The influence of social and spatial processes on the epidemiology of environmentally transmitted pathogens in wildlife: implications for management.

Social and spatial structures of host populations play important roles in pathogen transmission. For environmentally transmitted pathogens, the host space use interacts with both the host social structure and the pathogen's environmental persistence (which determines the time-lag across which two hosts can transmit). Together, these factors shape the epidemiological dynamics of environmentally transmitted pathogens. While the importance of both social and spatial structures and environmental pathogen persistence has long been recognized in epidemiology, they are often considered separately. A better understanding of how these factors interact to determine disease dynamics is required for developing robust surveillance and management strategies. Here, we use a simple agent-based model where we vary host mobility (spatial), host gregariousness (social) and pathogen decay (environmental persistence), each from low to high levels to uncover how they affect epidemiological dynamics. By comparing epidemic peak, time to epidemic peak and final epidemic size, we show that longer infectious periods, higher group mobility, larger group size and longer pathogen persistence lead to larger, faster growing outbreaks, and explore how these processes interact to determine epidemiological outcomes such as the epidemic peak and the final epidemic size. We identify general principles that can be used for planning surveillance and control for wildlife host-pathogen systems with environmental transmission across a range of spatial behaviour, social structure and pathogen decay rates. This article is part of the theme issue 'The spatial-social interface: a theoretical and empirical integration'.

Transmission potential of Streptococcus pyogenes during a controlled human infection trial of pharyngitis.

Controlled human infection (CHI) models can provide insights into transmission of pathogens such as Streptococcus pyogenes (Strep A). As part of the Controlled Human Infection with Penicillin for Streptococcus pyogenes (CHIPS) trial, we explored the potential for transmission among participants deliberately infected with the Strep A emm75 strain. Three approaches to understanding transmission were employed: the use of agar settle plates to capture possible droplet or airborne spread of Strep A; measurement of distance droplets could spread during conversation; and environmental swabbing of high-touch items to detect Strep A on surfaces. Of the 60 (27%) CHIPS trial participants across five cohorts, 16 were enrolled in this sub-study; availability of study staff was the primary reason for selection. In total, 189 plates and 260 swabs were collected. Strep A was grown on one settle plate from a participant on the second day, using plates placed 30 cm away. This participant received the placebo dose of penicillin and had met the primary endpoint of pharyngitis. Whole-genome sequencing identified this to be the challenge strain. Strep A was not detected on any swabs. In this small sample of CHI participants, we did not find evidence of Strep A transmission by the airborne route or fomites, and just one instance of droplet spread while acutely symptomatic with streptococcal pharyngitis. Although these experiments provide evidence of minimal transmission within controlled clinical settings, greater efforts are required to explore Strep A transmission in naturalistic settings.IMPORTANCEStreptococcus pyogenes remains a significant driver of morbidity and mortality, particularly in under-resourced settings. Understanding the transmission modalities of this pathogen is essential to ensuring the success of prevention methods. This proposed paper presents a nascent attempt to determine the transmission potential of Streptococcus pyogenes nested within a larger controlled human infection model.

Virulence and transmission biology of the widespread, ecologically important pathogen of zooplankton, Spirobacillus cienkowskii.

Spirobacillus cienkowskii (Spirobacillus, hereafter) is a widely distributed bacterial pathogen that has significant impacts on the population dynamics of zooplankton (Daphnia spp.), particularly in months when Daphnia are asexually reproducing. However, little is known about Spirobacillus' virulence, transmission mode, and dynamics. As a result, we cannot explain the dynamics of Spirobacillus epidemics in nature or use Spirobacillus as a model pathogen, despite Daphnia's tractability as a model host. Here, we work to fill these knowledge gaps experimentally. We found that Spirobacillus is among the most virulent of Daphnia pathogens, killing its host within a week and reducing host fecundity. We further found that Spirobacillus did not transmit horizontally among hosts unless the host died or was destroyed (i.e., it is an "obligate killer"). In experiments aimed at quantifying the dynamics of horizontal transmission among asexually reproducing Daphnia, we demonstrated that Spirobacillus transmits poorly in the laboratory. In mesocosms, Spirobacillus failed to generate epidemics; in experiments wherein individual Daphnia were exposed, Spirobacillus' transmission success was low. In the (limited) set of conditions we considered, Spirobacillus' transmission success did not change with host density or pathogen dose and declined following environmental incubation. Finally, we conducted a field survey of Spirobacillus' prevalence within egg cases (ephippia) made by sexually reproducing Daphnia. We found Spirobacillus DNA in ~40% of ephippia, suggesting that, in addition to transmitting horizontally among asexually reproducing Daphnia, Spirobacillus may transmit vertically from sexually reproducing Daphnia. Our work fills critical gaps in the biology of Spirobacillus and illuminates new hypotheses vis-à-vis its life history. IMPORTANCE: Spirobacillus cienkowskii is a bacterial pathogen of zooplankton, first described in the 19th century and recently placed in a new family of bacteria, the Silvanigrellaceae. Spirobacillus causes large epidemics in lake zooplankton populations and increases the probability that zooplankton will be eaten by predators. However, little is known about how Spirobacillus transmits among hosts, to what extent it reduces host survival and reproduction (i.e., how virulent it is), and what role virulence plays in Spirobacillus' life cycle. Here, we experimentally quantified Spirobacillus' virulence and showed that Spirobacillus must kill its host to transmit horizontally. We also found evidence that Spirobacillus may transmit vertically via Daphnia's seed-like egg sacks. Our work will help scientists to (i) understand Spirobacillus epidemics, (ii) use Spirobacillus as a model pathogen for the study of host-parasite interactions, and (iii) better understand the unusual group of bacteria to which Spirobacillus belongs.

Prevention and control of Ebola virus transmission: mathematical modelling and data fitting.

The Ebola virus disease (EVD) has been endemic since 1976, and the case fatality rate is extremely high. EVD is spread by infected animals, symptomatic individuals, dead bodies, and contaminated environment. In this paper, we formulate an EVD model with four transmission modes and a time delay describing the incubation period. Through dynamical analysis, we verify the importance of blocking the infection source of infected animals. We get the basic reproduction number without considering the infection source of infected animals. And, it is proven that the model has a globally attractive disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than unity; the disease eventually becomes endemic when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Taking the EVD epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014-2016 as an example, we complete the data fitting by combining the effect of the media to obtain the unknown parameters, the basic reproduction number and its time-varying reproduction number. It is shown by parameter sensitivity analysis that the contact rate and the removal rate of infected group have the greatest influence on the prevalence of the disease. And, the disease-controlling thresholds of these two parameters are obtained. In addition, according to the existing vaccination strategy, only the inoculation ratio in high-risk areas is greater than 0.4, the effective reproduction number can be less than unity. And, the earlier the vaccination time, the greater the inoculation ratio, and the faster the disease can be controlled.

Prion Seeding Activity in Plant Tissues Detected by RT-QuIC.

Prion diseases such as scrapie, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), and chronic wasting disease (CWD) affect domesticated and wild herbivorous mammals. Animals afflicted with CWD, the transmissible spongiform encephalopathy of cervids (deer, elk, and moose), shed prions into the environment, where they may persist and remain infectious for years. These environmental prions may remain in soil, be transported in surface waters, or assimilated into plants. Environmental sampling is an emerging area of TSE research and can provide more information about prion fate and transport once shed by infected animals. In this study, we have developed the first published method for the extraction and detection of prions in plant tissue using the real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) assay. Incubation with a zwitterionic surfactant followed by precipitation with sodium phosphotungstate concentrates the prions within samples and allows for sensitive detection of prion seeding activity. Using this protocol, we demonstrate that prions can be detected within plant tissues and on plant surfaces using the RT-QuIC assay.

Environmental Transmission of Symbionts in the Mangrove Crabs Aratus pisonii and Minuca rapax: Acquisition of the Bacterial Community through Larval Development to Juvenile Stage.

Aratus pisonii and Minuca rapax are two brachyuran crabs living with bacterial ectosymbionts located on gill lamellae. One previous study has shown that several rod-shaped bacterial morphotypes are present and the community is dominated by Alphaproteobacteria and Bacteroidota. This study aims to identify the mode of transmission of the symbionts to the new host generations and to identify the bacterial community colonizing the gills of juveniles. We tested for the presence of bacteria using PCR with universal primers targeting the 16S rRNA encoding gene from gonads, eggs, and different larval stages either obtained in laboratory conditions or from the field. The presence of bacteria on juvenile gills was also characterized by scanning electron microscopy, and subsequently identified by metabarcoding analysis. Gonads, eggs, and larvae were negative to PCR tests, suggesting that bacteria are not present at these stages in significant densities. On the other hand, juveniles of both species display three rod-shaped bacterial morphotypes on gill lamellae, and sequencing revealed that the community is dominated by Bacteroidota and Alphaproteobacteria on A. pisonii juveniles, and by Alphaprotobacteria, Bacteroidota, and Acidimicrobia on M. rapax juveniles. Despite the fact that juveniles of both species co-occur in the same biotope, no shared bacterial phylotype was identified. However, some of the most abundant bacteria present in adults are also present in juveniles of the same species, suggesting that juvenile-associated communities resemble those of adults. Because some of these bacteria were also found in crab burrow water, we hypothesize that the bacterial community is established gradually during the life of the crab starting from the megalopa stage and involves epibiosis-competent bacteria that occur in the environment.

Exploring the transmission modalities of Bunyamwera virus.

Bunyamwera virus (BUNV) (Bunyamwera orthobunyavirus) has been found in Sub-Saharan Africa and demonstrated recently as cocirculating with Rift Valley Fever Virus (RVFV). Little is known regarding the breadth of transmission modalities of Bunyamwera. Given its co-occurence with RVFV, we hypothesized the transmission system of BUNV shared similarities to the RVFV system including transmission by Ae. aegypti mosquitoes and environmentally mediated transmission through fomites and environmental contamination. We exposed Ae. aegypti mosquitoes to BUNV and evaluated their ability to transmit both vertically and horizontally. Further, we investigated the potential for a novel transmission modality via environmental contamination. We found that the LSU colony of Ae. aegypti was not competent for the virus for either horizontal or vertical transmission; but, 20% of larva exposed to virus via contaminated aquatic habitat were positive. However, transstadial clearance of the virus was absolute. Finally, under simulated temperature conditions that matched peak transmission in Rwanda, we found that BUNV was stable in both whole blood and serum for up to 28 days at higher total volume in tubes at moderate quantities (103-5 genome copies/mL). In addition, infectiousness of these samples was demonstrated in 80% of the replicates. At lower volume samples (in plates), infectiousness was retained out to 6-8 days with a maximum infectious titer of 104 PFU/mL. Thus, the potential for contamination of the environment and/or transmission via contaminated fomites exists. Our findings have implications for biosafety and infection control, especially in the context of food animal production.

In Situ Monitoring of Non-Thermal Plasma Cleaning of Surfactant Encapsulated Nanoparticles.

Surfactants are widely used in the synthesis of nanoparticles, as they have a remarkable ability to direct their growth to obtain well-defined shapes and sizes. However, their post-synthesis removal is a challenge, and the methods used often result in morphological changes that defeat the purpose of the initial controlled growth. Moreover, after the removal of surfactants, the highly active surfaces of nanomaterials may undergo structural reconstruction by exposure to a different environment. Thus, ex situ characterization after air exposure may not reflect the effect of the cleaning methods. Here, combining X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, in situ infrared reflection absorption spectroscopy, and environmental transmission electron microscopy measurements with CO probe experiments, we investigated different surfactant-removal methods to produce clean metallic Pt nanoparticles from surfactant-encapsulated ones. It was demonstrated that both ultraviolet-ozone (UV-ozone) treatment and room temperature O2 plasma treatment led to the formation of Pt oxides on the surface after the removal of the surfactant. On the other hand, when H2 was used for plasma treatment, both the Pt0 oxidation state and nanoparticle size distribution were preserved. In addition, H2 plasma treatment can reduce Pt oxides after O2-based treatments, resulting in metallic nanoparticles with clean surfaces. These findings provide a better understanding of the various options for surfactant removal from metal nanoparticles and point toward non-thermal plasmas as the best route if the integrity of the nanoparticle needs to be preserved.

Controlled Growth of Pd Nanocrystals by Interface Interaction on Monolayer MoS2: An Atom-Resolved in Situ Study.

The crystal growth kinetics is crucial for the controllable preparation and performance modulation of metal nanocrystals (NCs). However, the study of growth mechanisms is significantly limited by characterization techniques, and it is still challenging to in situ capture the growth process. Real-time and real-space imaging techniques at the atomic scale can promote the understanding of microdynamics for NC growth. Herein, the growth of Pd NCs on monolayer MoS2 under different atmospheres was in situ studied by environmental transmission electron microscopy. Introducing carbon monoxide can modulate the diffusion of Pd monomers, resulting in the epitaxial growth of Pd NCs with a uniform orientation. The electron energy loss spectroscopy and theoretical calculations showed that the CO adsorption assured the specific exposed facets and good uniformity of Pd NCs. The insight into the gas-solid interface interaction and the microscopic growth mechanism of NCs may shed light on the precise synthesis of NCs on two-dimensional (2D) materials.

Metabarcoding of Hepatitis E Virus Genotype 3 and Norovirus GII from Wastewater Samples in England Using Nanopore Sequencing.

Norovirus is one of the largest causes of gastroenteritis worldwide, and Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is an emerging pathogen that has become the most dominant cause of acute viral hepatitis in recent years. The presence of norovirus and HEV has been reported within wastewater in many countries previously. Here we used amplicon deep sequencing (metabarcoding) to identify norovirus and HEV strains in wastewater samples from England collected in 2019 and 2020. For HEV, we sequenced a fragment of the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) gene targeting genotype three strains. For norovirus, we sequenced the 5' portion of the major capsid protein gene (VP1) of genogroup II strains. Sequencing of the wastewater samples revealed eight different genotypes of norovirus GII (GII.2, GII.3, GII.4, GII.6, GII.7, GII.9, GII.13 and GII.17). Genotypes GII.3 and GII.4 were the most commonly found. The HEV metabarcoding assay was able to identify HEV genotype 3 strains in some samples with a very low viral concentration determined by RT-qPCR. Analysis showed that most HEV strains found in influent wastewater were typed as G3c and G3e and were likely to have originated from humans or swine. However, the small size of the HEV nested PCR amplicon could cause issues with typing, and so this method is more appropriate for samples with high CTs where methods targeting longer genomic regions are unlikely to be successful. This is the first report of HEV RNA in wastewater in England. This study demonstrates the utility of wastewater sequencing and the need for wider surveillance of norovirus and HEV within host species and environments.

Inferring bovine tuberculosis transmission between cattle and badgers via the environment and risk mapping.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is one of the most challenging and persistent health issues in many countries worldwide. In several countries, bTB control is complicated due to the presence of wildlife reservoirs of infection, i.e. European badger (Meles meles) in Ireland and the UK, which can transmit infection to cattle. However, a quantitative understanding of the role of cattle and badgers in bTB transmission is elusive, especially where there is spatial variation in relative density between badgers and cattle. Moreover, as these two species have infrequent direct contact, environmental transmission is likely to play a role, but the quantitative importance of the environment has not been assessed. Therefore, the objective of this study is to better understand bTB transmission between cattle and badgers via the environment in a spatially explicit context and to identify high-risk areas. We developed an environmental transmission model that incorporates both within-herd/territory transmission and between-species transmission, with the latter facilitated by badger territories overlapping with herd areas. Model parameters such as transmission rate parameters and the decay rate parameter of M. bovis were estimated by maximum likelihood estimation using infection data from badgers and cattle collected during a 4-year badger vaccination trial. Our estimation showed that the environment can play an important role in the transmission of bTB, with a half-life of M. bovis in the environment of around 177 days. Based on the estimated transmission rate parameters, we calculate the basic reproduction ratio (R) within a herd, which reveals how relative badger density dictates transmission. In addition, we simulated transmission in each small local area to generate a first between-herd R map that identifies high-risk areas.

Effect of cross-immunity in a two-strain cholera model with aquatic component.

The bacteria Vibrio cholerae relies heavily upon an aquatic reservoir as a transmission route with two distinct serotypes observed in many recent outbreaks. In this paper, we extend previously studied ordinary differential equation epidemiological models to create a two-strain SIRP (susceptible-infectious-recovered-pathogen) system which incorporates both partial cross-immunity between disease strains and environmental pathogen transmission. Of particular interest are undamped anti-phase periodic solutions, as these display a type of coexistence where strains routinely switch dominance, and understanding what drives this switch can optimize the efficiency of the host population's control measures against the disease. We derive the basic reproduction number R0 and use stability analysis to examine the disease free and single-strain equilibria. We formulate a unique coexistence equilibrium and prove uniform persistence of both strains when R0>1. In addition, we simulate solutions to this system, along with seasonally forced versions of the model with and without host coinfection. Cross-immunity and transmission pathways influence damped or sustained oscillatory dynamics, where the presence of seasonality can modify, amplify or synchronize the period and phase of serotypes, driving epidemic waves. Cycling of serotypes over large time intervals, similar to observed data, is found for a range of cross-immunity levels, and the inclusion of coinfection in the model contributes to sustained anti-phase periodic solutions.

Estimating the impact of low temperature on African swine fever virus transmission through contaminated environments.

African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) is the cause of an infectious disease in pigs, which is difficult to control. Long viability of ASFV has been shown for several contaminated materials, especially under low temperature. Therefore, when pigs are exposed to a contaminated environment, new infections could occur without the presence of infectious individuals. For example, a contaminated, poorly washed, empty livestock vehicle poses a risk to the next load of pigs. A quantitative stochastic environmental transmission model was applied to simulate the change in environmental contamination levels over time and calculate the epidemic parameters through exposure-based estimation. Due to the lack of experimental data on environmental transmission at low temperatures, we performed a non-linear fit of the decay rate parameter with temperature based on a literature review. Eventually, 16 scenarios were constructed for different temperature (at 20 °C, 10 °C, 0 °C, or -10 °C) and duration of empty periods (1, 3, 5, or 7 days) after the environment had been contaminated. We quantified the variation in the contamination level of the environment over time and the probability of newly added recipients getting infected when exposed to the environment after the empty period. As a result, the transmission rate parameter for ASFV in pigs was estimated to be 1.53 (0.90, 2.45) day-1, the decay rate parameter to be 1.02 (0.73, 1.47) day-1 (at 21 °C), and the excretion rate parameter to be 2.70 (2.51, 3.02) day-1. Without washing and disinfecting, the environment required 9, 14, 24, 54 days to reach a low probability of causing at least one new case (<0.005) at 20 °C, 10 °C, 0 °C, -10 °C, respectively. In addition, the method proposed in this paper enables assessment of the effect of washing and disinfecting on ASFV environmental transmission. We conducted this study to better understand how the viability of ASFV at different temperatures could affect the infectivity in environmental transmission and to improve risk assessment and disease control strategies.

Honeybee visitation to shared flowers increases Vairimorpha ceranae prevalence in bumblebees.

Vairimorpha (=Nosema) ceranae is a widespread pollinator parasite that commonly infects honeybees and wild pollinators, including bumblebees. Honeybees are highly competent V. ceranae hosts and previous work in experimental flight cages suggests V. ceranae can be transmitted during visitation to shared flowers. However, the relationship between floral visitation in the natural environment and the prevalence of V. ceranae among multiple bee species has not been explored. Here, we analyzed the number and duration of pollinator visits to particular components of squash flowers-including the petals, stamen, and nectary-at six farms in southeastern Michigan, USA. We also determined the prevalence of V. ceranae in honeybees and bumblebees at each site. Our results showed that more honeybee flower contacts and longer duration of contacts with pollen and nectar were linked with greater V. ceranae prevalence in bumblebees. Honeybee visitation patterns appear to have a disproportionately large impact on V. ceranae prevalence in bumblebees even though honeybees are not the most frequent flower visitors. Floral visitation by squash bees or other pollinators was not linked with V. ceranae prevalence in bumblebees. Further, V. ceranae prevalence in honeybees was unaffected by floral visitation behaviors by any pollinator species. These results suggest that honeybee visitation behaviors on shared floral resources may be an important contributor to increased V. ceranae spillover to bumblebees in the field. Understanding how V. ceranae prevalence is influenced by pollinator behavior in the shared floral landscape is critical for reducing parasite spillover into declining wild bee populations.

Environmental transmission of influenza A virus in mallards.

IMPORTANCE: Wild birds are the natural reservoir hosts of influenza A viruses. Highly pathogenic strains of influenza A viruses pose risks to wild birds, poultry, and human health. Thus, understanding how these viruses are transmitted between birds is critical. We conducted an experiment where we experimentally infected mallards which are ducks that are commonly exposed to influenza viruses. We exposed several contact ducks to the experimentally infected duck to estimate the probability that a contact duck would become infected from either exposure to the virus shed directly from the infected duck or shared water contaminated with the virus from the infected duck. We found that environmental transmission from contaminated water best predicted the probability of transmission to naïve contact ducks, relatively low levels of virus in the water were sufficient to cause infection, and the probability of a naïve duck becoming infected varied over time.

Density independent decline from an environmentally transmitted parasite.

Invasive environmentally transmitted parasites have the potential to cause declines in host populations independent of host density, but this is rarely characterized in naturally occurring populations. We investigated (1) epidemiological features of a declining bare-nosed wombat (Vombatus ursinus) population in central Tasmania owing to a sarcoptic mange (agent Sarcoptes scabiei) outbreak, and (2) reviewed all longitudinal wombat-mange studies to improve our understanding of when host population declines may occur. Over a 7-year period, the wombat population declined 80% (95% CI 77-86%) and experienced a 55% range contraction. The average apparent prevalence of mange was high 27% (95% CI 21-34), increased slightly over our study period, and the population decline continued unabated, independent of declining host abundance. Combined with other longitudinal studies, our research indicated wombat populations may be at risk of decline when apparent prevalence exceeds 25%. This empirical study supports the capacity of environmentally transmitted parasites to cause density independent host population declines and suggests prevalence limits may be an indicator of impending decline-causing epizootics in bare-nosed wombats. This research is the first to test effects of density in mange epizootics where transmission is environmental and may provide a guide for when apparent prevalence indicates a local conservation threat.

Host infection and disease-induced mortality modify species contributions to the environmental reservoir.

Environmental pathogen reservoirs exist for many globally important diseases and can fuel epidemics, influence pathogen evolution, and increase the threat of host extinction. Species composition can be an important factor that shapes reservoir dynamics and ultimately determines the outcome of a disease outbreak. However, disease-induced mortality can change species communities, indicating that species responsible for environmental reservoir maintenance may change over time. Here we examine the reservoir dynamics of Pseudogymnoascus destructans, the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome in bats. We quantified changes in pathogen shedding, infection prevalence and intensity, host abundance, and the subsequent propagule pressure imposed by each species over time. We find that highly shedding species are important during pathogen invasion, but contribute less over time to environmental contamination as they also suffer the greatest declines. Less infected species remain more abundant, resulting in equivalent or higher propagule pressure. More broadly, we demonstrate that high infection intensity and subsequent mortality during disease progression can reduce the contributions of high-shedding species to long-term pathogen maintenance.

Assessment of control measures against livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a farrow-to-finish pig herd using infectious disease modelling.

Pigs are considered to be the main reservoir for livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA), which is a zoonotic opportunistic pathogen. As LA-MRSA is an occupational hazard, there is an incentive to control its spread in pig herds. Currently, knowledge about effective control measures which do not require culling the whole herd are limited, and the control strategies against LA-MRSA vary between countries. This study uses a stochastic compartment model to simulate possible control measures for LA-MRSA in a farrow-to-finish pig herd. The aims of the study were to (1) extend a previously published disease spread model with additional management and control measures; (2) use the extended model to study the effect of the individual LA-MRSA control measures on the within-herd LA-MRSA prevalence; (3) evaluate the effect of control measures when they are implemented in combinations. From the individual control measures tested in the study, thorough cleaning was found to be most effective in reducing the LA-MRSA prevalence in the herd. When the different control measures were combined, cleaning together with disease surveillance had the largest impact on reducing the LA-MRSA and a higher chance of causing disease elimination. The results of the study showed that achieving disease elimination once LA-MRSA had been introduced in the herd was challenging but was more likely when control measures were introduced early during the outbreak. This emphasises the importance of early detection of the pathogen and subsequent rapid implementation of LA-MRSA control measures.

Host, environment, and anthropogenic factors drive landscape dynamics of an environmentally transmitted pathogen: Sarcoptic mange in the bare-nosed wombat.

Understanding the spatial dynamics and drivers of wildlife pathogens is constrained by sampling logistics, with implications for advancing the field of landscape epidemiology and targeted allocation of management resources. However, visually apparent wildlife diseases, when combined with remote-surveillance and distribution modelling technologies, present an opportunity to overcome this landscape-scale problem. Here, we investigated dynamics and drivers of landscape-scale wildlife disease, using clinical signs of sarcoptic mange (caused by Sarcoptes scabiei) in its bare-nosed wombat (BNW; Vombatus ursinus) host. We used 53,089 camera-trap observations from over 3261 locations across the 68,401 km2 area of Tasmania, Australia, combined with landscape data and ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM). We investigated: (1) landscape variables predicted to drive habitat suitability of the host; (2) host and landscape variables associated with clinical signs of disease in the host; and (3) predicted locations and environmental conditions at greatest risk of disease occurrence, including some Bass Strait islands where BNW translocations are proposed. We showed that the Tasmanian landscape, and ecosystems therein, are nearly ubiquitously suited to BNWs. Only high mean annual precipitation reduced habitat suitability for the host. In contrast, clinical signs of sarcoptic mange disease in BNWs were widespread, but heterogeneously distributed across the landscape. Mange (which is environmentally transmitted in BNWs) was most likely to be observed in areas of increased host habitat suitability, lower annual precipitation, near sources of freshwater and where topographic roughness was minimal (e.g. human modified landscapes, such as farmland and intensive land-use areas, shrub and grass lands). Thus, a confluence of host, environmental and anthropogenic variables appear to influence the risk of environmental transmission of S. scabiei. We identified that the Bass Strait Islands are highly suitable for BNWs and predicted a mix of high and low suitability for the pathogen. This study is the largest spatial assessment of sarcoptic mange in any host species, and advances understanding of the landscape epidemiology of environmentally transmitted S. scabiei. This research illustrates how host-pathogen co-suitability can be useful for allocating management resources in the landscape.

Spatiotemporal transmission of infectious particles in environment: A case study of Covid-19.

This study explores the dynamic transmission of infectious particles due to COVID-19 in the environment using a spatiotemporal epidemiological approach. We proposed a novel multi-agent model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 by considering several influencing factors. The model divides the population into susceptible and infected and analyzes the impact of different prevention and control measures, such as limiting the number of people and wearing masks on the spread of COVID-19. The findings suggest that reducing population density and wearing masks can significantly reduce the likelihood of virus transmission. Specifically, the research shows that if the population moves within a fixed range, almost everyone will eventually be infected within 1 h. When the population density is 50%, the infection rate is as high as 96%. If everyone does not wear a mask, nearly 72.33% of the people will be infected after 1 h. However, when people wear masks, the infection rate is consistently lower than when they do not wear masks. Even if only 25% of people wear masks, the infection rate with masks is 27.67% lower than without masks, which is strong evidence of the importance of wearing a mask. As people's daily activities are mostly carried out indoors, and many super-spreading events of the new crown epidemic also originated from indoor gatherings, the research on indoor epidemic prevention and control is essential. This study provides decision-making support for epidemic preventions and controls and the proposed methodology can be used in other regions and future epidemics.