Global geoepidemiology of gastrointestinal surgery rates in Crohn's disease.

BACKGROUND: Data regarding the worldwide gastrointestinal surgery rates in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) remains limited. AIM: To systematically review the global variation in the rates of surgery in CD. METHODS: A comprehensive search analysis was performed using multiple electronic databases from inception through July 1, 2020, to identify all full text, randomized controlled trials and cohort studies pertaining to gastrointestinal surgery rates in adult patients with CD. Outcomes included continent based demographic data, CD surgery rates over time, as well as the geoepidemiologic variation in CD surgery rates. Statistical analyses were conducted using R. RESULTS: Twenty-three studies spanning four continents were included. The median proportion of persons with CD who underwent gastrointestinal surgery in studies from North America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania were 30% (range: 1.7%-62.0%), 40% (range: 0.6%-74.0%), 17% (range: 16.0%-43.0%), and 38% respectively. No clear association was found regarding the proportion of patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery over time in North America (R 2 = 0.035) and Europe (R 2 = 0.100). A moderate, negative association was seen regarding the proportion of patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery over time (R 2 = 0.520) in Asia. CONCLUSION: There appears to be significant inter-continental variation regarding surgery rates in CD. Homogenous evidence-based guidelines accounting for the geographic differences in managing patients with CD is prudent. Moreover, as a paucity of data on surgery rates in CD exists outside the North American and European continents, future studies, particularly in less studied locales, are warranted.

Geographical coverage of SARS-CoV-2 screening and care centers in Haiti: what do national surveillance data tell us?

BACKGROUND: In Haiti, reported incidence and mortality rates for COVID-19 were lower than expected. We aimed to analyze factors at communal and individual level that might lead to an underestimation of the true burden of the COVID-19 epidemic in Haiti during its first two years. METHODS: We analyzed national COVID-19 surveillance data from March 2020 to December 2021, to describe the epidemic using cluster detection, time series, and cartographic approach. We performed multivariate Quasi-Poisson regression models to determine socioeconomic factors associated with incidence and mortality. We performed a mixed-effect logistic regression model to determine individual factors associated with the infection. RESULTS: Among the 140 communes of Haiti, 57 (40.7%) had a COVID-19 screening center, and the incidence was six times higher in these than in those without. Only 22 (15.7%) communes had a COVID-19 care center, and the mortality was five times higher in these than in those without. All the richest communes had a COVID-19 screening center while only 30.8% of the poorest had one. And 75% of the richest communes had a COVID-19 care center while only 15.4% of the poorest had one. Having more than three healthcare workers per 1000 population in the commune was positively associated with the incidence (SIR: 3.31; IC95%: 2.50, 3.93) and the mortality (SMR: 2.73; IC95%: 2.03, 3.66). At the individual level, male gender (adjusted OR: 1.11; IC95%: 1.01, 1.22), age with a progressive increase of the risk compared to youngers, and having Haitian nationality only (adjusted OR:2.07; IC95%: 1.53, 2.82) were associated with the infection. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the weakness of SARS-CoV-2 screening and care system in Haiti, particularly in the poorest communes, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths were probably greatly underestimated.

Geoepidemiological perspective on COVID-19 pandemic review, an insight into the global impact.

The COVID-19 pandemic showed major impacts, on societies worldwide, challenging healthcare systems, economies, and daily life of people. Geoepidemiology, an emerging field that combines geography and epidemiology, has played a vital role in understanding and combatting the spread of the virus. This interdisciplinary approach has provided insights into the spatial patterns, risk factors, and transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic at different scales, from local communities to global populations. Spatial patterns have revealed variations in incidence rates, with urban-rural divides and regional hotspots playing significant roles. Cross-border transmission has highlighted the importance of travel restrictions and coordinated public health responses. Risk factors such as age, underlying health conditions, socioeconomic factors, occupation, demographics, and behavior have influenced vulnerability and outcomes. Geoepidemiology has also provided insights into the transmissibility and spread of COVID-19, emphasizing the importance of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission, super-spreading events, and the impact of variants. Geoepidemiology should be vital in understanding and responding to evolving new viral challenges of this and future pandemics.

Presymptomatic geographical distribution of ALS patients suggests the involvement of environmental factors in the disease pathogenesis.

BACKGROUND: Given that the pathogenetic process of ALS begins many years prior to its clinical onset, examining patients' residential histories may offer insights on the disease risk factors. Here, we analyzed the spatial distribution of a large ALS cohort in the 50 years preceding the disease onset. METHODS: Data from the PARALS register were used. A spatial cluster analysis was performed at the time of disease onset and at 1-year intervals up to 50 years prior to that. RESULTS: A total of 1124 patients were included. The analysis revealed a higher-incidence cluster in a large area (435,000 inhabitants) west of Turin. From 9 to 2 years before their onset, 105 cases were expected and 150 were observed, resulting in a relative risk of 1.49 (P = 0.04). We also found a surprising high number of patients pairs (51) and trios (3) who lived in the same dwelling while not being related. Noticeably, these occurrences were not observed in large dwellings as we would have expected. The probability of this occurring in smaller buildings only by chance was very low (P = 0.01 and P = 0.04 for pairs and trios, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We identified a higher-incidence ALS cluster in the years preceding the disease onset. The cluster area being densely populated, many exposures could have contributed to the high incidence ALS cluster, while we could not find a shared exposure among the dwellings where multiple patients had lived. However, these findings support that exogenous factors are likely involved in the ALS pathogenesis.

Spatial and Ecological Factors Modulate the Incidence of Anti-NMDAR Encephalitis-A Systematic Review.

Anti-NMDAR encephalitis has been associated with multiple antigenic triggers (i.e., ovarian teratomas, prodromal viral infections) but whether geographic, climatic, and environmental factors might influence disease risk has not been explored yet. We performed a systematic review and a meta-analysis of all published papers reporting the incidence of anti-NMDAR encephalitis in a definite country or region. We performed several multivariate spatial autocorrelation analyses to analyze the spatial variations in the incidence of anti-NMDA encephalitis depending on its geographical localization and temperature. Finally, we performed seasonal analyses in two original datasets from France and Greece and assessed the impact of temperature using an exposure-lag-response model in the French dataset. The reported incidence of anti-NMDAR encephalitis varied considerably among studies and countries, being higher in Oceania and South America (0.2 and 0.16 per 100,000 persons-year, respectively) compared to Europe and North America (0.06 per 100,000 persons-year) (p < 0.01). Different regression models confirmed a strong negative correlation with latitude (Pearson's R = -0.88, p < 0.00001), with higher incidence in southern hemisphere countries far from the equator. Seasonal analyses showed a peak of cases during warm months. Exposure-lag-response models confirmed a positive correlation between extreme hot temperatures and the incidence of anti-NMDAR encephalitis in France (p = 0.03). Temperature analyses showed a significant association with higher mean temperatures and positive correlation with higher ultraviolet exposure worldwide. This study provides the first evidence that geographic and climatic factors including latitude, mean annual temperature, and ultraviolet exposure, might modify disease risk.

Social deprivation and SARS-CoV-2 testing: a population-based analysis in a highly contrasted southern France region.

Background: Testing was the cornerstone of the COVID-19 epidemic response in most countries until vaccination became available for the general population. Social inequalities generally affect access to healthcare and health behaviors, and COVID-19 was rapidly shown to impact deprived population more drastically. In support of the regional health agency in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur (PACA) in South-Eastern France, we analyzed the relationship between testing rate and socio-demographic characteristics of the population, to identify gaps in testing coverage and improve targeting of response strategies. Methods: We conducted an ecological analysis of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 testing rate in the PACA region, based on data aggregated at the finest spatial resolution available in France (IRIS) and by periods defined by public health implemented measures and major epidemiological changes. Using general census data, population density, and specific deprivation indices, we used principal component analysis followed by hierarchical clustering to define profiles describing local socio-demographic characteristics. We analyzed the association between these profiles and testing rates in a generalized additive multilevel model, adjusting for access to healthcare, presence of a retirement home, and the age profile of the population. Results: We identified 6 socio-demographic profiles across the 2,306 analyzed IRIS spatial units: privileged, remote, intermediate, downtown, deprived, and very deprived (ordered by increasing social deprivation index). Profiles also ranged from rural (remote) to high density urban areas (downtown, very deprived). From July 2020 to December 2021, we analyzed SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 testing rate over 10 periods. Testing rates fluctuated strongly but were highest in privileged and downtown areas, and lowest in very deprived ones. The lowest adjusted testing rate ratios (aTRR) between privileged (reference) and other profiles occurred after implementation of a mandatory healthpass for many leisure activities in July 2021. Periods of contextual testing near Christmas displayed the largest aTRR, especially during the last periods of 2021 after the end of free convenience testing for unvaccinated individuals. Conclusion: We characterized in-depth local heterogeneity and temporal trends in testing rates and identified areas and circumstances associated with low testing rates, which the regional health agency targeted specifically for the deployment of health mediation activities.

Geo-epidemiology of animal tuberculosis and Mycobacterium bovis genotypes in livestock in a small, high-incidence area in Sicily, Italy.

Introduction: The persistence of animal tuberculosis (TB) in livestock is a major concern in Sicily, Italy. The objective of this study was to elucidate the transmission dynamics of M. bovis infection in a highly circumscribed, and at the same time geographically diverse, high-risk area of the island through an in-depth geo-epidemiological investigation of TB in cattle and black pigs raised in small-scale extensive farms across the district of Caronia. Methods: We used genotype analysis coupled with geographic information system (GIS) technology and phylogenetic inference to characterize the spatial distribution of TB and M. bovis genotypes in livestock and the genetic relationships between M. bovis isolates. A total of 589 M. bovis isolates collected from slaughtered cattle (n = 527) and Sicilian black pigs (n = 62) over a 5-year period (2014-2018) were included in the study. Results: TB was widespread throughout the district and was most frequent in the north-central area of the district, especially along one of the district's streams. We identified a total of 62 M. bovis genotypes. Identical genetic profiles were isolated from both neighboring and non-neighburing herds. The 10 most frequent genotypes, accounting for 82% of M. bovis isolates, showed geographic specificities in that they tended to cluster in specific spatial niches. The landscape structure of these niches-i.e. steep slopes, rocky ridges, meadows and streams-is likely to have had a significant influence on the distribution of TB among livestock in Caronia. Higher concentrations of TB were observed along streams and in open meadows, while rocky ridges and slopes appeared to have hampered the spread of TB. Discussion: The geographical distribution of TB cases among livestock in Caronia is consistent with several epidemiological scenarios (e.g., high density of infected herds along the streams or in hilly plateau where livestock share pastures). Landscape structure is likely to play an important role in the transmission and persistence of M. bovis infection across the district. Additional potential risk factors, such as livestock trading and extensive breeding methods, are also discussed. Our results will contribute to the improvement of surveillance, control and eradication activities of TB in Sicily by the implementation of ad hoc TB control measures, especially in farms located along streams, sharing common pastures or with mixed animal species.

Geo-epidemiological approach of the COVID-19 pandemic in France and in Europe for public health policies.

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has shown great heterogeneity between countries that merits investigation. There is a need to better highlight the variability in the pandemic trajectories in different geographic areas. By using openly available data from 'GitHub' COVID-19 dataset for Europe and from the official dataset of France for the period 2020 to 2021, I present the three COVID-19 waves in France and Europe in maps. The epidemic trends across areas display different evolutions for different time periods. National and European public health authorities will be able to improve allocation of resources for more effective public health measures based on geo-epidemiological analyses.

Spatio-Temporal Variability of Malaria Incidence in the Health District of Kati, Mali, 2015-2019.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the implementation of control strategies at the national scale, the malaria burden remains high in Mali, with more than 2.8 million cases reported in 2019. In this context, a new approach is needed, which accounts for the spatio-temporal variability of malaria transmission at the local scale. This study aimed to describe the spatio-temporal variability of malaria incidence and the associated meteorological and environmental factors in the health district of Kati, Mali. METHODS: Daily malaria cases were collected from the consultation records of the 35 health areas of Kati's health district, for the period 2015-2019. Data on rainfall, relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, the normalized difference vegetation index, air pressure, and land use-land cover were extracted from open-access remote sensing sources, while data on the Niger River's height and flow were obtained from the National Department of Hydraulics. To reduce the dimension and account for collinearity, strongly correlated meteorological and environmental variables were combined into synthetic indicators (SI), using a principal component analysis. A generalized additive model was built to determine the lag and the relationship between the main SIs and malaria incidence. The transmission periods were determined using a change-point analysis. High-risk clusters (hotspots) were detected using the SatScan method and were ranked according to risk level, using a classification and regression tree analysis. RESULTS: The peak of the malaria incidence generally occurred in October. Peak incidence decreased from 60 cases per 1000 person-weeks in 2015, to 27 cases per 1000 person-weeks in 2019. The relationship between the first SI (river flow and height, relative humidity, and rainfall) and malaria incidence was positive and almost linear. A non-linear relationship was found between the second SI (air pressure and temperature) and malaria incidence. Two transmission periods were determined per year: a low transmission period from January to July-corresponding to a persisting transmission during the dry season-and a high transmission period from July to December. The spatial distribution of malaria hotspots varied according to the transmission period. DISCUSSION: Our study confirmed the important variability of malaria incidence and found malaria transmission to be associated with several meteorological and environmental factors in the Kati district. The persistence of malaria during the dry season and the spatio-temporal variability of malaria hotspots reinforce the need for innovative and targeted strategies.

The association between ambient UVB dose and ANCA-associated vasculitis relapse and onset.

BACKGROUND: The aetiology of ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) and triggers of relapse are poorly understood. Vitamin D (vitD) is an important immunomodulator, potentially responsible for the observed latitudinal differences between granulomatous and non-granulomatous AAV phenotypes. A narrow ultraviolet B spectrum induces vitD synthesis (vitD-UVB) via the skin. We hypothesised that prolonged periods of low ambient UVB (and by extension vitD deficiency) are associated with the granulomatous form of the disease and an increased risk of AAV relapse. METHODS: Patients with AAV recruited to the Irish Rare Kidney Disease (RKD) (n = 439) and UKIVAS (n = 1961) registries were studied. Exposure variables comprised latitude and measures of ambient vitD-UVB, including cumulative weighted UVB dose (CW-D-UVB), a well-validated vitD proxy. An n-of-1 study design was used to examine the relapse risk using only the RKD dataset. Multi-level models and logistic regression were used to examine the effect of predictors on AAV relapse risk, phenotype and serotype. RESULTS: Residential latitude was positively correlated (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.14-1.74, p = 0.002) and average vitD-UVB negatively correlated (0.82, 0.70-0.99, p = 0.04) with relapse risk, with a stronger effect when restricting to winter measurements (0.71, 0.57-0.89, p = 0.002). However, these associations were not restricted to granulomatous phenotypes. We observed no clear relationship between latitude, vitD-UVB or CW-D-UVB and AAV phenotype or serotype. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that low winter ambient UVB and prolonged vitD status contribute to AAV relapse risk across all phenotypes. However, the development of a granulomatous phenotype does not appear to be directly vitD-mediated. Further research is needed to determine whether sufficient vitD status would reduce relapse propensity in AAV.

Urban landscape and infection risk in free-roaming cats.

Despite public concern on the role of free-roaming cats as reservoirs of zoonotic agents, little is known about the influence of urban and peri-urban landscapes on the exposure risk. We evaluated the seroprevalence of three zoonotic agents (Chlamydia felis, Coxiella burnetii and Toxoplasma gondii) in domestic cats (Felis catus). Two hundred and ninety-one free-roaming cats were trapped in Murcia municipality (Southeast Spain), and their sera were tested for specific antibodies against T. gondii using a modified agglutination test (MAT), and for C. felis, C. burnetii and feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) antibodies with ELISA technique. Pathogen seroprevalence at 95% CI was calculated for each sex and age category (up to and over 12 months) and compared with a chi-squared test. The role of human population density and urban landscape characteristics on the risk of pathogen exposure in the cat population was explored using generalized linear models. Seropositivity against a single pathogen was found in 60% of the cats, while 19% was seropositive for two or three pathogens. Seroprevalence of C. felis was 8% (CI95% : 5-11), 37% (CI95% : 31-42) for C. burnetii and 42% (CI95% : 36-47) for T. gondii. In addition to these three pathogens, FIV seropositivity was low (1%, CI95% : -0.1 to 2) and adult cats were more likely to be seropositive to C. burnetii than young individuals (OR: 2.3, CI95% : 1.2-4.2). No sex or age class differences in seroprevalence were observed for the rest of the pathogens. Seropositivity was correlated with water surface areas for C. felis, and not with crop areas. Coxiella burnetii seropositivity was correlated with the percentage of urban areas (continuous with only buildings and discontinuous, that include buildings, parks, and pedestrian and urban green areas), human population size and peri-urban areas with shrubs, and not correlated with other agricultural landscapes (orchards and crop areas). However, the seroprevalence of T. gondii was only associated with agricultural landscapes such as orchards. The detection of hotspot areas of high pathogen exposure risk is the basis for municipal services to implement surveillance and risk factor control campaigns in specific-risk areas, including (a) efficient health management of urban cat colonies by geographical location, population census and health status monitoring of the components of each cat colony, (b) improvement of hygiene and sanitary conditions at the feeding points of the cat colony and (c) free-roaming cat trapping for health monitoring and, in the long term, to know the evolution of the health status of their populations.

Heterogeneity of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States of America: A Geo-Epidemiological Perspective.

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has shown great heterogeneity between regions of countries, e. g., in the United States of America (USA). With the growing of the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, there is a need to better highlight the variability in the trajectory of this disease in different worldwide geographic areas. Indeed, the epidemic trends across areas can display completely different evolution at a given time. Geo-epidemiological analyses using data, that are publicly available, could be a major topic to help governments and public administrations to implement health policies. Geo-epidemiological analyses could provide a basis for the implementation of relevant public health policies. With the COVID-19 pandemic, geo-epidemiological analyses can be readily utilized by policy interventions and USA public health authorities to highlight geographic areas of particular concern and enhance the allocation of resources.

Test positivity - Evaluation of a new metric to assess epidemic dispersal mediated by non-symptomatic cases.

Epidemic control may be hampered when the percentage of asymptomatic cases is high. Seeking remedies for this problem, test positivity was explored between the first 60 to 90 epidemic days in six countries that reported their first COVID-19 case between February and March 2020: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, and Uruguay. Test positivity (TP) is the percentage of test-positive individuals reported on a given day out of all individuals tested the same day. To generate both country-specific and multi-country information, this study was implemented in two stages. First, the epidemiologic data of the country infected last (Uruguay) were analyzed. If at least one TP-related analysis yielded a statistically significant relationship, later assessments would investigate the six countries. The Uruguayan data indicated (i) a positive correlation between daily TP and daily new cases (r = 0.75); (ii) a negative correlation between TP and the number of tests conducted per million inhabitants (TPMI, r = -0.66); and (iii) three temporal stages, which differed from one another in both TP and TPMI medians (p < 0.01) and, together, revealed a negative relationship between TPMI and TP. No significant relationship was found between TP and the number of active or recovered patients. The six countries showed a positive correlation between TP and the number of deaths/million inhabitants (DMI, r = 0.65, p < 0.01). With one exception -a country where isolation was not pursued-, all countries showed a negative correlation between TP and TPMI (r = 0.74). The temporal analysis of country-specific policies revealed four patterns, characterized by: (1) low TPMI and high DMI, (2) high TPMI and low DMI; (3) an intermediate pattern, and (4) high TPMI and high DMI. Findings support the hypothesis that test positivity may guide epidemiologic policy-making, provided that policy-related factors are considered and high-resolution geographical data are utilized.

Geo-epidemiology and environmental co-variate mapping of primary biliary cholangitis and primary sclerosing cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Autoimmune liver disease (AILD) is thought to result from a complex interplay between genetics and the environment. Studies to date have focussed on primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and demonstrated higher disease prevalence in more urban, polluted, and socially deprived areas. This study utilises a large cohort of patients with PBC and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) to investigate potential environmental contributors to disease and to explore whether the geo-epidemiology of PBC and PSC are disease-specific or pertain to cholestatic AILD in general. METHODS: All adult patients with PBC and PSC in a tightly defined geographical area within the UK were identified. Point- and area-based analyses and structural equation modelling (SEM) were used to investigate for disease clustering and examine for relationships between prevalence, distribution of environmental contaminants, and socio-economic status. RESULTS: We identified 2,150 patients with PBC and 472 with PSC. Significant spatial clustering was seen for each disease. A high prevalence of PBC was found in urban, post-industrial areas with a strong coal-mining heritage and increased environmental cadmium levels, whereas a high PSC prevalence was found in rural areas and inversely associated with social deprivation. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates spatial clustering of PBC and PSC and adds to our understanding of potential environmental co-variates for both diseases. Disease clustering, within the same geographical area but over different scales, is confirmed for each disease with distinct risk profiles identified and associations with separate putative environmental factors and socio-economic status. This suggests that different triggers and alternative pathways determine phenotypic expression of autoimmunity in the affected population. Co-variate analysis points towards the existence of specific disease triggers. LAY SUMMARY: This study looked for potential environmental triggers in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) living in the north-east of England and north Cumbria. We found that PBC was more common in urban areas with a history of coal mining and high levels of cadmium whereas PSC was more common in rural areas with lower levels of social deprivation.

Environmental risk factors associated with ANCA associated vasculitis: A systematic mapping review.

BACKGROUND: Anti-neutrophil cytoplasm antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) is a rare multi-system autoimmune disease, characterised by a pauci-immune necrotising small-vessel vasculitis, with a relapsing and remitting course. Like many autoimmune diseases, the exact aetiology of AAV, and the factors that influence relapse are unknown. Evidence suggests a complex interaction of polygenic genetic susceptibility, epigenetic influences and environmental triggers. This systematic mapping review focuses on the environmental risk factors associated with AAV. The aim was to identify gaps in the literature, thus informing further research. METHODS: Articles that examined any environmental risk factor in AAV disease activity (new onset disease or relapse) were included. Studies had to make explicit reference to AAV, which includes the 3 clinico-pathological phenotypes (GPA, MPA and EGPA), rather than isolated ANCA-positivity. All articles identified were English-language, full manuscripts involving adult humans (>16 years). There was no restriction on publication date and all study designs, except single case reports, were included. The systematic search was performed on 9th December 2019, using the following databases: EMBASE, Medline (Ovid), Cochrane Library, CINAHL and Web of Science. RESULTS: The search yielded a total of 2375 articles. 307 duplicates were removed, resulting in the title and abstract of 2068 articles for screening. Of these, 1809 were excluded. Thus, 259 remained for full-text review, of which 181 were excluded. 78 articles were included in this review. The most notable findings support the role of various pollutants - primarily silica and other environmental antigens released during natural disasters and through farming. Assorted geoepidemiological triggers were also identified including seasonality and latitude-dependent factors such as UV radiation. Finally, infection was tightly associated, but the exact microorganism(s) is not clear - Staphylococcus aureus is the most presently convincing. CONCLUSION: The precise aetiology of AAV has yet to be elucidated. It is likely that different triggers, and the degree to which they influence disease activity, vary by subgroup (e.g. ANCA subtype, geographic region). There is a need for more interoperable disease registries to facilitate international collaboration and hence large-scale epidemiological studies, with novel analytical techniques.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of Malaria Incidence: A Comparison of Two Ecological Zones in Mali.

Malaria transmission largely depends on environmental, climatic, and hydrological conditions. In Mali, malaria epidemiological patterns are nested within three ecological zones. This study aimed at assessing the relationship between those conditions and the incidence of malaria in Dangassa and Koila, Mali. Malaria data was collected through passive case detection at community health facilities of each study site from June 2015 to January 2017. Climate and environmental data were obtained over the same time period from the Goddard Earth Sciences (Giovanni) platform and hydrological data from Mali hydraulic services. A generalized additive model was used to determine the lagged time between each principal component analysis derived component and the incidence of malaria cases, and also used to analyze the relationship between malaria and the lagged components in a multivariate approach. Malaria transmission patterns were bimodal at both sites, but peak and lull periods were longer lasting for Koila study site. Temperatures were associated with malaria incidence in both sites. In Dangassa, the wind speed (p = 0.005) and river heights (p = 0.010) contributed to increasing malaria incidence, in contrast to Koila, where it was humidity (p < 0.001) and vegetation (p = 0.004). The relationships between environmental factors and malaria incidence differed between the two settings, implying different malaria dynamics and adjustments in the conception and plan of interventions.

How to Estimate Optimal Malaria Readiness Indicators at Health-District Level: Findings from the Burkina Faso Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) Data.

One of the major contributors of malaria-related deaths in Sub-Saharan African countries is the limited accessibility to quality care. In these countries, malaria control activities are implemented at the health-district level (operational entity of the national health system), while malaria readiness indicators are regionally representative. This study provides an approach for estimating health district-level malaria readiness indicators from survey data designed to provide regionally representative estimates. A binomial-hierarchical Bayesian spatial prediction method was applied to Burkina Faso Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) survey data to provide estimates of essential equipment availability and readiness for malaria care. Predicted values of each indicator were adjusted by the type of health facility, location, and population density. Then, a health district composite readiness profile was built via hierarchical ascendant classification. All surveyed health-facilities were mandated by the Ministry of Health to manage malaria cases. The spatial distribution of essential equipment and malaria readiness was heterogeneous. Around 62.9% of health districts had a high level of readiness to provide malaria care and prevention during pregnancy. Low-performance scores for managing malaria cases were found in big cities. Health districts with low coverage for both first-line antimalarial drugs and rapid diagnostic tests were Baskuy, Bogodogo, Boulmiougou, Nongr-Massoum, Sig-Nonghin, Dafra, and Do. We provide health district estimates and reveal gaps in basic equipment and malaria management resources in some districts that need to be filled. By providing local-scale estimates, this approach could be replicated for other types of indicators to inform decision makers and health program managers and to identify priority areas.

Geo-Epidemiology of Malaria at the Health Area Level, Dire Health District, Mali, 2013-2017.

Background: According to the World Health Organization, there were more than 228 million cases of malaria globally in 2018, with 93% of cases occurring in Africa; in Mali, a 13% increase in the number of cases was observed between 2015 and 2018; this study aimed to evaluate the impact of meteorological and environmental factors on the geo-epidemiology of malaria in the health district of Dire, Mali. Methods: Meteorological and environmental variables were synthesized using principal component analysis and multiple correspondence analysis, the relationship between malaria incidence and synthetic indicators was determined using a multivariate general additive model; hotspots were detected by SaTScan. Results: Malaria incidence showed high inter and intra-annual variability; the period of high transmission lasted from September to February; health areas characterized by proximity to the river, propensity for flooding and high agricultural yield were the most at risk, with an incidence rate ratio of 2.21 with confidence intervals (95% CI: 1.85-2.58); malaria incidence in Dire declined from 120 to 20 cases per 10,000 person-weeks between 2013 and 2017. Conclusion: The identification of areas and periods of high transmission can help improve malaria control strategies.

Where and when to vaccinate? Interdisciplinary design and evaluation of the 2018 Tanzanian anti-rabies campaign.

OBJECTIVES: Hoping to improve health-related effectiveness, a two-phase vaccination against rabies was designed and executed in northern Tanzania in 2018, which included geo-epidemiological and economic perspectives. METHODS: Considering the local bio-geography and attempting to rapidly establish a protective ring around a city at risk, the first phase intervened on sites surrounding that city, where the population density was lower than in the city at risk. The second phase vaccinated a rural area. RESULTS: No rabies-related case has been reported in the vaccinated areas for over a year post-immunisation; hence, the campaign is viewed as highly cost-effective. Other metrics included: rapid implementation (concluded in half the time spent on other campaigns) and the estimated cost per protected life, which was 3.28 times lower than in similar vaccinations. CONCLUSIONS: The adopted design emphasised local bio-geographical dynamics: it prevented the occurrence of an epidemic in a city with a higher demographic density than its surrounding area and it also achieved greater effectiveness than average interventions. These interdisciplinary, policy-oriented experiences have broad and immediate applications in settings of limited and/or time-sensitive (expertise, personnel, and time available to intervene) resources and conditions.

Geoepidemiology and clinical characteristics of neonatal lupus erythematosus: a systematic literature review of individual patients' data

Background/aim: Neonatal lupus erythematosus (NLE) is an autoimmune syndrome caused by transplacental transmission of maternal autoantibodies, often with devastating consequences. The objective of this systematic literature review was to analyze the demographic data, geoepidemiology, clinical, and serological characteristics associated with NLE. Materials and methods: We performed a systematic literature search of the Pubmed database covering the period from 1976 to August 2015, using the MeSH terms "neonatal lupus" or "congenital heart block". To be included in the study, articles of any type (original articles, case series, and case reports) had to report on infants with NLE on an individualized (i.e. patient-by-patient) basis. Results: A total of198 studies were included in the review, reporting on a total of 755 NLE patients. The most frequently reported clinical manifestations of NLE were congenital heart block (CHB, 65.2%), cutaneous lupus (33.1%), and cytopenias (15.5%). We found differences in NLE characteristics based on study geographical origin, with CHB being much more frequent in patients of European or American descent (49.4% and 35%, respectively), while reports originating from Asia reported a higher prevalence of skin involvement (45.2%). Most CHB cases (72.9%) were diagnosed between the 18th and 26th week of gestation. Conclusions: Phenotypic differences of NLE depending on race and country may reflect true pathophysiologic differences or methodologic discrepancies. While maternal autoimmune disease is not a prerequisite for the development of NLE, the existence of a truly "immunonegative" CHB is questionable.