Global access and quality of conservative kidney management.

BACKGROUND: Conservative kidney management (CKM) describes supportive care for people living with kidney failure who choose not to receive or are unable to access kidney replacement therapy (KRT). This study captured the global availability of CKM services and funding. METHODS: Data came from the International Society of Nephrology Global Kidney Health survey conducted between June and September 2022. Availability of CKM, infrastructure, guidelines, medications and training were evaluated. RESULTS: CKM was available in some form in 61% of the 165 responding countries. CKM chosen through shared decision-making was available in 53%. Choice-restricted CKM-for those unable to access KRT-was available in 39%. Infrastructure to provide CKM chosen through shared decision-making was associated with national income level, reported as being "generally available" in most healthcare settings for 71% of high-income countries, 50% of upper-middle-income countries, 33% of lower-middle-income countries and 42% of low-income countries. For choice-restricted CKM, these figures were 29%, 50%, 67% and 58%, respectively. Essential medications for pain and palliative care were available in just over half of the countries, highly dependent upon income setting. Training for caregivers in symptom management in CKM was available in approximately a third of countries. CONCLUSIONS: Most countries report some capacity for CKM. However, there is considerable variability in terms of how CKM is defined, as well as what and how much care is provided. Poor access to CKM perpetuates unmet palliative care needs, and must be addressed, particularly in low-resource settings where death from untreated kidney failure is common.

Maternal outcomes and pre, syn, and post-partum care in the united states and five high-income countries: An exploratory comparative qualitative study.

Many studies have documented differences in maternal health outcomes across high-income countries, noting higher and growing maternal mortality in the US. However, few studies have detailed the journeys of care that may underlie or influence differences in outcomes. This study explores how maternity care entitlements and experiences vary among the US and five high-income countries, to study variations in child delivery care practices. Health systems with different organizational structure, insurance coverage and with known differences in maternal care delivery and maternal health outcomes were selected. Data was collected using a structured questionnaire, comparison of secondary data, and literature scan. We find that, while prenatal care approaches were broadly similar across all six countries, there were some important differences in maternity care provision among the comparator countries: (1) the US has more fragmented coverage during pregnancy than comparator countries (2) there were differences with regards to the main provider delivering care, the US relied primarily on physician specialists rather than midwives for prenatal care and delivery which was more common in other countries, (3) the intensity of labor and delivery care varied, particularly with regards to rates of epidural use which were highest in the US and France and lowest in Japan, and (4), there was large variation in the use of postnatal home visits to assess health and wellbeing, notably lacking in the US. The US' greater use of specialists and more intensive labor and delivery care may partially explain higher costs of care than in comparator countries. Moreover, US maternal mortality is concentrated in the pre- and postnatal periods and thus may be related to poorer access to prenatal care and the lack of an organized, community-based approach to postnatal care. Given the increase in maternal mortality across countries, policy makers should look across countries to identify promising models of care delivery, and should consider investing in more comprehensive coverage in pre- and postnatal care.

A new roadmap for an age-inclusive workforce management practice and an international policies comparison.

Background: Worldwide, the worker population age is growing at an increasing rate. Consequently, government institutions and companies are being tasked to find new ways to address age-related workforce management challenges and opportunities. The development of age-friendly working environments to enhance ageing workforce inclusion and diversity has become a current management and national policy imperative. Since an ageing workforce population is a spreading worldwide trend, an identification and analysis of worker age related best practices across different countries would help the development of novel palliative paradigms and initiatives. Methods: This study proposes a new systematic research-based roadmap that aims to support executives and administrators in implementing an age-inclusive workforce management program. The roadmap integrates and builds on published literature, best practices, and international policies and initiatives that were identified, collected, and analysed by the authors. The roadmap provides a critical comparison of age-inclusive management practices and policies at three different levels of intervention: international, country, and company. Data collection and analysis was conducted simultaneously across eight countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Slovenia, and the USA. Results and conclusions: The findings of this research guide the development of a framework and roadmap to help manage the challenges and opportunities of an ageing workforce in moving towards a more sustainable, inclusive, and resilient labour force.

Variation in processes of care for total hip arthroplasty across high-income countries.

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is among the most commonly performed elective surgeries in high-income countries, and wait times for THA have frequently been cited by US commentators as evidence that countries with universal insurance programs or national health systems "ration" care. This novel qualitative study explores processes of care for hip replacement in the United States and 6 high-income countries with a focus on eligibility, wait times, decision-making, postoperative care, and payment policies. We found no evidence of rationing or government interference in decision-making across high-income countries. Compared with the 6 other high-income countries in our study, the United States has developed efficient care processes that often allow for a same-day discharge. In contrast, THA patients in Germany stay in the hospital 7-9 days and receive 2-3 weeks of inpatient rehabilitation. However, the payment per THA in the United States remains far above other countries, despite far fewer inpatient days.

Cross-country comparisons in health price growth over time.

OBJECTIVE: To examine how the United States compares in terms of health price growth relative to four other countries - Australia, Canada, France, and the Netherlands. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING: Secondary data on health expenditure were extracted from international and national agencies spanning the years 2000-2020. STUDY DESIGN: International price indices specific to health were constructed using available international expenditure data and compared to existing health-specific national and general international price indices. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Health expenditure data were extracted from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) database. We obtained a time series of health price indices from the national agencies in each of the study countries. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We find meaningful variation across countries in the rate at which health prices grow relative to general prices. The United States had the highest cumulative health price growth compared to general price growth over the years 2000-2020 at 14%, followed by Canada and the Netherlands. Unlike the other study countries, health prices in France grew consistently in line with general prices. Price growth for health care paid for by public funds and households grew at different rates across countries, where price growth was higher for public payers. US households faced the greatest mean annual price growth. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of price index has major implications for comparative analysis. Despite their widespread use internationally, general price indices likely underestimate the contribution of price growth to overall health expenditure growth. We find that in addition to its reputation for having high health price levels compared to other high-income countries, the United States also faces health price growth for goods and services paid for by government and households in excess of general price growth. Furthermore, US households are exposed to greater health price growth than households in comparator countries.

Food Insecurity and Social Policy: A Comparative Analysis of Welfare State Regimes in 19 Countries.

We sought to determine whether a country's social policy configuration-its welfare state regime-is associated with food insecurity risk. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 2017 U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization individual-level food insecurity survey data from 19 countries (the most recent data available prior to COVID-19). Countries were categorized into three welfare state regimes: liberal (e.g., the United States), corporatist (e.g., Germany), or social democratic (e.g., Norway). Food insecurity probability, calibrated to an international reference standard, was calculated using a Rasch model. We used linear regression to compare food insecurity probability across regime types, adjusting for per-capita gross domestic product, age, gender, education, and household composition. There were 19,008 participants. The mean food insecurity probability was 0.067 (SD: 0.217). In adjusted analyses and compared with liberal regimes, food insecurity probability was lower in corporatist (risk difference: -0.039, 95% CI -0.066 to -0.011, p = .006) and social democratic regimes (risk difference: -0.037, 95% CI -0.062 to -0.012, p = .004). Social policy configuration is strongly associated with food insecurity risk. Social policy changes may help lower food insecurity risk in countries with high risk.

Exploring the association between primary care efficiency and health system characteristics across European countries: a two-stage data envelopment analysis.

BACKGROUND: Primary care is widely seen as a core component of resilient and sustainable health systems, yet its efficiency is not well understood and there is a lack of evidence about how primary care efficiency is associated with health system characteristics. We examine this issue through the lens of diabetes care, which has a well-established evidence base for effective treatment and has previously been used as a tracer condition to measure health system performance. METHODS: We developed a conceptual framework to guide the analysis of primary care efficiency. Using data on 18 European countries during 2010-2016 from several international databases, we applied a two-stage data envelopment analysis to estimate (i) technical efficiency of primary care and (ii) the association between efficiency and health system characteristics. RESULTS: Countries varied widely in terms of primary care efficiency, with efficiency scores depending on the range of population characteristics adjusted for. Higher efficiency was associated with bonus payments for the prevention and management of chronic conditions, nurse-led follow-up, and a financial incentive or requirement for patients to obtain a referral to specialist care. Conversely, lower efficiency was associated with higher rates of curative care beds and financial incentives for patients to register with a primary care provider. CONCLUSIONS: Our results underline the importance of considering differences in population characteristics when comparing country performance on primary care efficiency. We highlight several policies that could enhance the efficiency of primary care. Improvements in data collection would enable more comprehensive assessments of primary care efficiency across countries, which in turn could more effectively inform policymaking.

A comparison of COVID-19 incidence rates across six European countries in 2021.

International comparisons of COVID-19 incidence rates have helped gain insights into the characteristics of the disease, benchmark disease impact, shape public health measures and inform potential travel restrictions and border control measures. However, these comparisons may be biased by differences in COVID-19 surveillance systems and approaches to reporting in each country. To better understand these differences and their impact on incidence comparisons, we collected data on surveillance systems from six European countries: Belgium, England, France, Italy, Romania and Sweden. Data collected included: target testing populations, access to testing, case definitions, data entry and management and statistical approaches to incidence calculation. Average testing, incidence and contextual data were also collected. Data represented the surveillance systems as they were in mid-May 2021. Overall, important differences between surveillance systems were detected. Results showed wide variations in testing rates, access to free testing and the types of tests recorded in national databases, which may substantially limit incidence comparability. By systematically including testing information when comparing incidence rates, these comparisons may be greatly improved. New indicators incorporating testing or existing indicators such as death or hospitalisation will be important to improving international comparisons.

Health systems in the mirror of international comparisons.

The international comparison of health systems is a frequently used tool of health policy. It assumes that international experiences are, at least to some extent, transferable from one country to another. The aim of this article is to review selected methods of international comparison of health systems. At the same time, we ask the question of how useful each method is for the evaluation of the Czech health system.

The Recent Dangers for European Happiness: Is Homeostatic Resilience Sufficient?

In the literature on life satisfaction the author came across the hypothesis that happiness oscillates around a set point given by nurture and nature. This assumption implicitly supposes a homeostatic mechanism, which implies resilience against unhappiness. The present paper aims at the exploration and quantitative description of this resilience at the national level, which may be challenged by military conflicts, pandemics, energy crises, etc. In particular, the researcher would like to know, for which European countries the postulated resilience really exists, where the related national set points are, and whether there are limits of unhappiness below which the homeostatic set points cannot be reached anymore. In order to tackle these research questions, country-specific time series of annual happiness between 2007 and 2019 are analyzed by linear and quadratic regressions, where the current national happiness is the independent and the related following level of happiness the dependent variable. By analyzing the resulting regression equations, it is possible to identify and analyze its mathematical fixed points. Depending on whether they are stable or not, they are either homeostatic set points (equilibria) or critical limits, where homeostasis is destroyed. The present empirical analysis reveals that more than 50% of the analyzed European countries have no homeostasis of happiness. Consequently, these countries are psychologically vulnerable with regard to depressing developments like energy crises or pandemics. The remaining cases do often not display the classical form of homeostasis: they have either a shifting set point or only a narrow range, within which the homeostasis of happiness is maintained. Thus, there are only a few European countries with unlimited resilience against unhappiness and a set point that is stable over time.

Missing Americans: Early death in the United States-1933-2021.

We assessed how many US deaths would have been averted each year, 1933-2021, if US age-specific mortality rates had equaled the average of 21 other wealthy nations. We refer to these excess US deaths as "missing Americans." The United States had lower mortality rates than peer countries in the 1930s-1950s and similar mortality in the 1960s and 1970s. Beginning in the 1980s, however, the United States began experiencing a steady increase in the number of missing Americans, reaching 622,534 in 2019 alone. Excess US deaths surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 1,009,467 in 2020 and 1,090,103 in 2021. Excess US mortality was particularly pronounced for persons under 65 years. In 2020 and 2021, half of all US deaths under 65 years and 90% of the increase in under-65 mortality from 2019 to 2021 would have been avoided if the United States had the mortality rates of its peers. In 2021, there were 26.4 million years of life lost due to excess US mortality relative to peer nations, and 49% of all missing Americans died before age 65. Black and Native Americans made up a disproportionate share of excess US deaths, although the majority of missing Americans were White.

Why the US spends more treating high-need high-cost patients: a comparative study of pricing and utilization of care in six high-income countries.

One of the most pressing challenges facing most health care systems is rising costs. As the population ages and the demand for health care services grows, there is a growing need to understand the drivers of these costs across systems. This paper attempts to address this gap by examining utilization and spending of the course of a year for two specific high-need high-cost patient types: a frail older person with a hip fracture and an older person with congestive heart failure and diabetes. Data on utilization and expenditure is collected across five health care settings (hospital, post-acute rehabilitation, primary care, outpatient specialty and drugs), in six countries (Canada (Ontario), France, Germany, Spain (Aragon), Sweden and the United States (fee for service Medicare) and used to construct treatment episode Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) that compare prices using baskets of goods from the different care settings. The treatment episode PPPs suggest other countries have more similar volumes of care to the US as compared to other standardization approaches, suggesting that US prices account for more of the differential in US health care expenditures. The US also differs with regards to the share of expenditures across care settings, with post-acute rehab and outpatient speciality expenditures accounting for a larger share of the total relative to comparators.

Primary Care Visits in the USA and Australia 2000-2016.

BACKGROUND: There are major concerns about the sustainability of the US primary care (PC) system. OBJECTIVE: We use similar data from the USA and Australia on adult visits to primary care physicians to examine how primary care service delivery and content in the countries have changed since the year 2001. DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Longitudinal analyses of nationally representative data collected in a similar manner on outpatient visits to PC in the USA (National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, NAMCS) and Australia (Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health, BEACH), 2001-2016. MAIN MEASURES: For each visit, we ascertained the problems/diagnoses managed; the length of the visit in minutes; what medications were recorded; whether counseling, advice, or education was provided; the rate of imaging and diagnostics tests; the laboratory tests ordered; and whether the visit resulted in a referral to another physician. KEY RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2016, there were 128,770 encounters with adult patients in NAMCS and 1,338,963 in BEACH. In the USA, the proportion of encounters with 3 or more problems managed increased from 28.7 to 54.8% whereas Australia started at a lower proportion (10.6%) and increased to just 14.1%. Visit times in the USA increased from 17.2 min in 2001 to 22.9 min in 2016 as compared to 14.4 min increasing to 15.2 in Australia. There were significantly more medications recorded over time in NAMCS than BEACH (2.02 in 2001 to 3.32 in 2016, USA, and 1.10 and 1.04, Australia), and US encounters resulted in imaging studies, lab tests, or referrals with relatively increasing frequency. CONCLUSION: Relative to Australia, PC visits in the USA increasingly entail more complexity with visits that have grown comparatively longer over time, with more problems addressed, and with more content.

Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: Analysis of individual records for 67,776 children diagnosed in 61 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3).

INTRODUCTION: Tumors of the central nervous system are among the leading causes of cancer-related death in children. Population-based cancer survival reflects the overall effectiveness of a health care system in managing cancer. Inequity in access to care world-wide may result in survival disparities. METHODS: We considered children (0-14 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a rigorous, three-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We implemented a revised version of the International Classification of Childhood Cancer (third edition) to control for under-registration of non-malignant astrocytic tumors. We estimated net survival using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator. RESULTS: The study included 67,776 children. We estimated survival for 12 histology groups, each based on relevant ICD-O-3 codes. Age-standardized 5-year net survival for low-grade astrocytoma ranged between 84% and 100% world-wide during 2000-2014. In most countries, 5-year survival was 90% or more during 2000-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014. Global variation in survival for medulloblastoma was much wider, with age-standardized 5-year net survival between 47% and 86% for children diagnosed during 2010-2014. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors in children, by histology. We devised an enhanced version of ICCC-3 to account for differences in cancer registration practices world-wide. Our findings may have public health implications, because low-grade glioma is 1 of the 6 index childhood cancers included by WHO in the Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer.

Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3).

BACKGROUND: Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology. METHODS: We analyzed individual data for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator. RESULTS: The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010-2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%-38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40-70 years than among younger adults. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines.

Understanding International Variations in Kidney Failure Incidence and Initiation of Replacement Therapy.

Introduction: Incidence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) varies widely across countries. Its relations to individual characteristics, nephrology practices for slowing chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, and KRT access remain unclear. Methods: We investigated intercountry differences in kidney failure (KF) rate, defined by a sustained estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2, and separately in KRT incidence, before and after adjusting for risk factors and blood pressure (BP) control or renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) prescription practices in the CKD Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (CKDopps) cohort study. Results: Among 7381 patients with CKD stage 3 to 4 at enrollment, 1297 progressed to KF and 947 initiated KRT over a 3-year follow-up period. Compared to the United States, demographic-adjusted and eGFR-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) (HRs, 95% confidence intervals [CI]) for a sustained low eGFR were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.57-1.02) in Brazil, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.75-1.08) in France, and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.86-1.03) in Germany. Further adjustment for comorbidities, albuminuria, systolic BP, and RAASi prescription did not substantially change these HRs. In contrast, compared with the United States, the fully-adjusted HR for KRT remained significantly lower in Brazil (0.55, 95% CI 0.39-0.79), higher in Germany (95% CI, 1.36, 1.09-1.69), and similar in France (95% CI, 1.07, 0.81-1.39). Conclusion: Individual risk factors for CKD progression in nephrology patients appeared to explain most intercountry variations in KF but not KRT incidence. This suggests a prominent role for differences in practices related to KRT initiation or access, but not those for slowing disease progression. This study also shows that using KRT as a KF surrogate may bias estimates of associations with CKD progression risk factors.

Spillover effects and other determinants of medical device uptake in the presence of a medical guideline: An analysis of drug-eluting stents in Germany and Italy.

We investigated the role of spillover effects among hospitals in the diffusion of drug-eluting stents (DES) in Germany and Italy during a period in which the relevant medical guideline clearly recommended their use over bare-metal stents. We used administrative data of hospitalized patients treated with ST-elevation myocardial infarction from 2012 to 2016 to estimate spatial panel models allowing for global spillover effects. We used an inverse-distance weights matrix to capture the geographical proximity between neighboring hospitals and assigned a lower weight to more distant neighbors. For both countries, we found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in most years based on the global Moran's I test, and a significant, positive spatial lag parameter across model specifications, indicating positive spillover effects among neighboring hospitals. We found that private for-profit hospital ownership and hospital competition in Germany and the number of inpatient cases with circulatory system diseases in Italy were other significant determinants of DES adoption. Our results underline the importance of spillover effects among peers for the diffusion of medical devices even in the presence of a positive guideline recommendation. Policymakers might therefore consider promoting various forms of exchange and collaboration among medical staff and hospitals to ensure the appropriate use of medical technologies.

International comparison of injury care structures, processes, and outcomes between integrated trauma systems in Québec, Canada, and Victoria, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Quality improvement activities in trauma systems are widely based on comparisons between trauma centers within the same system. Comparisons across different trauma systems may reveal further opportunities for quality improvement. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to compare the integrated trauma systems in Québec, Canada and in Victoria, Australia, regarding their structures, care processes and patient outcomes. METHODOLOGY: The elements recommended by the American College of Surgeons were used to compare trauma systems structures. Comparisons of care processes and patient outcomes were based on data from major trauma admissions extracted from trauma registries (2013 and 2017). Care processes included time to reach a definitive care facility, time spent in the emergency department, and time lapsed before the first head computed tomography (CT) scan. These care processes were compared using a z-test of log-transformed times. Hospital mortality and hospital length of stay (LOS) were compared using indirect standardization based on multiple logistic and linear regression. RESULTS: Major differences in trauma system structure were Advanced Trauma Life Support at the scene of injury (Victoria), the use of validated prehospital triage tools (Québec), and mandatory accreditation of all trauma centers (Québec). Patients in Québec arrived at their definitive care hospital earlier than their counterparts in Victoria (median: 1.93 vs. 2.13 h, p = 0.002), but spent longer in the emergency department (median: 8.23 vs. 5.15 h, p<0.0001) and waited longer before having their first head CT (median: 1.90 vs. 1.52 h, p<0.0001). In-hospital mortality and hospital LOS were higher in Québec than in Victoria (standardized mortality ratio: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.09 - 1.20; standardized LOS ratio: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.09 - 1.11). CONCLUSION: We observed important differences in the structural components and care processes in Québec and Victoria's trauma systems, which might explain some of the observed differences in patient outcomes. This study shows the potential value of international comparisons in trauma care and identifies possible opportunities for quality improvement.

Changes in the rankings of leading causes of death in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 1998 to 2018: a comparison of three ranking lists.

BACKGROUND: The ranking lists used by most countries for leading causes of death (CODs) comprise broad category such as cancer, heart disease, and accidents. To provide more specific information, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) proposed lists that splitting broad categories into specific categories. We examined the changes in rankings of leading CODs according to different lists in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 1998 to 2018. METHODS: We obtained the number of deaths for three countries from the WHO mortality database for 1998, 2008, and 2018. Age-standardized death rates were calculated for rankings 10 leading CODs using WHO 2000 age structure as standard. RESULTS: The first leading COD was cancer in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 1998 to 2018 based on government list; nevertheless, became stroke based on WHO list, and was stroke and ischemic heart disease based on IHME list. In the WHO and IHME lists, cancer is categorized based on cancer site. The number of cancer sites included in the 10 leading CODs in 2018 was 4, 4, and 3 in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, respectively according to the WHO list and was 4, 4, and 2, respectively according to IHME list. The only difference was the rank of liver cancer in Taiwan, which was 6th according to WHO list and was 18th according to IHME list. The ranking and number of deaths for some CODs differed greatly between the WHO and IHME lists due to the reallocation of "garbage codes" into relevant specific COD in IHME list. CONCLUSIONS: Through the use of WHO and the IHME lists, the relative importance of several specific and avoidable causes could be revealed in 10 leading CODs, which could not be discerned if the government lists were used. The information is more relevant for health policy decision making.

A pragmatic method to compare international critical care beds: Implications to pandemic preparedness and non-pandemic planning.

BACKGROUND: The current method for assessing critical care (CCU) bed numbers between countries is unreliable. METHODS: A pragmatic method is presented using a logarithmic relationship between CCU beds per 1000 deaths and deaths per 1000 population, both of which are readily available. The method relies on the importance of the nearness to death effect, and on the effect of population size. RESULTS: The method was tested using CCU bed numbers from 65 countries. A series of logarithmic relationships can be seen. High versus low countries can be distinguished by adjusting all countries to a common crude mortality rate. Hence at 9.5 deaths per 1000 population 'high' CCU bed countries average of around 30 CCU beds per 1000 deaths, while 'very low' countries only average 3 CCU beds per 1000 deaths. The United Kingdom falls among countries with low critical care provision with an average of 8 CCU beds per 1000 deaths, and during the COVID-19 epidemic UK industry intervened to rapidly manufacture various types of ventilators to avoid a catastrophe. CCU bed numbers in India are around 8.1 per 1000 deaths, which places it in the low category. However, such beds are inequitably distributed with the poorest states all in the 'very low' category. In India only around 50% of CCU beds have a ventilator. CONCLUSION: A feasible region is defined for the optimum number of CCU beds.