Multiple Causes of Death Associated with Pediatric Cardiopulmonary Arrest from 1996 to 2019 in Brazil. / Causas Múltiplas de Morte Associadas à Parada Cardiorrespiratória Pediátrica de 1996 a 2019 no Brasil.

BACKGROUND: In pediatrics, cardiopulmonary arrest (CPA) is associated with high mortality and severe neurologic sequelae. Information on the causes and mechanisms of death below the age of 20 years could provide theoretical support for health improvement among children and adolescents. OBJECTIVES: To conduct a population analysis of mortality rates due to primary and multiple causes of death below the age of 20 years in both sexes from 1996 to 2019 in Brazil, and identify the frequency in which CPA was recorded in the death certificates (DCs) of these individuals and the locations where the deaths occurred, in order to promote strategies to improve the prevention of deaths. METHOD: Ecological time-series study of deaths below the age of 20 years from 1996 to 2019, evaluating the mortality rates (MRs) and proportional mortality (PM) by primary cause of death. We analyzed the percentages of CPA recorded in any line of the DC and the location where the deaths occurred. We calculated the MRs per 100,000 inhabitants and the PM by primary cause of death under the age of 20 years according to sex and age group, the percentages of death from primary causes by age group when CPA was described in any line of Parts I and II of the DC, and the percentage of deaths from primary causes according to their location of occurrence. We retrieved the data from DATASUS, IBGE, and SINASC. RESULTS: From 1996 to 2019, there were 2,151,716 deaths below the age of 20 years in Brazil, yielding a mortality rate of 134.38 per 100,000 inhabitants. The death rate was highest among male neonates. Of all deaths, 249,334 (11.6%) had CPA recorded in any line of the DC. Specifically, CPA was recorded in 49,178 DCs between the ages of 1 and 4 years and in 88,116 of those between the ages of 29 and 365 days, corresponding, respectively, to 26% and 22% of the deaths in these age groups. These two age groups had the highest rates of CPA recorded in any line of the DC. The main primary causes of death when CPA was recorded in the sequence of death were respiratory, hematologic, and neoplastic diseases. CONCLUSION: Perinatal and external causes were the primary causes of death, with highest MRs under the age of 20 years in Brazil from 1996 to 2019. When multiple causes of death were considered, the main primary causes associated with CPA were respiratory, hematologic, and neoplastic diseases. Most deaths occurred in the hospital environment. Better understanding of the sequence of events in these deaths and improvements in teaching strategies in pediatric cardiopulmonary resuscitation are needed.

FUNDAMENTO: Em pediatria, a parada cardiorrespiratória (PCR) está associada a alta mortalidade e graves sequelas neurológicas. Informações sobre as causas e mecanismos de morte abaixo de 20 anos poderiam fornecer subsídios teóricos para a melhoria da saúde de crianças e adolescentes. OBJETIVOS: Realizar uma análise populacional das taxas de mortalidade por causas primárias e múltiplas de morte abaixo de 20 anos, em ambos os sexos, no período de 1996 a 2019, no Brasil, e identificar a frequência com que a PCR foi registrada nas declarações de óbito (DOs) desses indivíduos e os locais de ocorrência dos óbitos, a fim de promover estratégias para melhorar a prevenção de mortes. MÉTODO: Estudo ecológico de séries temporais de óbitos em indivíduos menores de 20 anos, no período de 1996 a 2019, avaliando as taxas de mortalidade (TMs) e a mortalidade proporcional (MP) por causa básica de morte. Foram analisados os percentuais de PCR registrados em qualquer linha da DO e o local de ocorrência dos óbitos. Foram calculadas as TMs por 100 mil habitantes e a MP por causa básica de morte nos menores de 20 anos segundo sexo e faixa etária, os percentuais de óbito por causas básicas por faixa etária quando a PCR foi descrita em qualquer linha das Partes I e II da DO, e o percentual de óbitos por causas básicas segundo o local de ocorrência. Os dados foram retirados do DATASUS, IBGE e SINASC. RESULTADOS: De 1996 a 2019, ocorreram 2.151.716 óbitos de menores de 20 anos, no Brasil, gerando uma taxa de mortalidade de 134,38 por 100 mil habitantes. A taxa de óbito foi maior entre os recém-nascidos do sexo masculino. Do total de óbitos, 249.334 (11,6%) tiveram PCR registrada em qualquer linha da DO. Especificamente, a PCR foi registrada 49.178 vezes na DO na faixa etária entre 1 e 4 anos e em 88.116 vezes entre 29 e 365 dias, correspondendo, respectivamente, a 26% e 22% dos óbitos nessas faixas etárias. Essas duas faixas etárias apresentaram as maiores taxas de PCR registradas em qualquer linha da DO. As principais causas básicas de óbito quando a PCR foi registrada na sequência de óbitos foram doenças respiratórias, hematológicas e neoplásicas. CONCLUSÃO: As causas perinatais e externas foram as principais causas de morte, com maior TM nos menores de 20 anos no Brasil de 1996 a 2019. Quando consideradas as causas múltiplas de morte, as principais causas primárias associadas à PCR foram as doenças respiratórias, hematológicas e neoplásicas. A maioria dos óbitos ocorreu no ambiente hospitalar. Melhor compreensão da sequência de eventos nesses óbitos e melhorias nas estratégias de ensino em ressuscitação cardiopulmonar pediátrica são necessárias.

Misclassification of causes of death among a small all-autopsied group of former nuclear workers: Death certificates vs. autopsy reports.

The U.S. Transuranium and Uranium Registries performs autopsies on each of its deceased Registrants as a part of its mission to follow up occupationally-exposed individuals. This provides a unique opportunity to explore death certificate misclassification errors, and the factors that influence them, among this small population of former nuclear workers. Underlying causes of death from death certificates and autopsy reports were coded using the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). These codes were then used to quantify misclassification rates among 268 individuals for whom both full autopsy reports and death certificates with legible underlying causes of death were available. When underlying causes of death were compared between death certificates and autopsy reports, death certificates correctly identified the underlying cause of death's ICD-10 disease chapter in 74.6% of cases. The remaining 25.4% of misclassified cases resulted in over-classification rates that ranged from 1.2% for external causes of mortality to 12.2% for circulatory disease, and under-classification rates that ranged from 7.7% for external causes of mortality to 47.4% for respiratory disease. Neoplasms had generally lower misclassification rates with 4.3% over-classification and 13.3% under-classification. A logistic regression revealed that the odds of a match were 2.8 times higher when clinical history was mentioned on the autopsy report than when it was not. Similarly, the odds of a match were 3.4 times higher when death certificates were completed using autopsy findings than when autopsy findings were not used. This analysis excluded cases where it could not be determined if autopsy findings were used to complete death certificates. The findings of this study are useful to investigate the impact of death certificate misclassification errors on radiation risk estimates and, therefore, improve the reliability of epidemiological studies.

Descriptive study of causes of death and COVID-19-associated morbidities from the New York City electronic death record: first wave of the pandemic March-July 2020.

OBJECTIVE: Assessing excess deaths from benchmarks across causes of death during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and identifying morbidities most frequently mentioned alongside COVID-19 deaths in the death record. METHODS: Descriptive study of death records between 11 March 2020 and 27 July 2020, from the New York City Bureau of Vital Statistics. Mortality counts and percentages were compared with the average for the same calendar period of the previous 2 years. Distributions of morbidities from among forty categories of conditions were generated citywide and by sex, race/ethnicity and four age groups. Causes of death were assumed to follow Poisson processes for Z-score construction. RESULTS: Within the study period, 46 563 all-cause deaths were reported; 132.9% higher than the average for the same period of the previous 2 years (19 989). Of those 46 563 records, 19 789 (42.5%) report COVID-19 as underlying cause of death. COVID-19 was the most prevalent cause across all demographics, with respiratory conditions (prominently pneumonia), hypertension and diabetes frequently mentioned morbidities. Black non-Hispanics had greater proportions of mentions of pneumonia, hypertension, and diabetes. Hispanics had the largest proportion of COVID-19 deaths (52.9%). Non-COVID-19 excess deaths relative to the previous 2-year averages were widely reported. CONCLUSION: Mortality directly due to COVID-19 was accompanied by significant increases across most other causes from their reference averages, potentially suggesting a sizable COVID-19 death undercount. Indirect effects due to COVID-19 may partially account for some increases, but findings are hardly dispositive. Unavailability of vaccines for the time period precludes any impact over excess deaths. Respiratory and cardiometabolic-related conditions were most frequently reported among COVID-19 deaths across demographic characteristics.

Multicausal analysis of mortality due to diabetes mellitus in Spain, 2016-2018.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess multicausal mortality due to diabetes from 2016-2018 in Spain. Specific objectives were to quantify the occurrence of diabetes as an underlying cause or as any registered cause on the death certificate. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional descriptive study taking a multicausal approach. RESULTS: Diabetes appears as an underlying cause of 2.3% of total deaths in Spain, and as any cause in 6.2%. In patients in whom Diabetes appears as an underlying cause on the death certificates, the 15 most frequent immediate causes are cardiovascular diseases in men(prevalence ratio 1,59)and women (PR1,31). In men, the causes associated with diabetes as any cause were skin diseases(prevalence ratio 1.33), followed by endocrine diseases(prevalence ratio 1.26)and genitourinary diseases (prevalence ratio1.14). In women, the causes associated with the presence of diabetes as any cause were endocrine (prevalence ratio 1.13)and genitourinary (prevalence ratio 1.04)diseases. CONCLUSIONS: In patients in whom diabetes appears as an underlying cause on the death certificates, the 15 most frequent immediate causes are cardiovascular diseases. In men, the causes associated with the presence of diabetes as any cause of death are skin, endocrine and genitourinary diseases. In women, the causes associated with diabetes as any cause are endocrine and genitourinary.

Do Death Certificate Errors Decrease as Clinical Experience in an Emergency Department Increases?

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between clinical experience and death certificate (DC) errors by analyzing DCs written by experienced emergency physicians (EPs). METHODS: DCs issued by four experienced EPs over a 10-year period were retrospectively reviewed. DC errors were divided into major and minor errors based on whether they affected the cause of death (COD) determination. The errors were judged through first and second evaluations. Basic information regarding DCs and 10-year changes in DC errors were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 505 DCs were analyzed, with an average of 34 to 70 for each study year. The number of CODs written in the DCs tended to decrease over time. The presentation of major DC errors did not show a tendency to change over time. However, the sum of the major and minor errors tended to increase over time. Secondary conditions as the underlying COD tended to increase, and the incompatible causal relationships between CODs tended to decrease over time in the detailed analysis of major errors. The increasing tendency for incorrect other significant conditions, incorrect type of accident, incorrect intention of the external cause, no record of the trauma mechanism, and record of the trauma mechanism without another COD were found in the detailed analysis of minor errors. CONCLUSION: DC errors did not decrease as clinical experience increased. Education to reduce DC errors and a feedback process for written DCs are necessary, regardless of clinical experience.

Substance Use Overdose Deaths Among Black and Indigenous Women in Wisconsin: A Review of Death Certificate Data From 2018 to 2020.

OBJECTIVES: We are in the midst of an overdose epidemic that has grown during the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic. In Wisconsin, overdose deaths increased 11-fold from 2000 to 2020, with over 1200 deaths in 2020. Because of disparities in substance use initiation, relapse, and treatment success among racially minoritized women, this study's purpose was to investigate overdose death rates among Black and Indigenous women in Wisconsin from 2018 to 2020. METHODS: Overdose death rates were examined under the following parameters: sex, race (Black, Indigenous, White), age, year, and manner of death. Logistic regression analysis was also conducted looking at death count data, with race, age, and year as potential predictor variables. RESULTS: Death rates (per 100,000) in 2018 were 14.1 (12.6-15.5) for White women, 20.8 (14.7-26.9) for Black women, and 26.5 (10.0-42.9) for Indigenous women; these rates increased in 2020 to 16.4 (14.8-17.9), 32.5 (25.0-40.0), and 59.9 (35.8-84.0) for White, Black, and Indigenous women, respectively. Regression findings illustrated that being Black or Indigenous and aged 15 to 44 or 45 to 64 years were significantly more likely to die from most causes of death (any drug, any opioid, prescription opioid, heroin, synthetic opioids, and cocaine; adjusted odds ratios > 1.25, P s < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms that deaths in Wisconsin are disproportionately higher in female minoritized populations. Understanding the complex intricacies between the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic coupled with barriers to treatment access or acceptability in these populations is urgently needed. It will take a multipronged approach to address the overdose epidemic and better serve these marginalized, vulnerable populations.

The National Association of Medical Examiners Position Paper on the Investigation and Certification of Pediatric Deaths From Environmental Neglect.

ABSTRACT: Pediatric deaths that occur because of environmental neglect often involve 4 common scenarios: (1) hyperthermia due to environmental exposure, (2) ingestion of an accessible drug or poison, (3) unwitnessed/unsupervised drownings, and (4) unsafe sleep practices. Given the same fact pattern, the manner of death will vary from accident to homicide to undetermined based on local custom and/or the certifier's training and experience. Medical examiner/coroner death certifications are administrative public health determinations made for vital statistical purposes. Because the manner of death is an opinion, it is understandable that manner determinations may vary among practitioners. No prosecutor, judge, or jury is bound by the opinions expressed on the death certificate. This position paper does not dictate how these deaths should be certified. Rather, it describes the challenges of the investigations and manner determinations in these deaths. It provides specific criteria that may improve consistency of certification. Because pediatric deaths often are of public interest, this paper provides the medical examiner/coroner with a professional overview of such manner determination issues to assist various stakeholders in understanding these challenges and variations.

Frequency and types of errors in clinician-composed death certificates for patients with or without autopsy in a hospital population.

BACKGROUND: Death certificate (DC) errors are common. At our institution, all deaths have a preliminary death certificate (PDC) written by a clinician and then revised by a pathologist prior to the clinician signing the final death certificate (FDC). In autopsy cases, the FDC is signed by the pathologist who performs the autopsy. METHODS: A total of 100 in-hospital deaths (50 with autopsy and 50 without) occurred in 2020 were arbitrarily selected from a tertiary care center. All PDCs and FDCs were compared to identify/classify errors as major (incorrect cause of death (COD) or significant contributing factors) or minor (abbreviations, inappropriate non-essential contributing factors, immediate/intermediate COD errors). Frequency of PDC errors was compared by autopsy status, duration of hospital stay and PDC author. RESULTS: Ninety percent of cases had at least one PDC error and 39% had a major error. Major errors were more common in autopsy cases (50% versus 28%, P = 0.035), although minor/overall errors were not. Error rates did not significantly differ for the other variables assessed. CONCLUSIONS: There is significance of having a pathologist review and revise DCs before they are signed. The increased frequency in major errors in cases with autopsy suggests that autopsy findings provided additional information to elucidate COD.

At-home asthma mortality unchanged despite declining mortality in other settings: US death certificate data (2000-2019).

BACKGROUND: Asthma mortality rates in the United States have declined since 1999; however, asthma mortality by place of death has not been comprehensively evaluated. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate temporal trends in asthma mortality rates and place of death in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a population-based analysis using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research platform to evaluate deaths with asthma as the underlying cause (2000-2019) among US residents of all ages. Absolute numbers of asthma-related deaths were described by place of death. Counts were applied to US Census Bureau population counts to calculate mortality rates per 100,000 persons. RESULTS: In the 20-year period evaluated, 67,695 asthma deaths were registered in the United States. An overall 32% decline in the asthma mortality rate was observed, from 1.43 to 0.98 per 100,000 persons from 2000 to 2019, respectively. Although asthma mortality rates declined in all medical facility locations, the at-home asthma mortality rate remained stable (0.32 and 0.34 per 100,000 persons in 2000 and 2019, respectively). Consequently, the proportion of at-home asthma deaths increased from 23% in 2000 to 2001 to 36% in 2018 to 2019. The distribution of place of death varied by age, sex, race, ethnicity, and geographic region. CONCLUSION: Despite an overall decline in asthma mortality in the United States, at-home asthma mortality has remained unchanged. In recent years, more than one-third of asthma deaths have occurred at home. These findings warrant further study and underscore the importance of increased efforts to identify and treat uncontrolled asthma across demographic groups.

[The Trend in Places of Death Over Two Decades in the City of Muenster - an Observational Study Based on evaluated Death Certificates]. / Sterbeortentwicklung über zwei Jahrzehnte in der Stadt Münster ­ eine Observationsstudie auf Basis ausgewerteter Todesbescheinigungen.

Aim of the study The study examined the distribution of places of death in the Westphalian city of Muenster over an observation period of 20 years.Methods All death certificates issued in the city of Muenster from 2001, 2011, 2017, 2021 were evaluated by places of death (home (HO), hospital (HT), hospice (HP), nursing home (NH), other place (OP)). For hospital patients, deaths on intensive care units (ICU) and palliative care units (PAL) were also considered separately. Any medical information on cause of death was used to identify decedents with malignant tumor or dementia disease.Results A total of 14,240 death certificates were evaluated. A malignant tumor disease was documented in 34.0%, dementia in 11.1%. For the general population, the distribution of places of death was as follows (2001/2021; %): HO (24.0/14.6); HT (63.2/60.2) [ICU (13.3/24.6), PAL (0.0/10.9)], HP (3.8/4.9), NH (7.8/19.5), OP (1.1/0.7). Most tumor patients died in hospital (2021: 60.6%), fewer patients at home (2021: 15.4%). From 2001 to 2021, the proportion of cancer patients who died in a PAL increased significantly (+24.4%); hospices showed a moderate increase (+5.0%). A majority of dementia patients died in nursing homes (2021: 66.6%) and fewer patients at home (2021: 12.2%).Conclusion For the general population and for tumor patients, the hospital is the most common place of death and the nursing home for patients with dementia. Overall, deaths at home decreased continuously over time. For tumor patients, palliative care units and hospices are becoming increasingly important as places of death, and for dementia patients, nursing homes in particular.

Need for Improved Timeliness of Reporting on Drug Overdose Fatalities: The HEALing Communities Study.

OBJECTIVE: Timely data on drug overdose deaths can help identify community needs, evaluate the effectiveness of interventions, and allocate resources. We identified variations in death investigation and reporting systems within and between states that affect the timeliness and accuracy of death certificate information. METHODS: The HEALing Communities Study (HCS) is a community-engaged, data-driven approach to combating the opioid crisis in 67 communities in 4 states: Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. HCS conducted a survey of coroners and medical examiners to understand variability in drug overdose death data. We compared survey results in Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio with national data to investigate the completeness of provisional death counts by type of death investigation system. RESULTS: Communities in each HCS state had different ways of collecting and reporting mortality data. Completion of death certificates for drug overdoses ranged from <2 weeks in 23% (7 of 31) of those surveyed to more than 3 months in 10% (3 of 31) of those surveyed. Variabilities in the timeliness of reporting drug overdose deaths were not associated with type of coroner or medical examiner office in each state, urban versus rural setting, or specificity of drug information on the death certificate. CONCLUSION: Having specific drug information on the death certificate may increase death certificate quality, comparability, and accuracy. We recommend the following: (1) all coroners and medical examiners should be trained on conducting death investigations, interpreting toxicology reports, and completing death certificates; (2) 1 office in each state should oversee all coroners and medical examiners to increase data consistency; and (3) communities should identify and address barriers to timely death certification.

Analysis of maternal mortality in Berlin, Germany - discrepancy between reported maternal mortality and comprehensive death certificate exploration.

OBJECTIVES: The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates an average maternal mortality rate (MMR) of around 3.4 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births for 2019-2021, based on relevant diagnoses on death certificates. However, Germany does not currently have a registry for recording the number of maternal deaths. The aim of this study is to identify the actual number of maternal deaths in Berlin between 2019 and 2022, as well as sources of underreporting and causes of death. METHODS: Potential maternal mortality cases were identified through a search at the Berlin Central Archive for Death Certificates, inquiring women aged 15-50 years with indications of present or recent pregnancy on the death certificate. To cross match the database, an additional search at the Charité University Hospital Berlin was carried out, checking each individual file for pregnancy-association. RESULTS: The data search resulted in 2,316 women, 18 of which presented an association to pregnancy. Of these, 12 could be classified as maternal mortality cases (MMR 7.8/100,000). The additional search in a university setting revealed two further maternal mortality cases without prior indication of pregnancy on the death certificate. This results in a total MMR of 9.1/100,000 live births, which is over double the official estimate by the OECD. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our findings in Berlin, it can be estimated that there is significant underreporting regarding maternal death cases in Germany. A more comprehensive recording system is needed to more accurately portray maternal mortality.

Deaths: Leading Causes for 2020.

Objectives-This report presents final 2020 data on the 10 leading causes of death in the United States by age, race and Hispanic origin, and sex. Leading causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal death are also presented. This report supplements "Deaths: Final Data for 2020," the National Center for Health Statistics' annual report of final mortality statistics. Methods-Data in this report are based on information from all death certificates filed in the 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2020. Causes of death classified by the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) are ranked according to the number of deaths. Cause-of-death statistics are based on the underlying cause of death. Race and Hispanicorigin data are based on the Office of Management and Budget's 1997 standards for reporting race and Hispanic origin. Results-In 2020, many of the 10 leading causes of death changed rank order due to the emergence of COVID-19 as a leading cause of death in the United States. The 10 leading causes of death in 2020 were, in rank order: Diseases of heart; Malignant neoplasms; COVID-19; Accidents (unintentional injuries); Cerebrovascular diseases; Chronic lower respiratory diseases; Alzheimer disease; Diabetes mellitus; Influenza and pneumonia; and Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis. They accounted for 74.1% of all deaths occurring in the United States. Differences in the rankings are evident by age, race and Hispanic origin, and sex. Leading causes of infant death for 2020 were, in rank order: Congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities; Disorders related to short gestation and low birth weight, not elsewhere classified; Sudden infant death syndrome; Accidents (unintentional injuries); Newborn affected by maternal complications of pregnancy; Newborn affected by complications of placenta, cord and membranes; Bacterial sepsis of newborn; Respiratory distress of newborn; Diseases of the circulatory system; and Neonatal hemorrhage.

Effects of inappropriate cause-of-death certification on mortality from cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus in Tonga.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus are major health issues in Tonga and other Pacific countries, although mortality levels and trends are unclear. We assess the impacts of cause-of-death certification on coding of CVD and diabetes as underlying causes of death (UCoD). METHODS: Tongan records containing cause-of-death data (2001-2018), including medical certificates of cause-of-death (MCCD), had UCoD assigned according to International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) coding rules. Deaths without recorded cause were included to ascertain total mortality. Diabetes and hypertension causes were reallocated from Part 1 of the MCCD (direct cause) to Part 2 (contributory cause) if potentially fatal complications were not recorded, and an alternative UCoD was assigned. Proportional mortality by cause based on the alternative UCoD were applied to total deaths then mortality rates calculated by age and sex using census/intercensal population estimates. CVD and diabetes mortality rates for unaltered and alternative UCoD were compared using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Over 2001-18, in ages 35-59 years, alternative CVD mortality was higher than unaltered CVD mortality in men (p = 0.043) and women (p = 0.15); for 2010-18, alternative versus unaltered measures in men were 3.3/103 (95%CI: 3.0-3.7/103) versus 2.9/103 (95%CI: 2.6-3.2/103), and in women were 1.1/103 (95%CI: 0.9-1.3/103) versus 0.9/103 (95%CI: 0.8-1.1/103). Conversely, alternative diabetes mortality rates were significantly lower than the unaltered rates over 2001-18 in men (p < 0.0001) and women (p = 0.013); for 2010-18, these measures in men were 1.3/103 (95%CI: 1.1-1.5/103) versus 1.9/103 (95%CI: 1.6-2.2/103), and in women were 1.4/103 (95%CI: 1.2-1.7/103) versus 1.7/103 (95%CI: 1.5-2.0/103). Diabetes mortality rates increased significantly over 2001-18 in men (unaltered: p < 0.0001; alternative: p = 0.0007) and increased overall in women (unaltered: p = 0.0015; alternative: p = 0.014). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes reporting in Part 1 of the MCCD, without potentially fatal diabetes complications, has led to over-estimation of diabetes, and under-estimation of CVD, as UCoD in Tonga. This indicates the importance of controlling various modifiable risks for atherosclerotic CVD (including stroke) including hypertension, tobacco use, and saturated fat intake, besides obesity and diabetes. Accurate certification of diabetes as a direct cause of death (Part 1) or contributory factor (Part 2) is needed to ensure that valid UCoD are assigned. Examination of multiple cause-of-death data can improve understanding of the underlying causes of premature mortality to better inform health planning.

Collider and reporting biases involved in the analyses of cause of death associations in death certificates: an illustration with cancer and suicide.

BACKGROUND: Mortality data obtained from death certificates have been studied to explore causal associations between diseases. However, these analyses are subject to collider and reporting biases (selection and information biases, respectively). We aimed to assess to what extent associations of causes of death estimated from individual mortality data can be extrapolated as associations of disease states in the general population. METHODS: We used a multistate model to generate populations of individuals and simulate their health states up to death from national health statistics and artificially replicate collider bias. Associations between health states can then be estimated from such simulated deaths by logistic regression and the magnitude of collider bias assessed. Reporting bias can be approximated by comparing the estimates obtained from the observed death certificates (subject to collider and reporting biases) with those obtained from the simulated deaths (subject to collider bias only). As an illustrative example, we estimated the association between cancer and suicide in French death certificates and found that cancer was negatively associated with suicide. Collider bias, due to conditioning inclusion in the study population on death, increasingly downwarded the associations with cancer site lethality. Reporting bias was much stronger than collider bias and depended on the cancer site, but not prognosis. RESULTS: The magnitude of the biases ranged from 1.7 to 9.3 for collider bias, and from 4.7 to 64 for reporting bias. CONCLUSIONS: These results argue for an assessment of the magnitude of both collider and reporting biases before performing analyses of cause of death associations exclusively from mortality data. If these biases cannot be corrected, results from these analyses should not be extrapolated to the general population.