 years occur in the neonatal period, the first 28 days of life, with 2.4 million neonatal deaths globally in 2020. Sub-Saharan Africa has disproportionately high numbers of neonatal deaths. Ghana's neonatal mortality rate is 22.8 per 1000 live births and remains behind targets set by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Quality antenatal care, postnatal monitoring, breastfeeding support, and postnatal family planning are important in preventing neonatal deaths. While Ghana has made progress in making care more financially accessible, it has not been matched with the improvements in the critical infrastructure required to ensure quality health care. The improvements have also not eliminated out-of-pocket costs for care, which have hindered progress in decreasing infant mortality. Policymakers should consider investments in health care infrastructure, including expanding public-private partnerships. Policies that improve workforce development programs, transportation infrastructure, and health insurance systems improvements are needed.

Erosion of the Capital City Advantage in Child Survival and Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Intervention Coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The place of residence is a major determinant of RMNCH outcomes, with rural areas often lagging in sub-Saharan Africa. This long-held pattern may be changing given differential progress across areas and increasing urbanization. We assessed inequalities in child mortality and RMNCH coverage across capital cities and other urban and rural areas. We analyzed mortality data from 163 DHS and MICS in 39 countries with the most recent survey conducted between 1990 and 2020 and RMNCH coverage data from 39 countries. We assessed inequality trends in neonatal and under-five mortality and in RMNCH coverage using multilevel linear regression models. Under-five mortality rates and RMNCH service coverage inequalities by place of residence have reduced substantially in sub-Saharan Africa, with rural areas experiencing faster progress than other areas. The absolute gap in child mortality between rural areas and capital cities and that between rural and other urban areas reduced respectively from 41 and 26 deaths per 1000 live births in 2000 to 23 and 15 by 2015. Capital cities are losing their primacy in child survival and RMNCH coverage over other urban areas and rural areas, especially in Eastern Africa where under-five mortality gap between capital cities and rural areas closed almost completely by 2015. While child mortality and RMNCH coverage inequalities are closing rapidly by place of residence, slower trends in capital cities and urban areas suggest gradual erosion of capital city and urban health advantage. Monitoring child mortality and RMNCH coverage trends in urban areas, especially among the urban poor, and addressing factors of within urban inequalities are urgently needed.

Modeling time to death for under-five children in Malawi using 2015/16 Demographic and Health Survey: a survival analysis.

BACKGROUND: Malawi has one of the highest under-five mortality rates in Sub Sahara Africa. Understanding the factors that contribute to child mortality in Malawi is crucial for the development and implementation of effective interventions to reduce child mortality. The aim of this study is to use survival analysis in modeling time to death for under-five children in Malawi. In turn, identify potential risk factors for child mortality and inform the development of interventions to reduce child mortality in the country. METHOD: This study used data from all births that occurred in the five years leading up to the 2015/16 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey. The Frailty hazard model was applied to predict infant survival in Malawi. In this analysis, the outcome of interest was death and it had two possible outcomes: "dead" or "alive". Age at death was regarded as the survival time variable. Infants who were still alive at the time of the study as of the day of the interview were considered as censored observations in the analysis. RESULTS: A total of 17,286 live births born during the 5 years preceding the survey were analysed. The study found that the risk of death was higher among children born to mothers aged 30-39 and 40 or older compared to teen mothers. Infants whose mothers attended fewer than four antenatal care visits were also found to be at a higher risk of death. On the other hand, the study found that using mosquito nets and early breastfeeding were associated with a lower risk of death, as were being male and coming from a wealthier household. CONCLUSION: The study reveals a notable decline in infant mortality rates as under-five children age, underscoring the challenge of ensuring newborn survival. Factors such as maternal age, birth order, socioeconomic status, mosquito net usage, early breastfeeding initiation, geographic location, and child's sex are key predictors of under-five mortality. To address this, public health strategies should prioritize interventions targeting these predictors to reduce under-five mortality rates.