Geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases by social determinants of health in metropolitan areas in Canada: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with the social determinants of health could help the development of effective mitigation strategies that are responsive to local transmission dynamics. This study aims to quantify social determinants of geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases across 16 census metropolitan areas (hereafter, cities) in 4 Canadian provinces, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. METHODS: We used surveillance data on confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and census data for social determinants at the level of the dissemination area (DA). We calculated Gini coefficients to determine the overall geographic heterogeneity of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in each city, and calculated Gini covariance coefficients to determine each city's heterogeneity by each social determinant (income, education, housing density and proportions of visible minorities, recent immigrants and essential workers). We visualized heterogeneity using Lorenz (concentration) curves. RESULTS: We observed geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases in cities, as half of the cumulative cases were concentrated in DAs containing 21%-35% of their population, with the greatest geographic heterogeneity in Ontario cities (Gini coefficients 0.32-0.47), followed by British Columbia (0.23-0.36), Manitoba (0.32) and Quebec (0.28-0.37). Cases were disproportionately concentrated in areas with lower income and educational attainment, and in areas with a higher proportion of visible minorities, recent immigrants, high-density housing and essential workers. Although a consistent feature across cities was concentration by the proportion of visible minorities, the magnitude of concentration by social determinant varied across cities. INTERPRETATION: Geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed in all of the included cities, but the pattern by social determinants varied. Geographically prioritized allocation of resources and services should be tailored to the local drivers of inequalities in transmission in response to the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2.

Firing discrimination: Selective labor market responses of firms during the COVID-19 economic crisis.

The speed of the economic downturn in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic has been exceptional, causing mass layoffs-in Germany up to 30% of the workforce in some industries. Economic rationale suggests that the decision on which workers are fired should depend on productivity-related individual factors. However, from hiring situations we know that discrimination-i.e., decisions driven by characteristics unrelated to productivity-is widespread in Western labor markets. Drawing on representative survey data on forced layoffs and short-time work collected in Germany between April and December 2020, this study highlights that discrimination against immigrants is also present in firing situations. The analysis shows that employees with a migration background are significantly more likely to lose their job than native workers when otherwise healthy firms are unexpectedly forced to let go of part of their workforce, while firms make more efforts to substitute firing with short-time working schemes for their native workers. Adjusting for detailed job-related characteristics shows that the findings are unlikely to be driven by systematic differences in productivity between migrants and natives. Moreover, using industry-specific variation in the extent of the economic downturn, I demonstrate that layoff probabilities hardly differ across the less affected industries, but that the gap between migrants and natives increases with the magnitude of the shock. In the hardest-hit industries, job loss probability among migrants is three times higher than among natives. This confirms the hypothesis that firing discrimination puts additional pressure on the immigrant workforce in times of crisis.

The tree cover and temperature disparity in US urbanized areas: Quantifying the association with income across 5,723 communities.

Urban tree cover provides benefits to human health and well-being, but previous studies suggest that tree cover is often inequitably distributed. Here, we use National Agriculture Imagery Program digital ortho photographs to survey the tree cover inequality for Census blocks in US large urbanized areas, home to 167 million people across 5,723 municipalities and other Census-designated places. We compared tree cover to summer land surface temperature, as measured using Landsat imagery. In 92% of the urbanized areas surveyed, low-income blocks have less tree cover than high-income blocks. On average, low-income blocks have 15.2% less tree cover and are 1.5°C hotter than high-income blocks. The greatest difference between low- and high-income blocks was found in urbanized areas in the Northeast of the United States, where low-income blocks in some urbanized areas have 30% less tree cover and are 4.0°C hotter. Even after controlling for population density and built-up intensity, the positive association between income and tree cover is significant, as is the positive association between proportion non-Hispanic white and tree cover. We estimate, after controlling for population density, that low-income blocks have 62 million fewer trees than high-income blocks, equal to a compensatory value of $56 billion ($1,349/person). An investment in tree planting and natural regeneration of $17.6 billion would be needed to close the tree cover disparity, benefitting 42 million people in low-income blocks.

Evolving population distribution in China's border regions: Spatial differences, driving forces and policy implications.

The security and socioeconomic development of China's border areas are of great significance to the nation and the wider world. Using census, statistical, digital elevation model (DEM) and network data, this paper employs visual analysis to capture population distribution patterns in China's 131 border counties from 1982 to 2010. Multiple stepwise regression is carried out to identify the influencing factors of population dynamics in border regions. The main findings include: China's most heavily populated border areas are primarily in the northeast, northwest, and the Guangxi-Yunnan region, while rapid growth of population is found in western Inner Mongolia, southwest Xinjiang, northwest Tibet, and southern Yunnan. Given the increasingly market-oriented migration mechanism, the national reclamation policy has been no longer effective in population attraction in the new century. Education has significantly lowered and will continuously lower the fertility rate in remote border areas. The factors influencing population growth show a remarkable regional heterogeneity along China's long border.

People versus machines in the UK: Minimum wages, labor reallocation and automatable jobs.

This study follows the Lordan and Neumark (2018) analysis for the US, and examines whether minimum wage increases affect employment opportunities in automatable jobs in the UK for low-skilled low-wage workers. Overall, I find that increasing the minimum wage decreases the share of automatable employment held by low-skilled low-wage workers, and increases the likelihood that workers in automatable jobs become dis-employed. On aggregate the effect size is modest, but I also provide evidence that these effects are larger in more recent years. The study also highlights significant heterogeneity by industry and demographic group, including more substantive adverse effects for older low-skilled workers in manufacturing, as well as effects at the intensive margin.

Implications of Demographics and Socioeconomic Factors in Breast Cancer Reconstruction.

BACKGROUND: Not all women undergo breast reconstruction despite its vital role in the recovery process. Previous studies have reported that women who are ethnically diverse and of lower socioeconomic status are less likely to undergo breast reconstruction, but the reasons remain unclear. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the demographic characteristics of our patient population and their primary reason for not undergoing breast reconstruction. METHODS: An institutional review board-approved, single-institution study was designed to evaluate all female breast cancer patients of all stages who underwent mastectomy but did not undergo breast reconstruction from 2008 to 2014. Patients were contacted via telephone and asked to participate in a validated, prompted survey. Data regarding their demographic information and primary reason for not undergoing breast reconstruction were collected. RESULTS: Inclusion criteria were met by 181 patients, of which 61% participated in the survey. Overall, the most common reason for not undergoing breast reconstruction (26%) was unwillingness to undergo further procedures. However, the most common reason for patients that identified as Hispanic, Spanish-speaking, high school graduates, or having an annual income less than US $25,000 (P < 0.05) was insufficient information received. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that ethnicity and socioeconomic factors play a key role in determining why patients forego breast reconstruction. Ethnicity, language, education, income, and employment status are associated with patients not receiving appropriate education regarding their reconstructive options. Breast surgeons with a diverse patient population should ensure that these patients are adequately educated regarding their options, and if perhaps, more of these patients would decide to partake in the reconstruction process.

The privilege paradox: Geographic areas with highest socio-economic advantage have the lowest rates of vaccination.

The present study is the first to examine associations between area-level socio-demographic factors and uptake of vaccination among 5-year old children throughout Australia. A public-health focused ecological methodology was used that combined postcode-level socio-demographic variables from the 2016 Census with postcode-level vaccination data. Analyses included one-way analysis of variance and assessment of linear trends for each socio-demographic variable across five categories of vaccination rate; ranging from lowest (≤90%) to highest (96.1-100%), as well as using vaccination rate as a continuous variable. Multiple regression analysis was also conducted using select indicators to predict vaccination rates in postcodes from major cities. The results of the univariate analyses showed that communities with lower rates of vaccination had relatively less disadvantage, and had relatively greater education and occupation status, as measured by SEIFA (ABS [4]). When we looked at the ASGS Remoteness Areas, we saw that the vaccination rates were lowest in postcodes from the major cities of Australia, and vaccination rates increased as communities became more remote. When the community is further refined to postcodes located in the major cities, and to the target group of parents/partners in a family with children aged 4-7, we found that postcodes with lower vaccination rates were characterised as having a relatively greater proportion of people with: a high education level (bachelor degree level or higher); having white-collar jobs as managers; having no religion, having people in the older age category (50-54); and conversely being unemployed.

Food security and food self-sufficiency around the world: A typology of countries.

The particularities of agriculture, as a sector which ensures food supply, result from many factors, including the multilateral interaction between the environment and human activity. The extent of human intervention in the food production process is usually measured with the amount of capital expenditure. Therefore, the food production potential and the resulting food security depend on both natural and economic factors. This paper identifies the current status of food security in different countries around the world, considering both aspects (physical and economic availability) combined together. The variables published by FAO were used together with a variable estimated based on the author's own methodology to identify 8 groups of countries characterized by economic development level, net trade in agricultural products, and selected variables related to agriculture and food situation. As shown by this study, the degree to which food security is ensured with domestic supply varies strongly across the globe. Domestic production provides a foundation for food security in wealthy countries, usually located in areas with favorable conditions for agriculture (including North America, Australia, New Zealand, Kazakhstan) and in countries which, though characterized by a relatively small area of arable land per capita, demonstrate high production intensity (mainly European countries). International trade largely contributes to food security in Middle East and North African countries as well as in selected South American countries which are net importers of food products. The most problematic food situation continues to affect Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia.

Integrating micronutrient status assessment into the 2015-2016 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey: A qualitative evaluation.

Demand for national-level micronutrient status data continues to grow, yet little is known about the implementation of different approaches for collecting these data. We conducted an evaluation of the process of linking the 2015-2016 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) and 2015-2016 Malawi Micronutrient Survey (MNS). We conducted 24 in-depth interviews with stakeholders from the Malawi government and international agencies and field staff. Interview questions explored perceptions of what worked and what was challenging during three phases of implementation: preparation; data collection; and data analysis, reporting, and dissemination. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Results showed that there was strong government interest to integrate the MDHS and MNS. Perceived benefits included potential cost savings and lower respondent burden. However, government and international agency stakeholders did not view the linkage of the surveys to be a fully integrated approach. The lack of full integration produced challenges throughout implementation, such as complex field logistics and duplication in nutrition indicators assessed and reported. Some stakeholders believed integration was not attainable primarily due to timing. The MDHS and MNS were originally designed as stand-alone surveys, and planning for each survey was at an advanced stage once the government sought to integrate the surveys. Additionally, the MNS could not be incorporated as a module within the MDHS given the complexity of the MNS data collection and short timeframe for planning. These findings can inform decisions about implementing the next MNS and may be transferable to other countries that are conducting micronutrient surveys to address data gaps.

High Spending Growth Rates For Key Diseases In 2000-14 Were Driven By Technology And Demographic Factors.

We introduce a new source of detailed data on spending by medical condition to analyze US health care spending growth in the period 2000-14. We found that thirty conditions, which represented only 11.5 percent of all conditions studied, accounted for 42 percent of the real growth rate in per capita spending during this period, even though they accounted for only 13 percent of overall spending in 2000. Primary drivers of spending growth included the use of new technologies, a shift toward the provision of preventive-type services, and an aging and more obese population. The health benefits of many new technologies appeared to outweigh the associated expenditures on treatment, which indicates that these are cost-effective and provide a net value to society. However, while these technologies may be of value, new treatments are often more expensive than older ones.

Situational and Demographic Factors in the Sudden Growth of Pall Mall, 2002-2014.

Objective: Pall Mall gained significant brand share in the cigarette market between 2002 and 2013. We sought to determine whether demographic shifts occurred among the participants reporting Pall Mall as their usual brand during this time span. Method: We examined National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data from 2002-2014. Demographic characteristics included age, education, ethnicity, income, and cigarette use (cigarettes per day, daily/non-daily smoking, and nicotine dependence). We also examined RJ Reynolds investor reports and shareholder documents to determine the impact of tobacco marketing on the growth of Pall Mall. Results: Over 2002-2014, Pall Mall has gained among smokers 26 to 34 years of age. More Pall Mall smokers in 2014 report higher incomes (over $75000), and also report lower scores on measures of cigarette dependence, compared to 2002. Pall Mall smokers over time seem to share characteristics of premium cigarette brands smokers. Conclusion: The profile of the typical Pall Mall smoker has changed as the brand has gained market share. An association exists between brand positioning and economic forces, which has contributed to an increase in the market share for Pall Mall. Implications: It is well known that cigarette marketing drives the sale of tobacco products. The growth in the market share of Pall Mall serves as an excellent example to demonstrate how economic uncertainty paired with brand positioning and advertising worked together to serve as a catalyst for the rapid growth observed for this brand. This paper also looked at various demographic changes that occurred among Pall Mall smokers over a 12 year period and compared them to smokers of all other cigarette brands. The results of this analysis demonstrate the importance of monitoring trends over time among cigarette smokers.

Financial forecasts accuracy in Brazil's social security system.

Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government's proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts.

Operative fusion of multilevel cervical spondylotic myelopathy: Impact of patient demographics.

Cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) is the most common cause of spinal cord dysfunction in patients older than age 55, with operative management being a widely adopted approach. Previous work has shown that private insurance status, gender and patient race are predictive of the operative approach patients receive (anterior-only, posterior-only, combined anterior-posterior). The Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2001 to 2010 was used to assess the potential role of multilevel CSM as a contributing factor in determining which operative approach CSM patients receive, as it is rare for an anterior-only approach to be sufficient for CSM patients requiring fusion of four or more involved levels. Multivariate analyses revealed that female sex (OR=3.78; 95% CI=2.08-6.89; p<0.0001), private insurance (OR=5.02; 95% CI=2.26-11.12; p<0.0001), and elective admission type (OR=4.12; 95% CI=1.65-10.32; p=0.0025) were predictive of increased receipt of a 3+ level fusion in CSM. No other variables, including patient age, race, income, or admission source were predictive of either increased or decreased likelihood of receiving fusion of at least three levels for CSM. In conclusion, female sex, private insurance status, and elective admission type are each independent predictors in CSM for receipt of a 3+ level fusion, while patient age, race and income are not. Given the propensity of fusions greater than three levels to require posterior approaches and the association between posterior CSM approaches and increased morbidity/mortality, these findings may prove useful as to which patient demographics are predictive of increased morbidity and mortality in operative treatment of CSM.

Associations between demographic characteristics and physical activity practices in Nevada schools.

Schools are important settings for not only providing and promoting children's physical activity (PA) but also for reducing PA disparities. We investigated associations between school-level demographic characteristics (racial/ethnic and socioeconomic composition, urban-rural status, and student-to-teacher ratio) and 16 PA-promoting practices in 347 Nevada public elementary, middle, and high schools in 2014. We found that low-cost and easy-to-implement practices are most prevalent. There is relative demographic equity in ten of 16 PA practices and significant differences in six PA practices in Nevada schools. Schools with comparatively larger percentages of Black students are the most disadvantaged, as they have the fewest PA-supportive practices in place. Higher percent black was associated with lower odds of providing classroom activity breaks (AOR=0.632, 95% CI=0.453-0.881) and bike racks (AOR=0.60, 95% CI=0.362-0.996), greater odds of withholding recess/PE for disciplinary reasons (AOR=1.377, 95% CI=1.006-1.885), and lower odds of having recess supervisors who are trained to promote PA (AOR=0.583, 95% CI=0.374-0.909). Schools with greater percentages of Hispanic students have lower odds of providing before-school PA programs (AOR=0.867, 95% CI=0.761-0.987), whereas schools with greater percentages of low-SES students have greater odds of providing after-school PA programs (AOR=1.135, 95% CI=1.016-1.268). Higher student-to-teacher ratio was also associated with greater odds of providing after-school PA programs (AOR=1.135, 95% CI=1.016-1.268). Urban-rural status was unrelated to all PA practices.

[Otorhinolaryngology in the field of demography, growing outpatient care and regionalization]. / Die HNO-Heilkunde im Spannungsfeld von Ambulantisierung und Regionalisierung.

BACKGROUND: Otorhinolaryngology (ENT) departments are strongly affected by current changes in the reimbursement schemes for inpatients. The study was designed to investigate these effects on the ENT Department in Rostock and selected comparison clinics, as well as to outline solutions. METHODS: We analyzed diagnosis-related group (DRG) reports of the ENT Clinic at Rostock University Medical Center from 2013 to 2015, according to the size of the outpatient potential. Comparisons were made with other surgical departments such as maxillofacial surgery and ophthalmology in terms of average length of stay and the resulting deductibles. We also compared billing as day surgery and complete outpatient surgery for the main small surgical procedures such as tonsillectomy and septum surgery. Finally, we compared the discounts with 22 ENT departments in other maximum care hospitals. RESULTS: The average case mix index of an ENT department in Germany is 0.75, case load average of 2,500 patients and common length of stay 4.1 days. In a typical academic ENT department as in Rostock, health plans usually discount around 500 T€ (thousand euro), which is considerably higher than comparable departments, e.g., oral and maxillofacial surgery or ophthalmology departments. However, discounts on a DRG for inpatient surgery is still approximately 1,000 € more revenue than surgery in an outpatient setting. The benchmark analysis shows that health plans in rural areas are more likely to accept inpatient surgery with discounts for small procedures than strict billing according to outpatient reimbursement schemes. CONCLUSION: These effects can result in an insufficient cost effectiveness of ENT departments in Germany. As a consequence, substantial restructuring of the in- and outpatient treatment seems necessary, also for academic ENT departments, e.g., in the form of day surgery or ambulatory surgical centers, outpatient clinics with special contracts and specialized inpatient surgery. However, this results in greater demands on the training of young physicians and management of patient flows within the department.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of multidimensional well-being, livelihoods and ecosystem services in coastal Bangladesh.

Populations in resource dependent economies gain well-being from the natural environment, in highly spatially and temporally variable patterns. To collect information on this, we designed and implemented a 1586-household quantitative survey in the southwest coastal zone of Bangladesh. Data were collected on material, subjective and health dimensions of well-being in the context of natural resource use, particularly agriculture, aquaculture, mangroves and fisheries. The questionnaire included questions on factors that mediate poverty outcomes: mobility and remittances; loans and micro-credit; environmental perceptions; shocks; and women's empowerment. The data are stratified by social-ecological system to take into account spatial dynamics and the survey was repeated with the same respondents three times within a year to incorporate seasonal dynamics. The dataset includes blood pressure measurements and height and weight of men, women and children. In addition, the household listing includes basic data on livelihoods and income for approximately 10,000 households. The dataset facilitates interdisciplinary research on spatial and temporal dynamics of well-being in the context of natural resource dependence in low income countries.

Climate forcing and infectious disease transmission in urban landscapes: integrating demographic and socioeconomic heterogeneity.

Urbanization and climate change are the two major environmental challenges of the 21st century. The dramatic expansion of cities around the world creates new conditions for the spread, surveillance, and control of infectious diseases. In particular, urban growth generates pronounced spatial heterogeneity within cities, which can modulate the effect of climate factors at local spatial scales in large urban environments. Importantly, the interaction between environmental forcing and socioeconomic heterogeneity at local scales remains an open area in infectious disease dynamics, especially for urban landscapes of the developing world. A quantitative and conceptual framework on urban health with a focus on infectious diseases would benefit from integrating aspects of climate forcing, population density, and level of wealth. In this paper, we review what is known about these drivers acting independently and jointly on urban infectious diseases; we then outline elements that are missing and would contribute to building such a framework.

Rich and Poor Cities in Europe. An Urban Scaling Approach to Mapping the European Economic Transition.

Recent advances in the urban science make broad use of the notion of scaling. We focus here on the important scaling relationship between the gross metropolitan product (GMP) of a city and its population (pop). It has been demonstrated that GMP ∝ Y Ypopß with ß always greater than 1 and close to 1.2. This fundamental finding highlights a universal rule that holds across countries and cultures and might explain the very nature of cities. However, in an increasingly connected world, the hypothesis that the economy of a city solely depends on its population might be questionable. Using data for 248 cities in the European Union between 2005 and 2010, we found a double GMP/pop scaling regime. For West EU cities, ß = 1 over the whole the period, while for post-communist cities ß > 1 and increases from ∼1.2 to ∼1.4. The evolution of the scaling exponent describes the convergence of post-communist European cities to open and liberal economies. We propose a simple model of economic convergence in which, under stable political conditions, a linear GMP/pop scaling is expected for all cities. The results suggest that the GMP/pop super-linear scaling represents a phase of economic growth rather than a steady, universal urban feature. The results also suggest that relationships between cities are embedded in their political and economic context and cannot be neglected in explanations of cities, urbanization and urban economics.