Using mortuary and burial data to place COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia within a global context.
Nat Commun
; 14(1): 3840, 2023 06 29.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37380650
ABSTRACT
Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI 2104-4591), representing an 18.5% (95% CrI 13.0-25.2%) increase relative to pre-pandemic levels. Using a dynamical model-based inferential framework, we find that these mortality patterns and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data are in agreement with established COVID-19 severity estimates. Our results support hypotheses that COVID-19 impact in Lusaka during 2020 was consistent with COVID-19 epidemics elsewhere, without requiring exceptional explanations for low reported figures. For more equitable decision-making during future pandemics, barriers to ascertaining attributable mortality in low-income settings must be addressed and factored into discourse around reported impact differences.
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Africa
Language:
En
Journal:
Nat Commun
Year:
2023
Document type:
Article