Competing biomedical HIV prevention strategies: potential cost-effectiveness of HIV vaccines and PrEP in Seattle, WA.

INTRODUCTION: Promising HIV vaccine candidates are steadily progressing through the clinical trial pipeline. Once available, HIV vaccines will be an important complement but also potential competitor to other biomedical prevention tools such as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Accordingly, the value of HIV vaccines and the policies for rollout may depend on that interplay and tradeoffs with utilization of existing products. In this economic modelling analysis, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of HIV vaccines considering their potential interaction with PrEP and condom use. METHODS: We developed a dynamic model of HIV transmission among the men who have sex with men population (MSM), aged 15-64 years, in Seattle, WA offered PrEP and HIV vaccine over a time horizon of 2025-2045. A healthcare sector perspective with annual discount rate of 3% for costs (2017 USD) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was used. The primary economic endpoint is the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) when compared to no HIV vaccine availability. RESULTS: HIV vaccines improved population health and increased healthcare costs. Vaccination campaigns achieving 90% coverage of high-risk men and 60% coverage of other men within five years of introduction are projected to avoid 40% of new HIV infections between 2025 and 2045. This increased total healthcare costs by $30 million, with some PrEP costs shifted to HIV vaccine spending. HIV vaccines are estimated to have an ICER of $42,473/QALY, considered cost-effective using a threshold of $150,000/QALY. Results were most sensitive to HIV vaccine efficacy and future changes in the cost of PrEP drugs. Sensitivity analysis found ranges of 30-70% HIV vaccine efficacy remained cost-effective. Results were also sensitive to reductions in condom use among PrEP and vaccine users. CONCLUSIONS: Access to an HIV vaccine is desirable as it could increase the overall effectiveness of combination HIV prevention efforts and improve population health. Planning for the rollout and scale-up of HIV vaccines should carefully consider the design of policies that guide interactions between vaccine and PrEP utilization and potential competition.

The future of a partially effective HIV vaccine: assessing limitations at the population level.

OBJECTIVES: Mathematical models have unanimously predicted that a first-generation HIV vaccine would be useful and cost-effective to roll out, but that its overall impact would be insufficient to reverse the epidemic. Here, we explore what factors contribute most to limiting the impact of such a vaccine. METHODS: Ranging from a theoretical ideal to a more realistic regimen, mirroring the one used in the currently ongoing trial in South Africa (HVTN 702), we model a nested hierarchy of vaccine attributes such as speed of scale-up, efficacy, durability, and return rates for booster doses. RESULTS: The predominant reasons leading to a substantial loss of vaccine impact on the HIV epidemic are the time required to scale up mass vaccination, limited durability, and waning of efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: A first-generation partially effective vaccine would primarily serve as an intermediate milestone, furnishing correlates of immunity and platforms that could serve to accelerate future development of a highly effective, durable, and scalable next-generation vaccine capable of reversing the HIV epidemic.

Targeting and vaccine durability are key for population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of a pox-protein HIV vaccine regimen in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: RV144 is to date the only HIV vaccine trial to demonstrate efficacy, albeit rapidly waning over time. The HVTN 702 trial is currently evaluating in South Africa a similar vaccine formulation to that of RV144 for subtype C HIV with additional boosters (pox-protein regimen). Using a detailed stochastic individual-based network model of disease transmission calibrated to the HIV epidemic, we investigate population-level impact and maximum cost of an HIV vaccine to remain cost-effective. METHODS: Consistent with the original pox-protein regimen, we model a primary series of five vaccinations meeting the goal of 50% cumulative efficacy 24 months after the first dose and include two-yearly boosters that maintain durable efficacy over 10 years. We simulate vaccination programs in South Africa starting in 2027 under various vaccine targeting and HIV treatment and prevention assumptions. RESULTS: Our analysis shows that this partially effective vaccine could prevent, at catch-up vaccination with 60% coverage, up to 941,000 (15.6%) new infections between 2027 and 2047 assuming current trends of antiretroviral treatment. An impact of up to 697,000 (11.5%) infections prevented could be achieved by targeting age cohorts of highest incidence. Economic evaluation indicates that, if treatment scale-up was achieved, vaccination could be cost-effective at a total cost of less than $385 and $62 per 10-year series (cost-effectiveness thresholds of $5,691 and $750). CONCLUSIONS: While a partially effective, rapidly waning vaccine could help to prevent HIV infections, it will not eliminate HIV as a public health priority in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccination is expected to be most effective under targeted delivery to age groups of highest HIV incidence. Awaiting results of trial, the introduction of vaccination should go in parallel with continued innovation in HIV prevention, including studies to determine the costs of delivery and feasibility and further research into products with greater efficacy and durability.

Treatment of HIV for the Prevention of Transmission in Discordant Couples and at the Population Level.

The scientific breakthrough proving that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can halt heterosexual HIV transmission came in the form of a landmark clinical trial conducted among serodiscordant couples. Study findings immediately informed global recommendations for the use of treatment as prevention in serodiscordant couples. The extent to which these findings are generalizable to other key populations or to groups exposed to HIV through nonsexual transmission routes (i.e., anal intercourse or unsafe injection of drugs) has since driven a large body of research. This review explores the history of HIV research in serodiscordant couples, the implications for management of couples, subsequent research on treatment as prevention in other key populations, and challenges in community implementation of these strategies.

Projected effectiveness and added value of HIV vaccination campaigns in South Africa: A modeling study.

Promising multi-dose HIV vaccine regimens are being tested in trials in South Africa. We estimated the potential epidemiological and economic impact of HIV vaccine campaigns compared to continuous vaccination, assuming that vaccine efficacy is transient and dependent on immune response. We used a dynamic economic mathematical model of HIV transmission calibrated to 2012 epidemiological data to simulate vaccination with anticipated antiretroviral treatment scale-up in South Africa. We estimate that biennial vaccination with a 70% efficacious vaccine reaching 20% of the sexually active population could prevent 480,000-650,000 HIV infections (13.8-15.3% of all infections) over 10 years. Assuming a launch price of $15 per dose, vaccination was found to be cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $13,746 per quality-adjusted life-year as compared to no vaccination. Increasing vaccination coverage to 50% will prevent more infections but is less likely to achieve cost-effectiveness. Campaign vaccination is consistently more effective and costs less than continuous vaccination across scenarios. Results suggest that a partially effective HIV vaccine will have substantial impact on the HIV epidemic in South Africa and offer good value if priced less than $105 for a five-dose series. Vaccination campaigns every two years may offer greater value for money than continuous vaccination reaching the same coverage level.

Acceptability of vaccination against HIV: A mapping of Togolese people's positions.

In anticipation of a future HIV vaccine, we mapped the different personal positions regarding HIV vaccination of people in Togo. In early 2014, 363 adults indicated their willingness to receive a future HIV vaccine under different conditions varying as a function of five factors: perceived susceptibility to HIV, vaccine effectiveness, perceived severity of AIDS, vaccine cost, and family's influence. We found five qualitatively different positions: unconditional acceptance (49%), depends on cost/effectiveness ratio (20%), depends on cost (18%), total indecision (10%), and complete reluctance (3%). Accordingly, HIV vaccination strategies in Togo and elsewhere in Africa need to be multifaceted and tailored.

European strategy for vaccine development against infectious diseases.

Immunisation efforts save millions of lives every year, but vaccines hold the potential to deliver even greater health benefits for mankind. Vaccine research and development is highly complex, and it requires concerted public funding efforts to support. In this paper we discuss EU funding priorities and the resulting recent advancements in European vaccine research, and we lay out the EU strategy for aiding promising vaccine candidates to successfully reach the market.

Projected economic evaluation of the national implementation of a hypothetical HIV vaccination program among adolescents in South Africa, 2012.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents in South Africa are at high risk of acquiring HIV. The HIV vaccination of adolescents could reduce HIV incidence and mortality. The potential impact and cost-effectiveness of a national school-based HIV vaccination program among adolescents was determined. METHOD: The national HIV disease and cost burden was compared with (intervention) and without HIV vaccination (comparator) given to school-going adolescents using a semi-Markov model. Life table analysis was conducted to determine the impact of the intervention on life expectancy. Model inputs included measures of disease and cost burden and hypothetical assumptions of vaccine characteristics. The base-case HIV vaccine modelled cost at US$ 12 per dose; vaccine efficacy of 50 %; duration of protection of 10 years achieved at a coverage rate of 60 % and required annual boosters. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated using life years gained (LYG) serving as the outcome measure. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on the vaccine characteristics to assess parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: The HIV vaccination model yielded an ICER of US$ 5 per LYG (95 % CI ZAR 2.77-11.61) compared with the comparator, which is considerably less than the national willingness-to-pay threshold of cost-effectiveness. This translated to an 11 % increase in per capita costs from US$ 80 to US$ 89. National implementation of this intervention could potentially result in an estimated cumulative gain of 23.6 million years of life (95 % CI 8.48-34.3 million years) among adolescents age 10-19 years that were vaccinated. The 10 year absolute risk reduction projected by vaccine implementation was 0.42 % for HIV incidence and 0.41 % for HIV mortality, with an increase in life expectancy noted across all age groups. The ICER was sensitive to the vaccine efficacy, coverage and vaccine pricing in the sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: A national HIV vaccination program would be cost-effective and would avert new HIV infections and decrease the mortality and morbidity associated with HIV disease. Decision makers would have to discern how these findings, derived from local data and reflective of the South African epidemic, can be integrated into the national long term health planning should a HIV vaccine become available.

The Case for Adolescent HIV Vaccination in South Africa: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Despite comprising 0.7% of the world population, South Africa is home to 18% of the global human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. Unyielding HIV subepidemics among adolescents threaten national attempts to curtail the disease burden. Should an HIV vaccine become available, establishing its point of entry into the health system becomes a priority. This study assesses the impact of school-based HIV vaccination and explores how variations in vaccine characteristics affect cost-effectiveness. The cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained associated with school-based adolescent HIV vaccination services was assessed using Markov modeling that simulated annual cycles based on national costing data. The estimation was based on a life expectancy of 70 years and employs the health care provider perspective. The simultaneous implementation of HIV vaccination services with current HIV management programs would be cost-effective, even at relatively higher vaccine cost. At base vaccine cost of US$ 12, the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$ 43 per QALY gained, with improved ICER values yielded at lower vaccine costs. The ICER was sensitive to duration of vaccine mediated protection and variations in vaccine efficacy. Data from this work demonstrate that vaccines offering longer duration of protection and at lower cost would result in improved ICER values. School-based HIV vaccine services of adolescents, in addition to current HIV prevention and treatment health services delivered, would be cost-effective.

Exploring the Potential Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of AIDS Vaccine within a Comprehensive HIV/AIDS Response in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: The Investment Framework Enhanced (IFE) proposed in 2013 by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) explored how maximizing existing interventions and adding emerging prevention options, including a vaccine, could further reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This article describes additional modeling which looks more closely at the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of AIDS vaccination in LMICs as part of UNAIDS IFE. METHODS: An epidemiological model was used to explore the potential impact of AIDS vaccination in LMICs in combination with other interventions through 2070. Assumptions were based on perspectives from research, vaccination and public health experts, as well as observations from other HIV/AIDS interventions and vaccination programs. Sensitivity analyses varied vaccine efficacy, duration of protection, coverage, and cost. RESULTS: If UNAIDS IFE goals were fully achieved, new annual HIV infections in LMICs would decline from 2.0 million in 2014 to 550,000 in 2070. A 70% efficacious vaccine introduced in 2027 with three doses, strong uptake and five years of protection would reduce annual new infections by 44% over the first decade, by 65% the first 25 years and by 78% to 122,000 in 2070. Vaccine impact would be much greater if the assumptions in UNAIDS IFE were not fully achieved. An AIDS vaccine would be cost-effective within a wide range of scenarios. INTERPRETATION: Even a modestly effective vaccine could contribute strongly to a sustainable response to HIV/AIDS and be cost-effective, even with optimistic assumptions about other interventions. Higher efficacy would provide even greater impact and cost-effectiveness, and would support broader access. Vaccine efficacy and cost per regimen are critical in achieving cost-effectiveness, with cost per regimen being particularly critical in low-income countries and at lower efficacy levels.

Europe Invests in HIV Vaccine Research.

Talent-rich but comparatively resource-poor and under intense political pressure, the European Union launches a pair of research initiatives under a E45 million umbrella.

Lessons learned from HPV vaccine delivery in low-resource settings and opportunities for HIV prevention, treatment, and care among adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines to prevent cervical cancer have become available in recent years and presented a new challenge to health systems, since they prevent a sexually transmitted virus and are most effective if they are delivered to young adolescent girls, a group not widely served by other health programs. Demonstration and pilot HPV vaccination programs undertaken in the past 7-8 years in low-resource settings have produced lessons that may be more broadly applied to other adolescent health interventions, particularly to those that attempt to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. METHODS: A systematic literature review was undertaken to identify formal and informal evaluations of HPV vaccine use in low- and middle-income countries. Special attention was devoted to the detailed evaluations carried out on large demonstration projects in India, Peru, Uganda, and Vietnam. RESULTS: These lessons fall into 2 main categories: service delivery operations and community outreach and mobilization. Operational issues included venue and timing of vaccinations, definition of target population, micro-planning and coordination, integration with other services, and training. Community issues included consent, messages and channels, endorsement and support, and timing of mobilization efforts. DISCUSSION: Careful planning, good coordination across sectors and levels, and sensitive attention to the expressed needs for information and preferences for communication channels among youth, parents, and communities more broadly were among the key lessons that are relevant for HIV interventions, but many of the smaller details were also important. CONCLUSIONS: Applying or adapting these lessons to adolescent HIV services could accelerate effective program design and enhance success.

Funding HIV-vaccine research in developing countries-what is wrong with IAVI's recommendation?

The International AIDS Vaccine Initiative recommends targeting resources to research institutions in developing countries in order to accelerate the development of an effective HIV vaccine. In contrast, this paper shows that neither lump-sum nor in-kind transfers are an effective policy. We analyze several financing mechanisms as a means to overcome the lack of depth in HIV-vaccine research in a non-cooperative framework. At first, we point to cases in which financial support is actually counterproductive. Then we analyze whether in-kind transfers are preferable to lump-sum transfers. Even if donors prefer aid in kind because the incentives for moral hazard of recipients can be reduced, we demonstrate that it is effective only if recipients have cost advantages.

The marginal willingness-to-pay for attributes of a hypothetical HIV vaccine.

This paper estimates the marginal willingness-to-pay for attributes of a hypothetical HIV vaccine using discrete choice modeling. We use primary data from 326 respondents from Bangkok and Chiang Mai, Thailand, in 2008-2009, selected using purposive, venue-based sampling across two strata. Participants completed a structured questionnaire and full rank discrete choice modeling task administered using computer-assisted personal interviewing. The choice experiment was used to rank eight hypothetical HIV vaccine scenarios, with each scenario comprising seven attributes (including cost) each of which had two levels. The data were analyzed in two alternative specifications: (1) best-worst; and (2) full-rank, using logit likelihood functions estimated with custom routines in Gauss matrix programming language. In the full-rank specification, all vaccine attributes are significant predictors of probability of vaccine choice. The biomedical attributes of the hypothetical HIV vaccine (efficacy, absence of VISP, absence of side effects, and duration of effect) are the most important attributes for HIV vaccine choice. On average respondents are more than twice as likely to accept a vaccine with 99% efficacy, than a vaccine with 50% efficacy. This translates to a willingness to pay US$383 more for a high efficacy vaccine compared with the low efficacy vaccine. Knowledge of the relative importance of determinants of HIV vaccine acceptability is important to ensure the success of future vaccination programs. Future acceptability studies of hypothetical HIV vaccines should use more finely grained biomedical attributes, and could also improve the external validity of results by including more levels of the cost attribute.

Willingness to participate in HIV vaccine trials among men who have sex with men in Chennai and Mumbai, India: a social ecological approach.

BACKGROUND: Recruitment of low- and middle-income country volunteers from most-at-risk populations in HIV vaccine trials is essential to vaccine development. In India, men who have sex with men (MSM) are at disproportionately high risk for HIV infection and an important population for trial recruitment. Investigations of willingness to participate (WTP) in HIV vaccine trials have focused predominantly on individual-level determinants. We explored multi-level factors associated with WTP among MSM in India. METHODS: We conducted 12 focus groups (n = 68) with low socioeconomic MSM in Chennai and Mumbai, and 14 key informant interviews with MSM community leaders and service providers. Focus groups/interviews were recorded, transcribed and translated into English. Two bilingual investigators conducted thematic analysis using line-by-line coding and a constant comparative method, with member-checking by community representatives. RESULTS: Factors associated with WTP were evidenced across the social ecology of MSM-social-structural: poverty, HIV-, sexual- and gender non-conformity stigma, institutionalized discrimination and government sponsorship of trials; community-level: endorsement by MSM community leaders and organizations, and fear of within-group discrimination; interpersonal: anticipated family discord, partner rejection, having financially-dependent family members and disclosure of same-sex sexuality; and individual-level: HIV vaccine trial knowledge and misconceptions, safety concerns, altruism and preventive misconception. CONCLUSION: Pervasive familial, community and social-structural factors characteristic of the Indian sociocultural context may complicate individual-focused approaches to WTP and thereby constrain the effectiveness of interventions to support recruitment and retention in HIV vaccine trials. Interventions to reduce stigma and discrimination against MSM and people living with HIV, capacity-building of MSM community organizations and transparent communications tailored to the knowledge and educational level of local communities may support meaningful engagement of MSM in HIV vaccine trials. Vigilance in providing fair but not excessive compensation and healthcare benefits and in mitigating preventive misconception are warranted to support ethical conduct of trials among MSM in India.

Is an HIV vaccine possible?

Although many new prevention modalities that include the use of antiretroviral drugs show promise, there is no question that a global solution to the HIV epidemic will not be economically or logistically feasible without the development of vaccine that provides durable protection. In the best case scenario, the vaccine has to protect against acquisition of infection, likely mediated by Env-specific B-cell responses combined with CD4+ T-cell responses to evoke full maturation and maintenance of protective antibodies. But HIV-specific CD8+ T-cell responses are also likely to be a key element, particularly for those inevitable situations in which full vaccine-induced protection from acquisition is not achieved, in which case durable control of established infection will be required. Although there is reason to be optimistic that an effective HIV vaccine is possible, one of the major constraints moving forward will likely be constraint on funding to support a diversity of concepts at a time that the correlates of protection from acquisition and disease progression are still unknown. Given the scope of the epidemic and the economic climate, we must strive to do much more with less and seek to access additional resources, both scientific and monetary, from every possible source.

A social vaccine? Social and structural contexts of HIV vaccine acceptability among most-at-risk populations in Thailand.

A safe and efficacious preventive HIV vaccine would be a tremendous asset for low- and middle-income country (LMIC) settings, which bear the greatest global impact of AIDS. Nevertheless, substantial gaps between clinical trial efficacy and real-world effectiveness of already licensed vaccines demonstrate that availability does not guarantee uptake. In order to advance an implementation science of HIV vaccines centred on LMIC settings, we explored sociocultural and structural contexts of HIV vaccine acceptability among most-at-risk populations in Thailand, the site of the largest HIV vaccine trial ever conducted. Cross-cutting challenges for HIV vaccine uptake - social stigma, discrimination in healthcare settings and out-of-pocket vaccine cost - emerged in addition to population-specific barriers and opportunities. A 'social vaccine' describes broad sociocultural and structural interventions - culturally relevant vaccine promotion galvanised by communitarian norms, mitigating anti-gay, anti-injecting drug user and HIV-related stigma, combating discrimination in healthcare, decriminalising adult sex work and injecting drug use and providing vaccine cost subsidies - that create an enabling environment for HIV vaccine uptake among most-at-risk populations. By approaching culturally relevant social and structural interventions as integral mechanisms to the success of new HIV prevention technologies, biomedical advances may be leveraged in renewed opportunities to promote and optimise combination prevention.