Invited Commentary: Combining Information to Answer Epidemiologic Questions About a Target Population.

Epidemiologists are attempting to address research questions of increasing complexity by developing novel methods for combining information from diverse sources. Cole et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2023;192(3)467-474) provide 2 examples of the process of combining information to draw inferences about a population proportion. In this commentary, we consider combining information to learn about a target population as an epidemiologic activity and distinguish it from more conventional meta-analyses. We examine possible rationales for combining information and discuss broad methodological considerations, with an emphasis on study design, assumptions, and sources of uncertainty.

A review of place-related contextual factors in syndemics research.

This review investigates the extent to which a place-based approach has been used to conceptualize context, as well as the place-related contextual factors explored in studies that explicitly invoked a syndemic framework. The literature search focused on 29 peer-reviewed empirical syndemic studies. Only 11 studies used a place-based approach to define and measure contextual factors and the spatial context was denoted using administrative boundaries such as census tracts, counties, and countries. A narrow range of place-related contextual factors were explored and most of them were related to social and economic factors that were used to define a place. Methodological gaps like a paucity of multilevel studies and studies using a place-based approach to measure context were identified. Future syndemics research should leverage multidimensional geospatial approaches to decipher the role of place-related contextual factors in syndemic dynamics.

Caracterización epidemiológica, clínica y cefalométrica del brote anormal de los terceros molares / Epidemiological, clinical and cephalometric characterization of the abnormal eruption of third molars

Introducción: El brote de los terceros molares es un proceso que no está del todo explicado, pero durante su erupción puede provocar diferentes accidentes o complicaciones. Objetivo: Caracterizar el brote anormal de los terceros molares según variables epidemiológicas, clínicas y cefalométricas. Método: Se realizó un estudio observacional, descriptivo y transversal en la Clínica Estomatológica Provincial Docente «Mártires del Moncada», de Santiago de Cuba, desde noviembre de 2019 a febrero de 2020. La población estuvo conformada por jóvenes de 18 a 25 años de edad; la muestra fue seleccionada por muestreo aleatorio simple. Se tuvieron en cuenta las siguientes variables: sexo, color de la piel, brote anormal y otras variables cefalométricas. Resultados: De los 84 dientes incluidos en el estudio, se detectaron 66 terceros molares con brote anormal (78,6 %). El promedio asociado al brote de estos molares de espacio óseo superior insuficiente fue igual para los superiores con medias de 25,9 mm; el de angulación inadecuada resultó obtuso en el superior izquierdo con 128,3º y agudo en los inferiores derechos con 58,8º; asimismo el mayor diámetro mesiodistal inadecuado fue el de los inferiores derechos con 15,7 mm. Conclusiones: El brote anormal de los terceros molares se caracteriza por afectar, de forma importante, a féminas y a individuos mestizos. Su observación se singulariza, fundamentalmente, en molares inferiores con espacios óseos posteriores reducidos, mesioangulaciones y diámetros mesiodistales considerables.

Introduction: eruption of the third molars is a process that is not fully explained in the literature; however it is known that their eruption can cause different complications. Objective: to characterize the abnormal eruption of third molars according to epidemiological, clinical and cephalometric variables. Methods: an observational, descriptive and cross-sectional study was carried out at "Mártires del Moncada" Provincial Teaching Dental Clinic, in Santiago de Cuba, from November 2019 to February 2020. The population consisted of young people aged 18-25 years; the sample was selected by simple random sampling. Gender, skin color, abnormal eruption and other cephalometric variables were taken into account. Results: sixty-six third molars with abnormal eruption were detected from the 84 teeth included in the study (78.6%). The average associated with the eruption of these molars with insufficient upper bone space was the same for the upper ones with means of 25.9 mm; the average with inadequate angulation was obtuse in the upper left third molar with 128.3º and the acute one in the lower right third molars with 58.8º; the lower right third molars likewise had the largest inadequate mesiodistal diameter with 15.7 mm. Conclusions: the abnormal eruption of third molars is characterized by significantly affecting females and mixed-race individuals. Its observation is singled out, fundamentally, in lower molars with reduced posterior bone spaces, mesioangulations and considerable mesiodistal diameters.

Algorithm for sample availability prediction in a hospital-based epidemiological study spreadsheet-based sample availability calculator.

Looking at the population's behavior by taking samples is quite uncertain due to its big and dynamic structure and unimaginable variability. All quantitative sampling approaches aim to draw a representative sample from the population so that the results of the studying samples can then be generalized back to the population. The probability of detecting a true effect of a study largely depends on the sample size and if taking small samples will give lowers statistical power, higher risk of missing a meaningful underlying difference. The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis i.e., finding significant difference using the sample largely depends upon the statistical power. There are a lot of online tools used for calculating the sample size, but none tell us about the availability of samples from single site in a fixed span. This study aims to provide an efficient calculation method for the availability of samples during a specific period of a research study which is an important question to be answered during the research study design. So, we have designed a spreadsheet-based sample availability calculator tool implemented in MS-Excel 2007.

Reasons for Suicide During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan.

Importance: Although the suicide rate in Japan increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, the reasons for suicide have yet to be comprehensively investigated. Objective: To assess which reasons for suicide had rates that exceeded the expected number of suicide deaths for that reason during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This national, population-based cross-sectional study of data on suicides gathered by the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare from January 2020 to May 2021 used a times-series analysis on the numbers of reason-identified suicides. Data of decedents were recorded by the National Police Agency and compiled by the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare. Exposure: For category analysis, we compared data from January 2020 to May 2021 with data from December 2014 to June 2020. For subcategory analysis, data from January 2020 to May 2021 were compared with data from January 2019 to June 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the monthly excess suicide rate, ie, the difference between the observed number of monthly suicide deaths and the upper bound of the 1-sided 95% CI for the expected number of suicide deaths in that month. Reasons for suicide were categorized into family, health, economy, work, relationships, school, and others, which were further divided into 52 subcategories. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to estimate the expected number of monthly suicides. Individual regression models were used for each of the 7 categories, 52 subcategories, men, women, and both genders. Results: From the 29 938 suicides (9984 [33.3%] women; 1093 [3.7%] aged <20 years; 3147 [10.5%] aged >80 years), there were 21 027 reason-identified suicides (7415 [35.3%] women). For both genders, all categories indicated monthly excess suicide rates, except for school in men. October 2020 had the highest excess suicide rates for all cases (observed, 1577; upper bound of 95% CI for expected number of suicides, 1254; 25.8% greater). In men, the highest monthly excess suicide rate was 24.3% for the other category in August 2020 (observed, 87; upper bound of 95% CI for expected number, 70); in women, it was 85.7% for school in August 2020 (observed, 26; upper bound of 95% CI for expected number, 14). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, observed suicides corresponding to all 7 categories of reasons exceeded the monthly estimates (based on data from before or during the COVID-19 pandemic), except for school-related reasons in men. This study can be used as a basis for developing intervention programs for suicide prevention.

Cold Weather and Cardiac Arrest in 4 Seasons: Helsinki, Finland, 1997‒2018.

Objectives. To test the a priori hypothesis that out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is associated with cold weather during all seasons, not only during the winter. Methods. We applied a case‒crossover design to all cases of nontraumatic OHCA in Helsinki, Finland, over 22 years: 1997 to 2018. We statistically defined cold weather for each case and season, and applied conditional logistic regression with 2 complementary models a priori according to the season of death. Results. There was an association between cold weather and OHCA during all seasons, not only during the winter. Each additional cold day increased the odds of OHCA by 7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4%, 10%), with similar strength of association during the autumn (6%; 95% CI = 0%, 12%), winter (6%; 95% CI = 1%, 12%), spring (8%; 95% CI = 2%, 14%), and summer (7%; 95% CI = 0%, 15%). Conclusions. Cold weather, defined according to season, increased the odds of OHCA during all seasons in similar quantity. Public Health Implications. Early warning systems and cold weather plans focus implicitly on the winter season. This may lead to incomplete measures in reducing excess mortality related to cold weather. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):107-115. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306549).

Epidemiological Research Advances in Vascular Calcification in Diabetes.

Vascular calcification is the transformation of arterial wall mesenchymal cells, particularly smooth muscle cells (SMCs), into osteoblast phenotypes by various pathological factors. Additionally, vascular transformation mediates the abnormal deposition of calcium salts in the vascular wall, such as intimal and media calcification. Various pathological types have been described, such as calcification and valve calcification. The incidence of vascular calcification in patients with diabetes is much higher than that in nondiabetic patients, representing a critical cause of cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes. Because basic research on the clinical transformation of vascular calcification has yet to be conducted, this study systematically expounds on the risk factors for vascular calcification, vascular bed differences, sex differences, ethnic differences, diagnosis, severity assessments, and treatments to facilitate the identification of a new entry point for basic research and subsequent clinical transformation regarding vascular calcification and corresponding clinical evaluation strategies.

Are neighbourhoods of tuberculosis cases a high-risk population for active intervention? A protocol for tuberculosis active case finding.

BACKGROUND: Indonesia has the second largest tuberculosis (TB) burden globally. Attempts to scale-up TB control efforts have focused on TB households. However, in most high burden settings, considerable Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission occurs outside TB households. A better understanding of transmission dynamics in an urban setting in Indonesia will be crucial for the TB Control Program in scaling up efforts towards elimination of TB in a more targeted way. Therefore, the study aims to measure TB prevalence and incidence in household contacts and neighbourhoods in the vicinity of known TB cases and to assess their genomic and epidemiological relatedness. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Individuals (~1000) living in the same household as a case diagnosed with pulmonary TB (n = 250) or in a neighbouring household (~4500 individuals) will be screened for TB symptoms and by chest x-ray. Two sputum samples will be collected for microbiological analysis from anyone with a productive cough. Any person found to have TB will be treated by the National TB Control Program. All those with no evidence of TB disease will have a repeat screen at 12 months. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and social network analysis (SNA) will be conducted on Index cases and contacts diagnosed with TB.

An integrative review of method types used in the study of medication error during anaesthesia: implications for estimating incidence.

To meet the WHO vision of reducing medication errors by 50%, it is essential to know the current error rate. We undertook an integrative review of the literature, using a systematic search strategy. We included studies that provided an estimate of error rate (i.e. both numerator and denominator data), regardless of type of study (e.g. RCT or observational study). Under each method type, we categorised the error rate by type, by classification used by the primary studies (e.g. wrong drug, wrong dose, wrong time), and then pooled numerator and denominator data across studies to obtain an aggregate error rate for each method type. We included a total of 30 studies in this review. Of these, two studies were national audit projects containing relevant data, and for 28 studies we identified five discrete method types: retrospective recall (6), self-reporting (7), observational (5), large databases (7), and observing for drug calculation errors (3). Of these 28 studies we included 22 for a numerical analysis and used six to inform a narrative review. Drug error is recalled by ~1 in 5 anaesthetists as something that happened over their career; in self-reports there is an admitted rate of ~1 in 200 anaesthetics. In observed practice, error is seen in almost every anaesthetic. In large databases, drug error constitutes ~10% of anaesthesia incidents reported. Wrong drug or dose form the most common type of error across all five study method types (especially dosing error in paediatric studies). We conclude that medication error is common in anaesthetic practice, although we were uncertain of the precise frequency or extent of harm. Studies concerning medication error are very heterogenous, and we recommend consideration of standardised reporting as in other research domains.

Design, implementation and initial findings of COVID-19 research in the Rotterdam Study: leveraging existing infrastructure for population-based investigations on an emerging disease.

The Rotterdam Study is an ongoing prospective, population-based cohort study that started in 1989 in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The study aims to unravel etiology, preclinical course, natural history and potential targets for intervention for chronic diseases in mid-life and late-life. It focuses on cardiovascular, endocrine, hepatic, neurological, ophthalmic, psychiatric, dermatological, otolaryngological, locomotor, and respiratory diseases. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a substudy was designed and embedded within the Rotterdam Study. On the 20th of April, 2020, all living non-institutionalized participants of the Rotterdam Study (n = 8732) were invited to participate in this sub-study by filling out a series of questionnaires administered over a period of 8 months. These questionnaires included questions on COVID-19 related symptoms and risk factors, characterization of lifestyle and mental health changes, and determination of health care seeking and health care avoiding behavior during the pandemic. As of May 2021, the questionnaire had been sent out repeatedly for a total of six times with an overall response rate of 76%. This article provides an overview of the rationale, design, and implementation of this sub-study nested within the Rotterdam Study. Finally, initial results on participant characteristics and prevalence of COVID-19 in this community-dwelling population are shown.

Where next for the design, delivery, and evaluation of community-based physical activity prescription? Emerging lessons from the United Kingdom.

Despite widespread use, community-based physical activity prescription is controversial. Data limitations have resulted in a lack of clarity about what works, under what circumstances, and for whom, reflected in conservative policy recommendations. In this commentary we challenge a predominantly negative discourse, using contemporary research to highlight promising findings and "lessons learnt" for design, delivery, and evaluation. In doing so, we argue for the importance of a more nuanced approach to future commissioning and evaluation. Novelty: Amalgamating learning from multiple research teams to create recommendations for advancing physical activity prescription.

Assessing knowledge, attitudes, and practices towards causal directed acyclic graphs: a qualitative research project.

Causal graphs provide a key tool for optimizing the validity of causal effect estimates. Although a large literature exists on the mathematical theory underlying the use of causal graphs, less literature exists to aid applied researchers in understanding how best to develop and use causal graphs in their research projects. We sought to understand why researchers do or do not regularly use DAGs by surveying practicing epidemiologists and medical researchers on their knowledge, level of interest, attitudes, and practices towards the use of causal graphs in applied epidemiology and health research. We used Twitter and the Society for Epidemiologic Research to disseminate the survey. Overall, a majority of participants reported being comfortable with using causal graphs and reported using them 'sometimes', 'often', or 'always' in their research. Having received training appeared to improve comprehension of the assumptions displayed in causal graphs. Many of the respondents who did not use causal graphs reported lack of knowledge as a barrier to using DAGs in their research. Causal graphs are of interest to epidemiologists and medical researchers, but there are several barriers to their uptake. Additional training and clearer guidance are needed. In addition, methodological developments regarding visualization of effect measure modification and interaction on causal graphs is needed.

Global epidemiology of acromegaly: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To date, no systematic reviews and meta-analysis on the global epidemiology of acromegaly are available in the literature. The aims of this study are to provide a systematic review and a meta-analysis of the global epidemiology of acromegaly and to evaluate the quality of study reporting for the identified studies. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library databases were searched for studies assessing the epidemiology of acromegaly from inception until 31 January 2020. We included original observational studies written in English, reporting acromegaly prevalence and/or incidence for a well-defined geographic area. Two reviewers independently extracted data and performed quality assessments. Prevalence and incidence pooled estimates were derived by performing a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 32 studies were included in the systematic review, and 22 of them were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of acromegaly was 5.9 (95% CI: 4.4-7.9) per 100 000 persons, while the incidence rate (IR) was 0.38 (95% CI: 0.32-0.44) cases per 100 000 person-years. For both prevalence and IR, considerable between-study heterogeneity was found (I2 = 99.3 and 86.0%, respectively). The quality of study reporting was rated as the medium for 20 studies and low for 12 studies. CONCLUSIONS: Although the largest amount of heterogeneity was due to the high precision of the studies' estimates, data source and geographic area could represent relevant study-level factors which could explain about 50% of the total between-study variability. Large-scale high-quality studies on the epidemiology of acromegaly are warranted to help the public health system in making decisions.

Guidelines that use the GRADE approach often fail to provide complete economic information for recommendations: A systematic survey.

OBJECTIVE: Little is known about how developers and panel members report cost and cost effectiveness considerations in GRADE guideline Evidence-to-Decision (EtD) frameworks. A systematic survey was conducted to explore approaches and factors contributing to variability in economic information reporting. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Guideline organization websites were systematically searched to create a convenience sample of guidelines. Reviewers screened published EtD frameworks and generated frequencies of reporting approaches. We used thematic analysis to summarize factors related to variability of economic information reporting. RESULTS: We included 142 guidelines. The overall rate of reporting economic information was high (91%); however, there was variability across completion of predefined EtD Likert-type judgments (70%), noting information as not identified across EtD framework domains (57%), and providing remarks to justify recommendations (38%). Six themes contributing to variability emerged, related to: intervention, population, payor, provider, healthcare resource use, and economic model building factors. Only 2 guidelines performed a GRADE certainty appraisal of economic outcomes. CONCLUSION: Completing predefined EtD Likert-type judgments, specifically reporting a literature review approach, study selection criteria and economic model building limitations, as well as linking these to recommendation justification remarks are potential areas for improved use, adoption and adaptation of recommendation, and transparency of GRADE EtD frameworks.

Customized guidance/training improved the psychometric properties of methodologically rigorous risk of bias instruments for non-randomized studies.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of guidance and training on the inter-rater reliability (IRR), inter-consensus reliability (ICR) and evaluator burden of the Risk of Bias (RoB) in Non-randomized Studies (NRS) of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool, and the RoB instrument for NRS of Exposures (ROB-NRSE). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: In a before-and-after study, seven reviewers appraised the RoB using ROBINS-I (n = 44) and ROB-NRSE (n = 44), before and after guidance and training. We used Gwet's AC1 statistic to calculate IRR and ICR. RESULTS: After guidance and training, the IRR and ICR of the overall bias domain of ROBINS-I and ROB-NRSE improved significantly; with many individual domains showing either a significant (IRR and ICR of ROB-NRSE; ICR of ROBINS-I), or nonsignificant improvement (IRR of ROBINS-I). Evaluator burden significantly decreased after guidance and training for ROBINS-I, whereas for ROB-NRSE there was a slight nonsignificant increase. CONCLUSION: Overall, there was benefit for guidance and training for both tools. We highly recommend guidance and training to reviewers prior to RoB assessments and that future research investigate aspects of guidance and training that are most effective.