Epidemiological, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Aspects of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Morocco: A Case Series and Review of Literature.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver tumor. It is considered a global public health problem given its incidence and high mortality rate. Epidemiological studies on hepatocellular carcinoma in our Moroccan and North African contexts are rare. Hence, our study aims to determine the epidemiological, clinical, paraclinical, etiological and therapeutic aspects of this pathology in our context. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a descriptive retrospective study on patients with HCC treated by the Hepato-gastroenterology department of the university hospital of Mohammed VI in Marrakech over a period of 7 years spread between 01/01/2015 and 31/12/2021. The epidemiological characteristics, diagnostic methods and therapeutic management of HCC in these patients have been described and analyzed. RESULTS: 100 patients with HCC were identified and included in our study. The average age was 63.3 ± 12.63 years with a male predominance. The predominant etiology was cirrhosis (87% of cases) then viral hepatitis C (35%) and B (27%) and of unknown origin in 29% of cases. HCC revealed cirrhosis in 41% and was diagnosed during cirrhosis surveillance in 36% of cases. The functional signs were dominated by abdominal pain (68%), deterioration of general condition (58%) and abdominal distension (43%). Alfa-fetoprotein was elevated in 73% of cases and was above 400ng/ml in 41% of cases. The diagnosis was mainly radiological in 92% and histological in 8% of cases. The radiological aspects of HCC were dominated by mononodular form (58%), a right lobar location (80%), a diameter greater than 5 cm (58%), a typical vascular aspect (86%) with portal thrombosis in 24% and metastases in 36% of cases, especially in lymph nodes. The majority of cirrhosis in our series was classified as Child-Pugh stage B (46%) at the time of diagnosis and most patients had an advanced stage of HCC with 31% at BCLC C and 28% at BCLC D. 72% of patients received palliative treatment, and only 6% received curative treatment. At the end of the study, 48% of patients had died with an overall survival of 6.5 months. CONCLUSION: Our study achieved its main objective by providing a snapshot of HCC in our context and confirmed that HCC remains with poor prognosis since its diagnosis is often late, limiting the therapeutic choices with a very short median survival. It also noted that the viral etiology remains the main cause of HCC in our population. Therefore, prevention remains the best therapeutic approach against HCC and the need for a national or at least a regional HCC registry in our country is essential in order to develop targeted preventive measures adapted to our context and to improve the diagnostic and therapeutic approaches for our patients.

Clinician-Level Knowledge and Barriers to Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance.

Importance: Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis is underused. Identifying potentially modifiable factors to address barriers in HCC surveillance is critical to improve patient outcomes. Objective: To evaluate clinician-level factors contributing to underuse of HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study included primary care clinicians (PCCs) and gastroenterology and hepatology clinicians at 5 safety-net health systems in the US. Clinicians were surveyed from March 15 to September 15, 2023, to assess knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, perceived barriers, and COVID-19-related disruptions in HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis. Data were analyzed from October to November 2023. Main Outcome and Measures: HCC surveillance knowledge was assessed with 6 questions querying the respondent's ability to correctly identify appropriate use of HCC surveillance. Attitudes, perceived barriers, and beliefs regarding HCC surveillance and perceived impact of the COVID-19 pandemic-related disruptions with HCC surveillance were assessed with a series of statements using a 4-point Likert scale and compared PCCs and gastroenterology and hepatology clinicians. Results: Overall, 347 of 1362 clinicians responded to the survey (25.5% response rate), among whom 142 of 237 (59.9%) were PCCs, 48 of 237 (20.3%) gastroenterology and hepatology, 190 of 236 (80.5%) were doctors of medicine and doctors of osteopathic medicine, and 46 of 236 (19.5%) were advanced practice clinicians. On HCC knowledge assessment, 144 of 270 (53.3%) scored 5 or more of 6 questions correctly, 37 of 48 (77.1%) among gastroenterology and hepatology vs 65 of 142 (45.8%) among PCCs (P < .001). Those with higher HCC knowledge scores were less likely to report barriers to HCC surveillance. PCCs were more likely to report inadequate time to discuss HCC surveillance (37 of 139 [26.6%] vs 2 of 48 [4.2%]; P = .001), difficulty identifying patients with cirrhosis (82 of 141 [58.2%] vs 5 of 48 [10.4%]; P < .001), and were not up-to-date with HCC surveillance guidelines (87 of 139 [62.6%] vs 5 of 48 [10.4%]; P < .001) compared with gastroenterology and hepatology clinicians. While most acknowledged delays during the COVID-19 pandemic, 62 of 136 PCCs (45.6%) and 27 of 45 gastroenterology and hepatology clinicians (60.0%) reported that patients with cirrhosis could currently complete HCC surveillance without delays. Conclusions and Relevance: In this survey study, important gaps in knowledge and perceived barriers to HCC surveillance were identified. Effective delivery of HCC education to PCCs and health system-level interventions must be pursued in parallel to address the complex barriers affecting suboptimal HCC surveillance in patients with cirrhosis.

A polygenetic risk score combined with environmental factors better predict susceptibility to hepatocellular carcinoma in Chinese population.

AIMS: This study aimed to investigate environmental factors and genetic variant loci associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Chinese population and construct a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) and polygenic risk score (PRS). METHODS: A case-control study was applied to confirm the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and environmental variables linked to HCC in the Chinese population, which had been screened by meta-analyses. wGRS and PRS were built in training sets and validation sets. Area under the curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were applied to evaluate the performance of the models. RESULTS: A total of 13 SNPs were included in both risk prediction models. Compared with wGRS, PRS had better accuracy and discrimination ability in predicting HCC risk. The AUC for PRS in combination with drinking history, cirrhosis, HBV infection, and family history of HCC in training sets and validation sets (AUC: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.84-0.89; AUC: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.89) increased at least 20% than the AUC for PRS alone (AUC: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.60-0.67; AUC: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.60-0.71). CONCLUSIONS: A novel model combining PRS with alcohol history, HBV infection, cirrhosis, and family history of HCC could be applied as an effective tool for risk prediction of HCC, which could discriminate at-risk individuals for precise prevention.

Insulin Use and The Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Insights and Implications.

In recent years, the incidence of diabetes mellitus and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been increasing worldwide, in the context of an increasing prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). In patients with diabetes mellitus, exogenous insulin is commonly prescribed and used in long-term settings. Recent studies suggest that insulin use may elevate the risk of HCC. A substantial body of work seeks to unpack the association between insulin use and the risk of developing HCC, although there may be conflicting evidence. Further validation is necessary to clarify the true relationship between insulin mechanisms and its hepatocarcinogenic effect. Given the burden of diabetic patients developing HCC, diabetologists and hepatologists must collaborate, particularly regarding the prevention and surveillance of HCC in diabetic patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance among people living with hepatitis B in Senegal (SEN-B): insights from a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is the predominant cause of hepatocellular carcinoma in west Africa, yet data on the incidence of HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma remain scarce. We aimed to describe the uptake and early outcomes of systematic ultrasound-based hepatocellular carcinoma screening in SEN-B, which is a prospective HBV cohort in Senegal. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we included treatment-naive, HBsAg-positive individuals who were referred to the two infectious diseases clinics (the Department of Tropical and Infectious Diseases and Ambulatory Treatment Center) at Fann University Hospital of Dakar, Senegal, between Oct 1, 2019, and Oct 31, 2022. All participants resided within the Dakar region. Participants underwent abdominal ultrasound, transient elastography, and clinical and virological assessments at inclusion and every 6 months. Liver lesions at least 1 cm in diameter on ultrasound were assessed using four-phase CT, MRI, or liver biopsy. Adherence to hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance was measured using the proportion of time covered, calculated by dividing the cumulative months covered by abdominal ultrasound examinations by the overall follow-up time, defined as the number of months from the date of cohort entry until the last recorded visit, hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosis, or death. Optimal adherence was defined as a proportion of time covered of 100%. FINDINGS: Overall, 755 (99·6%) of 758 participants had at least one abdominal ultrasound performed. The median age of the enrolled participants was 31 years (IQR 25-39), 355 (47·0%) of 755 participants were women, and 82 (10·9%) had a family history of hepatocellular carcinoma. 15 (2·0%) of 755 individuals were HBeAg positive, 206 (27·3%) of 755 individuals had HBV DNA of more than 2000 IU/mL, and 27 (3·6%) of 755 had elastography-defined liver cirrhosis. Of ten (1·3%) participants with a focal lesion at least 1 cm at initial assessment, CT or MRI ruled out hepatocellular carcinoma in nine, whereas imaging and subsequent liver biopsy confirmed one patient with hepatocellular carcinoma. Two further patients with hepatocellular carcinoma were diagnosed at study presentation due to the presence of portal thrombosis on ultrasound. Excluding the three participants with hepatocellular carcinoma identified at baseline, 752 participants were eligible for screening every 6 months. Median follow-up time was 12 months (IQR 6-18) and the median number of ultrasounds per patient was 3 (2-4). During 809·5 person-years of follow-up, one incident hepatocellular carcinoma was reported, resulting in an incidence rate of 1·24 cases per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0·18-8·80). Overall, 702 (93·0%) of 755 participants showed optimal hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance, but this proportion decreased to 77·8% (42 of 54 participants) after 24 months. INTERPRETATION: Hepatocellular carcinoma screening is feasible in HBV research cohorts in west Africa, but its longer-term acceptability needs to be evaluated. Long-term hepatocellular carcinoma incidence data are crucial for shaping tailored screening recommendations. FUNDING: Swiss National Science Foundation, the Swiss Cancer Research Foundation, the National Cancer Institute, and Roche Diagnostics. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Paraneoplastic Syndromes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Epidemiology, and Survival: A Retrospective Seven Years Study.

Background and Objectives: Liver cancer poses a significant global health threat, ranking among the top three causes of cancer-related deaths. Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) often present with symptoms associated with neoplasms or unusual clinical features such as paraneoplastic syndromes (PNS), including hypoglycemia, hypercholesterolemia, thrombocytosis, and erythrocytosis. Our study aimed to investigate the prevalence, clinical characteristics, and survival outcomes associated with PNS in HCC patients and assess each PNS's impact on patient survival. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of PNS clinical features and survival among consecutive HCC patients diagnosed at our department over seven years, comparing them with HCC patients without PNS. The study involved a retrospective data evaluation from 378 patients diagnosed with HCC between January 2016 and October 2023. Results: We obtained a PNS prevalence of 25.7%, with paraneoplastic hypercholesterolemia at 10.9%, hypoglycemia at 6.9%, erythrocytosis at 4.5%, and thrombocytosis at 3.4%. Patients with PNS tended to be younger and predominantly male. Multivariate analysis revealed a strong correlation between PNS and levels of alpha-fetoprotein and tumor size, with diabetes also showing a significant statistical association (p < 0.05). Subgroup analysis based on specific paraneoplastic syndromes demonstrated shorter survival in patients with PNS, albeit without significant statistical differences, except for hypoglycemia (p < 0.0001). Matched analysis indicated a shorter survival rate for patients with PNS, although no significant statistical differences were observed. Conclusions: PNS are frequently observed in HCC cases and are associated with unfavorable prognoses and decreased survival rates due to their correlation with increased tumor burdens. However, they do not independently predict poor survival. The impact of individual PNS on HCC prognosis varies.

Cholangiocarcinoma and Occupational Exposure to Asbestos: Insights From the Italian Pooled Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies supported the association between occupational exposure to asbestos and risk of cholangiocarcinoma (CC). Aim of the present study is to investigate this association using an update of mortality data from the Italian pooled asbestos cohort study and to test record linkage to Cancer Registries to distinguish between hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic/extrahepatic forms of CC. METHODS: The update of a large cohort study pooling 52 Italian industrial cohorts of workers formerly exposed to asbestos was carried out. Causes of death were coded according to ICD. Linkage was carried out for those subjects who died for liver or bile duct cancer with data on histological subtype provided by Cancer Registries. RESULTS: 47 cohorts took part in the study (57,227 subjects). We identified 639 causes of death for liver and bile duct cancer in the 44 cohorts covered by Cancer Registry. Of these 639, 240 cases were linked to Cancer Registry, namely 14 CC, 83 HCC, 117 cases with unspecified histology, 25 other carcinomas, and one case of cirrhosis (likely precancerous condition). Of the 14 CC, 12 occurred in 2010-2019, two in 2000-2009, and none before 2000. CONCLUSION: Further studies are needed to explore the association between occupational exposure to asbestos and CC. Record linkage was hampered due to incomplete coverage of the study areas and periods by Cancer Registries. The identification of CC among unspecific histology cases is fundamental to establish more effective and targeted liver cancer screening strategies.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening in a Contemporary Cohort of At-Risk Patients.

Importance: Cohort studies demonstrating an association of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening with reduced mortality are prone to lead-time and length-time biases. Objective: To characterize the clinical benefits of HCC screening, adjusting for lead-time and length-time biases, in a diverse, contemporary cohort of at-risk patients. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study of patients with HCC was conducted between January 2008 and December 2022 at 2 large US health systems. Data analysis was performed from September to November 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was screen-detected HCC, defined by abnormal screening-intent abdominal imaging or α-fetoprotein level within 6 months before diagnosis. Cox regression analysis was used to characterize differences in overall survival between patients with screen-detected and non-screen-detected HCC; lead-time and length-time adjustments were calculated using the Duffy parametric formula. Results: Among 1313 patients with HCC (mean [SD] age, 61.7 [9.6] years; 993 male [75.6%]; 739 [56.3%] with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A disease), HCC was screen-detected in 556 (42.3%) and non-screen detected in 757 (57.7%). Patients with screen-detected HCC had higher proportions of early-stage HCC (393 patients [70.7%] vs 346 patients [45.7%]; risk ratio [RR], 1.54; 95% CI, 1.41-1.70) and curative treatment receipt (283 patients [51.1%] vs 252 patients [33.5%]; RR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.34-1.74) compared with patients with non-screen-detected HCC. The screen-detected group had significantly lower mortality, which persisted after correcting for lead-time bias (hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.65-0.87) in fully adjusted models. Both groups had similar tumor doubling times (median [IQR], 3.8 [2.2-10.7] vs 5.6 [1.7-11.4] months) and proportions of indolent tumors (28 patients [35.4%] vs 24 patients [38.1%]; RR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.60-1.43). Adjustment for length-time bias decreased survival estimates, although 3-year and 5-year survival for patients with screen-detected HCC remained longer than that for patients with non-screen-detected HCC. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that HCC screening is associated with reduced mortality even after accounting for lead-time and length-time biases. However, these biases should be considered in future studies.

SGLT2i impact on HCC incidence in patients with fatty liver disease and diabetes: a nation-wide cohort study in South Korea.

This study evaluated the effect of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) on cancer development, particularly in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), in individuals with concomitant fatty liver disease (FLD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Using data from Korea's Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, we performed Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and T2DM (NAFLD-T2DM cohort) and those with chronic viral hepatitis (CVH) alongside FLD and T2DM (FLD-T2DM-CVH cohort). In the propensity score (PS) matched NAFLD-T2DM cohort (N = 107,972), SGLT2i use was not associated with the occurrence of overall cancer, including HCC. However, old age, male sex, liver cirrhosis, and hypothyroidism were identified as independent risk factors for HCC occurrence, whereas statin and fibrate usage were associated with reduced HCC risk in this cohort in multivariate Cox analysis. In the PS-matched FLD-T2DM-CVH cohort (N = 2798), a significant decrease in HCC occurrence was observed among SGLT2i users (P = 0.03). This finding remained consistent in the multivariate Cox regression analysis (Hazard ratio = 2.21, 95% confidence interval = 1.01-4.85, P = 0.048). In conclusion, SGLT2i may be a beneficial option for diabetes management in patients with concomitant T2DM, FLD, and CVH while affirming the overall safety of SGLT2i in other types of cancer.

Burden, Outcome, and Comorbidities of Extrahepatic Manifestations in Hepatitis B Virus Infections.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections affect approximately 296 million people around the world, and the prevalence of any past or present HBV infection during the years 2015-2018 was as high as 4.3%. Acute HBV infection often presents with nonspecific symptoms and is usually self-limited, but 5% of patients can have persistent infections leading to chronic HBV infection and the risk of turning into chronic HBV infection is significantly higher in babies with vertical transmission (95%). Patients with chronic HBV infection are usually asymptomatic, but 15 to 40% of chronic HBV carriers develop cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. In addition to liver-related disorders, HBV is also associated with several extrahepatic complications, including glomerulonephritis, cryoglobulinemia, neurologic disorders, psychological manifestations, polyarthritis, and dermatologic disorders. Making the diagnosis of HBV can be challenging since patients with chronic infections can remain symptom-free for decades before developing cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma, and patients with acute HBV infection may have only mild, nonspecific symptoms. Therefore, understanding how this virus causes extrahepatic complications can help clinicians consider this possibility in patients with diverse symptom presentations. The pathophysiology of these extrahepatic disorders likely involves immune-related tissue injury following immune complex formation and inflammatory cascades. In some cases, direct viral infection of extrahepatic tissue may cause a clinical syndrome. Currently, the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases recommends treatment of chronic HBV infections with interferon therapy and/or nucleos(t)ide analogs, and this treatment has been reported to improve some extrahepatic disorders in some patients with chronic HBV infection. These extrahepatic complications have a significant role in disease outcomes and increase medical costs, morbidity, and mortality. Therefore, understanding the frequency and pathogenesis of these extrahepatic complications provides important information for both specialists and nonspecialists and may help clinicians identify patients at an earlier stage of their infection.

Routes to diagnosis for hepatocellular carcinoma patients: predictors and associations with treatment and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence has increased rapidly, and prognosis remains poor. We aimed to explore predictors of routes to diagnosis (RtD), and outcomes, in HCC cases. METHODS: HCC cases diagnosed 2006-2017 were identified from the National Cancer Registration Dataset and linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and the RtD metric. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore associations between RtD, diagnosis year, 365-day mortality and receipt of potentially curative treatment. RESULTS: 23,555 HCC cases were identified; 36.1% via emergency presentation (EP), 30.2% GP referral (GP), 17.1% outpatient referral, 11.0% two-week wait and 4.6% other/unknown routes. Odds of 365-day mortality was >70% lower via GP or OP routes than EP, and odds of curative treatment 3-4 times higher. Further adjustment for cancer/cirrhosis stage attenuated the associations with curative treatment. People who were older, female, had alcohol-related liver disease, or were more deprived, were at increased risk of an EP. Over time, diagnoses via EP decreased, and via GP increased. CONCLUSIONS: HCC RtD is an important predictor of outcomes. Continuing to reduce EP and increase GP and OP presentations, for example by identifying and regularly monitoring patients at higher risk of HCC, may improve stage at diagnosis and survival.

Impact of new direct-acting antiviral therapy on the prevalence and undiagnosed proportion of chronic hepatitis C infection.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) can be cured with the new highly effective interferon-free combination treatments (DAA) that were approved in 2014. However, CHC is a largely silent disease, and many individuals are unaware of their infections until the late stages of the disease. The impact of wider access to effective treatments and improved awareness of the disease on the number of infections and the number of patients who remain undiagnosed is not known in Canada. Such evidence can guide the development of strategies and interventions to reduce the burden of CHC and meet World Health Organization's (WHO) 2030 elimination targets. The purpose of this study is to use a back-calculation framework informed by provincial population-level health administrative data to estimate the prevalence of CHC and the proportion of cases that remain undiagnosed in the three most populated provinces in Canada: British Columbia (BC), Ontario and Quebec. METHODS: We have conducted a population-based retrospective analysis of health administrative data for the three provinces to generate the annual incidence of newly diagnosed CHC cases, decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and HCV treatment initiations. For each province, the data were stratified in three birth cohorts: individuals born prior to 1945, individuals born between 1945 and 1965 and individuals born after 1965. We used a back-calculation modelling approach to estimate prevalence and the undiagnosed proportion of CHC. The historical prevalence of CHC was inferred through a calibration process based on a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The algorithm constructs the historical prevalence of CHC for each cohort by comparing the model-generated outcomes of the annual incidence of the CHC-related health events against the data set of observed diagnosed cases generated in the retrospective analysis. RESULTS: The results show a decreasing trend in both CHC prevalence and undiagnosed proportion in BC, Ontario and Quebec. In 2018, CHC prevalence was estimated to be 1.23% (95% CI: .96%-1.62%), .91% (95% CI: .82%-1.04%) and .57% (95% CI: .51%-.64%) in BC, Ontario and Quebec respectively. The CHC undiagnosed proportion was assessed to be 35.44% (95% CI: 27.07%-45.83%), 34.28% (95% CI: 26.74%-41.62%) and 46.32% (95% CI: 37.85%-52.80%) in BC, Ontario and Quebec, respectively, in 2018. Also, since the introduction of new DAA treatment in 2014, CHC prevalence decreased from 1.39% to 1.23%, .97% to .91% and .65% to .57% in BC, Ontario and Quebec respectively. Similarly, the CHC undiagnosed proportion decreased from 38.78% to 35.44%, 38.70% to 34.28% and 47.54% to 46.32% in BC, Ontario and Quebec, respectively, from 2014 to 2018. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated that the CHC prevalence and undiagnosed proportion have declined for all three provinces since the new DAA treatment has been approved in 2014. Yet, our findings show that a significant proportion of HCV cases remain undiagnosed across all provinces highlighting the need to increase investment in screening. Our findings provide essential evidence to guide decisions about current and future HCV strategies and help achieve the WHO goal of eliminating hepatitis C in Canada by 2030.

CAMP-B score predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B after HBsAg seroclearance.

BACKGROUND: Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). AIMS: To identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for HCC development. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed patients with CHB with HBsAg seroclearance. Primary outcome was HCC development. Factors identified from a multivariate Cox model in the training cohort, consisting of 3476 patients from two Korean hospitals, were used to construct the prediction model. External validation was performed using data from 5255 patients in Hong Kong. RESULTS: In the training cohort, HCC occurred in 102 patients during 24,019 person-years of observation (0.43%/year). Risk scores were assigned to cirrhosis (C:3), age ≥50 years (A:2), male sex (M:3) and platelet count <150,000/mm3 (P:1); all were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC in multivariate analysis The time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves for 5, 10 and 15 years in the training and validation cohorts were 0.782, 0.817 and 0.825 and 0.785, 0.771 and 0.796, respectively. In the validation cohort, 85 patients developed HCC (0.24%/year). The corresponding incidence of HCC in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups were 0.07%, 0.37% and 0.90%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The CAMP-B score (cirrhosis, age ≥50 years, male sex and platelet count <150,000/mm3/L) was significantly associated with HCC development after HBsAg seroclearance. CAMP-B score can be easily implemented in real-world clinical practice and helps stratify HCC risk in patients with CHB following HBsAg seroclearance.

Developing deep learning-based strategies to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease from electronic health records.

OBJECTIVE: The accuracy of deep learning models for many disease prediction problems is affected by time-varying covariates, rare incidence, covariate imbalance and delayed diagnosis when using structured electronic health records data. The situation is further exasperated when predicting the risk of one disease on condition of another disease, such as the hepatocellular carcinoma risk among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease due to slow, chronic progression, the scarce of data with both disease conditions and the sex bias of the diseases. The goal of this study is to investigate the extent to which the aforementioned issues influence deep learning performance, and then devised strategies to tackle these challenges. These strategies were applied to improve hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. METHODS: We evaluated two representative deep learning models in the task of predicting the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in a cohort of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (n = 220,838) from a national EHR database. The disease prediction task was carefully formulated as a classification problem while taking censorship and the length of follow-up into consideration. RESULTS: We developed a novel backward masking scheme to deal with the issue of delayed diagnosis which is very common in EHR data analysis and evaluate how the length of longitudinal information after the index date affects disease prediction. We observed that modeling time-varying covariates improved the performance of the algorithms and transfer learning mitigated reduced performance caused by the lack of data. In addition, covariate imbalance, such as sex bias in data impaired performance. Deep learning models trained on one sex and evaluated in the other sex showed reduced performance, indicating the importance of assessing covariate imbalance while preparing data for model training. CONCLUSIONS: The strategies developed in this work can significantly improve the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Furthermore, our novel strategies can be generalized to apply to other disease risk predictions using structured electronic health records, especially for disease risks on condition of another disease.

Prognostic analysis of sex and age in hepatocellular carcinoma: a SEER study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore the impact of sex on clinical features and survival among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. METHODS: HCC case data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for the period 2010 to 2015 were selected for analysis. Kaplan-Meier curves displayed overall survival. Univariate cox regression examined the prognostic characteristics of individual features, and multivariate Cox regression assessed hazard ratios. RESULTS: This study comprised 3486 HCC patients, with 2682 males and 804 females. Across all age groups, there was a higher prevalence of males compared to females. Survival curves among female patients showed no significant differences across various age groups. However, among male patients, those under 60 demonstrated notably higher survival rates compared to those aged 60 and above. Regarding various ethnicities, TNM staging systems, tumor sizes, the presence of lung/bone/brain metastases, location in Purchased/Referred Care Delivery Areas, SEER historic stages, tumor grades, and individuals receiving chemotherapy, the proportion of male patients consistently exceeded that of female patients. Within the female patient group, individuals receiving chemotherapy exhibited significantly higher survival rates compared to those who did not. However, the administration of chemotherapy showed no significant impact on the survival rate of male patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed age, gender, and the administration of chemotherapy key factors influencing the overall survival prognosis. CONCLUSION: Age, gender, and the administration of chemotherapy are influential factors in the prognosis of both male and female HCC patients.

Meta-analysis: Incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with Fontan palliation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Fontan palliation is the final stage of surgery for many children born with univentricular physiology. Almost all Fontan patients develop liver fibrosis which may eventually lead to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). These are important causes of morbidity and mortality in these patients. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the incidence of cirrhosis and HCC in Fontan patients and stratify it based on time since surgery. METHODS: A literature search of seven databases identified 1158 records. Studies reporting the number of cirrhosis and HCC cases in Fontan patients and time since Fontan surgery were included. In the cirrhosis cohort, we included only those studies where all patients underwent liver biopsy. RESULTS: A total of 23 studies were included: 12 and 13 studies in the cirrhosis and HCC cohorts, respectively, with two studies included in both cohorts. The incidence of cirrhosis was 0.97 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 0.57-1.63), with the incidence and cumulative incidence ≥20 years post Fontan surgery being 1.61 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.24-2.08) and 32.2% (95% CI 25.8%-39.4%), respectively. The incidence of HCC was 0.12 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 0.07-0.21), with the incidence and cumulative incidence ≥20 years post Fontan surgery being 0.20 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 0.12-0.35) and 3.9% (95% CI 2.2%-6.8%), respectively. Only about 70% of patients with HCC (20/28) had underlying cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: The incidence of cirrhosis and HCC increases over time, especially at ≥20 years post Fontan surgery. Studies are needed to further identify at-risk patients in order to streamline surveillance for these highly morbid conditions.

Prevalence of Malnutrition in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Comparative Study of GLIM Criteria, NRS2002, and PG-SGA, and Identification of Independent Risk Factors.

AIM: Malnutrition is prevalent in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, linked to poor outcomes, necessitating early intervention. This study aimed to investigate malnutrition in HCC patients, assess Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002) and Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) vs. Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) criteria, and identify independent risk factors. METHOD: A cross-sectional retrospective study was conducted on 207 patients with HCC. Nutritional screening/assessment results and blood samples were collected within 72 h of admission. This study assessed the prevalence of malnutrition using the NRS-2002 and PG-SGA and retrospectively using the GLIM criteria. The performance of the screening tools was evaluated using kappa (K) values. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine whether laboratory parameters were associated with malnutrition as identified by the GLIM criteria. RESULTS: Of the participants, 30.4% were at risk of malnutrition according to NRS-2002. The agreement between the NRS-2002 and GLIM criteria was substantial. The GLIM criteria and PG-SGA diagnosed malnutrition in 43 and 54.6% of the participants, respectively. Age, anemia, and ascites correlated with malnutrition in regression. CONCLUSION: The GLIM criteria, along with NRS-2002 and PG-SGA, aid in diagnosing malnutrition in HCC patients. Recognizing risk factors improves accuracy, enabling timely interventions for better outcomes.