Diagnosing destabilization risk in global land carbon sinks.

Global net land carbon uptake or net biome production (NBP) has increased during recent decades1. Whether its temporal variability and autocorrelation have changed during this period, however, remains elusive, even though an increase in both could indicate an increased potential for a destabilized carbon sink2,3. Here, we investigate the trends and controls of net terrestrial carbon uptake and its temporal variability and autocorrelation from 1981 to 2018 using two atmospheric-inversion models, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration derived from nine monitoring stations distributed across the Pacific Ocean and dynamic global vegetation models. We find that annual NBP and its interdecadal variability increased globally whereas temporal autocorrelation decreased. We observe a separation of regions characterized by increasingly variable NBP, associated with warm regions and increasingly variable temperatures, lower and weaker positive trends in NBP and regions where NBP became stronger and less variable. Plant species richness presented a concave-down parabolic spatial relationship with NBP and its variability at the global scale whereas nitrogen deposition generally increased NBP. Increasing temperature and its increasing variability appear as the most important drivers of declining and increasingly variable NBP. Our results show increasing variability of NBP regionally that can be mostly attributed to climate change and that may point to destabilization of the coupled carbon-climate system.

PDAT regulates PE as transient carbon sink alternative to triacylglycerol in Nannochloropsis.

Triacylglycerols (TAGs) are the main storage lipids in photosynthetic organisms under stress. In the oleaginous alga Nannochloropsis oceanica, while multiple acyl CoA:diacylglycerol (DAG) acyltransferases (NoDGATs) are involved in TAG production, the role of the unique phospholipid:DAG acyltransferase (NoPDAT) remains unknown. Here, we performed a functional complementation assay in TAG-deficient yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) and an in vitro assay to probe the acyltransferase activity of NoPDAT. Subcellular localization, overexpression, and knockdown (KD) experiments were also conducted to elucidate the role of NoPDAT in N. oceanica. NoPDAT, residing at the outermost plastid membrane, does not phylogenetically fall into the clades of algae or plants and uses phosphatidylethanolamine (PE) and phosphatidylglycerol with 16:0, 16:1, and 18:1 at position sn-2 as acyl-donors in vivo. NoPDAT KD, not triggering any compensatory mechanism via DGATs, led to an ∼30% decrease of TAG content, accompanied by a vast accumulation of PEs rich in 16:0, 16:1, and 18:1 fatty acids (referred to as "LU-PE") that was positively associated with CO2 availability. We conclude that the NoPDAT pathway is parallel to and independent of the NoDGAT pathway for oil production. LU-PE can serve as an alternative carbon sink for photosynthetically assimilated carbon in N. oceanica when PDAT-mediated TAG biosynthesis is compromised or under stress in the presence of high CO2 levels.

Retention of deposited ammonium and nitrate and its impact on the global forest carbon sink.

The impacts of enhanced nitrogen (N) deposition on the global forest carbon (C) sink and other ecosystem services may depend on whether N is deposited in reduced (mainly as ammonium) or oxidized forms (mainly as nitrate) and the subsequent fate of each. However, the fates of the two key reactive N forms and their contributions to forest C sinks are unclear. Here, we analyze results from 13 ecosystem-scale paired 15N-labelling experiments in temperate, subtropical, and tropical forests. Results show that total ecosystem N retention is similar for ammonium and nitrate, but plants take up more labelled nitrate ([Formula: see text]%) ([Formula: see text]) than ammonium ([Formula: see text]%) while soils retain more ammonium ([Formula: see text]%) than nitrate ([Formula: see text]%). We estimate that the N deposition-induced C sink in forests in the 2010s  is [Formula: see text] Pg C yr-1, higher than previous estimates because of a larger role for oxidized N and greater rates of global N deposition.

Incorporation of uncertainty to improve projections of tidal wetland elevation and carbon accumulation with sea-level rise.

Understanding the rates and patterns of tidal wetland elevation changes relative to sea-level is essential for understanding the extent of potential wetland loss over the coming years. Using an enhanced and more flexible modeling framework of an ecosystem model (WARMER-2), we explored sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on wetland elevations and carbon sequestration rates through 2100 by considering plant community transitions, salinity effects on productivity, and changes in sediment availability. We incorporated local experimental results for plant productivity relative to inundation and salinity into a species transition model, as well as site-level estimates of organic matter decomposition. The revised modeling framework includes an improved calibration scheme that more accurately reconstructs soil profiles and incorporates parameter uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations. Using WARMER-2, we evaluated elevation change in three tidal wetlands in the San Francisco Bay Estuary, CA, USA along an estuarine tidal and salinity gradient with varying scenarios of SLR, salinization, and changes in sediment availability. We also tested the sensitivity of marsh elevation and carbon accumulation rates to different plant productivity functions. Wetland elevation at all three sites was sensitive to changes in sediment availability, but sites with greater initial elevations or space for upland transgression persisted longer under higher SLR rates than sites at lower elevations. Using a multi-species wetland vegetation transition model for organic matter contribution to accretion, WARMER-2 projected increased elevations relative to sea levels (resilience) and higher rates of carbon accumulation when compared with projections assuming no future change in vegetation with SLR. A threshold analysis revealed that all three wetland sites were likely to eventually transition to an unvegetated state with SLR rates above 7 mm/yr. Our results show the utility in incorporating additional estuary-specific parameters to bolster confidence in model projections. The new WARMER-2 modeling framework is widely applicable to other tidal wetland ecosystems and can assist in teasing apart important drivers of wetland elevation change under SLR.

The decomposition process and nutrient release of invasive plant litter regulated by nutrient enrichment and water level change.

Wetlands are vulnerable to plant invasions and the decomposition of invasive plant litter could make impacts on the ecosystem services of wetlands including nutrient cycle and carbon sequestration. However, few studies have explored the effects of nutrient enrichment and water level change on the decomposition of invasive plant litter. In this study, we conducted a control experiment using the litterbag method to compare the decomposition rates and nutrient release in the litter of an invasive plant Alternanthera philoxeroides in three water levels and two nutrient enrichment treatments. This study found that the water level change and nutrient enrichment showed significant effects on the litter decomposition and nutrient dynamic of A. philoxeroides. The increase of water level significantly reduced the decomposition rate and nutrient release of litter in the nutrient control treatment, whereas no clear relationship was observed in the nutrient enrichment treatment, indicating that the effect of water level change on litter decomposition might be affected by nutrient enrichment. At the late stage of decomposition, the increase of phosphorus (P) concentration and the decrease of the ratio of carbon to P suggested that the decomposition of invasive plant litter was limited by P. Our results suggest that controlling P enrichment in water bodies is essential for the management of invasive plant and carbon sequestration of wetlands. In addition, the new index we proposed could provide a basis for quantifying the impact of invasive plant litter decomposition on carbon cycle in wetlands.

Mature Andean forests as globally important carbon sinks and future carbon refuges.

It is largely unknown how South America's Andean forests affect the global carbon cycle, and thus regulate climate change. Here, we measure aboveground carbon dynamics over the past two decades in 119 monitoring plots spanning a range of >3000 m elevation across the subtropical and tropical Andes. Our results show that Andean forests act as strong sinks for aboveground carbon (0.67 ± 0.08 Mg C ha-1 y-1) and have a high potential to serve as future carbon refuges. Aboveground carbon dynamics of Andean forests are driven by abiotic and biotic factors, such as climate and size-dependent mortality of trees. The increasing aboveground carbon stocks offset the estimated C emissions due to deforestation between 2003 and 2014, resulting in a net total uptake of 0.027 Pg C y-1. Reducing deforestation will increase Andean aboveground carbon stocks, facilitate upward species migrations, and allow for recovery of biomass losses due to climate change.

Nitrogen deposition accelerates soil carbon sequestration in tropical forests.

Terrestrial ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration plays an important role in ameliorating global climate change. While tropical forests exert a disproportionately large influence on global C cycling, there remains an open question on changes in below-ground soil C stocks with global increases in nitrogen (N) deposition, because N supply often does not constrain the growth of tropical forests. We quantified soil C sequestration through more than a decade of continuous N addition experiment in an N-rich primary tropical forest. Results showed that long-term N additions increased soil C stocks by 7 to 21%, mainly arising from decreased C output fluxes and physical protection mechanisms without changes in the chemical composition of organic matter. A meta-analysis further verified that soil C sequestration induced by excess N inputs is a general phenomenon in tropical forests. Notably, soil N sequestration can keep pace with soil C, based on consistent C/N ratios under N additions. These findings provide empirical evidence that below-ground C sequestration can be stimulated in mature tropical forests under excess N deposition, which has important implications for predicting future terrestrial sinks for both elevated anthropogenic CO2 and N deposition. We further developed a conceptual model hypothesis depicting how soil C sequestration happens under chronic N deposition in N-limited and N-rich ecosystems, suggesting a direction to incorporate N deposition and N cycling into terrestrial C cycle models to improve the predictability on C sink strength as enhanced N deposition spreads from temperate into tropical systems.

Combining organic and mineral fertilizers as a climate-smart integrated soil fertility management practice in sub-Saharan Africa: A meta-analysis.

Low productivity and climate change require climate-smart agriculture (CSA) for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), through (i) sustainably increasing crop productivity, (ii) enhancing the resilience of agricultural systems, and (iii) offsetting greenhouse gas emissions. We conducted a meta-analysis on experimental data to evaluate the contributions of combining organic and mineral nitrogen (N) applications to the three pillars of CSA for maize (Zea mays). Linear mixed effect modeling was carried out for; (i) grain productivity and agronomic efficiency of N (AE) inputs, (ii) inter-seasonal yield variability, and (iii) changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) content, while accounting for the quality of organic amendments and total N rates. Results showed that combined application of mineral and organic fertilizers leads to greater responses in productivity and AE as compared to sole applications when more than 100 kg N ha-1 is used with high-quality organic matter. For yield variability and SOC, no significant interactions were found when combining mineral and organic fertilizers. The variability of maize yields in soils amended with high-quality organic matter, except manure, was equal or smaller than for sole mineral fertilizer. Increases of SOC were only significant for organic inputs, and more pronounced for high-quality resources. For example, at a total N rate of 150 kg N ha-1 season-1, combining mineral fertilizer with the highest quality organic resources (50:50) increased AE by 20% and reduced SOC losses by 18% over 7 growing seasons as compared to sole mineral fertilizer. We conclude that combining organic and mineral N fertilizers can have significant positive effects on productivity and AE, but only improves the other two CSA pillars yield variability and SOC depending on organic resource input and quality. The findings of our meta-analysis help to tailor a climate smart integrated soil fertility management in SSA.

Perennial vegetables: A neglected resource for biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and nutrition.

Perennial vegetables are a neglected and underutilized class of crops with potential to address 21st century challenges. They represent 33-56% of cultivated vegetable species, and occupy 6% of world vegetable cropland. Despite their distinct relevance to climate change mitigation and nutritional security, perennial vegetables receive little attention in the scientific literature. Compared to widely grown and marketed vegetable crops, many perennial vegetables show higher levels of key nutrients needed to address deficiencies. Trees with edible leaves are the group of vegetables with the highest levels of these key nutrients. Individual "multi-nutrient" species are identified with very high levels of multiple nutrients for addressing deficiencies. This paper reports on the synthesis and meta-analysis of a heretofore fragmented global literature on 613 cultivated perennial vegetables, representing 107 botanical families from every inhabited continent, in order to characterize the extent and potential of this class of crops. Carbon sequestration potential from new adoption of perennial vegetables is estimated at 22.7-280.6 MMT CO2-eq/yr on 4.6-26.4 Mha by 2050.

The relationship between bacterial diversity and organic carbon mineralization in soft rock and sand compound soil.

The soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralization rate in sandy soil plays an important role in improving soil quality, and a research is needed to determine management practices that optimize the mineralization rate. When sandy soil is improved by adding soft rock, the specific promotion process of bacterium to SOC mineralization remain unclear. To investigate these mechanisms, we selected four treatments with soft rock to sand volume ratios of 0:1 (CK), 1:5 (C1), 1:2 (C2) and 1:1 (C3) to study. The mineralization rate of organic carbon was measured using the lye absorption method. High-throughput sequencing and scanning electron microscopy were used to determine the bacterial community structure and soil microstructure, respectively. The results showed that the organic carbon content of the sandy soil increased significantly (182.22-276.43%) after using the soft rock treatments. The SOC mineralization rate could be divided into two stages: a rapid decline during days 1-8 and a slow decline during days 8-60. With increased incubation time, the intensity of the cumulative release of organic carbon gradually weakened. Compared with the CK treatment, the SOC mineralization accumulation (Ct) and the potential mineralizable organic carbon content (C0) in the C1, C2, and C3 treatments increased significantly, by 106.98-225.94% and 112.22-254.08%, respectively. The cumulative mineralization rate (Cr) was 18.11% and 21.38% smaller with treatments C2 and C3, respectively. The SOC mineralization rate constant (k) decreased significantly after the addition of soft rock, while the half-turnover period (Th) changed inversely with k. Compared with the CK treatment, the number of gene copies of the soil bacteria increased by 15.38-272.53% after adding soft rock, with the most significant increase in treatment C3. The bacterial diversity index also increased significantly under treatment C3. The three dominant bacteria were Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Chloroflexi. The correlation between Cr and one of the non-dominant bacteria, Firmicutes, was large, and the bacteria had a significant positive correlation with k. At the same time, the abundance of Firmicutes under treatments C2 and C3 was small. As the proportion of soft rock increased, the soil particles changed from point contact to surface contact, and the adhesion on the surface of the particles gradually increased. Results from this study show that the retention time of SOC can be increased and the carbon sequestration effect is better when the ratio of soft rock to sand is set to 1:2.

Interannual and seasonal variations in carbon exchanges over an alpine meadow in the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China.

The alpine meadow is highly sensitive to global climate change due to its high elevation and cold environment. To understand the dynamics of ecosystem carbon cycling, CO2 fluxes were measured over the Suli alpine meadow, which is located at the upper reach of the Shule River basin at the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), China. The measurements were taken from October 2008 to September 2012 using the eddy covariance technique. Obvious seasonal and inter-annual variations were observed in the CO2 flux. The annual net carbon exchange ranged from -195.28 g·CO2·m-2 to -118.49 g·CO2·m-2, indicating that the alpine meadow ecosystem in this area played a role as a carbon sink. The inter-annual variability in the net carbon exchange was significantly related to the length of the growing season for the alpine meadow. The results showed that the months of June, July and August were the strongest CO2 absorption periods, while April, May and October were the strongest CO2 release periods. The annual net exchanges of CO2 in the four years were -118.49 g·CO2·m-2, -130.75 g·CO2·m-2, -195.83 g·CO2·m-2 and -160.65 g·CO2·m-2, and the average value was -151.43 g·CO2·m-2. On a seasonal scale, the monthly CO2 fluxes were largely controlled by temperature. At the annual scale, there was no dominant factor that influenced the interannual variations in the CO2 flux.

Pervasive decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time across forest climate zones.

Forests play a major role in the global carbon cycle. Previous studies on the capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2 have mostly focused on carbon uptake, but the roles of carbon turnover time and its spatiotemporal changes remain poorly understood. Here, we used long-term inventory data (1955 to 2018) from 695 mature forest plots to quantify temporal trends in living vegetation carbon turnover time across tropical, temperate, and cold climate zones, and compared plot data to 8 Earth system models (ESMs). Long-term plots consistently showed decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time, likely driven by increased tree mortality across all major climate zones. Changes in living vegetation carbon turnover time were negatively correlated with CO2 enrichment in both forest plot data and ESM simulations. However, plot-based correlations between living vegetation carbon turnover time and climate drivers such as precipitation and temperature diverged from those of ESM simulations. Our analyses suggest that forest carbon sinks are likely to be constrained by a decrease in living vegetation carbon turnover time, and accurate projections of forest carbon sink dynamics will require an improved representation of tree mortality processes and their sensitivity to climate in ESMs.

Detailed global modelling of soil organic carbon in cropland, grassland and forest soils.

Assessments of the global carbon (C) cycle typically rely on simplified models which consider large areas as homogeneous in terms of the response of soils to land use or consider very broad land classes. For example, "cropland" is typically modelled as an aggregation of distinct practices and individual crops over large regions. Here, we use the process-based Rothamsted soil Carbon Model (RothC model), which has a history of being successfully applied at a global scale, to calculate attainable SOC stocks and C mineralization rates for each of c. 17,000 regions (combination of soil type and texture, climate type, initial land use and country) in the World, under near-past climate conditions. We considered 28 individual crops and, for each, multiple production practices, plus 16 forest types and 1 grassland class (total of 80 classes). We find that conversion to cropland can result in SOC increases, particularly when the soil remains covered with crop residues (an average gain of 12 t C/ha) or using irrigation (4 t C/ha), which are mutually reinforcing effects. Attainable SOC stocks vary significantly depending on the land use class, particularly for cropland. Common aggregations in global modelling of a single agricultural class would be inaccurate representations of these results. Attainable SOC stocks obtained here were compared to long-term experiment data and are well aligned with the literature. Our results provide a regional and detailed understanding of C sequestration that will also enable better greenhouse gas reporting at national level as alternatives to IPCC tier 2 defaults.

Blue Growth Potential to Mitigate Climate Change through Seaweed Offsetting.

Carbon offsetting-receiving credit for reducing, avoiding, or sequestering carbon-has become part of the portfolio of solutions to mitigate carbon emissions, and thus climate change, through policy and voluntary markets, primarily by land-based re- or afforestation and preservation [1, 2]. However, land is limiting, creating interest in a rapidly growing aquatic farming sector of seaweed aquaculture [3-5]. Synthesizing data from scientific literature, we assess the extent and cost of scaling seaweed aquaculture to provide sufficient CO2eq sequestration for several climate change mitigation scenarios, with a focus on the food sector-a major source of greenhouse gases [6]. Given known ecological constraints (nutrients and temperature), we found a substantial suitable area (ca. 48 million km2) for seaweed farming, which is largely unfarmed. Within its own industry, seaweed could create a carbon-neutral aquaculture sector with just 14% (mean = 25%) of current seaweed production (0.001% of suitable area). At a much larger scale, we find seaweed culturing extremely unlikely to offset global agriculture, in part due to production growth and cost constraints. Yet offsetting agriculture appears more feasible at a regional level, especially areas with strong climate policy, such as California (0.065% of suitable area). Importantly, seaweed farming can provide other benefits to coastlines affected by eutrophic, hypoxic, and/or acidic conditions [7, 8], creating opportunities for seaweed farming to act as "charismatic carbon" that serves multiple purposes. Seaweed offsetting is not the sole solution to climate change, but it provides an invaluable new tool for a more sustainable future.

Rapid Sequestration of Ecosystem Carbon in 30-year Reforestation with Mixed Species in Dry Hot Valley of the Jinsha River.

Reforestation plays an important role in the carbon cycle and climate change. However, knowledge of ecosystem carbon sequestration through reforestation with mixed species is limited. Especially in dry hot valley of the Jinsha River, no studies cover total ecosystem carbon sequestration level in mature mixed plantations for a limited area of mixed plantations and difficulty in the sampling of plant roots and deep soil. In this study, carbon sequestration of seven mixed plantations of different ages in dry hot valley of the Jinsha River was investigated with analogous sites method. The results are as follows: 1) Deep soil organic carbon (SOC) storage significantly increased with stand age (p = 0.025), possibly due to fine root exudates and dissolved organic carbon transportation into deep soil and retention. 2) Total biomass carbon storage in the 30-year-old mixed plantation was 77.78 t C ha-1, 54 times reference wasteland and 9 times reference natural recovery shrub-grassland. However, total biomass carbon storage of 30-year-old mixed plantation was insignificantly lower than that of reference natural forest (p = 0.429). After 30 years of reforestation, plantation biomass carbon storage recovered to reference level, and its sequestration rate was 2.54 t C ha-1 yr-1. 3) The total ecosystem carbon storage of 30-year-old mixed plantation was 185.50 t C ha-1, 2.38 times reference wasteland, 2.29 times reference natural recovery shrub grassland, and 29% lower than reference natural forest. It indicated that niche complementary, good stand structure, and characteristics of dominant species Leucaena leucocephala in mixed plantations facilitate more rapid carbon sequestration, especially biomass carbon in the dry hot valley.

Variations in carbon source-sink relationships in subalpine fir across elevational gradients.

Cold-adapted trees display acclimation in both carbon source and carbon sink capacity to low-temperature stress at their upper elevational range limits. Hence a balanced carbon source-sink capacity might be required for their persistence and survival at the elevational tree limits. The present study examined the spatial dynamics of carbon source-sink relationship in subalpine fir (Abies fargesii) trees along elevational gradients in the northern slope of the temperate region and in the southern slope of the subtropics in terms of climate in the Qinling Mountain range, north-central China. The results showed that non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) concentrations in both the source and sink tissues increased with the increase in elevation. The ratio of carbon source-sink displayed a consistent decreasing trend with the increase in elevation and during growing season, showing that it was lowest at a ratio of 2.93 in the northern slope and at a ratio of 2.61 in the southern slope at the upper distribution elevations in the late growing season. Such variations of carbon source-sink ratio might be attributable to the balance between carbon source and sink activities, which changed seasonally across the elevational distribution range. We concluded that a ratio of carbon source-sink of at least 2.6 might be essential for subalpine fir trees to persist at their upper range limits. Therefore, a sufficient source-sink ratio and a balanced source-sink relationship might be required for subalpine fir trees to survive and develop at their upper elevational distribution limits.

Natural forests exhibit higher carbon sequestration and lower water consumption than planted forests in China.

Large-scale planted forests (PF) have been given a higher priority in China for improving the environment and mitigating climate change relative to natural forests (NF). However, the ecological consequences of these PF on water resource security have been less considered in the national scale. Moreover, a critically needed comparison on key ecological effects between PF and NF under climate change has rarely been conducted. Here, we compare carbon sequestration and water consumption in PF and NF across China using combination of remote sensing and field inventory. We found that, on average, NF consumed 6.8% (37.5 mm per growing season) less water but sequestered 1.1% (12.5 g C m-2  growing season-1 ) more carbon than PF in the period of 2000-2012. While there was no significant difference in water consumption (p = 0.6) between PF and NF in energy-limited areas (dryness index [DI] < 1), water consumption was significantly (p < 0.001) higher in PF than that in NF in water-limited regions (DI > 1). Moreover, a distinct and larger shift of water yield was identified in PF than in NF from the 1980s to the 2000s, indicating that PF were more sensitive to climate change, leading to a higher water consumption when compared with NF. Our results suggest NF should be properly valued in terms of maximizing the benefits of carbon sequestration and water yield. Future forest plantation projects should be planned with caution, particularly in water-limited regions where they might have less positive effect on carbon sequestration but lead to significant water yield reduction.

Comparative analyses of different biogenic CO2 emission accounting systems in life cycle assessment.

The biomass-derived CO2 emission is usually treated as neutral to climate change. However, due to the stay of biomass-derived CO2 in the atmosphere, many researchers believe that biomass-derived CO2 also has climate change benefit. Therefore, many methods to account the global warming potential of biomass-derived CO2 (GWPbio) were proposed. Based on those new methods, we developed an accounting system for climate change impact of biomass utilization in this study, and compared it with the conventional accounting system which follows the carbon neutral assumption. A case study of caragana-to-pellet bioenergy production system was simulated to test the performance of the GWPbio accounting system. The CENTURY model was used to simulate carbon dynamics of caragana plantation in the Loess Plateau in China, and life cycle assessment (LCA) model was developed to estimate the life cycle emissions of the caragana-to-pellet system. Attributed to short rotation of caragana plantation and fast biomass accumulation after harvest, the GWPbio values around 0.044 were obtained. When the GWPbio was applied to LCA, significant high life cycle CO2 emission was found in comparison to the conventional method. However, the GWPbio accounting system has lower positive climate change impact than the conventional accounting system in assessing the overall impact of biomass utilization. This indicated that the application of GWPbio accounting system would encourage the utilization of biomass and allow a fair comparison with fossil fuels. In the sensitivity analysis, we found the accounting system was sensitive to biomass accumulation and all the corresponding factor affecting biomass accumulation.