How Good Are Cardiologists at Predicting Major Adverse Events in Fontan Patients?

Background: It is unknown how well cardiologists predict which Fontan patients are at risk for major adverse events (MAEs). Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the accuracy of cardiologists' ability to identify the "good Fontan" patient, free from MAE within the following year, and compare that predicted risk cohort to patients who experienced MAE. Methods: This prospective, multicenter study included patients ≥10 years with lateral tunnel or extracardiac Fontan. The cardiologist was asked the yes/no "surprise" question: would you be surprised if your patient has a MAE in the next year? After 12 months, the cardiologist was surveyed to assess MAE. Agreement between cardiologist predictions of MAE and observed MAE was determined using the simple kappa coefficient. Multivariable generalized linear mixed effects models were performed to identify factors associated with MAE. Results: Overall, 146 patients were enrolled, and 99/146 (68%) patients w`ere predicted to be a "good Fontan." After 12 months, 17 (12%) experienced a MAE. The simple kappa coefficient of cardiologists' prediction was 0.17 (95% CI: 0.02-0.32), suggesting prediction of MAE was 17% better than random chance. In the multivariable cardiologist-predicted MAE (N = 47) model, diuretic/beta-blocker use (P ≤ 0.001) and systolic dysfunction (P = 0.005) were associated with MAE. In the observed multivariable MAE (N = 17) model, prior unplanned cardiac admission (P = 0.006), diuretic/beta-blocker use (P = 0.028), and ≥moderate atrioventricular valve regurgitation (P = 0.049) were associated with MAE. Conclusions: Cardiologists are marginally able to predict which Fontan patients are at risk for MAE over a year. There was overlap between factors associated with a cardiologist's prediction of risk and observed MAE, namely the use of diuretic/beta-blocker.

Identification of Patients with Early HR+ HER2- Breast Cancer at High Risk of Recurrence.

Breast cancer incidence has increased in the last two decades and, simultaneously, survival has improved due to earlier detection and improved treatment options. Despite this improvement, locoregional recurrences and distant metastases occur in up to 10 and 30% of women diagnosed with early breast cancer, respectively. Around 70% of breast cancers are hormone receptor positive (HR+), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative (HER2-), and associated with a persistent risk of relapse up to 20 years after diagnosis/initial treatment. We conducted a narrative review by combining PubMed searches with our clinical experience to describe patient characteristics, biomarkers, and genomic profiling tools available to clinicians for the identification of patients with HR+, HER2- early breast cancer at high risk of recurrence and to provide recommendations to classify patients into recurrence risk categories. National and international treatment guidelines are also summarised. Accurate assessment of the risk of recurrence in these patients is crucial as the predicted risk guides treatment decisions; imprecise estimations can result in over- or undertreatment, with either scenario having negative consequences for patients. Multiple prognostic tools and factors are recommended for early breast cancer, and no single test provides accurate prognosis in isolation. Since no single test can provide accurate prognosis in isolation, a combination of tools should be used. Risk thresholds are important to guide optimised and balanced therapeutic decisions in HR+, HER2- early breast cancer. However, prognostic assessment should be performed on a case-by-case basis, making patient-specific prognostic approaches essential to avoid over- or undertreatment.

Prediction of risk factors for intraoperative hypotension during general anesthesia undergoing carotid endarterectomy.

Objective: Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) has been considered as "gold standard" treatment for patients with significant carotid stenosis Intra-operative hypotension was a risk factor for post-operative complications in patients undergoing CEA. This study aimed to investigate the predictors for intra-operative hypotension during CEA. Methods: This retrospective study included consecutive patients underwent CEA from June 1, 2020 to May 31, 2021 in the neurosurgery department of Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University. The intraoperative hypotension was defined as blood pressure (BP) of 20% below standard value for longer than 5 min. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to identify the prediction of risk factors for intraoperative hypotension. Results: Overall, 367 patients were included, and 143 (39.0%) patients had hypotension during CEA procedure. Univariate analysis indicated Grade 3 hypertension (P = 0.002), peripheral artery disease (P = 0.006) and shunting (P = 0.049) were associated with occurrence of intraoperative hypotension during CEA procedure. On multivariable analysis, Grade 3 hypertension (P = 0.005), peripheral artery disease (P = 0.009), and shunting (P = 0.034) were all found to be independent predicting factors of hypotension during the CEA process. Conclusion: Intraoperative hypotension is a dynamic phenomenon may be affected by patients with grade 3 hypertension, peripheral artery disease and intra-operative shunting. It is necessary to pay special attention to these patients, both intraoperatively and postoperatively, to improve the final clinical outcome.

Associations between preoperative risks of postoperative complications: Results of an analysis of 4.8 Million ACS-NSQIP patients.

BACKGROUND: Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) estimates patient's preoperative risk of 12 postoperative complications, yet little is known about associations between these probabilities- We sought to examine relationships between predicted probabilities. METHODS: Risk of 12 postoperative complications was calculated using SURPAS and the 2012-2018 ACS-NSQIP database. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) were computed to examine relationships between predicted outcomes. "High-risk" was predicted risk in the 10th decile. RESULTS: 4,777,267 patients were included. 71.1% were not high risk, 10.7% were high risk for 1, and 18.2% were high risk for ≥2 complications. High mortality risk was associated with high risk for pulmonary (r = 0.94), cardiac (r = 0.98), renal (r = 0.93), and stroke (0.96) complications. Patients high-risk for ≥2 complications had the most comorbidities and actual adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: High preoperative risk for certain postoperative complications had strong correlations. 18.2% of patients were high-risk for ≥2 complications and could be targeted for risk reduction interventions.

Predictors of paravalvular regurgitation and permanent pacemaker implantation after TAVR with a next-generation self-expanding device.

AIMS: To identify predictors of paravalvular regurgitation (PVR) and permanent pacemaker implantation (PPI) following TAVR with a next-generation self-expanding device. METHODS AND RESULTS: Device landing zone (DLZ) calcification, angiographic implantation depth, and baseline and procedural characteristics were analyzed in 212 patients being treated with the ACURATE neo aortic bioprosthesis. PVR was none/trace in 57.1% and ≥ mild in 42.9% (37% mild, 6% moderate). DLZ calcification (705 (IQR 240-624) vs. 382 (IQR 240-624) mm3; P < 0.001) as well as absolute calcium asymmetry (233 ± 159 vs. 151 ± 151 mm3; P < 0.001) was significantly higher in patients with PVR ≥ mild. On multivariate analysis, calcification of the aortic valve cusps (AVC) > 410.6 mm3 was independently associated with PVR ≥ mild. PPI rate was 10.3% (n = 20). Patients with and without need for PPI had similar total DLZ calcium volume (740 (IQR 378-920) vs. 536 (IQR 315-822) mm3; P = 0.263), but exhibited different calcium distribution patterns: LVOT calcium > 41.4 mm3 in the sector below the left coronary cusp (LVOTLC) was associated with increased PPI risk (26.9 vs. 7.7%; P = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: The quantity of AVC calcium predicts residual PVR. Multivariable analysis identified LVOTLC calcium, pre-existing RBBB, and age > 82.7 years as independent predictors of PPI. Based on these risk factors, a patient's individual PPI risk can be stratified ranging from 3.8 to 100%.