Nomogram for the Prediction of 30-Day Readmission in Acute Pancreatitis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: A prediction model for 30-day readmission in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) was needed. AIMS: To develop a nomogram to predict 30-day readmission in patients with AP and validate the usefulness of serum indicators after discharge for the prediction of 30-day readmission. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study enrolling patients with the first attack of AP. Baseline characteristics, clinical profiles, and serum indicators after discharge were compared. Multivariate logistic regression analysis and a nomogram were employed to determine the independent risk factors for 30-day readmission. RESULTS: A total of 7.32% (121/1653) of the patients were readmitted within 30 days after discharge. Different etiologies (biliary pancreatitis (adjusted odds ratio (AdjOR), 9.63; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.28-72.52; P = 0.028), other causes (AdjOR, 9.37; 95% CI, 1.15-76.12, P = 0.026), mixed causes (AdjOR, 10.76; 95% CI, 1.27-91.35; P = 0.03) compared with alcoholic pancreatitis)), infected pancreatitis necrosis (IPN) (AdjOR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.2-4.42; P = 0.013), total bilirubin level ≥ 20.5 µmol/L (AdjOR, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.23-4.77; P = 0.01), glucose level ≥ 6.1 mmol/L (AdjOR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.16-3.19; P = 0.011), and albumin level < 40 g/L (AdjOR, 4.25; 95% CI, 2.44-7.41; P < 0.001) were independently associated with 30-day readmission. A nomogram incorporating these factors demonstrated good discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Serum indicators after discharge added predictive value compared with clinical variables alone (AUC, 0.78 vs. 0.685; P = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram combining etiology, IPN, and serum indicators after discharge has favorable predictive performance for 30-Day readmission. The close monitoring and reexamination of serum indicators are essential for AP patients at high risk.