Developing reliable and valid measures for evaluating collaborative governance and adaptability: An example from the Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program.

In recent decades, there has been an increased emphasis on, and application of, collaborative and adaptive forms of environmental governance as a means to address complex social-ecological problems that cannot be achieved alone and support sustainable resource management. However, the majority of research in the collaborative governance and adaptability arena has relied on individual or small-n case studies. This has led to a multitude of definitions, indicators, and indices, which limits our ability to make inferences across cases and contexts. Relatedly, most research lacks formal tests of assumptions related to the dimensional structure and validity of constructs thought to represent collaborative dynamics and adaptability. There is a need for systematic and cross-case assessments situated within robust statistical frameworks to further our understanding of the forces and factors that cultivate collaborative governance and adaptability. We developed and administered a standardized survey assessment, grounded in the theory and practice of collaborative governance and adaptability, to fifteen collaborative projects funded under the Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program (CFLRP) in the United States. We then used confirmatory factor analysis to test the dimensional structure, reliability, and validity of our theoretically and empirically grounded measures. Results indicate the components of collaborative governance and adaptability comprise six dimensions - principled engagement, shared motivation, leadership, resources, knowledge and learning, and institutional arrangements. As expected, several dimensions were significantly related, and the pattern of inter-factor relationships aligned with theoretical and empirical assumptions. We also found that the six dimensions represent statistically reliable, valid, and distinct measures that may be used to evaluate collaborative governance and adaptability. While our focus was on the CFLRP, the assessment can be adapted in other collaborative environmental governance contexts and used as a foundation for addressing key research gaps, including relating collaborative environmental governance processes to social-ecological outcomes and collaborative adaptation and resilience through time. This is a critical line of work given the increased emphasis and reliance on long-term collaborative arrangements to achieve sustainability goals.

Applying taper function models for black locust plantations in Greek post-mining areas.

A key process in forest management planning is the estimation of tree volume and, more specifically, merchantable volume. The ability to predict the cumulative stem volume relative to any upper stem diameter on standing trees or stands is essential for forest inventories and the management of forest resources. In the 1980s, the Hellenic Public Power Corporation (HPPC) started the rehabilitation of lignite post-mining areas in Greece by planting mainly black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia, L.). Today, these plantations occupy an area of approximately 2570 ha, but the stem volume has not yet been estimated. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the over- and under-bark stem volume using taper function models for 30 destructively sampled trees. Of the nineteen calibrated fixed-effects models, Kozak's (2004) equation performed best for both the over-bark and under-bark datasets, followed by Lee's (2003) and Muhairwe's (1999) equations. Two fixed effect models were compared with fitted coefficients from Poland and the United States confirming that the local model fits were better suited, as the foreign model coefficients caused an increase in root mean square error (RMSE) for stem diameter predictions of 13% and 218%, respectively. The addition of random effects on a single-stem basis for two coefficients of Kozak's (2004) equation improved the model fit significantly at 86% of the over-bark fixed effect RMSE and 69% for the under-bark model. Integrated taper functions were found to slightly outperform three volume equations for predictions of single stem volume over and under bark. Ultimately it was shown that these models can be used to precisely predict stem diameters and total stem volume for the population average as well as for specific trees of the black locust plantations in the study area.

The social-ecological ladder of restoration ambition.

Expanding in both scope and scale, ecosystem restoration needs to embrace complex social-ecological dynamics. To help scientists and practitioners navigate ever new demands on restoration, we propose the "social-ecological ladder of restoration ambition" as a conceptual model to approach dynamically shifting social and ecological restoration goals. The model focuses on three dynamic aspects of restoration, namely degrading processes, restoration goals and remedial actions. As these three change through time, new reinforcing and balancing feedback mechanisms characterize the restoration process. We illustrate our model through case studies in which restoration has become increasingly ambitious through time, namely forest landscape restoration in Rwanda and grassland restoration in Germany. The ladder of restoration ambition offers a new way of applying social-ecological systems thinking to ecosystem restoration. Additionally, it raises awareness of social-ecological trade-offs, power imbalances and conflicting goals in restoration projects, thereby laying an important foundation for finding more practicable and fairer solutions.

Green deserts, but not always: A global synthesis of native woody species regeneration under tropical tree monocultures.

Tree monocultures constitute an increasing fraction of the global tree cover and are the dominant tree-growing strategy of forest landscape restoration commitments. Their advantages to produce timber are well known, but their value for biodiversity is highly controversial and context dependent. Therefore, understanding whether, and in which conditions, they can harbor native species regeneration is crucial. Here, we conducted meta-analyses based on a global survey of the literature and on a database created with local, unpublished studies throughout Brazil to evaluate the regeneration potential of native species under tree monocultures and the way management influences this regeneration. Native woody species regeneration under tree monocultures harbors a substantial fraction of the diversity (on average 40% and 68% in the global and Brazilian surveys, respectively) and abundance (on average 25% and 60% in the global and Brazilian surveys, respectively) of regeneration observed in natural forests. Plantations with longer rotation lengths, composed of native tree species, and located adjacent to forest remnants harbor more species. Pine plantations harbor more native individuals than eucalypt plantations, and the abundance of regenerating trees is higher in sites with higher mean temperatures. Species-area curves revealed that the number of woody species under pine and eucalypt plantations in Brazil is 606 and 598 species, respectively, over an aggregated sampled area of ca. 12 ha. We highlight that the understory of tree monocultures can harbor a considerable diversity of regenerating native species at the landscape and regional scales, but this diversity strongly depends on management. Long-rotation length and favorable location are key factors for woody regeneration success under tropical tree monocultures. Therefore, tree monocultures can play a role in forest landscape restoration and conservation, but only if they are planned and managed for achieving this purpose.

Private land management is more important than public land in sustaining oaks in temperate forests in the eastern U.S.

Preserving the abundance and stocking of oaks (Quercus spp.) has become increasingly challenging in temperate hardwood forests of the eastern US in recent decades due to a remarkable shift in dominance to mesophytic species (e.g., red maple Acer rubrum). Studies have shown that efforts to sustain oaks while restraining maples yield limited success. Given that a significant portion of forestlands in the eastern U.S. are privately owned, it is critical to assess whether current forest management on cross-ownership forests can achieve those objectives. However, such assessments are rare. In this study, we employed a landscape modeling approach to investigate the long-term outcomes (i.e., 150-year forest composition and structure) of business-as-usual management and alternative management in a large, temperate hardwood forest landscape in Ohio, US. The business-as-usual management continues the current existing management practices, whereas the alternative management increases the pace and scale of forest management on both private and public lands to favor oaks. We compared the basal area and relative dominance for oaks (including Q. alba, Q. coccinea, Q. prinus, Q. rubra, and Q. velutina) and maples (including A. rubrum, A. saccharinum, and A. saccharum). Our results demonstrate that the implementation of business-as-usual management practices on both private and public lands may not effectively ensure the long-term sustainability of oak populations, but instead promote the proliferation of maple species over time. By contrast, alternative management on both private and public lands can effectively sustain oaks across a range of diameter classes while mitigating the growth of large, dominant maples. Our study emphasizes the influential role of private lands in driving oak-maple dynamics at the regional scale, as they can generate significant regional effects even when public lands continue with their business-as-usual management practices. Starting conditions based on landownership are crucial considerations for understanding these dynamics over time.

Promoting forest landscape dynamic prediction with an online collaborative strategy.

Modeling and predicting forest landscape dynamics are crucial for forest management and policy making, especially under the context of climate change and increased severities of disturbances. As forest landscapes change rapidly due to a variety of anthropogenic and natural factors, accurately and efficiently predicting forest dynamics requires the collaboration and synthesis of domain knowledge and experience from geographically dispersed experts. Owing to advanced web techniques, such collaboration can now be achieved to a certain extent, for example, discussion about modeling methods, consultation for model use, and surveying for stakeholders' feedback can be conducted on the web. However, a research gap remains in terms of how to facilitate online joint actions in the core task of forest landscape modeling by overcoming the challenges from decentralized and heterogeneous data, offline model computation modes, complex simulation scenarios, and exploratory modeling processes. Therefore, we propose an online collaborative strategy to enable collaborative forest landscape dynamic prediction with four core modules, namely data preparation, forest landscape model (FLM) computation, simulation scenario configuration, and process organization. These four modules are designed to support: (1) voluntary data collection and online processing, (2) online synchronous use of FLMs, (3) collaborative simulation scenario design, altering, and execution, and (4) participatory modeling process customization and coordination. We used the LANDIS-II model as a representative FLM to demonstrate the online collaborative strategy for predicting the dynamics of forest aboveground biomass. The results showed that the online collaboration strategy effectively promoted forest landscape dynamic prediction in data preparation, scenario configuration, and task arrangement, thus supporting forest-related decision making.

Spatial patterns of hyperparasitism along a latitudinal gradient of forest genus diversity: insights from the spruce budworm-parasitoids community.

High-order mobile predators are generally thought to increase ecosystem stability and resilience to natural perturbations. In many insect food-webs, higher trophic positions are occupied by parasitoids, which are themselves hosts for hyperparasitoids that can reduce primary parasitoids' efficiency in controlling insect pests. Hyperparasitoids can thus provide ecosystem disservices by facilitating pest outbreaks, or ecosystem services by stabilizing food web fluctuations over longer time periods. To better understand how hyperparasitism affects multitrophic forest systems, we examined for the first time spatial variations in hyperparasitism associated with the spruce budworm. We examined 2 common primary parasitoids of the spruce budworm during outbreaks (Apanteles fumiferanae and Glypta fumiferanae), and estimated their true and pseudohyperparasitism rates in 2014-2015 from 28 locations across a latitudinal gradient (over 450 km) of forest genus diversity. Hyperparasitoid cryptic diversity was also quantified using DNA-barcoding. We found that A. fumiferanae and G. fumiferanae share at least 2 of 5 common hyperparasitoid species, confirming the connected nature of the spruce budworm-parasitoid food web. Moreover, hyperparasitism is modulated by spatial context as we observed a positive correlation between forest genus diversity and hyperparasitism for A. fumiferanae, but not for G. fumiferanae. Further monitoring hyperparasitism holds significant potential to provide new insights into how forest composition affects multitrophic interactions and spatio-temporal outbreak dynamics.

Identifying and managing disturbance-stimulated flammability in woody ecosystems.

Many forest types globally have been subject to an increase in the frequency of, and area burnt by, high-severity wildfire. Here we explore the role that previous disturbance has played in increasing the extent and severity of subsequent forest fires. We summarise evidence documenting and explaining the mechanisms underpinning a pulse of flammability that may follow disturbances such as fire, logging, clearing or windthrow (a process we term disturbance-stimulated flammability). Disturbance sometimes initiates a short initial period of low flammability, but then drives an extended period of increased flammability as vegetation regrows. Our analysis initially focuses on well-documented cases in Australia, but we also discuss where these pattens may apply elsewhere, including in the Northern Hemisphere. We outline the mechanisms by which disturbance drives flammability through disrupting the ecological controls that limit it in undisturbed forests. We then develop and test a conceptual model to aid prediction of woody vegetation communities where such patterns of disturbance-stimulated flammability may occur. We discuss the interaction of ecological controls with climate change, which is driving larger and more severe fires. We also explore the current state of knowledge around the point where disturbed, fire-prone stands are sufficiently widespread in landscapes that they may promote spatial contagion of high-severity wildfire that overwhelms any reduction in fire spread offered by less-flammable stands. We discuss how land managers might deal with the major challenges that changes in landscape cover and altered fire regimes may have created. This is especially pertinent in landscapes now dominated by extensive areas of young forest regenerating after logging, regrowing following broadscale fire including prescribed burning, or regenerating following agricultural land abandonment. Where disturbance is found to stimulate flammability, then key management actions should consider the long-term benefits of: (i) limiting disturbance-based management like logging or burning that creates young forests and triggers understorey development; (ii) protecting young forests from disturbances and assisting them to transition to an older, less-flammable state; and (iii) reinforcing the fire-inhibitory properties of older, less-flammable stands through methods for rapid fire detection and suppression.

Conservation spillover effect of UNESCO World Heritage Sites into surrounding landscapes.

Protected areas (PA) are one of the primary tools for conserving and protecting biodiversity, but their goals have evolved overtime beyond nature conservation to include supporting human communities within and adjacent to the PA. UNESCO World Heritage Sites (WHS) offer a unique perspective on the success of PAs as they fall under three categories, cultural, natural, and mixed heritage sites. The nature of these categories encapsulates the inclusion of human communities in the goals of the WHS. To understand the impact and relationship the WHS has with its surrounding landscape, we assessed changes in three indicators, land use and land cover (LULC), human footprint (HF), and forest landscape integrity index (FLII), across three spatial scales, 1, 10, 100 km from the WHS boundary. We found that there is a conservation spillover effect at least within 1 km of the WHS boundary. In this buffer zone, HF was low and FLII was high. FLII was lower and HF was higher at larger spatial scales. The relationship between the WHS and its surrounding landscape is one reason to support the WHS network, however, management of PAs should be more explicit about this relationship as well as relationships between individual PAs.

Digitalizing forest landscape restoration: a social and political analysis of emerging technological practices.

Digital technologies are increasingly influencing forest landscape restoration practices worldwide. We investigate how digital platforms specifically reconfigure restoration practices, resources, and policy across scales. By analyzing digital restoration platforms, we identify four drivers of technological developments, including: scientific expertise to optimize decisions; capacity building through digital networks; digital tree-planting markets to operate supply chains; and community participation to foster co-creation. Our analysis shows how digital developments transform restoration practices by producing techniques, remaking networks, creating markets, and reorganizing participation. These transformations often involve power imbalances regarding expertise, finance, and politics across the Global North and Global South. However, the distributed qualities of digital systems can also create alternative ways of undertaking restoration actions. We propose that digital developments for restoration should not be understood as neutral tools but rather as power-laden processes that can create, perpetuate, or counteract social and environmental inequalities.

Outcomes of Forest Landscape Restoration Shaped by Endogenous or Exogenous Actors and Institutions? A Systematic Review on Sub-Saharan Africa.

Although ambitious, forest landscape restoration (FLR) is still very high on global climate change mitigation and adaptation research and policy agendas. The scientific literature highlights the importance of institutions and actors' collaboration for achieving the intended outcomes. Despite these diffuse indications, a comprehensive understanding of the role played by different types of actors and institutions in shaping FLR outcomes is missing. This hinders the definition of an actor-cum-institutions research agenda for FLR, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Yet, in this region, different actors with diverse interests shape FLR practices. Likewise, formal and informal institutions are known to collide frequently. Hence, this paper addresses the lacunae by systematically reviewing FLR actors' interests and power manifestations and the typologies of institutions linked to FLR outcomes in SSA. The review further defines future research agendas on actors and institutions in SSA. The following lessons can be drawn from the review of 75 peer-reviewed journal articles: First, while exogenous actors are interested more in the ecological benefits of FLR, endogenous actors are interested in economic ones. Second, exogenous actors mostly use (dis-)incentives and coercion to shape the behavior of endogenous actors in FLR. Finally, while the exogenous formal institutional typology produces positive and negative ecological, economic, political, and sociocultural FLR outcomes, the endogenous formal and informal institutions produce only positive outcomes. Future studies should identify actors' compliance levels of the exogenous and endogenous formal and informal typologies of institutions. Future studies should also analyze the effectiveness of FLR-linked institutions towards ensuring successful FLR.

Effects of forest management practices on carbon dynamics of China's boreal forests under changing climates.

Climate change and forest management practices influence forest productivity and carbon budgets, and understanding their interactions is necessary to develop accurate predictions of carbon dynamics as many countries in the world strive towards carbon neutrality. Here, we developed a model-coupling framework to simulate the carbon dynamics of boreal forests in China. The expected dynamics of forest recovery and change following intense timber harvesting in the recent past and projected carbon dynamics into the future under different climate change scenarios and forest management practices (e.g., restoration, afforestation, tending, and fuel management). We predict that under current management strategies, climate change would lead to increased fire frequency and intensity, eventually shifting these forests from carbon sinks towards being carbon sources. This study suggests that future boreal forest management should be altered to reduce the probability of fire occurrence and carbon losses caused by catastrophic fires through planting deciduous species, mechanical removal, and prescribed fire.

A systems approach framework for evaluating tree restoration interventions for social and ecological outcomes in rural tropical landscapes.

The science guiding design and evaluation of restoration interventions in tropical landscapes is dominated by ecological processes and outcomes and lacks indicators and methods that integrate human wellbeing into the restoration process. We apply a new systems approach framework for tree restoration in forest-agricultural landscapes to show how this shortcoming can be addressed. Demonstrating 'proof of concept', we tested statistical models underlying the framework pathways with data collected from a case study in Tanzania. Local community perceptions of nature's values were not affected by levels of self-reported wildlife-induced crop damage. But mapped predictions from the systems approach under a tree restoration scenario suggested differential outcomes for biodiversity indicators and altered spatial patterns of crop damage risk, expected to jeopardize human wellbeing. The predictions map anticipated trade-offs in costs and benefits of restoration scenarios, which we have started to explore with stakeholders to identify restoration opportunities that consider local knowledge, value systems and human wellbeing. We suggest that the framework be applied to other landscapes to identify commonalities and differences in forest landscape restoration outcomes under varying governance and land use systems. This should form a foundation for evidence-based implementation of the global drive for forest landscape restoration, at local scales. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

The role of incentive mechanisms in promoting forest restoration.

Forest restoration has been proposed as a scalable nature-based solution to achieve global environmental and socio-economic outcomes and is central to many policy initiatives, such as the Bonn Challenge. Restored forests contain appreciable biodiversity, improve habitat connectivity and sequester carbon. Incentive mechanisms (e.g. payments for ecosystem services and allocation of management rights) have been a focus of forest restoration efforts for decades. Yet, there is still little understanding of their role in promoting restoration success. We conducted a systematic literature review to investigate how incentive mechanisms are used to promote forest restoration, outcomes, and the biophysical and socio-economic factors that influence implementation and program success. We found that socio-economic factors, such as governance, monitoring systems and the experience and beliefs of participants, dominate whether or not an incentive mechanism is successful. We found that approximately half of the studies report both positive ecological and socio-economic outcomes. However, reported adverse outcomes were more commonly socio-economic than ecological. Our results reveal that achieving forest restoration at a sufficient scale to meet international commitments will require stronger assessment and management of socio-economic factors that enable or constrain the success of incentive mechanisms. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Fifteen essential science advances needed for effective restoration of the world's forest landscapes.

There has never been a more pressing and opportune time for science and practice to collaborate towards restoration of the world's forests. Multiple uncertainties remain for achieving successful, long-term forest landscape restoration (FLR). In this article, we use expert knowledge and literature review to identify knowledge gaps that need closing to advance restoration practice, as an introduction to a landmark theme issue on FLR and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. Aligned with an Adaptive Management Cycle for FLR, we identify 15 essential science advances required to facilitate FLR success for nature and people. They highlight that the greatest science challenges lie in the conceptualization, planning and assessment stages of restoration, which require an evidence base for why, where and how to restore, at realistic scales. FLR and underlying sciences are complex, requiring spatially explicit approaches across disciplines and sectors, considering multiple objectives, drivers and trade-offs critical for decision-making and financing. The developing tropics are a priority region, where scientists must work with stakeholders across the Adaptive Management Cycle. Clearly communicated scientific evidence for action at the outset of restoration planning will enable donors, decision makers and implementers to develop informed objectives, realistic targets and processes for accountability. This article paves the way for 19 further articles in this theme issue, with author contributions from across the world. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

A practice-led assessment of landscape restoration potential in a biodiversity hotspot.

Effective restoration planning tools are needed to mitigate global carbon and biodiversity crises. Published spatial assessments of restoration potential are often at large scales or coarse resolutions inappropriate for local action. Using a Tanzanian case study, we introduce a systematic approach to inform landscape restoration planning, estimating spatial variation in cost-effectiveness, based on restoration method, logistics, biomass modelling and uncertainty mapping. We found potential for biomass recovery across 77.7% of a 53 000 km2 region, but with some natural spatial discontinuity in moist forest biomass, that was previously assigned to human causes. Most areas with biomass deficit (80.5%) were restorable through passive or assisted natural regeneration. However, cumulative biomass gains from planting outweighed initially high implementation costs meaning that, where applicable, this method yielded greater long-term returns on investment. Accounting for ecological, funding and other uncertainty, the top 25% consistently cost-effective sites were within protected areas and/or moderately degraded moist forest and savanna. Agro-ecological mosaics had high biomass deficit but little cost-effective restoration potential. Socio-economic research will be needed to inform action towards environmental and human development goals in these areas. Our results highlight value in long-term landscape restoration investments and separate treatment of savannas and forests. Furthermore, they contradict previously asserted low restoration potential in East Africa, emphasizing the importance of our regional approach for identifying restoration opportunities across the tropics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Landscape-variability of the carbon balance across managed boreal forests.

Boreal forests are important global carbon (C) sinks and, therefore, considered as a key element in climate change mitigation policies. However, their actual C sink strength is uncertain and under debate, particularly for the actively managed forests in the boreal regions of Fennoscandia. In this study, we use an extensive set of biometric- and chamber-based C flux data collected in 50 forest stands (ranging from 5 to 211 years) over 3 years (2016-2018) with the aim to explore the variations of the annual net ecosystem production (NEP; i.e., the ecosystem C balance) across a 68 km2 managed boreal forest landscape in northern Sweden. Our results demonstrate that net primary production rather than heterotrophic respiration regulated the spatio-temporal variations of NEP across the heterogeneous mosaic of the managed boreal forest landscape. We further find divergent successional patterns of NEP in our managed forests relative to naturally regenerating boreal forests, including (i) a fast recovery of the C sink function within the first decade after harvest due to the rapid establishment of a productive understory layer and (ii) a sustained C sink in old stands (131-211 years). We estimate that the rotation period for optimum C sequestration extends to 138 years, which over multiple rotations results in a long-term C sequestration rate of 86.5 t C ha-1 per rotation. Our study highlights the potential of forest management to maximize C sequestration of boreal forest landscapes and associate climate change mitigation effects by developing strategies that optimize tree biomass production rather than heterotrophic soil C emissions.

Forest Landscape Effects on Dispersal of Spruce Budworm Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens, 1865) (Lepidoptera, Tortricidae) and Forest Tent Caterpillar Malacosoma disstria Hübner, 1820 (Lepidoptera, Lasiocampidae) Female Moths in Alberta, Canada.

Leaf-rollers and tent caterpillars, the families Torticidae and Lasiocampidae, represent a significant component of the Lepidoptera, and are well-represented in the forest insect pest literature of North America. Two species in particular-spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) and forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hbn.)-are the most significant pests of the Pinaceae and Salicacae, respectively, in the boreal forest of Canada, each exhibiting periodic outbreaks of tremendous extent. Dispersal is thought to play a critical role in the triggering of population eruptions and in the synchronization of outbreak cycling, but formal studies of dispersal, in particular studies of long-range dispersal by egg-bearing adult females, are rare. Here, it is shown in two independent studies that adult females of both species tend to disperse away from sparse or defoliated forest, and toward intact or undefoliated forest, suggesting that long-range dispersal during an outbreak peak is adaptive to the species and an important factor in their population dynamics, and hence their evolutionary biology.

Ecogeographical variable dataset for species distribution modelling, describing forest landscape in Latvia, 2017.

In this article, we provide access to, and information on the production of 42 ecogeographical variables (EGVs) used to describe the landscape of Latvia at three scales (local and two landscape). Layers are focused on the description of forest heterogeneity, but account for other ecosystems and land cover types as well. The more temporarily changing land use and land cover (LULC) types as forest and agricultural lands are described from 2017 databases. With most of the other LULC information was gathered from the topographic map (2016) at the scale of 1:10 000. All the raster layers provided here are in the Latvian projected coordinate reference system (epsg:3059) with a grid cell size of 25 ha. Each layer provides quantitative information on the area, shape, and edge of habitat classes and additionally, age, time since the last forestry disturbance, relative soil humidity, relative soil richness etc. for forests. The three scales represent information from within 25 ha grid cell, and two radii - 1250 and 2500 m - around the centre of the grid cell.

Managing for the unexpected: Building resilient forest landscapes to cope with global change.

Natural disturbances exacerbated by novel climate regimes are increasing worldwide, threatening the ability of forest ecosystems to mitigate global warming through carbon sequestration and to provide other key ecosystem services. One way to cope with unknown disturbance events is to promote the ecological resilience of the forest by increasing both functional trait and structural diversity and by fostering functional connectivity of the landscape to ensure a rapid and efficient self-reorganization of the system. We investigated how expected and unexpected variations in climate and biotic disturbances affect ecological resilience and carbon storage in a forested region in southeastern Canada. Using a process-based forest landscape model (LANDIS-II), we simulated ecosystem responses to climate change and insect outbreaks under different forest policy scenarios-including a novel approach based on functional diversification and network analysis-and tested how the potentially most damaging insect pests interact with changes in forest composition and structure due to changing climate and management. We found that climate warming, lengthening the vegetation season, will increase forest productivity and carbon storage, but unexpected impacts of drought and insect outbreaks will drastically reduce such variables. Generalist, non-native insects feeding on hardwood are the most damaging biotic agents for our region, and their monitoring and early detection should be a priority for forest authorities. Higher forest diversity driven by climate-smart management and fostered by climate change that promotes warm-adapted species, might increase disturbance severity. However, alternative forest policy scenarios led to a higher functional and structural diversity as well as functional connectivity-and thus to higher ecological resilience-than conventional management. Our results demonstrate that adopting a landscape-scale perspective by planning interventions strategically in space and adopting a functional trait approach to diversify forests is promising for enhancing ecological resilience under unexpected global change stressors.