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Decision tree analysis to stratify risk of de novo non-melanoma skin cancer following liver transplantation.
Tanaka, Tomohiro; Voigt, Michael D.
Affiliation
  • Tanaka T; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, 200 Hawkins Drive, Iowa City, IA, USA. tomohiro-tanaka@uiowa.edu.
  • Voigt MD; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, 200 Hawkins Drive, Iowa City, IA, USA.
J Cancer Res Clin Oncol ; 144(3): 607-615, 2018 Mar.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29362916
PURPOSE: Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common de novo malignancy in liver transplant (LT) recipients; it behaves more aggressively and it increases mortality. We used decision tree analysis to develop a tool to stratify and quantify risk of NMSC in LT recipients. METHODS: We performed Cox regression analysis to identify which predictive variables to enter into the decision tree analysis. Data were from the Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) STAR files of September 2016 (n = 102984). RESULTS: NMSC developed in 4556 of the 105984 recipients, a mean of 5.6 years after transplant. The 5/10/20-year rates of NMSC were 2.9/6.3/13.5%, respectively. Cox regression identified male gender, Caucasian race, age, body mass index (BMI) at LT, and sirolimus use as key predictive or protective factors for NMSC. These factors were entered into a decision tree analysis. The final tree stratified non-Caucasians as low risk (0.8%), and Caucasian males > 47 years, BMI < 40 who did not receive sirolimus, as high risk (7.3% cumulative incidence of NMSC). The predictions in the derivation set were almost identical to those in the validation set (r2 = 0.971, p < 0.0001). Cumulative incidence of NMSC in low, moderate and high risk groups at 5/10/20 year was 0.5/1.2/3.3, 2.1/4.8/11.7 and 5.6/11.6/23.1% (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The decision tree model accurately stratifies the risk of developing NMSC in the long-term after LT.
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Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Health context: 1_ASSA2030 Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Skin Neoplasms / Decision Trees / Decision Support Techniques / Liver Transplantation Type of study: Etiology_studies / Health_economic_evaluation / Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limits: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Language: En Journal: J Cancer Res Clin Oncol Year: 2018 Document type: Article

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Health context: 1_ASSA2030 Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Skin Neoplasms / Decision Trees / Decision Support Techniques / Liver Transplantation Type of study: Etiology_studies / Health_economic_evaluation / Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limits: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Language: En Journal: J Cancer Res Clin Oncol Year: 2018 Document type: Article