Atmospheric dryness reduces photosynthesis along a large range of soil water deficits.

Both low soil water content (SWC) and high atmospheric dryness (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) can negatively affect terrestrial gross primary production (GPP). The sensitivity of GPP to soil versus atmospheric dryness is difficult to disentangle, however, because of their covariation. Using global eddy-covariance observations, here we show that a decrease in SWC is not universally associated with GPP reduction. GPP increases in response to decreasing SWC when SWC is high and decreases only when SWC is below a threshold. By contrast, the sensitivity of GPP to an increase of VPD is always negative across the full SWC range. We further find canopy conductance decreases with increasing VPD (irrespective of SWC), and with decreasing SWC on drier soils. Maximum photosynthetic assimilation rate has negative sensitivity to VPD, and a positive sensitivity to decreasing SWC when SWC is high. Earth System Models underestimate the negative effect of VPD and the positive effect of SWC on GPP such that they should underestimate the GPP reduction due to increasing VPD in future climates.

The role of urban trees in reducing land surface temperatures in European cities.

Urban trees influence temperatures in cities. However, their effectiveness at mitigating urban heat in different climatic contexts and in comparison to treeless urban green spaces has not yet been sufficiently explored. Here, we use high-resolution satellite land surface temperatures (LSTs) and land-cover data from 293 European cities to infer the potential of urban trees to reduce LSTs. We show that urban trees exhibit lower temperatures than urban fabric across most European cities in summer and during hot extremes. Compared to continuous urban fabric, LSTs observed for urban trees are on average 0-4 K lower in Southern European regions and 8-12 K lower in Central Europe. Treeless urban green spaces are overall less effective in reducing LSTs, and their cooling effect is approximately 2-4 times lower than the cooling induced by urban trees. By revealing continental-scale patterns in the effect of trees and treeless green spaces on urban LST our results highlight the importance of considering and further investigating the climate-dependent effectiveness of heat mitigation measures in cities.

Evaluation of a COVID-19 Vaccine Campaign and SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Mortality Among Adults Aged 60 Years And Older in a Middle-Income Country.

Importance: Although there are reports of COVID-19 vaccine implementation in real-world populations, these come from high-income countries or from experience with messenger RNA technology vaccines. Data on outcomes of vaccine deployment in low- or middle-income countries are lacking. Objective: To assess whether the pragmatic application of the 3 COVID-19 vaccines available in Argentina, 2 of which have no reports of evaluation in real-world settings to date, were associated with a reduction in morbidity, all-cause mortality, and mortality due to COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used individual and ecological data to explore outcomes following vaccination with rAd26-rAd5, ChAdOx1, and BBIBP-CorV. To correct for differences in exposure times, results are shown using incidence density per 100 000 person-days from the start of the vaccination campaign (December 29, 2020) to the occurrence of an event or the end of follow-up (May 15, 2021). Participants included 663 602 people aged at least 60 years residing in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Statistical analysis was performed from June 1 to June 15, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: Diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, death from all causes, and death within 30 days of a diagnosis of COVID-19. Poisson regression models were fitted to estimate associations with all 3 outcomes. Results: Among 663 602 residents of the city of Buenos Aires included in the study, 540 792 (81.4%) were vaccinated with at least 1 dose, with 457 066 receiving 1 dose (mean [SD] age, 74.5 (8.9) years; 61.5% were female [n = 281 284]; 68.0% [n = 310 987] received the rAd26-rAd5 vaccine; 29.5% [n = 135 036] received ChAdOx1; 2.4% [n = 11 043] received BBIBP-CorV) and 83 726 receiving 2 doses (mean [SD] age, 73.4 [6.8] years; 63.5% were female [n = 53 204]). The incidence density of confirmed COVID-19 was 36.25 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 35.80-36.70 cases/100 000 person-days) among those who did not receive a vaccine, 19.13 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 18.63-19.62 cases/100 000 person-days) among those who received 1 dose, and 4.33 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 3.85-4.81 cases/100 000 person-days) among those who received 2 doses. All-cause mortality was 11.74 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 11.51-11.96 cases/100 000 person-days), 4.01 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 3.78-4.24 cases/100 000 person-days) and 0.40 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 0.26-0.55 cases/100 000 person-days). COVID-19-related-death rate was 2.31 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 2.19-2.42 cases/100 000 person-days), 0.59 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 0.50-0.67 cases/100 000 person-days), and 0.04 cases/100 000 person-days (95% CI, 0.0-0.09 cases/100 000 person-days) among the same groups. A 2-dose vaccination schedule was associated with an 88.1% (95% CI, 86.8%-89.2%) reduction in documented infection, 96.6% (95% CI, 95.3%-97.5%) reduction in all-cause death, and 98.3% (95% CI, 95.3%-99.4%) reduction in COVID-19-related death. A single dose was associated with a 47.2% (95% CI, 44.2%-50.1%) reduction in documented infection, 65.8% (95% CI, 61.7%-69.5%) reduction in all-cause death, and 74.5% (95% CI, 66%-80.8%) reduction in COVID-19-related death. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that within the first 5 months after the start of the vaccination campaign, vaccination was associated with a significant reduction in COVID-19 infection as well as a reduction in mortality.

Persistence and accumulation of environmental DNA from an endangered dragonfly.

Detection of environmental DNA (eDNA) has become a commonly used surveillance method for threatened or invasive vertebrates in both aquatic and terrestrial environments. However, most studies in this field favor vertebrate target species. Environmental DNA protocols can be especially useful for endangered invertebrates such as the Hine's emerald dragonfly (Somatochlora hineana) where conservation efforts have been greatly hindered by training, time, overall costs, and environmental impacts associated with conducting surveys in the calcareous fens occupied by this species. An essential step in developing such a protocol is to evaluate the dynamics of eDNA concentration under controlled conditions. We used the quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) to examine seasonal shifts in the persistence and net-accumulation of eDNA from captive S. hineana larvae in experimental mesocosms at temperatures corresponding with their overwintering (5.0 °C) and active (16.0 °C) seasons. Environmental DNA persisted longer at 5.0 °C but accumulated more readily at 16.0 °C. Differences in the accumulation and persistence of eDNA reflect differences in the longevity of eDNA at different temperatures and seasonal differences in larval S. hineana behavior. This study highlights the importance of considering how seasonal changes in temperature influence not only the speed of eDNA degradation but also the target species' eDNA shedding rates.

Long-term trends in the body condition of parents and offspring of Tengmalm's owls under fluctuating food conditions and climate change.

Physical condition is important for the ability to resist various parasites and diseases as well as in escaping predators thus contributing to reproductive success, over-winter survival and possible declines in wildlife populations. However, in-depth research on trends in body condition is rare because decades-long datasets are not available for a majority of species. We analysed the long-term dataset of offspring covering 34 years, male parents (40 years) and female parents (42 years) to find out whether the decline of Tengmalm's owl population in western Finland is attributable to either decreased adult and/or juvenile body condition in interaction with changing weather conditions and density estimates of main foods. We found that body condition of parent owl males and females declined throughout the 40-year study period whereas the body condition of owlets at the fledging stage very slightly increased. The body condition of parent owls increased with augmenting depth of snow cover in late winter (January to March), and that of offspring improved with increasing precipitation in late spring (May to June). We conclude that the decreasing trend of body condition of parent owl males and females is important factor probably inducing reduced adult survival and reduced reproduction success thus contributing to the long-term decline of the Tengmalm's owl study population. The very slightly increasing trend of body condition of offspring is obviously not able to compensate the overall decline of Tengmalm's owl population, because the number of offspring in turn simultaneously decreased considerably in the long-term. The ongoing climate change appeared to work in opposite ways in this case because declining depth of snow cover will make the situation worse but increased precipitation will improve. We suggest that the main reasons for long-term decline of body condition of parent owls are interactive or additive effects of reduced food resources and increased overall predation risk due to habitat degradation (loss and fragmentation of mature and old-growth forests due to clear-felling) subsequently leading to decline of Tengmalm's owl study population.

Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.

Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation.

Landscape of stress: Tree mortality influences physiological stress and survival in a native mesocarnivore.

Climate change and anthropogenic modifications to the landscape can have both positive and negative effects on an animal. Linking landscape change to physiological stress and fitness of an animal is a fundamental tenet to be examined in applied ecology. Cortisol is a glucocorticoid hormone that can be used to indicate an animal's physiological stress response. In the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California, fishers (Pekania pennanti) are a threatened mesocarnivore that have been subjected to rapid landscape changes due to anthropogenic modifications and tree mortality related to a 4-year drought. We measured cortisol concentrations in the hair of 64 fishers (41 females, 23 males) captured and radio-collared in the Sierra National Forest, California. We addressed two main questions: (1) Is the physiological stress response of fishers influenced by anthropogenic factors, habitat type, canopy cover, and tree mortality due to drought in their home range? (2) Does the physiological stress response influence survival, reproduction, or body condition? We examined these factors within a fisher home range at 3 scales (30, 60, 95% isopleths). Using model selection, we found that tree mortality was the principle driver influencing stress levels among individual fishers with female and male fishers having increasing cortisol levels in home ranges with increasing tree mortality. Most importantly, we also found a link between physiological stress and demography where female fishers with low cortisol levels had the highest annual survival rate (0.94), whereas females with medium and high cortisol had lower annual survival rates, 0.78 and 0.81, respectively. We found no significant relationships between cortisol levels and body condition, male survival, or litter size. We concluded that tree mortality related to a 4-year drought has created a "landscape of stress" for this small, isolated fisher population.

Fin whale acoustic populations present in New Zealand waters: Description of song types, occurrence and seasonality using passive acoustic monitoring.

Southern fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) are known to migrate from the Antarctic to mid-latitudes during winter for breeding, but the occurrence and distribution of this species is not well known in the waters around New Zealand. The 'doublet' calls are one of the main calls emitted specifically by fin whales and repeated in a regular pattern, which make the acoustic detection of these calls relevant to detect the presence of fin whales. Using a signal processing algorithm to detect 'doublet' calls emitted by fin whales, we studied the occurrence, characteristics and seasonality of these 'doublet' calls in two regions around New Zealand; Cook Strait in 2016/2017 and offshore Gisborne in 2014/2015. The call detection procedure consisted of binarization of the spectrogram and a cross-correlation between the binarized spectrogram and a template of binarized 'doublet' calls spectrogram. A binarization threshold for the data spectrograms and a cross correlation threshold were then determined through multiple trials on a training dataset and a Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve. Fin whale 'doublet' calls occurred on the east side of New Zealand's Cook Strait during austral winter, specifically in June 2017 and offshore Gisborne in June-August 2014. No 'doublet' calls were detected on the west side of Cook Strait. The 'doublet' calls' Inter-Note Interval (INI) was similar in both datasets. However, there was a difference in alternation of the mean frequency for both HF components of 'doublet' calls in Cook Strait and Gisborne. As the song types were compared with those previously described in the literature, our findings suggest that some fin whales wintering in New Zealand waters may be part of a broader 'acoustic population' whose range extends west to southern Australia and south to Antarctica.

Comparing non-breeding distribution and behavior of red-legged kittiwakes from two geographically distant colonies.

Knowledge of non-breeding distributions is a crucial component to seabird conservation, as conditions during the non-breeding period can play an important role in regulating seabird populations. Specifically, if seabirds from different colonies share the same wintering grounds, conditions in that shared region could have a widespread impact on multiple breeding populations. Red-legged kittiwakes (Rissa brevirostris) are endemic to the Bering Sea and may be especially susceptible to effects of climate change due to a restricted breeding range, small population size, and specialized diet. To examine whether red-legged kittiwakes from different breeding colonies overlapped in winter distribution and activity patterns, we used geolocation loggers to simultaneously track individuals from the two largest red-legged kittiwake breeding colonies in Alaska (separated by over 1000 km) during two consecutive non-breeding periods. We found that non-breeding activity patterns were generally similar between birds originating from the two colonies, but birds employed different migratory strategies during the early winter. Kittiwakes from Buldir Island in the western Aleutian Islands left the colony in September and immediately headed west, spending October through December around the Sea of Okhotsk and the Kuril Islands. In contrast, birds from St. George Island in the Pribilof Islands remained in the eastern Bering Sea or around the eastern Aleutian Islands for a couple months before traveling farther west. During late winter however, from January through March, birds from both colonies converged south of Kamchatka and east of the Kuril Islands over the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench and in the Western Subarctic Gyre before returning to their respective colonies in the spring. This late winter overlap in distributions along the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench suggests the region is a winter hotspot for red-legged kittiwakes and highlights the importance of this region for the global kittiwake population.

Mortality and morbidity of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease associated with ambient environment in metropolitans in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated risks of mortality from and morbidity (emergency room visits (ERVs) and outpatient visits) of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) associated with extreme temperatures, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and ozone (O3) by sex, and age, from 2005 to 2016 in 6 metropolitan cities in Taiwan. METHODS: The distributed lag non-linear model was employed to assess age (0-18, 19-39, 40-64, and 65 years and above), sex-cause-specific deaths, ERVs, and outpatient visits associated with extreme high (99th percentile) and low (5th percentile) temperatures and PM2.5 and O3 concentrations at 90th percentile. Random-effects meta-analysis was adopted to investigate cause-specific pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the whole studied areas. RESULTS: Only the mortality risk of COPD in the elderly men was significantly associated with the extreme low temperatures. Exposure to the 90th percentile PM2.5 was associated with outpatient visits for asthma in 0-18 years old boys [RR = 1.15 (95% CI: 1.09-1.22)]. Meanwhile, significant elevation of ERVs of asthma for females aged 40-64 years was associated with exposure to ozone, with the highest RR of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.05-1.39). CONCLUSIONS: This study identified vulnerable subpopulations who were at risk to extreme events associated with ambient environments deserving further evaluation for adaptation.

Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution models.

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.

Spatiotemporal patterns of variability in the abundance and distribution of winter-spawned pelagic juvenile rockfish in the California Current.

Rockfish are an important component of West Coast fisheries and California Current food webs, and recruitment (cohort strength) for rockfish populations has long been characterized as highly variable for most studied populations. Research efforts and fisheries surveys have long sought to provide greater insights on both the environmental drivers, and the fisheries and ecosystem consequences, of this variability. Here, variability in the temporal and spatial abundance and distribution patterns of young-of-the-year (YOY) rockfishes are described based on midwater trawl surveys conducted throughout the coastal waters of California Current between 2001 and 2019. Results confirm that the abundance of winter-spawning rockfish taxa in particular is highly variable over space and time. Although there is considerable spatial coherence in these relative abundance patterns, there are many years in which abundance patterns are very heterogeneous over the scale of the California Current. Results also confirm that the high abundance levels of YOY rockfish observed during the 2014-2016 large marine heatwave were largely coastwide events. Species association patterns of pelagic YOY for over 20 rockfish taxa in space and time are also described. The overall results will help inform future fisheries-independent surveys, and will improve future indices of recruitment strength used to inform stock assessment models and marine ecosystem status reports.

Short-Term Exposure to Air Pollution and Epiglottitis: A Nested Case-Control Study.

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS: This study investigated the impacts of air pollution and meteorological factors on the occurrence of epiglottitis. STUDY DESIGN: A nested case-control study. METHODS: Participants ≥40 years old in the Korean National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening Cohort were analyzed. A total of 2,615 epiglottitis patients and 10,460 matched control participants were analyzed. The odds ratios (ORs) for epiglottitis associated with meteorological and air pollution factors, including sulfur dioxide (SO2 , ppb), nitrogen dioxide (NO2 , ppb), ozone (O3 , ppb), and carbon monoxide (CO, ppm), after 3, 7, 15, and 30 days of exposure were analyzed using conditional logistic regression adjusted for total cholesterol, blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, obesity, smoking, alcohol consumption, prior upper respiratory infection, tonsillectomy, immunocompromise, autoimmune disease, and the Charlson comorbidity index. RESULTS: The daily temperature range and NO2 exposure after 3 days were associated with increased rates of epiglottitis (OR = 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.05 for temperature range and OR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.14-2.77 for NO2 , respectively). These results were generally consistent at 7, 15, and 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: The temperature range and NO2 exposure for 3, 7, 15, and 30 days were positively related to the occurrence of adult epiglottitis. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3 Laryngoscope, 131:2483-2489, 2021.

Allergic rhinitis is associated with atmospheric SO2: Follow-up study of children from elementary schools in Ulsan, Korea.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine the association of allergic rhinitis with air pollutant concentrations using the follow-up data of elementary school children in Ulsan, Korea. METHODS: All students of four elementary schools in Ulsan, South Korea were surveyed at two-year intervals. The survey used data collected five times, over a nine-year period from June 2009 to April 2018. The questionnaire used in the survey was a modified version of the ISAAC (International society of asthma and allergy of children) questionnaire. A skin prick test (SPT) was performed with 24 standard antigens. To estimate the levels of exposure to outdoor air pollution, the concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter 10 µm or less in diameter (PM10) were used. As a dependent variable, a history of allergic rhinitis diagnosed by a doctor during the last 1-year was considered. Logistic regression analysis was used to select variables suitable for the statistical model. The selected variables were then used to assess their association with the dependent variable using the generalized estimation equation. RESULTS: Among environmental factors, SO2 was associated with a high risk and PM10 was associated with a low risk of allergic rhinitis. The risk of allergic rhinitis from living in a house built within the last year was high, and the risk from living in a multi-family house or apartment was higher than that from living in a segregated house. History of allergic diseases in the family was a high-risk factor for allergic rhinitis. There was a relationship between a history of bronchiolitis at less than 2 years of age and a high risk of allergic rhinitis. Boys were at a higher risk than girls. CONCLUSION: From the follow-up data of elementary school students in Ulsan, Korea, the concentration of SO2, which is an indicator of the degree of industrialization, was related to the prevalence of allergic rhinitis. Among all the risk factors, history of allergic disease in the parents was the most important factor, and the study reconfirmed the results of the previous studies.

Cross-scale interaction of host tree size and climatic water deficit governs bark beetle-induced tree mortality.

The recent Californian hot drought (2012-2016) precipitated unprecedented ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) mortality, largely attributable to the western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis; WPB). Broad-scale climate conditions can directly shape tree mortality patterns, but mortality rates respond non-linearly to climate when local-scale forest characteristics influence the behavior of tree-killing bark beetles (e.g., WPB). To test for these cross-scale interactions, we conduct aerial drone surveys at 32 sites along a gradient of climatic water deficit (CWD) spanning 350 km of latitude and 1000 m of elevation in WPB-impacted Sierra Nevada forests. We map, measure, and classify over 450,000 trees within 9 km2, validating measurements with coincident field plots. We find greater size, proportion, and density of ponderosa pine (the WPB host) increase host mortality rates, as does greater CWD. Critically, we find a CWD/host size interaction such that larger trees amplify host mortality rates in hot/dry sites. Management strategies for climate change adaptation should consider how bark beetle disturbances can depend on cross-scale interactions, which challenge our ability to predict and understand patterns of tree mortality.

Over half of western United States' most abundant tree species in decline.

Changing forest disturbance regimes and climate are driving accelerated tree mortality across temperate forests. However, it remains unknown if elevated mortality has induced decline of tree populations and the ecological, economic, and social benefits they provide. Here, we develop a standardized forest demographic index and use it to quantify trends in tree population dynamics over the last two decades in the western United States. The rate and pattern of change we observe across species and tree size-distributions is alarming and often undesirable. We observe significant population decline in a majority of species examined, show decline was particularly severe, albeit size-dependent, among subalpine tree species, and provide evidence of widespread shifts in the size-structure of montane forests. Our findings offer a stark warning of changing forest composition and structure across the western US, and suggest that sustained anthropogenic and natural stress will likely result in broad-scale transformation of temperate forests globally.

Repeatability and ranking of long-term enteric methane emissions measurement on dairy cows across diets and time using GreenFeed system in farm-conditions.

The aims of this work were to study on dairy farm conditions: i) the repeatability of long-term enteric CH4 emissions measurement from lactating dairy cows using GreenFeed (GF); ii) the ranking of dairy cows according to their CH4 emissions across diets. Forty-five Holstein lactating dairy cows were randomly assigned to 3 equivalent groups at the beginning of their lactation. The experiment was composed of 3 successive periods: i) pre-experimental period (weeks 1 to 5) in which all cows received a common diet; ii) a dietary treatment transition period (weeks 6 to 10); and iii) an experimental period (weeks 11 to 26) in which each group was fed a different diet. Experimental diets were formulated to generate more or less CH4 production: i) a diet based on ryegrass silage and concentrates, low in starch and lipid, designed to induce high CH4 emissions (CH4+); ii) a diet based on maize silage and concentrates, rich in starch, designed to induce intermediate CH4 emissions (CH4int); iii) a diet based on maize silage and concentrates, rich in starch and lipid, designed to induce low CH4 emissions (CH4-). Gas emissions were individually measured using GF systems. Repeatability of gas emissions, dry matter intake (DMI) and dairy performances measurements was calculated from data averaged over 1, 2, 4, and 8 weeks for each animal. Hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to rank individual animals according to their CH4 emissions. No significant differences were observed for daily CH4 emissions (g/day) among diets, because of lower DMI of CH4+ cows. When CH4 emissions were referred to units of DMI or milk, the differences among diets emerged as significant and persistent over the observed period of lactation. Repeatability values of gas emissions measurements were higher than 0.7 averaged over 8 weeks of measurement, but still higher than 0.6 for CH4 g/day, CO2 g/day, CH4 g/kg milk, and CH4/CO2 even averaging only 2 weeks of measurement. The repeatability of CH4 emissions measurement was systematically lower than those of DMI or dairy performance parameters, like milk and FPCM yield, irrespective of the averaged measurement period. The dairy cow ranking was not stable over time between all individuals or within any of the diets. In our experimental conditions, the GF performance in the long term can be considered reliable in differentiating dairy herds by their CH4 emissions according to diets with different methanogenic potential, but did not allow the ranking of individual dairy cows within a same diet. Our data highlight the importance of phenotyping animals across environment in which they will be expected to perform.

Association of Anopheles sinensis average abundance and climate factors: Use of mosquito surveillance data in Goyang, Korea.

Malaria is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Anopheline mosquitoes. In Korea, Plasmodium vivax malaria is an endemic disease and the main vector is Anopheles sinensis. Plasmodium vivax malaria is common in the northwestern part of South Korea, including in the city of Goyang in regions near the demilitarized zone. This study aimed to identify the best time-series model for predicting mosquito average abundance in Goyang, Korea. Mosquito data were obtained from the Mosquito Surveillance Program of the Goyang Ilsanseogu Public Health Center for the period 2008-2012. Black light traps were set up periodically in a park, a senior community center, and a village community center, public health center, drainage pumping station, cactus research center, restaurant near forest, in which many activities occur at night. In total, 9,512 female mosquitoes were collected at 12 permanent trapping sites during the mosquito season in the study period. Weekly An. sinensis average abundance was positively correlated with minimum grass temperature (r = 0.694, p < 0.001), precipitation (r = 0.326, p = 0.001). The results showed that seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) (1,0,0)(0,0,1)21 with minimum grass temperature variable at time lag0 weeks and the precipitation variable at time lag1 weeks provided that best model of mosquito average abundance. The multivariate model accounted for about 54.1% of the mosquito average abundance variation. Time-series analysis of mosquito average abundance and climate factors provided basic information for predicting the occurrence of malaria mosquitoes.

Effectiveness of the European Natura 2000 network to sustain a specialist wintering waterbird population in the face of climate change.

Analysis of coordinated Greater Scaup (Aythya marila) count data from the last 30 years showed a 38.1% decrease in wintering numbers in North-West Europe, from 309,000 during 1988-1991 to c.192,300 individuals during 2015-2018. Annual trends in wintering numbers differed throughout the range. Numbers decreased in the UK, Ireland, and in the Netherlands, while numbers were stable in Denmark. Germany, Poland, Sweden, and Estonia showed increasing numbers, suggesting a shift in the distribution of the species within its wintering grounds towards the east and north. Higher temperatures in northern and eastern areas were correlated with the range shift of the wintering distribution. Deaths from bycatch drowning of Scaup in fishing gear have significantly decreased in recent decades in the Netherlands, where currently the greatest threat is considered the deterioration of food resources. The increasing concentration of wintering Scaup in coastal Poland and Germany (where lack of effective implementation of conservation measures fail to protect the species from the impacts of bycatch and declining food quality) pose major threats to the entire population.

Analyzing long-term impacts of ungulate herbivory on forest-recruitment dynamics at community and species level contrasting tree densities versus maximum heights.

Herbivores are constitutive elements of most terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding effects of herbivory on ecosystem dynamics is thus a major, albeit challenging task in community ecology. Effects of mammals on plant communities are typically explored by comparing plant densities or diversity in exclosure experiments. This might over-estimate long-term herbivore effects at community levels as early life stage mortality is driven by a multitude of factors. Addressing these challenges, we established a set of 100 pairs of ungulate exclosures and unfenced control plots (25 m2) in mixed montane forests in the Alps in 1989 covering a forest area of 90 km2. Investigations ran until 2013. Analogous to the gap-maker-gap-filler approach, dynamically recording the height of the largest trees per tree species in paired plots with and without exclosures might allow for assessing herbivore impacts on those individuals with a high probability of attaining reproductive stages. We thus tested if recording maximum heights of regenerating trees would better reflect effects of ungulate herbivory on long-term dynamics of tree regeneration than recording of stem density, and if species dominance patterns would shift over time. For quantifying the effects of ungulate herbivory simultaneously at community and species level we used principle response curves (PRC). PRCs yielded traceable results both at community and species level. Trajectories of maximum heights yielded significant results contrary to trajectories of total stem density. Response patterns of tree species were not uniform over time: e.g., both Norway spruce and European larch switched in their response to fencing. Fencing explained about 3% of the variance of maximum tree heights after nine years but increased to about 10% after 24 years thus confirming the importance of long-term surveys. Maximum height dynamics of tree species, addressed in our study, can thus reflect local dominance of tree species via asymmetric plant competition. Such effects, both within and among forest patches, can accrue over time shaping forest structure and composition.