On-treatment decline in MELD score predicts one-month transplant-free survival in rodenticidal hepatotoxicity patients treated with low-volume plasma exchange.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Plasma exchange (PLEX) improves survival in patients with rodenticidal hepatotoxicity. However, predictors of treatment response are unknown. We aimed at assessing predictors of response to PLEX treatment in these patients. METHODS: Patients with rodenticidal hepatotoxicity from 2014 to 2023 managed in our department were included in this study. Kochi criteria (model for end-stage liver disease [MELD] score ≥ 36 or international normalized ratio [INR] ≥ 6 with hepatic encephalopathy [HE]) derived specifically for rodenticidal hepatotoxicity (PubMed IDentifier [PMID]: 26310868) were used to assess need for liver transplantation. We analyzed predictors of survival at one month. ∆Bilirubin, ∆MELD score and ∆INR were calculated as percentage change of the parameter after third PLEX session (or after last PLEX if < 3 PLEX sessions done) from baseline pre-PLEX value. RESULTS: Of 200 patients with rodenticidal hepatotoxicity, 114 patients were treated with low-volume PLEX (PLEX-LV). No patient had liver transplantation. Of 78 patients who fulfilled Kochi criteria, 32 patients were PLEX-LV eligible and underwent PLEX-LV (M: 10; age: 20.5, 7-70 years; median, range; acute liver failure: 24). Twenty-two (69%; acute liver failure: 14) of the 32 patients were alive at one month. Presence of HE (p = 0.03) and ∆MELD (p < 0.001) were significant predictors on univariate analysis, while ∆MELD (aOR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.79-0.98, p = 0.01) was the only significant independent predictor of one-month transplant-free survival. Area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) for ∆MELD was 0.93 (95% CI:0.85-1.00) and a decrease of ≥ 20% in MELD score while on PLEX-LV had 90% sensitivity and 90% specificity in predicting one-month survival. CONCLUSIONS: Decline in MELD while on PLEX-LV independently predicted one-month transplant-free survival in rodenticidal hepatotoxicity patients. This may help guide decision on stopping PLEX-LV in patients predicted to respond to treatment and to consider alternate treatment options in non-responders.

Role of PAR1 -506 deletion/insertion polymorphism in primary sclerosing cholangitis.

AIM: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a rare cholestatic liver disease characterized by inflammation of the intra- and extrahepatic bile ducts. Pathogenesis of PSC is still enigmatic but is likely to be multifactorial. Recently, we identified an interleukin-6 (IL-6)-dependent signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) activation in CD4+ TH1 and TH17 cells in PSC. The IL-6/STAT3 pathway was shown to be regulated by protease-activated receptor 1 (PAR1) contributing to inflammation. The role of the PAR1 -506 deletion/insertion (Del/Ins) polymorphism in PSC has not yet been investigated. METHODS: Two hundred eighty four PSC patients (200 patients with inflammatory bowel diseases [IBD] and 84 without IBD) and 309 healthy controls were genotyped for PAR1 rs11267092 (-506 Del/Ins -13 bp). Results were correlated with clinical characteristics and transplant-free survival. RESULTS: The frequency of PAR1 -506 Ins allele carriers (Del/Ins and Ins/Ins) was significantly higher in PSC patients (57.0%) compared to healthy controls (39.8%). Furthermore, carriers of PAR1 -506 Ins allele were more likely to have PSC than noncarriers (odds ratio 2.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.79). Patients with PSC carrying the PAR1 -506 Ins allele showed significantly higher alanine aminotransferase serum levels (p = 0.0357) and a trend toward shorter transplant-free survival time compared to noncarriers (8.9 ± 6.6 years vs. 10.5 ± 7.1 years; p = 0.076). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that PAR1 -506 Ins is significantly more frequent in people with PSC. As PAR1 -506 Ins allele carriers tended to have a shorter transplant-free survival, PAR1 might play a role in the development and course of PSC.

Clinical characteristics and prognosis of non-APAP drug-induced acute liver failure: a large multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is growing recognition of natural history, complications, and outcomes of patients who develop non-acetaminophen (APAP) drug-induced acute liver failure (ALF). To clarify high-risk factors and develop a nomogram model to predict transplant-free survival (TFS) in patients with non-APAP drug-induced ALF. METHODS: Patients with non-APAP drug-induced ALF from 5 participating centers were retrospectively analyzed. The primary endpoint was 21-day TFS. Total sample size was 482 patients. RESULTS: Regarding causative agents, the most common implicated drugs were herbal and dietary supplements (HDS) (57.0%). The hepatocellular type (R ≥ 5) was the main liver injury pattern (69.0%). International normalized ratio, hepatic encephalopathy grades, the use of vasopressor, N-acetylcysteine, or artificial liver support system were associated with TFS and incorporated to construct a nomogram model (drug-induced acute liver failure-5, DIALF-5). The AUROC of DIALF-5 for 7-day, 21-day, 60-day, and 90-day TFS in the internal cohort were 0.886, 0.915, 0.920, and 0.912, respectively. Moreover, the AUROC of DIALF-5 for 21-day TFS had the highest AUROC, which was significantly higher than 0.725 of MELD and 0.519 of KCC (p < 0.05), numerically higher than 0.905 of ALFSG-PI but without statistical difference (p > 0.05). These results were successfully validated in the external cohort (147 patients). CONCLUSIONS: Based on easily identifiable clinical data, the novel DIALF-5 model was developed to predict transplant-free survival in non-APAP drug-induced ALF, which was superior to KCC, MELD and had a similar prediction performance to ALFSG-PI but is more convenient, which can directly calculate TFS at multiple time points.

Symptomatic presentation influences outcomes in pediatric restrictive cardiomyopathy.

Introduction: Children with restrictive cardiomyopathy (RCM) traditionally have a poor prognosis, with most patients either dying or requiring heart transplantation within 2 years of diagnosis. The development of symptoms in RCM suggests advanced disease. However, as screening practices evolve and lead to diagnosis of early disease, identifying appropriate timing of transplant listing becomes increasingly important. In this context we compared outcomes of children with RCM presenting with clinical symptoms to those asymptomatic at initial presentation. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 25 patients with RCM presenting to a quaternary care center between 2001 and 2018. Times to transplantation, death, and a composite outcome of adverse cardiac events (CPR, cardioversion, inotropic support, mechanical ventilation, mechanical support, or heart transplant) were compared between those symptomatic and asymptomatic at presentation. Results: At 2 years following diagnosis, patients asymptomatic at presentation had a significantly better transplant-free survival at 57% compared to 17% for symptomatic patients (p = 0.03). Those asymptomatic at diagnosis also had significantly improved cardiac event-free survival at 71% compared to symptomatic patients at 25% (p = 0.01). In multivariable analysis, cardiac symptoms at presentation remained an independent risk factor for heart-transplant or death [hazard ratio 5.17 (1.28-20.85), p = 0.02]. Conclusion: Patients with RCM who are symptomatic at time of diagnosis have significantly worse transplant-free survival and cardiac event-free survival. Given current practice variability in timing of transplant listing, the presence of any cardiac symptoms is an important negative prognostic marker and should prompt urgent transplant listing.

Establishment and application of the BRP prognosis model for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is the most common idiopathic interstitial lung disease. Clinical models to accurately evaluate the prognosis of IPF are currently lacking. This study aimed to construct an easy-to-use and robust prediction model for transplant-free survival (TFS) of IPF based on clinical and radiological information. METHODS: A multicenter prognostic study was conducted involving 166 IPF patients who were followed up for 3 years. The end point of follow-up was death or lung transplantation. Clinical information, lung function tests, and chest computed tomography (CT) scans were collected. Body composition quantification on CT was performed using 3D Slicer software. Risk factors in blood routine examination-radiology-pulmonary function (BRP) were identified by Cox regression and utilized to construct the "BRP Prognosis Model". The performance of the BRP model and the gender-age-physiology variables (GAP) model was compared using time-ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Furthermore, histopathology fibrosis scores in clinical specimens were compared between the different risk stratifications identified by the BRP model. The correlations among body composition, lung function, serum inflammatory factors, and profibrotic factors were analyzed. RESULTS: Neutrophil percentage > 68.3%, pericardial adipose tissue (PAT) > 94.91 cm3, pectoralis muscle radiodensity (PMD) ≤ 36.24 HU, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide/alveolar ventilation (DLCO/VA) ≤ 56.03%, and maximum vital capacity (VCmax) < 90.5% were identified as independent risk factors for poor TFS among patients with IPF. We constructed a BRP model, which showed superior accuracy, discrimination, and clinical practicability to the GAP model. Median TFS differed significantly among patients at different risk levels identified by the BRP model (low risk: TFS > 3 years; intermediate risk: TFS = 2-3 years; high risk: TFS ≈ 1 year). Patients with a high-risk stratification according to the BRP model had a higher fibrosis score on histopathology. Additionally, serum proinflammatory markers were positively correlated with visceral fat volume and infiltration. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the BRP prognostic model of IPF was successfully constructed and validated. Compared with the commonly used GAP model, the BRP model had better performance and generalization with easily obtainable indicators. The BRP model is suitable for clinical promotion.

Disease progression in patients with usual interstitial pneumonia and probable UIP patterns on computed tomography with various underlying etiologies: a retrospective cohort study.

Background: Usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) is a pattern of interstitial pneumonia that is caused by different etiologies. This study aimed to investigate the transplant-free survival (TFS) and the decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) of the patients with UIP and probable UIP patterns on CT caused by various underlying conditions. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, enrolling patients with interstitial lung disease exhibiting a CT pattern consistent with UIP or probable UIP. Clinical and prognostic data of patients categorized by the etiology were compared. Results: A total of 591 patients were included and classified into the following groups: idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) (n = 320), connective tissue disease (CTD)-UIP (n = 229), asbestosis-UIP (n = 28), and hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP)-UIP (n = 14). Advanced age, elevated levels of serum cytokeratin fraction 21-1 and percentage of neutrophils in bronchoalveolar lavage were observed in all groups. IPF patients showed a more rapid decline in FVC (133.9 mL/year) compared to CTD-UIP (24.5 mL/year, p = 0.001) and asbestosis-UIP (61.0 mL/year, p = 0.008) respectively. Sub-analysis of CTD-UIP revealed that patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-UIP (88.1 mL/year) or antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis (AAV)-UIP (72.9 mL/year) experienced a faster deterioration in FVC compared to those with primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS)-UIP (25.9 mL/year, p < 0.05). Kaplan-Meier curves showed that IPF had the poorest TFS (median 55.9 months), followed by HP-UIP (57.5 months), CTD-UIP (66.7 months), and asbestosis-UIP (TFS not reached). RA-UIP or AAV-UIP did not exhibit any prognostic advantages compared to IPF, while asbestosis-UIP and pSS-UIP showed better survival rates. Conclusion: Patients with UIP caused by different underlying conditions share certain common features, but the trajectories of disease progression and survival outcomes differ.

Impact of antigen identification on transplant free survival in interstitial lung disease.

INTRODUCTION: Antigen identification impacts diagnosis as well as prognosis in patients with hypersensitivity pneumonitis. An antigen may also be present in other etiologies of interstitial lung disease, however it is unknown whether identification impacts survival. METHODS: We evaluated a retrospective cohort in order to determine if antigen identification affects transplant free survival in patients with hypersensitivity pneumonitis, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, connective tissue disease interstitial lung disease, and interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features. Only patients with definite or high probability of hypersensitivity pneumonitis by American Thoracic Society guidelines were included in the analysis. RESULTS: Transplant free survival was improved with antigen identification in patients with hypersensitivity pneumonitis but not in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, connective tissue disease interstitial lung disease, and interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that removal of identified antigen in interstitial lung diseases other than hypersensitivity pneumonitis may not be impactful. Additionally, it further suggests that definitive diagnosis of hypersensitivity pneumonitis with bronchoalveolar lavage and transbronchial biopsy may be beneficial prior to recommending antigen removal.

Pulmonary hemodynamics and transplant-free survival in sarcoidosis-associated pulmonary hypertension: Results from an international registry.

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a risk factor for mortality in patients with sarcoidosis. Severe PH in chronic lung disease has previously been defined as mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP) ≥ 35 mmHg or mPAP 25 ≥ mmHg with cardiac index (CI) ≤ 2 L/min/m2. However, there is no clear definition denoting severity of sarcoidosis-associated PH (SAPH). We aimed to determine pulmonary hemodynamic cut-off values where transplant-free survival was worse among patients with SAPH. This was a retrospective cohort analysis of the Registry of SAPH database focusing on pulmonary hemodynamic predictors of transplant-free survival among patients with precapillary SAPH. Cox regression was performed to determine which pulmonary hemodynamic values predicted death or lung transplantation. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed on statistically significant predictors to determine pulmonary hemodynamic cut-off values where transplant-free survival was decreased. Decreased transplant-free survival occurred among SAPH patients with mPAP ≥ 40 mmHg and SAPH patients with pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) ≥ 5 Woods units (WU). Transplant-free survival was not decreased in patients who fulfilled prior criteria of severe PH in chronic lung disease. We identified new cut-offs with decreased transplant-free survival in the SAPH population. Neither cut-off of mPAP ≥ 40 mmHg nor PVR ≥ 5 WU has previously been shown to be associated with decreased transplant-free survival in SAPH. These values could suggest a new definition of severe SAPH. Our PVR findings are in line with the most recent European Society of Cardiology/European Respiratory Society guideline definition of severe PH in chronic lung disease.

Indeterminate etiology of acute liver failure in North America: Less common, still grave prognosis.

BACKGROUND: The etiology of acute liver failure (ALF) remains one of the most important factors in determining prognosis and predicting outcomes. In a significant proportion of ALF cases, however, the etiology remains unknown and is categorized as indeterminate ALF (IND-ALF). In this study, we summarize findings from patients with IND-ALF from 32 transplant centers across the United States, and we compare laboratory, prognostic, and outcome data for patients with IND-ALF. METHODS: Between 1998 and 2019, 3364 adult patients with ALF or acute liver injury (ALI) from 32 liver transplant centers were enrolled in the ALFSG registry. The primary clinical outcome of interest was 21-day transplant-free survival (TFS). RESULTS: Of the 3364 patients enrolled in the ALFSG registry, 3.4 % (n = 114) were adjudicated as true indeterminate. On multivariate analysis, patients with a lower bilirubin, lower INR, lack of use of mechanical ventilation and no clinical features of coma at baseline had a higher odds ratio of transplant free survival. The number of deaths were similar between patients with true-IND ALF versus patients with indeterminable ALF (29.8% vs. 27.2%), with almost half of the patients requiring liver transplant (42.1% vs. 45.7%). CONCLUSION: We illustrate the poor prognoses that true-IND-ALF and indeterminable ALF carry and the need for emergency liver transplantation in most cases.

Liver replacement therapy with extracorporeal blood purification techniques current knowledge and future directions.

Clinically, it is highly challenging to promote recovery in patients with acute liver failure (ALF) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Despite recent advances in understanding the underlying mechanisms of ALF and ACLF, standard medical therapy remains the primary therapeutic approach. Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the last option, and in several cases, it is the only intervention that can be lifesaving. Unfortunately, this intervention is limited by organ donation shortage or exclusion criteria such that not all patients in need can receive a transplant. Another option is to restore impaired liver function with artificial extracorporeal blood purification systems. The first such systems were developed at the end of the 20th century, providing solutions as bridging therapy, either for liver recovery or LT. They enhance the elimination of metabolites and substances that accumulate due to compromised liver function. In addition, they aid in clearance of molecules released during acute liver decompensation, which can initiate an excessive inflammatory response in these patients causing hepatic encephalopathy, multiple-organ failure, and other complications of liver failure. As compared to renal replacement therapies, we have been unsuccessful in using artificial extracorporeal blood purification systems to completely replace liver function despite the outstanding technological evolution of these systems. Extracting middle to high-molecular-weight and hydrophobic/protein-bound molecules remains extremely challenging. The majority of the currently available systems include a combination of methods that cleanse different ranges and types of molecules and toxins. Furthermore, conventional methods such as plasma exchange are being re-evaluated, and novel adsorption filters are increasingly being used for liver indications. These strategies are very promising for the treatment of liver failure. Nevertheless, the best method, system, or device has not been developed yet, and its probability of getting developed in the near future is also low. Furthermore, little is known about the effects of liver support systems on the overall and transplant-free survival of these patients, and further investigation using randomized controlled trials and meta-analyses is needed. This review presents the most popular extracorporeal blood purification techniques for liver replacement therapy. It focuses on general principles of their function, and on evidence regarding their effectiveness in detoxification and in supporting patients with ALF and ACLF. In addition, we have outlined the basic advantages and disadvantages of each system.

Quantitative interstitial lung disease scores in idiopathic inflammatory myopathies: longitudinal changes and clinical implications.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate computer-aided quantitative scores from high-resolution CT (HRCT) images and determine their longitudinal changes and clinical significance in patients with idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs)-related interstitial lung disease (IIMs-ILD). METHODS: The clinical data and HRCT images of 80 patients with IIMs who underwent serial HRCT scans at least twice were retrospectively analysed. Quantitative ILD (QILD) scores (%) were calculated as the sum of the extent of lung fibrosis, ground-glass opacity, and honeycombing. The individual time-estimated ΔQILD between two consecutive scans was derived using a linear approximation of yearly changes. RESULTS: The baseline median QILD (interquartile range) scores in the whole lung were 28.1% (19.1-43.8). The QILD was significantly correlated with forced vital capacity (r = -0.349, P = 0.002) and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (r = -0.381, P = 0.001). For ΔQILD between the first two scans, according to the visual ILD subtype, QILD aggravation was more frequent in patients with usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) than non-UIP (80.0% vs 44.4%, P = 0.013). Multivariable logistic regression analyses identified UIP was significantly related to radiographic ILD progression (ΔQILD >2%, P = 0.015). Patients with higher baseline QILD scores (>28.1%) had a higher risk of lung transplantation or death (P = 0.015). In the analysis of three serial HRCT scans (n = 41), dynamic ΔQILD with four distinct patterns (improving, worsening, convex and concave) was observed. CONCLUSION: QILD changes in IIMs-ILD were dynamic, and baseline UIP patterns seemed to be related to a longitudinal progression in QILD. These may be potential imaging biomarkers for lung function, changes in ILD severity and prognosis in IIMs-ILD.

Interstitial Lung Disease in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: A Cohort Prospective Study.

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) has been recognized as an extrahepatic manifestation ofprimary biliary cholangitis (PBC), althoughlimited data are available on its prevalence and clinical significance. Therefore, we evaluated the occurrence and clinical features of ILD in a cohort of PBC patients. Ninety-three individuals without concomitant rheumatic diseases were enrolled in our prospective cohort study. All patients underwent chest high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). Liver-related and lung-related survival wereassessed. A lung-related outcome was defined as death from ILD complications; a liver-related outcome was defined as liver transplantation or death from liver cirrhosis complications. HRCT findings suggestive ofILD were detected in 38 patients (40.9%). A sarcoid-like pattern of PBC-associated ILD was the most frequent, followed by subclinical ILD and organizing pneumonia. Patients with ILD were less likely to have liver cirrhosis and liver-related symptoms and presented with higher serum immunoglobulin M(IgM) and M2 subtype antimitochondrial antibodies (AMA-M2) positivity rates. In a multivariate analysis, the absence of liver disease symptoms at the disease presentation (OR 11.509; 95% CI 1.210-109.421; p = 0.033), the presence of hepatic non-necrotizing epithelioid cell granulomas (OR 17.754; 95% CI 1.805-174.631; p = 0.014), higher serum IgM (OR 1.535; 95% CI 1.067-2.208; p = 0.020) and higher blood leukocyte count (OR 2.356; 95% CI 1.170-4.747; p = 0.016) were independent risk factors associated with ILD in PBC. More than a third of patients with ILD showed no respiratory symptoms, and only one ILD-related death occurred during a follow-up of 29.0 months (IQR 11.5; 38.0). Patients with ILD had better liver transplant-free survival.ILD in PBC had a benign course and was associated with a lower liver disease severity. PBC-associated ILD should be included in a list of differential diagnoses of ILD.

Improved Survival for Patients with Systemic Sclerosis-associated Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: The Johns Hopkins Registry.

Rationale: To date, it remains unclear whether recent changes in the management of patients with systemic sclerosis-associated pulmonary hypertension (SSc-PH) have improved survival. Objectives: To describe a cohort of patients with SSc-PH and compare their characteristics and survival between the last two decades. Methods: Patients with SSc-PH prospectively enrolled in the Johns Hopkins Pulmonary Hypertension Center Registry were grouped into two cohorts based on the date of diagnostic right heart catheterization: cohort A included patients whose disease was diagnosed between 1999 and 2010, and cohort B included those whose disease was diagnosed between 2010 and 2021. Patients' characteristics were compared between the two cohorts. Measurements and Main Results: Of 504 patients with SSc-PH distributed almost equally between the two cohorts, 308 (61%) had World Symposium on Pulmonary Hypertension group 1, 43 (9%) had group 2, and 151 (30%) had group 3 disease. Patients with group 1 disease in cohort B had significantly better clinical and hemodynamic characteristics at diagnosis, were more likely to receive upfront combination pulmonary arterial hypertension therapy, and had a nearly 4-year increase in median transplant-free survival in univariable analysis than those in cohort A (P < 0.01). Improved transplant-free survival was still observed after adjusting for patients' baseline characteristics. In contrast, for group 2 or 3 patients with SSc-PH, there were no differences in baseline clinical, hemodynamic, or survival characteristics between the two cohorts. Conclusions: This is the largest single-center study that compares clinical characteristics of patients with SSc-PH between the last two decades. Transplant-free survival has improved significantly for those with group 1 disease over the last decade, possibly secondary to earlier detection and better therapeutic management. Conversely, those with group 2 or 3 disease continue to have dismal prognosis.

Identification of Early Clinical and Histological Factors Predictive of Kasai Portoenterostomy Failure.

Background: It is impossible to predict which patients with biliary atresia (BA) will fail after Kasai portoenterostomy (KPE). We evaluated the predictive nature of pre-KPE clinical and histological factors on transplant-free survival (TFS) and jaundice clearance. Methods: A retrospective review of patients who received a KPE at our institution (1997−2018) was performed. Primary outcomes were two-year TFS, five-year TFS, and jaundice clearance 3 months after KPE. p < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: Fifty-four patients were included in this study. The two-year TFS was 35.1%, five-year TFS was 24.5%, and 37% patients reached a direct bilirubin (DB) ≤ 2.0 mg/dL 3 months post KPE. The median age at biopsy was younger in the five-year TFS (39.0 (24.5−55.5) vs. 56.0 days (51.0−67.0), p = 0.011). Patients with DB ≤ 1.0 mg/dL 3 months after KPE were statistically younger at biopsy (DB ≤ 1.0 44.0 (26.0−56.0) vs. DB > 1.0 56.0 days (51.0−69.0), p = 0.016). Ductal plate malformation was less frequent in the five-year TFS (16/17, 94.1%, vs. 1/17, 5.9%, p = 0.037). Portal fibrosis (19/23, 82.6%, vs. 4/23, 17.4%, p = 0.028) and acute cholangitis (6/7, 85.7%, vs. 1/7, 14.3%, p = 0.047) occurred less frequently in two-year TFS. Conclusion: Older age at biopsy, acute cholangitis, portal fibrosis, and ductal plate malformation were associated with lower native liver survival. Evaluation in a larger study population is needed to validate these results.

Greater Transplant-Free Survival in Patients Receiving Obeticholic Acid for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in a Clinical Trial Setting Compared to Real-World External Controls.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Obeticholic Acid (OCA) International Study of Efficacy (POISE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial demonstrated that OCA reduced biomarkers associated with adverse clinical outcomes (ie, alkaline phosphatase, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase) in patients with PBC. The objective of this study was to evaluate time to first occurrence of liver transplantation or death in patients with OCA in the POISE trial and open-label extension vs comparable non-OCA-treated external controls. METHODS: Propensity scores were generated for external control patients meeting POISE eligibility criteria from 2 registry studies (Global PBC and UK-PBC) using an index date selected randomly between the first and last date (inclusive) on which eligibility criteria were met. Cox proportional hazards models weighted by inverse probability of treatment assessed time to death or liver transplantation. Additional analyses (Global PBC only) added hepatic decompensation to the composite end point and assessed efficacy in patients with or without cirrhosis. RESULTS: During the 6-year follow-up, there were 5 deaths or liver transplantations in 209 subjects in the POISE cohort (2.4%), 135 of 1381 patients in the Global PBC control (10.0%), and 281 of 2135 patients in the UK-PBC control (13.2%). The hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome were 0.29 (95% CI, 0.10-0.83) for POISE vs Global PBC and 0.30 (95% CI, 0.12-0.75) for POISE vs UK-PBC. In the Global PBC study, HR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.03-1.22) for patients with cirrhosis and 0.31 (95% CI, 0.09-1.04) for those without cirrhosis; HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.21-0.85) including hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated with OCA in a trial setting had significantly greater transplant-free survival than comparable external control patients.

Risk of further decompensation/mortality in patients with cirrhosis and ascites as the first single decompensation event.

Background & Aims: Although ascites is the most frequent first decompensating event in cirrhosis, the clinical course after ascites as the single index decompensation is not well defined. The aim of this multicentre study was thus to systematically investigate the incidence and type of further decompensation after ascites as the first decompensating event and to assess risk factors for mortality. Methods: A total of 622 patients with cirrhosis presenting with grade 2/3 ascites as the single index decompensating event at 2 university hospitals (Padova and Vienna) between 2003 and 2021 were included. Events of further decompensation, liver transplantation, and death were recorded. Results: The mean age was 57 ± 11 years, and most patients were male (n = 423, 68%) with alcohol-related (n = 366, 59%) and viral (n = 200,32%) liver disease as the main aetiologies. In total, 323 (52%) patients presented with grade 2 and 299 (48%) with grade 3 ascites. The median Child-Pugh score at presentation was 8 (IQR 7-9), and the mean model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was 15 ± 6. During a median follow-up period of 49 months, 350 (56%) patients experienced further decompensation: refractory ascites (n = 130, 21%), hepatic encephalopathy (n = 112, 18%), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (n = 32, 5%), hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (n = 29, 5%). Variceal bleeding as an isolated further decompensation event was rare (n = 18, 3%), whereas non-bleeding further decompensation (n = 161, 26%) and ≥2 concomitant further decompensation events (n = 171, 27%) were frequent. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt was used in only 81 (13%) patients. In patients presenting with grade 2 ascites, MELD ≥15 indicated a considerable risk for further decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 2.18; p <0.001; 1-year incidences: <10: 10% vs. 10-14: 13% vs. ≥15: 28%) and of mortality (SHR 1.89; p = 0.004; 1-year incidences: <10: 3% vs. 10-14: 6% vs. ≥15: 14%). Importantly, mortality was similarly high throughout MELD strata in grade 3 ascites (p = n.s. for different MELD strata; 1-year incidences: <10: 14% vs. 10-14: 15% vs. ≥15: 20%). Conclusions: Further decompensation is frequent in patients with ascites as a single index decompensation event and only rarely owing to bleeding. Although patients with grade 2 ascites and MELD <15 seem to have a favourable prognosis, those with grade 3 ascites are at a high risk of mortality across all MELD strata. Lay summary: Decompensation (the development of symptoms as a result of worsening liver function) marks a turning point in the disease course for patients with cirrhosis. Ascites (i.e. , the accumulation of fluid in the abdomen) is the most common first decompensating event, yet little is known about the clinical course of patients who develop ascites as a single first decompensating event. Herein, we show that the severity of ascites is associated with mortality and that in patients with moderate ascites, the widely used prognostic MELD score can predict patient outcomes.

Prognostic Nomograms for Hospital Survival and Transplant-Free Survival of Patients with Hepatorenal Syndrome: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis with a poor prognosis. To develop novel and effective nomograms which could numerically predict both the hospital survival and transplant-free survival of HRS, we retrospectively enrolled a cohort of 149 patients. A backward stepwise method based on the smallest Akaike information criterion value was applied to select the covariates to be included in the Cox proportional hazards models. The Harrell C-index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and Kaplan-Meier curves with the log-rank test were used to assess nomograms. The bootstrapping method with 1000 resamples was performed for internal validation. The nomogram predicting hospital survival included prothrombin activity, HRS clinical pattern, Child-Pugh class, and baseline serum creatinine. The C-index was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.65-0.78), and the adjusted C-index was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66-0.79). The nomogram predicting transplant-free survival included sex, prothrombin activity, HRS clinical pattern, model for end-stage liver disease-Na score, and peak serum creatinine. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.79), and the adjusted C-index was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68-0.79). The AUC and Brier score at 15, 30, and 45 days calculated from the hospital survival nomogram and those at 6, 12, and 18 months calculated from the transplant-free survival nomogram revealed good predictive ability. The two models can be used to identify patients at high risk of HRS and promote early intervention treatment.

Allograft liver failure awaiting liver transplantation in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Following liver transplantation (LT), allograft liver failure can be developed by various causes and requires re-LT. Hence, this study aimed to clarify the characteristics and prognostic factors of patients with allograft liver failure awaiting deceased donor LT (DDLT) in Japan. METHODS: Of the 2686 DDLT candidates in Japan between 2007 and 2016, 192 adult patients listed for re-LT were retrospectively enrolled in this study. Factors associated with waitlist mortality were assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model. The transplant-free survival probabilities were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test. RESULTS: The median period from the previous LT to listing for re-LT was 1548 days (range, 4-8449 days). Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), which was a primary indication, showed a higher listing probability for re-LT as compared with other primary etiologies. Recurrent liver disease was a leading cause of allograft failure and was more frequently observed in the primary indication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and PSC in contrast with other etiologies. Multivariate analysis identified the following independent risk factors associated with waitlist mortality: age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, mode for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and causes of allograft failure. CONCLUSIONS: Recurrent HCV and PSC were major causes of allograft liver failure in Japan. In addition to CTP and MELD scores, either serum ALT levels or causes of allograft failure should be considered as graft liver allocation measures.

Epidemiology and outcomes of primary sclerosing cholangitis: an Australian multicentre retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Little is known regarding the epidemiology and outcomes of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) in Australia. We, therefore, evaluated the epidemiology and clinical outcomes of PSC in a large cohort of Australian patients and compared these to the general population. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre, retrospective cohort study of PSC patients at nine tertiary liver centers across three Australian states, including two liver transplant centers. RESULTS: A total of 413 PSC patients with 3,285 person-years of follow-up were included. Three hundred and seventy-one (90%) patients had large duct PSC and 294 (71%) had associated inflammatory bowel disease. A total of 168 (41%) patients developed cirrhosis (including 34 at the time of PSC diagnosis) after a median of 15.8 (95% CI 12.4, NA) years. The composite endpoint of death or liver transplantation occurred in 49 (12%) and 78 (19%) patients, respectively, with a median transplant-free survival of 13.4 (95% CI 12.2-15) years. Compared to the general population, PSC accounted for a 240-fold increased risk of development of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) and CCA-related death. CCA risk was increased with older age of PSC diagnosis, presence of dominant stricture and colectomy. Compared to same-aged counterparts in the general population, PSC patients who were diagnosed at an older age or with longer disease duration had reduced relative survival. CONCLUSION: In this large retrospective cohort study of PSC patients in Australia, increased age and time from diagnosis was associated with increased mortality and morbidity particularly from CCA and development of cirrhosis, necessitating need for liver transplant.

N-acetylcysteine in non-acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

Introduction: There are discordant reports on N-acetylcysteine (NAC) efficacy in non-acetaminophen acute liver failure (ALF). Aim: To determine whether NAC is beneficial in non-acetaminophen ALF. Material and methods: We performed a systemic review and meta-analysis of published data to address the question. PubMed and MEDLINE were searched using the terms non-acetylcysteine and ALF due to non-acetaminophen, viral infection, drug-induced or autoimmune hepatitis. The primary outcome was overall mortality. Secondary outcomes were transplant-free survival and length of hospital stay. Risk ratios were calculated using a random model for meta-analysis. Results: A total of 672 patients were included in this meta-analysis from 5 prospective studies (NAC group: n = 334; control group: n = 338). Viral hepatitis (45.8% vs. 32.8%) followed by drug-induced liver injury (24.6% vs. 27.5%), indeterminate cause (13.2% vs. 21.6%) and autoimmune hepatitis (6.6% vs. 8.9%) were the most common etiologies of ALF in the treatment group and control group respectively. Treatment with N-acetylcysteine improved the transplant-free survival significantly (55.1% vs. 28.1%; RR = 0.56; 95% CI: 0.33-0.94) whereas the overall survival was not improved with NAC (71% vs. 59.8%; RR = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.48-1.09). The NAC treatment was associated with shorter hospital stay (standard difference in means (SMD) = -1.62; 95% CI: -1.84 to -1.40, p < 0.001). Conclusions: The treatment of patients with acute liver failure with N-acetylcysteine improved transplant-free survival and length of stay.