Plinko: Eliciting beliefs to build better models of statistical learning and mental model updating.

Prior beliefs are central to Bayesian accounts of cognition, but many of these accounts do not directly measure priors. More specifically, initial states of belief heavily influence how new information is assumed to be utilized when updating a particular model. Despite this, prior and posterior beliefs are either inferred from sequential participant actions or elicited through impoverished means. We had participants to play a version of the game 'Plinko', to first elicit individual participant priors in a theoretically agnostic manner. Subsequent learning and updating of participant beliefs was then directly measured. We show that participants hold various priors that cluster around prototypical probability distributions that in turn influence learning. In follow-up studies, we show that participant priors are stable over time and that the ability to update beliefs is influenced by a simple environmental manipulation (i.e., a short break). These data reveal the importance of directly measuring participant beliefs rather than assuming or inferring them as has been widely done in the literature to date. The Plinko game provides a flexible and fecund means for examining statistical learning and mental model updating.

Clinically established early Parkinson's disease patients do not show impaired use of priors in conditions of perceptual uncertainty.

The ability to use past learned experiences to guide decisions is an important component of adaptive behavior, especially when decision-making is performed under time pressure or when perceptual information is unreliable. Previous studies using visual discrimination tasks have shown that this prior-informed decision-making ability is impaired in Parkinson's disease (PD), but the mechanisms underlying this deficit and the precise impact of dopaminergic denervation within cortico-basal circuits remain unclear. To shed light on this problem, we evaluated prior-informed decision-making under various conditions of perceptual uncertainty in a sample of 13 clinically established early PD patients, and compared behavioral performance with healthy control (HC) subjects matched in age, sex and education. PD patients and HC subjects performed a random dot motion task in which they had to decide the net direction (leftward vs. rightward) of a field of moving dots and communicate their choices through manual button presses. We manipulated prior knowledge by modulating the probability of occurrence of leftward vs. rightward motion stimuli between blocks of trials, and by explicitly giving these probabilities to subjects at the beginning of each block. We further manipulated stimulus discriminability by varying the proportion of dots moving coherently in the signal direction and speed-accuracy instructions. PD patients used choice probabilities to guide perceptual decisions in both speed and accuracy conditions, and their performance did not significantly differ from that of HC subjects. An additional analysis of the data with the diffusion decision model confirmed this conclusion. These results suggest that the impaired use of priors during visual discrimination observed at more advanced stages of PD is independent of dopaminergic denervation, though additional studies with larger sample sizes are needed to more firmly establish this conclusion.

Ontogenesis of self-disorders in the schizophrenia spectrum: A phenomenological neuro-developmental model.

The concept of basic Self-disorders (SD) captures the experiential aspects associated with vulnerability to schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD). SD emerge prior to, and constitute the underlying structure for, the emergence of major diagnostic symptoms, including positive psychotic ones. SD are also detectable in populations with familial risk for SSD. This paper proposes a two-stage phenomenological-developmental model, exploring the early deficit in multisensory integration and their impact on the ontogeny of the Minimal Self in the first years of life. It also examines subsequent emergence of schizotaxic vulnerability, which later manifests as typical anomalies of subjectivity, such as basic symptoms and self-disorders.

Atypical and variable attention patterns reveal reduced contextual priors in children with autism spectrum disorder.

Accumulating evidence suggests that individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) show impairments in using contextual priors to predict others' actions and make intention inference. Yet less is known about whether and how children with ASD acquire contextual priors during action observation and how contextual priors relate to their action prediction and intention inference. To form proper contextual priors, individuals need to observe the social scenes in a reliable manner and focus on socially relevant information. By employing a data-driven scan path method and areas of interest (AOI)-based analysis, the current study investigated how contextual priors would relate to action prediction and intention understanding in 4-to-9-year-old children with ASD (N = 56) and typically developing (TD) children (N = 50) during free viewing of dynamic social scenes with different intentions. Results showed that children with ASD exhibited higher intra-subject variability when scanning social scenes and reduced attention to socially relevant areas. Moreover, children with high-level action prediction and intention understanding showed lower intra-subject variability and increased attention to socially relevant areas. These findings suggest that altered fixation patterns might restrain children with ASD from acquiring proper contextual priors, which has cascading downstream effects on their action prediction and intention understanding.

Navigating Visual Challenges: How Parkinson's Disease Alters Cognitive Priorities in Visual Search.

OBJECTIVE: Parkinson's disease (PD) hampers visual search tasks such as reading, driving, and navigation. We examined expectations from past experiences, guiding cognition and contextual priors, on visual search in PD. METHODS: We compared eye movements as PD and healthy participants searched for a hidden object (target) in cluttered real-world scenes. RESULTS: PD participants prolonged fixation on high-probability (high-prior) locations for the target, consistent across expected and unexpected scenario. Such emphasis on contextual visual priors, evidenced by high fixation duration on high-probability areas, was beneficial when the target was at the expected location but presented challenges when the target was situated in an unlikely place. CONCLUSION: This study contributes to understanding how PD impacts visual search behavior and cognitive processing. The findings indicate that PD alters attention allocation and visual processing by affecting the utilization of contextual visual priors. It provides insights for potential interventions targeting visuo-cognitive deficits in PD patients. Published 2024. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Projected pooling loss for red nucleus segmentation with soft topology constraints.

Purpose: Deep learning is the standard for medical image segmentation. However, it may encounter difficulties when the training set is small. Also, it may generate anatomically aberrant segmentations. Anatomical knowledge can be potentially useful as a constraint in deep learning segmentation methods. We propose a loss function based on projected pooling to introduce soft topological constraints. Our main application is the segmentation of the red nucleus from quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) which is of interest in parkinsonian syndromes. Approach: This new loss function introduces soft constraints on the topology by magnifying small parts of the structure to segment to avoid that they are discarded in the segmentation process. To that purpose, we use projection of the structure onto the three planes and then use a series of MaxPooling operations with increasing kernel sizes. These operations are performed both for the ground truth and the prediction and the difference is computed to obtain the loss function. As a result, it can reduce topological errors as well as defects in the structure boundary. The approach is easy to implement and computationally efficient. Results: When applied to the segmentation of the red nucleus from QSM data, the approach led to a very high accuracy (Dice 89.9%) and no topological errors. Moreover, the proposed loss function improved the Dice accuracy over the baseline when the training set was small. We also studied three tasks from the medical segmentation decathlon challenge (MSD) (heart, spleen, and hippocampus). For the MSD tasks, the Dice accuracies were similar for both approaches but the topological errors were reduced. Conclusions: We propose an effective method to automatically segment the red nucleus which is based on a new loss for introducing topology constraints in deep learning segmentation.

Associations of Cognitive Expectancies With Auditory Hallucinations and Hallucinatory-Like Experiences in Patients With Schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Various neurocognitive models explore perceptual distortions and hallucinations in schizophrenia and the general population. A variant of predictive coding account suggests that strong priors, like cognitive expectancy, may influence perception. This study examines if stronger cognitive expectancies result in more auditory false percepts in clinical and healthy control groups, investigates group differences, and explores the association between false percepts and hallucinations. STUDY DESIGN: Patients diagnosed with schizophrenia with current auditory hallucinations (n = 51) and without hallucinations (n = 66) and healthy controls (n = 51) underwent the False Perception Task under various expectancy conditions. All groups were examined for the presence and severity of hallucinations or hallucinatory-like experiences. STUDY RESULTS: We observed a main effect of condition across all groups, ie, the stronger the cognitive expectancy, the greater the ratio of auditory false percepts. However, there was no group effect for the ratio of auditory false percepts. Despite modest pairwise correlations in the hallucinating group, the ratio of auditory false percepts was not predicted by levels of hallucinations and hallucinatory-like experiences in a linear mixed model. CONCLUSIONS: The current study demonstrates that strong priors in the form of cognitive expectancies affect perception and play a role in perceptual disturbances. There is also a tentative possibility that overreliance on strong priors may be associated with hallucinations in currently hallucinating subjects. Possible, avoidable confounding factors are discussed in detail.

Intact Serial Dependence in Schizophrenia: Evidence from an Orientation Adjustment Task.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: For a long time, it was proposed that schizophrenia (SCZ) patients rely more on sensory input and less on prior information, potentially leading to reduced serial dependence-ie, a reduced influence of prior stimuli in perceptual tasks. However, existing evidence is constrained to a few paradigms, and whether reduced serial dependence reflects a general characteristic of the disease remains unclear. STUDY DESIGN: We investigated serial dependence in 26 SCZ patients and 27 healthy controls (CNT) to evaluate the influence of prior stimuli in a classic visual orientation adjustment task, a paradigm not previously tested in this context. STUDY RESULTS: As expected, the CNT group exhibited clear serial dependence, with systematic biases toward the orientation of stimuli shown in the preceding trials. Serial dependence in SCZ patients was largely comparable to that in the CNT group. CONCLUSIONS: These findings challenge the prevailing notion of reduced serial dependence in SCZ, suggesting that observed differences between healthy CNT and patients may depend on aspects of perceptual or cognitive processing that are currently not understood.

A Regularized Bayesian Dirichlet-multinomial Regression Model for Integrating Single-cell-level Omics and Patient-level Clinical Study Data.

The abundance of various cell types can vary significantly among patients with varying phenotypes and even those with the same phenotype. Recent scientific advancements provide mounting evidence that other clinical variables, such as age, gender, and lifestyle habits, can also influence the abundance of certain cell types. However, current methods for integrating single-cell-level omics data with clinical variables are inadequate. In this study, we propose a regularized Bayesian Dirichlet-multinomial regression framework to investigate the relationship between single-cell RNA sequencing data and patient-level clinical data. Additionally, the model employs a novel hierarchical tree structure to identify such relationships at different cell-type levels. Our model successfully uncovers significant associations between specific cell types and clinical variables across three distinct diseases: pulmonary fibrosis, COVID-19, and non-small cell lung cancer. This integrative analysis provides biological insights and could potentially inform clinical interventions for various diseases.

Transdiagnostic failure to adapt interoceptive precision estimates across affective, substance use, and eating disorders: A replication and extension of previous results.

Recent Bayesian theories of interoception suggest that perception of bodily states rests upon a precision-weighted integration of afferent signals and prior beliefs. In a previous study, we fit a computational model of perception to behavior on a heartbeat tapping task to test whether aberrant precision-weighting could explain misestimation of cardiac states in psychopathology. We found that, during an interoceptive perturbation designed to amplify afferent signal precision (inspiratory breath-holding), healthy individuals increased the precision-weighting assigned to ascending cardiac signals (relative to resting conditions), while individuals with anxiety, depression, substance use disorders, and/or eating disorders did not. In this pre-registered study, we aimed to replicate and extend our prior findings in a new transdiagnostic patient sample (N = 285) similar to the one in the original study. As expected, patients in this new sample were also unable to adjust beliefs about the precision of cardiac signals - preventing the ability to accurately perceive changes in their cardiac state. Follow-up analyses combining samples from the previous and current study (N = 719) also afforded power to identify group differences between narrower diagnostic categories, and to examine predictive accuracy when logistic regression models were trained on one sample and tested on the other. With this confirmatory evidence in place, future studies should examine the utility of interceptive precision measures in predicting treatment outcomes and test whether these computational mechanisms might represent novel therapeutic targets.

Perceptual axioms are irreconcilable with Euclidean geometry.

There are different definitions of axioms, but the one that seems to have general approval is that axioms are statements whose truths are universally accepted but cannot be proven; they are the foundation from which further propositional truths are derived. Previous attempts, led by David Hilbert, to show that all of mathematics can be built into an axiomatic system that is complete and consistent failed when Kurt Gödel proved that there will always be statements which are known to be true but can never be proven within the same axiomatic system. But Gödel and his followers took no account of brain mechanisms that generate and mediate logic. In this largely theoretical paper, but backed by previous experiments and our new ones reported below, we show that in the case of so-called 'optical illusions', there exists a significant and irreconcilable difference between their visual perception and their description according to Euclidean geometry; when participants are asked to adjust, from an initial randomised state, the perceptual geometric axioms to conform to the Euclidean description, the two never match, although the degree of mismatch varies between individuals. These results provide evidence that perceptual axioms, or statements known to be perceptually true, cannot be described mathematically. Thus, the logic of the visual perceptual system is irreconcilable with the cognitive (mathematical) system and cannot be updated even when knowledge of the difference between the two is available. Hence, no one brain reality is more 'objective' than any other.

Segmentation of mediastinal lymph nodes in CT with anatomical priors.

PURPOSE: Lymph nodes (LNs) in the chest have a tendency to enlarge due to various pathologies, such as lung cancer or pneumonia. Clinicians routinely measure nodal size to monitor disease progression, confirm metastatic cancer, and assess treatment response. However, variations in their shapes and appearances make it cumbersome to identify LNs, which reside outside of most organs. METHODS: We propose to segment LNs in the mediastinum by leveraging the anatomical priors of 28 different structures (e.g., lung, trachea etc.) generated by the public TotalSegmentator tool. The CT volumes from 89 patients available in the public NIH CT Lymph Node dataset were used to train three 3D off-the-shelf nnUNet models to segment LNs. The public St. Olavs dataset containing 15 patients (out-of-training-distribution) was used to evaluate the segmentation performance. RESULTS: For LNs with short axis diameter ≥ 8 mm, the 3D cascade nnUNet model obtained the highest Dice score of 67.9 ± 23.4 and lowest Hausdorff distance error of 22.8 ± 20.2. For LNs of all sizes, the Dice score was 58.7 ± 21.3 and this represented a ≥ 10% improvement over a recently published approach evaluated on the same test dataset. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, we are the first to harness 28 distinct anatomical priors to segment mediastinal LNs, and our work can be extended to other nodal zones in the body. The proposed method has the potential for improved patient outcomes through the identification of enlarged nodes in initial staging CT scans.

Phantom perception as a Bayesian inference problem: a pilot study.

Tinnitus is the perception of a continuous sound in the absence of an external source. Although the role of the auditory system is well investigated, there is a gap in how multisensory signals are integrated to produce a single percept in tinnitus. Here, we train participants to learn a new sensory environment by associating a cue with a target signal that varies in perceptual threshold. In the test phase, we present only the cue to see whether the person perceives an illusion of the target signal. We perform two separate experiments to observe the behavioral and electrophysiological responses to the learning and test phases in 1) healthy young adults and 2) people with continuous subjective tinnitus and matched control subjects. We observed that in both parts of the study the percentage of false alarms was negatively correlated with the 75% detection threshold. Additionally, the perception of an illusion goes together with increased evoked response potential in frontal regions of the brain. Furthermore, in patients with tinnitus, we observe no significant difference in behavioral or evoked response in the auditory paradigm, whereas patients with tinnitus were more likely to report false alarms along with increased evoked activity during the learning and test phases in the visual paradigm. This emphasizes the importance of integrity of sensory pathways in multisensory integration and how this process may be disrupted in people with tinnitus. Furthermore, the present study also presents preliminary data supporting evidence that tinnitus patients may be building stronger perceptual models, which needs future studies with a larger population to provide concrete evidence on.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Tinnitus is the continuous phantom perception of a ringing in the ears. Recently, it has been suggested that tinnitus may be a maladaptive inference of the brain to auditory anomalies, whether they are detected or undetected by an audiogram. The present study presents empirical evidence for this hypothesis by inducing an illusion in a sensory domain that is damaged (auditory) and one that is intact (visual). It also presents novel information about how people with tinnitus process multisensory stimuli in the audio-visual domain.

Statistical Characterisation of Fetal Anatomy in Simple Obstetric Ultrasound Video Sweeps.

OBJECTIVE: We present a statistical characterisation of fetal anatomies in obstetric ultrasound video sweeps where the transducer follows a fixed trajectory on the maternal abdomen. METHODS: Large-scale, frame-level manual annotations of fetal anatomies (head, spine, abdomen, pelvis, femur) were used to compute common frame-level anatomy detection patterns expected for breech, cephalic, and transverse fetal presentations, with respect to video sweep paths. The patterns, termed statistical heatmaps, quantify the expected anatomies seen in a simple obstetric ultrasound video sweep protocol. In this study, a total of 760 unique manual annotations from 365 unique pregnancies were used. RESULTS: We provide a qualitative interpretation of the heatmaps assessing the transducer sweep paths with respect to different fetal presentations and suggest ways in which the heatmaps can be applied in computational research (e.g., as a machine learning prior). CONCLUSION: The heatmap parameters are freely available to other researchers (https://github.com/agleed/calopus_statistical_heatmaps).

Bayesian Reconciliation of Return Predictability.

This article considers a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model and investigates return predictability in a Bayesian context. The bivariate VAR system comprises asset returns and a further prediction variable, such as the dividend-price ratio, and allows pinning down the question of return predictability to the value of one particular model parameter. We develop a new shrinkage type prior for this parameter and compare our Bayesian approach to ordinary least squares estimation and to the reduced-bias estimator proposed in Amihud and Hurvich (2004. "Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 39: 813-41). A simulation study shows that the Bayesian approach dominates the reduced-bias estimator in terms of observed size (false positive) and power (false negative). We apply our methodology to a system comprising annual CRSP value-weighted returns running, respectively, from 1926 to 2004 and from 1953 to 2021, and the logarithmic dividend-price ratio. For the first sample, the Bayesian approach supports the hypothesis of no return predictability, while for the second data set weak evidence for predictability is observed. Then, instead of the dividend-price ratio, some prediction variables proposed in Welch and Goyal (2008. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction." Review of Financial Studies 21: 1455-508) are used. Also with these prediction variables, only weak evidence for return predictability is supported by Bayesian testing. These results are corroborated with an out-of-sample forecasting analysis.

Lightweight interactive feature inference network for single-image super-resolution.

The emergence of convolutional neural network (CNN) and transformer has recently facilitated significant advances in image super-resolution (SR) tasks. However, these networks commonly construct complex structures, having huge model parameters and high computational costs, to boost reconstruction performance. In addition, they do not consider the structural prior well, which is not conducive to high-quality image reconstruction. In this work, we devise a lightweight interactive feature inference network (IFIN), complementing the strengths of CNN and Transformer, for effective image SR reconstruction. Specifically, the interactive feature aggregation module (IFAM), implemented by structure-aware attention block (SAAB), Swin Transformer block (SWTB), and enhanced spatial adaptive block (ESAB), serves as the network backbone, progressively extracts more dedicated features to facilitate the reconstruction of high-frequency details in the image. SAAB adaptively recalibrates local salient structural information, and SWTB effectively captures rich global information. Further, ESAB synergetically complements local and global priors to ensure the consistent fusion of diverse features, achieving high-quality reconstruction of images. Comprehensive experiments reveal that our proposed networks attain state-of-the-art reconstruction accuracy on benchmark datasets while maintaining low computational demands. Our code and results are available at: https://github.com/wwaannggllii/IFIN .

Biases in hand perception are driven by somatosensory computations, not a distorted hand model.

To sense and interact with objects in the environment, we effortlessly configure our fingertips at desired locations. It is therefore reasonable to assume that the underlying control mechanisms rely on accurate knowledge about the structure and spatial dimensions of our hand and fingers. This intuition, however, is challenged by years of research showing drastic biases in the perception of finger geometry.1,2,3,4,5 This perceptual bias has been taken as evidence that the brain's internal representation of the body's geometry is distorted,6 leading to an apparent paradox regarding the skillfulness of our actions.7 Here, we propose an alternative explanation of the biases in hand perception-they are the result of the Bayesian integration of noisy, but unbiased, somatosensory signals about finger geometry and posture. To address this hypothesis, we combined Bayesian reverse engineering with behavioral experimentation on joint and fingertip localization of the index finger. We modeled the Bayesian integration either in sensory or in space-based coordinates, showing that the latter model variant led to biases in finger perception despite accurate representation of finger length. Behavioral measures of joint and fingertip localization responses showed similar biases, which were well fitted by the space-based, but not the sensory-based, model variant. The space-based model variant also outperformed a distorted hand model with built-in geometric biases. In total, our results suggest that perceptual distortions of finger geometry do not reflect a distorted hand model but originate from near-optimal Bayesian inference on somatosensory signals.

Spatial-temporal Bayesian accelerated failure time models for survival endpoints with applications to prostate cancer registry data.

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer after non-melanoma skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer deaths in US men. Its incidence and mortality rates vary substantially across geographical regions and over time, with large disparities by race, geographic regions (i.e., Appalachia), among others. The widely used Cox proportional hazards model is usually not applicable in such scenarios owing to the violation of the proportional hazards assumption. In this paper, we fit Bayesian accelerated failure time models for the analysis of prostate cancer survival and take dependent spatial structures and temporal information into account by incorporating random effects with multivariate conditional autoregressive priors. In particular, we relax the proportional hazards assumption, consider flexible frailty structures in space and time, and also explore strategies for handling the temporal variable. The parameter estimation and inference are based on a Monte Carlo Markov chain technique under a Bayesian framework. The deviance information criterion is used to check goodness of fit and to select the best candidate model. Extensive simulations are performed to examine and compare the performances of models in different contexts. Finally, we illustrate our approach by using the 2004-2014 Pennsylvania Prostate Cancer Registry data to explore spatial-temporal heterogeneity in overall survival and identify significant risk factors.

Direction-of-Arrival Estimation via Sparse Bayesian Learning Exploiting Hierarchical Priors with Low Complexity.

For direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation problems in a sparse domain, sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) is highly favored by researchers owing to its excellent estimation performance. However, traditional SBL-based methods always assign Gaussian priors to parameters to be solved, leading to moderate sparse signal recovery (SSR) effects. The reason is Gaussian priors play a similar role to l2 regularization in sparsity constraint. Therefore, numerous methods are developed by adopting hierarchical priors that are used to perform better than Gaussian priors. However, these methods are in straitened circumstances when multiple measurement vector (MMV) data are adopted. On this basis, a block-sparse SBL method (named BSBL) is developed to handle DOA estimation problems in MMV models. The novelty of BSBL is the combination of hierarchical priors and block-sparse model originating from MMV data. Therefore, on the one hand, BSBL transfers the MMV model to a block-sparse model by vectorization so that Bayesian learning is directly performed, regardless of the prior independent assumption of different measurement vectors and the inconvenience caused by the solution of matrix form. On the other hand, BSBL inherited the advantage of hierarchical priors for better SSR ability. Despite the benefit, BSBL still has the disadvantage of relatively large computation complexity caused by high dimensional matrix operations. In view of this, two operations are implemented for low complexity. One is reducing the matrix dimension of BSBL by approximation, generating a method named BSBL-APPR, and the other is embedding the generalized approximate message passing (GAMB) technique into BSBL so as to decompose matrix operations into vector or scale operations, named BSBL-GAMP. Moreover, BSBL is able to suppress temporal correlation and handle wideband sources easily. Extensive simulation results are presented to prove the superiority of BSBL over other state-of-the-art algorithms.