Optimizing HIV Prevention Efforts to Achieve EHE Incidence Targets.

BACKGROUND: A goal of the US Department of Health and Human Services' Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) in the United States initiative is to reduce the annual number of incident HIV infections in the United States by 75% within 5 years and by 90% within 10 years. We developed a resource allocation analysis to understand how these goals might be met. METHODS: We estimated the current annual societal funding [$2.8 billion (B)/yr] for 14 interventions to prevent HIV and facilitate treatment of infected persons. These interventions included HIV testing for different transmission groups, HIV care continuum interventions, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We developed scenarios optimizing or reallocating this funding to minimize new infections, and we analyzed the impact of additional EHE funding over the period 2021-2030. RESULTS: With constant current annual societal funding of $2.8 B/yr for 10 years starting in 2021, we estimated the annual incidence of 36,000 new cases in 2030. When we added annual EHE funding of $500 million (M)/yr for 2021-2022, $1.5 B/yr for 2023-2025, and $2.5 B/yr for 2026-2030, the annual incidence of infections decreased to 7600 cases (no optimization), 2900 cases (optimization beginning in 2026), and 2200 cases (optimization beginning in 2023) in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Even without optimization, significant increases in resources could lead to an 80% decrease in the annual HIV incidence in 10 years. However, to reach both EHE targets, optimization of prevention funding early in the EHE period is necessary. Implementing these efficient allocations would require flexibility of funding across agencies, which might be difficult to achieve.

Epidemics and the future of coffee production.

In this perspective, we draw on recent scientific research on the coffee leaf rust (CLR) epidemic that severely impacted several countries across Latin America and the Caribbean over the last decade, to explore how the socioeconomic impacts from COVID-19 could lead to the reemergence of another rust epidemic. We describe how past CLR outbreaks have been linked to reduced crop care and investment in coffee farms, as evidenced in the years following the 2008 global financial crisis. We discuss relationships between CLR incidence, farmer-scale agricultural practices, and economic signals transferred through global and local effects. We contextualize how current COVID-19 impacts on labor, unemployment, stay-at-home orders, and international border policies could affect farmer investments in coffee plants and in turn create conditions favorable for future shocks. We conclude by arguing that COVID-19's socioeconomic disruptions are likely to drive the coffee industry into another severe production crisis. While this argument illustrates the vulnerabilities that come from a globalized coffee system, it also highlights the necessity of ensuring the well-being of all. By increasing investments in coffee institutions and paying smallholders more, we can create a fairer and healthier system that is more resilient to future social-ecological shocks.

Imbalance and breakout in the post-epidemic era: Research into the spatial patterns of freight demand network in six provinces of central China.

This study aims to explore the freight demand network spatial patterns in six provinces of central China from the perspective of the spread of the epidemic and the freight imbalance and breakout. To achieve this purpose, the big data of "cart search" demand information provided by small and medium freight enterprises on the freight information platform are analyzed. 343,690 pieces of freight demand big data on the freight information platform and Python, ArcGIS, UCINET, and Gephi software are used. The results show that: (1) The choke-point of unbalanced freight demand network is Wuhan, and the secondary choke-points are Hefei and Zhengzhou. (2) In southern China, a chain reaction circle of freight imbalance is formed with Wuhan, Hefei, and Nanchang as the centers. In northern China, a chain reaction circle of freight imbalance is formed with Zhengzhou and Taiyuan as the centers. (3) The freight demand of the six provinces in central China exhibits typical characteristics of long tail distribution with large span and unbalanced distribution. (4) The import and export of freight in different cities vary greatly, and the distribution is unbalanced. This study indicates the imbalance difference, chain reaction, keys and hidden troubles posed by the freight demand network. From the perspectives of freight transfer breakout, freight balance breakout, freight strength breakout, and breakout of freight periphery cities, we propose solutions to breakouts in the freight market in six provinces of central China in the post-epidemic era.

Ending the HIV Epidemic Among Persons Who Inject Drugs: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Six US Cities.

BACKGROUND: Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection. We aimed to determine the highest-valued combination implementation strategies to reduce the burden of HIV among PWID in 6 US cities. METHODS: Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, and Seattle, we assessed the value of implementing combinations of evidence-based interventions at optimistic (drawn from best available evidence) or ideal (90% coverage) scale-up. We estimated reduction in HIV incidence among PWID, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each city (10-year implementation; 20-year horizon; 2018 $ US). RESULTS: Combinations that maximized health benefits contained between 6 (Atlanta and Seattle) and 12 (Miami) interventions with ICER values ranging from $94 069/QALY in Los Angeles to $146 256/QALY in Miami. These strategies reduced HIV incidence by 8.1% (credible interval [CI], 2.8%-13.2%) in Seattle and 54.4% (CI, 37.6%-73.9%) in Miami. Incidence reduction reached 16.1%-75.5% at ideal scale. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based interventions targeted to PWID can deliver considerable value; however, ending the HIV epidemic among PWID will require innovative implementation strategies and supporting programs to reduce social and structural barriers to care.

Costs and benefits of interventions aimed at major infectious disease threats: lessons from the literature.

Pandemics and major outbreaks have the potential to cause large health losses and major economic costs. To prioritize between preventive and responsive interventions, it is important to understand the costs and health losses interventions may prevent. We review the literature, investigating the type of studies performed, the costs and benefits included, and the methods employed against perceived major outbreak threats. We searched PubMed and SCOPUS for studies concerning the outbreaks of SARS in 2003, H5N1 in 2003, H1N1 in 2009, Cholera in Haiti in 2010, MERS-CoV in 2013, H7N9 in 2013, and Ebola in West-Africa in 2014. We screened titles and abstracts of papers, and subsequently examined remaining full-text papers. Data were extracted according to a pre-constructed protocol. We included 34 studies of which the majority evaluated interventions related to the H1N1 outbreak in a high-income setting. Most interventions concerned pharmaceuticals. Included costs and benefits, as well as the methods applied, varied substantially between studies. Most studies used a short time horizon and did not include future costs and benefits. We found substantial variation in the included elements and methods used. Policymakers need to be aware of this and the bias toward high-income countries and pharmaceutical interventions, which hampers generalizability. More standardization of included elements, methodology, and reporting would improve economic evaluations and their usefulness for policy.

Ending the HIV epidemic in the USA: an economic modelling study in six cities.

BACKGROUND: The HIV epidemic in the USA is a collection of diverse local microepidemics. We aimed to identify optimal combination implementation strategies of evidence-based interventions to reach 90% reduction of incidence in 10 years, in six US cities that comprise 24·1% of people living with HIV in the USA. METHODS: In this economic modelling study, we used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated with the best available evidence on epidemiological and structural conditions for six US cities: Atlanta (GA), Baltimore (MD), Los Angeles (CA), Miami (FL), New York City (NY), and Seattle (WA). We assessed 23 040 combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions (ie, HIV prevention, testing, treatment, engagement, and re-engagement) to identify combination strategies providing the greatest health benefit while remaining cost-effective. Main outcomes included averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total cost (in 2018 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; from the health-care sector perspective, 3% annual discount rate). Interventions were implemented at previously documented and ideal (90% coverage or adoption) scale-up, and sustained from 2020 to 2030, with outcomes evaluated until 2040. FINDINGS: Optimal combination strategies providing health benefit and cost-effectiveness contained between nine (Seattle) and 13 (Miami) individual interventions. If implemented at previously documented scale-up, these strategies could reduce incidence by between 30·7% (95% credible interval 19·1-43·7; Seattle) and 50·1% (41·5-58·0; New York City) by 2030, at ICERs ranging from cost-saving in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami, to $95 416 per QALY in Seattle. Incidence reductions reached between 39·5% (26·3-53·8) in Seattle and 83·6% (70·8-87·0) in Baltimore at ideal implementation. Total costs of implementing strategies across the cities at previously documented scale-up reached $559 million per year in 2024; however, costs were offset by long-term reductions in new infections and delayed disease progression, with Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami projecting cost savings over the 20 year study period. INTERPRETATION: Evidence-based interventions can deliver substantial public health and economic value; however, complementary strategies to overcome social and structural barriers to HIV care will be required to reach national targets of the ending the HIV epidemic initiative by 2030. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

The Growing Problem of Hepatitis C Virus Infection: The Case of West Virginia.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the most significant public health problems currently facing the United States, especially in West Virginia. If it is undetected and left untreated, the likelihood of sustaining a treatment response decreases. While early identification has been identified as a critical focus in trying to obtain better health outcomes, new drug treatments appear promising, if somewhat expensive. West Virginia is a predominantly rural state, where the incidence of HCV is 9 times the national average and Medicaid costs for treatment amounted to more than $27 million from 2014 to 2016. The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the effects of early identification and treatment for patients infected with HCV as it relates to West Virginia. A comprehensive systematic review was limited to 58 articles published from 2008 to 2018 and were in English. Findings from this review identified early detection as the first line of a preventive strategy to help reduce the evolving epidemic and that oral medications could reduce the risk of liver cancer and death. The cost associated with hospitalization of HCV more than tripled from $20 963 in 2005 to $64 867 in 2011 with the average charge per hospitalization at $53 626 due to HVC. The lack of adequate treatment options has led to increasing (and even more expensive) hospital care for untreated HCV. These facts suggest that this state might be facing an expected financial health care crisis due to its increasingly drug-related HCV-infected population.

Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness against the Risk of Hospitalization and the Impact of Using Public Funds for the Vaccine on a Regional Rotavirus Gastroenteritis Epidemic in Japan.

An epidemic of rotavirus (RV) gastroenteritis occurred from April to July 2015 across a wide area of Hokkaido, surrounding the Abashiri-Kosei General Hospital. The RV vaccine for children in Shari and Koshimizu was provided at public funds by their local governments, while children in Abashiri were charged for the vaccine. This study examined the effectiveness of the RV vaccine against the risk of hospitalization based on a retrospective cohort study and the impact of using public funds for RV vaccination on a regional RV gastroenteritis epidemic. The vaccination coverage was significantly higher in children in Shari and Koshimizu than in Abashiri (87.8% vs. 42.7%, respectively, p < 0.001). The RV gastroenteritis-related risk of hospitalization was slightly lower in children from Shari and Koshimizu than in those from Abashiri (1.6% vs. 3.2%, respectively, p = 0.07). In addition, the risk of hospitalization in the vaccinated children was significantly lower than that in the unvaccinated children (0.7% vs. 4.8%, respectively, p < 0.001); indicating that the RV vaccine effectiveness against the risk of hospitalization was 96.5% (95% confidence interval 45.7%-99.8%). In conclusion, the use of public funds for the provision of RV vaccine increased the vaccination coverage, which, in combination with high vaccine effectiveness, led to a decrease in the number of hospitalizations in children during a regional RV gastroenteritis epidemic.

A scoping review on economic globalization in relation to the obesity epidemic.

This study reviewed evidence linking economic globalization to the obesity epidemic. Keyword/reference search was performed in PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Scopus, EconLit, Google Scholar, and BMC Globalization and Health. A total of 16 studies were identified, in which six adopted a cross-sectional study design, nine adopted a longitudinal study design, and the remaining one adopted a case-control study design. Thirteen studies assessed the relationship between economic globalization and obesity at the country level, whereas the remaining three analyzed individual-level data. Fourteen studies found at least one aspect and/or measure of economic globalization to be positively associated with overweight/obesity, one found an inverse association, and the remaining one reported a null finding. Through market deregulation, tariff reduction, and investment liberalization, economic globalization tends to accelerate the market entry of modern food manufacturers, supermarket chains, and fast-food restaurants, resulting in substantially increased supply of high-sugar/fat energy-dense foods with enhanced variety and accessibility and reduced price. The potential impact of economic globalization on obesity through the adoption of modern workplace and domestic technologies and motorized transportation and through changes in social norms and culture were hypothesized in the literature but not empirically examined, which warrants future data-driven research.

Costs associated with measles in healthcare personnel during the 2017-2018 epidemic in Greece: a real-world data cost-of-illness analysis.

Measles represents an occupational risk for healthcare personnel (HCP). A total of 117 cases of measles among HCP were notified in Greece during 2017-2018. We were able to contact 46 of them. Most of those contacted had a serious clinical course with complications, necessitating hospitalization in 67% of cases. All HCP reported absenteeism, for a mean duration of 21.2 working days (range: 3-60 days); 54.3% of HCP reported being at work while symptomatic for a mean duration of 2.3 working days (range: 1-7 days). The average total cost-of-illness was €4,739 per HCP. The total direct and indirect costs of the 117 notified cases among HCP amount to €554,494, which is likely to be an underestimate of the true cost.

Long-distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment.

Although the economic consequences of epidemic outbreaks to affected areas are often well documented, little is known about how these might carry over into the economies of unaffected regions. In the absence of direct pathogen transmission, global trade is one mechanism through which geographically distant epidemics could reverberate to unaffected countries. This study explores the link between global public health events and U.S. economic outcomes by evaluating the role of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak in U.S. exports and exports-supported U.S. jobs, 2005-2016. Estimates were obtained using difference-in-differences models where sub-Saharan Africa countries were assigned to treatment and comparison groups based on their Ebola transmission status, with controls for observed and unobserved time-variant factors that may independently influence trends in trade. Multiple model specification checks were performed to ensure analytic robustness. The year of peak transmission, 2014, was estimated to result in $1.08 billion relative reduction in U.S. merchandise exports to Ebola-affected countries, whereas estimated losses in exports-supported U.S. jobs exceeded 1,200 in 2014 and 11,000 in 2015. These findings suggest that remote disruptions in health security might play a role in U.S. economic indicators, demonstrating the interconnectedness between global health and aspects of the global economy and informing the relevance of health security efforts.

The Public Health Benefits and Economic Value of Routine Yellow Fever Vaccination in Colombia.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the public health benefits and economic value of live-attenuated yellow fever (YF) 17D vaccine in Colombia. METHODS: A decision tree model was used to assess the theoretical impact of routine YF vaccination of 1-year-olds (no "catch-up") during the interepidemic period from 1980 to 2002, avoiding capturing the impact of YF vaccine introduction in 2003. The vaccine was assumed to be 99% effective, to provide lifetime protection, and to cover 85% of the target population. Costs per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted were computed from payer and societal perspectives. Univariate sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: During the interepidemic period, routine YF vaccination would have averted 2223 nonfatal cases of YF and 65 deaths, leading to an overall reduction of 1365 DALYs. The net cost of this vaccination would have been $25 964 813 (payer's perspective) and $16 535 465 (societal perspective). Cost per DALY averted was $19 022 and $12 114 from payer and societal perspectives, respectively (all costs in 2015 US dollars). Vaccination was considered cost-effective from both perspectives (ie, between 1- and 3-fold the gross domestic product per capita, $7158) and remains so if price per dose was $2.75 or less and $4.66 from payer and societal perspectives, respectively. Underreporting had the largest impact on the results. CONCLUSIONS: Routine toddler YF vaccination in Colombia would have been considered cost-effective in the prevaccination era. This study provides insights on the value of vaccination in an upper middle-income country.