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1.
Support Care Cancer ; 32(11): 764, 2024 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39485605

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Climate disasters and climate change have implications for healthcare globally. As the number and intensity of climate disasters increase, it is important to understand the effects on healthcare. We conducted a global survey of oncology healthcare providers to identify awareness, experiences, and educational needs related to climate change. METHODS: An existing climate and health survey was adapted to oncology. This IRB- approved, 30-item survey measured demographics, climate disaster awareness, effects on cancer care and educational needs. Healthcare professionals employed in oncology settings (practice, research, or academic) were eligible. The survey was disseminated via social media and professional organizations. Descriptive statistics were computed using SPSS. RESULTS: 154 responses from 26 countries were received from nurses (56%), physicians (19%), and other healthcare professionals (25%). Common climate change-related events impacting oncology care were extreme heat (63.8%) and heavy rains (52.2%). Respondents reported their workplace has a disaster plan for climate-related weather events (50.4%) or has taken steps to prepare for a climate-related weather event (48.5%). Respondents were aware that the planet has warmed significantly (98.7%), that healthcare contributes to greenhouse gas emissions (98.6%) and reported wanting to learn more about how climate change affects cancer care (88.3%). Preferred educational modalities include webinars (69%), e-learning (55%), journal articles (48.3%), conferences (46.3%) and podcasts (38.9%). CONCLUSIONS: This global survey is the first to identify the awareness, experiences, and educational needs of oncology healthcare professionals related to climate change and climate disasters. Healthcare providers are positioned to take leadership roles related to climate and health.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Pessoal de Saúde , Oncologia , Humanos , Pessoal de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Pessoal de Saúde/psicologia , Inquéritos e Questionários , Oncologia/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Feminino , Desastres , Neoplasias/terapia , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Saúde Global , Planejamento em Desastres
2.
J Vet Med Educ ; 51(3): 283-291, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39500504

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic challenged critical services to maintain operations while facing a highly transmissible human pathogen. As public health officials worked to manage the crisis, initial guidelines focused on the continuation of services in the human health care setting. However, through state-mandated stay-at-home orders, the Michigan State University veterinary teaching hospital remained open to provide emergency services to both large and small animal patients. This was accomplished by distilling pertinent safety information from the available human health care guidance to safely maintain operation. Challenges faced when pivoting the delivery of veterinary education from in-person to virtual format were addressed and in-person clinical rotations were resumed as soon as possible. Strategies to effectively communicate information that is both immediately critical and broadly applicable should be considered and planned before they are needed. Infection control and disaster management plans should be revisited often to ensure they include all known risks and potential challenges. Plans to maintain staffing capacity and student safety when faced with an unexpected surge in patients should be laid out with clearly defined metrics on which to act. The lessons we have learned from the pandemic would improve the delivery of care and teaching in a veterinary teaching hospital in both day-to-day circumstances and future emergencies.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Educação em Veterinária , Hospitais Veterinários , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Michigan , Animais , Hospitais de Ensino/organização & administração , Planejamento em Desastres , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Controle de Infecções/métodos
3.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 24(1): 1331, 2024 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39487444

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: First responders, when arriving at a disaster, need a rapid analysis of the environment in which they are going to operate, as they have to assess the conditions surrounding potential victims and neutralize any risks that may exist.The EU-funded INTREPID develops a new technology platform to assist first responders when arriving on the scene of a disaster. The project INTREPID aims to support safer operations in the form of more efficient, fast, and safe disaster site assessments. The objective of the study is to implement new technologies into rescue operations to facilitate and improve situational awareness and operation management capabilities to save lives. The focus of the study is relevant to the field of mass casualty incident management and disaster, as proper communication is extremely relevant in the management of catastrophes. METHOD: The first phase of the project started with a qualitative methodology SCRUM, for catching the end user's feedback and requirements to design the interface platform. It was developed a platform to support first responders in disasters areas improving the 3D scanning and analysis of disaster areas. This platform is based on the concepts of intelligence amplification and eXtended Reality, with hololens, drones and robots. The project continued with a ß phase in which the platform with all tools integrated were tested in simulated mass casualty disasters. RESULTS: These technologies are tested in different disaster scenarios: A flooded subway stop in Stockholm, an accident in the chemical industry in Marseille, and a man-made explosion in a hospital in Madrid. Through this platform, first responders can immediately initiate operations without exposing personnel to potential harmful risks without specialized equipment, with all important information shared and coordinated, among all responders, whether they are security, firefighters, or emergency health professionals. CONCLUSIONS: The performance pilots and the questionnaire results validated the effectiveness and usability of the final version of the INTREPID platform and tools.


Assuntos
Planejamento em Desastres , Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Incidentes com Feridos em Massa , Humanos , Planejamento em Desastres/organização & administração , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos
4.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep ; 18: e247, 2024 Nov 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39494595

RESUMO

This study aimed to examine the effect of disaster preparedness literacy on individual disaster resilience and related factors. The universe of the research consists of individuals between the ages of 18-52. Software packages AMOS 23 and SPSS 26 were used to analyze the study's data. Mann Whitney U test and Kruskal Wallis H test were used for non-parametric variables, whereas the T test and ANOVA were used for parametric variables. The associations between variables were investigated using correlation analysis and basic linear regression analysis. According to the findings, as disaster literacy increases, individual disaster resilience increases. The individual disaster resilience level of males was higher than that of females, the individual disaster resilience level of married individuals was higher than that of single individuals, and those who have experienced a disaster before have a higher level of individual disaster resilience than those who haven't experienced a disaster. Males have higher levels of disaster literacy than females. Married individuals have higher disaster literacy levels than singles. As the age increases, the level of individual disaster resilience and disaster literacy increases. It is considered important to develop community-based disaster awareness training programs and strategies to increase individual disaster resilience.


Assuntos
Resiliência Psicológica , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adolescente , Inquéritos e Questionários , Defesa Civil/métodos , Defesa Civil/estatística & dados numéricos , Defesa Civil/normas , Alfabetização/estatística & dados numéricos , Alfabetização/psicologia , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos
5.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep ; 18: e251, 2024 Nov 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39494975

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to determine the relationships between nurses' competency, motivation, and stress levels in disaster management, as well as to shed light on the establishment of effective disaster management programs. METHODS: In our research we used a correlational, descriptive, cross-sectional design. The sample of the study was composed of 498 nurses working in Turkey. The "Descriptive and Professional Characteristics and Disaster Experiences of Nurses" form, the "Competencies for Disaster Nursing Management Questionnaire," the "Perceived Stress Scale," and the "Nurses Job Motivation Scale" were used in data collection. RESULTS: Nurses' disaster management competency and motivation levels were found to be adequate, and their stress levels were found to be moderate. A weak positive correlation was found between disaster management competency and motivation, but a weak negative correlation was found between stress levels. Age, education level, experience level, training in disaster nursing, and knowledge of duties and responsibilities in disasters were associated with significant differences in terms of disaster competency and its dimensions, motivation, and stress levels. CONCLUSIONS: The study found that nurses' disaster experiences impacted their competency, feeling of preparedness, and stress and motivation levels, and motivation was found to be a predictor of increasing competency.


Assuntos
Motivação , Humanos , Adulto , Estudos Transversais , Turquia , Feminino , Masculino , Inquéritos e Questionários , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos , Competência Clínica/normas , Competência Clínica/estatística & dados numéricos , Estresse Psicológico/psicologia , Estresse Psicológico/etiologia , Enfermeiras e Enfermeiros/psicologia , Enfermeiras e Enfermeiros/estatística & dados numéricos
6.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep ; 18: e250, 2024 Nov 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39494989

RESUMO

Health care and health security are the fundamental pillars of disaster preparedness and crisis management. An established routine health care is necessary for any society, enabling full access to care and fulfilling the rights of every individual. Health security, on the other hand, is what a society needs to be flexible in managing an unexpected situation. To overcome a disaster with minimal damage or to avert such a critical situation, health care and health security should exist simultaneously. Thus, resilience in disaster preparedness and crisis management requires investment in both health care and health security. This ensures local public health services and infrastructure, local ambulances, both acute and chronic care referral systems, prompt vaccinations, and prevention of communicable diseases to name but a few. These measures which have proven to be the most sensitive evaluation of fair governance are critically absent in several nations, particularly in areas with long-standing conflicts. Strengthening health care and health security measures are paramount to the maintenance of the health system in peace and recovery of health delivery post-conflict and require political and economic considerations.


Assuntos
Atenção à Saúde , Humanos , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos , Defesa Civil/métodos , Defesa Civil/normas , Saúde Pública/métodos
7.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 25013, 2024 10 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39443549

RESUMO

Major earthquakes have occurred frequently in Japan throughout history, and the 2024 Noto earthquake is no exception. However, such natural disasters differ in some respects, and specific problems related to these events have also become clear. Kanazawa Medical University Hospital, which was the closest university hospital to the disaster area of the 2024 Noto earthquake, played a crucial role in serving the local community in the wake of the earthquake. The first method used to identify disaster-related patients is to tag them when they are examined by a physician. After confirming that a patient was eligible at the disaster-related patient-determination meeting, patients' medical information was extracted from the tag name. A total of 421 disaster-related patients were transported and hospitalized by day 31. Fifty-two (14.4%) and 48 (13.3%) patients were admitted for orthopedic surgery and respiratory medicine, respectively. Forty (11.1%) and 38 (10.5%) patients were admitted to cardiology and nephrology departments, respectively. These four departments account for 49.3% of the total. The number of hospitalized patients in the nephrology and orthopedic surgery departments was high immediately after the 2024 Noto Earthquake. We also describe new hospital-specific initiatives and recommendations to improve Kanazawa Medical University Hospital's system while sharing another hospital experience.


Assuntos
Terremotos , Hospitais Universitários , Humanos , Japão , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Feminino , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos , Idoso
8.
Sci Rep ; 14(1): 25087, 2024 10 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39443574

RESUMO

In Wuerzburg, Germany, a terrorist attack and a killing rampage occurred five years apart (2016 and 2021). Following a structured evaluation of the rescue mission in 2016, a bundle of quality indicators and ten "lessons learned" were defined. Aim of the presented study was to compare the two rescue missions and to critically review the lessons learned from 2016 for their implementation and feasibility. An interdisciplinary and inter-professional group of experts analyzed the data using predefined quality indicators. All lessons defined in 2016 were critically reviewed and qualified as either lessons learned or lessons identified. While seven out of ten lessons were successfully implemented after 2016 (lessons learned), three lessons didn´t work and were recategorized as lessons identified (communication, zoning and the mutual exchange of different tactical approaches). Our results demonstrate that the conclusions drawn in 2016 have helped to improve the performance of the rescue forces in 2021. In addition, the identified lessons are now the basis for further improving emergency and disaster preparedness. It is important to understand, that the process of preparedness improvement is not completed with the definition of lessons identified. These must first be integrated into response plans and then trained intensively. A lesson identified only becomes a lesson learned once it has been successfully applied.


Assuntos
Trabalho de Resgate , Terrorismo , Humanos , Alemanha , Trabalho de Resgate/métodos , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos , Planejamento em Desastres/normas , Indicadores de Qualidade em Assistência à Saúde
9.
JNMA J Nepal Med Assoc ; 62(275): 478-482, 2024 Jun 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39369421

RESUMO

As a seismic hotspot, Nepal has endured many catastrophic earthquakes, including the 2023 Jajarkot quake. These quakes worsen the existing fragilities, resulting in difficulties in accessing healthcare, outbreaks of infectious diseases, mental health problems, and nutritional shortfalls. The article examines the complex web of health consequences, such as infectious and non-infectious diseases and malnutrition, highlighting the need for a global health lens in tackling these issues. It also reveals the long-term health effects, such as mental health disorders and increased disease susceptibility, that emerge after the quake and the importance of enhancing coordination and communication, enforcing building codes, and assisting affected communities in response to the seismic hazards. The article identifies mitigation strategies, community involvement, and international cooperation as key elements in building resilience against future quakes. It discusses the role of climate change in seismic risks and the need for research, innovation, and adaptability in global health interventions, suggesting measures such as strengthening primary healthcare, preventing avoidable health problems through education, and improving supply chains. The article calls for a holistic approach to building resilient health systems, emphasizing community engagement, prevention, and preparedness to protect the health of vulnerable groups in seismic regions.


Assuntos
Terremotos , Saúde Global , Nepal/epidemiologia , Humanos , Mudança Climática , Planejamento em Desastres/organização & administração , Cooperação Internacional , Desnutrição/epidemiologia , Desnutrição/prevenção & controle , Participação da Comunidade/métodos , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde
10.
BMC Emerg Med ; 24(1): 203, 2024 Oct 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39455912

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Preparedness, focused on planning, training, and research, is one of the primary stages of the disaster management cycle. Accordingly, this study was conducted to determine the level of awareness in nursing managers and the preparedness of hospitals for disasters in the hospitals of Sanandaj, the capital of Kurdistan Province. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2023, with a total of 167 Nursing Managers in Sanandaj selected as the research sample using a census approach. Data were collected using a demographic information form, WHO Hospital Emergency Response Checklist, and managers' emergency awareness questionnaire. Data were analyzed using Chi-square tests, Fisher's exact test, independent t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Pearson correlation. Data analysis was performed using SPSS v26 (P < 0.05). FINDINGS: The results indicated that the overall mean score of managers' awareness was 77.89%, categorized as good. The assessment of hospital preparedness showed that the overall emergency preparedness level of hospitals in Sanandaj was 69.23%, considered strong. Among the dimensions of hospital preparedness, the highest score was in the command-and-control dimension at 83.33%, while the lowest was in the human resources dimension at 56.66%. CONCLUSION: The findings indicated a high level of awareness among nursing managers and a strong level of hospital preparedness in Sanandaj. However, improving and enhancing specific dimensions may require targeted educational and organizational approaches.


Assuntos
Planejamento em Desastres , Enfermeiros Administradores , Humanos , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Masculino , Adulto , Irã (Geográfico) , Inquéritos e Questionários , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde
11.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep ; 18: e199, 2024 Oct 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39463307

RESUMO

Public Health is essential to disaster preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery. This has never been more evident than during the COVID-19 pandemic when public health was the disaster response lead. However, students are graduating from accredited schools and colleges of public health with limited or no education in disaster management. This is a crisis unto itself, and it is incumbent upon The Council on Education for Public Health (CEPH) to take immediate action. Public health preparedness should be recognized as a core element in public health curricula, and practical experiences, such as drills and simulations, are necessary to equip students with the confidence and competencies needed in high-stress situations. The need for such preparedness education extends beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. It is a crucial step for creating a resilient and competent public health workforce capable of safeguarding community health in the face of complex and emerging challenges.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Saúde Pública , Humanos , Saúde Pública/métodos , Saúde Pública/normas , Saúde Pública/educação , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos , Planejamento em Desastres/normas , Currículo/normas , Currículo/tendências , Acreditação/métodos , Acreditação/normas , Competência Profissional/normas , Competência Profissional/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias , Educação Profissional em Saúde Pública/métodos , Educação Profissional em Saúde Pública/normas , Educação Profissional em Saúde Pública/organização & administração
12.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep ; 18: e215, 2024 Oct 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39463326

RESUMO

On September 17, 2024, at 15:30 local time, thousands of pagers used by members of a specific party group detonated across Lebanon. As a result of the explosions, 2800 were wounded and 12 lost their lives. Almost two-thirds of the injuries were in the face, eyes, or hands. The Lebanese American University Medical Center received 38 injured and admitted 36 patients, 13 of them to the Intensive care unit. A total of 33 patients needed surgeries. All medical and nursing staff were deployed. The health care workers faced major challenges that night: the severity of the injuries and the unprecedented types of injuries with the same pattern, and the urgent need for ophthalmology and orthopedics within the hospital and across the country. Learning from the Pager Explosion, each hospital should perform assessments of their disaster response plan, develop trainings, and conduct regular exercises in preparation for future disasters.


Assuntos
Explosões , Humanos , Líbano , Explosões/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Adulto , Feminino , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos , Traumatismos por Explosões/terapia
13.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep ; 18: e207, 2024 Oct 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39465598

RESUMO

There are numerous challenges for pet owners in developing countries before, during, and after disasters, comprising poor communication between pet owners and veterinarians for periodic pet check-ups, lack of necessary equipment, lack of proper disaster evacuation training, and a proper shelter to be considered for pets during periods of disasters. In the present letter, a variety of measures and recommendations have been provided, which can be kept in mind throughout the entire disaster management cycle to prevent pet loss.


Assuntos
Planejamento em Desastres , Animais de Estimação , Humanos , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos , Animais , Desastres , Propriedade/estatística & dados numéricos , Países em Desenvolvimento
14.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep ; 18: e225, 2024 Oct 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39465606

RESUMO

There is a need to utilise formal education to ensure and support the effective participation of communities in the disaster risk management process. The negative outcomes of disasters occurring as a result of various disasters in Turkiye show that the society is inadequately prepared. Therefore, the best fight against disasters can be carried out within the scope of formal education activities. In this study, the content and infrastructure of a curriculum for the management of disaster risks at the university level is presented at the conceptual level. Disaster literacy curriculum can contribute to the management of current and future disaster risks. However, there is a need to expand the implementation and measurement of the effectiveness and feasibility of the curriculum as a public health intervention tool. Finally, the support of the national education system needs to be ensured.


Assuntos
Gestão de Riscos , Humanos , Gestão de Riscos/métodos , Currículo/tendências , Alfabetização , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos
16.
Health Secur ; 22(5): 347-352, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39365888

RESUMO

In recent history, outbreaks of high-consequence infectious diseases (HCIDs) have raised health security concerns among the global community. As HCIDs continue to emerge, public health systems around the world experience the burden of implementing adequate preparedness and response measures to ensure the safety and security of their populations. HCID outbreak response efforts have highlighted the need for specialized training in safety and infection prevention and control for frontline workers who may encounter ill patients. The COVID-19 Mission Prep program for National Disaster Medical System personnel and the Deployment Safety Academy for Field Experiences (D-SAFE) program for US Public Health Service officers are 2 examples of virtual training programs that successfully provided foundational education on infection prevention and control and safety as well as deployable just-in-time training during HCID outbreak response efforts. The methods used to develop these training programs can be adopted by other countries to enhance the global outbreak response infrastructure for the next HCID event. The global outbreak response infrastructure demands investments in training as a preparedness measure, which will ultimately lead to safer, more coordinated outbreak response efforts with competent responders.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Defesa Civil/educação , Planejamento em Desastres , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Pessoal de Saúde/educação , Saúde Pública/educação , Saúde Global , Estados Unidos
17.
BMC Emerg Med ; 24(1): 204, 2024 Oct 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39465369

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: An earthquake has significant effects on health and livelihood of people. It is important to identify health needs and challenges of earthquake victims and use them to prepare for other possible earthquakes. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to explain the challenges and health needs of earthquake victims in Iran. METHODS: This was a qualitative study with 25 participation who were affected by the earthquake in Khoy City, and were selected using purposive sampling by snowball method technique in 2023. The study data was collected through open and semi-structured interviews. To analyze the data, the conventional content analysis with an inductive approach was used. RESULTS: The results show two main categories. The main categories "Management as a missing link in unexpected events" includes 9 subcategories: "The challenge of access to emergency resources and health facilities", "Feeling of abandonment in medical personnel", "Weakness in the structural safety and infrastructure of the health system", "Logistical challenges", "Risk management training", "Crisis response management challenges", "Weakness in the intelligent relief system", "Management of secondary incidents", and "Need to provide medical services and disease prevention". Also, the main categories "Emotional actions of people in crisis" consist of 5 subcategories: "Overexcitement", "Psychological vulnerability of children", "Physical complaints caused by stress", "Confusion caused by the lack of reliable information sources" and "Negative effects of living together with several families". CONCLUSION: To help deal with threats and other challenges in the earthquake crisis, countries should try to improve their capacity to manage natural disasters.


Assuntos
Terremotos , Pesquisa Qualitativa , Humanos , Irã (Geográfico) , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Entrevistas como Assunto , Planejamento em Desastres , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Vítimas de Desastres/psicologia , Necessidades e Demandas de Serviços de Saúde , Adulto Jovem
18.
Artigo em Alemão | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39393395

RESUMO

Although evacuations of hospitals are considered rare events, they might be more frequent than often thought. Recent research revealed 158 evacuations of hospitals in the USA within 17 years (mean 9.3/year). Leading causes for evacuations might be natural disasters, technical issues or man-made threats like bomb or active shooter events. Evacuations of hospitals are resource-intensive and might be time-critical. Logistical and coordination challenges for efficient deployment of rescue personnel and material must be met. Management of these situations requires efficient leadership and coordination between hospital employees and rescue organizations such as fire departments or emergency medical services. Therefore, a robust concept for evacuation of hospitals is needed. Our publication describes hospital evacuations and appropriate concepts in Germany.


Assuntos
Serviços Médicos de Emergência , Humanos , Planejamento em Desastres/organização & administração , Serviços Médicos de Emergência/organização & administração , Alemanha , Hospitais , Trabalho de Resgate/organização & administração , Transporte de Pacientes/organização & administração
19.
Nat Commun ; 15(1): 8795, 2024 Oct 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39389983

RESUMO

Tropical cyclones (TCs) displace millions every year. While TCs pose hardships and threaten lives, their negative impacts can be reduced by anticipatory actions like evacuation and humanitarian aid coordination. In addition to weather forecasts, impact forecast enables more effective response by providing richer information on the numbers and locations of people at risk of displacement. We introduce a fully open-source implementation of a globally consistent and regionally calibrated TC-related displacement forecast at low computational costs, combining meteorological forecast with population exposure and respective vulnerability. We present a case study of TC Yasa which hit Fiji in December 2020. We emphasise the importance of considering the uncertainties associated with hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a global uncertainty analysis, which reveals a considerable spread of possible outcomes. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis on all recorded TC displacement events from 2017 to 2020 to understand how the forecast outcomes depend on these uncertain inputs. Our findings suggest that for longer forecast lead times, decision-making should focus more on meteorological uncertainty, while greater emphasis should be placed on the vulnerability of the local community shortly before TC landfall. Our open-source codes and implementations are readily transferable to other users, hazards, and impact types.


Assuntos
Tempestades Ciclônicas , Previsões , Humanos , Previsões/métodos , Fiji/epidemiologia , Incerteza , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos , Clima Tropical
20.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep ; 18: e244, 2024 Oct 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39473368

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) incidents require meticulous preparedness, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study evaluated CBRN response operational flowcharts, tabletop training scenarios methods, and a health sector preparedness assessment tool specific to the MENA region. METHODS: An online Delphi survey engaging international disaster medicine experts was conducted. Content validity indices (CVIs) were used to validate the items. Consensus metrics, including interquartile ranges (IQRs) and Kendall's W coefficient, were utilized to assess the panelists' agreement levels. Advanced artificial intelligence computing methods, including sentiment analysis and machine-learning methods (t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding [t-SNE] and k-means), were used to cluster the consensus data. RESULTS: Forty experts participated in this study. The item-level CVIs for the CBRN response flowcharts, preparedness assessment tool, and tabletop scenarios were 0.96, 0.85, and 0.84, respectively, indicating strong content validity. Consensus analysis demonstrated an IQR of 0 for most items and a strong Kendall's W coefficient, indicating a high level of agreement among the panelists. The t-SNE and k-means identified four clusters with greater European response engagement. CONCLUSIONS: This study validated essential CBRN preparedness and response tools using broad expert consensus, demonstrating their applicability across different geographic areas.


Assuntos
Inteligência Artificial , Técnica Delphi , Oriente Médio , África do Norte , Humanos , Inteligência Artificial/tendências , Inteligência Artificial/normas , Inteligência Artificial/estatística & dados numéricos , Inquéritos e Questionários , Defesa Civil/métodos , Defesa Civil/estatística & dados numéricos , Defesa Civil/normas , Planejamento em Desastres/métodos , Planejamento em Desastres/normas , Planejamento em Desastres/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Masculino , Liberação Nociva de Radioativos/estatística & dados numéricos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto
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