Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever.

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.

Medical and Indirect Costs Associated with a Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever Epidemic in Arizona, 2002-2011.

Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) is an emerging public health issue on some American Indian reservations in Arizona. RMSF causes an acute febrile illness that, if untreated, can cause severe illness, permanent sequelae requiring lifelong medical support, and death. We describe costs associated with medical care, loss of productivity, and death among cases of RMSF on two American Indian reservations (estimated population 20,000) between 2002 and 2011. Acute medical costs totaled more than $1.3 million. This study further estimated $181,100 in acute productivity lost due to illness, and $11.6 million in lifetime productivity lost from premature death. Aggregate costs of RMSF cases in Arizona 2002-2011 amounted to $13.2 million. We believe this to be a significant underestimate of the cost of the epidemic, but it underlines the severity of the disease and need for a more comprehensive study.