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1.
PLoS Med ; 19(1): e1003870, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34990450

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Excess mortality captures the total effect of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on mortality and is not affected by misspecification of cause of death. We aimed to describe how health and demographic factors were associated with excess mortality during, compared to before, the pandemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed a time series dataset including 9,635,613 adults (≥40 years old) registered at United Kingdom general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We extracted weekly numbers of deaths and numbers at risk between March 2015 and July 2020, stratified by individual-level factors. Excess mortality during Wave 1 of the UK pandemic (5 March to 27 May 2020) compared to the prepandemic period was estimated using seasonally adjusted negative binomial regression models. Relative rates (RRs) of death for a range of factors were estimated before and during Wave 1 by including interaction terms. We found that all-cause mortality increased by 43% (95% CI 40% to 47%) during Wave 1 compared with prepandemic. Changes to the RR of death associated with most sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were small during Wave 1 compared with prepandemic. However, the mortality RR associated with dementia markedly increased (RR for dementia versus no dementia prepandemic: 3.5, 95% CI 3.4 to 3.5; RR during Wave 1: 5.1, 4.9 to 5.3); a similar pattern was seen for learning disabilities (RR prepandemic: 3.6, 3.4 to 3.5; during Wave 1: 4.8, 4.4 to 5.3), for black or South Asian ethnicity compared to white, and for London compared to other regions. Relative risks for morbidities were stable in multiple sensitivity analyses. However, a limitation of the study is that we cannot assume that the risks observed during Wave 1 would apply to other waves due to changes in population behaviour, virus transmission, and risk perception. CONCLUSIONS: The first wave of the UK COVID-19 pandemic appeared to amplify baseline mortality risk to approximately the same relative degree for most population subgroups. However, disproportionate increases in mortality were seen for those with dementia, learning disabilities, non-white ethnicity, or living in London.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/mortalidade , Mortalidade/tendências , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Estatísticos , Pandemias , Fatores de Risco , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidade , Fatores de Tempo , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
2.
BMC Public Health ; 22(1): 54, 2022 01 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35000578

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]). METHODS: Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy. RESULTS: As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18-185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112-1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Idoso , Brasil , Feminino , Humanos , Expectativa de Vida , Masculino , Mortalidade , Mortalidade Prematura , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados Unidos
3.
Arch Gerontol Geriatr ; 98: 104559, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34741896

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: 1) examine the association between lifestyle and mortality; 2) examine the association between two aging measures and mortality; 3) evaluate the mediating effect of the two aging measures on the association between lifestyle and mortality among older Chinese adults. METHODS: We used data from 2039 older adults (≥ 65 years) from the 2011/2012 biomarker substudy of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). We created a healthy lifestyle index based on 5 factors (exercise, smoking, drinking, diet, and BMI, range: 0-5). We calculated two aging measures, the Klemera and Doubal method-biological age (KDM-BA) and physiological dysregulation (PD), based on 10 blood-based biomarkers using algorithms developed previously. A Cox proportional hazards model, general linear regression model, and formal mediation analysis were performed. RESULTS: After adjustment for age and sex, compared to participants without any healthy lifestyle factors, those with 5 healthy lifestyle factors had an 85% lower risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.15, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.04, 0.60). PD, but not KDM-BA, was significantly associated with mortality (HR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.25, 2.29). The healthy lifestyle index was negatively associated with PD (ß = -0.021, P = 0.012). PD mediated 9% (95% CI: 1%, 52%, P = 0.043) of the total effect of the healthy lifestyle index on mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In the older Chinese population, healthy lifestyle reduces mortality risk and aging partially mediates this association. The findings highlight the importance of adherence to a healthy lifestyle for promoting phenotypic aging even in late life.


Assuntos
Envelhecimento , Estilo de Vida , Idoso , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Longevidade , Estudos Longitudinais , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade , Fatores de Risco
4.
Chemosphere ; 286(Pt 1): 131615, 2022 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34303049

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Systematic evaluations of the cumulative effects and mortality displacement of ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution on deaths are lacking. We aimed to discern the cumulative effect profile of PM exposure, and investigate the presence of mortality displacement in a large-scale population. METHODS: We conducted a time-series analysis with different exposure-lag models on 13 cities in Jiangsu, China, to estimate the effects of PM pollution on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality (2015-2019). Over-dispersed Poisson generalized additive models were integrated with distributed lag models to estimate cumulative exposure effects, and assess mortality displacement. RESULTS: Pooled cumulative effect estimates with lags of 0-7 and 0-14 days were substantially larger than those with single-day and 2-day moving average lags. For each 10 µg/m3 increment in PM2.5 concentration with a cumulative lag of 0-7 days, we estimated an increase of 0.50 % (95 % CI: 0.29, 0.72), 0.63 % (95 % CI: 0.38, 0.88), and 0.50 % (95 % CI: 0.01, 1.01) in pooled estimates of non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Both PM10 and PM2.5 were associated with significant increases in non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality with a cumulative lag of 0-14 days. We observed mortality displacement within 30 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that risk assessment based on single-day or 2-day moving average lag structures may underestimate the adverse effects of PM pollution. The cumulative effects of PM exposure on non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality can last up to 14 days. Evidence of mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths was found.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/toxicidade , Poluição do Ar/análise , Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Exposição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Mortalidade , Material Particulado/análise , Material Particulado/toxicidade
5.
Am J Public Health ; 112(1): 165-168, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34936401

RESUMO

Objectives. To test whether distortions in the age distribution of deaths can track pandemic activity. Methods. We compared weekly distributions of all-cause deaths by age during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States from March to December 2020 with corresponding prepandemic weekly baseline distributions derived from data for 2015 to 2019. We measured distortions via Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) and χ2 goodness-of-fit statistics as well as deaths among individuals aged 65 years or older as a percentage of total deaths (PERC65+). We computed bivariate correlations between these measures and the number of recorded COVID-19 deaths for the corresponding weeks. Results. Elevated COVID-19-associated fatalities were accompanied by greater distortions in the age structure of mortality. Distortions in the age distribution of weekly US COVID-19 deaths in 2020 relative to earlier years were highly correlated with COVID fatalities (K-S: r = 0.71, P < .001; χ2: r = 0.90, P < .001; PERC65+: r = 0.85, P < .001). Conclusions. A population-representative sample of age-at-death data can serve as a useful means of pandemic activity surveillance when precise cause-of-death data are incomplete, inaccurate, or unavailable, as is often the case in low-resource environments. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):165-168. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306567).


Assuntos
COVID-19/mortalidade , Mortalidade , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estatística como Assunto , Estatísticas não Paramétricas , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
6.
Am J Public Health ; 112(1): 154-164, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34936406

RESUMO

Objectives. To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on overall, race/ethnicity‒specific, and age-specific mortality in 2020 in the United States. Methods. Using surveillance data, we modeled expected mortality, compared it to observed mortality, and estimated the share of "excess" mortality that was indirectly attributable to the pandemic versus directly attributed to COVID-19. We present absolute risks and proportions of total pandemic-related mortality, stratified by race/ethnicity and age. Results. We observed 16.6 excess deaths per 10 000 US population in 2020; 84% were directly attributed to COVID-19. The indirect effects of the pandemic accounted for 16% of excess mortality, with proportions as low as 0% among adults aged 85 years and older and more than 60% among those aged 15 to 44 years. Indirect causes accounted for a higher proportion of excess mortality among racially minoritized groups (e.g., 32% among Black Americans and 23% among Native Americans) compared with White Americans (11%). Conclusions. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality and health disparities are underestimated when only deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 are considered. An equitable public health response to the pandemic should also consider its indirect effects on mortality. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):154-164. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306541).


Assuntos
COVID-19/mortalidade , Mortalidade , Estatística como Assunto , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Humanos , Lactente , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Risco , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
7.
Environ Res ; 204(Pt A): 111992, 2022 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34487697

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: An indirect adjustment method was developed to control for unmeasured confounders in a large administrative cohort study. A previous study that proposed the indirect adjustment method assessed the validity of the method by simulations but did not consider the direction of bias and scenarios with multiple missing confounders. In this study, we evaluated the direction and the magnitude of bias of the indirect adjustment method with multiple correlated unmeasured confounders using simulation and empirical datasets. METHODS: A simulation study was conducted to compare the bias of the indirect adjustment by varying the number of confounders, magnitude of correlation between confounders, and the number of adjustment variables. An empirical study was conducted by applying the indirect adjustment method to the association between PM10 and mortality using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey linked Cause of Death data for 2007-2016. RESULTS: The simulations of the present study demonstrated that 1) when a confounder is positively associated with both exposure and outcome, indirect adjustment might bias the effect size downward; 2) the magnitude of bias might depend on the correlation between unmeasured confounders; and 3) indirect adjustment for multiple missing confounders at once could result in a higher bias than that for some of the missing confounders. Empirical analyses also showed consistent results, but the bias of indirectly adjusted effect estimates was sometimes larger than that of unadjusted effect estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The indirect adjustment method is a promising technique to reduce the bias from unmeasured confounding; however, it should be implemented carefully, particularly when there are multiple correlated unmeasured confounders of the same direction.


Assuntos
Fatores de Confusão Epidemiológicos , Mortalidade , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Viés , Estudos de Coortes , Simulação por Computador , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Humanos , Inquéritos Nutricionais , República da Coreia , Projetos de Pesquisa
8.
Environ Res ; 204(Pt A): 111895, 2022 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34437852

RESUMO

This paper analyses the probabilistic future behaviour of heat-waves (HWs) in the city of Madrid in the twenty-first century, using maximum daily temperatures from twenty-one climate circulation models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5 & RCP 4.5). HWs are modelled considering three factors: number per annum, duration and intensity, characterised by three stochastic processes: Poisson, Gamma and truncated Gaussian, respectively. Potential correlations between these processes are also considered. The probabilistic temperature behaviour is combined with an epidemiological model with stochastic mortality risk following a generalized extreme value distribution (gev). The objective of this study is to obtain probability distributions of mortality and risk measures such as the mean value of the 5% of worst cases in the 21st century, in particular from 2025 to 2100. Estimates from stochastic models for characterising HWs and epidemiological impacts on human health can vary from one climate model to another, so relying on a single climate model can be problematic. For this reason, the calculations are carried out for 21 models and the average of the results is obtained. A sensitivity adaptation analysis is also performed. Under RCP 8.5 for 2100 for Madrid city a mean excess of 3.6 °C over the 38 °C temperature threshold is expected as the average of all models, with an expected attributable mortality of 1614 people, but these figures may be substantially exceeded in some cases if the highest-risk cases occur.


Assuntos
Temperatura Alta , Adaptação Fisiológica , Mudança Climática , Humanos , Mortalidade
9.
Dis Colon Rectum ; 65(1): 16-26, 2022 01 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34636780

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Combined treatment modality of cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy is emerging as an alternative option for colorectal peritoneal metastases, but there is ambiguity regarding patient selection, treatment protocols, and efficacy. OBJECTIVE: To elaborate on the patient characteristics, hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy protocol and health outcomes in colorectal peritoneal metastases patients undergoing a combination of hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy and cytoreductive surgery and provide guidance for future studies. DATA SOURCES: A Medline search for English language studies published between 2004 and 2019. STUDY SELECTION: Medical subject headings and key terms, including: hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy, colorectal peritoneal metastases, colorectal cancer and combinations thereof as per guidelines. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall survival, disease-free survival, and morbidity and mortality rates. RESULTS: Of the 26 included studies, 42% were published between 2016 and 2019. More than half of the studies were retrospective in nature and conducted in tertiary specialized centers outside of the United States. The median age range was 44 to 62 years. Mitomycin C-based therapy was seen in 50% of studies. Mean weighted median disease-free survival for 11 studies was 15 months (9 to 36 months). Median OS ranged from 12 to 63 months, with an average of 33.6 months among 20 studies. Overall morbidity varied from 11% to 56%, with a weighted mean of 29% in 18 studies. Mortality ranged from 0 to 34%, with a weighted mean of 4% in 15 studies. LIMITATIONS: Despite careful study selection, variability in methodology of the included studies can limit review findings. CONCLUSION: Due to study heterogeneity, and a recent large, randomized trial showing no overall benefit, use of cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy in colorectal peritoneal metastases patients is highly controversial. Further standardized controlled studies can help uniformly define and build consensus among the medical community on patient eligibility and the optimal hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy techniques. PROSPERO: Registered on March 3, 2020, CRD42020146942.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/secundário , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos de Citorredução/métodos , Quimioterapia Intraperitoneal Hipertérmica/métodos , Metástase Neoplásica/terapia , Peritônio/patologia , Adulto , Antibióticos Antineoplásicos/administração & dosagem , Antibióticos Antineoplásicos/uso terapêutico , Neoplasias Colorretais/cirurgia , Neoplasias Colorretais/terapia , Terapia Combinada , Intervalo Livre de Doença , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mitomicina/administração & dosagem , Mitomicina/uso terapêutico , Morbidade/tendências , Mortalidade/tendências , Metástase Neoplásica/patologia , Avaliação de Resultados em Cuidados de Saúde , Peritônio/efeitos dos fármacos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
10.
Int J Cancer ; 150(1): 67-72, 2022 01 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34431525

RESUMO

The growing population of long-term childhood cancer survivors is at increased risk for severe, therapy-related late effects and premature mortality. The cardiac and vascular late sequelae in long-term survivors of childhood cancer (CVSS) study is a cohort of patients from Germany diagnosed with a neoplasia prior to 15 years of age in the time period 1980 to 1990. Late mortality was evaluated in a total of 4505 individuals who survived 5 years or more after the initial diagnosis (5-year survivors). Survivors with a second primary tumor were excluded. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated. By December 2014, 400 patients had died. Available cause of death information from 188 individuals was used to estimate cause-specific mortality for all deceased persons. Compared to the population of (former) West Germany, we observed an excess overall mortality risk (SMR = 9.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 8.62-10.51). After correcting for missing cause of death information, an increased cancer mortality (SMR = 43.50, 95% CI = 25.79-73.50) in the 5-year survivors was detected. Cardiac death was ascertained in 14 individuals, resulting in an SMR of 10.85 (95% CI = 2.80-32.02) after correcting for missing values. In conclusion, childhood cancer survivors diagnosed in Germany in 1980 to 1990 have a higher mortality risk overall and an elevated risk of dying from cancer and cardiac causes in particular. The results are consistent with those of international cohort studies. However, the reported results are based on few cases and individuals with secondary cancers were excluded.


Assuntos
Sobreviventes de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Causas de Morte , Mortalidade/tendências , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Progressão da Doença , Feminino , Seguimentos , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Neoplasias/patologia , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Taxa de Sobrevida , Fatores de Tempo , Adulto Jovem
11.
Int J Cancer ; 150(1): 28-37, 2022 01 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34449879

RESUMO

Despite improved survival rates, cancer remains one of the most common causes of childhood death. The International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) showed variation in cancer survival for adults. We aimed to assess and compare trends over time in cancer mortality between children, adolescents and young adults (AYAs) and adults in the six countries involved in the ICBP: United Kingdom, Denmark, Australia, Canada, Norway and Sweden. Trends in mortality between 2001 and 2015 in the six original ICBP countries were examined. Age standardised mortality rates (ASR per million) were calculated for all cancers, leukaemia, malignant and benign central nervous system (CNS) tumours, and non-CNS solid tumours. ASRs were reported for children (age 0-14 years), AYAs aged 15 to 39 years and adults aged 40 years and above. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) in mortality rates per country were estimated using Joinpoint regression. For all cancers combined, significant temporal reductions were observed in all countries and all age groups. However, the overall AAPC was greater for children (-2.9; 95% confidence interval = -4.0 to -1.7) compared to AYAs (-1.8; -2.1 to -1.5) and adults aged >40 years (-1.5; -1.6 to -1.4). This pattern was mirrored for leukaemia, CNS tumours and non-CNS solid tumours, with the difference being most pronounced for leukaemia: AAPC for children -4.6 (-6.1 to -3.1) vs AYAs -3.2 (-4.2 to -2.1) and over 40s -1.1 (-1.3 to -0.8). AAPCs varied between countries in children for all cancers except leukaemia, and in adults over 40 for all cancers combined, but not in subgroups. Improvements in cancer mortality rates in ICBP countries have been most marked among children aged 0 to 14 in comparison to 15 to 39 and over 40 year olds. This may reflect better care, including centralised service provision, treatment protocols and higher trial recruitment rates in children compared to older patients.


Assuntos
Benchmarking , Mortalidade/tendências , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Sistema de Registros/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Austrália/epidemiologia , Canadá/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Dinamarca/epidemiologia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Noruega/epidemiologia , Prognóstico , Taxa de Sobrevida , Suécia/epidemiologia , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
12.
J Environ Manage ; 301: 113751, 2022 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34628283

RESUMO

Heat-related mortality is one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the United States. With changing climates and an aging population, effective adaptive strategies to address public health and environmental justice issues associated with extreme heat will be increasingly important. One effective adaptive strategy for reducing heat-related mortality is increasing tree cover. Designing such a strategy requires decision-support tools that provide spatial and temporal information about impacts. We apply such a tool to estimate spatially and temporally explicit reductions in temperature and mortality associated with a 10% increase in tree cover in 10 U.S. cities with varying climatic, demographic, and land cover conditions. Two heat metrics were applied to represent tree impacts on moderately and extremely hot days (relative to historical conditions). Increasing tree cover by 10% reduced estimated heat-related mortality in cities significantly, with total impacts generally greatest in the most populated cities. Mortality reductions vary widely across cities, ranging from approximately 50 fewer deaths in Salt Lake City to about 3800 fewer deaths in New York City. This variation is due to differences in demographics, land cover, and local climatic conditions. In terms of per capita estimated impacts, hotter and drier cities experience higher percentage reductions in mortality due to increased tree cover across the season. Phoenix potentially benefits the most from increased tree cover, with an estimated 22% reduction in mortality from baseline levels. In cooler cities such as Minneapolis, trees can reduce mortality significantly on days that are extremely hot relative to historical conditions and therefore help mitigate impacts during heat wave conditions. Recent studies project highest increases in heat-related mortality in the cooler cities, so our findings have important implications for adaptation planning. Our estimated spatial and temporal distributions of mortality reductions for each city provide crucial information needed for promoting environmental justice and equity. More broadly, the methods and model can be applied by both urban planners and the public health community for designing targeted, effective policies to reduce heat-related mortality. Additionally, land use managers can use this information to optimize tree plantings. Public stakeholders can also use these impact estimates for advocacy.


Assuntos
Temperatura Alta , Árvores , Cidades , Mortalidade , Saúde Pública , Estações do Ano , Estados Unidos
13.
Appl Ergon ; 98: 103608, 2022 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34655965

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Failure to rescue (FTR) denotes mortality from post-operative complications after surgery with curative intent. High-volume, low-mortality units have similar complication rates to others, but have lower FTR rates. Effective response to the deteriorating post-operative patient is therefore critical to reducing surgical mortality. Resilience Engineering might afford a useful perspective for studying how the management of deterioration usually succeeds and how resilience can be strengthened. METHODS: We studied the response to the deteriorating patient following emergency abdominal surgery in a large surgical emergency unit, using the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). FRAM focuses on the conflicts and trade-offs inherent in the process of response, and how staff adapt to them, rather than on identifying and eliminating error. 31 semi-structured interviews and two workshops were used to construct a model of the response system from which conclusions could be drawn about possible ways to strengthen system resilience. RESULTS: The model identified 23 functions, grouped into five clusters, and their respective variability. The FRAM analysis highlighted trade-offs and conflicts which affected decisions over timing, as well as strategies used by staff to cope with these underlying tensions. Suggestions for improving system resilience centred on improving team communication, organisational learning and relationships, rather than identifying and fixing specific system faults. CONCLUSION: FRAM can be used for analysing surgical work systems in order to identify recommendations focused on strengthening organisational resilience. Its potential value should be explored by empirical evaluation of its use in systems improvement.


Assuntos
Mortalidade , Complicações Pós-Operatórias , Humanos
14.
Environ Pollut ; 292(Pt B): 118392, 2022 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34678392

RESUMO

The short-term effects of ambient temperature on mortality have been widely investigated. However, the epidemiological evidence on the long-term effects of temperature on mortality is rare. In present study, we conducted a nationwide quasi-experimental design, which based on a variant of difference-in-differences (DID) approach, to examine the association between long-term exposure to ambient temperature and mortality risk in China, and to analyze the effect modification of population characteristics and socioeconomic status. Data on mortality were collected from 364 communities across China during 2006-2017, and environmental data were obtained for the same period. We estimated a 2.93 % (95 % CI: 2.68 %, 3.18 %) increase in mortality risk per 1 °C decreases in annual temperature, the greater effects were observed on respiratory diseases (5.16 %, 95 % CI: 4.53 %, 5.79 %) than cardiovascular diseases (3.43 %, 95 % CI: 3.06 %, 3.80 %), and on younger people (4.21 %, 95 % CI: 3.73 %, 4.68 %) than the elderly (2.36 %, 95 % CI: 2.06 %, 2.65 %). In seasonal analysis, per 1 °C decreases in average temperature was associated with 1.55 % (95 % CI: 1.23 %, 1.87 %), -0.53 % (95 % CI: -0.89 %, -0.16 %), 2.88 % (95 % CI: 2.45 %, 3.31 %) and 4.21 % (95 % CI: 3.98 %, 4.43 %) mortality change in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. The effects of long-term temperature on total mortality were more pronounced among the communities with low urbanization, low education attainment, and low GDP per capita. In total, the decrease of average temperature in summer decreased mortality risk, while increased mortality risk in other seasons, and the associations were modified by demographic characteristics and socioeconomic status. Our findings suggest that populations with disadvantaged characteristics and socioeconomic status are vulnerable to long-term exposure of temperature, and targeted policies should be formulated to strengthen the response to the health threats of temperature exposure.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Idoso , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/análise , China/epidemiologia , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Humanos , Mortalidade , Estações do Ano , Temperatura
15.
Environ Pollut ; 292(Pt B): 118396, 2022 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34688723

RESUMO

A growing number of studies report associations between air pollution and COVID-19 mortality. Most were ecological studies at the county or regional level which disregard important local variability and relied on data from only the first few months of the pandemic. Using COVID-19 deaths identified from death certificates in California, we evaluated whether long-term ambient air pollution was related to weekly COVID-19 mortality at the census tract-level during the first ∼12 months of the pandemic. Weekly COVID-19 mortality for each census tract was calculated based on geocoded death certificate data. Annual average concentrations of ambient particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5) and <10 µm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) over 2014-2019 were assessed for all census tracts using inverse distance-squared weighting based on data from the ambient air quality monitoring system. Negative binomial mixed models related weekly census tract COVID-19 mortality counts to a natural cubic spline for calendar week. We included adjustments for potential confounders (census tract demographic and socioeconomic factors), random effects for census tract and county, and an offset for census tract population. Data were analyzed as two study periods: Spring/Summer (March 16-October 18, 2020) and Winter (October 19, 2020-March 7, 2021). Mean (standard deviation) concentrations were 10.3 (2.1) µg/m3 for PM2.5, 25.5 (7.1) µg/m3 for PM10, 11.3 (4.0) ppb for NO2, and 42.8 (6.9) ppb for O3. For Spring/Summer, adjusted rate ratios per standard deviation increase were 1.13 (95% confidence interval: 1.09, 1.17) for PM2.5, 1.16 (1.11, 1.21) for PM10, 1.06 (1.02, 1.10) for NO2, and 1.09 (1.04, 1.14) for O3. Associations were replicated in Winter, although they were attenuated for PM2.5 and PM10. Study findings support a relation between long-term ambient air pollution exposure and COVID-19 mortality. Communities with historically high pollution levels might be at higher risk of COVID-19 mortality.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , COVID-19 , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/análise , California/epidemiologia , Exposição Ambiental , Humanos , Mortalidade , Dióxido de Nitrogênio/análise , Material Particulado/análise , SARS-CoV-2
16.
Environ Res ; 203: 111834, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34358501

RESUMO

Age-specific discrepancy of mortality burden attributed to temperature, measured as years of life lost (YLL), has been rarely investigated. We investigated age-specific temperature-YLL rates (per 100,000) relationships and quantified YLL per death caused by non-optimal temperature in China. We collected daily meteorological data, population data and daily death counts from 364 locations in China during 2006-2017. YLL was divided into three age groups (0-64 years, 65-74 years, and ≥75 years). A distributed lag non-linear model was first employed to estimate the associations of temperature with age-specific YLL rates in each location. Then we pooled the associations using a multivariate meta-analysis. Finally, we calculated age-specific average YLL per death caused by temperature by cause of death and region. We observed greater effects of cold and hot temperature on YLL rates for the elderly compared with the young population by region or cause of death. However, YLL per death due to non-optimal temperature for different regions or causes of death decreased with age, with 2.0 (95 % CI:1.5, 2.5), 1.2 (1.1, 1.4) and 1.0 years (0.9, 1.2) life loss per death for populations aged 0-64 years, 65-74 years and over 75 years, respectively. Most life loss per death results from moderate temperature, especially moderate cold for all age groups. The effect of non-optimal temperature on YLL rates is smaller for younger populations than older ones, while the temperature-related life loss per death was more prominent for younger populations.


Assuntos
Temperatura Baixa , Temperatura Alta , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade , Temperatura , Adulto Jovem
17.
Infectio ; 25(4): 262-269, oct.-dic. 2021. tab, graf
Artigo em Inglês | LILACS, COLNAL | ID: biblio-1286720

RESUMO

Abstract Objective: To analyse the clinic characteristics, risk factors and evolution of the first cohort of hospitalised patients with confirmed infection by COVID-19 in 5 Colombian institutions. Materials and methods: Is a retrospective observational study of consecutive hospitalized patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed from March 01 to May 30, 2020 in Colombia. Results: A total of 44 patients were included. The median age was 62 years. 43.2% had a history of smoking, while 69.8% were overweight or obese. 88.6% had at least one comorbidity and 52.3% had three or more comorbidities. Hypertension and dyslipidaemia were the most frequent comorbidities (40.9% and 34.1%, respectively). The 30-day mortality rate was 47.7% with a median of 11 days. The composite outcome occurred in the 36.4%. The biomarkers associated with mor tality risk included troponin higher than 14 ng/L (RR: 5.25; 95% CI 1.37-20.1, p = 0.004) and D-dimer higher than 1000 ng/ml (RR: 3.0; 95% CI 1.4-6.3, p = 0.008). Conclusions: The clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospitalized Colombian was characterised by a more advanced stage of the infection.


Resumen Objetivo: Analizar las características, clínicas, factores de riesgo, y la evolución de pacientes hospitalizados con infección confirmada por COVID-19 en 5 Institu ciones de Colombia. Material y método: Es un estudio observacional retrospectivo de pacientes consecutivos hospitalizados con diagnóstico de COVID-19 confirmado entre 01 de Febrero de 2020 y 30 de Mayo de 2020 en Colombia. Resultados: Un total de 44 pacientes fueron incluidos. La mediana de edad fue de 62 años y la mayoría del sexo masculino. El 43.2% tenían historia de tabaquismo, mientras que el 69.8% tenían sobrepeso u obesidad. El 88.6% tenían al menos una comorbilidad y el 52.3% tenían tres o más comorbilidades. La hipertensión arterial fue la comorbilidad más frecuente (40.9%), seguido de la dislipidemia (34.1%). La tasa de letalidad a 30 días fue de 47.7% y ocurrió con una mediana de 11 días. El 36.4% presentó el desenlace compuesto. Los biomarcadores asociados con el riesgo de muerte fue troponina > 14 ng/mL (RR:5.25, IC95% 1.37-20.1, p=0.004) y dímero D mayor a 1000 mg/dL (RR: 3.0, IC95% 1.4-6.3, p=0.008). Conclusiones: El curso clínico de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 en colombianos hospitalizados fue un estadio más avanzado de la infección.


Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Biomarcadores , COVID-19 , Pacientes , Tabagismo , Comorbidade , Risco , Fatores de Risco , Mortalidade , Colômbia , Sobrepeso , Cursos , Infecções , Obesidade
18.
Infectio ; 25(4): 212-240, oct.-dic. 2021. tab, graf
Artigo em Inglês | LILACS, COLNAL | ID: biblio-1286716

RESUMO

Abstract Intra-abdominal infections are frequent at all levels of health care, therefore, it is necessary to maintain a high level of clinical suspicion, performing the fastest and most cost-effective measures to confirm the diagnosis and offer a precise and targeted multidisciplinary therapy, this being the only way to have an impact on the morbidity of this infection, reducing mortality and minimizing the complications and costs of health care. Intra-abdominal infections are linked to the appearance and selection of resistant mutants in both bacteria and fungi, becoming currently a major public health problem. Increasing bacterial resistance when associated with a greater possibility of difficulties in antimicrobial treatment increases mortality. This evidence-based consensus brings together the recommendations for the diagnosis and treatment of intra-abdominal infections in the pediatric and adult population. With strict monitoring of bacterial resistance and stimulating the control of the risk factors that have the greatest impact on the appearance of this phenomenon, this consensus is intended to be a practical guide that is easy to implement, and with periodic updates it will favor and facilitate multidisciplinary and the adequacy of the therapeutic management of intra-abdominal infections.


Resumen Las infecciones intrabdominales son frecuentes en todos los niveles de atención en salud, por ende, es necesario mantener un alto nivel de sospecha clínica, realizando las medidas más rápidas y costoefectivas para confirmar el diagnóstico y así ofrecer de una forma precisa y dirigida la terapéutica multidisciplinaria, siendo esta la única manera de tener impacto en la morbilidad de esta infección, disminuyendo la mortalidad y minimizando las complicaciones y los costos de la atención en salud. Las infecciones intrabdominales se encuentran ligadas a la aparición y selección de las mutantes resistentes tanto en las bacterias como en los hongos, convirtiéndose en la actualidad en una gran problemática en la salud pública. La creciente resistencia bacteriana al asociarse a mayor posibilidad de dificultades en el tratamiento antimicrobiano incrementa la mortalidad. Este consenso basado en la evidencia, reúne las recomendaciones en el diagnóstico y en el tratamiento de las infecciones intrabdominales en la población pediátrica y de adultos. Con un estricto seguimiento de la resistencia bacteriana y estimulando el control de los factores de riesgo que tienen mas impacto en la aparición de este fenómeno, este consenso pretende ser una practica guía de fácil implementación, y con periódicas actualizaciones favorecerá y facilitará el manejo multidisciplinario y la adecuación del manejo terapéutico de las infecciones intrabdominales.


Assuntos
Humanos , Criança , Adulto , Infecções Intra-Abdominais , Peritonite , Bactérias , Fatores de Risco , Mortalidade , Colômbia , Sepse , Atenção à Saúde , Infecções , Antibacterianos
19.
Infectio ; 25(4): 207-211, oct.-dic. 2021. tab, graf
Artigo em Espanhol | LILACS, COLNAL | ID: biblio-1286715

RESUMO

Resumen Objetivo: Describir la proporción, características clínicas, demográficas y programáticas de casos fatales de coinfección TB/VIH de Cali-Colombia, en 2017. Material y Método: Estudio de corte transversal, con información de las bases de datos del programa de tuberculosis, las historias clínicas y unidades de análisis de mortalidad disponibles. Resultados: Se depuraron 257 casos fatales por TB, el 24,5% (63/257) falleció con coinfección TB/VIH. La mediana de edad fue 43 años (Rango Intercuartílico: 30-52), 73% (46/63) eran hombres, 76,2% (48/63) no pertenecían al régimen contributivo, 28,6% eran habitantes de calle. 81,2% (39/48) eran casos nuevos de TB, 76,6% (37/47), inició tratamiento; al 74,6% (47/63) se les realizó unidad de análisis de mortalidad. La presentación pulmonar fue frecuente (75,9%-44/58), en 60% de los registros se observó desnutrición (Índice de Masa Corporal <20), en 39,7% (25/63) dependencia al alcohol, tabaco o farmacodependencia. Conclusiones: La mortalidad asociada a TB/VIH es prevenible, pero en 2017 representó la cuarta parte de la mortalidad por TB en Cali. Hombres adultos con condiciones de vulnerabilidad social, diagnosticados en estados avanzados de enfermedad, fueron blanco de fatalidad. Mejorar los sistemas de información e integrar los programas de TB/VIH, deben ser estrategias prioritarias para la salud pública en Colombia.


Abstract Objective: To describe the proportion, clinical, demographic and programmatic characteristics of fatal cases of TB/HIV coinfection from Cali-Colombia, in 2017. Material and Method: Cross-sectional study, with information from the TB program databases, clinical records and mortality analysis units available. Results: 257 TB fatal cases were cleared in Cali in 2017, 24.5% (63/257) of these died with TB/HIV coinfection. The median age was 43 years (Interquartile Range: 30-52), 73% (46/63) were men, 76.2% (48/63) did not belong to the contributory health regimen, 28.6% were homeless. 81.2% (39/48) were new TB cases, 76.6% (37/47) started treatment; 74.6% (47/63) had mortality analysis register. Pulmonary presentation was frequent (75.9% -44 / 58), in 60% of the registries malnutrition was observed (Body Mass Index <20), in 39.7% (25/63), dependence on alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence was registered. Conclusions: Mortality associated with TB/HIV is preventable, but in 2017 it represented a quarter of the TB mortality in Cali. Adult men with conditions of social vulnerability, diagnosed in advanced stages of disease, were fatally targeted. Improving information systems and integrating TB/HIV programs should be priority strategies for public health in Colombia.


Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Tuberculose , HIV , Índice de Massa Corporal , Infecções por HIV , Saúde Pública , Estudos Transversais , Mortalidade , Estratégias de Saúde , Colômbia , Vulnerabilidade Social , Desnutrição
20.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 23963, 2021 12 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34907208

RESUMO

We demonstrate that finite impulse response (FIR) models can be applied to analyze the time evolution of an epidemic with its impact on deaths and healthcare strain. Using time series data for COVID-19-related cases, ICU admissions and deaths from Sweden, the FIR model gives a consistent epidemiological trajectory for a simple delta filter function. This results in a consistent scaling between the time series if appropriate time delays are applied and allows the reconstruction of cases for times before July 2020, when RT-PCR testing was not widely available. Combined with randomized RT-PCR study results, we utilize this approach to estimate the total number of infections in Sweden, and the corresponding infection-to-fatality ratio (IFR), infection-to-case ratio (ICR), and infection-to-ICU admission ratio (IIAR). Our values for IFR, ICR and IIAR are essentially constant over large parts of 2020 in contrast with claims of healthcare adaptation or mutated virus variants importantly affecting these ratios. We observe a diminished IFR in late summer 2020 as well as a strong decline during 2021, following the launch of a nation-wide vaccination program. The total number of infections during 2020 is estimated to 1.3 million, indicating that Sweden was far from herd immunity.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Mortalidade/tendências , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , COVID-19/mortalidade , Teste de Ácido Nucleico para COVID-19 , Análise de Elementos Finitos , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Suécia/epidemiologia , Fatores de Tempo
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