The characteristic time scale of cultural evolution.

Numerous researchers from various disciplines have explored commonalities and divergences in the evolution of complex social formations. Here, we explore whether there is a "characteristic" time course for the evolution of social complexity in a handful of different geographic areas. Data from the Seshat: Global History Databank is shifted so that the overlapping time series can be fitted to a single logistic regression model for all 23 geographic areas under consideration. The resulting regression shows convincing out-of-sample predictions, and its period of extensive growth in social complexity can be identified via bootstrapping as a time interval of roughly 2,500 years. To analyze the endogenous growth of social complexity, each time series is restricted to a central time interval without major disruptions in cultural or institutional continuity, and both approaches result in a similar logistic regression curve. Our results suggest that these different areas have indeed experienced a similar course in the their evolution of social complexity, but that this is a lengthy process involving both internal developments and external influences.

Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate.

Climate variability and natural hazards like floods and earthquakes can act as environmental shocks or socioecological stressors leading to instability and suffering throughout human history. Yet, societies experience a wide range of outcomes when facing such challenges: some suffer from social unrest, civil violence or complete collapse; others prove more resilient and maintain key social functions. We currently lack a clear, generally agreed-upon conceptual framework and evidentiary base to explore what causes these divergent outcomes. Here, we discuss efforts to develop such a framework through the Crisis Database (CrisisDB) programme. We illustrate that the impact of environmental stressors is mediated through extant cultural, political and economic structures that evolve over extended timescales (decades to centuries). These structures can generate high resilience to major shocks, facilitate positive adaptation, or, alternatively, undermine collective action and lead to unrest, violence and even societal collapse. By exposing the ways that different societies have reacted to crises over their lifetime, this framework can help identify the factors and complex social-ecological interactions that either bolster or undermine resilience to contemporary climate shocks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Evolutionary transition from biological to social systems via generation of reflexive models of externality.

Evolutionary transition from biological to social systems corresponds to the emergence of the structure of subject that incorporates the internal image of the external world. This structure, established on the basis of referral of the subject (self) to its symbolic image, acquires a potential to rationally describe the external world through the semiotic structure of human language. It has been modelled in reflexive psychology using the algebra of simple relations (Lefebvre, V.A., J. Soc. Biol. Struct. 10, 129-175, 1987). The model introduces a substantial opposition of the two basic complementary types of reflexion defined as Western (W) and Eastern (E). These types generate opposite models of behavior and opposite organizations of societies. Development of human societies involves the interactions of W and E types not only between the societies but also within one society underlying its homeostasis and dynamics. Invention of new ideas and implementation of new technologies shift the probability pattern of reflexive choices, appearing as internal assessments of the individual agents within a society, and direct changes in the preference of reflexive types. The dynamics of societies and of interactions between societies is based on the interference of opposite reflexive structures and on the establishment of different patterns during such interference. At different times in the history of human civilization these changing patterns resulted in the formation and splitting of large empires, the development and spreading of new technologies, the consecutive periods of wellness and decline.