Prevention and control of dengue and chikungunya in Colombia: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chikungunya and dengue are emerging diseases that have caused large outbreaks in various regions of the world. Both are both spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos. We developed a dynamic transmission model of chikungunya and dengue, calibrated to data from Colombia (June 2014 -December 2017). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We evaluated the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of residual insecticide treatment, long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, routine dengue vaccination for children aged 9, catchup vaccination for individuals aged 10-19 or 10-29, and portfolios of these interventions. Model calibration resulted in 300 realistic transmission parameters sets that produced close matches to disease-specific incidence and deaths. Insecticide was the preferred intervention and was cost-effective. Insecticide averted an estimated 95 chikungunya cases and 114 dengue cases per 100,000 people, 61 deaths, and 4,523 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In sensitivity analysis, strategies that included dengue vaccination were cost-effective only when the vaccine cost was 14% of the current price. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Insecticide to prevent chikungunya and dengue in Colombia could generate significant health benefits and be cost-effective. Because of limits on diagnostic accuracy and vaccine efficacy, the cost of dengue testing and vaccination must decrease dramatically for such vaccination to be cost-effective in Colombia. The vectors for chikungunya and dengue have recently spread to new regions, highlighting the importance of understanding the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies aimed at preventing these diseases.

Socioeconomic and health impacts of fall armyworm in Ethiopia.

Since 2016, fall armyworm (FAW) has threatened sub-Saharan 'Africa's fragile food systems and economic performance. Yet, there is limited evidence on this transboundary pest's economic and food security impacts in the region. Additionally, the health and environmental consequences of the insecticides being used to control FAW have not been studied. This paper presents evidence on the impacts of FAW on maize production, food security, and human and environmental health. We use a combination of an agroecology-based community survey and nationally representative data from an agricultural household survey to achieve our objectives. The results indicate that the pest causes an average annual loss of 36% in maize production, reducing 0.67 million tonnes of maize (0.225 million tonnes per year) between 2017 and 2019. The total economic loss is US$ 200 million, or 0.08% of the gross domestic product. The lost production could have met the per capita maize consumption of 4 million people. We also find that insecticides to control FAW have more significant toxic effects on the environment than on humans. This paper highlights governments and development partners need to invest in sustainable FAW control strategies to reduce maize production loss, improve food security, and protect human and environmental health.

The potential economic benefits of controlling trypanosomiasis using waterbuck repellent blend in sub-Saharan Africa.

Trypanosomiasis is a significant productivity-limiting livestock disease in sub-Saharan Africa, contributing to poverty and food insecurity. In this paper, we estimate the potential economic gains from adopting Waterbuck Repellent Blend (WRB). The WRB is a new technology that pushes trypanosomiasis-transmitting tsetse fly away from animals, improving animals' health and increasing meat and milk productivity. We estimate the benefits of WRB on the production of meat and milk using the economic surplus approach. We obtained data from an expert elicitation survey, secondary and experimental sources. Our findings show that the adoption of WRB in 5 to 50% of the animal population would generate an economic surplus of US$ 78-869 million per annum for African 18 countries. The estimated benefit-cost ratio (9:1) further justifies an investment in WRB. The technology's potential benefits are likely to be underestimated since our estimates did not include the indirect benefits of the technology adoption, such as the increase in the quantity and quality of animals' draught power services and human and environmental health effects. These benefits suggest that investing in WRB can contribute to nutrition security and sustainable development goals.

Estimating willingness-to-pay for neonicotinoid-free plants: Incorporating pro-environmental behavior in hypothetical and non-hypothetical experiments.

This study investigates the extent to which individuals' perceptions and attitudes toward pesticides and pollinator related labeling influence their preferences for eco-labeled products. An incentive compatible second-price auction and a hypothetical discrete choice experiment were used to elicit individual preferences for ornamental plants grown with or without controversial (neonicotinoid) pesticides. Positive attitudes toward pollinators, neonicotinoid labeling regulations, and labeling of sustainable production methods were found to be significant predictors of individual choice behavior. Individuals with attitudes expressing concern for pollinators and agreement with mandatory labeling and disclosure of neonicotinoids, showed a stronger preference for neonicotinoid-free plants. Our results suggest that both hypothetical and non-hypothetical experiments are consistent in predicting the general direction of consumer preferences despite the elicitation mechanism. Implications for relevant stakeholders are discussed.

Analysis of gaps in feline ectoparasiticide purchases from veterinary clinics in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The study objective was to examine cat owner ectoparasiticide purchases in the United States and estimate the impact of purchase gaps on timely ectoparasite protection administration. These purchase gaps lead to periods of time when cats are unprotected from ectoparasites. METHODS: Ectoparasiticide purchase transactions for individual cats from 671 U.S. veterinary clinics from January 1, 2017 through June 30, 2019 were evaluated to determine time "gaps" between doses of ectoparasiticides purchased in a defined 12-month period. Ectoparasiticides examined were topically applied products that contained fluralaner, fipronil/(S)-methoprene/pyriproxyfen, imidacloprid/pyriproxyfen or selamectin as active ingredients. The duration of protection following administration of one dose was 8-12 weeks for the fluralaner-containing product and one month for the other products. RESULTS: Ectoparasiticide purchase records were obtained from 114,853 cat owners and analysis found that most owners bought ≤ 6 months of protection during the year, with 61-75% (depending on the product) purchasing just 1-3 months of protection. The size of the average purchase gap was determined for all dose combinations out to 12 months of protection (5-7 doses for fluralaner and 12 doses for the other three products dosed monthly. The largest gaps occurred between the first and second doses and the second and third doses. Average purchase gaps for the four different products between doses 1 and 2 ranged from 11.2 to 13.9 weeks and between doses 2 and 3 ranged from 7.7 to 12.2 weeks. The fraction of purchases separated by gaps and the average length of the gap tended to decrease with increasing number of doses purchased. Owners purchasing the 8 to 12-week duration product containing fluralaner provided ectoparasite protection ("doses plus gap period") for a larger proportion of each 2-dose period compared with owners purchasing products administered monthly. CONCLUSIONS: When cat owners purchase flea and tick medication, gaps between subsequent purchases reduces the proportion of time ectoparasite protection can be provided. The duration of the gap between doses has an impact on the effectiveness of flea/tick medication because it inserts a period without flea and tick protection between doses of flea and tick medication. The gaps between purchases were shorter and the period of ectoparasite protection was larger for owners purchasing a 12-week product than for owners purchasing a monthly product.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of reactive, targeted indoor residual spraying for malaria control in low-transmission settings: a cluster-randomised, non-inferiority trial in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Increasing insecticide costs and constrained malaria budgets could make universal vector control strategies, such as indoor residual spraying (IRS), unsustainable in low-transmission settings. We investigated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a reactive, targeted IRS strategy. METHODS: This cluster-randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial compared reactive, targeted IRS with standard IRS practice in northeastern South Africa over two malaria seasons (2015-17). In standard IRS clusters, programme managers conducted annual mass spray campaigns prioritising areas using historical data, expert opinion, and other factors. In targeted IRS clusters, only houses of index cases (identified through passive surveillance) and their immediate neighbours were sprayed. The non-inferiority margin was 1 case per 1000 person-years. Health service costs of real-world implementation were modelled from primary and secondary data. Incremental costs per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) were estimated and deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses conducted. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02556242. FINDINGS: Malaria incidence was 0·95 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0·58 to 1·32) in the standard IRS group and 1·05 per 1000 person-years (0·72 to 1·38) in the targeted IRS group, corresponding to a rate difference of 0·10 per 1000 person-years (-0·38 to 0·59), demonstrating non-inferiority for targeted IRS (p<0·0001). Per additional DALY incurred, targeted IRS saved US$7845 (2902 to 64 907), giving a 94-98% probability that switching to targeted IRS would be cost-effective relative to plausible cost-effectiveness thresholds for South Africa ($2637 to $3557 per DALY averted). Depending on the threshold used, targeted IRS would remain cost-effective at incidences of less than 2·0-2·7 per 1000 person-years. Findings were robust to plausible variation in other parameters. INTERPRETATION: Targeted IRS was non-inferior, safe, less costly, and cost-effective compared with standard IRS in this very-low-transmission setting. Saved resources could be reallocated to other malaria control and elimination activities. FUNDING: Joint Global Health Trials.

A cost analysis to address issues of budget constraints on the implementation of the indoor residual spray programme in two districts of Maputo Province, Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: It is frequently said that funding is essential to ensure optimal results from a malaria intervention control. However, in recent years, the capacity of the government of Mozambique to sustain the operational cost of indoor residual spraying (IRS) is facing numerous challenges due to restrictions of the Official Development Assistance. The purpose of the study was to estimate the cost of IRS operationalization in two districts of Maputo Province (Matutuíne and Namaacha) in Mozambique. The evidence produced in this study intends to provide decision-makers with insight into where they need to pay close attention in future planning in order to operationalize IRS with the existent budget in the actual context of budget restrictions. METHODS: Cost information was collected retrospectively from the provider perspective, and both economic and financial costs were calculated. A "one-way" deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed. RESULTS: The average economic costs totaled US$117,351.34, with an average economic cost per household sprayed of US$16.35, and an average economic cost per person protected of US$4.09. The average financial cost totaled US$69,174.83, with an average financial cost per household sprayed and per person protected of US$9.84 and US$2.46, respectively. Vehicle, salary, and insecticide costs were the greatest contributors to overall cost in the economic and financial analysis, corresponding to 52%, 17%, and 13% in the economic analysis and 21%, 27%, and 22% in the financial analysis, respectively. The sensitivity analysis was adapted to a range of ± (above and under) 25% change. There was an approximate change of 14% in the average economic cost when vehicle costs were decreased by 25%. In the financial analysis, the average financial cost was lowered by 7% when salary costs were decreased by 25%. CONCLUSIONS: Altogether, the current cost analysis provides an impetus for the consideration of targeted IRS operationalization within the available governmental budget, by using locally-available human resources as spray operators to decrease costs and having IRS rounds be correctly timed to coincide with the build-up of vector populations.

Adherence to veterinary recommendations for ectoparasiticides purchased by cat owners in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Safe and effective flea and tick treatment options for cats are important in companion animal practice because of feline ectoparasite infestation prevalence and the potential for parasitic disease transmission. Retrospective cat owner purchasing transactions at United States of America (USA) veterinary clinics were obtained for three topical feline flea and tick ectoparasiticides. One medication, fluralaner, had a 12-week redosing interval, while two other medications (fipronil/s-methoprene/pyriproxyfen; imidacloprid/pyriproxyfen) were approved for monthly redosing. The annual number of doses purchased by cat owners was determined for each of the three medications and then compared between medications. The objective was to evaluate whether 12-week retreatment intervals resulted in a different duration of coverage compared to monthly treatments for ectoparasiticide products. METHODS: Study results were obtained by analyzing the transactional records from a commercial database derived from veterinary practice management software. The study database consisted of cat owner purchasing records from January 2017 through June 2019 from 671 veterinary practices representing 41,630 cats. RESULTS: Cat owners purchased an average of 1.5 doses of fluralaner per year which, based on a 12-week redosing interval, provides 4.2 months of treatment coverage. Cat owners who used monthly flea and tick medications respectively purchased 3.6 months (fipronil/s-methoprene/pyriproxyfen combination) and 2.8 months (imidacloprid/pyriproxyfen) annually of each of the two medications. Average yearly cat owner purchases of fluralaner provide a significantly longer duration of coverage than for cat owners purchasing fipronil/s-methoprene/pyriproxyfen (17% more) or imidacloprid/pyriproxyfen (50% more). CONCLUSIONS: Cat owners who obtained a flea and tick treatment with a 12-week redosing interval (fluralaner) protected their cats for up to 17% or 50% longer duration each year, respectively, compared to the duration of protection obtained by cat owners who used a medication re-dosed monthly. Cat owners should increase their duration of flea and tick coverage to come closer to achieving veterinary recommendations.

Long-lasting microbial larvicides for controlling insecticide resistant and outdoor transmitting vectors: a cost-effective supplement for malaria interventions.

The issues of pyrethroid resistance and outdoor malaria parasite transmission have prompted the WHO to call for the development and adoption of viable alternative vector control methods. Larval source management is one of the core malaria vector interventions recommended by the Ministry of Health in many African countries, but it is rarely implemented due to concerns on its cost-effectiveness. New long-lasting microbial larvicide can be a promising cost-effective supplement to current vector control and elimination methods because microbial larvicide uses killing mechanisms different from pyrethroids and other chemical insecticides. It has been shown to be effective in reducing the overall vector abundance and thus both indoor and outdoor transmission. In our opinion, the long-lasting formulation can potentially reduce the cost of larvicide field application, and should be evaluated for its cost-effectiveness, resistance development, and impact on non-target organisms when integrating with other malaria vector control measures. In this opinion, we highlight that long-lasting microbial larvicide can be a potential cost-effective product that complements current front-line long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) programs for malaria control and elimination. Microbial larviciding targets immature mosquitoes, reduces both indoor and outdoor transmission and is not affected by vector resistance to synthetic insecticides. This control method is a shift from the conventional LLINs and IRS programs that mainly target indoor-biting and resting adult mosquitoes.

Outdoor Residual Insecticide Spraying (ODRS), a New Approach for the Control of the Exophilic Vectors of Human Visceral Leishmaniasis: Phlebotomus orientalis in East Africa.

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) due to Leishmania donovani is a neglected protozoan parasitic disease in humans, which is usually fatal if untreated. Phlebotomus orientalis, the predominant VL vector in East Africa, is a highly exophilic/exophagic species that poses a major challenge to current Integrated Vector Management (IVM). Here we report results of pilot studies conducted in rural villages in Gedarif state, Sudan, to evaluate outdoor residual spraying of 20mg active ingredient (a.i.) /m2 deltamethrin insecticide applied to the characteristic household compound boundary reed fence and to the outside of household buildings (Outdoor Residual Insecticide Spraying, ODRS), and as an alternative, spraying restricted to the boundary fence only (Restricted Outdoor Residual Insecticide Spraying, RODRS). Four to six clusters of 20 households were assigned to insecticide treatments or control in three experiments. Changes in sand fly numbers were monitored over 2,033 trap-nights over 43-76 days follow-up in four sentinel houses per cluster relative to unsprayed control clusters. Sand fly numbers were monitored by sticky traps placed on the ground on the inside ("outdoor") and the outside ("peridomestic") of the boundary fence, and by CDC light traps suspended outdoors in the household compound. The effects of ODRS on sand fly numbers inside sleeping huts were monitored by insecticide knockdown. After a single application, ODRS reduced P. orientalis abundance by 83%-99% in outdoor and peridomestic trap locations. ODRS also reduced numbers of P. orientalis found resting inside sleeping huts. RODRS reduced outdoor and peridomestic P. orientalis by 60%-88%. By direct comparison, RODRS was 58%-100% as effective as ODRS depending on the trapping method. These impacts were immediate on intervention and persisted during follow-up, representing a large fraction of the P. orientalis activity season. Relative costs of ODRS and RODRS delivery were $5.76 and $3.48 per household, respectively. The study demonstrates the feasibility and high entomological efficacy of ODRS and RODRS, and the expected low costs relative to current IVM practises. These methods represent novel sand fly vector control tools against predominantly exophilic/exophagic sand fly vectors, aimed to lower VL burdens in Sudan, with potential application in other endemic regions in East Africa.

Comparative functional survival and equivalent annual cost of 3 long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) products in Tanzania: A randomised trial with 3-year follow up.

BACKGROUND: Two billion long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been procured for malaria control. A functional LLIN is one that is present, is in good physical condition, and remains insecticidal, thereby providing protection against vector-borne diseases through preventing bites and killing disease vectors. The World Health Organization (WHO) prequalifies LLINs that remain adequately insecticidal 3 years after deployment. Therefore, institutional buyers often assume that prequalified LLINs are functionally identical with a 3-year lifespan. We measured the lifespans of 3 LLIN products, and calculated their cost per year of functional life, to demonstrate the economic and public health importance of procuring the most cost-effective LLIN product based on its lifespan. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A randomised double-blinded trial of 3 pyrethroid LLIN products (10,571 nets in total) was conducted at 3 follow-up points: 10 months (August-October 2014), 22 months (August-October 2015), and 36 months (October-December 2016) among 3,393 households in Tanzania using WHO-recommended methods. Primary outcome was LLIN functional survival (LLIN present and in serviceable condition). Secondary outcomes were (1) bioefficacy and chemical content (residual insecticidal activity) and (2) protective efficacy for volunteers sleeping under the LLINs (bite reduction and mosquitoes killed). Median LLIN functional survival was significantly different between the 3 net products (p = 0.001): 2.0 years (95% CI 1.7-2.3) for Olyset, 2.5 years (95% CI 2.2-2.8) for PermaNet 2.0 (hazard ratio [HR] 0.73 [95% CI 0.64-0.85], p = 0.001), and 2.6 years (95% CI 2.3-2.8) for NetProtect (HR = 0.70 [95% CI 0.62-0.77], p < 0.001). Functional survival was affected by accumulation of holes, leading to users discarding nets. Protective efficacy also significantly differed between products as they aged. Equivalent annual cost varied between US$1.2 (95% CI $1.1-$1.4) and US$1.5 (95% CI $1.3-$1.7), assuming that each net was priced identically at US$3. The 2 longer-lived nets (PermaNet and NetProtect) were 20% cheaper than the shorter-lived product (Olyset). The trial was limited to only the most widely sold LLINs in Tanzania. Functional survival varies by country, so the single country setting is a limitation. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that LLIN functional survival is less than 3 years and differs substantially between products, and these differences strongly influence LLIN value for money. LLIN tendering processes should consider local expectations of cost per year of functional life and not unit price. As new LLIN products come on the market, especially those with new insecticides, it will be imperative to monitor their comparative durability to ensure that the most cost-effective products are procured for malaria control.

Delivering 'tiny targets' in a remote region of southern Chad: a cost analysis of tsetse control in the Mandoul sleeping sickness focus.

BACKGROUND: Since 2012, the World Health Organisation and the countries affected by the Gambian form of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) have been committed to eliminating the disease, primarily through active case-finding and treatment. To interrupt transmission of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense and move more rapidly towards elimination, it was decided to add vector control using 'tiny targets'. Chad's Mandoul HAT focus extends over 840 km2, with a human population of 39,000 as well as 14,000 cattle and 3000 pigs. Some 2700 tiny targets were deployed annually from 2014 onwards. METHODS: A protocol was developed for the routine collection of tsetse control costs during all field missions. This was implemented throughout 2015 and 2016, and combined with the recorded costs of the preliminary survey and sensitisation activities. The objective was to calculate the full costs at local prices in Chad. Costs were adjusted to remove research components and to ensure that items outside the project budget lines were included, such as administrative overheads and a share of staff salaries. RESULTS: Targets were deployed at about 60 per linear km of riverine tsetse habitat. The average annual cost of the operation was USD 56,113, working out at USD 66.8 per km2 protected and USD 1.4 per person protected. Of this, 12.8% was an annual share of the initial tsetse survey, 40.6% for regular tsetse monitoring undertaken three times a year, 36.8% for target deployment and checking and 9.8% for sensitisation of local populations. Targets accounted for 8.3% of the cost, and the cost of delivering a target was USD 19.0 per target deployed. CONCLUSIONS: This study has confirmed that tiny targets provide a consistently low cost option for controlling tsetse in gambiense HAT foci. Although the study area is remote with a tsetse habitat characterised by wide river marshes, the costs were similar to those of tiny target work in Uganda, with some differences, in particular a higher cost per target delivered. As was the case in Uganda, the cost was between a quarter and a third that of historical target operations using full size targets or traps.

Quantifying Positive Health Externalities of Disease Control Interventions: Modeling Chikungunya and Dengue.

Purpose. Health interventions can generate positive externalities not captured in traditional, single-disease cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs), potentially biasing results. We illustrate this with the example of mosquito-borne diseases. When a particular mosquito species can transmit multiple diseases, a single-disease CEA comparing disease-specific interventions (e.g., vaccination) with interventions targeting the mosquito population (e.g., insecticide) would underestimate the insecticide's full benefits (i.e., preventing other diseases). Methods. We developed three dynamic transmission models: chikungunya, dengue, and combined chikungunya and dengue, each calibrated to disease-specific incidence and deaths in Colombia (June 2014 to December 2017). We compared the models' predictions of the incremental benefits and cost-effectiveness of an insecticide (10% efficacy), hypothetical chikungunya and dengue vaccines (40% coverage, 95% efficacy), and combinations of these interventions. Results. Model calibration yielded realistic parameters that produced close matches to disease-specific incidence and deaths. The chikungunya model predicted that vaccine would decrease the incidence of chikungunya and avert more total deaths than insecticide. The dengue model predicted that insecticide and the dengue vaccine would reduce dengue incidence and deaths, with no effect for the chikungunya vaccine. In the combined model, insecticide was more effective than either vaccine in reducing the incidence of and deaths from both diseases. In all models, the combined strategy was at least as effective as the most effective single strategy. In an illustrative CEA, the most frequently preferred strategy was vaccine in the chikungunya model, the status quo in the dengue model, and insecticide in the combined model. Limitations. There is uncertainty in the target calibration data. Conclusions. Failure to capture positive externalities can bias CEA results, especially when evaluating interventions that affect multiple diseases. Multidisease modeling is a reasonable alternative for addressing such biases.

Neonicotinoid seed treatments of soybean provide negligible benefits to US farmers.

Neonicotinoids are the most widely used insecticides worldwide and are typically deployed as seed treatments (hereafter NST) in many grain and oilseed crops, including soybeans. However, there is a surprising dearth of information regarding NST effectiveness in increasing soybean seed yield, and most published data suggest weak, or inconsistent yield benefit. The US is the key soybean-producing nation worldwide and this work includes soybean yield data from 194 randomized and replicated field studies conducted specifically to evaluate the effect of NSTs on soybean seed yield at sites within 14 states from 2006 through 2017. Here we show that across the principal soybean-growing region of the country, there are negligible and management-specific yield benefits attributed to NSTs. Across the entire region, the maximum observed yield benefits due to fungicide (FST = fungicide seed treatment) + neonicotinoid use (FST + NST) reached 0.13 Mg/ha. Across the entire region, combinations of management practices affected the effectiveness of FST + NST to increase yield but benefits were minimal ranging between 0.01 to 0.22 Mg/ha. Despite widespread use, this practice appears to have little benefit for most of soybean producers; across the entire region, a partial economic analysis further showed inconsistent evidence of a break-even cost of FST or FST + NST. These results demonstrate that the current widespread prophylactic use of NST in the key soybean-producing areas of the US should be re-evaluated by producers and regulators alike.

Cost-Effectiveness of Indoor Residual Spraying of Households with Insecticide for Malaria Prevention and Control in Tanzania.

Using a decision-tree approach, we examined the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of households with insecticide combined with insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) distribution (IRS + ITN), compared with ITN distribution alone in the programmatic context of mainland Tanzania. The primary outcome of our model was the expected economic cost to society per case of malaria averted in children ≤ 5 years of age. Indoor residual spraying of households with insecticide data came from a program implemented in northwest Tanzania from 2008 to 2012; all other data originated from the published literature. Through sensitivity and scenario analyses, the model also examined the effects of variations in insecticide resistance, malaria prevalence, and different IRS modalities. In the base case, IRS + ITN is expected to be more expensive and more effective than the ITN-only intervention (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER]: $152.36). The number of IRS rounds, IRS insecticide costs, ITN use, malaria prevalence, and the probability that a child develops symptoms following infection drove the interventions' cost-effectiveness. Compared with universal spraying, targeted spraying is expected to lead to a higher number of malaria cases per person targeted (0.211-0.256 versus 0.050-0.076), but the incremental cost per case of malaria averted is expected to be lower (ICER: $41.70). In a scenario of increasing pyrethroid resistance, the incremental expected cost per case of malaria averted is expected to increase compared with the base case (ICER: $192.12). Tanzania should pursue universal IRS only in those regions that report high malaria prevalence. If the cost per case of malaria averted of universal IRS exceeds the willingness to pay, targeted spraying could provide an alternative, but may result in higher malaria prevalence.

Integrated cost-benefit analysis of tsetse control and herd productivity to inform control programs for animal African trypanosomiasis.

BACKGROUND: Animal African trypanosomiasis (AAT) and its tsetse vector are responsible for annual losses estimated in billions of US dollars ($). Recent years have seen the implementation of a series of multinational interventions. However, actors of AAT control face complex resource allocation decisions due to the geographical range of AAT, diversity of ecological and livestock systems, and range of control methods available. METHODS: The study presented here integrates an existing tsetse abundance model with a bio-economic herd model that captures local production characteristics as well as heterogeneities in AAT incidence and breed. These models were used to predict the impact of tsetse elimination on the net value of cattle production in the districts of Mambwe, in Zambia, and Faro et Déo in Cameroon. The net value of cattle production under the current situation was used as a baseline, and compared with alternative publicly funded control programmes. In Zambia, the current baseline is AAT control implemented privately by cattle owners (Scenario Z0). In Cameroon, the baseline (Scenario C0) is a small-scale publicly funded tsetse control programme and privately funded control at farm level. The model was run for 10 years, using a discount rate of 5%. RESULTS: Compared to Scenario C0, benefit-cost ratios (BCR) of 4.5 (4.4-4.7) for Scenario C1 (tsetse suppression using insecticide treatment of cattle (ITC) and traps + maintenance with ITC barrier), and 3.8 (3.6-4.0) for Scenario C2 (tsetse suppression using ITC and traps + maintenance with barrier of targets), were estimated in Cameroon. For Zambia, the benefit-cost ratio calculated for Scenarios Z1 (targets, ITC barrier), Z2 (targets, barrier traps), Z3 (aerial spraying, ITC barrier), and Z4 (aerial spraying, barrier traps) were 2.3 (1.8 - 2.7), 2.0 (1.6-2.4), 2.8 (2.3-3.3) and 2.5 (2.0-2.9), respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the profitability of the projects is relatively resistant to variations in the costs of the interventions and their technical efficiency. CONCLUSIONS: It is envisioned that the methodologies presented here will be useful for the evaluation and design of existing and future control programmes, ensuring they have tangible benefits in the communities they are targeting.

Management of a stage-structured insect pest: an application of approximate optimization.

Ecological decision problems frequently require the optimization of a sequence of actions over time where actions may have both immediate and downstream effects. Dynamic programming can solve such problems only if the dimensionality is sufficiently low. Approximate dynamic programming (ADP) provides a suite of methods applicable to problems of arbitrary complexity at the expense of guaranteed optimality. The most easily generalized method is the look-ahead policy: a brute-force algorithm that identifies reasonable actions by constructing and solving a series of temporally truncated approximations of the full problem over a defined planning horizon. We develop and apply this approach to a pest management problem inspired by the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata. The model aims to minimize the cumulative costs of management actions and medfly-induced losses over a single 16-week season. The medfly population is stage-structured and grows continuously while management decisions are made at discrete, weekly intervals. For each week, the model chooses between inaction, insecticide application, or one of six sterile insect release ratios. Look-ahead policy performance is evaluated over a range of planning horizons, two levels of crop susceptibility to medfly and three levels of pesticide persistence. In all cases, the actions proposed by the look-ahead policy are contrasted to those of a myopic policy that minimizes costs over only the current week. We find that look-ahead policies always out-performed a myopic policy and decision quality is sensitive to the temporal distribution of costs relative to the planning horizon: it is beneficial to extend the planning horizon when it excludes pertinent costs. However, longer planning horizons may reduce decision quality when major costs are resolved imminently. ADP methods such as the look-ahead-policy-based approach developed here render questions intractable to dynamic programming amenable to inference but should be applied carefully as their flexibility comes at the expense of guaranteed optimality. However, given the complexity of many ecological management problems, the capacity to propose a strategy that is "good enough" using a more representative problem formulation may be preferable to an optimal strategy derived from a simplified model.

Models of Disease Vector Control: When Can Aggressive Initial Intervention Lower Long-Term Cost?

Insecticide spraying of housing units is an important control measure for vector-borne infections such as Chagas disease. As vectors may invade both from other infested houses and sylvatic areas and as the effectiveness of insecticide wears off over time, the dynamics of (re)infestations can be approximated by [Formula: see text]-type models with a reservoir, where housing units are treated as hosts, and insecticide spraying corresponds to removal of hosts. Here, we investigate three ODE-based models of this type. We describe a dual-rate effect where an initially very high spraying rate can push the system into a region of the state space with low endemic levels of infestation that can be maintained in the long run at relatively moderate cost, while in the absence of an aggressive initial intervention the same average cost would only allow a much less significant reduction in long-term infestation levels. We determine some sufficient and some necessary conditions under which this effect occurs and show that it is robust in models that incorporate some heterogeneity in the relevant properties of housing units.