Biodiversity monitoring for a just planetary future.

Data that influence policy and major investment decisions risk entrenching social and political inequities.

Prediction of sea ice area based on the CEEMDAN-SO-BiLSTM model.

This article proposes a combined prediction model based on a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural network optimized by the snake optimizer (SO) under complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise. First, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) was used to decompose the sea ice area time series data into a series of eigenmodes and perform noise reduction to enhance the stationarity and smoothness of the time series. Second, this article used a bidirectional long short-term memory neural network optimized by the snake optimizer to fully exploit the characteristics of each eigenmode of the time series to achieve the prediction of each. Finally, the predicted values of each mode are superimposed and reconstructed as the final prediction values. Our model achieves a good score of RMSE: 1.047, MAE: 0.815, and SMAPE: 3.938 on the test set.

Combining ALS and UAV to derive the height of \textit{Araucaria angustifolia.

Quantitative data obtained from native forests is costly and time-consuming. Thus, alternative measurement methods need to be developed to provide reliable information, especially in Atlantic Rain Forests. In this study we evaluated the hypothesis that the combination of an Airborne Laser Scanner (ALS) and an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) can provide accurate quantitative information on tree height, volume, and aboveground biomass of the Araucaria angustifolia species. The study was carried out in Atlantic Rain forest fragments in southern Brazil. We tested and evaluated 3 digital canopy height model (CHM) scenarios: 1) CHM derived from ALS models; 2) CHM derived from UAV models; and 3) CHM from a combined ALS digital terrain model and UAV digital surface model. The height value at each tree coordinate was extracted from the pixel in the three evaluated scenarios and compared with the field measured values. ALS and UAV+ALS obtained RMSE% of 6.38 and 12.82 for height estimates, while UAV was 49.91%. Volume and aboveground biomass predictions are more accurate by ALS and UAV+ALS, while the UAV produced biased estimates. Since the ALS is currently used, periodic monitoring can be carried out by a combination of active (ALS) and passive (UAV) sensors.

National responsibility for ecological breakdown: a fair-shares assessment of resource use, 1970-2017.

BACKGROUND: Human impacts on earth-system processes are overshooting several planetary boundaries, driving a crisis of ecological breakdown. This crisis is being caused in large part by global resource extraction, which has increased dramatically over the past half century. We propose a novel method for quantifying national responsibility for ecological breakdown by assessing nations' cumulative material use in excess of equitable and sustainable boundaries. METHODS: For this analysis, we derived national fair shares of a sustainable resource corridor. These fair shares were then subtracted from countries' actual resource use to determine the extent to which each country has overshot its fair share over the period 1970-2017. Through this approach, each country's share of responsibility for global excess resource use was calculated. FINDINGS: High-income nations are responsible for 74% of global excess material use, driven primarily by the USA (27%) and the EU-28 high-income countries (25%). China is responsible for 15% of global excess material use, and the rest of the Global South (ie, the low-income and middle-income countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia) is responsible for only 8%. Overshoot in higher-income nations is driven disproportionately by the use of abiotic materials, whereas in lower-income nations it is driven disproportionately by the use of biomass. INTERPRETATION: These results show that high-income nations are the primary drivers of global ecological breakdown and they need to urgently reduce their resource use to fair and sustainable levels. Achieving sufficient reductions will likely require high-income nations to adopt transformative post-growth and degrowth approaches. FUNDING: None.

Atmospheric dryness reduces photosynthesis along a large range of soil water deficits.

Both low soil water content (SWC) and high atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) can negatively affect terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). The sensitivity of GPP to soil versus atmospheric dryness is difficult to disentangle, however, because of their covariation. Using global eddy-covariance observations, here we show that a decrease in SWC is not universally associated with GPP reduction. GPP increases in response to decreasing SWC when SWC is high and decreases only when SWC is below a threshold. By contrast, the sensitivity of GPP to an increase of VPD is always negative across the full SWC range. We further find canopy conductance decreases with increasing VPD (irrespective of SWC), and with decreasing SWC on drier soils. Maximum photosynthetic assimilation rate has negative sensitivity to VPD, and a positive sensitivity to decreasing SWC when SWC is high. Earth System Models underestimate the negative effect of VPD and the positive effect of SWC on GPP such that they should underestimate the GPP reduction due to increasing VPD in future climates.

The role of urban trees in reducing land surface temperatures in European cities.

Urban trees influence temperatures in cities. However, their effectiveness at mitigating urban heat in different climatic contexts and in comparison to treeless urban green spaces has not yet been sufficiently explored. Here, we use high-resolution satellite land surface temperatures (LSTs) and land-cover data from 293 European cities to infer the potential of urban trees to reduce LSTs. We show that urban trees exhibit lower temperatures than urban fabric across most European cities in summer and during hot extremes. Compared to continuous urban fabric, LSTs observed for urban trees are on average 0-4 K lower in Southern European regions and 8-12 K lower in Central Europe. Treeless urban green spaces are overall less effective in reducing LSTs, and their cooling effect is approximately 2-4 times lower than the cooling induced by urban trees. By revealing continental-scale patterns in the effect of trees and treeless green spaces on urban LST our results highlight the importance of considering and further investigating the climate-dependent effectiveness of heat mitigation measures in cities.

Evaluation of a COVID-19 Vaccine Campaign and SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Mortality Among Adults Aged 60 Years And Older in a Middle-Income Country.

Importance: Although there are reports of COVID-19 vaccine implementation in real-world populations, these come from high-income countries or from experience with messenger RNA technology vaccines. Data on outcomes of vaccine deployment in low- or middle-income countries are lacking. Objective: To assess whether the pragmatic application of the 3 COVID-19 vaccines available in Argentina, 2 of which have no reports of evaluation in real-world settings to date, were associated with a reduction in morbidity, all-cause mortality, and mortality due to COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used individual and ecological data to explore outcomes following vaccination with rAd26-rAd5, ChAdOx1, and BBIBP-CorV. To correct for differences in exposure times, results are shown using incidence density per 100 000 person-days from the start of the vaccination campaign (December 29, 2020) to the occurrence of an event or the end of follow-up (May 15, 2021). Participants included 663 602 people aged at least 60 years residing in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Statistical analysis was performed from June 1 to June 15, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, death from all causes, and death within 30 days of a diagnosis of COVID-19. Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate associations with all 3 outcomes. Results: Among 663 602 residents of the city of Buenos Aires included in the study, 540 792 (81.4%) were vaccinated with at least 1 dose, with 457 066 receiving 1 dose (mean [SD] age, 74.5 (8.9) years; 61.5% were female [n = 281 284]; 68.0% [n = 310 987] received the rAd26-rAd5 vaccine; 29.5% [n = 135 036] received ChAdOx1; 2.4% [n = 11 043] received BBIBP-CorV) and 83 726 receiving 2 doses (mean [SD] age, 73.4 [6.8] years; 63.5% were female [n = 53 204]). The incidence density of confirmed COVID-19 was 36.25 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 35.80-36.70 cases/100 000 person-days) among those who did not receive a vaccine, 19.13 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 18.63-19.62 cases/100 000 person-days) among those who received 1 dose, and 4.33 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 3.85-4.81 cases/100 000 person-days) among those who received 2 doses. All-cause mortality was 11.74 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 11.51-11.96 cases/100 000 person-days), 4.01 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 3.78-4.24 cases/100 000 person-days) and 0.40 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 0.26-0.55 cases/100 000 person-days). COVID-19-related-death rate was 2.31 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 2.19-2.42 cases/100 000 person-days), 0.59 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 0.50-0.67 cases/100 000 person-days), and 0.04 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 0.0-0.09 cases/100 000 person-days) among the same groups. A 2-dose vaccination schedule was associated with an 88.1% (95% CI, 86.8%-89.2%) reduction in documented infection, 96.6% (95% CI, 95.3%-97.5%) reduction in all-cause death, and 98.3% (95% CI, 95.3%-99.4%) reduction in COVID-19-related death. A single dose was associated with a 47.2% (95% CI, 44.2%-50.1%) reduction in documented infection, 65.8% (95% CI, 61.7%-69.5%) reduction in all-cause death, and 74.5% (95% CI, 66%-80.8%) reduction in COVID-19-related death. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that within the first 5 months after the start of the vaccination campaign, vaccination was associated with a significant reduction in COVID-19 infection as well as a reduction in mortality.

Persistence and accumulation of environmental DNA from an endangered dragonfly.

Detection of environmental DNA (eDNA) has become a commonly used surveillance method for threatened or invasive vertebrates in both aquatic and terrestrial environments. However, most studies in this field favor vertebrate target species. Environmental DNA protocols can be especially useful for endangered invertebrates such as the Hine's emerald dragonfly (Somatochlora hineana) where conservation efforts have been greatly hindered by training, time, overall costs, and environmental impacts associated with conducting surveys in the calcareous fens occupied by this species. An essential step in developing such a protocol is to evaluate the dynamics of eDNA concentration under controlled conditions. We used the quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) to examine seasonal shifts in the persistence and net-accumulation of eDNA from captive S. hineana larvae in experimental mesocosms at temperatures corresponding with their overwintering (5.0 °C) and active (16.0 °C) seasons. Environmental DNA persisted longer at 5.0 °C but accumulated more readily at 16.0 °C. Differences in the accumulation and persistence of eDNA reflect differences in the longevity of eDNA at different temperatures and seasonal differences in larval S. hineana behavior. This study highlights the importance of considering how seasonal changes in temperature influence not only the speed of eDNA degradation but also the target species' eDNA shedding rates.

Long-term trends in the body condition of parents and offspring of Tengmalm's owls under fluctuating food conditions and climate change.

Physical condition is important for the ability to resist various parasites and diseases as well as in escaping predators thus contributing to reproductive success, over-winter survival and possible declines in wildlife populations. However, in-depth research on trends in body condition is rare because decades-long datasets are not available for a majority of species. We analysed the long-term dataset of offspring covering 34 years, male parents (40 years) and female parents (42 years) to find out whether the decline of Tengmalm's owl population in western Finland is attributable to either decreased adult and/or juvenile body condition in interaction with changing weather conditions and density estimates of main foods. We found that body condition of parent owl males and females declined throughout the 40-year study period whereas the body condition of owlets at the fledging stage very slightly increased. The body condition of parent owls increased with augmenting depth of snow cover in late winter (January to March), and that of offspring improved with increasing precipitation in late spring (May to June). We conclude that the decreasing trend of body condition of parent owl males and females is important factor probably inducing reduced adult survival and reduced reproduction success thus contributing to the long-term decline of the Tengmalm's owl study population. The very slightly increasing trend of body condition of offspring is obviously not able to compensate the overall decline of Tengmalm's owl population, because the number of offspring in turn simultaneously decreased considerably in the long-term. The ongoing climate change appeared to work in opposite ways in this case because declining depth of snow cover will make the situation worse but increased precipitation will improve. We suggest that the main reasons for long-term decline of body condition of parent owls are interactive or additive effects of reduced food resources and increased overall predation risk due to habitat degradation (loss and fragmentation of mature and old-growth forests due to clear-felling) subsequently leading to decline of Tengmalm's owl study population.

Population genetic structure of raccoons as a consequence of multiple introductions and range expansion in the Boso Peninsula, Japan.

The raccoon (Procyon lotor) is an invasive carnivore that invaded various areas of the world. Although controlling feral raccoon populations is important to reduce serious threats to local ecosystems, raccoons are not under rigid population control in Europe and Japan. We examined the D-loop and nuclear microsatellite regions to identify spatially explicit and feasible management units for effective population control and further range expansion retardation. Through the identification of five mitochondrial DNA haplotypes and three nuclear genetic groups, we identified at least three independent introductions, range expansion, and subsequent genetic admixture in the Boso Peninsula. The management unit considered that two were appropriate because two populations have already genetic exchange. Furthermore, when taking management, we think that it is important to monitor DNA at the same time as capture measures for feasible management. This makes it possible to determine whether there is a invasion that has a significant impact on population growth from out of the unit, and enables adaptive management.

Risk Assessment for the Establishment of Vespa mandarinia (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in the Pacific Northwest, United States.

The recent introduction of the Asian giant hornet, Vespa mandarinia Smith, in the United States in late 2019 has raised concerns about its establishment in the Pacific Northwest and its potential deleterious effects on honey bees, Apis spp., and their pollination services in the region. Therefore, we conducted a risk assessment of the establishment of V. mandarinia in Washington, Oregon, Montana, and Idaho on a county-by-county basis. Our highly conservative tier-1 qualitative and semiquantitative risk assessment relied on the biological requirements and ecological relationships of V. mandarinia in the environments of the Pacific Northwest. Our risk characterization was based on climate and habitat suitability estimates for V. mandarinia queens to overwinter and colonize nests, density and distribution of apiaries, and locations of major human-mediated introduction pathways that may increase establishment of the hornet in the counties. Our results suggest that 32 counties in the region could be at low risk, 120 at medium risk, and 23 at high risk of establishment. Many of the western counties in the region were estimated to be at the highest risk of establishment mainly because of their suitable climate for queens to overwinter, dense forest biomass for nest colonization, and proximity to major port and freight hubs in the region. By design, our tier-1 risk assessment most likely overestimates the risk of establishment, but considering its negative effects, these counties should be prioritized in ongoing monitoring and eradication efforts of V. mandarinia.

Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.

Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation.

Landscape of stress: Tree mortality influences physiological stress and survival in a native mesocarnivore.

Climate change and anthropogenic modifications to the landscape can have both positive and negative effects on an animal. Linking landscape change to physiological stress and fitness of an animal is a fundamental tenet to be examined in applied ecology. Cortisol is a glucocorticoid hormone that can be used to indicate an animal's physiological stress response. In the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California, fishers (Pekania pennanti) are a threatened mesocarnivore that have been subjected to rapid landscape changes due to anthropogenic modifications and tree mortality related to a 4-year drought. We measured cortisol concentrations in the hair of 64 fishers (41 females, 23 males) captured and radio-collared in the Sierra National Forest, California. We addressed two main questions: (1) Is the physiological stress response of fishers influenced by anthropogenic factors, habitat type, canopy cover, and tree mortality due to drought in their home range? (2) Does the physiological stress response influence survival, reproduction, or body condition? We examined these factors within a fisher home range at 3 scales (30, 60, 95% isopleths). Using model selection, we found that tree mortality was the principle driver influencing stress levels among individual fishers with female and male fishers having increasing cortisol levels in home ranges with increasing tree mortality. Most importantly, we also found a link between physiological stress and demography where female fishers with low cortisol levels had the highest annual survival rate (0.94), whereas females with medium and high cortisol had lower annual survival rates, 0.78 and 0.81, respectively. We found no significant relationships between cortisol levels and body condition, male survival, or litter size. We concluded that tree mortality related to a 4-year drought has created a "landscape of stress" for this small, isolated fisher population.

Fin whale acoustic populations present in New Zealand waters: Description of song types, occurrence and seasonality using passive acoustic monitoring.

Southern fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) are known to migrate from the Antarctic to mid-latitudes during winter for breeding, but the occurrence and distribution of this species is not well known in the waters around New Zealand. The 'doublet' calls are one of the main calls emitted specifically by fin whales and repeated in a regular pattern, which make the acoustic detection of these calls relevant to detect the presence of fin whales. Using a signal processing algorithm to detect 'doublet' calls emitted by fin whales, we studied the occurrence, characteristics and seasonality of these 'doublet' calls in two regions around New Zealand; Cook Strait in 2016/2017 and offshore Gisborne in 2014/2015. The call detection procedure consisted of binarization of the spectrogram and a cross-correlation between the binarized spectrogram and a template of binarized 'doublet' calls spectrogram. A binarization threshold for the data spectrograms and a cross correlation threshold were then determined through multiple trials on a training dataset and a Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve. Fin whale 'doublet' calls occurred on the east side of New Zealand's Cook Strait during austral winter, specifically in June 2017 and offshore Gisborne in June-August 2014. No 'doublet' calls were detected on the west side of Cook Strait. The 'doublet' calls' Inter-Note Interval (INI) was similar in both datasets. However, there was a difference in alternation of the mean frequency for both HF components of 'doublet' calls in Cook Strait and Gisborne. As the song types were compared with those previously described in the literature, our findings suggest that some fin whales wintering in New Zealand waters may be part of a broader 'acoustic population' whose range extends west to southern Australia and south to Antarctica.

Comparing non-breeding distribution and behavior of red-legged kittiwakes from two geographically distant colonies.

Knowledge of non-breeding distributions is a crucial component to seabird conservation, as conditions during the non-breeding period can play an important role in regulating seabird populations. Specifically, if seabirds from different colonies share the same wintering grounds, conditions in that shared region could have a widespread impact on multiple breeding populations. Red-legged kittiwakes (Rissa brevirostris) are endemic to the Bering Sea and may be especially susceptible to effects of climate change due to a restricted breeding range, small population size, and specialized diet. To examine whether red-legged kittiwakes from different breeding colonies overlapped in winter distribution and activity patterns, we used geolocation loggers to simultaneously track individuals from the two largest red-legged kittiwake breeding colonies in Alaska (separated by over 1000 km) during two consecutive non-breeding periods. We found that non-breeding activity patterns were generally similar between birds originating from the two colonies, but birds employed different migratory strategies during the early winter. Kittiwakes from Buldir Island in the western Aleutian Islands left the colony in September and immediately headed west, spending October through December around the Sea of Okhotsk and the Kuril Islands. In contrast, birds from St. George Island in the Pribilof Islands remained in the eastern Bering Sea or around the eastern Aleutian Islands for a couple months before traveling farther west. During late winter however, from January through March, birds from both colonies converged south of Kamchatka and east of the Kuril Islands over the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench and in the Western Subarctic Gyre before returning to their respective colonies in the spring. This late winter overlap in distributions along the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench suggests the region is a winter hotspot for red-legged kittiwakes and highlights the importance of this region for the global kittiwake population.

Mortality and morbidity of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease associated with ambient environment in metropolitans in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated risks of mortality from and morbidity (emergency room visits (ERVs) and outpatient visits) of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) associated with extreme temperatures, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and ozone (O3) by sex, and age, from 2005 to 2016 in 6 metropolitan cities in Taiwan. METHODS: The distributed lag non-linear model was employed to assess age (0-18, 19-39, 40-64, and 65 years and above), sex-cause-specific deaths, ERVs, and outpatient visits associated with extreme high (99th percentile) and low (5th percentile) temperatures and PM2.5 and O3 concentrations at 90th percentile. Random-effects meta-analysis was adopted to investigate cause-specific pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the whole studied areas. RESULTS: Only the mortality risk of COPD in the elderly men was significantly associated with the extreme low temperatures. Exposure to the 90th percentile PM2.5 was associated with outpatient visits for asthma in 0-18 years old boys [RR = 1.15 (95% CI: 1.09-1.22)]. Meanwhile, significant elevation of ERVs of asthma for females aged 40-64 years was associated with exposure to ozone, with the highest RR of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.05-1.39). CONCLUSIONS: This study identified vulnerable subpopulations who were at risk to extreme events associated with ambient environments deserving further evaluation for adaptation.

The Impact of Roads on the Redistribution of Plants and Associated Arthropods in a Hyper-Arid Ecosystem.

The construction of vehicular roads likely affects the distribution of natural resources. Although the effects of roads on different ecosystem aspects have been extensively studied, studies in arid and, particularly, in hyper-arid ecosystems are scarce. In drylands, where water is the main limiting factor, the effect of roads on the redistribution of water may have strong subsequent effects on the ecosystem, especially when roads cross natural water flow paths. To fill this knowledge gap, we studied the effects of a road that runs across a slope on the distribution of plants and animals in a hyper-arid environment. Changes in shrub cover, below and above the road, were quantified by remote sensing and image classification, while plant-associated arthropods were vacuum-sampled from shrub canopies and from open (inter-shrub) areas. We found that the spatial distribution of shrubs, a vital resource facilitating many other organisms, was affected by the road, with an increase in the shrub cover immediately above the road and a decrease below it. Arthropod abundance generally followed shrub cover, but the exact pattern depended on the specific group sampled. While some arthropod groups (e.g., aphids, parasitic wasps and barklice) thrived under the disturbed conditions above the road, other arthropod groups (e.g., mites and true bugs) were less abundant in the disturbed patches. Our results highlight the strong effects of human-made structures on the distribution of flora and fauna in arid ecosystems.