Burden of climate change on malaria mortality.
Int J Hyg Environ Health
; 221(5): 782-791, 2018 06.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29706437
ABSTRACT
In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1980 and 2010, we find a non-linear relationship between temperature and malaria mortality and estimate that the global optimal temperature threshold beyond which all-age malaria mortality increases is 20.8⯰C, while in the case of child mortality; a significantly lower optimum temperature of 19.3° is estimated. Our results also suggest that this optimal temperature is 28.4⯰C and 26.3⯰C in Africa and Asia, respectively - the continents where malaria is most prevalent. Furthermore, we estimate that child mortality (ages 0-4) is likely to increase by up to 20% in some areas due to climate change by the end of the 21st century.
Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Health context:
2_ODS3
/
3_ND
/
7_ODS3_muertes_prevenibles_nacidos_ninos
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Climate Change
/
Malaria
Limits:
Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Male
/
Newborn
Language:
En
Journal:
Int J Hyg Environ Health
Year:
2018
Document type:
Article