Recent advances in Bayesian inference of isolation-with-migration models.

Isolation-with-migration (IM) models have become popular for explaining population divergence in the presence of migrations. Bayesian methods are commonly used to estimate IM models, but they are limited to small data analysis or simple model inference. Recently three methods, IMa3, MIST and AIM, resolved these limitations. Here, we describe the major problems addressed by these three software and compare differences among their inference methods, despite their use of the same standard likelihood function.

How strong was the bottleneck associated to the peopling of the Americas? New insights from multilocus sequence data

Abstract In spite of many genetic studies that contributed for a deep knowledge about the peopling of the Americas, no consensus has emerged about important parameters such as the effective size of the Native Americans founder population. Previous estimates based on genomic datasets may have been biased by the use of admixed individuals from Latino populations, while other recent studies using samples from Native American individuals relied on approximated analytical approaches. In this study we use resequencing data for nine independent regions in a set of Native American and Siberian individuals and a full-likelihood approach based on isolation-with-migration scenarios accounting for recent flow between Asian and Native American populations. Our results suggest that, in agreement with previous studies, the effective size of the Native American population was small, most likely in the order of a few hundred individuals, with point estimates close to 250 individuals, even though credible intervals include a number as large as ~4,000 individuals. Recognizing the size of the genetic bottleneck during the peopling of the Americas is important for determining the extent of genetic markers needed to characterize Native American populations in genome-wide studies and to evaluate the adaptive potential of genetic variants in this population.

Bayesian Analysis of Evolutionary Divergence with Genomic Data under Diverse Demographic Models.

We present a new Bayesian method for estimating demographic and phylogenetic history using population genomic data. Several key innovations are introduced that allow the study of diverse models within an Isolation-with-Migration framework. The new method implements a 2-step analysis, with an initial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) phase that samples simple coalescent trees, followed by the calculation of the joint posterior density for the parameters of a demographic model. In step 1, the MCMC sampling phase, the method uses a reduced state space, consisting of coalescent trees without migration paths, and a simple importance sampling distribution without the demography of interest. Once obtained, a single sample of trees can be used in step 2 to calculate the joint posterior density for model parameters under multiple diverse demographic models, without having to repeat MCMC runs. Because migration paths are not included in the state space of the MCMC phase, but rather are handled by analytic integration in step 2 of the analysis, the method is scalable to a large number of loci with excellent MCMC mixing properties. With an implementation of the new method in the computer program MIST, we demonstrate the method's accuracy, scalability, and other advantages using simulated data and DNA sequences of two common chimpanzee subspecies: Pan troglodytes (P. t.) troglodytes and P. t. verus.

Genetic divergence with ongoing gene flow is maintained by the use of different hosts in phytophagous ladybird beetles genus Henosepilachna.

Adaptation to different environments can promote population divergence via natural selection even in the presence of gene flow - a phenomenon that typically occurs during ecological speciation. To elucidate how natural selection promotes and maintains population divergence during speciation, we investigated the population genetic structure, degree of gene flow and heterogeneous genomic divergence in three closely related Japanese phytophagous ladybird beetles: Henosepilachna pustulosa, H. niponica and H. yasutomii. These species act as a generalist, a wild thistle (Cirsium spp.) specialist and a blue cohosh (Caulophyllum robustum) specialist, respectively, and their ranges differ accordingly. The two specialist species widely co-occur but are reproductively isolated solely due to their high specialization to a particular host plant. Genomewide amplified fragment-length polymorphism (AFLP) markers and mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene sequences demonstrated obvious genomewide divergence associated with both geographic distance and ecological divergence. However, a hybridization assessment for both AFLP loci and the mitochondrial sequences revealed a certain degree of unidirectional gene flow between the two sympatric specialist species. Principal coordinates analysis (PCoA) based on all of the variable AFLP loci demonstrated that there are genetic similarities between populations from adjacent localities irrespective of the species (i.e. host range). However, a further comparative genome scan identified a few fractions of loci representing approximately 1% of all loci as different host-associated outliers. These results suggest that these three species had a complex origin, which could be obscured by current gene flow, and that ecological divergence can be maintained with only a small fraction of the genome is related to different host use even when there is a certain degree of gene flow between sympatric species pairs.

Population demographic history of a temperate shrub, Rhododendron weyrichii (Ericaceae), on continental islands of Japan and South Korea.

Continental islands provide opportunities for testing the effects of isolation and migration on genetic variation in plant populations. In characteristic of continental islands is that the geographic connections between these islands, which are currently distinguished by seaways, have experienced fluctuations caused by sea-level changes due to climate oscillations during the Quaternary. Plant populations on the islands have migrated between these islands via the exposed seafloors or been isolated. Here, we examined the demographic history of a temperate shrub, Rhododendron weyrichii, which is distributed in the southwestern parts of the Japanese archipelago and on an island of South Korea, using statistical phylogeographic approaches based on the DNA sequences of two chloroplast and eight nuclear loci in samples analyzed from 18 populations on eight continental islands, and palaeodistribution modeling. Time estimates for four island populations indicate that the durations of vicariance history are different between these populations, and these events have continued since the last glacial or may have predated the last glacial. The constancy or expansion of population sizes on the Japanese islands, and in contrast a bottleneck in population size on the Korean island Jeju, suggests that these islands may have provided different conditions for sustaining populations. The result of palaeodistribution modeling indicates that the longitudinal range of the species as a whole has not changed greatly since the last glacial maximum. These results indicate that exposed seafloors during the glacial period formed both effective and ineffective migration corridors. These findings may shed light on the effects of seafloor exposure on the migration of plants distributed across continental islands.

Lineage isolation in the face of active gene flow in the coastal plant wild radish is reinforced by differentiated vernalisation responses.

BACKGROUND: The respective role and relative importance of natural selection and gene flow in the process of population divergence has been a central theme in the speciation literature. A previous study presented conclusive evidence that wild radish on Japanese islands comprises two genetically isolated lineages: the southern and northern groups. However, a general understanding of the lineage isolation with frequent seed flow of the coastal plant species is still unclear. We surveyed nucleotide polymorphisms over 14 nuclear loci in 72 individuals across the Japan-Ryukyu Islands Arc to address the demographic history of wild radish utilising the isolation-with-migration (IM) model. In addition, we investigated the flowering times of individuals in different wild radish lineages, with and without cold exposure, to assess their respective vernalisation responses. RESULTS: Coalescent simulations suggested that divergence between the southern and northern lineages of wild radish began ~18,000 years ago, initially during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period. The gene flow from the southern to northern groups was considerably higher than that in the opposite direction, indicating effective dispersal of viable seeds via the northward Kuroshio Current. Our greenhouse experiments indicated that cold exposure was not required for flowering in the southern group, but could advance the date of flowering, suggesting that vernalisation would be facultative in the southern group. In contrast, the northern group was either unable to flower or flowered later without prior cold exposure, and thus had an obligate requirement for cold treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The south-north lineage divergence in wild radish could be triggered by a directional change in the sea current during the ice age, despite gene flow due to the high dispersability and longevity of seeds. We also found that temperature profoundly affected the vernalisation responses of wild radish, which may repress reproductive success and ultimately drive and reinforce intra-specific differentiation between the two lineages of wild radish. This study provides new insights into the maintenance of lineage differentiation with on-going gene flow in coastal plants.