RESUMO
In the period between 5,300 and 4,900 calibrated years before present (cal. BP), populations across large parts of Europe underwent a period of demographic decline1,2. However, the cause of this so-called Neolithic decline is still debated. Some argue for an agricultural crisis resulting in the decline3, others for the spread of an early form of plague4. Here we use population-scale ancient genomics to infer ancestry, social structure and pathogen infection in 108 Scandinavian Neolithic individuals from eight megalithic graves and a stone cist. We find that the Neolithic plague was widespread, detected in at least 17% of the sampled population and across large geographical distances. We demonstrate that the disease spread within the Neolithic community in three distinct infection events within a period of around 120 years. Variant graph-based pan-genomics shows that the Neolithic plague genomes retained ancestral genomic variation present in Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, including virulence factors associated with disease outcomes. In addition, we reconstruct four multigeneration pedigrees, the largest of which consists of 38 individuals spanning six generations, showing a patrilineal social organization. Lastly, we document direct genomic evidence for Neolithic female exogamy in a woman buried in a different megalithic tomb than her brothers. Taken together, our findings provide a detailed reconstruction of plague spread within a large patrilineal kinship group and identify multiple plague infections in a population dated to the beginning of the Neolithic decline.
Assuntos
Fazendeiros , Genômica , Linhagem , Peste , Dinâmica Populacional , Yersinia pestis , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Cemitérios/história , Fazendeiros/história , Genoma Bacteriano/genética , História Antiga , Filogenia , Peste/epidemiologia , Peste/história , Peste/microbiologia , Peste/mortalidade , Países Escandinavos e Nórdicos/epidemiologia , Fatores de Tempo , Fatores de Virulência/genética , Yersinia pestis/genética , Yersinia pestis/isolamento & purificaçãoRESUMO
COVID-19 brought back to the attention of the scientific community that males are more susceptible to infectious diseases. What is clear for other infections-that sex and gender differences influence both risk of infection and mortality-is not yet fully elucidated for plague, particularly bubonic plague, although this knowledge can help find specific defences against a disease for which a vaccine is not yet available. To address this question, we analysed data on plague from hospitals in different parts of the world since the early eighteenth century, which provide demographic information on individual patients, diagnosis and course of the disease in the pre-antibiotic era. Assuming that the two sexes were equally represented, we observe a worldwide prevalence of male cases hospitalized at any age, a result which seems better explained by gender-biased (thus cultural) behaviours than biological sex-related factors. Conversely, case fatality rates differ among countries and geographic macro-areas, while globally, lethality appears slightly prevalent in young females and older adults (regardless of sex). Logistic regression models confirm that the main risk factor for bubonic plague death was the geographical location of the cases and being older than 50 years, whereas sex only showcased a slight trend.
Assuntos
Peste , Peste/história , Peste/epidemiologia , Peste/mortalidade , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Fatores Sexuais , Fatores Etários , História do Século XVIII , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , História do Século XX , Adulto , Fatores de Risco , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , História do Século XIXRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Justinian plague and its subsequent outbreaks were major events influencing Early Medieval Europe. One of the affected communities was the population of Saint-Doulchard in France, where plague victim burials were concentrated in a cemetery enclosure ditch. This study aimed to obtain more information about their life-histories using the tools of isotope analysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Dietary analysis using carbon and nitrogen isotopes was conducted on 97 individuals buried at Le Pressoir in Saint-Doulchard, with 36 of those originating from the enclosure ditch. This sample set includes all individuals analyzed for plague DNA in a previous study. Mobility analysis using strontium isotope analysis supplements the dietary study, with 47 analyzed humans. The results are supported by a reference sample set of 31 animal specimens for dietary analysis and 9 for mobility analysis. RESULTS: The dietary analysis results showed significantly different dietary behavior in individuals from the ditch burials, with better access to higher quality foods richer in animal protein. 87Sr/86Sr ratios are similar for both studied groups and indicate a shared or similar area of origin. DISCUSSION: The results suggest that the ditch burials contain an urban population from the nearby city of Bourges, which overall had a better diet than the rural population from Saint-Doulchard. It is implied that city's population might have been subjected to high mortality rates during the plague outbreak(s), which led to their interment in nearby rural cemeteries.
Assuntos
Isótopos de Carbono , Dieta , Isótopos de Nitrogênio , Peste , Peste/história , Peste/epidemiologia , Peste/mortalidade , Humanos , Isótopos de Carbono/análise , Feminino , História Medieval , Masculino , Isótopos de Nitrogênio/análise , França/epidemiologia , Adulto , Animais , Dieta/efeitos adversos , Dieta/história , Adolescente , Criança , Adulto Jovem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pré-Escolar , Cemitérios , Isótopos de Estrôncio/análise , LactenteRESUMO
Infectious diseases are among the strongest selective pressures driving human evolution1,2. This includes the single greatest mortality event in recorded history, the first outbreak of the second pandemic of plague, commonly called the Black Death, which was caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis3. This pandemic devastated Afro-Eurasia, killing up to 30-50% of the population4. To identify loci that may have been under selection during the Black Death, we characterized genetic variation around immune-related genes from 206 ancient DNA extracts, stemming from two different European populations before, during and after the Black Death. Immune loci are strongly enriched for highly differentiated sites relative to a set of non-immune loci, suggesting positive selection. We identify 245 variants that are highly differentiated within the London dataset, four of which were replicated in an independent cohort from Denmark, and represent the strongest candidates for positive selection. The selected allele for one of these variants, rs2549794, is associated with the production of a full-length (versus truncated) ERAP2 transcript, variation in cytokine response to Y. pestis and increased ability to control intracellular Y. pestis in macrophages. Finally, we show that protective variants overlap with alleles that are today associated with increased susceptibility to autoimmune diseases, providing empirical evidence for the role played by past pandemics in shaping present-day susceptibility to disease.
Assuntos
DNA Antigo , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Imunidade , Peste , Seleção Genética , Yersinia pestis , Humanos , Aminopeptidases/genética , Aminopeptidases/imunologia , Peste/genética , Peste/imunologia , Peste/microbiologia , Peste/mortalidade , Yersinia pestis/imunologia , Yersinia pestis/patogenicidade , Seleção Genética/imunologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente)/etnologia , Imunidade/genética , Conjuntos de Dados como Assunto , Londres/epidemiologia , Dinamarca/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Pneumonic plague, caused by Yersinia pestis, is an infectious disease with high mortality rates unless treated early with antibiotics. Currently, no FDA-approved vaccine against plague is available for human use. The capsular antigen F1, the low-calcium-response V antigen (LcrV), and the recombinant fusion protein (rF1-LcrV) of Y. pestis are leading subunit vaccine candidates under intense investigation; however, the inability of recombinant antigens to provide complete protection against pneumonic plague in animal models remains a significant concern. In this study, we compared immunoprotection against pneumonic plague provided by rF1, rV10 (a truncation of LcrV), and rF1-V10, and vaccinations delivered via aerosolized intratracheal (i.t.) inoculation or subcutaneous (s.c.) injection. We further considered three vaccine formulations: conventional liquid, dry powder produced by spray freeze drying, or dry powder reconstituted in PBS. The main findings are: (i) rF1-V10 immunization with any formulation via i.t. or s.c. routes conferred 100% protection against Y. pestis i.t. infection; (ii) rF1 or rV10 immunization using i.t. delivery provided significantly stronger protection than rF1 or rV10 immunization via s.c. delivery; and (iii) powder formulations of subunit vaccines induced immune responses and provided protection equivalent to those elicited by unprocessed liquid formulations of vaccines. Our data indicate that immunization with a powder formulation of rF1-V10 vaccines via an i.t. route may be a promising vaccination strategy for providing protective immunity against pneumonic plague.
Assuntos
Vacina contra a Peste/imunologia , Peste/prevenção & controle , Vacinas de Subunidades Antigênicas/imunologia , Yersinia pestis/imunologia , Animais , Anticorpos Antibacterianos/sangue , Anticorpos Antibacterianos/imunologia , Modelos Animais de Doenças , Composição de Medicamentos , Ensaio de Imunoadsorção Enzimática , Feminino , Imunidade nas Mucosas , Imunização/métodos , Camundongos , Camundongos Endogâmicos BALB C , Especificidade de Órgãos , Peste/imunologia , Peste/mortalidade , Vacina contra a Peste/administração & dosagem , Vacina contra a Peste/química , Proteínas Recombinantes/imunologia , Aerossóis e Gotículas Respiratórios , Mucosa Respiratória/imunologia , Vacinas de Subunidades Antigênicas/administração & dosagem , Vacinas de Subunidades Antigênicas/químicaRESUMO
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has harshly impacted Italy since its arrival in February 2020. In particular, provinces in Italy's Central and Northern macroregions have dealt with disproportionately greater case prevalence and mortality rates than those in the South. In this paper, we compare the morbidity and mortality dynamics of 16th and 17th century Plague outbreaks with those of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic across Italian regions. We also include data on infectious respiratory diseases which are presently endemic to Italy in order to analyze the regional differences between epidemic and endemic disease. A Growth Curve Analysis allowed for the estimation of time-related intercepts and slopes across the 16th and 17th centuries. Those statistical parameters were later incorporated as criterion variables in multiple General Linear Models. These statistical examinations determined that the Northern macroregion had a higher intercept than the Southern macroregion. This indicated that provinces located in Northern Italy had historically experienced higher plague mortalities than Southern polities. The analyses also revealed that this geographical differential in morbidity and mortality persists to this day, as the Northern macroregion has experienced a substantially higher COVID-19 mortality than the Southern macroregion. These results are consistent with previously published analyses. The only other stable and significant predictor of epidemic disease mortality was foreign urban potential, a measure of the degree of interconnectedness between 16th and 17th century Italian cities. Foreign urban potential was negatively associated with plague slope and positively associated with plague intercept, COVID-19 mortality, GDP per capita, and immigration per capita. Its substantial contribution in predicting both past and present outcomes provides a temporal continuity not seen in any other measure tested here. Overall, this study provides compelling evidence that temporally stable geographical factors, impacting both historical and current foreign pathogen spread above and beyond other hypothesized predictors, underlie the disproportionate impact COVID-19 has had throughout Central and Northern Italian provinces.
Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Doenças Endêmicas/história , Modelos Estatísticos , Pandemias , Peste/epidemiologia , COVID-19/história , COVID-19/mortalidade , Cidades , Emigrantes e Imigrantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Geografia , Produto Interno Bruto , História do Século XVI , História do Século XVII , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Peste/história , Peste/mortalidade , Prevalência , Análise de SobrevidaRESUMO
We have been here before. In 430 BCE, a plague struck Athens, killing as much as 25% of the population. In 1347 CE, the bubonic plague afflicted western Europe for 4 years, killing as much as 50% of the population. The plague of Athens led to a collapse of their religion, cultural norms and democracy. In contrast, the bubonic plague led eventually to the Renaissance, a growth of art, science and humanism. As we contend with the COVID-19 global pandemic, will we become Athens or Florence?
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias/história , Peste , Europa (Continente) , Grécia Antiga , História do Século XXI , História Antiga , História Medieval , Humanos , Peste/história , Peste/mortalidade , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
Marmots are an important reservoir of Yersinia pestis and a source of human plague in Mongolia. We present two fatal cases of plague after consumption of raw marmot organs and discuss the distribution of natural foci of Y. pestis in Mongolia.
Assuntos
Doenças Transmitidas por Alimentos/mortalidade , Peste/mortalidade , Alimentos Crus/microbiologia , Yersinia pestis/isolamento & purificação , Adulto , Animais , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Feminino , Doenças Transmitidas por Alimentos/microbiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Marmota/microbiologia , Mongólia , Peste/tratamento farmacológicoAssuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Equipamento de Proteção Individual/história , Papel do Médico/história , Peste/história , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Assistência Terminal/história , COVID-19 , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , História do Século XVII , Humanos , Peste/mortalidade , Peste/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Described as an indiscriminate killer by many chroniclers, the Black Death descended on London during the 14th century. To best understand the pattern of transmission among demographic groups, models should include multiple demographic and health covariates concurrently, something rarely done when examining Black Death, but implemented in this study to identify which demographic groups had a higher susceptibility. Female predisposition to the Black Death was also explored, focusing on whether social inequality added to vulnerability. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Three attritional cemeteries from the Wellcome Osteological Research Database were compared with the Black Death cemetery, East Smithfield. A Cox proportional hazards regression estimated hazards ratios of dying of the Black Death, using transition analysis ages-at-death as the time variable, and sex and frailty as covariates. Additionally, a binomial logistic regression generated odds ratios for age-at-death, sex, and frailty. RESULTS: The Cox model produced a significant hazards ratio for individuals deemed frail. Similarly, the logit model calculated significantly increased odds ratios for frail individuals, and decreased odds for individuals aged 65+. DISCUSSION: The older individuals were not undergoing growth during times of great stress in London pre-dating the Black Death epidemic, which may explain the decreased odds of contracting the Black Death. Further, although women dealt with social inequality, which partially led to the demographic puzzle of the Medieval "missing" women, women's susceptibility to infection by the Black Death was not increased. The phenomenon of the missing women may be due to a combination of factors, including infant and child mortality and preservation.
Assuntos
Peste , Sexismo/história , Mulheres/história , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Antropologia Física , Cemitérios/história , Feminino , História Medieval , Humanos , Londres/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Peste/economia , Peste/história , Peste/mortalidade , Adulto JovemRESUMO
OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: We analyze the influence of population movement on susceptibility to death and resilience during two epidemics occurring in Dijon soon after the Black Death. Using a specific program designed to propose links between entries in annual tax registers, we define tentative heads of household, the elapsed time since their first registration and their ties with other persons within the city. RESULTS: During the 1400 epidemic heads of household who were registered for 1-3 years die in large numbers, whereas during years without epidemics, their death rate is lower than that of heads of household who were registered longer. Recent registration is an epidemic vulnerability factor only in association with a low taxation status, which, when isolated, does not influence mortality. A lack of familial ties within Dijon is another vulnerability factor among the recently registered. This suggests that poor, recent emigrants are more affected by epidemic mortality. In contrast, the mortality of recently registered heads of household is indistinct during a later epidemic occurring after several years of major famine that may have selected the more resistant emigrants and/or excluded the more miserable of them from our analysis. In contrast to the first one, this second epidemic is followed by rapid demographic recovery. This latter recovery is fully explained by the contribution of poor, newly registered heads of household without ties in Dijon. CONCLUSION: Our results outline the interaction between population movement and low socioeconomic status on death susceptibility in historical plagues and show that poor recent emigrants may also be key players in the resilience of the population after an epidemic.
Assuntos
Demografia , Surtos de Doenças/história , Emigrantes e Imigrantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Peste/história , Características da Família , Feminino , França/epidemiologia , História do Século XV , História Medieval , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Peste/epidemiologia , Peste/mortalidade , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Taxa de Sobrevida , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Recurrent famine events during the medieval period might have contributed to excess mortality during the Black Death in London, England (c. 1349-1350). Previous research using conventional methods of age estimation revealed that adult males experienced lower risks of mortality under "normal" (attritional) but not famine mortality conditions following the Black Death. However, given the biases inherent in conventional age estimation methods, this study reassesses sex differences in risks of medieval adult famine mortality using ages estimated via transition analysis, which avoids some of the limitations of conventional age estimation methods. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We apply hazards analysis (the Gompertz model of adult mortality) to ages estimated for human skeletal remains (n = 1245) from London cemeteries dated to the pre-Black Death (c. 1000-1250 CE) and post-Black Death (c. 1350-1540 CE) periods. RESULTS: The results reveal no sex differences in risks of mortality before the Black Death but indicate that adult males faced lower risks of mortality after the Black Death during conditions of normal and famine mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These findings largely support those of our previous research, which suggested that selective mortality during the Black Death or sex-biased improvements in standard of living following the epidemic reduced risk of mortality for adult males in the post-Black Death period under normal mortality conditions. However, the use of transition analysis age estimates also revealed a reduced risk of mortality for post-Black Death adult males under famine conditions.
Assuntos
Fome Epidêmica/história , Mortalidade/história , Peste/história , Adulto , Fome Epidêmica/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , História do Século XV , História do Século XVI , História Medieval , Humanos , Londres/epidemiologia , Masculino , Peste/mortalidade , Fatores SexuaisRESUMO
In this study, a novel recombinant attenuated Yersinia pseudotuberculosis PB1+ strain (χ10069) engineered with ΔyopK ΔyopJ Δasd triple mutations was used to deliver a Y. pestis fusion protein, YopE amino acid 1 to 138-LcrV (YopENt138-LcrV), to Swiss Webster mice as a protective antigen against infections by yersiniae. χ10069 bacteria harboring the pYA5199 plasmid constitutively synthesized the YopENt138-LcrV fusion protein and secreted it via the type 3 secretion system (T3SS) at 37°C under calcium-deprived conditions. The attenuated strain χ10069(pYA5199) was manifested by the establishment of controlled infection in different tissues without developing conspicuous signs of disease in histopathological analysis of microtome sections. A single-dose oral immunization of χ10069(pYA5199) induced strong serum antibody titers (log10 mean value, 4.2), secretory IgA in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid from immunized mice, and Yersinia-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells producing high levels of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), gamma interferon (IFN-γ), and interleukin 2 (IL-2), as well as IL-17, in both lungs and spleens of immunized mice, conferring comprehensive Th1- and Th2-mediated immune responses and protection against bubonic and pneumonic plague challenges, with 80% and 90% survival, respectively. Mice immunized with χ10069(pYA5199) also exhibited complete protection against lethal oral infections by Yersinia enterocolitica WA and Y. pseudotuberculosis PB1+. These findings indicated that χ10069(pYA5199) as an oral vaccine induces protective immunity to prevent bubonic and pneumonic plague, as well as yersiniosis, in mice and would be a promising oral vaccine candidate for protection against plague and yersiniosis for human and veterinary applications.
Assuntos
Anticorpos Antibacterianos/biossíntese , Imunoglobulina A/biossíntese , Vacina contra a Peste/administração & dosagem , Peste/prevenção & controle , Proteínas Recombinantes de Fusão/administração & dosagem , Yersinia pestis/efeitos dos fármacos , Infecções por Yersinia pseudotuberculosis/prevenção & controle , Yersinia pseudotuberculosis/efeitos dos fármacos , Administração Oral , Animais , Antígenos de Bactérias/genética , Antígenos de Bactérias/imunologia , Proteínas da Membrana Bacteriana Externa/genética , Proteínas da Membrana Bacteriana Externa/imunologia , Linfócitos T CD4-Positivos/efeitos dos fármacos , Linfócitos T CD4-Positivos/imunologia , Linfócitos T CD4-Positivos/microbiologia , Linfócitos T CD8-Positivos/efeitos dos fármacos , Linfócitos T CD8-Positivos/imunologia , Linfócitos T CD8-Positivos/microbiologia , Proteção Cruzada , Feminino , Expressão Gênica , Humanos , Imunização , Interferon gama/genética , Interferon gama/imunologia , Interleucina-2/genética , Interleucina-2/imunologia , Pulmão/efeitos dos fármacos , Pulmão/imunologia , Pulmão/microbiologia , Masculino , Camundongos , Peste/imunologia , Peste/microbiologia , Peste/mortalidade , Vacina contra a Peste/biossíntese , Vacina contra a Peste/genética , Vacina contra a Peste/imunologia , Plasmídeos/química , Plasmídeos/metabolismo , Proteínas Citotóxicas Formadoras de Poros/genética , Proteínas Citotóxicas Formadoras de Poros/imunologia , Proteínas Recombinantes de Fusão/genética , Proteínas Recombinantes de Fusão/imunologia , Análise de Sobrevida , Fator de Necrose Tumoral alfa/genética , Fator de Necrose Tumoral alfa/imunologia , Vacinas Sintéticas , Yersinia pestis/imunologia , Yersinia pestis/patogenicidade , Yersinia pseudotuberculosis/imunologia , Yersinia pseudotuberculosis/patogenicidade , Infecções por Yersinia pseudotuberculosis/imunologia , Infecções por Yersinia pseudotuberculosis/microbiologia , Infecções por Yersinia pseudotuberculosis/mortalidadeRESUMO
Plague is a lethal zoonotic disease associated with rodents worldwide. In the western United States, plague outbreaks can decimate prairie dog (Cynomys spp.) colonies. However, it is unclear where the causative agent, Yersinia pestis, of this flea-borne disease is maintained between outbreaks, and what triggers plague-induced prairie dog die-offs. Less susceptible rodent hosts, such as mice, could serve to maintain the bacterium, transport infectious fleas across a colony, or introduce the pathogen to other colonies, possibly facilitating an outbreak. Here, we assess the potential role of two short-lived rodent species, North American deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and Northern grasshopper mice (Onychomys leucogaster) in plague dynamics on prairie dog colonies. We live-trapped short-lived rodents and collected their fleas on black-tailed (Cynomys ludovicianus, Montana and South Dakota), white-tailed (Cynomys leucurus, Utah and Wyoming), and Utah prairie dog colonies (Cynomys parvidens, Utah) annually, from 2013 to 2016. Plague outbreaks occurred on colonies of all three species. In all study areas, deer mouse abundance was high the year before plague-induced prairie dog die-offs, but mouse abundance per colony was not predictive of plague die-offs in prairie dogs. We did not detect Y. pestis DNA in mouse fleas during prairie dog die-offs, but in three cases we found it beforehand. On one white-tailed prairie dog colony, we detected Y. pestis positive fleas on one grasshopper mouse and several prairie dogs live-trapped 10 days later, months before visible declines and plague-confirmed mortality of prairie dogs. On one black-tailed prairie dog colony, we detected Y. pestis positive fleas on two deer mice 3 months before evidence of plague was detected in prairie dogs or their fleas and also well before a plague-induced die-off. These observations of plague positive fleas on mice could represent early spillover events of Y. pestis from prairie dogs or an unknown reservoir, or possible movement of infectious fleas by mice.
Assuntos
Peste/veterinária , Sciuridae/microbiologia , Sifonápteros/microbiologia , Yersinia pestis/isolamento & purificação , Animais , Arvicolinae/microbiologia , Arvicolinae/parasitologia , DNA Bacteriano , Surtos de Doenças , Infestações por Pulgas , Insetos Vetores/microbiologia , Peromyscus/microbiologia , Peromyscus/parasitologia , Peste/epidemiologia , Peste/mortalidade , Sciuridae/parasitologia , Estados UnidosRESUMO
Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework.
Assuntos
Peste/epidemiologia , Peste/mortalidade , Teorema de Bayes , DNA Bacteriano/genética , Humanos , Mortalidade Prematura , Pandemias , Filogenia , Risco , Yersinia pestis/genética , Yersinia pestis/patogenicidadeRESUMO
This paper develops the first survival analysis of a large-scale mortality crisis caused by plague. For the time-to-event analyses we used the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Our case study is the town of Nonantola during the 1630 plague, which was probably the worst to affect Italy since the Black Death. Individual risk of death did not depend on sex, grew with age (peaking at ages 40-60 and then declining), was not affected by socio-economic status, and was positively associated with household size. We discuss these findings in light of the historical-demographic and palaeo-demographic literature on medieval and early modern plagues. Our results are compatible with the debated idea that ancient plague was able to spread directly from human to human. Our methods could be replicated in other studies of European plagues to nuance and integrate the findings of recent palaeo-biological and palaeo-demographic research on plague.
Assuntos
Mortalidade/história , Peste/história , Peste/mortalidade , Análise de Sobrevida , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Feminino , História do Século XVII , Humanos , Itália , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, can spread through human populations by multiple transmission pathways. Today, most human plague cases are bubonic, caused by spillover of infected fleas from rodent epizootics, or pneumonic, caused by inhalation of infectious droplets. However, little is known about the historical spread of plague in Europe during the Second Pandemic (14-19th centuries), including the Black Death, which led to high mortality and recurrent epidemics for hundreds of years. Several studies have suggested that human ectoparasite vectors, such as human fleas (Pulex irritans) or body lice (Pediculus humanus humanus), caused the rapidly spreading epidemics. Here, we describe a compartmental model for plague transmission by a human ectoparasite vector. Using Bayesian inference, we found that this model fits mortality curves from nine outbreaks in Europe better than models for pneumonic or rodent transmission. Our results support that human ectoparasites were primary vectors for plague during the Second Pandemic, including the Black Death (1346-1353), ultimately challenging the assumption that plague in Europe was predominantly spread by rats.