Initial development of a brief assessment of cocaine demand.

Cocaine demand is a behavioral economic measure assessing drug reward value and motivation to use drug. The purpose of the current study was to develop a brief assessment of cocaine demand (BACD). Results from the BACD were compared with self-report measures of cocaine use. Participants consisted of treatment-seeking individuals with cocaine use disorder (N = 22). Results revealed that indices of brief demand were significantly associated with various self-report measures of cocaine use. Overall, these results support the utility of a BACD for assessing cocaine demand.

Drug affordability-potential tool for comparing illicit drug markets.

BACKGROUND: The importance of illicit drug price data and making appropriate adjustments for purity has been repeatedly highlighted for understanding illicit drug markets. The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) has been collecting retail price data for a number of drug types alongside drug-specific purity information for over 15 years. While these data are useful for a number of monitoring and analytical purposes, they are not without their limitations and there are circumstances where additional adjustment needs to be considered. This paper reviews some conceptual issues and measurement challenges relevant to the interpretation of price data. It also highlights the issues with between-country comparisons of drug prices and introduces the concept of affordability of drugs, going beyond purity-adjustment to account for varying national economies. METHODS: Based on a 2015 European data set of price and purity data across the heroin and cocaine retail markets, the paper demonstrates a new model for drug market comparative analysis; calculation of drug affordability is achieved by applying to purity-adjusted prices 2015 Price Level Indices (PLI, Eurostat). RESULTS: Available data allowed retail heroin and cocaine market comparison for 27 European countries. The lowest and highest unadjusted prices per gram were observed for heroin: in Estonia, Belgium, Greece and Bulgaria (lowest) and Finland, Ireland, Sweden and Latvia (highest); for cocaine: the Netherlands, Belgium and the United Kingdom (lowest) and Turkey, Finland, Estonia and Romania (highest). The affordability per gram of heroin and cocaine when taking into account adjustment for both purity and economy demonstrates different patterns. CONCLUSION: It is argued that purity-adjusted price alone provides an incomplete comparison of retail price across countries. The proposed new method takes account of the differing economic conditions within European countries, thus providing a more sophisticated tool for cross-national comparisons of retail drug markets in Europe. Future work will need to examine other potential uses of the drug affordability tool. LIMITATIONS: The limitations of this measure reflect primarily the limitations of the constituent data; in addition to issues inherent in collecting accurate data on illicit markets, analysis that relies on data collected from multiple countries is susceptible to discrepancies in data collection practices from country to country.

Purity, adulteration and price of drugs bought on-line versus off-line in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: On-line drug markets flourish and consumers have high expectations of on-line quality and drug value. The aim of this study was to (i) describe on-line drug purchases and (ii) compare on-line with off-line purchased drugs regarding purity, adulteration and price. DESIGN: Comparison of laboratory analyses of 32 663 drug consumer samples (stimulants and hallucinogens) purchased between January 2013 and January 2016, 928 of which were bought on-line. SETTING: The Netherlands. MEASUREMENTS: Primary outcome measures were (i) the percentage of samples purchased on-line and (ii) the chemical purity of powders (or dosage per tablet); adulteration; and the price per gram, blotter or tablet of drugs bought on-line compared with drugs bought off-line. FINDINGS: The proportion of drug samples purchased on-line increased from 1.4% in 2013 to 4.1% in 2015. The frequency varied widely, from a maximum of 6% for controlled, traditional substances [ecstasy tablets, 3,4-methylenedioxy-methamphetamine (MDMA) powder, amphetamine powder, cocaine powder, 4-bromo-2,5-dimethoxyphenethylamine (2C-B) and lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD)] to more than a third for new psychoactive substances (NPS) [4-fluoroamphetamine (4-FA), 5/6-(2-aminopropyl)benzofuran (5/6-APB) and methoxetamine (MXE)]. There were no large differences in drug purity, yet small but statistically significant differences were found for 4-FA (on-line 59% versus off-line 52% purity for 4-FA on average, P = 0.001), MDMA powders (45 versus 61% purity for MDMA, P = 0.02), 2C-B tablets (21 versus 10 mg 2C-B/tablet dosage, P = 0.49) and ecstasy tablets (131 versus 121 mg MDMA/tablet dosage, P = 0.05). The proportion of adulterated samples purchased on-line and off-line did not differ, except for 4-FA powder, being less adulterated on-line (χ2  = 8.3; P < 0.02). Drug prices were mainly higher on-line, ranging for various drugs from 10 to 23% higher than that of drugs purchased off-line (six of 10 substances: P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Dutch drug users increasingly purchase drugs on-line: new psychoactive substances in particular. Purity and adulteration do not vary considerably between drugs purchased on-line and off-line for most substances, while on-line prices are mostly higher than off-line prices.

Comparing exponential and exponentiated models of drug demand in cocaine users.

Drug purchase tasks provide rapid and efficient measurement of drug demand. Zero values (i.e., prices with zero consumption) present a quantitative challenge when using exponential demand models that exponentiated models may resolve. We aimed to replicate and advance the utility of using an exponentiated model by demonstrating construct validity (i.e., association with real-world drug use) and generalizability across drug commodities. Participants (N = 40 cocaine-using adults) completed Cocaine, Alcohol, and Cigarette Purchase Tasks evaluating hypothetical consumption across changes in price. Exponentiated and exponential models were fit to these data using different treatments of zero consumption values, including retaining zeros or replacing them with 0.1, 0.01, or 0.001. Excellent model fits were observed with the exponentiated model. Means and precision fluctuated with different replacement values when using the exponential model but were consistent for the exponentiated model. The exponentiated model provided the strongest correlation between derived demand intensity (Q0) and self-reported free consumption in all instances (Cocaine r = .88; Alcohol r = .97; Cigarette r = .91). Cocaine demand elasticity was positively correlated with alcohol and cigarette elasticity. Exponentiated parameters were associated with real-world drug use (e.g., weekly cocaine use) whereas these correlations were less consistent for exponential parameters. Our findings show that selection of zero replacement values affects demand parameters and their association with drug-use outcomes when using the exponential model but not the exponentiated model. This work supports the adoption of the exponentiated demand model by replicating improved fit and consistency and demonstrating construct validity and generalizability. (PsycINFO Database Record

Strategies for a risky business: How drug dealers manage customers, suppliers and competitors in Italy, Slovenia and Germany.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of literature aims to improve understanding of the operations of drug trafficking markets through conducting interviews with dealers and traffickers. Insight into how these individuals conduct business can provide evidence to inform the efforts by policy makers, law enforcement and practitioners to disrupt illicit markets. This paper aims to make a contribution to this evidence base by extending the number of European countries in which interviews have been conducted with incarcerated drug dealers and traffickers. METHODS: It draws on interviews with 135 men convicted of offences related to the distribution or sale of heroin or cocaine and imprisoned in Italy, Slovenia and Germany. The research was conducted as part of the Reframing Addictions Project (ALICE-RAP) funded by the European Commission. The sample was diverse. It included a range of nationalities and some individuals who were members of organised crime groups. The majority of the interviewees were dealers who sold at the retail and street level, but there were some who were importers and wholesalers. FINDINGS: Most dealers in each of the three countries reported having more than one regular supplier, and were able to respond to periods of over and under supply without losing customers. Supply arrangements varied in terms of frequency and quantities bought. Dealers engaged in repeated transactions and their relationships with customers were based on trust and reputation. Dealers aimed to sell to regular customers and to provide drugs of good quality. While dealers sought to maximise their profits by cutting drugs with cutting agents, the quality of drugs that they sold could affect their reputation and thus their profits and position in the market. Lastly, while there are some significant differences in the approach between those involved in organised crime groups and those who are not, and between street dealers and those operating at higher levels of the market, there were striking similarities in terms of the day-to-day operational concerns and modes of relationship management. CONCLUSIONS: Interviewees' arrangements for securing supplies of drugs provide support to the notion that drug markets are resilient and flexible. Our findings correspond with other empirical research in relation to the centrality of trust in the practical operation of supply and sale of drugs. The research highlights some differences, but important similarities between dealers who were part of organised crime groups and those who were not; dealers all faced some common challenges and adopted some common responses to these.

New answers to an old problem: Social investment and coca crops in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: For more than 30 years, the main strategy to control illicit coca crops has been forced eradication. Despite the importance of social investment and persistent poverty in areas where illicit crops are grown, there is no empirical evidence of the effect of social expenditures on preventing and reducing the expansion of illicit crops. METHODS: This paper analyses how social investment in conjunction with eradication affects new coca crops. The model is tested using a dataset consisting of annual data for 440 contiguous municipalities that had coca in any year between 2001 and 2010. The analysis includes the two main techniques used to control illicit crops, manual eradication and aerial spraying. RESULTS: Aerial spraying is effective in deterring farmers from increasing the size of their new coca fields, but this effect is small. Social investment, in addition to generating social welfare, has a significant negative relationship with new coca crops, 0.09-hectare reduction in new coca crops per additional 50-cent spent in social investment (human capital and infrastructure) per inhabitant. CONCLUSION: Social investment emerges as a complementary and effective strategy to control illicit crops.

Modeling the structure and operation of drug supply chains: The case of cocaine and heroin in Italy and Slovenia.

Multiple layers of dealers connect international drug traffickers to users. The fundamental activity of these dealers is buying from higher-level dealers and re-selling in smaller quantities at the next lower market level. Each instance of this can be viewed as completing a drug dealing "cycle". This paper introduces an approach for combining isolated accounts of such cycles into a coherent model of the structure, span, and profitability of the various layers of the domestic supply chain for illegal drugs. The approach is illustrated by synthesizing data from interviews with 116 incarcerated dealers to elucidate the structure and operation of distribution networks for cocaine and heroin in Italy and Slovenia. Inmates' descriptions of cycles in the Italian cocaine market suggest fairly orderly networks, with reasonably well-defined market levels. The Italian heroin market appears to have more "level-jumpers" who skip a market level by making a larger number of sales per cycle, with each sale being of a considerably smaller weight. Slovenian data are sparser, but broadly consistent. Incorporating prices allows calculation of how much of the revenue from retail sales is retained by dealers at each market level. In the Italian cocaine market, both retail sellers and the international supply chain outside of Italy each appear to receive about 30-40% of what users spend, with the remaining 30% going to higher-level dealers operating in Italy (roughly 10% to those at the multi-kilo level and 20% to lower level wholesale dealers). Factoring in cycle frequencies permits rough estimation of the number of organizations at each market level per billion euros in retail sales, and of annual net revenues for organizations at each level. These analyses provide an approach to gaining insight into the structure and operation of the supply chain for illegal drugs. They also illustrate the value of two new graphical tools for describing illicit drug supply chains and hint at possible biases in how respondents describe their drug dealing activities.

An ethnographic exploration of drug markets in Kisumu, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Illegal drug markets are shaped by multiple forces, including local actors and broader economic, political, social, and criminal justice systems that intertwine to impact health and social wellbeing. Ethnographic analyses that interrogate multiple dimensions of drug markets may offer both applied and theoretical insights into drug use, particularly in developing nations where new markets and local patterns of use traditionally have not been well understood. This paper explores the emergent drug market in Kisumu, western Kenya, where our research team recently documented evidence of injection drug use. METHODS: Our exploratory study of injection drug use was conducted in Kisumu from 2013 to 2014. We draw on 151 surveys, 29 in-depth interviews, and 8 months of ethnographic fieldwork to describe the drug market from the perspective of injectors, focusing on their perceptions of the market and reports of drug use therein. RESULTS: Injectors described a dynamic market in which the availability of drugs and proliferation of injection drug use have taken on growing importance in Kisumu. In addition to reports of white and brown forms of heroin and concerns about drug adulteration in the market, we unexpectedly documented widespread perceptions of cocaine availability and injection in Kisumu. Examining price data and socio-pharmacological experiences of cocaine injection left us with unconfirmed evidence of its existence, but opened further possibilities about how the chaos of new drug markets and diffusion of injection-related beliefs and practices may lend insight into the sociopolitical context of western Kenya. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest a need for expanded drug surveillance, education and programming responsive to local conditions, and further ethnographic inquiry into the social meanings of emergent drug markets in Kenya and across sub-Saharan Africa.

Identifying Demand Responses to Illegal Drug Supply Interdictions.

Successful supply-side interdictions into illegal drug markets are predicated on the responsiveness of drug prices to enforcement and the price elasticity of demand for addictive drugs. We present causal estimates that targeted interventions aimed at methamphetamine input markets ('precursor control') can temporarily increase retail street prices, but methamphetamine consumption is weakly responsive to higher drug prices. After the supply interventions, purity-adjusted prices increased then quickly returned to pre-treatment levels within 6-12 months, demonstrating the short-term effects of precursor control. The price elasticity of methamphetamine demand is -0.13 to -0.21 for self-admitted drug treatment admissions and between -0.24 and -0.28 for hospital inpatient admissions. We find some evidence of a positive cross-price effect for cocaine, but we do not find robust evidence that increases in methamphetamine prices increased heroin, alcohol, or marijuana drug use. This study can inform policy discussions regarding other synthesized drugs, including illicit use of pharmaceuticals. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

US federal cocaine essential ('precursor') chemical regulation impacts on US cocaine availability: an intervention time-series analysis with temporal replication.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Research shows that essential/precursor chemical controls have had substantial impacts on US methamphetamine and heroin availability. This study examines whether US federal essential chemical regulations have impacted US cocaine seizure amount, price and purity-indicators of cocaine availability. DESIGN: Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)-intervention time-series analysis was used to assess the impacts of four US regulations targeting cocaine manufacturing chemicals: potassium permanganate/selected solvents, implemented October 1989 sulfuric acid/hydrochloric acid, implemented October 1992; methyl isobutyl ketone, implemented May 1995; and sodium permanganate, implemented December 2006. Of these chemicals, potassium permanganate and sodium permanganate are the most critical to cocaine production. SETTING: Conterminous United States (January 1987-April 2011). MEASUREMENTS: Monthly time-series: purity-adjusted cocaine seizure amount (in gross weight seizures < 6000 grams), purity-adjusted price (all available seizures), and purity (all available seizures). DATA SOURCE: System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence. FINDINGS: The 1989 potassium permanganate/solvents regulation was associated with a seizure amount decrease (change in series level) of 28% (P < 0.05), a 36% increase in price (P < 0.05) and a 4% decrease in purity (P < 0.05). Availability recovered in 1-2 years. The 2006 potassium permanganate regulation was associated with a 22% seizure amount decrease (P < 0.05), 100% price increase (P < 0.05) and 35% purity decrease (P < 0.05). Following the 2006 regulation, essentially no recovery occurred to April 2011. The other two chemical regulations were associated with statistically significant but lesser declines in indicated availability. CONCLUSIONS: In the United States, essential chemical controls from 1989 to 2006 were associated with pronounced downturns in cocaine availability.

Cocaine's fall and marijuana's rise: questions and insights based on new estimates of consumption and expenditures in US drug markets.

AIMS: Drug policy strategies and discussions often use prevalence of drug use as a primary performance indicator. However, three other indicators are at least as relevant: the number of heavy users, total expenditures and total amount consumed. This paper stems from our efforts to develop annual estimates of these three measures for cocaine (including crack), heroin, marijuana and methamphetamine in the United States. METHODS: The estimates exploit complementary strengths of a general population survey (National Survey on Drug Use and Health) and both survey and urinalysis test result data for arrestees (Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring Program), supplemented by many other data sources. RESULTS: Throughout the 2000s US drug users spent in the order of $100 billion annually on these drugs, although the spending distribution and use patterns changed dramatically. From 2006 to 2010, the amount of marijuana consumed in the United States probably increased by more than 30%, while the amount of cocaine consumed in the United States fell by approximately 50%. These figures are consistent with supply-side indicators, such as seizures and production estimates. For all the drugs, total consumption and expenditures are driven by the minority of users who consume on 21 or more days each month. CONCLUSIONS: Even for established drugs, consumption can change rapidly. The halving of the cocaine market in five years and the parallel (but independent) large rise in daily/near-daily marijuana use are major events that were not anticipated by the expert community and raise important theoretical, research, and policy issues.

Cocaine behavioral economics: from the naturalistic environment to the controlled laboratory setting.

BACKGROUND: We previously observed that behavioral economic factors predict naturalistic heroin seeking behavior that correlates with opioid seeking in the experimental laboratory. The present study sought to replicate and extend these prior findings with regular cocaine users. METHODS: Participants (N=83) completed a semi-structured interview to establish income-generating and cocaine-purchasing/use repertoire during the past month. Questions addressed sources/amounts of income and expenditures; price (money and time) per purchase; and frequency/amounts of cocaine purchased and consumed. Naturalistic cocaine purchasing and use patterns were: (1) analyzed as a function of income quartile, (2) perturbed by hypothetical changes in cost factors to assess changes in purchasing/use habits, and (3) correlated with experimental cocaine seeking. RESULTS: Income was positively related to naturalistic cocaine seeking/use pattern (i.e., income elastic), and behaviors were cost-efficient and sensitive to supply chain. Income was unrelated to proportional expenditure on cocaine (≈55%) but inversely related to food expenditure. In all hypothetical scenarios (changes in income or dealer, loss of income assistance from government or family/friends, and increasing arrest risk when purchasing), the high-income group reported they would continue to use more cocaine daily than other groups. Number of laboratory cocaine choices significantly correlated with cocaine purchase time (positively) and purity of cocaine (negatively) in the naturalistic setting. CONCLUSIONS: These results replicate and extend findings with regular heroin users, demonstrate the importance of income, cost-efficiency and supply-mindedness in cocaine seeking/use, and suggest that this interview-based approach has good external validity.

Risks, prices, and positions: A social network analysis of illegal drug trafficking in the world-economy.

BACKGROUND: Illegal drug prices are extremely high, compared to similar goods. There is, however, considerable variation in value depending on place, market level and type of drugs. A prominent framework for the study of illegal drugs is the "risks and prices" model (Reuter & Kleiman, 1986). Enforcement is seen as a "tax" added to the regular price. In this paper, it is argued that such economic models are not sufficient to explain price variations at country-level. Drug markets are analysed as global trade networks in which a country's position has an impact on various features, including illegal drug prices. METHODOLOGY: This paper uses social network analysis (SNA) to explain price markups between pairs of countries involved in the trafficking of illegal drugs between 1998 and 2007. It aims to explore a simple question: why do prices increase between two countries? Using relational data from various international organizations, separate trade networks were built for cocaine, heroin and cannabis. Wholesale price markups are predicted with measures of supply, demand, risks of seizures, geographic distance and global positioning within the networks. Reported prices (in $US) and purchasing power parity-adjusted values are analysed. RESULTS: Drug prices increase more sharply when drugs are headed to countries where law enforcement imposes higher costs on traffickers. The position and role of a country in global drug markets are also closely associated with the value of drugs. Price markups are lower if the destination country is a transit to large potential markets. Furthermore, price markups for cocaine and heroin are more pronounced when drugs are exported to countries that are better positioned in the legitimate world-economy, suggesting that relations in legal and illegal markets are directed in opposite directions. CONCLUSION: Consistent with the world-system perspective, evidence is found of coherent world drug markets driven by both local realities and international relations.

Demand curves for hypothetical cocaine in cocaine-dependent individuals.

RATIONALE: Drug purchasing tasks have been successfully used to examine demand for hypothetical consumption of abused drugs including heroin, nicotine, and alcohol. In these tasks, drug users make hypothetical choices whether to buy drugs, and if so, at what quantity, at various potential prices. These tasks allow for behavioral economic assessment of that drug's intensity of demand (preferred level of consumption at extremely low prices) and demand elasticity (sensitivity of consumption to price), among other metrics. However, a purchasing task for cocaine in cocaine-dependent individuals has not been investigated. OBJECTIVES: This study examined a novel Cocaine Purchasing Task and the relation between resulting demand metrics and self-reported cocaine use data. METHODS: Participants completed a questionnaire assessing hypothetical purchases of cocaine units at prices ranging from $0.01 to $1,000. Demand curves were generated from responses on the Cocaine Purchasing Task. Correlations compared metrics from the demand curve to measures of real-world cocaine use. RESULTS: Group and individual data were well modeled by a demand curve function. The validity of the Cocaine Purchasing Task was supported by a significant correlation between the demand curve metrics of demand intensity and O max (determined from Cocaine Purchasing Task data) and self-reported measures of cocaine use. Partial correlations revealed that after controlling for demand intensity, demand elasticity and the related measure, P max, were significantly correlated with real-world cocaine use. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that the Cocaine Purchasing Task produces orderly demand curve data, and that these data relate to real-world measures of cocaine use.

Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! Estimating cocaine production using a novel dataset based on reported seizures of laboratories in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Data on the cocaine market appear inconsistent, as they tend to show declining prices vis-a-vis steady or increasing demand and a declining supply. This paper proposes an explanation for this trend by providing evidence of an under-estimation of the supply of cocaine. METHODS: We propose a conservative estimate of cocaine production in Colombia for 2008, using data based on all reported seizures from 328 laboratories made by the counteracting organisations operating within the Colombian territory. RESULTS: Our conservative estimate of 935 tons from the seized laboratories is at least twice the estimate declared in official statistics of 295-450 tons. We are careful to keep all variables to their minimum boundary values. Our methodology could prove to be a useful tool, especially if used in parallel with the standard tools. Moreover, its characteristics (affordability, ease of use and potential for worldwide adoption) make it a powerful instrument to counteract cocaine production.