Long-term outcomes in patients with primary biliary cholangitis complicated with CREST syndrome.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is frequently associated with autoimmune disease. Although PBC complicated with CREST syndrome (PBC-CREST) has been reported, the long-term outcomes of the affected patients have not been fully investigated. Herein, the long-term outcomes of PBC-CREST were evaluated. Next, the GLOBE and UK-PBC scores were validated and compared between the PBC alone and PBC-CREST groups. A total of 302 patients who were diagnosed with PBC between December 1990 and August 2021 at Fukushima Medical University Hospital were included. The liver transplantation (LT)-free survival rates were compared between patients with PBC alone (n = 245) and those with PBC-CREST (n = 57). Moreover, 173 patients, excluding those with liver-related death/LT within 1 year after ursodeoxycholic acid administration, were divided into two subgroups (PBC alone (n = 147) and PBC-CREST (n = 26)), and the GLOBE and UK-PBC scores were compared between the subgroups. The survival rates without LT (3/5/10 years) were 92/87/80% for the PBC-alone group and 98/96/96% for the PBC-CREST group, with a significantly better prognosis in the PBC-CREST group (log-rank P = 0.0172). Multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of CREST syndrome is an independent protective factor for the presence of cirrhosis. The predicted 5/10/15-year risks of liver-related death or LT based on the UK-PBC score were significantly lower in the PBC-CREST group (2.4/7.6/13.2%) than in the PBC-alone group (4.8/11.8/18.8%) (P < 0.05). The predicted 3/5-year LT-free survival rates based on the GLOBE score were significantly higher in the PBC-CREST group (93/88%) than in the PBC-alone group (88/81%) (P < 0.05). Patients with PBC-CREST may have better long-term outcomes than those with PBC alone.

Comorbidities, mortality and metabolic profile in individuals with primary biliary cholangitis-A Phenome-Wide-Association-Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic, immune-mediated liver disease that can lead to fibrosis and cirrhosis. In this cohort study, we aimed to investigate morbidity and mortality in conjunction with metabolomic changes of PBC in a UK population-based cohort. METHODS: 454 participants with PBC and 908 propensity score (age, sex, BMI, ethnicity) matched controls without liver disease were included in the study. A subset of participants with PBC and controls were analysed for their metabolomic profile. Further, PBC-associated comorbidities were investigated by PheWAS analysis. Lastly, we assessed causes of death in individuals with PBC using a Fine and Grey competing-risks regression model. RESULTS: Compared to the control group, various pathways associated with the metabolism of amino acids, lipids, and liver biochemistry were significantly enriched in individuals with PBC. We found reduced levels of S-HDL-cholesterol and Glycoprotein Acetyls in individuals with PBC as well as an association with diseases of the circulatory system. Notably, PBC individuals had a higher prevalence of digestive diseases, autoimmune diseases, cardiovascular diseases, anaemias, mental disorders, and urinary tract infections compared to the control group. Strikingly, the overall mortality was almost three times higher in the PBC group compared to the control group, with diseases of the digestive system accounting for a significant elevation of the death rate. A subsequent analysis, enhanced by propensity score matching that included the APRI score, demonstrated that the observed morbidity could not be exclusively attributed to advanced hepatic disease. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides a detailed perspective on the morbidity of individuals with PBC. The exploration of potential effects of disease state on morbidity suggest that early detection and early treatment of PBC could enhance patient prognosis and prevent the onset of comorbid diseases. Finally, the metabolomic alterations could represent a link between the pathophysiological processes underlying PBC development, progression, and associated morbidity.

Pursuing living donor liver transplantation improves outcomes of patients with autoimmune liver diseases: An intention-to-treat analysis.

Living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) offers the opportunity to decrease waitlist time and mortality for patients with autoimmune liver disease (AILD), autoimmune hepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis, and primary sclerosing cholangitis. We compared the survival of patients with a potential living donor (pLDLT) on the waitlist versus no potential living donor (pDDLT) on an intention-to-treat basis. Our retrospective cohort study investigated adults with AILD listed for a liver transplant in our program between 2000 and 2021. The pLDLT group comprised recipients with a potential living donor. Otherwise, they were included in the pDDLT group. Intention-to-treat survival was assessed from the time of listing. Of the 533 patients included, 244 (43.8%) had a potential living donor. Waitlist dropout was higher for the pDDLT groups among all AILDs (pDDLT 85 [29.4%] vs. pLDLT 9 [3.7%], p < 0.001). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year intention-to-treat survival rates were higher for pLDLT versus pDDLT among all AILDs (95.7% vs. 78.1%, 89.0% vs. 70.1%, and 87.1% vs. 65.5%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for covariates, pLDLT was associated with a 38% reduction in the risk of death among the AILD cohort (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.42-0.93 [ p <0.05]), and 60% among the primary sclerosing cholangitis cohort (HR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.22-0.74 [ p <0.05]). There were no differences in the 1-, 3-, and 5-year post-transplant survival between LDLT and DDLT (AILD: 95.6% vs. 92.1%, 89.9% vs. 89.4%, and 89.1% vs. 87.1%, p =0.41). This was consistent after adjusting for covariates (HR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.56-1.68 [ p >0.9]). Our study suggests that having a potential living donor could decrease the risk of death in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis on the waitlist. Importantly, the post-transplant outcomes in this population are similar between the LDLT and DDLT groups.

Influence of socioeconomic factors on liver transplant survival outcomes in patients with autoimmune liver disease in the United States.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Autoimmune liver diseases (AILDs): autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) have different survival outcomes after liver transplant (LT). Outcomes are influenced by factors including disease burden, medical comorbidities, and socioeconomic variables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the United Network for Organ Sharing database (UNOS), we identified 13,702 patients with AILDs listed for LT between 2002 and 2021. Outcomes of interest were waitlist removal, post-LT patient survival, and post- LT graft survival. A stepwise multivariate analysis was performed adjusting for transplant recipient gender, race, diabetes mellitus, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and additional social determinants including the presence of education, reliance on public insurance, working for income, and U.S. citizenship status. RESULTS: Lack of college education and having public insurance increased the risk of waitlist removal (HR, 1.13; 95 % CI, 1.05-1.23, and HR, 1.09; 95 % CI, 1.00-1.18; respectively), and negatively influenced post-LT patient survival (HR, 1.16; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.26, and HR, 1.15; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.25; respectively) and graft survival (HR, 1.13; 95 % CI, 1.05-1.23, and HR, 1.15; 95 % CI, 1.06-1.25; respectively). Not working for income proved to have the greatest detrimental impact on both patient survival (HR, 1.41; 95 % CI, 1.24-1.6) and graft survival (HR, 1.21; 95 % CI, 1.09-1.35). CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights that lack of college education and public insurance have a detrimental impact on waitlist mortality, patient survival, and graft survival. Not working for income negatively affects post-LT survival outcomes. Not having U.S. citizenship does not affect survival outcomes in AILDs patients.

Enhanced liver fibrosis score as a surrogate of liver-related complications and mortality in primary biliary cholangitis.

ABSTRACT: The presence of bridging fibrosis predicts survival of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). This study aimed to compare serum parameters for the estimation of liver fibrosis and prediction of clinical outcomes in PBC.Out of 392 patients with PBC, 102 who underwent liver biopsy and in whom fibrosis indices, platelet count, hyaluronic acid, type IV collagen 7 second domain, procollagen type III amino-terminal peptide, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 1, Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer, N-terminal type III collagen propeptide levels; fibrosis index based on 4 factors, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, and enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) score were determined, were included. The correlation of histological stages based on both Scheuer and Nakanuma classifications with fibrosis indices was investigated. The Nakanuma system comprises grading for liver fibrosis and bile duct loss. Diagnostic performances of 10 fibrosis indices were evaluated to identify patients with poor prognosis. Moreover, correlations of those with PBC clinical manifestation and survival were also investigated.Enhances liver fibrosis (ELF) score had the highest correlation coefficient for liver fibrosis evaluated according to either the Scheuer or Nakanuma classification among 10 serum fibrosis indices. It also had the highest diagnostic performance in estimating Scheuer stage III and Nakanuma fibrosis score 2, both of which represent portal-bridging fibrosis. Patients with an ELF score of ≥10.0 had shorter survival and presented more frequently clinical complications than those with an ELF score of <10.0.ELF score determines the severity of liver fibrosis and predicts the occurrence of complications and survival in patients with PBC.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Response Is Associated With Reduced Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis With Compensated Cirrhosis.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with cirrhosis and men have been under-represented in most studies examining the clinical benefit of response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim of this study was to study the association of UDCA response and liver-related death or transplantation, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with PBC cirrhosis. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of veterans, predominantly men, with PBC and compensated cirrhosis to assess the association of UDCA response with the development of all-cause and liver-related mortality or transplantation, hepatic decompensation, and HCC using competing risk time-updating Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We identified 501 subjects with PBC and compensated cirrhosis, including 287 UDCA responders (1,692.8 patient-years [PY] of follow-up) and 214 partial responders (838.9 PY of follow-up). The unadjusted rates of hepatic decompensation (3.8 vs 7.9 per 100 PY, P < 0.0001) and liver-related death or transplantation (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 PY, P < 0.0001) were lower in UDCA responders compared with partial responders. UDCA response was associated with a lower risk of hepatic decompensation (subhazard ratio [sHR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.95, P = 0.03), death from any cause or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio 0.49, 95% CI 0.33-0.72, P = 0.0002), and liver-related death or transplantation (sHR 0.40, 95% CI 0.24-0.67, P = 0.0004), but not HCC (sHR 0.39, 95% CI 0.60-2.55, P = 0.32). In a sensitivity analysis, the presence of portal hypertension was associated with the highest UDCA-associated effect. DISCUSSION: UDCA response is associated with a reduction in decompensation, all-cause, and liver-related death or transplantation in a cohort of predominantly male patients with cirrhosis, with the highest benefit in patients with portal hypertension.

A Comparison of Prognostic Scores (Mayo, UK-PBC, and GLOBE) in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative data on scores that predict outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are scarce. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic value of the Mayo Risk Score (MRS, 1989 and 1994), UK-PBC score, and GLOBE score in a large international cohort of patients with PBC. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from 7 centers participating in the GLOBAL PBC Study Group were included. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Model for End-stage Liver Disease was included for comparison. Prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted survival and actual survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses. RESULTS: A total of 1,100 ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC were included, with a mean (SD) age of 53.6 (12.0) years, of whom 1,003 (91%) were female. During a median follow-up of 7.6 (interquartile range 4.1-11.7) years, 42 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 127 patients died. At 1 year, the concordance statistic for Model for End-stage Liver Disease was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.72), 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) for the UK-PBC score, 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81) for the MRS (1989 and 1994), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) for the GLOBE score. The GLOBE score showed superior discriminatory performance, but differences were not statistically different. For all scores, discriminatory performance increased in those with bilirubin >0.6 × ULN and advanced fibrosis estimated with Fibrosis-4. The predicted (median) minus observed 5-year transplant-free survival was +0.4% and +2.5% for the MRS (1989) and GLOBE score, respectively. DISCUSSION: All prognostic scores developed for PBC (GLOBE, UK-PBC, and MRS) demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for liver transplantation or death as well as good prediction accuracy.

Association of bezafibrate with transplant-free survival in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A beneficial effect of bezafibrate (BZF) on symptoms and biochemical features of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has been reported in patients with an incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), but long-term effects on survival remain unknown. In Japan, BZF has been used as a de facto second-line therapy for PBC since 2000. Herein, we compared the survival rates between patients treated with and those without BZF in a large nationwide Japanese PBC cohort. METHODS: All consecutively registered patients of this cohort who started UDCA therapy from 2000 onwards and had a follow-up ≥1 year were included. Association between BZF exposure and mortality or need for liver transplantation (LT) was assessed using time-dependent, multivariable-and propensity score-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Clinical benefit was quantified using the number needed to treat (NNT). RESULTS: Of 3,908 eligible patients, 3,162 (81%) received UDCA only and 746 (19%) UDCA and BZF over 17,360 and 3,932 patient-years, respectively. During follow-up, 183 deaths (89 liver-related) and 21 LT were registered. Exposure to combination therapy was associated with a significant decrease in all-cause and liver-related mortality or need for LT (adjusted hazard ratios: 0.3253, 95% CI 0.1936-0.5466 and 0.2748, 95% CI 0.1336-0.5655, respectively; p <0.001 for both). This association was consistent across various risk groups at baseline. The NNTs with combination therapy to prevent 1 additional death or LT over 5, 10, and 15 years were 29 (95% CI 22-46), 14 (10-22), and 8 (6-15), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a large retrospective cohort study of treatment effects in patients with PBC, the addition of BZF to UDCA was associated with improved prognosis. LAY SUMMARY: The long-term efficacy of bezafibrate (BZF) on liver transplantation (LT) - free survival in patients with PBC and an incomplete response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) remains to be determined. In this Japanese nationwide retrospective cohort study, the use of UDCA-BZF combination therapy, compared to UDCA alone, was associated with a lower risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality or need for LT. These results indicate that BZF is so far the only drug in PBC to have demonstrated efficacy in improving symptoms, biochemical markers, and long-term outcomes.

Male Sex Is Associated With Higher Rates of Liver-Related Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The impact of sex on the postcirrhosis progression of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has not been well defined. Prior studies have suggested that men have worse outcomes but present at more advanced stages of fibrosis than women. This observation, however, has been limited by small numbers of men and even fewer patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We investigated the association of sex with the development of all-cause and liver-related mortality or transplantation, decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), using competing-risk time-updating Cox proportional hazards models in a large cohort of predominantly male patients with PBC cirrhosis assembled from the Veterans Health Administration. In a cohort of 532 participants (418 male) with PBC-related cirrhosis with a total follow-up of 3,231.6 person-years (PY) from diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis, male participants had a higher unadjusted rates of death or transplantation (8.5 vs. 3.8 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001), liver-related death or transplantation (5.5 vs. 2.7 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001), decompensation (5.5 vs. 4.0 per 100 PY; P = 0.002), and HCC (0.9 vs. 0.3 per 100 PY; P < 0.0001). After adjusting for confounders, male sex was associated with a higher risk of death or transplantation (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.01-3.19; P = 0.046), and liver-related death or transplantation (subhazard ratio, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.15-4.08; P = 0.02). A sensitivity analysis that defined ursodeoxycholic acid response as normalization of alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin revealed similar findings. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with PBC and well-compensated cirrhosis, male sex is associated with a higher risk of both death and liver-related death or transplantation.

Gender and Racial Differences in Hospitalizations for Primary Biliary Cholangitis in the USA.

BACKGROUND/AIM: The prevalence, characteristics, burden and trends of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) hospitalizations in the USA remain unclear. METHOD: We identified primary PBC hospitalizations from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) 2007 through 2014 using ICD-9-CM codes. We calculated the rates and trends of hospitalization for PBC per 100,000 US population among each gender (males and females) and racial categories (Whites, Blacks, Hispanics and other racial minorities), and measured the predictors of hospitalization, and of mortality, charges and length of stay (LOS) among PBC hospitalizations. RESULT: There were 8460 (weighted: 41,191) PBC hospitalizations between 2007 and 2014. The mean national PBC hospitalization rate was 2.2 cases per 100,000 population (2.2/100,000), increasing from 1.7/100,000 (2007) to 2.5/100,000 (2014). From 2007 to 2014, the in-hospital mortality and LOS were unchanged while the charges increased from $65,993 to $73,093 ($225 million to $447 million overall expenses). Compared to Whites, the PBC hospitalization rate was 12% higher among Hispanics (RR: 1.12 [1.09-1.16]), 53% lower in Blacks (RR: 0.47 [0.45-0.49]) and 5% lower among other racial minorities (0.95 [0.91-0.99]). The rate was higher among females (RR:4.02 [3.93-4.12]) compared to males. On multivariate analysis, Blacks and other racial minorities, respectively, had higher odds of mortality (AOR: 1.47 [1.03-2.10] and 1.33 [0.96-1.84]), while other racial minorities had longer LOS (7.0 vs. 5.6 days) and higher hospital charges ($48,984 vs. $41,495) when compared to Whites. CONCLUSION: The hospitalization rate and burden of PBC in the USA have increased disproportionately among females and Hispanics with higher mortality in Blacks.

The albumin-bilirubin score as a predictor of outcomes in Japanese patients with PBC: an analysis using time-dependent ROC.

The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score is calculated using only serum albumin and bilirubin levels, and was developed as a simple method to assess hepatic function. In this study, a total of 409 patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) were enrolled between March 1990 and October 2018. The predictive performances of the ALBI score and other well-established prognostic scores were compared using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. During the follow-up period, 60 patients died, 45 due to liver-related diseases and 15 due to non-liver-related diseases, and 16 patients underwent liver transplantation. Time-dependent ROC analysis showed that the ALBI score has higher the areas under the ROC curves (AUROCs) than the Child-Pugh (C-P) score at each time point; AUROCs at 3, 5, and 10 years after the start of follow-up were 0.94, 0.91, and 0.90 for the ALBI score, and 0.89, 0.88, and 0.82 for the C-P score, respectively. The ALBI score showed the highest AUROCs within 2 years after the start of observation; beyond 2 years, however, the Mayo score had better prognostic ability for mortality and liver transplantation. The ALBI score/grade, derived from objective blood tests, and the Mayo score were superior prognostic tools in PBC patients.

Score and deviance residuals based on the full likelihood approach in survival analysis.

Assuming the proportional hazards model and non-informative censoring, the full likelihood approach is used to obtain two new residuals. The first residual is based on the ideas used in obtaining score-type residuals similar to the partial likelihood approach. The second type of residual is based on the concept of deviance residuals. Extensive simulations are conducted to compare the performance of the residuals from the full likelihood-based approach with those of the partial likelihood method. We demonstrate through simulation studies that the full likelihood-based residuals are more efficient than their partial likelihood counterpart in identifying potential outliers when the censoring proportion is high. The graphical techniques are used to illustrate the applications of these residuals using some examples.

Diagnosis and treatment of primary biliary cholangitis.

Primary biliary cholangitis is a cholestatic, chronic autoimmune liver disease with a wide individual variation in disease progression. The diagnosis is predominantly based on chronic elevation of alkaline phosphatase and the presence of anti-mitochondrial antibodies or other specific antinuclear antibodies (i.e. anti-gp210 and anti-sp100). Even in early-stage disease, health-related quality of life can be severely impaired by symptoms such as pruritus, fatigue, and sicca syndrome and metabolic bone disease should be assessed and treated. The prognosis of the disease is, however, largely determined by the development of cirrhosis and its complications. Ursodeoxycholic acid is associated with an improved prognosis and should be initiated and continued in all patients. Clinical outcome is related to the biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid, but the prognosis of those with an incomplete response is still better than those who remain untreated. Obeticholic acid was recently approved as second-line treatment and bezafibrate may serve as an adequate off-label alternative, particularly in patients with pruritus. Preliminary data suggest an additive effect of triple therapy with ursodeoxycholic acid, obeticholic acid, and bezafibrate, whereas other promising drugs are being evaluated in clinical trials.

Long-term impact of preventive UDCA therapy after transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recurrence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) after liver transplantation (LT) is frequent and can impair graft and patient survival. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is the current standard therapy for PBC. We investigated the effect of preventive exposure to UDCA on the incidence and long-term consequences of PBC recurrence after LT. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in 780 patients transplanted for PBC, between 1983-2017 in 16 centers (9 countries), and followed-up for a median of 11 years. Among them, 190 received preventive UDCA (10-15 mg/kg/day). The primary outcome was histological evidence of PBC recurrence. The secondary outcomes were graft loss, liver-related death, and all-cause death. The association between preventive UDCA and outcomes was quantified using multivariable-adjusted Cox and restricted mean survival time (RMST) models. RESULTS: While recurrence of PBC significantly shortened graft and patient survival, preventive exposure to UDCA was associated with reduced risk of PBC recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.41; 95% CI 0.28-0.61; p <0.0001), graft loss (aHR 0.33; 95% CI 0.13-0.82; p <0.05), liver-related death (aHR 0.46; 95% CI 0.22-0.98; p <0.05), and all-cause death (aHR 0.69; 95% CI 0.49-0.96; p <0.05). On RMST analysis, preventive UDCA led to a survival gain of 2.26 years (95% CI 1.28-3.25) over a period of 20 years. Exposure to cyclosporine rather than tacrolimus had a complementary protective effect alongside preventive UDCA, reducing the cumulative incidence of PBC recurrence and all-cause death. CONCLUSIONS: Preventive UDCA after LT for PBC is associated with a reduced risk of disease recurrence, graft loss, and death. A regimen combining cyclosporine and preventive UDCA is associated with the lowest risk of PBC recurrence and mortality. LAY SUMMARY: Recurrence of primary biliary cholangitis after liver transplantation is frequent and can impair graft and patient survival. We performed the largest international study of transplanted patients with primary biliary cholangitis to date. Preventive administration of ursodeoxycholic acid after liver transplantation was associated with reduced risk of disease recurrence, graft loss, liver-related and all-cause mortality. A regimen combining cyclosporine and preventive ursodeoxycholic acid was associated with the best outcomes.

Two-stage optimal designs based on exact variance for a single-arm trial with survival endpoints.

Sample size calculation based on normal approximations is often associated with the loss of statistical power for a single-arm trial with a time-to-event endpoint. Recently, Wu (2015) derived the exact variance for the one-sample log-rank test under the alternative and showed that a single-arm one-stage study based on exact variance often has power above the nominal level while the type I error rate is controlled. We extend this approach to a single-arm two-stage design by using exact variances of the one-sample log-rank test for the first stage and the two stages combined. The empirical power of the proposed two-stage optimal designs is often not guaranteed under a two-stage design setting, which could be due to the asymptotic bi-variate normal distribution used to estimate the joint distribution of the test statistics. We adjust the nominal power level in the design search to guarantee the simulated power of the identified optimal design being above the nominal level. The sample size and the study time savings of the proposed two-stage designs are substantial as compared to the one-stage design.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment Preferentially Improves Overall Survival Among African Americans With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: We used data from the Fibrotic Liver Disease Consortium to evaluate the impact of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment across race/ethnicity, gender, and clinical status among patients with primary biliary cholangitis. METHODS: Data were collected from "index date" (baseline) through December 31, 2016. Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting was used to adjust for UDCA treatment selection bias. Cox regression, focusing on UDCA-by-risk factor interactions, was used to assess the association between treatment and mortality and liver transplant/death. RESULTS: Among 4,238 patients with primary biliary cholangitis (13% men; 8% African American, 7% Asian American/American Indian/Pacific Island [ASINPI]; 21% Hispanic), 78% had ever received UDCA. The final multivariable model for mortality retained age, household income, comorbidity score, total bilirubin, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, and interactions of UDCA with race, gender, and aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ≥1.1. Among untreated patients, African Americans and ASINPIs had higher mortality than whites (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.67 and aHR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.11-1.76, respectively). Among treated patients, this relationship was reversed (aHR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.51-0.86 and aHR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.67-1.16). Patterns were similar for liver transplant/death. UDCA reduced the risk of liver transplant/death in all patient groups and mortality across all groups except white women with aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ≥1.1. As compared to patients with low-normal bilirubin at baseline (≤0.4 mg/dL), those with high-normal (1.0 > 0.7) and mid-normal bilirubin (0.7 > 0.4) had significantly higher liver transplant/death and all-cause mortality. DISCUSSION: African American and ASINPI patients who did not receive UDCA had significantly higher mortality than white patients. Among African Americans, treatment was associated with significantly lower mortality. Regardless of UDCA treatment, higher baseline bilirubin, even within the normal range, was associated with increased mortality and liver transplant/death compared with low-normal levels.

Race/Ethnicity and Insurance-Specific Disparities in In-Hospital Mortality Among Adults with Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Analysis of 2007-2014 National Inpatient Sample.

BACKGROUND: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a progressive autoimmune liver disease that can result in cirrhosis and end-stage liver disease. AIMS: We aim to evaluate hospitalization burden and in-hospital mortality among PBC patients in the USA. METHODS: Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2007 to 2014, hospitalizations among US adults with PBC were stratified by sex, age, and race/ethnicity. Overall in-hospital mortality was stratified by these variables and adjusted multivariate regression models evaluated for predictors of in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: From 2007 to 2014, there were 18,279 hospitalizations among adults with PBC (15.0% male, mean age 63.8 years, 41.3% cirrhosis). Among non-Hispanic whites, the proportion of total PBC hospitalizations increased from 57.8% in 2007 to 71.2% in 2014, compared to 4.1-6.3% for African-Americans, 8.6-10.9% for Hispanics, and 1.7-2.8% for Asians (p < 0.001 for all). While overall in-hospital mortality was low (4.2%), increasing age was associated with higher odds of in-hospital mortality (OR: 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03, p < 0.001). Compared to non-Hispanic white PBC patients, higher in-hospital mortality was observed in African-American PBC patients (OR: 1.40, 95% CI 1.16-2.03, p < 0.05). Compared to patients with private/commercial insurance, significantly higher odds of in-hospital mortality were observed in patients with Medicaid insurance (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.00-1.99, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: In summary, among adults with PBC hospitalized in the USA from 2007 to 2014, the overall number of hospitalizations is increasing. Significant disparities in in-hospital mortality were observed; African-Americans with PBC and Medicaid patients with PBC have disproportionately higher odds of in-hospital mortality.

Variable selection for joint models with time-varying coefficients.

Many clinical studies collect longitudinal and survival data concurrently. Joint models combining these two types of outcomes through shared random effects are frequently used in practical data analysis. The standard joint models assume that the coefficients for the longitudinal and survival components are time-invariant. In many applications, the assumption is overly restrictive. In this research, we extend the standard joint model to include time-varying coefficients, in both longitudinal and survival components, and we present a data-driven method for variable selection. Specifically, we use a B-spline decomposition and penalized likelihood with adaptive group LASSO to select the relevant independent variables and to distinguish the time-varying and time-invariant effects for the two model components. We use Gaussian-Legendre and Gaussian-Hermite quadratures to approximate the integrals in the absence of closed-form solutions. Simulation studies show good selection and estimation performance. Finally, we use the proposed procedure to analyze data generated by a study of primary biliary cirrhosis.

IgM response is a prognostic biomarker of primary biliary cholangitis treated with ursodeoxycholic acid and bezafibrate.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) patients who are refractory to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) are at risk for progression to cirrhosis and liver failure. Bezafibrate could be an alternative second-line therapeutic option in these patients. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term outcome(s) of combined UDCA and bezafibrate therapy in UDCA-refractory PBC patients and identify prognostic factors. METHODS: Among 445 patients treated with UDCA, 150 patients inadequately responded to UDCA monotherapy and received long-term UDCA plus bezafibrate (median, 15 years). Data from these patients were used for this retrospective analysis. RESULTS: Combination therapy resulted in significant improvements in serum biochemistry and liver transplantation risk estimated using the UK-PBC-risk and the GLOBE scores. The cumulative normalization rates of alkaline phosphatase, gamma-glutamyltransferase, and immunoglobulin M (IgM) were significantly higher in patients without cirrhosis-related symptoms or liver-related events than in those with them. Overall, IgM constantly emerged as a significant factor associated with cirrhosis-related symptoms and liver-related events at all time points. Cumulative survival rates were significantly lower in patients with IgM ≥ 240 mg/dL than in patients with IgM < 240 mg/dL. Thus, normalization of IgM levels was a good surrogate predictor of long-term prognosis. None of the patients discontinued combination therapy due to any adverse events during the follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings point to the beneficial effects of long-term UDCA plus bezafibrate combination therapy for UDCA-refractory PBC patients, and IgM response can be a useful predictive biomarker of long-term clinical outcomes.

Early Prognostic Utility of Gp210 Antibody-Positive Rate in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), which is an autoimmune liver disease, has increased over time. PBC often leads to severe consequences, such as liver failure and death. Stratification tools using biochemical liver tests are needed to assess and predict the progression of this disease at the time of PBC diagnosis. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Embase for studies focused on the relationship between positive rates of Gp210 antibodies and poor prognosis of PBC. The primary end point was the number of PBC patients with poor outcome in the Gp210 antibody (+) and Gp210 antibody (-) groups. The secondary end point was the basic serum level of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), total bilirubin (TBIL), and IgM in the two groups. The age and number of female patients were also measured. RESULTS: A total of 5 studies, comprising 737 patients, were included in this analysis. A positive rate of Gp210 antibodies was positively correlated with poor outcomes and with many types of progression in PBC, especially liver failure. Mortality was also higher in the Gp210 antibody (+) group. Furthermore, the serum levels of ALP and IgM were associated with the positive rate of Gp210 antibodies, while the serum levels of ALT and TBIL were not. The age and number of female patients were also not associated with the positive rate of Gp210 antibodies. CONCLUSION: PBC-specific Gp120 antibodies are optimal predictors of PBC prognosis at the time of diagnosis. Some other liver function indicators, such as ALP and IgM, can be used as predictors to complement Gp210 antibodies to establish a stratification tool to predict the prognosis of PBC at the time of diagnosis.