A Geospatial Analysis of the Availability, Distribution, and Accessibility of Neurosurgical Facilities, Workforce, and Infrastructure in Nigeria; and Projection Towards 2050.

OBJECTIVE: There has been a modest but progressive increase in the neurosurgical workforce, training, and service delivery in Nigeria in the last 2 decades. However, these resources are unevenly distributed. This study aimed to quantitatively assess the availability and distribution of neurosurgical resources in Nigeria while projecting the needed workforce capacity up to 2050. METHODS: An online survey of Nigerian neurosurgeons and residents assessed the country's neurosurgical infrastructure, workforce, and resources. The results were analyzed descriptively, and geospatial analysis was used to map their distribution. A projection model was fitted to predict workforce targets for 2022-2050. RESULTS: Out of 86 neurosurgery-capable health facilities, 65.1% were public hospitals, with only 17.4% accredited for residency training. Dedicated hospital beds and operating rooms for neurosurgery make up only 4.0% and 15.4% of the total, respectively. The population disease burden is estimated at 50.2 per 100,000, while the operative coverage was 153.2 cases per neurosurgeon. There are currently 132 neurosurgeons and 114 neurosurgery residents for a population of 218 million (ratio 1:1.65 million). There is an annual growth rate of 8.3%, resulting in a projected deficit of 1113 neurosurgeons by 2030 and 1104 by 2050. Timely access to neurosurgical care ranges from 21.6% to 86.7% of the population within different timeframes. CONCLUSIONS: Collaborative interventions are needed to address gaps in Nigeria's neurosurgical capacity. Investments in training, infrastructure, and funding are necessary for sustainable development and optimized outcomes.

Dermatology workforce projections in the United States, 2021 to 2036.

BACKGROUND: There has been a growing imbalance between supply of dermatologists and demand for dermatologic care. To best address physician shortages, it is important to delineate supply and demand patterns in the dermatologic workforce. The goal of this study was to explore dermatology supply and demand over time. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of workforce supply and demand projections for dermatologists from 2021 to 2036 using data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis. Estimates for total workforce supply and demand were summarized in aggregate and stratified by rurality. Scenarios with status quo demand and improved access were considered. RESULTS: Projected total supply showed a 12.45% increase by 2036. Total demand increased 12.70% by 2036 in the status quo scenario. In the improved access scenario, total supply was inadequate for total demand in any year, lagging by 28% in 2036. Metropolitan areas demonstrated a relative supply surplus up to 2036; nonmetropolitan areas had at least a 157% excess in demand throughout the study period. In 2021 adequacy was 108% and 39% adequacy for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, respectively; these differences were projected to continue through 2036. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the dermatology physician workforce is inadequate to meet the demand for dermatologic services in nonmetropolitan areas. Furthermore, improved access to dermatologic care would bolster demand and especially exacerbate workforce inadequacy in nonmetropolitan areas. Continued efforts are needed to address health inequities and ensure access to quality dermatologic care for all.

Trends in the mobility of primary healthcare human resources in underdeveloped regions of western China from 2000 to 2021: Evidence from Nanning.

OBJECTIVE: This research aimed to identify the fundamental and geographic characteristics of the primary healthcare personnel mobility in Nanning from 2000 to 2021 and clarify the determinants that affect their transition to non-primary healthcare institutions. METHODS: Through utilizing the Primary Healthcare Personnel Database (PHPD) for 2000-2021, the study conducts descriptive statistical analysis on demographic, economic, and professional aspects of healthcare personnel mobility across healthcare reform phases. Geographic Information Systems (QGIS) were used to map mobility patterns, and R software was employed to calculate spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I). Logistic regression identified factors that influenced the transition to non-primary institutions. RESULTS: Primary healthcare personnel mobility is divided into four phases: initial (2000-2008), turning point (2009-2011), rapid development (2012-2020), and decline (2021). The rapid development stage saw increased mobility with no spatial clustering in inflow and outflow. From 2016 to 2020, primary healthcare worker mobility reached its peak, in which the most significant movement occurred between township health centers and other institutions. Aside from their transition to primary medical institutions, the primary movement of grassroots health personnel predominantly directs towards secondary general hospitals, tertiary general hospitals, and secondary specialized hospitals. Since 2012, the number and mobility distance of primary healthcare workers have become noticeably larger and remained at a higher level from 2016 to 2020. The main migration of primary healthcare personnel occurred in their districts (counties). Key transition factors include gender, education, ethnicity, professional category, general practice registration, and administrative division. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of the features of primary healthcare personnel mobility in the less developed western regions of China, in which Nanning was taken as a case study. It uncovers the factors that impact the flow of primary healthcare personnel to non-primary healthcare institutions. These findings are helpful to policy refinement and support the retention of primary healthcare workers.

Trends in Orthopaedic Surgery Workforce Diversity: Analyzing Changes Over Time.

INTRODUCTION: There are many reasons why orthopaedic surgeons move or change careers. We asked the questions: (1) What is the geographic distribution of orthopaedic surgeons with respect to age, sex, and race and ethnicity? (2) How has our workforce changed over time with regard to these factors? (3) Are there any patterns or trends detected regarding policy or regulatory events that coincide with these differences? METHODS: The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons surveys over 30,000 members, collecting data on demographics, age, race sex, and practice statistics. We calculated geographic distributions and evaluated these differences over time-potential influences from malpractice suits or tort reform were investigated. RESULTS: Overall surgeon density increased over time. The largest negative changes were noted in District of Columbia, Wyoming, and North Dakota and positive changes in Colorado, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Age across all states increased (mean 1.7 years). Number of female surgeons increased in most states (4.6% to 5.7%). Number of African Americans increased from 1.6% to 1.8%, Hispanic/LatinX from 1.8% to 2.2%, Asian from 5.5% to 6.7%, and multiracial from 0.8% to 1.2%. No change was noted in the percentage of Native American surgeons. DISCUSSION: Surgeon density increased from 2012 to 2018; the cause for this change was not evident. Small increases in surgeon population, female surgeons, and in some underrepresented minorities were seen.

The changing psychiatry workforce in Australia: Still lacking in rural and remote regions.

INTRODUCTION: There is a long standing and worsening shortage of psychiatrists in Australia particularly in rural areas. The majority of psychiatrists work in major cities. OBJECTIVE: To identify recent trends in the Australian rural psychiatrist workforce compared with the metropolitan workforce. DESIGN: We descriptively analysed population-level data from the National Health Workforce Data Set (NHWDS), the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). A descriptive analysis of the numbers (count) and gender of psychiatrists from 1995 to 2022 working in Australia was conducted. For the period 2013 to 2022, we analysed for rurality, gender, years' experience, hours worked, Medicare-subsidised services provided and proportions of Specialist International Medical Graduates (SIMG) by sex, with a focus on the rural workforce. For international comparison, psychiatrist numbers were obtained for other OECD countries. The number of psychiatrists working in Australia, as per NHWDS and AIHW, was quantified. We analysed trends in demographics, hours worked and rurality of psychiatrists working in Australia in a serial cross-sectional design. FINDINGS: Most psychiatrists are maldistributed to major cities, while outer regional and remote areas have few resident psychiatrists. Outer regional New South Wales (NSW) and South Australia (SA) have the lowest numbers of psychiatrists per capita. The full-time equivalent (FTE) of psychiatrists per 100 000 has increased from 12.6 in 2000 to 15.2 in 2022. However, the average hours worked by psychiatrists has declined. In total, available psychiatrist hours worked per 100 000 population has increased by 6.1% since the beginning of the millennium. DISCUSSION: Rural areas in NSW and SA have the greatest shortage of psychiatrists. Specialist International Medical Graduates and females (43% of the overall workforce) are the predominant workforce in rural areas. Although Medicare-subsidised services per 1000 people have increased in rural areas, they remain lower than for those living in major cities. CONCLUSION: There remains an acute shortage of psychiatrists in many regional and remote areas of Australia, with an increasing proportion of SIMGs and females working in these areas, in the context of future increased demand.

Characterizing the direct care health workforce in the United States, 2010-2019.

BACKGROUND: To describe the growth and characteristics of the direct care health workforce, encompassing home health aides, personal care aides, nursing assistants, and orderlies and psychiatric aides from 2010 to 2019 in the United States. METHODS: Using nationally representative data from the 2010 to 2019 American Community Survey, we described the growth in the direct care health workforce overall and by type of direct care health worker. In addition, we examined the distribution of direct care workers by geographic region of the country, age categories, citizenship, world area of birth, income, health insurance status, and other characteristics. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2019, the number of direct care health workers in the United States per 10,000 individuals decreased slightly from 135.81 in 2010 to 133.78 in 2019. Personal care aides made up 42.1% of the direct care health workforce in 2019, followed by nursing assistants (39.5%) and home health aides (16.3%). In 2019, the number of direct care health workers who were not U.S. citizens accounted for roughly 10% of all workers in each year. The relative percentage of direct care health workers that were not a citizen of the United States was highest among home health aides (16.3%). Among workers born outside of the United States, the majority were from Latin America, followed by Asia. CONCLUSION: From 2010 to 2019, there was little growth in the direct care health workforce despite growing demand for direct care health workers. In the midst of the current and projected shortage of direct care health workers-particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, longer-term solutions to improve retention of direct care health workers and increase the supply of direct care health workers may be needed.

Projected US Urology Workforce per Capita, 2020-2060.

Importance: Projections to 2035 have demonstrated concern regarding a worsening urology workforce shortage. Objective: To project the size and demographic characteristics of the urology workforce per capita into 2060 and to anticipate the timing and degree of the impending urology workforce shortage. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cross-sectional study used the 2019 American Urological Association Annual Census data and the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education's Data Resource Book from 2007 to 2018. The cohort included practicing urologists in 2019. US Census data were used to approximate the projected US population. Data analysis was performed from June 2020 to March 2021. Exposures: Continued growth stock and flow model of 13.8% and stagnant growth model of 0% increase of the incoming urology workforce with cohort projection per projected US population. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was urology workforce projection per the population aged 65 years and older. Urology workforce projections per capita and demographic characteristics of the urology workforce up to 2060 were calculated under guided assumptions with 2 stock and flow models. Results: In 2019, there were 13 044 urologists (11 758 men [90.1.%]; 1286 women [9.9%]; median age range, 55-59 years), with 3.99 urologists per 100 000 persons and 311 new urologists entering the workforce. In a continued growth model, 2030 will have the lowest number of urologists per capita of 3.3 urologists per 100 000 persons, and recovery to baseline will occur by 2050. There are 23.8 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older in 2020, which decreases to 15.8 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older in 2035 and never recovers to its baseline level by 2060. In a stagnant growth model, there will be a continued decrease of urologists per capita to 3.1 urologists per 100 000 persons by 2060. There is a continued decrease in per capita urologists at each time point, with 13.1 urologists per 100 000 persons aged 65 years and older by 2060. Conclusions and Relevance: With the impending urology workforce shortage, there will be an exaggerated shortage of total urologists per persons aged 65 years and older in both models. This projection highlights the need for structural changes and advocacy to maximize the available urology workforce.

Relationship between the presence of dedicated doctors in rapid response systems and patient outcome: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Rapid response systems (RRSs) improve patients' safety, but the role of dedicated doctors within these systems remains controversial. We aimed to evaluate patient survival rates and differences in types of interventions performed depending on the presence of dedicated doctors in the RRS. METHODS: Patients managed by the RRSs of 9 centers in South Korea from January 1, 2016, through December 31, 2017, were included retrospectively. We used propensity score-matched analysis to balance patients according to the presence of dedicated doctors in the RRS. The primary outcome was in-hospital survival. The secondary outcomes were the incidence of interventions performed. A sensitivity analysis was performed with the subgroup of patients diagnosed with sepsis or septic shock. RESULTS: After propensity score matching, 2981 patients were included per group according to the presence of dedicated doctors in the RRS. The presence of the dedicated doctors was not associated with patients' overall likelihood of survival (hazard ratio for death 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93‒1.20). Interventions, such as arterial line insertion (odds ratio [OR] 25.33, 95% CI 15.12‒42.44) and kidney replacement therapy (OR 10.77, 95% CI 6.10‒19.01), were more commonly performed for patients detected using RRS with dedicated doctors. The presence of dedicated doctors in the RRS was associated with better survival of patients with sepsis or septic shock (hazard ratio for death 0.62, 95% CI 0.39‒0.98) and lower intensive care unit admission rates (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.37‒0.75). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of dedicated doctors within the RRS was not associated with better survival in the overall population but with better survival and lower intensive care unit admission rates for patients with sepsis or septic shock.

Women doctors in female urology: current status and implications for future workforce.

OBJECTIVE: To objectively determine the percentage of female trainees and consultants who are interested in their career being focussed on female urology (FU) in order to facilitate the improved planning for the future of this sub-specialty. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: This was an international cross-sectional study spanning 1 year, from December 2018 to December 2019. An anonymous, voluntary survey was generated using the online survey generator Survey monkey® . The survey was sent to urology consultants and trainees who were female from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. RESULTS: The total response rate to the survey was 61%. Up to 50% of female consultants and trainees selected a career in FU due to their gender, but up to 75% of respondents were also interested in FU of their own accord. Common concerns held by a majority of respondents included both the medical community's and the public's lack of awareness of FU as a component of urological expertise. Despite these concerns, most of the trainees were not concerned regarding their future work opportunities in FU, and many had intentions to pursue a fellowship in FU. CONCLUSION: Female urology is an increasingly popular sub-specialisation of urology, given the steady increase in the intake of female trainees. Similar trends were identified internationally. Urology training in this area will need to continue to increase the community's and the primary health care referrer's awareness in order to ensure the continued success and growth of the sub-specialty.